Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, Rusty here. Gotta say, the next couple of weeks at Bagasse are shaping up to be a real test of patience. We’re looking at a long, dry spell before anything worth getting wet for shows up.

The first solid block of surf we see is a pretty grim run. From Saturday the 1st of August all the way through to Sunday the 10th, the conditions are just not cooperating. The swell is small and weak, with a lot of those days having a combined energy that’s only in the 70 to 250 range (weak to low-moderate). The period is short, mostly 6 to 8 seconds, which means junky, weak waves. The wind is mostly cross-off or cross, which is okay, but the wave quality is just poor. The whole first week and a half is a write-off for any decent surf.

Now, there’s a glimmer of hope around Monday the 10th of August. The swell starts to kick up a bit, hitting 5 ft to 5 ft from the E and ENE. The energy climbs to 267 (moderate), and the period stretches to 8 seconds. The wind stays cross-off, keeping it clean. It’s still only earning a “marginal” tag, so don’t expect perfection, but it’s the first sign of life.

The real standout, and the only time I’d say get out there, is on Tuesday the 11th and Wednesday the 12th of August. The swell jumps up to 7 ft from the ENE, with a solid 8-second period. The combined energy is strong, hitting 563 and 716 (strong). That’s proper, punchy reef-break power. The wind stays cross-off, keeping the surface clean. The only downside is that at 7 ft, this is getting into expert territory on a reef – not for the faint of heart or the beginners. The break is fairly consistent, but with that size and energy, it’ll be a handful.

After that, the swell drops back a bit, but the wind stays fresh, adding some chop. The 15th and 16th see some solid 6 ft to 7 ft swell, but the wind is more cross or cross-off, making it lumpy. Not the best.

So, the plan is simple: sit tight for the first week. The only real chance to score is Tuesday the 11th and Wednesday the 12th at Bagasse (reef). The swell is 7 ft from the ENE, power is strong (563-716), and it’s clean. It’s a proper groundswell but with a period of 8 seconds, it’s not the long lines you’d get from a deep-water storm. The water temp is about average for the time of year, so no weird surprises there. Crowds are possible here, so get in early.

Stay patient, and don’t bother with the earlier junk. Rusty.

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