Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s break it down.

The next 16 days start with a rough patch of weak, short-period windswell and messy wind. The only real standout is a single window on Monday, August 17th, when things almost come together. Before that, it’s a waiting game.

Starting off, from Saturday the 8th right through the middle of the week, we’ve got small, weak swell. The waves are around 3 ft to 5 ft, but it’s all short-period ENE windswell with a period of just 6 to 7 seconds. The energy is feeble, between 87 and 226 (weak to moderate). On top of that, the wind is mostly cross or cross-off, but it’s fresh enough to keep things lumpy. The water is warm at 84°, which is about average for this time of year – nothing unusual there. For Bagasse, it’s a frustrating start.

Then, on Thursday the 13th, the swell starts to build. The morning jumps to 7 ft from the ENE, but the wind goes straight cross at 22 mph, making it a messy, lumpy mess. The afternoon is a touch better but still only marginal. Not one to get excited about.

Friday the 14th sees a big jump in size – 12 ft in the morning, 18 ft in the afternoon with a 12-second period. That’s serious energy (8108). But the wind is nasty: strong cross-shore at 25 mph, creating a messy cross-chop. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s ugly. The wind continues to blow hard through Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th.

Now, here’s the bright spot. On Monday the 17th, the afternoon finally delivers. The swell drops to a solid 7 ft from the east, with a 10-second period. The energy is still strong (958). But the real kicker is the wind – light offshore from the SSE at 6 mph. That’s the call. For Bagasse, that’s clean, glassy conditions on a decent-sized, long-period groundswell. This is the best on offer, and it’s the only time the “very good surf conditions” flag flies. The crowd profile at Bagasse says “sometimes,” so you might have a few others with the same idea.

After that, the surf drops off quickly. Tuesday the 18th is marginal, and then we’re back to small, weak, short-period stuff from the 19th all the way to the 23rd, with waves under 5 ft and energy dropping below 300. Not worth paddling out for.

So, the bottom line: The first week is a write-off. The only real standout is Monday afternoon, August 17th, at Bagasse. Get on it if you can, because the rest of the window is flat and frustrating.

Rusty.

Read more