Kaolins Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for the Kaolin area.

We’re in for a patchy run for the next week or so, but there’s a real standout lurking in the second week that’s got my attention. The good news is we’ve got a few clean windows, but patience is going to be the name of the game through a lot of this period.

The first proper look comes in on the morning of Monday the 14th. Conditions are glassy with a small 3ft W swell, period around 9 seconds, and the combined energy is weak at 131. It’s not big, but the water temperature is 66°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year. However, the afternoon goes straight to junk with an onshore wind and a score of zero, so don’t count on it lasting.

We hit a real dry spell after that. Tuesday the 15th through to the afternoon of Wednesday the 16th is mostly poor surf conditions or just marginal. Wednesday the 16th does show a jump in size with 6ft WNW swell by the afternoon and a strong combined energy of 1114, but the wind is cross-offshore and clean. The problem is that at 6ft and over 8ft for experts later, it’s getting into territory for more experienced crew only, and the quality is still called marginal, not a goer.

From Thursday the 17th right through to the morning of Monday the 21st, it’s relentless poor conditions. Onshore wind, choppy, lumpy. A total write-off. That’s about four days of nothing worth paddling out for.

Finally, Monday the 21st morning gives us a glimmer. We get a 4ft W swell with a 14-second period and clean conditions with a light breeze. That’s a long-period groundswell with a combined energy of 577, which is moderate. It’s a proper, lined-up swell for the reef at Kaolins, which is fair exposed to this W direction. The wind is light cross-off and it’s the first time we see a positive score. This is the first real highlight – but it’s a one-hit wonder as the afternoon drops back off.

After that, Tuesday the 22nd through Thursday the 24th is back to tiny or poor conditions. A few sessions with clean offshore winds on the 22nd morning and 23rd, but the swell is tiny – 2ft to 3ft. Just not enough push.

Now, here’s the one worth circling on the calendar. The morning of Sunday the 27th. This is the standout of the whole outlook. We’ve got a 7ft WSW swell with a 10-second period and combined energy of 858 – that’s moderate-to-strong. The wind is light cross-offshore, which will keep the faces clean. The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions” and the score is the highest of the whole run. For Kaolins, this looks like the best bet. The swell direction is clean from the WSW and matches the optimum for the spot. At 7ft it’s big, expert territory, and the reef will handle it well. This is the session to aim for.

The Monday the 28th morning pushes even bigger with 10ft, but by then it’s cross-shore and the quality drops back to marginal, and the afternoon is a total wipeout with heavy onshore wind. So don’t sleep on the 27th.

Overall, the run is full of gaps, but that Sunday the 27th is a true standout. Be ready for it.

Rusty.

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