Kailua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s coming up.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for quality surf. The system is showing a long stretch of poor conditions, with no real standout sessions until the very end of the period. The only time the forecast even hints at something rideable is around the 27th of July and into the 28th, and even then, it’s marginal.

Starting from Monday the 20th of July, Kailua Beach is a write-off. We’ve got a mix of rain showers and onshore winds from the NE and ENE, blowing 12 to 19 mph, with swell around 4 ft to 5 ft coming from the ENE. The period is short, around 7 to 8 seconds, so it’s weak and choppy. The combined wave energy is moderate (199 to 292), but the wind is just ruining any chance of a clean face. It’s poor, plain and simple.

This continues right through the week. Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd see the wind pick up even more, hitting 19 mph from the ENE, and the swell bumps up to 6 ft to 6 ft. The energy climbs into the 300s (367 to 289), but with short-period, lumpy, onshore junk, you’re better off doing something else. The water temp is sitting at 80°, which is about average for the time of year.

By Friday the 24th and into the weekend, the swell gets a bit bigger, 7 ft from the ENE, and the energy jumps into the 400s to 700s, but it’s still onshore and messy. This is more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-surfing one, especially with that fresh breeze.

Now, Sunday the 26th of July is interesting, but not in a good way. We get a big pulse of long-period groundswell from the E, hitting 5 ft with a period of 16 seconds. The energy is massive (1567), but remember, a long period like that at a beach break like Kailua can make it break too straight and hard to manage. Plus, the wind is still onshore at 16 mph from the ENE. Still, the forecast says poor conditions.

The first real glimmer of hope comes on Monday the 27th of July. The swell drops to 5 ft from the E, period is still long at 14 seconds, and the wind lightens up, blowing 12 mph from the NE, staying onshore but more manageable. The energy is still very strong (1348). The forecast finally calls it “marginal” instead of “poor.” It’s not great, but it’s the best we’ve seen. Crowds are possible at Kailua Beach, as it says they are “sometimes” busy.

Tuesday the 28th of July morning has the best chance of the whole outlook. The wind drops to 9 mph from the NE, onshore, but that’s getting close to glassy. The swell is 6 ft from the E with a 13-second period, and the energy is still strong (1081). The forecast calls it marginal again. This is the one to keep an eye on. If that wind goes a bit lighter, you might snag a couple.

After that, it fades again. The wind stays onshore, the swell drops, and by the 31st of July and into August, we’re back to poor conditions with fresh breezes and short-period junk. The 2nd and 3rd of August see a bit more size (7 ft to 7 ft) but it’s still onshore from the ENE, so it’s not going to be clean.

The only true standout, if you can call it that, is Tuesday morning the 28th of July. It’s the cleanest window we get, with the lightest wind and a decent, long-period groundswell from the east. But don’t expect perfection. It’s a long way out, so treat it as promising but uncertain.

Stay patient, and keep your eye on the sky.

Rusty.

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