Kailua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle. We've got a solid run of onshore and cross-onshore winds messing up what little swell is out there. It's going to be a waiting game.

Right out of the gate, this Saturday morning (August 15th), it’s a write-off. We're looking at a blustery 31 mph onshore breeze and a lumpy 12ft of easterly windswell. That’s not surf; that’s a washing machine. The energy is strong, but it’s all over the shop, and the weather gods are throwing rain showers and even a thunderstorm risk at us. Not the time.

The whole first week is pretty much the same story. We’ve got surf, but it’s poor quality. The wind stays mostly cross-onshore from the east-northeast, chopping up everything. The swell eases off from that initial pulse down to a dribble by the middle of the week. The water temp is sitting at 81° which is about average for this time of year, so when it does glass off, you won't need a thick suit.

There's a glimmer on the 19th and 20th, but it's too small to get excited about and the wind is still messy. Nothing on offer here. This is a stretch where you’re better off finding something else to do. The conditions stay poor through the 21st and into the next weekend, with tiny, weak swell and onshore breezes. It’s a long, frustrating stretch with no real windows.

Now, pay attention, because things start to get interesting in the second week. The energy starts to build again from the 26th and 27th of August. It’s still coming from the east, but this is looking more promising. We’re seeing some longer period energy (17-18 seconds), which means proper groundswell, but it’s still going to be fighting that onshore wind. With that size, over 5ft, it's already pushing past the beginner zone, and it's going to be a bit of a handful, especially as the onshore wind will keep it bumpy. The wave energy kicks up to a strong 1580 on the Thursday morning. The potential is there for Kailua Beach to have some shape on the points, but we need that wind to ease off.

The real standout is shaping up for the 30th of August. We've got a bigger pulse, with swell expected to hit 8ft to 10ft from the east-northeast. The energy is going to be very strong, with values jumping over 2452. This is a lot of water moving. Keep in mind, this size is not for the faint-hearted, this is expert territory. The issue is, the wind is still forecast to be on it. So, it might be a case of the swell being there but the conditions being a full-on battle. If the wind was offshore, it would be absolutely firing, but as it stands, this is a promise of size, not necessarily of clean waves. This spot is a point break, and with that long-period energy, it could line up. But with that onshore wind, expect it to be a heavy, challenging session. Don't bring the log. In fact, if this forecast holds, the east-facing beaches here might be more interesting for the kite surfing crew than for us paddle surfers.

Overall, there is almost nothing on the cards for the next week, and the second week is all about one big, promising, but wind-blown pulse at the end. Lock in your gear for the 30th and keep your fingers crossed for a shift in the wind.

Rusty.

Read more