Kaolins Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next sixteen days at Kaolins are a bit of a grind. There’s nothing pumping, and you’ll be scratching for anything decent. We’ve got a long stretch of poor conditions, but the pattern does shift a little towards the end of the first week and into the second week, offering some small windows of quality.

The water temp is sitting about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

We start off with nada. Sunday the 6th is a write-off: tiny 2 ft to 2 ft west swell, messy cross-off or onshore wind, and weak energy (94 to 121). Monday the 7th sees a bit more size – 4 ft to 5 ft from the WSW – but it’s cross-on and choppy, with a combined energy of 521 to 731. That’s actually moderate to strong energy, but the wind kills it. Tuesday the 8th is similar, though the afternoon goes glassy with a light cross-shore, but the swell is only 3 ft and the period is short. Wednesday the 9th is more of the same: cross-shore breeze, small 4 ft swell, and weak energy.

Thursday morning the 10th is a brief tease – glassy conditions, but the swell is a pathetic 2 ft and the period is only 7 seconds, with combined energy of just 65. It’s clean, but you’d be lucky to find a ride.

Friday the 11th gets a bit of a bump: 6 ft from the WSW, but it’s a short-period 7 seconds, so it’s steep and junky. Onshore wind makes it poor. Saturday the 12th afternoon is the first real standout. The swell is 4 ft from the WSW, period is a short 5 seconds, but it’s glassy. The combined energy is 102 (moderate), and the conditions are “surfable but very ordinary.” It’s not great, but it’s the best we’ve seen. Crowds are possible here.

Now, from Sunday the 13th through to the end of the forecast, the swell drops right off. Most days are sub-3 ft, with the occasional 2 ft to 3 ft west swell. The wind turns offshore or cross-offshore for much of this period, which is a major positive. The standout window is Sunday the 13th morning: 3 ft from the west, 11-second period, and a moderate offshore breeze (ENE, 12 mph). The combined energy is 143 (moderate), and it’s clean. This is the best on offer – small, but clean and lined up. Also worth mentioning is Tuesday the 15th afternoon: 2 ft, 12-second period, glassy conditions. The combined energy is 141 (moderate) and it’s clean. Wednesday the 16th morning is similar: 2 ft, 11-second period, gentle offshore and clean, with 183 combined energy. And Friday the 18th morning: 3 ft, 10-second period, moderate offshore, 121 combined energy.

Overall, the best surf is on Sunday the 13th morning and Tuesday the 15th afternoon. The swell is small, but the offshore and glassy winds will make it clean. For a reef break like Kaolins, the longer-period swells (11-12 seconds) will give better shape, but it’s still small. If you’re an advanced surfer, you’ll find something to work with. Beginners might be bored, but the conditions are safe.

The second week is just a series of small, clean mornings with no real size. It’s not hopeless, but it’s a waiting game. Keep an eye on the long-range, because the pattern is consistent with offshore winds, and that can change quickly.

Rusty, signing off.

Read more