Lawrencetown Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again, but this time in feet and Fahrenheit. Let’s break it down for Lawrencetown Reef.

This forecast is a tough one to look at. We’ve got a long, dry spell of tiny, weak swell and messy wind ahead. The water’s sitting at about 55°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year. For the first week and a half, you’re gonna struggle to find anything worth suiting up for. The combined swell energy is mostly low—double digits to low triple digits—and the swell periods are short, so the reef just isn’t getting the juice it needs. Winds are mostly cross-onshore or onshore, keeping the surface choppy and ugly.

From Sunday the 5th through Monday the 13th, it’s basically a bust. Day after day of tiny swell—1 to 5 feet—with mostly poor conditions. There are a few mornings, like Sunday the 5th and Saturday the 11th, that offer cleanish cross-off wind, but the swell is just too small. The best of a bad run is probably Saturday the 11th: a clean 3ft SSW swell with a 7-second period and NW cross-off wind at 9 mph. The combined energy is only 118, so it’s weak, but at least it’s clean. If you’re really jonesing, you could get a few fun little ones that morning.

Then things flip on Tuesday the 14th. That morning we get a 4ft SSW swell with clean offshore N wind at 12 mph—surfable but nothing special. The afternoon is where it gets good: the swell jumps to 7ft from the SSW, with light ENE cross-off wind at 3 mph, and the combined energy hits 349. That’s moderate energy, and the wave comment says “expect good surf conditions.” This is the real standout of the forecast. The swell direction (SSW) lines up well with the optimum SE, and the wind is light. This will be a proper session for anyone who knows the reef.

Now, Wednesday the 15th morning is a whole different story. We’ve got 8ft SSW swell with glassy conditions—absolutely no wind, dead calm. The combined energy is a strong 622, and the wave comment says the wind and tide are favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. For a reef, 8ft is expert territory only. Beginners, stay home. This one’s for the heavy hitters.

After that, it fades fast. The rest of the run from Wednesday afternoon through Monday the 20th is back to small, crappy surf: 1ft to 4ft, onshore or cross-onshore winds, and combined energy under 200. Not worth the drive.

So here’s your takeaway: if you’re a experienced local, mark Tuesday the 14th afternoon and Wednesday the 15th morning. Tuesday’s the solid, fun session. Wednesday morning is for the big-wave crew only. For everyone else, it’s a long, quiet stretch.

Rusty.

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