Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the outlook for Bagasse over the next couple of weeks is pretty grim. We’ve got a solid reef break here, exposed to the north, but the timing and conditions are just off. We’re looking at a long stretch of poor surf with a few moments that are barely surfable. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real chance to get wet comes on Tuesday morning, the 21st of July. We’ve got a tiny 3ft swell from the east-northeast, with a short period of 7 seconds. The wind is light and cross-offshore, making it clean, but the waves are weak – the combined energy is only 105 (weak). It’s surfable, but only just. Don’t expect much.

The next few days are a write-off. Wednesday through Friday, the 22nd to the 24th of July, are all poor. The swell stays small, around 3ft to 4ft, and the wind is a moderate breeze, mostly cross-off but still messy. The energy stays low, topping out at 190 (weak) on Friday afternoon. Not worth paddling out.

Saturday the 25th of July shows a slight bump – the swell picks up to 5ft from the east-northeast, with a 7-second period. The wind is a moderate to fresh breeze, cross-off, so it’s clean. Energy climbs to 213 (moderate). But the label says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” It’s a maybe, but I wouldn’t get your hopes up.

Sunday the 26th of July is similar. 5ft swell from the east-northeast, period up to 8 seconds, with a gentle breeze and clean conditions. The energy is 245 (moderate), but again, it’s marginal. There’s a risk of thunderstorms in the morning, too.

Then we hit a dry spell. From Monday the 27th of July right through to the end of the outlook, the swell pushes up to 5ft to 6ft, with periods of 8 seconds, and the energy gets into the 300s and even 408 (moderate) on the 30th. But the wind is relentless – a fresh to moderate breeze from the east, blowing cross-off, keeping the surface clean but the waves are just poor. The conditions are too strong for the setup. At this size and with that wind, Bagasse looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. The exposed reef and the cross-off wind are just not lining up for a quality wave.

The best of a bad bunch is the morning of the 31st of July and the 1st of August. Swell is 5ft to 5ft, 8-second period, clean with a moderate breeze, and the energy is moderate (330 and 225). They’re still labelled “marginal,” but if you’re desperate, there might be a few rideable ones. Still, don’t expect anything special.

There’s a gap of about six days where the surf is just not worth it. After the 2nd of August, the swell drops back to 4ft and below, the energy slumps, and it’s back to poor conditions. The entire 16-day window is a struggle.

Rusty.

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