Joaquina Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down the next couple of weeks. It’s a slow start, but there’s a real sleeper hit waiting for us later on.

Right now, the ocean’s pretty flat with a weak SE swell. The combined wave energy is only 171, so it’s weak. The water temp is sitting at 65°, which is right on the money for average this time of year. The first few days are a total bust for any decent waves, with tiny surf and ordinary conditions.

Wednesday the 5th offers a brief moment of hope with glassy conditions in the morning at Joaquina (sandbar), but the swell is only 2ft from the SE with a period of 10 seconds. The energy is a measly 98, so it’s barely worth wetting your suit. After that, we get a run of clean, offshore mornings, but the swell is just too small – 1ft and 0.7ft – to get excited about. You’ll be waiting a long time for a set.

The first real standout on the calendar is Saturday the 8th. The morning is looking good with a 4ft SSE swell running at a solid 13-second period. That’s a proper groundswell, and the combined energy jumps up to 569 (moderate wave energy). The wind is a light, cross-off breeze from the NNW. This is the sweet spot for Joaquina. The waves will be clean and have some push. It’s a sandbar, so with a long-period swell like this, it might wrap in a little straighter, but the quality should be there for an intermediate level. The water temp is still 65°, feeling normal. The afternoon cleans up even more with a light offshore, but the swell drops a touch to 3ft. Saturday morning is the pick of the first week.

Sunday the 9th gets ruined. The wind swings around to the south at 25 km/h, cross-on and choppy, making a mess of things despite the swell picking up to 5ft and then 7ft. The energy hits 1523 on Sunday afternoon, but with that onshore wind, it’s a groaner. That’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddling one.

We get a bit of a break with a crappy, windy pattern right through until the following weekend. Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th see some cross-onshore winds and lumpy conditions. Saturday the 15th morning has a decent 6ft SE swell with a 13-second period (energy at 981), but it’s cross-on and choppy again. Not great.

Now, the real hidden gem might be on Tuesday the 19th. The day kicks off with glassy conditions and a tiny 1ft SE swell, but the period is a very long 18 seconds. That’s a seriously long groundswell. The energy is only 111, so it’s weak. But then Tuesday afternoon, the wind shifts to a light cross-off from the NNE, and the swell builds to 2ft with a 16-second period, energy jumping to 237. For a sandbar, a super-long period like that can be a bit tricky, but with the light, clean wind, the waves that do come through will be beautifully shaped and have plenty of power. This is a promising, long-range standout, but don’t bet the house on it yet.

After that, we’re back to windy, onshore slop to finish the run. So, to sum it up: your best bet is Saturday the 8th morning for the most reliable, clean surf, and keep an eye on Tuesday the 19th for a potential glassy, long-period session.

Rusty.

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