Kailua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – this 16-day window for Kailua Beach is a tough one. The wind is our enemy, and it’s almost always onshore or cross-onshore, messing up what could be some decent-sized swell. The overall pattern is a long, drawn-out period of poor to marginal surf conditions, with a lot of chop and lumpy water. The wave energy is moderate at best, and the quality just isn't there for a good paddle session.

The forecast starts on the 21st of July. We’re looking at an ENE wind blowing 6 to 12 mph, with swell around 5 ft to 4 ft. The period is a short 7 seconds, which is weak and crumbly. The wave energy is a middling 217-218, but the wind kills it. The water temp is about average for the time of year.

This grim pattern holds through the 27th. The wind stays on from the ENE, gusting up to 22 mph, with swell bumping up to 7 ft. The energy climbs into the moderate range (hitting 706 on the 25th), but with the wind so strong, it's just a messy, blown-out washing machine. Not a good look for a point break that needs clean conditions.

The best chance of anything worthwhile comes around the 28th of July. We get a bit of a break in the wind, with a lighter NE breeze at 9 mph going onshore. The swell is a solid 7 ft from the E, with a period of 14 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, and the energy is strong at 1730. The forecast says "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions," scoring a 2 out of 10. It’s not perfect, but it's the only window where the conditions might line up for a session. The 29th looks similar, with a 7 ft swell from the ENE and a 12-second period, but the wind backs off a bit. The energy is still strong, but it's still marginal.

After that, the wind lightens up a bit through the 30th and 31st, but the swell drops off. We get a 5 ft swell on the 30th morning with a light NNE breeze, but the period drops to 10 seconds, and the energy fades. By the 31st, we’re looking at small 3 ft swell with a cross-onshore wind again.

The first week of August sees a mix of onshore wind and a small, fading swell. There’s a long-period 19-second swell on the 2nd, but it’s only 2 ft and the wind is up. The energy is moderate, but it's too small to do anything with. The second week of the outlook is flat and quiet, with small 3 ft to 4 ft swells and moderate breezes.

So, the standout? If you’re desperate, the 28th of July is your best bet. That 7 ft, 14-second E groundswell with a lighter NE wind might just offer a few cleaner waves. But it’s only a marginal call, and it could be a bit of a gamble. The crowds at Kailua Beach are said to be "sometimes" there, so you might have some company. For the rest of the window, it’s a tough slog. The swell is on offer, but the wind keeps it ugly. For a point break that needs an offshore wind, this setup looks far more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Rusty.

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