Lawrencetown Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m gonna level with you right off the bat: the next couple of weeks are a proper mixed bag for Lawrencetown Reef, and honestly, it’s gonna be a grind for most of it. We’ve got a week of poor conditions staring us in the face before anything even gets interesting, so don’t rush to wax your board just yet.

The water’s sitting at 61°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year – nothing crazy, but you might get away with a thin spring suit.

For Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th, forget it. We’ve got messy cross-onshore and cross-shore wind in the 12–15 mph range, with waist-high swell at 4–6 ft from the SSW, but the period is a short and weak 7 seconds. The combined energy is weak to moderate (285–270), and the wave comment doesn’t lie: it’s poor. Choppy, lumpy, no good.

Friday the 17th sees a bit of a shift – wind turns cross-offshore from the WNW at 12–15 mph, and the water goes glassy clean in the morning. Swell drops right off though, to 3–4 ft and periods as low as 5 seconds (combined energy 87–101). It’s clean but tiny and weak – you might get a knee-high wave if you’re desperate, but it’s not worth the paddle.

Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th are a write-off. The wind swings back cross-on or onshore, gusting up to 22 mph on Sunday with rain. Swell is up to 7 ft on Sunday afternoon but it’s short period (5–6 seconds) and the energy jumps to 366 – still ugly with onshore wind and lumpy conditions. Sunday’s light rain isn’t exactly inviting either.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting – but with a big caveat. Monday the 20th is a standout on paper. Overnight, the swell builds to 8 ft from the SSW with a 10-second period. That’s a proper groundswell, and the combined energy is massive – 1353 in the morning, 2518 in the afternoon. The wind is cross-shore from the W at 12–19 mph, and it cleans up a bit. But mate, 8 ft is getting into serious territory for this reef break – the data says this is too big for the break. This is for experienced crew only, and even then, it’s going to be a beast. The optimum swell direction is SE, and we’re getting SSW, so the angle isn’t perfect. It’s a big, heavy, powerful day but only for those who know what they’re doing. For everyone else, stay on the sand.

Tuesday the 21st drops back to 4–5 ft with 9-second period, but the wind is onshore from the S at 9–12 mph – poor again.

Wednesday the 22nd has 7–7 ft SSW swell with 8-second period and moderate cross-onshore wind. The afternoon wave comment says wind and tide are favorable, but the swell is too big for the break again (693 combined energy). Not one for the crowd.

Thursday the 23rd is marginal – 5–6 ft SSW swell, 9 seconds, but with a light cross-shore breeze from the E/ESE at 6–9 mph. The morning is actually tidy with small wind ripples, but the rating is low – it’s surfable but ordinary. Combined energy is 475–725, so there’s some push, but it’s not exciting.

From Friday the 24th all the way through to Wednesday the 30th, it’s a long, drawn-out run of poor conditions. Swell drops to 1–5 ft, periods are short (7–9 seconds), and the wind is mostly cross-on or onshore. Energy is weak to moderate. The only blip is Thursday the 30th morning – glassy conditions with the wind going light from the WSW at 3 mph. Swell is tiny though, just 2 ft from the SW with an 8-second period, so it’s clean but barely a ripple (combined energy 93). Wave comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary.”

The bottom line: If you’re an expert looking for a challenge, Monday the 20th is your only real shot at something meaty, but it’s a beast and not for the faint-hearted. Otherwise, the Thursday the 30th morning offers a rare window of glassy conditions, but you’ll need a longboard and low expectations. The rest is a write-off. This run of poor surf is pretty normal for the area when the wind and swell don’t line up – it won’t stay poor forever, but this forecast is a real test of patience.

Rusty.

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