Kailua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is a tough one to call. I’ve been staring at the charts for Kailua Beach (Oahu) and honestly, for the next week and a half, it’s looking pretty grim. The whole 16-day window is a real mixed bag, but mostly just a bag of not-so-great.

Right off the bat, Thursday the 20th is a total write-off. We’re looking at a tiny 3-foot NE swell with a short, weak 7-second period and the wind is onshore. The water’s sitting at a warm 80°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, but that’s the only nice thing I can say. The combined energy is a weak 128, so there’s just nothing to work with.

Friday the 21st through to the end of August is a long stretch of "poor surf conditions." The wind is constantly cross-onshore or onshore, sometimes a fresh breeze at 19 mph, which is going to chop everything up. The swell hangs around 3 to 6 feet, but it’s all short-period, wind-driven junk.

Then, around the 28th of August, the swell period starts to climb, hitting 16 seconds on the 28th morning and staying in the 14-16 second range for a few days. That’s proper groundswell, with the combined energy jumping up to 678 and even hitting 799 on the 30th afternoon. But the wind is still a problem – onshore and cross-onshore – so it’s going to be lumpy and messy. The swell is from the east, which is not the optimum direction for this point break, so it’s just not going to line up well.

The 31st of August and the 1st of September bring some serious size, with the swell hitting 8 feet, and the combined energy spiking massively to 1625 and 1477. But with the wind still onshore and the swell direction still not ideal, this is going to be a big, blown-out mess. It’s too big for beginners, and even for the experts, the conditions will be challenging.

Finally, there’s a tiny glimmer on the 3rd of September. The Thursday afternoon shows a cross-offshore wind from the SSE, light at 9 mph, and the wave comment says "clean." The swell is a modest 4 feet from the ENE with an 8-second period, and the combined energy is 295. It’s not going to be epic, but it’s the only clean session in the whole run. The Friday the 4th morning then goes back to cross-on and poor conditions.

So, the standout window, if you’re desperate, is the afternoon of Thursday the 3rd of September. The wind will be clean, and you’ll find some small, rideable waves at Kailua Beach. The rest of the 16 days? Honestly, the setup looks more interesting for a kite session than paddle surfing, given the consistent onshore winds and the lumpy, choppy conditions. A long, blank run like this is pretty normal for the area when the wind doesn’t play ball.

Rusty.

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