Kailua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here. Let’s be blunt: the next 16 days at Kailua Beach are a real heartbreaker for a surfer. The raw ingredients of swell are there, but the wind is utterly relentless, and it’s coming from the worst possible direction. This is a point break that’s exposed to the NE, and it’s getting hammered by a constant NE to E trade wind flow. That means nearly every session is cross-onshore, onshore, or just plain lumpy and choppy. The forecast is a long, frustrating stretch of poor surf conditions, with barely a window of hope.

We kick off right now, on Wednesday the 2nd. The morning has a 7ft ENE swell with a short, weak 8-second period, but it’s completely ruined by a 19 mph cross-onshore wind. The water is a warm 81°, which is about average for this time of year. The wave energy is moderate, sitting at 635, but it’s all just wind-blown mess. Poor surf is the only way to describe it.

This pattern locks in. Thursday the 3rd is more of the same: 7ft to 7ft ENE swell, but the wind picks up to 22 mph, straight onshore, with a period dropping to 7 seconds. The wave energy bumps up to 551, but it’s unsurfable. Friday the 4th gets a little interesting in the afternoon, with a 4ft E swell but a long 14-second period, pushing the energy to 886. The wind is still onshore though, so it’s just a pulsing, lumpy mess. Saturday the 5th morning sees the energy climb to 968 with a 4ft E swell at 14 seconds, but the wind is still 16 mph cross-onshore. This is a prime example of a long-period groundswell that would be epic at a reef or point, but here it’s just getting chopped up.

The real gut punch comes Saturday afternoon: a 7ft ENE swell at 13 seconds, with a combined energy of 1706—that’s strong wave energy. But the wind is onshore at 16 mph. For a point break, that’s a total write-off. Sunday the 6th through Monday the 7th keep the energy high (over 1000) but the wind stays onshore, making it all a frustrating exercise in watching from the beach.

Then, a tiny flicker of hope. On Tuesday the 8th, the wind swings to the SSE, blowing 28 mph in the morning and 22 mph in the afternoon. This is actually a cross-offshore wind for this break. The morning has a 7ft E swell (7 seconds) and the afternoon a 6ft ENE swell (11 seconds). The water is still clean. The score is a 1 out of 10, which is “marginal.” It’s not good, but it’s the only day in the entire 16-day window where the wind isn’t ruining everything. A 7ft wave at a point break is solid, but it’s a big one—over 8ft is expert-only, so this is on the edge of being too much for intermediates. The real issue is the swell direction is E, not the optimum NE. Still, if you’re desperate, this is the only shot.

The rest of the forecast is a slow, sad decline. From Wednesday the 9th to Thursday the 17th, the swell drops off, the energy falls to the 150-550 range, and the wind stays stubbornly cross-onshore from the ENE. There are a few days from the 12th to the 14th with light 6 mph winds, but they’re still cross-onshore, and the swell is small (3ft to 6ft) and short-period. The break is described as “fairly consistent,” which is true—there’s nearly always some swell—but it doesn’t matter when the wind is this bad.

Honestly, the only thing that stands out over the entire 16 days is that Tuesday the 8th. It’s the only day with clean, cross-offshore wind. But it’s a one-day wonder, and the swell direction isn’t ideal. If you’re a kite surfer, this entire period looks like a playground with that consistent cross-onshore wind and decent wave energy. For paddling? It’s a tough stretch. Keep your eyes on the forecasts, because it tends not to stay this poor for long. But for now, I’d say sit this one out.

Rusty.

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