Joaquina Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here with a look at Joaquina over the next couple of weeks. This is a tough stretch, no two ways about it. The first week is pretty average – small, cruddy conditions more often than not, with a few brief windows of glass that will have you scratching for a salvageable wave. The real standout is way out there on Thursday the 16th and Friday the 17th, but only for the right crew. Let’s get into it.

We start on Friday the 3rd with a messy cross-on southerly breeze at 19 mph and a 6 ft SSE swell that’s all lumpy and poor. Water temp is 62°, which is a notable 5° colder than usual – so be prepared. That fresh breeze and cross-onshore junk isn’t worth your time. The afternoon cleans up a bit with lighter wind, but it’s still marginal at best.

Saturday the 4th stays similar – small swell around 4 ft to 5 ft with a light cross-shore wind. The period stretches to 12 seconds, which is a good sign for shape, but the wind is never fully clean. You might get a few, but it’s nothing to write home about.

Sunday the 5th is where things get interesting. The morning is glassy with a 5 ft SSE swell at 11 seconds. That’s a clean, glassy setup – actually pleasant. The energy is moderate (496), and the wave comment says “expect good surf conditions.” This is the pick of the first week. The afternoon stays clean with a light cross-offshore breeze.

Monday the 6th drops right off. The swell fades to 3 ft to 3 ft, but with clean cross-offshore winds. The energy is weak (212-324). It’s more of a longboard or funboard day.

Tuesday the 7th is a write-off – a stormy cross-on southerly at 12 mph and a short-period 7-second swell at 4 ft. Choppy and poor. The afternoon is just as bad.

Wednesday the 8th and Thursday the 9th see tiny swell (2 ft to 3 ft) but with clean offshore or glassy conditions. You could get a few ankle-biters if you’re keen, but the combined energy is down to 104-183 – really weak.

Friday the 10th starts poor with cross-on wind, but the afternoon is a gem: glassy, 3 ft ESE swell with a long 12-second period, and “expect good surf conditions.” The energy is still low (210), so it’s small but clean.

Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th are a mixed bag. The swell picks up to 4 ft on Saturday, but winds are moderate. Sunday the 12th morning is glassy with a 3 ft swell at a very long 13 seconds – that’s groundswell, and at Joaquina (a sandbar break), that long period might make it a bit fat and straight. Still, it’s clean and the energy is moderate (364).

Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th are average – mostly cross-on winds and marginal surf. Tuesday the 14th morning is glassy with a 4 ft SSE swell at 11 seconds, which is a decent window for a session.

Wednesday the 15th has a clean offshore morning with a tiny 2 ft swell at 13 seconds – not much power, but clean.

Now here’s the standout. Thursday the 16th morning – this is the one to circle. A 7 ft S swell at 10 seconds, light offshore NNW wind at 6 mph, and the combined energy is a massive 1240 – that’s strong. The wave comment says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is a big, clean swell with offshore wind, but at 7 ft it’s getting into intermediate-to-experienced territory. The swell direction (S) doesn’t match the optimum SE direction, but with that size and offshore breeze, it’ll still pump. If you’re not confident in overhead waves, sit this one out.

Friday the 17th afternoon is also a big one – a 7 ft S swell with 1325 energy, but the wave comment says it’s predicted to be too big for this break. Moderate cross-offshore wind at 12 mph. This is only for experts, and even then, it might be a washing machine. The morning is smaller (5 ft) and clean but marginal.

After that, Saturday the 18th settles back to smaller conditions. The second week is all about that Thursday the 16th morning window.

So, bottom line: the first week is mostly average with a clean, glassy Sunday the 5th being the best of a so-so bunch. The real gold is on Thursday the 16th morning for experienced surfers – clean, offshore, solid swell. The 17th afternoon is too big for most. Crowds are “often” at Joaquina, so don’t expect solitude. Keep an eye on the forecasts, because it’s been a flat run and it’s bound to change.

Rusty.

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