Joaquina Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a seat. Rusty here, looking at the forecast for Joaquina over the next few weeks. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, so let’s break it down.

The first chunk of the window is a write-off. We’ve got some solid groundswell moving through early on, but the wind is just killing it. Sunday the 6th through to Monday the 7th is a total no-go with that strong cross-onshore breeze. The combined energy is moderate (623) on Sunday, but with 22 mph winds from the south, it's just a messy, lumpy, blown-out affair. Monday is a little lighter but still cross-on, so it’s not worth paddling out.

Things start to show a pulse of life on Tuesday morning, the 8th. The wind swings around to the northwest, going offshore, and we get a clean 3 ft swell from the SSE. The energy is moderate (225). It’s small, but it’s clean. That’s the first real window of opportunity. Tuesday afternoon is a bit of a letdown as the wind swings cross-off, so the morning session is the go.

We have a bit of a lull mid-week, with Wednesday and Thursday offering small, clean-ish waves, but nothing to write home about. The energy dips significantly.

Then, we get to the real standout. It’s not until much later, but it’s a beauty. Look at the 18th of September, a Friday morning. The wind is a slight air from the northwest, going offshore. We’ve got a solid 3 ft groundswell rolling in from the SSE with a very long period of 12 seconds. The energy is moderate (298). This is classic Joaquina. Clean, long-period lines that will push through nicely. The wind stays favorable through the afternoon, making it a clean, fun day.

Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th keep the good vibes going. The wind holds offshore or cross-off, and the swell stays consistent around 3 ft to 3 ft from the SSE with that long 12 to 13-second period. The combined energy hangs around the 270 to 370 range, which is solid for this setup. It’s not huge, but it will be clean and fun for a good session.

The water temp is sitting at 67°F, which is only 0.4° above the norm, so it’s about average for this time of year. No surprises there.

So, the best bet is clear: Friday the 18th of September is the true standout. That morning session with offshore winds and a clean, long-period groundswell is the one to circle. The 19th and 20th are also excellent calls for a clean weekend session.

Before that, the 8th of September is the only other decent option, but it’s small. The rest of the window is a story of cross-on wind and choppy conditions, especially from the 13th onwards when the energy gets strong (1770) but the wind ruins it. That’s a kiter’s day, not a surfer’s.

Stay sharp, and see you out there.

Rusty.

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