Kaolins Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break it down. This is a lean period for Kaolins, no two ways about it. The first ten days are a write-off if you’re after a proper surf. We’re looking at a long stretch of nothing until things finally start to wake up in the second week.

From now through to the start of August, the swell is tiny and the wind is mostly wrong. The water temp is sitting at about average for this time of year, nothing special. The combined wave energy is pitiful, barely cracking 60 (65) at best, but mostly loafing around in the 20s and 30s. You’ll see a clean morning here and there—like Friday 31st July morning with a light cross-off breeze—but that’s only pushing 2 ft of weak, short-period W swell. It’s not going to break with any punch. Honestly, for the first week and a half, you’d be better off doing something else.

Then, around the 5th and 6th of August, we get a jump in size. The swell bumps up to 5 ft to 6 ft, and the combined energy jumps into the moderate range (419, 385). But look at the wind—it’s onshore and cross-onshore, straight out of the WSW and SW. That’s going to trash the surface. The wave period is short (7-8 seconds), so it’s windswell, all bumpy and messy. No good for a paddle surfer. If you’re into kites, this setup might look interesting, but for a surfboard, it’s a pass.

Finally, on the morning of Friday 7th August, we get a real window. That’s the standout. The swell is 5 ft from the WNW, with a clean cross-off breeze from the ESE at just 6 mph. The combined energy hits 591—moderate to strong—and the wind is light. This is the only session in the whole 16 days that rates a score. It’s a reef break, and with the swell coming from the WNW, it’s not the optimum SW direction, but the clean conditions will make it rideable. The crowd factor is “sometimes,” so there could be a few out, but it won’t be a zoo. The swell is 5 ft, which is solid for an advanced break, but it’s not stupid big. Just keep in mind, this break is inconsistent, so don’t bank on it being a regular thing. For a Friday morning, if you can get out, this is the one.

After that, it’s back to onshore wind and chop for the rest of the fortnight. The swell sticks around but the quality drops off a cliff. The 10th of August has a bump in energy (376) but the wind is screaming from the WSW at 22 mph—fresh breeze and lumpy. Not surfable.

So, bottom line: a long, dry spell, then one morning on the 7th of August that could be worth the wait. The rest is either flat, messy, or blown out.

Rusty.

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