Kailua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve gotta be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are a tough watch for surf around Kailua Beach. The whole 16-day window is basically a write-off for quality waves. We’re looking at a solid run of poor conditions, so if you’re itching to paddle out, you’re gonna have to be patient or find something else to do.

Let’s start with the first week. From Sunday the 19th of July right through to the end of the month, it’s pretty grim. The wind is relentless from the east-northeast, mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and blowing at a solid 19 to 22 mph. That’s gonna chop everything up. The swell is hanging around 5 ft to 7 ft from the ENE, but with a short period of only 6 to 8 seconds – that’s weak, wind-driven junk. The combined energy is moderate, peaking at 513 on the 24th, but it’s all messy. There’s a real stretch of days here, from the 19th through to the 25th, where every single session is rated as poor. You’d be fighting a losing battle.

Now, the second week kicks off with a bit of a tease. On Sunday the 26th of July, the swell period jumps up to 16 seconds – that’s a very long period groundswell coming from the east. The swell height is only 5 ft to 5 ft, but the combined energy rockets up to 1483, showing there’s some serious power in the water. The problem? The wind is still onshore from the northeast at 16-19 mph. That’s going to ruin the surface. Kailua Beach is a point break, and with a long period swell like this, it’s usually better at reefs or points, but the wind is just cruel. It’s a classic case of "looks good on paper but don’t get your hopes up."

Things get a touch more interesting around Tuesday the 28th of July. We see a moderate swell of 8 ft to 8 ft from the ENE, with a period of 13 seconds (that’s solid groundswell). The combined energy is massive at 2005. The wind is lighter, from the north-northeast at 9 mph, which is still onshore but much less savage. The forecast says "marginal" – not good, but it’s the closest we get to a window. This is honestly the only potential standout in the whole outlook, but I’d call it a desperate option. The size is getting up there, over 8 ft, so this is for experts only. Beginners, stay well clear. The water temp is sitting at 80°F, which is about normal for this time of year.

After that, it’s back to the same old story. From Wednesday the 29th right through to Monday the 3rd of August, the wind picks up again, the period drops back to 7-8 seconds, and it’s all cross-onshore choppy junk. The swell stays around 5 ft to 7 ft, but the quality is just not there. The combined energy fluctuates but never makes up for the wind. There’s a gap of several days with no real recommendations, and honestly, the whole 16 days feels like a blank run. For this area, a stretch like this isn’t unusual – it’s just how it goes sometimes.

If you’re desperate, that Tuesday the 28th of July morning is your best bet – maybe you’ll snag a clean one if the wind drops lighter. But for now, I’d be looking at kite surfing with that constant side-onshore breeze, because paddle surfing is a tough ask. Stay tuned, forecasts can change.

Rusty.

Read more