Kailua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, lookin' at the surf outlook for Kailua Beach. I gotta be straight with ya – it's a bit of a tough stretch ahead. The whole 16-day window is a mixed bag of onshore winds and lumpy conditions, and honestly, for a point break that really wants a clean NE swell, the wind is just not playin' ball. The water's sittin' at a warm 79°, which is dead average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real sniff of anything worth paddling out for doesn't come until Monday, the 28th of July. Before that, from Friday the 17th right through to Sunday the 27th, it's a long, frustrating run of "poor surf conditions" and "moderate to fresh cross-onshore" wind. The swell is there, but it's messy and chopped up. The wind is mostly from the ENE, blowin' across the break, and the period is short, mostly 6 to 8 seconds. That's weak, wind-affected slop. The combined energy is moderate, often in the 200s or 300s (174 to 665), but the wind just kills it. There's a big spike of energy on the 26th and 27th (over 1400 to 2000) with a super long period of 16 to 17 seconds from the east, but with a fresh onshore breeze, it's still rated poor. That long period groundswell would be a dream if the wind was right, but it's not.

The only day that even gets a look-in is Tuesday, the 28th of July. The morning is "marginal surf forecast" with a score of 1 out of 10. The swell is a solid 7 ft from the east, with a period of 15 seconds, so that's a long-period groundswell with plenty of energy (combined energy is 1930 – very strong). The wind is from the NE at 9 mph, which is onshore. That's a problem. For a point break like Kailua Beach, that onshore wind will make it a bit bumpy, but that long period will hold the shape better than the short-period junk we've been seeing. The afternoon is similar, 7 ft from the east with a 14-second period, but the wind picks up to 12 mph, still onshore. It's not perfect, but it's the only day with a chance of a decent wave. The swell direction is east, which is not the ideal NE the spot wants, but it's close enough to work. For experts only, as 7 ft with onshore wind gets heavy. After that, the swell drops back down and the wind stays onshore, so that's your one shot.

So, here's the call: the whole run is a bit of a write-off until Tuesday the 28th. That's a full 11 days of waiting. If you're desperate, that Tuesday morning might offer a few clean-ish sets, but don't expect perfection. It's a long wait for a maybe. For the rest of the time, the setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, with that strong, consistent onshore breeze.

Rusty.

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