Joaquina Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, dialing in from the beach with a long look at what Joaquina has in store for us over the next couple of weeks. We've got a bit of a mixed bag, but there's some real magic hiding in there if you time it right.

First up, the overall picture. This is a sandbar break that's very consistent, so it rarely goes completely flat. But with an exposed setup, it catches everything. The next few days are a write-off thanks to some messy wind and junky swell, so don't even bother paddling out just yet. There's a quiet gap from now until Tuesday the 12th where the surf is mostly poor or marginal. Things start to look up from Tuesday afternoon, with a real standout window mid-week.

Let's talk about the water. It's sitting at 66°F and the anomaly is only +0.7°F, so that's totally normal for this time of year. Nothing weird going on there.

Okay, so the first real glimmer of hope comes Tuesday afternoon, the 11th of August. The wind goes glassy from the WSW, and we’ve got a clean 4ft SSE groundswell with a nice 12-second period. The combined energy is moderate at 451. It’s not huge, but it’ll be fun and clean. Then Wednesday morning the 12th keeps that trend going with offshore NNW wind and the same 4ft SSE swell at 12 seconds. Energy is a bit better at 492. Both these sessions are clean and workable.

But the true standout of the entire forecast is Thursday morning, the 13th of August. This is the one. We’ve got offshore wind from the NNW, a clean 4ft swell coming from the SE, and the period jumps to a very long 15 seconds. That’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy reading is 709 – solid moderate power. For a sandbar, a long period like that can make it a bit straight, but with offshore wind, Joaquina should handle it beautifully. Expect well-shaped, energetic lines with nice gaps between sets. This is the session to clear your schedule for.

Thursday afternoon on the 13th is also good – 4ft from the SSE at 14 seconds with a light cross-offshore breeze – another very good session.

After that, we get a bit of a lull. Friday the 14th gets a bit messy, and Saturday the 15th has a pulse of 7ft ESE swell, but it’s short-period windswell (8 seconds) and the cross-onshore wind makes it a messy, blown-out proposition. That kind of size with short period and onshore wind is not our friend. The energy hits 1044, which is strong, but it’s ugly power.

The following week (from the 17th onwards) drops right off. We see tiny, weak swell and mostly average conditions. There are a few glassy mornings, like Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st, but the swell is down around 3ft to 3ft. You could get a longboard out for a cruise, but it’s not going to get the heart pumping. There's another long period pulse (16 seconds) on Saturday the 22nd, but the swell is only 2ft, so it’s just not enough to push through.

To sum it up: suffer through the next few days, then get ready for Tuesday afternoon through Thursday the 13th. Thursday morning is the king of this forecast. After that, it’s a waiting game for the next real swell.

Stay stoked,
Rusty

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