Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me level with you – Bagasse is looking pretty bleak over this 16-day stretch. I’m not one to sugarcoat it. The swell’s coming from the east and east-northeast, but the break really wants north for that optimum shape, and the wind’s never working in our favour. That means messy, cross‑shore conditions day after day. The water’s sitting at a warm 83°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. Crowds are possible here, but honestly, I wouldn’t worry about that – hardly anyone’s going to be frothing over this.

We start on Sunday the 19th of July with east‑northeast wind blowing 15–18 mph, cross or cross‑off, and the swell is 5–6 ft at a short 8-second period. The combined energy is moderate – around 389 to 344 – but the surf quality is poor. That theme holds through Monday the 20th: same story, cross‑shore chop, 5–5 ft, period dropping to 7 seconds, energy down to 206–242. Not a single decent wave in sight.

Tuesday the 21st morning offers the only real flicker of hope. Swell drops to 3 ft, still east‑northeast, 7-second period, and the wind eases to a light 6 mph cross‑off. The energy is weak (102) and the report calls it “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions”. That’s about as good as it gets, and it’s not saying much. By afternoon the wind picks back up to 12 mph and it’s back to poor.

From Wednesday the 22nd right through to Monday the 3rd of August, it’s the same old tune: east or east‑northeast swell, mostly 3–5 ft, period 6–8 seconds, moderate to fresh cross‑off winds. The energy fluctuates between 94 and 431 – that’s weak to moderate – but the wave quality never improves. A couple of morning slots on the 25th and 26th are labelled “marginal”, but to me that’s still not worth getting wet for.

The second week doesn’t bring any relief. Winds stay in the 15–22 mph range, often cross or cross‑off, and the swell rarely tops 6 ft. The longer‑period groundswells we’d love to see just aren’t there – everything’s short and weak. For a reef break like Bagasse, that means the waves won't wrap in properly and the few that do will be junky.

There’s no standout session in this window. If you’re absolutely desperate and the wind drops to glass on a morning, maybe – maybe – you could get a few on the 21st July. But honestly? I’d save the gas and wait for a proper north swell with some clean offshores. For now, it’s a flat‑line.

Rusty

Read more