Joaquina Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what the next couple of weeks are shaping up like for Joaquina.

First things first, the water temp is sitting at 67°F, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year. So no surprises there.

The pattern starts off a bit slow. We’ve got a few days of choppy, cross-onshore winds and messy conditions to get through. Saturday the 5th and Sunday the 6th are a write-off – light rain and fresh breezes making a mess of things. The swell is there but the wind is just ruining it. Monday the 7th is still only marginal at best.

Alright, the first real glimmer of hope shows up on Tuesday morning, the 8th. The wind swings offshore from the NW at just 3 mph, and the water goes clean. Swell is small, 3 ft from the SSE, but the combined energy is moderate (312). It’s not going to be epic, but it’ll be rideable and clean. That’s a surfable window.

Wednesday the 9th morning keeps that clean feel with a light cross-offshore breeze, and the swell bumps up a little in period to 12 seconds, giving it a bit more push. Again, small at 2 ft, but the quality is there.

Thursday the 10th morning is similar – clean, light wind, small energy. Not a standout, but a chance to get wet.

Now, if you can hold out, the real highlight of this outlook is Monday the 14th. The morning kicks off with glassy conditions – NNE wind at just 3 mph, flat calm. The swell comes in at 5 ft from the SE, with a 12-second period, and combined energy is strong (747). That’s a proper groundswell with good shape. The afternoon keeps it glassy, with 6 ft from the SE (713 energy). This is the best on offer – clean, fun, and with enough punch for intermediates. Because it’s a long period groundswell, it’ll be better shaped and have longer lulls between sets, making paddling out easier. But it’s a sandbar, so it might not be a perfect barrel machine. Still, this is the day to circle.

After that, things get a bit messy again. Tuesday the 15th sees the wind switch onshore, and the swell gets lumpy. Wednesday the 16th is back to cross-onshore junk. And by Thursday the 17th, we’ve got a 7 ft swell from the S, but with that same cross-onshore wind, it’s just a big, choppy mess – only for the experts, and even then it’s not clean.

The second week really dries up. From the 18th onward it’s small, messy, and mostly cross-onshore again. The 20th of September sees the swell drop to 2 ft with combined energy of only 71 – weak. Not much to get excited about.

So, the standout is Monday the 14th. Get on it if you can. The forecast confidence is good for that one since it’s not too far out. The rest of the window is a mixed bag of small, clean mornings and choppy, onshore afternoons. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing on the windy days.

Rusty.

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