Kailua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve got to be straight with you – this 16-day window is a tough one for Kailua Beach (Kailua-Beach). It’s a point break that likes a NE swell, and while we’ve got swell on the way, the wind is a bastard for most of it, keeping things messy. The water temp is sitting at a toasty 81°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no dramas there.

We kick things off Tuesday the 25th of August with a 6ft east swell, but it’s short period at 6 seconds and the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-onshore. It’s lumpy, choppy, and just not worth paddling out for. The energy is weak, sitting at 235. That sets the tone for the whole first week, honestly. Wednesday through Sunday, it’s the same story: 5ft to 6ft east-northeast swell, period stuck between 6 and 7 seconds, and moderate to fresh onshore or cross-onshore winds. The combined energy climbs a bit, hitting 368 on the Saturday, but it’s still weak, and the surf is poor. This is a full week of no-go.

Moving into the second week, we hit Monday the 1st of September. The swell holds around 6ft to 6ft from the east-northeast, and the period finally stretches to 8 seconds on Tuesday morning. The energy is starting to build – it’s a moderate 419 on Tuesday morning – but the wind is still onshore, blowing 12 to 16 mph. The surf conditions are still flagged as poor. That keeps going through Thursday the 3rd, with the energy hitting a moderate 570 on the Thursday morning, but the 5ft east-northeast swell is still getting chopped up by a cross-onshore breeze.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. On Friday the 4th of September, the swell drops right back to 3ft, but the period jumps to a very long 14 seconds from the east. The combined energy is a strong 526 – that’s groundswell quality. But the wind is still onshore at 16 mph, and the conditions are listed as poor. This is a classic case of a long-period groundswell, which can be great for a point break like Kailua Beach – it’ll give you better shaped waves and longer lulls between sets – but the onshore wind is going to spoil it. It stays that way into Saturday the 5th, with that long-period groundswell (13 seconds) and 5ft to 6ft swell, and the energy is very strong, hitting 868 on Saturday morning and peaking at 923 on Saturday afternoon. But again, the wind is onshore. Sunday the 6th is the same: 6ft at 13 seconds, very strong energy at 889, but onshore wind.

The last few days of the outlook, from Monday the 7th to Wednesday the 9th of September, see the swell drop back to 4ft to 5ft, the period shortening to 9-11 seconds, and the wind is cross-onshore or onshore, with the energy still moderate to strong. The conditions are poor to messy, with a risk of thunderstorms on the Monday and Tuesday.

Bottom line: there is no standout session in this entire 16-day period for Kailua Beach. The onshore wind is relentless, and even when the swell quality improves with a very long period groundswell, the wind kills it. If you had to pick the best of a bad lot, I’d keep an eye on Saturday the 5th of September. That 6ft, 13-second groundswell with very strong energy (923) has potential for that point, but it’s a gamble with the onshore breeze. For now, it’s a waiting game. The consistency is fairly consistent for the area, so it won’t stay poor forever, but this run is a blank one. Stay patient.

Rusty.

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