Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, ol' Rusty here with the outlook for Bagasse. It's a reef break setup, fairly consistent, and it's looking for that swell from the north. That's the key.

Honestly, for the next couple of weeks, we're looking at a pretty grim run. The combined swell energy is going to be weak to moderate at best, topping out at a reading of (504) on the 19th of July, but even that's not gonna save us. The water temp is sitting right around 83°, which is pretty average for this time of year, so at least you won't be freezing your bits off while you're bobbing around waiting for a wave.

The whole forecast period is basically one long gap. The first record on the 11th of July is a total write-off with poor surf and a cross-shore wind. This pattern just keeps on rolling. We get a few windows where the wind gets a little cross-off, and the surf hangs around the 4 ft to 5 ft mark, but the swell period is short, usually 7 to 8 seconds, and the quality just isn't there. The forecast flags it as "poor surf conditions" or "marginal" for the vast majority of the 16 days.

The only window that *might* get a little closer to being rideable is around the 19th of July. The swell bumps up to 6 ft to 6 ft from the east, but the wind is still a fresh cross-off or, worse, a direct cross-shore. The combined energy hits (504) on the afternoon of the 19th, but with that wind and short period, it's going to be a lumpy, bumpy mess. It's marginal at best.

For a reef break with this setup, the short period, cross-shore chop is just going to make it a frustrating paddle. It's not looking good for the paddle crew. Honestly, if the wind stays up like that, this setup might be more interesting for the kite surfers than anyone with a paddle. There's simply no standout day, no window to get excited about. It's a blank run that's pretty normal for this area when the wind and swell direction just don't line up.

Stay patient, or find something else to do.

Rusty.

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