Lawrencetown Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, Rusty here again. Let’s break it down for you in feet and miles per hour.

The next couple of weeks are looking pretty bleak for a decent paddle. We’ve got a long stretch of poor conditions ahead, but there’s a flash of something big right at the end of the first week that might just get the heart pumping, if you’re game.

The first real chance of anything decent doesn’t show up until Thursday, July 23rd. Before that, we’re looking at a solid wall of nothing. From Sunday the 19th right through to Wednesday the 22nd, it’s all cross-on and onshore winds, choppy, messy, and weak. Swell’s there, but the quality is just garbage. The wind is ruining it. You’d be wasting your time.

Now, Thursday, July 23rd is where things get interesting, but it’s not for everyone. At Lawrencetown Reef, we’ve got a big pulse of swell rolling in from the SSW. The morning sees a solid 12 ft swell with a period of 10 seconds. That’s a lot of juice – the combined energy reading is a massive 3786 – that’s proper strong stuff. The wind is a light cross-on from the WSW at about 15 mph, which is actually workable, but let’s be real: 12 ft is heavy. This is expert territory only. Beginners, stay on the sand. The afternoon eases a bit to 8 ft from the same direction, with the wind shifting to a light cross-on from the SSW at about 6 mph. The energy is still serious at 1147. The water temp is sitting at 57°F, which is about a degree and a half cooler than average for this time of year, so you’ll want a good thick wetsuit.

Friday the 24th drops right off. The swell drops to 5 ft in the morning, with a light cross-shore from the east, but the forecast says it’s marginal. Not worth your time. The rest of the week into the weekend is a write-off – small, messy, onshore junk. There’s a brief moment on Tuesday, July 28th when the wind goes offshore from the north, but the swell is tiny – 2 ft. Clean, but barely a ripple. Not worth suiting up for.

The last week of the forecast, from the 29th of July into early August, is just flat and poor. The wind is all over the place, and the swell is mostly below 3 ft. There’s a glassy moment on the morning of Sunday, August 2nd, but the swell is a pathetic 2 ft from the SW with a period of just 4 seconds. That’s windswell, not surf.

So, the one standout is Thursday, July 23rd. If you’re an experienced surfer and you’ve got the balls for a big, powerful reef break, that’s your window. For everyone else, it’s a long wait.

Rusty.

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