Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right then, let's have a look at what's on the cards for Bagasse over the next couple of weeks. I'm not gonna lie to ya, the start of this run is pretty hard work. We've got a solid week of easterly trades blowing cross-off or straight cross, and the swell's just not lining up right. The wave energy's weak, mostly down around the 170 to 269 mark, and that ENE direction just isn't what this reef wants to see – it's crying out for something from the north. You're looking at poor surf conditions day after day, a real frustrating stretch from the 19th through to the 23rd.

Things finally start to look a bit more interesting around the 24th of August. The energy jumps up noticeably, hitting 504 on Monday morning and 552 in the arvo, but it's still rugged. The swell's pushing 6ft and the wind is a stiff 35 km/h easterly. The surf is gonna be a messy, blown-out beast.

Now, the standout window arrives on the 25th of August. That Tuesday morning we're seeing a solid 8ft of ENE groundswell hitting the reef, with the combined energy roaring up to 1171. That's serious power. But it's the Tuesday afternoon that's the real talker: the swell jumps to 12ft, the period stretches out to a proper 11 seconds, and the energy reading is a massive 2748. That is a heavy, powerful swell. The wind is a manageable 25 km/h cross-off, so it'll be clean. This is expert territory for sure – too big for anyone but the experienced crew. The reef (Bagasse) will hold that size and direction well.

After that peak, the energy drops back but remains surfable into the end of August. The 30th of August brings a fascinating shift: the period hits 13 seconds with a cross-off breeze, and the combined energy is still a punchy 630. That is a very long-period groundswell, and it'll wrap in cleanly with those light winds, but at a beach break it might wall up and close out a bit. Here on the reef, it should offer some proper, lined-up waves with plenty of time between sets.

Into the first few days of September, the swell backs right off and the trade winds shift more cross-shore, so we're back to small, choppy conditions. Not worth getting too excited about.

Honestly, if you're after the best of the bunch, it's Tuesday the 25th of August. The afternoon session, with that 12ft, 11-second ENE swell and clean cross-off wind, is the one to circle on the calendar. The 30th of August morning is a solid backup, with that long-period groundswell. Water temp is sitting around 84°, bang on average for this time of year.

Rusty.

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