Hotel Novotel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee, mate. Rusty here, and I've had a bloody good look at what's coming our way for the next couple of weeks. I’ll be straight with you – we’re in for a tough run. The surf will be on the small side for the whole 16-day period and the wind will be a constant problem. If you’re after a paddle, you’ll need to be patient, but don't write it off completely.

The Overall Picture

We’re looking at a long stretch of small, onshore swell. To put it bluntly, the setup is messy. The wind is almost always coming from the east or southeast, which puts it straight across the open breaks. It’s going to be choppy and bumpy for most of it. The only possible saving grace is that the swell period is a short 7-8 seconds, which means it will be weak, crumbly, and wind-affected. There’s not a single standout day where the stars align perfectly.

The Week Ahead (September 6th – 12th)

The first week is all about “poor surf conditions” with scores of 0/10. We start on Sunday the 6th with a weak 0.9m (3ft) swell from the east, but a 12 mph cross-onshore breeze will make it a choppy mess. The wave energy is low, at around 136-153, which tells you there's nothing pushing through. That trend continues into Monday and Tuesday – the swell bumps up to 1.1m (4ft) and then 1.3m (4ft), but it’s still wind-chopped and cross-shore.

Wednesday the 9th sees a bit of a bump in energy, with the combined energy hitting 423 and the swell coming in at 1.8m (6ft) from the east. This is the biggest swell of the whole forecast, but don’t get excited. It’s still a short-period 8-second swell, and with a fresh 19 mph cross-shore wind, it will be lumpy and unsurfable for the average punter. That's expert-only conditions, and even then it won't be pretty. It will look more appealing to the kite crew than the paddle crew. The rest of that week is more of the same: 1.2m (4ft) to 1.7m (6ft) waves with a moderate cross-shore breeze.

The Second Week (September 13th – 21st)

The second week brings no relief. The swell drops back down, and the wind stays stubbornly from the east or southeast. On Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 21st, the wave energy drops into double digits (59-98), which is basically a lake. The wind is still there, cross-onshore, making it a session for a floaty rather than a grovel board.

Best on Offer

Honestly, there’s no true standout. If I had to force a call, I’d say the peak of the swell around Wednesday the 9th is the most powerful it gets, but the wind ruins it. If you absolutely have to get wet and see some moving water, that’s your window, but keep your expectations on the floor.

Hotel Novotel (Big Island) is the only break in the guide, and it’s rated as a beginner spot that is “fairly consistent” but “often” crowded. The swell direction is from the east, but the optimum wind is offshore from the north, and we aren't getting that at any point. The water temp anomaly isn’t mentioned, so it’s about average for the time of year. The bottom line: this forecast is a blank. It’s a typical pattern for this area when the trade winds lock in. I wouldn't hold my breath, but forecasts can always change.

Rusty.

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