Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright surfers, Rusty here with a look at what’s coming down the line for Bagasse. Let’s get straight into it.

First up, the water temperature here is sitting at 83°F, which is right about average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

Now, I gotta be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle session at Bagasse. We’ve got a lumpy, short-period swell (8 seconds) coming in from the ENE, but the winds are just not playing ball. For the first week, from Monday 6th July right through to Sunday 12th July, we’re looking at poor surf conditions. The swell hangs around 5ft to 7ft, with moderate to fresh cross-offshore and cross-shore winds. The wave energy is moderate, but the quality just isn’t there for a good ride. The morning sessions look clean in terms of the surface, but the swell is too short-period and messy to really line up. Afternoons are a write-off with that lumpy cross-chop.

Wednesday 8th and Thursday 9th July mornings have a bit of a "marginal" tag, with the swell pushing up to 7ft to 7ft from the east. But with 22 mph winds, even if it’s cross-offshore, it’s going to be a battle just to get out. This swell is over 5ft, so it’s getting a bit too big for beginners, and with that short period, it’s not going to be the kind of wave that makes you feel like a hero. It’s more of a grinder.

We then roll into a second week, from Monday 13th July to Tuesday 21st July. The swell drops back to 4ft to 6ft, but the winds stay stubbornly in the E to ENE at 12 to 19 mph. The wave energy drops off too. There are a few more "marginal" tags on the morning sessions from Thursday 16th through Saturday 18th July, but honestly, it’s still just short-period, weak energy stuff. The pattern doesn’t really change.

Honestly, looking across the whole 16-day window, there is no standout day. The best you could hope for is a clean-looking morning with that 5ft to 7ft swell on Wednesday 8th or Thursday 9th July, but the wind and short period will still make it a frustrating session. The combined energy never really gets into the "strong" category, and the swell direction from the ENE is not the optimum N direction for this reef. It’s a bit of a washout.

There are long gaps here with no real recommendations, the whole period is effectively one long gap of poor to marginal conditions. Don't hold your breath.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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