Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be real about what we’ve got coming up for Bagasse. It’s a reef setup that picks up swell from the north, but looking at the numbers, we’re in for a pretty lean run. There’s no proper stand-out swell window here – it’s a long stretch of small, short-period, wind-affected surf that just doesn’t stack up.

For the first week, starting Friday 11 September through to Thursday 17 September, it’s a grind. We’re looking at chest-high swell around 5 ft on Friday but with a short 8-second period and a solid 30 km/h cross-off wind, it’s going to be bumpy and weak – combined energy is only (358). That’s not good. Saturday and Sunday drop off into the 5 ft to 5 ft range with even shorter period (7 seconds) and still moderate breeze. The energy is falling fast (202 on Sunday morning). Monday through Thursday stays small, mostly 3 ft to 5 ft, period rarely hitting 9 seconds, and the wind is always cross or cross-off at 20-25 km/h. There’s a day on Monday the 14th with a slightly longer 9-second period and 4 ft swell, but the combined energy is still only (216) – it’s just ordinary. Nothing here is worth paddling out for with enthusiasm.

We hit a gap of truly tiny surf from Wednesday 16 September afternoon through to Saturday 19 September morning, with swell dropping to 1.0 ft and combined energy bottoming out at (12). That’s flat. Saturday 19 September morning shows a brief blip – 3 ft at 7 seconds with a gentle 15 km/h cross-off breeze and clean conditions. The energy is only (97), but if you’re desperate, that’s the closest to surfable you’ll see. It’s still very average.

Then from Sunday 20 September onward, it gets weird. We get a pulse of very long-period groundswell – 14 seconds on Sunday morning – but the height is only 0.7 ft. That’s a ghost swell. By Sunday afternoon it’s 2 ft at 13 seconds with (138) energy, but you’d need a reef that works on tiny, super-long lines. Bagasse is a reef, so maybe it’ll show a few glassy little peelers if you’re patient, but don’t expect anything you’d tell your mates about. The rest of the second week (21-26 September) is back to the same story: 2 ft to 4 ft, short period (6-8 seconds), combined energy mostly under (200), and persistent moderate cross-off winds.

Honestly, if I had to pick one session that’s the least bad, it’s that Saturday 19 September morning. The wind is light, it’s clean, and you might find a waist-high wave if you sit in the right spot. But there’s no standout here – no day with good swell, good wind, and decent energy all lining up. The water temp is around 85°, which is about normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t need a steamer while you’re sitting there waiting.

So, what’s the call? If you’re a local who knows this reef, you might scratch out a few waves on that Saturday morning. Otherwise, it’s a long 16 days of small, weak, wind-affected surf. Not much to get excited about.

Rusty.

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