Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. Looking at the charts for the next couple of weeks, it’s a bit of a slow burn. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak, and wind-affected surf ahead, so don’t go getting your hopes up for any quick scores just yet. It’s going to be a waiting game.

We’re starting off with nothing but close-outs and mush for the first several days. From Sunday the 2nd right through to at least the morning of Wednesday the 12th, it’s a write-off. The swell is small, mostly under 5ft, and the energy is weak, with readings mostly in the double digits and low triple digits. The wind is a constant cross-off or cross breeze, which messes with the already poor conditions. You’ll see a few small pulses, like Thursday the 7th and Saturday the 9th, but the swell direction and period just aren't there to make anything of it. It's flat, it's weak, it's frustrating.

Water temp at Bagasse (Réunion) is about 83°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year. No big surprises there.

Now, let’s talk about the one bright spot on the horizon. It’s a long ways out, but Thursday the 13th of August is looking like the day to circle on the calendar. The energy jumps up considerably, with readings of 552 and then 796 by the afternoon, which is the strongest we see in the whole window. We’re looking at head-high to slightly overhead surf, with the swell building from 7ft to 8ft out of the E. The period climbs to 8 seconds, which is a little more push behind it. It’s still going to be a cross-off breeze, but it’s cleaner than what we’ve been dealing with. This is the standout, the only real chance we get for a proper session. It’s promising, but it’s far out, so we’ll have to keep an eye on it.

After that, the swell backs down a bit. Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th still have some size, around 5ft to 7ft, but the energy drops back off and the wind is fresher. It’s not terrible, but it’s a step down from the peak on Thursday. Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th, we’re just seeing the tail end of it, with more of that consistent but mediocre cross-off wind and surf around the 5ft mark. Nothing to get too excited about.

So there you have it. A whole lot of nothing, a brief window of something, and then back to average. The waiting game is on. Keep your boards waxed and your eye on the forecast for the 13th. That’s the one.

Rusty, out.

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