Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s cut to it – this outlook is a bust. Bagasse is your only option, and it’s a rough stretch.

The general pattern is poor from start to finish. There’s a gap until Tuesday, September 8th, when the first surf appears, but it’s a letdown. The entire 16 days are plagued by bad surf conditions – no real highlights, no sessions worth chasing.

Bagasse is a reef break exposed to northerly swell. The waves come from east-northeast and east, mostly 3 ft to 6 ft, but the period is short at 7 to 8 seconds – windswell energy, not groundswell. The combined energy readings are mostly in the hundreds (low to moderate), from 127 to 561, but every good reading is sabotaged by poor quality. Winds are cross-off or cross from the east at 12 to 19 mph – not light, not offshore, never glassy. Water temp is 85°F with a small anomaly of 1°F, so about average for the season.

The first surf on the 8th is 5 ft of east-northeast swell at 7 seconds, with a 16 mph cross-off. Energy at 330 – moderate, but “poor surf conditions,” score zero. The 9th and 10th bump up to 6 ft and 6 ft, still short period, and the wind doesn’t ease. It’s called “marginal” at best – too lumpy and choppy to enjoy. This 6 ft is okay for intermediates, but with the wind and short period, it’s more work than fun.

The second week sees the swell drop to 3 to 4 ft, energy in the 130s to 190s – weak. By September 22nd, a 6 ft east swell at 8 seconds pops with energy at 336, but again, wind ruins it. No standouts. If you’re into kiteboarding, the steady cross-off breeze might be a go, but for paddle surfing, this is a flat-spell vibe.

Bottom line: Bagasse is a fairly consistent reef, but the swell direction, period, and wind never align. The optimal swell direction is north, but we get east-northeast – always slightly off. Crowds are “sometimes” an issue, but with this quality, you’ll be alone. Don’t bank on a miracle here; forecasts can shift, but this run looks like a washout.

Rusty.

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