Lawrencetown Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you — the next couple of weeks are a tough watch for surf around Lawrencetown Reef. We’ve got a long quiet spell to get through before any real energy shows up, and even then the wind and conditions are going to fight us every step of the way. The water’s sitting at 66°F, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year — about 4°F above average, so you can leave the 4/3 wetsuit at home for now.

We start off Monday the 24th with nothing doing — onshore breeze, tiny 3‑foot ESE swell with a short period of 6 seconds and weak combined energy (128). The whole first week is a grind. Tuesday the 25th has a brief window of glassy conditions in the morning but it’s still only 3 feet of weak, short‑period SSE slop — surfable but very ordinary, and not worth paddling out for. Wednesday the 26th sees a bump in swell height to 5 feet from the SE with a better period of 9 seconds and moderate energy (361), but it’s ruined by strong cross‑onshore winds. That trend of lumpy, choppy conditions continues right through to Sunday the 30th, with only a couple of glassy mornings offering tiny, mediocre waves.

Now, look ahead to Monday the 31st of August — here’s a hint of something different. A 1‑foot SSE groundswell rolls in with a very long period of 18 seconds, and combined energy jumps to 204 (moderate). The wind is light and cross‑offshore, keeping it clean. The waves will be small but lined up, and that long period means the reef should handle it nicely — long gaps between sets, easy paddling. Tuesday the 1st of September holds similar clean, cross‑off conditions with groundswell of 2‑2 feet from the SSE, periods of 15‑16 seconds, and energy around 250‑266. It’s not big, but it’s the best we’ve got this fortnight — clean, glassy faces on a reef, and for the experienced surfer who knows the break, there’ll be some fun little waves.

Then the big stuff arrives. Thursday the 3rd of September sees a serious 6‑7‑foot SSE groundswell with a 15‑16 second period and very strong energy (1733‑1981). That’s too big for beginners — only experienced surfers should even look at it. The wind is light cross‑offshore in the morning, but the afternoon has a minor cross‑onshore ripple. Friday the 4th is a write‑off with 8‑10‑foot swell and onshore winds — messy, blown out, and dangerous for anyone not in the top tier. The following Saturday and Sunday drop back to 2‑4 feet but winds stay strong and onshore. By Monday the 7th of September, we’re back to near flat with 0.7‑1 foot.

Overall, the standout window is Monday the 31st of August through Tuesday the 1st of September — small but clean, with that long‑period groundswell offering the best shape of the forecast. Everything else is either too small, too windy, or too big to be enjoyable.

Rusty.

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