Kaolins Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee, mate. Rusty here with the long-range look at Kaolins.

First up, the bad news: there’s virtually nothing worth paddling out for in the next 16 days. The forecast is a dust bowl of tiny, short-period slop and onshore winds. The first few days are a write-off – Sunday the 19th through to the 27th, morning and afternoon, you’re looking at ankle‑snappers under 2 ft with a fresh breeze that’s offshore but only for the first few hours; after that it swings cross‑onshore or onshore and turns the surface into a mess. Combined energy all through that period sits below 100 – weak, feeble stuff. The water temperature on Sunday morning is 70°F, which is 5°F warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s a standout anomaly, very unusual.

Now, the only flicker of hope comes late in the second week. On Monday the 27th of July morning, a modest pulse pushes through – 4 ft from the WNW with a cross‑shore wind, but the combined energy jumps to 400 (moderate) and the wave comment still says “poor surf conditions”. Zero score. That afternoon the wind goes cross‑offshore and the swell is still 4 ft, energy 258 – still no good.

Tuesday the 28th of July morning sees 3 ft from the west, clean cross‑offshore wind, energy 155 – but still a zero rating. The afternoon is the only time the score climbs to 1 out of 10: 5 ft from the WNW, period 9 seconds, energy 537 (moderate), clean cross‑offshore wind. That’s the biggest swell of the whole run, but at 5 ft it’s still only small for a reef, and the wave comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions”. Not exactly a green light.

Wednesday the 29th of July morning has 2 ft from the west, period 11 seconds (longer period groundswell), clean light breeze, energy 144 – again a score of 1, described as “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions”. That’s the second and last hint of something rideable, but it’s tiny.

After that, from the 30th of July through to the 3rd of August, it’s back to dribble – 2 ft or less, mostly cross‑onshore or onshore wind, energy under 50.

So what’s the bottom line? For a spot that’s already inconsistent and rarely breaks, this 16‑day window is a total blank. The only two sessions that even get a “1” are the 28th afternoon and the 29th morning – both still marginal. If you’re desperate, the 28th afternoon offers the best chance of a clean wave with that 5 ft west‑northwest swell and offshore wind, but it’s small, the tide could be iffy, and the crowd factor is “sometimes” – so you might have company. The 29th morning has a longer 11‑second period which will give the reef a bit more shape, but only 2 ft.

Honestly, for a reef break that needs a decent swell and clean conditions, this forecast is a dud. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing on those days when the wind is strong and cross‑onshore.

Keep an eye on the charts – it tends not to stay this poor for long, and the forecasts can change. But for now, leave the boards at home.

Rusty

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