Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey hey, Rusty here. Let’s chew the fat on what’s coming.

The first few days are a total bust. Don’t even bother looking at the ocean through the weekend and into Monday. The swell is small and the wind is howling at 18 mph, blowing across the swell and messing everything up. Wave energy is weak, barely hitting triple digits. Stay on dry land.

Things finally get interesting on Tuesday the 18th. We get a proper offshore breeze out of the south at 12 mph, cleaning up a 4ft swell from the east-northeast. The energy is moderate at 244, but the conditions are what count. That’s your first real session at Bagasse. It’s a reef break that breaks fairly often, and with that offshore wind, the waves will have some real shape to them. Water temp is 84°, which is dead average for the season.

Now, the one you really need to keep an eye on, the real standout, is a week out on Monday the 24th of August. A serious groundswell hits. The swell size jumps to 10ft in the afternoon from the east-northeast, with a period of 13 seconds. That’s long-period energy, and the combined swell energy explodes to 3168. That is some serious, deep-ocean power. This kind of long-period swell loves a reef like Bagasse. It’s going to hold the shape and produce some heavy, lined-up waves. Anything over 8ft is for experts only, so don’t say I didn’t warn you. The wind is cross-shore, not ideal, but that swell is so good it’s still the best pick by a long shot. It’s a long-range call, so keep your fingers crossed.

Tuesday the 25th could be a good follow-up. The swell drops to a more manageable 5ft to 6ft, and the wind turns almost glassy from the southeast at just 3 mph in the morning. That would be about as clean as it gets.

After that, the surf fades out hard. The last week of August and into September looks flat and weak, with wave energy dropping back into the double digits. Standard end-of-summer stuff.

Bottom line: nothing until Tuesday the 18th. If you’re brave and experienced, circle Monday the 24th for the big groundswell. That’s the one.

Rusty.

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