Kailua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is a tough one, folks. I’m looking at the whole 16-day window for Kailua Beach, and I gotta be straight with you—it’s a real struggle. The setup here is a point break, exposed to the NE, and the optimum swell direction is NE. But the problem is the wind. For almost the entire run, we’ve got a moderate to fresh breeze out of the ENE, which is either a cross-onshore or a straight onshore wind. That’s blowing right into the face of the swell, making everything choppy and lumpy. You’ll be paddling into a mess.

The water temperature is sitting at 79°, which is basically spot on for this time of year—nothing unusual there.

We start off on Friday, July 17th, with some small, weak energy. The swell is coming from the E at 4 ft with a short, weak period of 6 seconds, and the combined energy is a measly 179, so it’s weak. The wind is already a cross-onshore mess. No good. That pattern sticks right through the weekend and into the next week. Saturday the 18th sees the swell bump up to 6 ft, but with that fresh cross-onshore wind, it’s just a lumpy, blown-out wall. The combined energy gets up to 288, but it’s all for nothing with that wind.

Sunday the 19th through Tuesday the 22nd we get a little switch to an onshore wind, but the swell is still small and short-period, never getting above 5 ft. The energy is moderate, topping out at 305 on Sunday morning, but the quality is still "poor surf conditions." It’s just not coming together.

Then from Wednesday the 23rd through Saturday the 26th, the wind swings back to a cross-onshore and the swell builds a bit, hitting 6 ft on Saturday the 25th with a combined energy of 468. But again, that fresh breeze just ruins it. The wave comment for every single one of these is "poor surf conditions."

Now, here’s the kicker. Starting Sunday, July 26th, we get a massive spike in energy. The combined energy jumps to 899 on Sunday morning, and then 1120 on Sunday afternoon, all the way up to 2740 on Tuesday, July 28th. The swell is coming from the E, and the period goes into the very long range—16 seconds and even 14 seconds. That’s groundswell, and it’s got power. But the wind is still a cross-onshore or onshore fresh breeze. The swell heights are getting big too, with Tuesday morning showing 8 ft. That’s expert territory, and with the wind putting a chop on it, it’s not going to be a fun paddle. The wave comment is still "poor surf conditions" for all of these.

The only glimmer of a chance comes on Thursday, July 30th. The morning session shows a "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions" with a 1 out of 10 score. The swell is 6 ft from the ENE with a 12-second period, combined energy of 1006 (strong), and the wind is finally a light onshore breeze from the NE at 12 mph. It’s not clean, but it’s the least bad option in the whole window. The rest of the week continues with poor conditions and dropping energy.

So, to sum it up: this is a 16-day blank run for quality surf. The wind is the enemy here, and it never lets up. There are no standouts. The best you can hope for is a session on the morning of July 30th, where the conditions are merely "marginal" instead of "poor." For a spot like this, a blank run like this is just part of the deal with the trade winds. Things can change, but right now, I’d leave the board at home and maybe go for a swim.

Rusty.

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