Lawrencetown Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be honest with ya, the next couple weeks are gonna test your patience. It’s a long, flat, and frustrating run ahead before we see anything with a pulse. Let’s walk through it.

The forecast starts off with a real dud. Saturday the 8th is ankle-biters, with a weak 2ft SSW swell and a period of just 6 seconds. The energy is weak, at 32, which is nothing. The morning is glassy, which is a tease, but there are no waves. Sunday and Monday aren't any better, with the swell staying under 2ft and energy barely cracking 50. We're looking at a few days of flatness, a real lull.

We'll see a slight nudge mid-week, but it's not worth getting excited over. The mornings on Wednesday and Thursday the 12th and 13th are clean, and there's a little bump from that SSW swell, but the height is still under 3ft. The energy is weak, in the 50s. This is the kind of surf you'd only consider if you were desperate for a paddle. This whole first week is a write-off.

The weekend of the 15th and 16th sees the swell finally push past the 3ft mark, but the quality is still poor. Saturday the 15th has a 4-4ft SSW swell, but it's accompanied by onshore winds that will chop it up. The energy is in the low 200s, which is moderate, but it's a mess. Sunday the 16th is more of the same – 4ft but with a cross-shore wind. It's surfable, but I'd rate it as a miss.

We get a little clean break on Monday the 17th morning with a cross-offshore wind and a 2ft swell, but it's just too small. This is followed by another drop in size for a couple of days, keeping us firmly in the "not worth it" zone.

Now, the only real glimmer of hope in this whole 16-day window arrives on Thursday the 21st. The afternoon brings a 4ft SW groundswell with a period of 8 seconds, and—get this—a light cross-offshore wind. The energy jumps up to a moderate 386, and the call is for "good surf conditions." This is the standout. It’s the only day where the stars align for a decent, clean session at the reef. It won’t be epic, but it’ll be the best we’ve got. It’s a promising long-range call, so take it with a grain of salt. The morning of the 21st is still a bit lumpy, but that afternoon window is the one to plan for.

The next couple days see the swell back off again, with the energy dropping and the winds turning onshore. There's a final flash of glass on Sunday the 23rd morning, but the swell is small, around 3ft, and it just doesn't have the juice.

So, bottom line: if you’re a beginner, most of this period is fine, but there's nothing for you to ride anyway. When the swell does pick up, it’s either too small or too messy. The one day that stands a chance is the afternoon of Thursday the 21st. Keep your eyes on that one, but don’t hold your breath for the rest. These long flat spells are a bit more normal for this area, so it’s just a matter of waiting it out. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty out.

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