Kailua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: Kailua Beach is a beautiful stretch of sand, but for the next 16 days, it’s a tough slog for a decent surf. The water’s sitting around average for this time of year, nothing unusual there.

The outlook kicks off on Thursday the 23rd of July, but it’s not one to get excited about. We’ve got a mixed bag of swell from the ENE, coming in around 7 ft, but it’s short-period stuff at just 7 seconds, and the wind is a fresh cross-onshore at 22 mph. The energy is moderate (405), but the whole setup is lumpy and messy. That’s a theme that’ll stick around for a while.

Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th are more of the same, with the wind actually turning straight onshore by Saturday, blowing at 19 mph. The swell holds around 7 ft, but it’s still short-period and the wave energy climbs a bit (555 on Saturday morning), but with onshore wind, the surface is just going to be sloppy. Not the kind of day you paddle out for.

Sunday the 26th sees the wind staying onshore, with the swell dropping slightly to 6 ft but the energy is up to 660 – still moderate, but the wind is a problem. We finally get a shift on Monday the 27th. The wind is still onshore, but the swell drops to 4 ft and the period stretches out to 14 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, and the energy is solid (811). But here’s the rub: long-period swell like that, coming from the E, can break a bit too straight at a beach break like Kailua. It’ll be better shaped for sure, but the onshore wind is still going to mess with the face.

The standout in the whole window, if you can call it that, is Tuesday the 28th of July. The swell jumps back to 6 ft, still from the ENE, with a period of 13 seconds – that’s long-period energy. The wave energy is strong (1217), the biggest we’ll see. The wind is still onshore at 12-16 mph, but it’s a moderate breeze, not a howler. The conditions are still “poor” according to the report, but that’s the closest we get to something with push. It’s still a bit lumpy, but for a strong surfer, there’ll be some grunt in those waves.

Wednesday the 29th is a drop-off with the swell down to 5 ft, and the wind swings cross-onshore, making it choppy. The energy is moderate (699), but it’s not lining up.

Then we hit a real lull. From Thursday the 30th of July through to Friday the 7th of August, the swell is all over the place, mostly under 5 ft, with periods dropping back to 7-16 seconds. The wind is almost always onshore or cross-onshore, and the energy is weak to moderate. Thursday the 30th morning has a brief moment of light cross-shore wind from the ESE and a 4 ft swell, but it’s marginal at best.

The real highlight, promising but a long way off, is Monday the 3rd of August. The swell drops to just 3 ft, but the period is a massive 16 seconds. That’s very long-period groundswell. The energy is moderate (942). With that kind of period, the waves will have real shape and power, but they’ll be very straight at the beach. If you can find a rip or a bank, it’ll be a clean, long wall. The wind is still onshore at 16-19 mph, so it’s not glassy, but the underlying swell is promising.

The rest of that first week of August is much the same: small, short-period chop with onshore wind. Not worth dragging your board out for.

In short, there’s no standout, perfect day here. The closest we get is Tuesday the 28th of July for some raw power, or Monday the 3rd of August for that long, clean groundswell – but both are onshore. If you’re desperate for a paddle, aim for the 28th, but keep your expectations low. For beginners, the swell is often over 5 ft and the conditions are messy, so it’s not a learner-friendly window. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing on most days.

Rusty.

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