Kailua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks.

First off, I gotta be straight with you – the outlook for Kailua Beach is a bit of a bummer for the near future. The swell is coming in from the ENE, which is not the direction this point likes to see. We’re looking at strong to moderate onshore and cross-onshore winds for the first several days, and the surf is just small and messy. The combined swell energy is weak at best, starting at 521 on Friday the 24th, and the conditions are just poor. There’s a lot of chop and lumpy water, and the swell period is short, around 7 to 8 seconds, so it’s not got any real punch. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, nothing to write home about.

We’re looking at a dry spell for a while. The first week is pretty much a write-off. The wind is relentless from the east-northeast, and the wave quality is zero. The best I can see in the first week is a brief moment on Wednesday afternoon the 29th, where the swell picks up to 10ft from the ENE, but it’s still a risk of thunderstorms and a cross-shore wind, making it marginal at best. The combined energy jumps to 1297, but the conditions are just not clean. It’s not a day to get excited about.

There’s a gap of several days with no real quality surf. The wind stays on it, and the swell is inconsistent. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor to marginal conditions until we get past the first week of August.

Now, hold on a second. We get a little glimmer of hope on the 2nd of August. The swell drops to 3ft, but the period stretches out to a very long 16 seconds, turning into a proper groundswell. The combined energy is moderate at 853. The wind is still onshore, though, so it’s going to be a bit of a battle. This is a long way out, so it’s a promising but uncertain prospect. The long period will make it better for a point like Kailua, but the onshore wind will spoil the party.

The real standout, if the forecast holds, is the morning of Wednesday the 5th of August. The swell is 6ft from the ENE, with a period of 12 seconds and a combined energy of 964. The wind is a moderate cross-onshore, which is ‘moderate cross-onshore and choppy’. It’s not perfect, but it’s the best we’ve got on offer in the whole run. It’s a solid, intermediate-sized swell. Keep your eyes on that one.

After that, it tails off again. The wind stays on it, and the swell drops. The 6th and 7th of August have some knee-to-waist high stuff, but the wind is still cross-onshore, and the energy is weak. The 8th of August is the same story.

So, the bottom line is: the first week is a no-go. The second week has a couple of flickers, but the best bet is the morning of the 5th of August. It’s not a classic, but it’s the best we’ve got. Kailua Beach is a point break, so it needs that clean, offshore wind, and we’re just not getting it. It’s a tough run.

Rusty out.

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