Kailua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's take a look at what’s on the table for Kailua Beach over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this is a tough outlook. For the entire 16-day window, we are looking at a run of surf that, frankly, just isn't cooperating. The wind is the main culprit, blowing from the ENE and staying onshore or cross-onshore for the vast majority of the period. That means the surface is going to be lumpy, choppy, and generally messy. The swell is rolling in from the ENE, but with that wind tearing it apart, it's just not going to line up. The combined wave energy is moderate, but it's all wasted energy with those conditions.

We kick things off from Saturday, August 29th, right through the first week. The swell height sits around 6 ft to 7 ft, but the period is short, between 6 and 8 seconds. That's a weak, wind-driven chop, not a clean swell. The wind is a steady 18 to 22 mph from the ENE. It’s a classic case of poor conditions across the board. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

There is a bit of a shift around Thursday, September 3rd, where the swell direction tries to come more from the east, and the period jumps to 12 seconds. But the wind is still on it, and the energy is still moderate. It’s not enough to change the game.

The real interesting part comes on Monday, September 7th. The swell jumps up to 8 ft to 10 ft, with the combined energy spiking into the strong range. That's a lot of water moving. But the period is still short (8-10 seconds), and that ENE wind is still blowing onshore. For a point break like Kailua Beach, that size with a short period and onshore wind is going to be a wild, messy beast. It's expert-only territory at that size, and the conditions will make it a real challenge just to get out.

The best chance we get is on Wednesday, September 9th. The wind drops to a gentle breeze from the NE, and we get a 7 ft swell. It's a marginal call, but the lighter wind might give us a window. The energy is moderate. It’s not a standout, but it’s the only time the score even gets close.

After that, the second week settles back into the same pattern: 5 ft to 6 ft swell, short periods, and onshore or cross-onshore winds. It's a long, flat, and messy run. There's simply no standout session in this forecast. The set-up is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing with that constant cross-onshore wind and short-period chop.

Rusty, signing off.

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