Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this outlook is a bit of a tough one. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for quality surf at Bagasse (reef). We’ve got a long stretch of onshore and cross-shore winds, and the swell is mostly short-period windswell. Let’s walk through it.

The pattern kicks off on Friday, July 10th with a 6 ft ENE swell, but a stiff 22 mph cross wind from the same direction is going to tear it up. The water’s a warm 83°F, about average for this time of year, but the conditions are just poor. From there, we hit a real dry spell. From Saturday the 11th right through to Wednesday the 22nd of July, it’s just marginal at best—mostly 4 ft to 5 ft of weak, short-period swell (7 to 8 seconds) from the east or east-northeast, with moderate to fresh cross-offshore winds. The combined energy sits between 199 and 372 (moderate wave energy), but the quality is never there. It’s clean-looking but lacking push and shape.

The only flicker of a pulse comes on Saturday, July 18th, when the swell bumps up to 6 ft from the east, period still at 7-8 seconds, and the combined energy climbs to 311-354 (moderate). But the wind stays cross-shore at 19-22 mph, creating a lumpy, choppy mess. For a reef break like Bagasse that needs decent conditions, this ain’t it.

The best on offer? Honestly, the standout window is that Saturday the 18th only if you’re desperate—those 6 ft waves have some grunt, but the wind is just too strong for any real quality. For expert surfers who can handle choppy, lumpy conditions, you might find a few workable ones. Beginners, stay home—6 ft is already getting too big for you, and the short-period windswell will be crumbly and hard to paddle into.

If you’re into kitesurfing, that Saturday with the fresh cross-wind and 6 ft lumps might actually look fun.

After the 23rd, another small bump to 5-6 ft on Thursday and Friday the 23rd and 24th, but again, the wind is cross or cross-offshore, not the clean offshore we need. That 8-second period keeps it a bit better than the 7-second stuff, but it’s still not special.

Look, this is a long, flat, and windy spell for Bagasse. No standout days. No glassy dawns. Just a whole lot of “meh.” But that’s the way it goes sometimes—a reef break exposed to the east-northeast needs a proper swell and clean wind to shine. We ain’t getting that.

Best bet? The Saturday of July 18th if you’re a hardcore local who doesn’t mind the chop. Otherwise, wait for the next proper southerly or stronger east swell.

Stay patient.

Rusty.

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