Lawrencetown Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for Lawrencetown Reef.

First off, it's a pretty bleak start. We've got a solid week of onshore winds and messy, poor surf. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, nothing to write home about. The reef itself is exposed to the swell, but the wind is just ruining everything for days. There's a big gap of nothing but chop and poor conditions from Sunday the 19th right through to the morning of Thursday the 23rd. The swell is there, but it's all wind-affected and ugly.

The 23rd of July brings a proper pulse of south-southwest swell, but it's a double-edged sword. The swell height hits 10ft to 12ft, and the combined energy is a hefty 2040 – that's strong wave energy. The period is 10 seconds, so there's some decent grunt in it. But the wind is a fresh cross-onshore, and the forecast is calling it likely too big for this break. This is expert-only territory, and even then, the wind is going to make it a battle. The afternoon eases a bit, but it's still choppy.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. Friday morning, the 24th of July. The wind drops to a glassy 5 km/h from the east-northeast. The swell is still a solid 8ft from the south-southwest, with that same 10-second period and a very strong combined energy of 1849. The forecast says wind and tide are favorable, but the swell is still predicted to be too big for this reef. This is the one standout in the entire outlook. If you're a seasoned local who knows the reef's limits, this is your window. It's going to be powerful, clean, and the sets will be widely spaced, making it easier to get out. But it's not for the faint-hearted.

The rest of the window is a write-off. Saturday the 25th morning has glassy conditions but the swell drops to 4ft and the energy weakens. The wind is light on Sunday the 26th, but the swell is small and the conditions are average. After that, it's back to onshore junk and tiny waves for the rest of the period. The 3rd of August has a little pulse of 5ft swell, but with a light cross-shore wind and a marginal call, it's not worth chasing.

So, to put it bluntly: the only chance for a decent wave in the next 16 days is that Friday morning, the 24th of July. It's a big, clean, glassy swell, but it's a heavy one for the reef. If you're not up for that, you're looking at a long, blank run.

Rusty.

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