Kailua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, Kailua Beach. Gotta call it as I see it, and mate, it's a tough stretch ahead. Over the next 16 days, the conditions are looking pretty ordinary. The wind is almost always coming out of the east or east-northeast, and when it's not directly onshore, it's cross-onshore, messing up any chance of clean waves. The water temp's about average for the time of year, nothing unusual there.

We start off Monday the 17th with a 5ft swell from the east-northeast, but it's a short 8-second period. The wind's a fresh 19 mph cross-onshore, which is just gonna be lumpy and ugly. Combined wave energy is 301 (moderate). Honestly, it's poor surf conditions, and that's the story for a while.

Tuesday the 18th through to Friday the 21st see the swell dropping to 2ft-4ft, still from the ENE. The period stays short, 6-8 seconds, which means weak, junky waves. The wind is a constant cross-onshore, light to gentle breeze at best, but still enough to keep things choppy. Combined energy drops as low as 83 (weak) on Friday. There's nothing here to get excited about.

The weekend of the 22nd and 23rd sees a slight bump. Saturday the 22nd has a 4ft swell, and Sunday the 23rd pushes to 6ft, but the period is still a dismal 6-7 seconds. The combined energy climbs back to 281 (moderate) on Sunday, but with the wind still cross-onshore at 16 mph, it's going to be a choppy mess.

The following week from Monday the 24th to Wednesday the 26th, the swell builds. It's 6ft on Monday, 7ft on Tuesday, and 7ft on Wednesday, all from the ENE. The period is still only 7-8 seconds. The wind picks up, hitting 16-19 mph. By Tuesday the 25th, the combined energy is 478-579 (moderate), but the conditions are "poor" or "lumpy". This is starting to get a bit strong for beginners, but it's not clean enough for the experienced crew either.

Now, Thursday the 27th is when it gets interesting, but not in a good way for paddle surfing. We're looking at an 8ft to 10ft swell from the east with an 8-second period. The wind is a moderate, 12 mph cross-onshore. The combined energy is massive, 935-977 (strong), but the wave comment is still "poor surf conditions". For this beach setup, this kind of wind and short-period, big swell just means a washing machine. It's looking way more like a kite-surfing day than a surf day.

The real standout, if you can call it that, is Friday the 28th and Saturday the 29th. The swell hits 12ft from the ENE on Friday, and the period stretches out to 11 seconds. The combined energy goes through the roof: 2716 and 2509 (strong). The guidance gives this a 1/10 on Friday morning, which is as close as we get to a "maybe". But here's the catch: it's cross-onshore wind, 12-16 mph, and it's a beach break. With that long period swell, it'll be breaking fast and straight, tricky water. This is strictly for expert surfers, and even then, the wind is going to be a real problem. The swell drops to 8ft-10ft on Saturday, same story.

Finally, the last couple of days of August and into September, the swell backs off to 4ft-10ft, but the wind stays onshore. The period gets short again on the 31st, and on September 1st, it's 10ft from the east with a 10-second period, which is a drop of 1493 (strong), but the wind is 16 mph onshore. It's all "poor surf conditions."

So, the best of a bad bunch? No doubt, the morning of Friday the 28th of August is the only one with a pulse. The swell is pumping at 12ft east-northeast, 11-second groundswell, with that massive energy. But it's got a moderate cross-onshore wind, so it's going to be a battle. That's a day for the strongest and most experienced locals. For everyone else, it's a write-off.

The rest of the window is a long, blank stretch. No clean, workable surf on offer. The guides don't give us a single day with good conditions. It happens sometimes in this area. Forecasts can change, but until they do, I wouldn't be waxing your board for Kailua anytime soon.

Rusty.

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