Hotel Novotel Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee and listen up. This is a tough one to call. The forecast for the Hotel Novotel stretch is a bit of a heartbreaker. We're looking at a solid 16-day window, but the openers are rough. No surf worth paddling out for until the very end of the first week, and even then, it's a struggle. The wind is almost always working against us, and the energy is all over the place, mostly weak and messy. We've got a few days of nothing but chop and cross-shore junk. Let's break it down, day by day.

From Monday the 24th right through to Friday the 28th morning, it's a write-off. The wind is howling from the east, creating a chop that's unrideable. The swell is small, and the combined energy is weak, sitting between 127 and 161 (moderate). The water is warm at 84°F for the first mention, which is bang on average for this time of year. But that doesn't help when the waves are a mess. The first glimmer comes on Friday the 28th afternoon. The ENE wind swings to a cross-offshore, cleaning things up. The waves are only 3 ft from the east with a period of 8 seconds, but the energy is still low (120). The report says "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions," so don't get your hopes up. It's a 1/10 on the day, but it's the best we've seen.

Saturday the 29th is a step back. The wind picks up again, and the swell jumps to 5 ft, but it's blown out by a strong ESE wind, making it a choppy, onshore mess. The energy jumps to 315 (moderate), but it's all for nothing. Sunday the 30th is a weird one. We get a long-period groundswell from the east, with a period of 15 seconds and a huge energy of 494 (strong). The swell itself is 3 ft to 4 ft, but the period is long. However, the wind is still a cross-shore, creating a cross-chop. The report calls it "marginal surf forecast." That long period swell is a tease – it would be better suited to a point or reef, but here it's just breaking straight and messy with the wind.

Monday the 31st sees a drop in wind speed to a light breeze. The swell is 5 ft from the east with a period of 12 seconds, a solid groundswell with energy at 659 (strong). The wind is light cross-on, so it's not perfect, but the report says "marginal surf forecast." It's the best looking wave all week, but still a 1/10. That's the standout of the entire period, but it's a low bar. The rest of the first week and into the second week is a repeat of the same story: moderate winds, poor surf, and the score never gets above a 1/10. The swell stays small, mostly under 4 ft, and the energy is weak. The second week is even quieter. The wind is a constant cross-onshore, creating chop, and the swell drops to 2 ft to 4 ft. The energy is pathetic, often below 150. The best of the second week is probably the 5 ft on Sunday the 6th, but it's blown out.

Honestly, this is a brutal stretch. The setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer. The swell is there, but the wind is a constant enemy. The only real chance you have is to pick the moments of light wind, like the 31st, and hope for a clean up. But even then, it's a gamble. The forecasts can change, but right now, it's a long, flat, and frustrating run.

Rusty.

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