Lawrencetown Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a long, hard look at what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks. I’ll be straight with you—this forecast is a tough one. We're staring down a long stretch of mostly small, wind-affected surf with a couple of fleeting windows where it might just come together.

The overall pattern is dominated by onshore winds and weak, short-period swell energy. The water temperature at the start is sitting at 64°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won't freeze while you're waiting for a wave that never comes.

We’ve got a real gap on our hands here. From now through most of next week, the recommendations are flat. For the first four days, from Monday the 17th through Thursday the 20th, it’s all poor surf conditions with combined swell energy barely cracking 100 (14 to 162) and gusty onshore winds making a mess of things. We see a slight bump on the morning of Wednesday the 19th with a 5ft SSW swell and a combined energy of 503, but with a rating of just 2, the wind is onshore and the conditions are described as marginal. Not the kind of swell you paddle out for.

The weekend of the 22nd and 23rd brings clean offshore and even glassy conditions on Saturday, but the swell is tiny—only 2ft to 3ft with periods of 7 seconds or less. The combined energy is pitiful (40 to 114). You’d be bobbing around more than surfing. Monday the 24th morning finally shows some life with a 4ft S swell and glassy conditions, but the period is a short 6 seconds, and the energy is only 142. It’s described as "surfable but very ordinary."

Now, hold on to your wetsuits. The only true standout in this whole 16-day window lands on Saturday, August 29th. The morning kicks off with a fresh offshore N wind at 18 mph and a solid 5ft SE swell with a period of 7 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 259. The afternoon session looks even better, with a moderate offshore NNE wind at 15 mph, a 4ft SE swell, and a combined energy of 229. The guidance says "expect good surf conditions." This is it, folks. That Saturday afternoon is the one to circle on your calendar. The wind will be clean, and there will be enough push to get some fun ones at Lawrencetown Reef. Be warned, though—this spot can get crowded, so don't expect to have it to yourself.

After that, the following week drops back into the doldrums. Sunday the 30th and Monday the 31st are messy and small again with onshore and cross-shore winds. By Tuesday, September 1st, we're back to flat and uninspiring conditions.

To sum it up: Don't bother paddling out until Saturday, August 29th. That's your best bet. The rest is a write-off. Stay patient, and keep your eye on the horizon.

Rusty

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