Kailua Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s be straight about Kailua Beach. I’ve looked at the next 16 days, and it’s a tough stretch. The forecast is a long run of onshore or cross-onshore winds, mostly from the ENE, and the swell is coming from the same direction. That’s not the recipe for clean, lined-up waves. The water temp is sitting right around average for this time of year, which is fine, but the wind is the problem.

The first recommendation we get is for Thursday, July 9th. We’re looking at 7 ft of swell from the ENE, but the period is short at 8 seconds, and with a fresh 19 mph cross-onshore wind, it’s going to be lumpy and messy. The combined energy is moderate (477), but it’s wasted. That’s the story for the next week and a half. From Thursday the 9th right through to the end of Sunday the 19th, every single session is marked as poor surf conditions. The swell stays between 6 ft and 10 ft, but the wind is relentless. It’s a fresh breeze from the ENE, either directly onshore or cross-onshore, and the wave comment is always “poor surf conditions.” The energy builds up, like on the 18th when it hits 1050, but that size at 10 ft with a 19 mph onshore wind is just a washing machine. That’s not for paddling; that’s a kiteboarding zone if you’re into that.

There’s a little shift starting Monday, July 20th. The swell drops to 3 ft and the period jumps to 16 seconds – that’s a proper long-period groundswell. The energy is strong (886), but the direction is still from the E, and the wind is still onshore from the ENE at 19 mph. A long-period swell like that at a beach break like Kailua with onshore wind will just make it break straight and close out. Not a good look.

The only flicker of hope comes mid-week, July 21st through the 23rd, but it’s still the same story. The swell is small, 3 ft to 4 ft, with long periods from the E, but the wind just won’t let up. The combined energy drops off into the low hundreds by the 24th, and it’s a real fade-out.

So, what’s the best on offer? It’s a tough call. If I had to pick one, it’d be the morning of Wednesday, July 22nd. It’s clear, the swell is only 3 ft from the E with a period of 13 seconds, and the wind is a moderate 16 mph cross-onshore from the ENE. The energy is low (362), but the conditions are about as “least bad” as they get. It’s a small, cleanish day for a longboard, but it’s not a standout. The whole stretch is a dud.

The long gap here is real. There’s no good surf on offer for the entire 16-day window. The wind is the enemy, and the swell direction never matches up with what the break wants. It’s one of those spells where you just have to wait for a change in the weather pattern.

Rusty.

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