Kaolins Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s on the menu for Kaolins, a reef set-up that’s pretty exposed to the southwest.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this isn’t one of those magic windows where everything lines up. We’ve got a long, drawn-out period of tiny surf and tricky winds. The water is sitting at 69°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t be freezing your tail off while you’re scratching for nothing.

The whole first week, through the 23rd of July, is basically a write-off. The swell is tiny, mostly 0.7 ft to 1.0 ft, and the energy is weak, sitting in the 10 to 15 range. It’s just not worth paddling out for. You’ll see a few mornings with clean offshore winds, like Sunday the 19th (19 mph offshore) and Tuesday the 22nd (light offshore), but with that tiny swell, it’s a frustrating tease.

We finally see a little bump in the water around the 25th of July. The swell picks up to 2 ft on Saturday morning, but it’s a short-period, choppy mess with strong cross-onshore winds. The energy is still weak at 52. By Saturday afternoon, the wind is howling at 19 mph, and the wave height hits 4 ft, but the period is a shocking 5 seconds. That’s pure wind-slop, and with the cross-shore wind, it’s going to be bumpy and lumpy. This spot is better for paddle surfing than kite surfing, but even then, it’s rough.

The 26th of July (Sunday) is a bit better energy-wise, with the combined energy hitting 120 to 124 (moderate). There’s 3 ft of swell, but the period is still only 8 seconds, and the wind is cross-onshore. It’s surfable, but very ordinary.

Now, here’s the one bright spot, and it’s a bit of a tease. On the 27th of July, Monday morning, we get a moment of glass. The wind is dead calm from the northwest, and there’s 3 ft of swell from the west-northwest at 8 seconds. The energy is up to 169 (moderate). It’s only a 1 out of 10 on the scale, but that glassy morning makes it the best you’ll see. This is the only real standout window.

After that, we’re back to small, weak surf through the end of the month and into the start of August. The first of August has a clean, gentle offshore wind, but the swell is only 2 ft from the west. It’s a long period of waiting for a real pulse.

So, my call: if you’re desperate for a paddle, aim for the 27th of July, Monday morning. That glassy spell is the one true standout. Everything else is a lot of waiting for not much. Don't expect fireworks, and keep your expectations low.

Rusty.

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