Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Overall, we’re looking at a pretty tough stretch for Bagasse. For the first week and a half, the swell is small and weak, with short-period windswell that just isn’t doing the job. The wind is mostly cross-off or cross, which helps keep the surface clean, but the waves are just too gutless to get excited about. There’s a real gap in decent surf from the start of the forecast through the middle of the second week. The only time things start to get some size and energy is from around the 12th of August onward, but even then, the quality is compromised by strong winds and a messy, lumpy sea state.

Let’s look at the specifics. Bagasse is a reef break that’s fairly consistent and exposed to the north-northeast swell. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so nothing to complain about there.

The first several days from the 4th to the 11th of August are a write-off. We’re looking at swell heights mostly under 3 ft, with combined swell energy below 100 (66 on the 4th morning, for example). The period is short (around 6 to 7 seconds), so it’s just weak, crumbly stuff. The wind is mostly cross-off from the east, which keeps the surface clean, but it’s not enough to save the day. A surfer’s gonna be frustrated.

The 12th of August is the first sign of life. The afternoon picks up to 5 ft from the ENE with a period of 7 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 234. Still, the wind is a stiff 16 mph cross-off, which is a bit much. The next morning, Thursday the 13th, the swell holds at 5 ft, and the energy is up to 298, but now the wind is blowing 22 mph from the east. That’s a fresh breeze, and while it’s cross-off, it’s going to make conditions very challenging.

The standout period, if you can call it that, is around the 14th and 15th of August. The swell builds to 7 ft – 7 ft from the ENE, with a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is strong, hitting 565 on the 14th morning and 611 on the 15th morning. This is expert-level size, over 8 ft. But here’s the rub: the wind is a fresh 22 mph cross or cross-off, creating a lumpy, cross-chop. The wave comment on the 15th says “fresh cross-shore with lumpy cross-chop,” which is not what you want for a reef break. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The 16th of August sees a slight drop, with the swell at 7 ft from the ENE and a period of 8 seconds, energy at 562. It’s marginal, with a side-shore cross wind again. The 17th drops to 4 ft, and the energy drops to 253, with the wind still a moderate 16 mph. The last few days of the forecast, from the 18th onward, fade back into small, weak surf with poor conditions.

So, if you’re an expert and you’re desperate, the 14th and 15th of August have the size and energy, but the wind is going to be your enemy. There’s no clean, glassy day on offer. The crowds at Bagasse are sometimes an issue, but honestly, with this wind and chop, a lot of people will probably stay away. For the rest of us, it’s a long wait for anything worth paddling out for.

Rusty.

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