Kaolins Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for the region around Kaolins, that advanced reef setup that needs a solid SW groundswell and clean conditions to fire. To be blunt, the next 16 days look like a write-off for proper surfing around here. There’s a long dry spell of poor surf conditions, and we don’t see a real stand-out window. The whole forecast is a bit of a bummer.

The first record shows Tuesday 25 August with a tiny 1ft SW swell, period a short 8 seconds, combined energy just 47. Winds are onshore and it’s rated a zero. That sets the tone. Wednesday comes with more of the same. Thursday 27 August sees the swell push up to 5ft, but that’s from the SW with a poor 6-second period and onshore winds; combined energy hits 195 (moderate) but the quality is still terrible.

Friday 28 August gets a little bigger – 6ft to 6ft from the WSW – but with 30 to 35 km/h cross-onshore winds, fresh and lumpy, it’s a mess. Combined energy reaches 376, but don’t be fooled. Saturday 29 August sees the swell peak at 8ft from the SW, period still short at 8 seconds, and the morning has 40 km/h onshore winds. That’s expert territory in size alone, and with those winds, it’s not even worth paddling out. Combined energy hits 789 (strong).

Sunday 30 August drops back a little but stays poor, with onshore and cross-onshore winds. Monday 31 August shows the biggest combined energy of the entire forecast at 1552 (very strong) for the morning with a 8ft W swell, 9-second period, but it’s cross-onshore and choppy. The whole first week is a washout.

The second week doesn’t improve much. Tuesday 1 September to Thursday 3 September stays onshore or cross-onshore with SW winds, swells between 4ft and 6ft, all poor. Finally, on Friday 4 September, there’s a glimmer: a 3ft W swell, 9-second period, combined energy 140 (weak), and for the morning the wind goes light north at 5 km/h, cross-offshore. The wave comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions” and scores a 1/10. That’s as good as it gets. It’s clean, but tiny.

Saturday 5 September sees the swell jump to 5ft to 6ft from the W, period 9-10 seconds, combined energy up to 1248 (very strong) by the afternoon, but the wind swings NW and hits 30 km/h, cross-shore and lumpy. Not worth it. Sunday 6 September through to the end of the forecast on Wednesday 9 September stays in the cross-onshore zone, with swells up to 6ft. The combined energy for Tuesday 8 September afternoon gets to 1573 (very strong again) with a 6ft WSW swell and a long 14-second period. That’s a proper groundswell. But it’s onshore wind, and the wave comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions”. Still a zero in terms of quality for adventurers.

Bottom line: for an advanced reef like Kaolins, you need clean, offshore wind and a decent SW groundswell. That never lines up. The only half-decent moment is the morning of Friday 4 September, but that’s a tiny 3ft wave. If you’re a kite surfer, the strong cross-onshore days with bigger swell might look more interesting than paddle surfing. The gap of good conditions stretches nearly the whole 16 days. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s pretty flat and ugly.

Rusty.

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