Kailua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the surf for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, it’s a pretty grim stretch ahead. The first thing you need to know is that there’s no good surf on offer until the very end of the run. The whole 16-day window is a write-off for quality waves, with one possible exception right at the tail end. The first week and a half is just a constant battle with onshore and cross-onshore winds, choppy conditions, and sloppy, short-period swell.

We’re looking at Kailua Beach, a point break that’s exposed to the NE. The water temp is sitting at 79°F, which is about average for this time of year. Nothing special there.

Over the first week, from Sunday the 12th through to the 23rd, it’s the same story every day. Winds are hammering out of the ENE at 15 to 18 mph, sometimes stronger. The swell is coming from the ENE to E, with heights ranging from 3 ft to 7 ft, but the period is a pathetic 6 to 8 seconds. That’s short-period, wind-affected junk. The combined wave energy is weak to moderate, sitting between 120 and 471 – not enough to get excited about. The wind state is either directly onshore or cross-onshore, making it choppy and lumpy. There’s a lot of rain showers and clouds in the mix too. For a point break, this setup is a complete bust. It’s not even worth paddling out for.

The second week doesn't get much better. The wind keeps blowing from the ENE, still strong, and the swell stays small and weak. The period does bump up to 14 seconds on the 26th, which is a long period groundswell, but the swell height is only 3 ft. The energy jumps up to 585, but with the consistent onshore wind, it’s still going to be a messy, blown-out mess. That spot is a point break, which can handle a long period, but not with that wind.

Now, the only possible standout – and I mean *possible* – is on Monday the 27th of July. The morning sees a 7 ft ENE swell with an 8-second period and a combined energy of 929. That’s moderate energy, but it's still cross-onshore. Then on the afternoon of the 27th, we get a 7 ft NE swell with an 8-second period and a massive energy reading of 1123. The wind finally swings to a more favourable NE direction and becomes onshore, which is still not ideal, but it’s the cleanest we’ve seen. The forecast is described as "marginal," not good. It’s the only time in the whole 16 days where you might find something rideable, but it’s still going to be a battle with the wind and the short period. For a spot that’s fairly consistent, I’d say it’s a long shot with a lot of promise for a few clean waves if the wind holds. But don’t hold your breath. Crowds are possible at Kailua, and with nothing else on the menu, it’ll be packed.

So, to sum it up: the next 15 days are a total write-off. The 27th offers a glimmer of hope, but it’s a long way off and the forecast is shaky. Keep your eyes on it, but don’t clear your schedule.

Rusty.

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