Kailua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s happening for this stretch of coast.

To be straight with you, the next couple of weeks are looking pretty rough. We’re staring down a long stretch of poor conditions that just won’t let up. The northeast trade winds are going to be blowing hard and that’s messing everything up. The water temperature is sitting at about 81° — that’s average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real surf you could even consider is a long way off, on Thursday, the 3rd of September. Before that, it’s a total write-off. From now until then, you’re looking at a solid 9-day gap with zero recommendations. The winds are just too strong and onshore or cross-onshore, making everything lumpy and choppy. The swell is mostly short-period windswell coming from the east, around 6-8 seconds, which is pretty weak for a point break, and the combined energy is moderate at best—like 272-370 in the early days, building a bit but still not clean.

The only faint glimmer of hope comes on Thursday morning, September 3rd, at Kailua Beach (point). Even then, it’s only marginal. The swell is small at 4ft from the east-northeast, with a period of 7 seconds. The wind is light from the east-southeast, which is cross-on, but at least it’s a light breeze, so the surface won’t be completely trashed. The combined energy is quite high at 447, but the quality is just not there. This is a spot that is fairly consistent, but with these conditions, it’s more of a session for the committed.

After that, the rest of the outlook gets messy again. On Friday, September 4th, the swell picks up a bit to 5-6ft from the east with a longer period of 10 seconds, but the wind stays cross-on or onshore with a moderate breeze, so it’s going to be choppy. The energy is strong (552-674), but it’s not clean. From September 5th onward, the swell stays around 5-7ft, mostly from the east-northeast, with periods building to 11-12 seconds, which is a proper groundswell. The energy gets very strong, hitting 843-1072, which is impressive. But here’s the kicker: the wind is still cross-onshore or onshore, and the reports say “poor surf conditions” every time. For a point break like Kailua Beach, a long period groundswell from the east-northeast isn’t the ideal direction (it does best with a NE swell), and with the wind messing it up, it’s just not going to shape up well. The waves are likely to be blown out and sectiony.

Bottom line: there is no standout in this 16-day window. The best you’ll find is a marginal, small, clean-ish morning on September 3rd. If you’re desperate, you could paddle out then, but don’t expect much. Given the consistent poor wind and constant onshore flow, this setup is honestly more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The waves are there, but the quality is not.

That’s it from me. Keep your eyes on the forecast, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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