Kaolins Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s cut to the chase—this run of surf for Kaolins is mostly a bummer. We’ve got a long flat spell, then a short burst of real swell that’s got some promise but also some issues.

For the first week and a half, it’s all small, weak, and messy. From now through the 13th, we’re looking at waves from about 0.7ft to 3ft, with weak energy readings—numbers like 12, 24, or 85. Swell direction is all over the place, but it’s not cooperating. Periods are short, mostly 7-10 seconds, so there’s no punch. Winds are mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the water is about 66°F, which is normal for this time of year. It’s just knee-high slop and not worth your time.

On the morning of Thursday the 14th, there’s a tiny glimmer. Swell comes up to about 3ft from the W with a 10-second period, and the energy jumps to a moderate 148. Wind is a light cross-offshore from the NNE, so the surface should be clean. It’s surfable, but it’s nothing to write home about. This is the best of a bad bunch.

Then it drops back to tiny surf from the 15th to the 19th—waves in the 1ft to 2ft range with weak energy. There are a couple of glassy mornings, but the swell is just too small. It’s the kind of flat spell that tests your patience.

Now, here’s the one to circle. It’s a long way off, so don’t book any flights yet. On Thursday the 20th, the afternoon sees a jump to about 5ft from the W with an 8-second period. The energy is a strong 235. Wind is a fresh cross-offshore from the N, which will keep it clean. This is the start of something.

The real standout is Friday morning the 21st. Swell pushes up to about 6ft from the WNW with a 9-second period, and the combined energy is a massive 719. This is the biggest swell of the window. The wind is a gentle cross-onshore from the SSE, which will add a little texture. At 6ft, this is too big for beginners and is expert territory.

But there are caveats. This is a reef break, and it’s inconsistent—it doesn’t break often. It’s a short-period swell, which can make it walled-up. And the cross-onshore wind means it won’t be glassy. It’s still the best offer, but you’ll need to know what you’re doing.

After Friday, it fades fast. By the 22nd, we’re back to small, weak, and windy. The run ends as it started—flat and frustrating.

So, for beginners, stay away until after the 21st. For experts, the morning of the 21st is your chance. It’s not perfect, but it’s got the most power. Everything else is a skunk. Keep expectations low, and hope the forecast changes.

Rusty.

Read more