Lawrencetown Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the next couple of weeks for this stretch of coast.

First off, the water is running a bit colder than usual for this time of year, about 59° F, so you’ll want the thicker rubber even if the air feels warm. It’s not a crazy anomaly, but it’s noticeable.

The honest truth is, we’re looking at a pretty flat and messy stretch ahead. The first few days are going to be a write-off. Sunday morning (the 2nd) gives us a tiny bit of 3 ft of surf, but the energy is weak at 136. It’s glassy early, which is a small mercy, but it’s slow and unexciting. After that, it drops off fast and gets chopped up by onshore winds through Monday. Don’t even bother.

Then we see a pulse of size arrive on Tuesday the 4th. The swell jumps to 7 ft, and the energy kicks up to 530, which is a solid amount of juice. Problem is, it’s coming in from the SSW and the wind is a fresh, cross-onshore 19 mph. That’s going to turn it into a lumpy, blown-out mess. The size is there, but it’s not going to be pretty. It’s too big and messy for beginners, to be honest. For the experienced crew, it might hold some power, but expect it to be a battle. It’s big enough, but the quality just isn’t there. Honestly, this looks more interesting for the kite surfers than us paddle guys.

After that, we settle back into a long, frustrating stretch of tiny, weak waves with periods under 8 seconds and onshore breezes. From Wednesday the 5th all the way through to Monday the 10th, we’ve got nothing but 2 ft to 5 ft of slop. Every morning and afternoon blends into the next. It’s a real desert out there.

Things stay small but get a little cleaner around Tuesday the 11th and Wednesday the 12th. There’s a bit of WSW wind on Tuesday that is more cross-shore, and the swell gets a little more organized, up to 4 ft. Then on Wednesday morning the 12th, we get a small respite. A light offshore NNW wind is forecast to clean up that leftover 3 ft south swell. It’s still tiny, but it might be the most surfable wave we’ve seen in a week. It’s only worth a mention if you’re desperate.

The next week continues the same theme – small and mostly poor. There is a bigger swell on Sunday the 16th, pushing 6 ft, but it’s short-period windswell with onshore winds. It’s not worth getting excited about.

Finally, there’s a glimmer of something at the very end of the window. On Monday morning, the 17th, the wind turns offshore from the NNW, cleaning up a 4 ft SE swell. The period is up to 8 seconds and the energy is moderate at 258. This looks like the standout of the whole period. It won’t be huge, but with that offshore wind, Lawrencetown Reef itself might actually have a bit of shape to it. This is our best bet, but it’s over a week away, so treat it with caution. The long-range forecast offers promise, but it’s far from a sure thing.

Alright, that’s the long and short of it. Hang tight, wait for that Monday the 17th window, and keep the faith.

Rusty

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