Lawrencetown Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it.

The next couple of weeks look pretty slow for the most part. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak surf ahead, so you’ll want to pick your moments. There’s a serious pulse of energy coming way down the line, but it’s a double-edged sword.

Right off the bat, there’s nothing doing for the first few days. The swell is tiny, and the wind isn’t doing us any favors. Monday the 10th has a little bit of shape in the morning with a clean 2ft SW swell, but it’s pretty weak. The energy is only measuring in the 50s and 60s, which is barely a pulse. You’d be scratching for anything.

The middle of the week stays pretty flat and messy. There’s some surfable but very ordinary stuff on Thursday the 13th morning, with around 3ft of SSW swell and a clean cross-off wind. But again, it’s not going to get your heart racing. The energy is still weak, sitting at 70.

The next real chance looks like Friday the 14th. The swell bumps up a bit to 4ft, but the wind is all over the place, and it’s got that cross-chop on it. The afternoon gets a touch more size but the wind picks up to 20 km/h, making it pretty messy. Not ideal.

Saturday the 15th sees the swell push to 4ft, with moderate cross-shore wind. The energy is starting to climb, hitting 219, which is moderate. But the conditions are still poor. Not worth getting too excited about.

By Sunday the 16th, the swell drops back down, but the wind turns light and cross-off. The morning is clean but small at 3ft. The afternoon has a funky S swell at 10 seconds, but it’s still only 2ft. It’s clean, but gutless.

The start of the following week is a write-off. Nothing doing.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The forecast shows a big pulse of east swell hitting around Sunday the 23rd. The energy readings are massive, with the combined energy at 1067 by the afternoon. That’s a strong, powerful swell. But here’s the catch: it’s coming in at 10ft. That is serious size. For a reef break like Lawrencetown Reef, that’s too big. It’s going to be a washing machine. The wind and tide might be favorable, but this is one for the experts only, and even then, it’s likely going to be out of control. The morning of the 23rd starts at 7ft, which is still pretty heavy. And then Monday the 24th is still 8ft with onshore wind, which is just a mess.

So, what’s the call? The standout, if you can call it that, is the morning of Thursday the 13th. It’s not big, but it’s clean, and you’ll get a few fun ones. The real highlight, the one with the most size and potential, is the window on Sunday the 23rd, but it’s only for the bravest, most experienced chargers, and even then, it might be too much. For everyone else, it’s a case of waiting for the smaller, cleaner windows.

Crowds shouldn’t be a huge issue on the small days, but if the swell on the 23rd cleans up anywhere, expect a few people out. It’s a reef, so it can handle the size better than a beach, but 10ft is a whole different beast.

Keep it on your radar, but don’t get your hopes up for perfect conditions. The ocean will do what it wants.

Rusty.

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