Kailua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for your neck of the woods. I gotta be straight with you – this 16-day window looks grim. We’ve got a long stretch of poor surf conditions ahead at Kailua Beach, and it’s not even a case of “just wait for the next pulse.” This is a blank run that’s pretty normal for the area when the trade winds lock in. Let’s walk through it.

The first record we’ve got is for Thursday morning, 6th August. There’s a bit of swell in the water – 4ft from the ENE with a short period of 8 seconds – but the wind is howling out of the east at 12 mph, blowing cross-onshore. It’s a choppy, messy affair. The combined wave energy is moderate at 242, but it’s all for nothing. The water sits at 80°, which is about average for the time of year, but you won’t be caring about that when you’re staring at blown-out junk.

That sets the tone for the whole first week. Thursday afternoon, Friday, Saturday – it’s all the same story. The wind stays onshore or cross-onshore, never dropping below 12 mph, and often pushing 15 to 19 mph. The swell height bounces between 3ft and 5ft, but the period is short – 5 to 6 seconds – meaning weak, disorganised waves. The energy readings are mostly in the low to mid hundreds, which is moderate, but it’s all wind-slop. By Sunday morning, 9th August, the swell picks up to 6ft with a period of 7 seconds, and the energy hits 344, but the wind is still cross-onshore at 15 mph. It’s a lumpy mess.

Monday and Tuesday of the second week? Same deal. Cross-onshore winds, 4ft to 5ft of short-period ENE swell. The energy stays moderate, but the “poor surf conditions” tag is stuck on every single entry. There’s no let-up.

Now, around Thursday, 14th August, things get a bit more interesting in size, but not in quality. The swell jumps to 7ft on Friday morning, then 8ft that afternoon, and by Saturday, 15th August, we’re looking at 10ft from the ENE with a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is strong – 1102 on Saturday morning, peaking at 1370 that afternoon. But here’s the kicker: the wind is still cross-onshore at 22 mph, and it’s described as “fresh cross-onshore and lumpy.” That’s not surfable for a paddle board. At that size, with that wind, this setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. It’s too big for beginners – definitely over 5ft – and at 10ft, it’s only for experts, but the wind is ruining it.

That big swell lingers through Sunday, 16th August, still 10ft with a 9-second period and energy over 1200, but the wind is still strong. By Monday, 17th August, it drops to 8ft, but the wind is still cross-onshore or onshore. The pattern doesn’t break until the very end of the window, around Wednesday, 19th August, when the swell drops back to 6ft, but the wind stays up.

There is no standout session in this entire run. Not a single one. The wind is the enemy here – it’s relentless. The swell direction is ENE, which is straight onshore for Kailua Beach, and the optimum swell direction is NE, so it’s not even a good angle. The break is a point, exposed and fairly consistent, but when the wind is this bad, it doesn’t matter. Crowds are possible at times, but honestly, why would anyone be out there?

So, I’ll say it plain: there are no good surf options in this 16-day window. The guidance is a washout. Sometimes the forecast changes, and it tends not to stay poor for long, but this stretch is a real dud. Keep your board in the car and wait for the trades to ease.

Rusty.

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