Kailua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, grab a coffee. So, I’ve been staring at the charts for Kailua Beach, and, well… I gotta be straight with you, it’s a tough one. We’re in for a real blank spell here. For the next two and a half weeks, from now through to Friday the 11th of September, the conditions are just not playing ball.

Kailua Beach is a classic point break, exposed to the NE, and that’s where most of the swell is coming from, which is spot on. But the problem is the wind. Most of the time we’ve got a fresh breeze howling from the ENE – onshore or cross-onshore – just ruining any chance of a clean face. The water temp is sitting at a nice 81°, which is pretty average for this time of year, so at least you won’t be freezing while you’re getting chopped up.

Let’s run through it. Thursday the 27th into Friday is a write-off. Small, weak swell at 5ft to 5ft with a period of only 6 seconds – that’s just wind chop. The wave energy is weak to moderate (173–238). Just forget it.

We head into the weekend and it gets a bit bigger, 5ft up to 6ft, but the period is still rubbish at 7 seconds, and that wind is fresh and cross-onshore. The combined energy climbs into the 300s, but it’s just lumpy, messy surf. Not worth paddling out for.

That same pattern holds through the start of next week. Monday the 31st sees the swell hit 7ft, and the period finally stretches to 8 seconds. The energy is moderate to strong now (431–480), but the wind is onshore. Tuesday and Wednesday are the same story – cross-onshore wind, choppy conditions, and the wave comment says “poor surf conditions” every time.

There is a slight shift around Thursday the 3rd of September. The swell period jumps to 11 seconds, which is proper groundswell, and the swell direction swings to the east, which is bang-on for Kailua. The combined energy hits 905, which is solid. But again, the wind is cross-onshore in the morning and onshore in the afternoon. It’s still labelled as poor surf. Frustrating, I know.

Then, from the 4th right through to the 7th, we get a run of mornings where the comments change to “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions” with a score of just 1 or 2 out of 10. On the 4th, the swell is 6ft at 12 seconds from the E, and the wind is onshore from the NNE. The energy is very strong (1066). This is the closest we get to something halfway decent, but with that wind, it’s a gamble. On Saturday the 5th, it’s bigger at 7ft with a 12-second period, and energy over 1200, but again, onshore wind. By Monday the 7th, the wind drops to a light breeze from the NE (on), with a 6ft, 9-second swell. The energy is moderate (570). That Monday morning is your absolute best bet of the whole window, but even then, it’s just marginal.

From Tuesday the 8th onward, the swell drops back down to 4ft and the wind is messy again. A couple of days later, around the 11th, there’s a 5ft, 11-second swell from the E with a cross-shore wind, giving a score of 1. Again, not going to set the world on fire.

Honestly, for a break that is fairly consistent, this is a poor run. The swell is there, but the wind is just relentless. For anyone wanting to charge some overhead peaks, the 7ft to 7ft days on the 4th and 5th of September would be for experts only, but with that wind, they’d be a battle. These beachy conditions look more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer during most of this period. Keep an eye on it – these long-range forecasts can change, and it tends not to stay this ugly for long.

Rusty.

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