Kailua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’.

To be straight with you, this 16-day stretch for Kailua Beach is a rough one. The whole run is pretty much a write-off for a decent paddle session. The wind is locked in from the ENE almost the entire time, often a fresh breeze, and most of that is either blowing straight onshore or cross-onshore. That means lumpy, choppy, blown-out conditions. The water temp is sitting at 81° with a +0.7° anomaly, so pretty average for this time of year, nothing wild.

Right from the start on Friday the 28th of August, we’ve got 5ft of short-period, 6-second windswell from the ENE with the wind howling onshore at 19 mph. It’s a mess. The combined swell energy is only 239, so weak stuff that’s all wind chop. Saturday and Sunday don’t get any better – still that same short-period bump, still onshore or cross-onshore wind, and the energy climbs into the 300s, but that’s just more messy, weak wave energy.

We roll into Monday the 31st, still 7ft but period only 7-8 seconds, and the energy is pushing into the 400s, which is still fairly weak for that size. The wind isn’t letting up. By the start of September, things get a bit bigger – 8ft on the Tuesday morning, but it’s still that short-period windswell, and it’s still onshore. The energy jumps to 654, which is moderate, but the quality is just not there.

There’s a bit of a tease around Friday the 4th of September where the period jumps to 11-12 seconds, pushing the energy into the 1000s – that’s strong for a groundswell – with faces around 7-7ft. But here’s the kicker: the wind is still cross-onshore or onshore, and it’s still a fresh breeze. That’s a groundswell getting wrecked. For a point break like Kailua Beach, that longer period might have given some clean lines, but not in this wind.

From the 7th of September, the swell really starts cranking. We’re seeing 10ft on Monday, then 12ft on Tuesday, with energy in the 1000-1600 range. That’s proper strong wave energy, but the wind is still a strong breeze onshore at 25 mph. That’s blown-out, messy, and at that size, it’s only for experts anyway – and even they aren’t going to enjoy it. By Thursday the 10th, things get dangerous: gale-force winds of 43 mph from the ESE and SE, completely blowing it out or making it a cross-shore nightmare. That’s kite-surfing territory if anything, not for a paddle surfer.

The last couple of days, the 11th and 12th of September, the swell starts to drop back to 5ft and then 3ft, with the wind easing but still cross-onshore or cross. Energy drops back into the 200-300 range. Still not worth paddling out.

Look, there is no standout session in this whole 16-day run. It’s a blank stretch. For this area, a long onshore wind event like this does happen, and sometimes the forecast just locks in poor conditions. Keep an eye on it, because a shift in wind direction could turn this into something, but as it stands right now, give the board a rest.

Rusty.

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