Kaolins Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you—this 16-day window for Kaolins is a tough one. We’re looking at a long, drawn-out run of tiny, weak swell with hardly any proper surf on offer. The first real pulse of size doesn’t show up until late in the period, and even then it’s partnered with messy wind. There’s a big gap of nothing worth paddling out for from now until late July, so don’t rush to wax your board.

We start off with a stretch where the swell is barely a ripple. From Sunday the 19th right through to the end of July, the waves are mostly 0.7ft to 2ft from the west or west-southwest, with periods all under 11 seconds—mostly short-period, weak wind swell. The combined energy is tiny, reading between 1 and 61 (weak energy). The wind is a mixed bag: mornings are often clean with offshore or cross-off breezes, but afternoons get chopped up by cross-onshore winds. The only real highlight in this early stretch is Thursday morning, the 23rd of July, when it goes glassy, but with only 0.7ft of swell, it’s a millpond. There’s no surfable wave height to work with.

Then we hit a change around Tuesday the 28th of July. The swell finally bumps up to 4ft to 4ft from the west, with a short period of 8 to 9 seconds. The combined energy jumps into the moderate range (169 to 463). But it’s not clean. On Tuesday afternoon, the wind is strong onshore from the southwest at 19 mph, making it messy. Not great for a paddle surf, but with that kind of wind and building swell, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The best chance for a surf comes on Wednesday the 29th of July morning. We’ve got a 4ft west swell, period 7 seconds—short period, so it’ll be a bit crumbly—but the wind is dead calm, glassy. The combined energy is 207 (moderate). It’s surfable, but only just. The conditions are ordinary, and the break is inconsistent, so you’ll have to wait for sets. Expect crowds to be possible here. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual.

The next morning, Thursday the 30th of July, also offers a window: 3ft west swell, 9-second period, with a light cross-offshore from the north-northwest at 6 mph. It’s clean, with a combined energy of 175 (moderate). Again, it’s inconsistent and the waves are nothing special, but it’s the best we’ve got.

After that, Friday the 31st of July morning sees a 5ft west swell, 9-second period, with light cross-shore wind, giving 299 combined energy (moderate). But it’s marginal, and the afternoon gets wrecked by strong cross-onshore wind.

The standout, if you can call it that, is Saturday the 1st of August morning. We’ve got a 5ft swell from the west-northwest, 10-second period, with light cross-onshore wind—only 6 mph, so it’s not too messy. The combined energy hits 823 (strong), the biggest of the whole outlook. This is the biggest swell, and the period is decent, but it’s a little too big for beginners, and the cross-onshore wind will put a bit of texture on it. The break is a reef, so longer-period swells like this (10 seconds is solid) can shape up nicely, but it’s inconsistent and rarely breaks, so don’t count on it firing. It’s promising, but being a week and a half out, take it with a grain of salt.

It’s a lean run. The area doesn’t often serve up long blank periods, so forecasts can change, but for now, keep your expectations low.

Rusty.

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