Lawrencetown Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what we’ve got coming up for Lawrencetown Reef. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, to be honest, with a whole lot of nothing before we finally see a glimmer of hope way out in the future.

The overall pattern is pretty flat and messy for the first couple of weeks. We’ve got a long stretch of poor surf conditions from now all the way through to the morning of the 23rd of September. That’s a solid 13-day gap with nothing worth paddling out for, just lots of chop, onshore wind, or tiny waves. For the first few days, we’re dealing with a decent-sized swell up to 10 ft, but the wind is a total mess – 25 mph southerly on Thursday morning, and a strong cross-onshore through the weekend. With the combined swell energy hitting 1031 on Thursday afternoon, there’s plenty of juice, but it’s just blown out and lumpy. That kind of power and poor quality at a reef might actually be more interesting for the kite crowd than for us paddle surfers.

We do get a few cleaner windows around the 11th and 12th when the wind swings cross-off and light, but the swell drops right off to 2 ft to 4 ft. Still, you’d be surfing small, weak waves with energy readings in the double digits – 68 or 42 – so it’s not really a recommendation.

Things stay small and mostly wind-affected right through the middle of the month. There’s a morning of glassy conditions on the 15th, but with only 1 ft swell and a combined energy of 31, you’re barely going to get a ride. Not a standout.

The only true standout in the whole 16-day window is the morning of Wednesday, 23rd of September. Finally, we see something worth circling on the calendar. A clean, glassy morning with a 6 ft swell from ESE, period of 9 seconds, and a combined energy of 497 – that’s moderate to strong energy, and with the reef’s shape and optimal swell direction from the SE this lines up well. The wind is glassy with a slight air (3 mph from NE), which is a massive positive. This is the best on offer by a long shot. The afternoon on the 23rd stays similar in size but picks up a light cross-on, so the morning window is your golden ticket.

Later on the 24th, we get similar 5 ft to 6 ft swell but the wind goes cross-on and it gets choppy, so that clean morning on the 23rd is the real winner. Water temps are about average for the time of year.

So, if you can wait, pencil in that Wednesday morning, 23rd of September. It’s a long-range call, so it’s promising but not a dead certainty. Everything before that is a write-off.

Rusty.

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