Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I gotta be straight with you on this one. The forecast for the next 16 days at Bagasse is a bit of a tough pill to swallow. We’re looking at a long stretch coming up where the quality just isn’t there for a proper paddle session. The wind is a constant problem, and the swell never really locks in. It’s a bit of a bummer, but sometimes that’s the way it goes.

The run starts on the morning of Saturday, July 11th. We’ve got a 7 ft east-northeast swell, but the period is a short 8 seconds, so it’s pretty weak and jumbled. The energy is moderate at best (517). The real killer is that 19 mph east wind, which is cross-offshore. It’s clean, but it’s just too strong to make the waves any fun. It’s a marginal call at best, and the tide might be playing tricks, too. The afternoon only gets worse with a cross-shore wind and chop.

Sunday, July 12th, the swell drops to 5 ft, still from the east-northeast, and still with that short 8-second period. The wind is a 16 mph cross-offshore in the morning, but the wave comment is still “marginal.” The energy is moderate (332). Honestly, it’s not worth suiting up for.

From Monday, July 13th, right through to the end of the month, it’s a real desert. The swell is consistently between 4 ft and 6 ft, coming from the east, with a period that’s stuck at 7 or 8 seconds. Every single record is flagged as “poor surf conditions.” The combined energy never gets above 379, which is weak-to-moderate at best. The wind is a cross-offshore breeze, mostly from the east, blowing between 9 and 19 mph. It’s clean, but it’s a cleaning wind on a messy, weak swell. Not a single standout session in the bunch.

The only little flicker of hope comes on Saturday, July 25th, and Sunday, July 26th. On the 25th, the morning has a 5 ft east swell but the wave comment is still just “marginal.” The wind is a lighter 12 mph, which is better, but it’s still cross-offshore. The energy is moderate (303). On the 26th, the swell fades to 4 ft, and the wind is a gentle 9 mph cross-offshore. It’s the smallest, weakest swell of the whole period. Not a standout.

So, what’s the call? There are no good surf options in this 16-day window. The water temperature is about average for the time of year, so at least you won’t freeze. But with the wind and the weak, short-period swell, this setup is honestly more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. It’s a blank run, and it’s a bit of a normal thing for this area when the wind doesn’t cooperate. Hang in there, and keep an eye on the forecasts. They can change.

Rusty.

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