Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Bagasse.

Honestly, it’s a pretty quiet run for the next 16 days. The first few days are a write-off for decent waves, and the whole period is filled with poor surf conditions. There is a gap of no real surf to speak of right from the start, running through until the end of the 16-day window. The only real noteworthy bit comes right at the end, but it’s a long way off.

The water is sitting at 83°F right now, which is about 0.5°F warmer than usual for this time of year – nothing to get excited about, just your standard tropical bath.

The earliest we see a pulse is around Friday, July 31st, with some chest-high swell pushing in at 6ft from the ENE, with a short period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (477). The problem is the wind is a cross-shore from the ENE at 16 mph, and the wave comment calls it poor surf. The afternoon cleans up a little wind-wise, offering a cross-off breeze, but the swell is still a messy, short-period affair. Not worth paddling out for.

The rest of the first week and into the second week is a dead zone. Swell drops right off, with heights between 0.7ft and 5ft, periods under 8 seconds, and energy readings dropping to as low as 18 (weak). The wind is mostly cross-off or cross-shore, but the wave quality is consistently rated as poor. The water temperature data doesn’t reappear, but the surf just isn’t there.

The best of a bad bunch is the very tail end of the forecast. On Tuesday, August 11th, the swell builds back to 6ft from the ENE, period creeping up to 8 seconds, with moderate wave energy (391). The wind is a cross-shore from the ENE at 16 mph, but the wave comment still says poor surf conditions. This pattern holds through to the 15th of August, with swell heights around 5ft to 6ft, but the wind stays onshore or cross-shore, and the quality never improves. The combined energy gets up to 357 on the 15th, but it’s all messy.

So, for the whole 16-day window, there is nothing to recommend. The swell direction is from the ENE, which is not the optimum N direction for this reef break. The wind is never clean offshore, and the surf quality is rated as poor or marginal across the board. For a spot that’s fairly consistent, this is a real bummer. It’s a blank run. Sometimes it just goes flat, and this is one of those times.

Rusty.

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