Kaolins Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with ya – this forecast window for Kaolins is a real mixed bag, and for the most part, it’s a tough watch. The whole 16-day run is dominated by tiny, weak swell and a lot of crummy onshore wind, so you’ve gotta be patient and pick your moments. The water temp is sitting at 68°F, which is a whopping 5°F warmer than usual for this time of year – proper tropical-feeling, even if the surf isn’t firing.

The first week is a write-off. From Tuesday the 14th right through to Thursday the 23rd, we’re looking at a solid stretch of nothing. Swell is tiny, mostly under 2ft, with a combined energy so weak it’s barely registering (often single digits or low double figures). Winds are mostly cross-onshore or onshore, making it choppy and messy. There are a few glassy mornings here and there – like the 23rd of July, Thursday morning, with 3ft of swell and glassy conditions – but the period is a pathetic 5 seconds, so it’s all wind slop, not real surf. Not worth paddling out for.

Then we hit the final stretch. Friday the 25th of July, Saturday morning, something finally shows up. The swell lifts to 2ft from the W with a long period of 13 seconds (groundswell), and the combined energy jumps to 203 – moderate. That’s a real sign of life. The catch? Winds are cross-onshore, so it’s not clean, and the break is a reef that’s inconsistent and rarely breaks, so you’ll be waiting for sets. Still, if you’re desperate, that morning session is the best of a bad bunch.

The real standout – and I mean the only standout – comes on Monday the 27th of July, afternoon. The swell hits 6ft from the WNW with a solid 10-second period, and the combined energy cranks to 912. That’s strong energy, all directed here. But here’s the rub: it’s cross-onshore and choppy, and the swell is over 5ft, so it’s pushing into expert territory at this reef. The wind is a moderate breeze from the WSW, so it’s not clean. For a break that’s already inconsistent and only for advanced surfers, you’d want better conditions. Still, if you’re a local charger who knows the reef, it’s the only day with any real power. Tuesday the 28th of July afternoon is similar, with 5ft and 865 energy, but again, onshore wind.

Honestly, mate, this is a lean run. The breaks are inconsistent, and the conditions are rarely on your side. For the first 10 days, you’re better off finding something else to do. The late window has a couple of pulses, but they’re compromised by wind. If the forecasts shift, it might get better, but as it stands, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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