Joaquina Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s comin’ down the line for Joaquina. It’s a bit of a slow burner, but there’s a real nice payoff waiting for us if we’re patient.

The first week is mostly a write-off for any decent waves. From Sunday the 19th through to Wednesday the 23rd, we’re looking at tiny, weak swell with barely any energy to speak of – we’re talkin’ readings as low as 3 to 30 for the combined energy, which is just sad. You’ll be floating out there on a sea of flatness. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Things start to stir on Thursday the 23rd, but it’s messy. The swell finally shows up, hitting 5 ft by the afternoon, but it’s short period (8 seconds) and the wind is howling cross-onshore from the SSW. The combined energy jumps to 537, but it’s a choppy, blown-out mess. You’d be better off rigging a kite than paddling a board. That kind of wind and swell combo at a beach setup like Joaquina is more for the kite crew than us.

Friday the 24th afternoon is where the first real glimmer appears. The wind drops to glassy, the swell is a clean 4 ft from the SE with a 9-second period, and the combined energy is a solid 232. The conditions are glassy, which is a massive plus. It’s not a stand-out, but it’s the first time the ocean looks like it wants to play ball.

Then we hit a dry spell again. From Saturday the 25th through to Wednesday the 29th, the swell drops back under 3 ft and the energy is low. It’s mostly clean, but there’s just not enough push to get excited about.

Now, for the real standout. Strap yourselves in for the first week of August. On Saturday the 1st of August, the morning session is looking like the pick of the whole forecast. We’ve got a 4 ft swell from the SSE, but the period is a very long 15 seconds. That’s pure groundswell, folks. The combined energy is a massive 756, telling you there’s serious power in the water. The wind is glassy from the NNW. Clean, long-period groundswell at Joaquina? That’s the kind of morning that makes the whole waiting game worth it. Just be aware that with such a long period, the sets will be more walled-up and might be better for a more experienced crew. Crowds are likely here, so get in early.

Sunday the 2nd of August morning is a great backup. Another 4 ft swell, this time from the SE, with a 15-second period. The wind is glassy again, and the energy is 640. It’s a very similar setup to Saturday, just a touch smaller. That’s a beautiful weekend shaping up.

So, to wrap it up: the first ten days are a slog with tiny surf and mostly onshore mess. The only real bright spot in that first week is Friday the 24th afternoon. But if you’ve got patience, the first weekend of August – Saturday the 1st and Sunday the 2nd mornings – is where it’s at. Long-period, powerful groundswell with glassy conditions. That’s the gold.

Stay salty,
Rusty.

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