Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Look, I’m gonna be straight with you – the next 16 days at Bagasse are a real mixed bag. We’ve got some swell on the table, but the wind is gonna be a constant battle. The overall picture is one of persistent, often strong, cross-off and cross-shore breezes that are going to mess with the surface. The water temp is sitting around 83°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t need a thick suit.

The first real chance for a wave kicks off on Tuesday, July 21st. The morning session is the only window that looks even remotely clean. We’ve got a tiny 3ft swell from the ENE, a short 7-second period, and a light ESE cross-off breeze. The combined energy is weak (88), so it’s basically a knee-high dribbler. The waves are surfable, but they’re very ordinary. The afternoon sees a cross-shore wind come up, and that’s your window gone.

From Wednesday the 22nd all the way through to the end of the month, the wind is the story. It’s going to be a constant 12 to 19 mph from the E or ENE. The swell builds, hitting 5ft by Friday the 24th and even 5ft by the 29th, with the combined energy climbing into the moderate range (up to 427). But the wind is relentless. It’s a cross-off, but it’s strong enough to keep the surface messy. The ratings are consistently poor or marginal. That 5ft on Wednesday the 29th is too big for beginners, getting into the intermediate zone, but with that 19 mph wind, it’s going to be a battle. Honestly, for a few days there, with the strong wind and that beach-and-reef setup, it looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Into the first week of August, the wind finally eases a bit. The swell drops back to 4ft, and the winds are still cross-off but lighter, around 9 to 12 mph. The combined energy is weak. It’s still not great. Sunday, August 2nd, has a slight chance of a surfable wave with a "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions" note in the afternoon. There’s no standout period of quality surf here. The consistent wind and the ENE swell direction, which isn’t the optimum for the spot, are just keeping things too average.

The absolute best of a bad bunch is the Tuesday morning, July 21st. It’s the only time you’ll find a light, clean breeze. The swell is tiny, 3ft from the ENE, but it’s the only window where the conditions aren’t being torn apart by the wind. It’s a small, clean wave for the patient surfer.

The rest of the 16 days? It’s a long stretch of cross-off winds and average surf. There’s a long gap with no real quality, and the forecasts look pretty locked in. It’s a tough run for the area.

Rusty, signing off.

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