Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer.

To be straight with you, the next week and a half is a bit of a grind. We’ve got a pulse of swell coming through, but it’s going to be a battle with the wind for most of it. The real standout window looks like it’s the last weekend of July and into the start of August, but even that comes with a few caveats.

For the best chance of a decent wave, we’re looking at Bagasse – a reef break that’s fairly consistent. From Friday, 25 July through the weekend, the swell ticks up a notch. By Saturday morning, 26 July, we’re looking at a clean 5 ft to 6 ft swell from the ENE, with a period of 7 to 8 seconds. The combined energy gets up there, hitting 375 to 478 (moderate wave energy), which is a solid step up from the weak stuff earlier in the week. The wind stays cross-offshore from the E or ENE, keeping the face clean. It’s not glassy, but it’s rideable.

Now, the downside: this is a reef break, and with that period sitting around 8 seconds, it’s not a long-period groundswell, so the shape should be pretty manageable for intermediates. But crowds are listed as “sometimes” here, so expect a few others with the same idea. Water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing weird going on.

Before that, the surf from 17 July to 24 July is small and weak. Swell heights hover around 3 ft to 5 ft with combined energy mostly under 280 (weak to moderate). The wind is gusty, often 15 to 19 mph, and while it’s cross-offshore, it’s fresh enough to make it a bit of a fight. The scores are a zero for those days, and honestly, it’s just not worth paddling out unless you’re desperate. That’s an 8-day gap of poor conditions.

From 29 July into the first day of August, the swell stays in the 4 ft to 6 ft range, but the wind picks up again, especially on the 30th and 31st, where it swings more cross-shore and gets lumpy. The best bet in that second week is the morning of 31 July, where we get a clean 6 ft ENE swell with 19 mph cross-off wind. It’s not perfect, but it’s the best of a tricky run.

The absolute standout? I’d put my money on Saturday morning, 26 July. Clean 5 ft from the ENE, combined energy of 410 (moderate), and a cross-off breeze. It’s been a long wait, but that session has some potential. For the experts, the 6 ft to 7 ft swell on 18 and 19 July will be too big for beginners, but the wind is too strong to make it a classic. Stick to the 26th.

Rusty.

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