Kailua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s on the table for Kailua Beach.

Straight up, the outlook over the next 16 days is pretty grim. We’ve got a long stretch of poor surf conditions with onshore and cross-onshore winds dominating, making for lumpy, choppy, and generally messy waves. The water temp is sitting at 81°F which is right about average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

Kailua Beach is a point break, exposed to swell from the NE direction. The swell direction stays mostly from the ENE, which lines up okay, but the real problem is the wind. From Friday the 4th right through the first week, it’s blowing hard from the ENE at 15-22 mph, right onshore or cross-onshore. The combined swell energy hits some pretty high numbers—like 1705 on Saturday the 5th morning—but with that wind, it’s gonna be a blown-out mess. That’s way too much wind for a clean session. The swell period on that Saturday is 14 seconds, a nice groundswell, but it’s wasted on a beach break in these conditions.

There are a couple of days that look a little more promising, but they’re still marginal. On Tuesday the 8th, we get a shift: the wind goes cross-offshore from the S and SSE, with speeds dropping to 9-12 mph. That’s clean wind. The swell is 5-6 ft from the ENE with a period of 10-11 seconds, and the combined energy is moderate (732-949). For a point break, that could be rideable, but the score is still low—only a 2 out of 10. It’s a window of clean-ish surf, but it’s not gonna be pumping. If you’re desperate, hit the morning session on Tuesday the 8th.

After that, it’s back to onshore junk and long gaps. The second week is especially bad: from Thursday the 10th all the way through Saturday the 19th, it’s almost non-stop onshore wind, solid swell size (6 ft to 8 ft), but with short periods (7-9 seconds) and poor surf conditions. The 15th of September shows 8 ft swell from the ENE with a 9-second period and onshore wind. For a point break, that short period won’t wrap well, and the size makes it expert-only territory, but the wind will trash it anyway.

Honestly, the best on offer is that Tuesday the 8th. It’s not a standout in the usual sense, but it’s the only time the wind gives you a break. The rest of the period is a write-off. If you’re a kite surfer, that first week with the strong ENE wind and big swell might be more interesting, but for paddle surfing, it’s a hard pass.

Keep an eye on it—forecasts can change, but this one looks like a long stretch of flat or messy.

Rusty.

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