Lawrencetown Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s coming up for Lawrencetown Reef.

Overall, this is a pretty grim stretch. The first solid recommendation doesn’t show up until Wednesday the 15th, and even then, it’s a tricky call. There’s a long dry spell before that, and even after, the good windows are few and far between.

The water temperature is sitting at 57°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

The only real standout in the whole 16-day window is the Wednesday morning session on the 15th. We’ve got a building swell from the SSW at 8 ft, with a period of 8 seconds. That’s a decent pulse of energy coming through, with the combined swell energy hitting a strong 1298. The wind is cross-onshore from the SW at 9 mph, which is okay, but the real issue is that this swell is predicted to be too big for the break. The wave comment mentions wind and tide being favorable, but that’s a lot of water for a reef break. This one is for experienced surfers only, and even then, you’ll want to be careful. The period is only 8 seconds, so it’s a short-period wind swell, not a clean groundswell, so expect it to be a bit lumpy and disorganized.

Outside of that, the rest of the forecast is a washout. You’ll see a few small pulses, like on Thursday afternoon the 16th with a 4 ft swell from the SSW and a clean cross-offshore wind from the NW at 6 mph, but the energy is weak (170) and the waves are just surfable, nothing special. Saturday morning the 18th has a similar look with a 4 ft swell and clean cross-offshore wind, but again, marginal. Sunday the 19th morning has some glassy conditions with a tiny 3 ft swell, but it’s just not enough to get excited about.

From the 21st onward, the wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore, the swell is either too small or too short-period, and the wave comment is consistently “poor surf conditions.” There’s a brief moment on Friday morning the 24th with a 6 ft swell from the SE and a cross-shore wind, but it’s still flagged as marginal, and the period is only 7 seconds. Not worth the drive.

So, if you’re keen, your best bet is Wednesday morning the 15th, but only if you’re experienced and ready for a big, messy reef break. For everyone else, you’re probably better off waiting for the next system.

Rusty.

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