Kailua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. If you’re looking at Kailua Beach on Oahu, I’ve got to be honest with you – the entire 16-day outlook is a tough one. We’ve got a long stretch of poor surf conditions ahead, and the forecast doesn’t offer any standout windows for a proper paddle session.

The overall pattern is dominated by a persistent ENE swell, but it’s got some serious issues. The wind is the main problem. For the first week, from Sunday afternoon, July 5th, all the way through to Monday, July 13th, we’re looking at a nasty onshore to cross-onshore breeze from the ENE, blowing at 15 to 22 mph. That’s a fresh breeze, and it’s going to put a choppy, lumpy lid on the ocean. The swell is coming in consistently at 6 ft to 7 ft, but with a short period of only 7 to 8 seconds, it’s gonna be a bumpy, disorganised mess. The combined swell energy is moderate, ranging from 286 to 565 (moderate wave energy), but it’s all wind-driven chop. The water temp is sitting at 80°, which is about average for the time of year, but that’s the only nice thing I can say.

The middle of the period, from Monday, July 14th, to Thursday, July 16th, sees the swell drop a little, to around 5 ft to 6 ft, but the wind stays on it. The pattern is the same: onshore and cross-onshore moderate breezes, keeping the waves messy. The combined energy drops a bit, with values around 210 to 290 (weak to moderate wave energy), but it’s still not surfable.

Then we get a slight change into the second week. On Friday, July 17th, and Saturday, July 18th, the swell picks back up to 6 ft to 7 ft, with a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy even spikes to 664 (moderate wave energy) on Friday morning. But the wind is still on it, blowing 15 to 19 mph from the ENE. The vibe is the same: poor surf conditions. The wind finally shifts to just “onshore” on the 17th, but it’s still a strong breeze.

The final stretch, from Sunday, July 19th, through Monday, July 20th, is more of the same. Swell around 6 ft to 6 ft, with a 7-second period, and a moderate to fresh onshore wind. The combined energy is weak to moderate, at 284 to 346.

So, the truth is, there are no good surf options in this 16-day window. Kailua Beach is a point break that’s exposed to the NE swell, which is the right direction, but the wind is just wrong. The entire period is a write-off for a decent paddle. The setup, with the strong onshore wind and decent size swell, might actually look more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing right now. It’s a long blank run, but sometimes that’s the name of the game here. Forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it, but this one’s a tough pill to swallow.

Rusty.

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