Joaquina Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s break down what’s on the table for Joaquina over the next couple of weeks.

First up, we’re looking at a bit of a mixed bag for this famous sandbar. The water temp is sitting at 65°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The weekend starts off with some size. Saturday morning the 15th has a solid 7ft easterly swell rolling in, but it’s packing a moderate energy punch (968). The problem? The report says it’s actually too big for this break, and we’ve got some rain and a light onshore breeze. That’s a pass from me. The afternoon drops to 5ft but gets messy with cross-shore wind.

Sunday the 16th morning is the first real looker. We’ve got a 5ft easterly swell, period around 8 seconds, with a cross-offshore breeze making things clean. The energy is moderate (323). It’s not a massive day, but that clean, lined-up sandbar with offshore vibes? That’s where you want to be. Afternoon drops off to below 2ft and loses energy fast.

From Monday the 17th through to Wednesday the 19th, it goes flat. Tiny waves, poor conditions, nothing to write home about. That’s a solid four-day gap of no surf.

Thursday the 20th morning brings a tiny 2ft SSE swell, clean but weak energy (50). It’s surfable but very ordinary. Friday the 21st is equally small and not worth paddling out for.

Then we hit another lull. From Saturday the 22nd through Tuesday the 25th morning, the swell builds but the winds are all cross-onshore or cross, leaving the surf chopped and messy. The numbers on the 23rd and 24th show 5ft to 6ft SSE swells with strong energy (up to 756), but with onshore winds, it’s a choppy, bumpy mess. That’s more of a kitesurfer’s playground than a paddle surfer’s dream.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Tuesday the 25th afternoon is the standout for the whole outlook. We get a 4ft SSE groundswell with a long 12-second period and *glassy* conditions – a light northeast breeze making the surface like a lake. The energy is solid (443). That’s clean, long-period lines wrapping into Joaquina. You’ll have nice shape, but because it’s a long-period swell hitting a beach break, it might wall up a bit. Still, for that afternoon, it’s your best bet.

Thursday the 27th morning also looks clean with a 3ft SSE swell, 12-second period, and a light cross-offshore north breeze. Energy is moderate (310). It’s not as big as Tuesday, but it’ll be clean and fun.

After that, it fades. Friday the 28th and Saturday the 29th are back to tiny, poor surf, and Sunday the 30th shows some size returning (4ft) but with onshore wind again.

So, the takeaway: don’t bother this weekend. Wait for Tuesday the 25th afternoon for the glassy, long-period swell. That’s your one true standout.

Rusty.

Read more