Joaquina Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s chew the fat on what’s brewing at Joaquina over the next couple weeks. Starts off pretty flat but there’s some fire later if you hold tight.

The water is 63°, which is about 3° colder than the usual for this time of year – a fair bit chillier. The first few days are nothing flash. Tuesday July 7th gives you a tiny 3ft swell from the SSE with a short period of 8 seconds and weak energy (220). A light cross-on breeze from the east at 3 mph kicks up little ripples. Not worth getting wet.

Wednesday the 8th has the swell dropping to 2ft, but the morning wind goes offshore from the northwest at 3 mph, so it’s clean. The afternoon picks up a bit with a cross-off breeze and an 11-second period ESE swell, moderate energy (203). Small but cleaner.

Thursday the 9th repeats – 2ft clean early, but the afternoon gets blown out by a 12 mph NNE wind. Poor.

Friday the 10th is a total dud. Swell rises to 3ft and 3ft with moderate energy (261–276), but the wind is cross-on from the south and SSW, making for choppy, messy conditions. Avoid.

Here’s where it gets interesting. Saturday the 11th morning sees a clean 4ft ESE swell with a solid 13-second period and strong energy (490). Offshore wind from the NNW at just 3 mph. That’s surfable with some push. The afternoon stays clean with a light cross-off breeze.

Sunday the 12th morning is the real gem. Glassy conditions with the wind dead calm from the SW, and a 4ft SE groundswell running at a long 13-second period. Energy is pumping at 678 – strong, quality energy. This will be clean, well-shaped, and lined up. That long period means the sets will have some time between them, making the paddle out easier, and on Joaquina’s sandbars it should link up nicely. Crowds are likely here, but for this quality, it’s worth competing for a wave.

Monday the 13th fades. The swell holds at 4ft but the period tanks to 7 seconds, killing the grunt. The afternoon gets choppy with 15 mph south winds. No good.

Mid-week from Tuesday the 14th to Thursday the 16th is small – 2ft to 3ft, mostly clean but weak. Thursday afternoon gets glassy with a 2ft SE swell if you want a quiet paddle.

Friday the 17th is messy again. Saturday the 18th morning brings glassy conditions with a 5ft south swell, but the period is a short 7 seconds – it’s just windswell. Energy is moderate (369). It’s a backup option, not a standout.

Sunday the 19th is small. Then Monday the 20th offers a consistent 5ft ESE swell with an 8-second period and moderate energy (346). Wind is clean cross-off from the north. Rideable.

Looking into the second week, Tuesday the 21st and Wednesday the 22nd hold the most potential. Tuesday morning shows a solid 5ft ESE swell with a 9-second period and very strong energy (733). The wind is a moderate 12 mph from the north, cross-off, keeping it clean. This is solid intermediate swell, pushing toward too big for beginners. Wednesday the 22nd keeps similar size (5–5ft) with a longer 11-second period and strong energy (511–494). Wind stays cross-off. These are promising, but being more than a week out, take them as a heads-up, not a guarantee.

Bottom line: Sunday the 12th morning is the session to lock in. Glassy, long-period groundswell, good energy. Tuesday the 21st morning is the other one to watch for size and power, if it holds.

Stay stoked,
Rusty

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