Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, let’s talk about Bagasse. This is a reef break, exposed to the north, and it’s a fairly consistent spot which is good news. For the next couple of weeks, the picture is a bit of a mixed bag.

We’re starting off real slow. The first few days into September have waves, but they’re small and the conditions are very ordinary. We’re talking waist-high stuff, maybe 3ft, with a short, weak period. The wind is cross-offshore from the east, which keeps the surface clean, but there’s just not enough push behind it. The combined swell energy is weak, sitting around the 70s (77), and it’s not really doing much. It’s surfable, but it won’t get your heart racing.

Moving through the first week, the swell ticks up a little through Thursday and into the weekend, but the quality doesn’t improve. The wind stays mostly cross-off, so the faces are clean, but the energy jumps to moderate (100-141) as we hit Saturday. It’s still not great, with the forecast calling it “poor surf conditions” on the afternoon of the 5th and into the 6th. By Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th, the swell is pushing a bit more, around 4ft to 4ft, with moderate energy (up to 273), but the short period around 7 seconds is letting it down. The conditions are described as marginal, with a clean surface but nothing special coming together.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. From Wednesday the 9th into the end of that week, the swell really kicks in. We’re seeing waves around 6ft coming from the east, with a period of 8 seconds. The combined swell energy jumps hard into strong territory (564-579), and while the wind is a fresh 30 km/h breeze from the east, it’s still cross-offshore, keeping things clean. But here’s the thing – that 6ft is pushing into the zone where it’s not for beginners. It’s a bigger, more powerful swell, but the short period means it won’t have that long, drawn-out groundswell feel. The forecast still calls it “marginal” for quality, so it’s a tricky one. The energy is there, but the wave shape might be a bit chunky and challenging.

Through the second week, from the 10th onwards, the swell stays solid but the quality is still poor. The wind stays strong and cross-off, the swell holds around 6ft to 5ft, with moderate to strong energy. By the weekend of the 12th and 13th, the wind swings more cross-shore, creating some lumpy, cross-chop conditions. The surf is there, but it’s not nice. It’s the kind of setup that might be more interesting for kite surfing than paddling, to be honest, with that strong crosswind and solid waves.

The best bet in the whole 16-day run looks like it will be the 9th and 10th of September. It’s still within that first week, so it’s a fairly reliable call. The swell is the biggest we’ll see, with waves around 6ft from the east, and the east-northeast wind keeps it offshore and reasonably clean. The energy is strong, so there’s plenty of push, but remember, at this size Bagasse is for the crew who know what they’re doing. It’s not the world’s cleanest wedge of a wave, but it’s the most powerful it’s going to get. Just keep an eye on that cross-chop later in the week.

By the 14th and into the 15th, the swell drops right off, back to less than 1ft with almost no energy (28). There’s a tiny pulse of very long period groundswell from the north on the 16th, but it’s still tiny and the energy is weak. For the rest of the outlook, it’s a waiting game.

So, my call for Bagasse this period: if you’re keen for a paddle, the 9th and 10th are your days. The swell is up, there’s power in the water, and the wind is in your favour. Just be ready for a bit of a grindy, short-period wave that won’t be giving you much room for error. For the rest of it, you might be better off finding something else to do.

Rusty.

Read more