Lawrencetown Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s coming our way.

Honestly, the next couple of weeks are a bit of a grind. We’ve got a long stretch of small, messy conditions with hardly any real standouts. The good news is that the forecast opens up a bit toward the end of the period, but you’ll have to be patient.

Let’s start with the first real chance of anything worthwhile. The most promising window is on Tuesday the 18th of August. That morning, the water is a touch warmer than normal at 65 °F. The swell is coming from the SSW at 6 ft with a period of 6 seconds, and the combined wave energy is moderate (318). The wind is completely glassy – dead calm, flat water. That’s a major positive. With the swell direction matching the optimum SE direction for Lawrencetown Reef, it’s a clean, beginner-friendly setup, but it’s an inconsistent spot so don’t expect a constant parade. It’s the best on offer across the whole 16 days.

The Tuesday afternoon window keeps the glassy conditions with the swell dropping slightly to 5 ft, energy still moderate (253) and the wind still calm. This is where you want to be if you’re looking for a paddle.

Before that, the first week is a write-off. From the 10th through the 17th, we’re stuck with tiny, weak swell (energy values in the double digits and low hundreds) and onshore or cross-onshore winds making for choppy, poor surf. The swell is short period (5 to 8 seconds), so it’s weak and lacking shape. There’s a brief clean-up on the 15th and 16th with cross-offshore winds, but the swell is still small (4 ft to 3 ft) and the energy is low. It’s surfable, but barely.

After the 18th, the outlook drops off again. The 19th has a clean, cross-offshore wind but the swell is tiny (2 ft) and from the SSE, which is not the optimum direction. The 20th brings a bigger pulse (6 ft) but it’s accompanied by strong onshore wind, making it messy and only for experts. The combined energy hits 1167, which is strong, but it’s blown out.

The final few days from the 22nd to the 25th stay small (1.0 ft to 4 ft) with a mix of clean and choppy conditions, but nothing worth writing home about. The energy is low to moderate, and the swell direction is off.

So, bottom line: if you want a session, mark your calendar for Tuesday the 18th of August. That’s your one true standout. Everything else is a wait-and-see.

Rusty.

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