Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I'm looking at the outlook for Bagasse.

Right off the bat, the next week or so is a real struggle. We've got a lot of wind and a lot of cross-off or cross-shore chop making a mess of things. The swell energy is all over the shop, from weak (88) right up to very strong (1282), but the wind just won't play ball. For the first eight days, through to the afternoon of the 16th of August, it's pretty much all poor surf conditions – you'd be fighting a losing battle. The only flicker of hope in that stretch is a couple of sessions on Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th where the swell bumps up to over 8ft, but with a strong breeze and cross conditions, that's big, ugly, and dangerous – definitely not for beginners. The wave energy is strong (731 to 1251), but the quality is just not there. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

But then, hold onto your hats. Monday the 17th of August is the one we’ve been waiting for. The morning is glassy – *glassy*, with a slight air from the SSE at only 3 mph. The swell drops a touch to about 7ft from the east, but the period bumps up to 11 seconds, giving it real groundswell power. The combined energy is strong at 1203. The report says excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers, and I agree – that's a standout window. This will be a proper, clean, powerful wave, though at 7ft it's in that expert zone. The afternoon sees the wind swing light offshore from the south at 9 mph, still very clean, with the swell at 7ft. That is the best on offer by a country mile.

After that, the consistency fades again. Tuesday the 18th and Wednesday the 19th have some marginal, clean surf with east swell around 4 to 5ft, but the wind is back to a cross-off and the energy drops off fast (395 down to 209). From the 20th of August right through to the end of the outlook on the 24th, it's a long stretch of poor conditions with onshore or cross-off winds and weak swell energy (74 to 276). It's a bit of a desert after that Monday gem.

So, the play is simple: Bagasse. The entire run is building to Monday the 17th of August. That morning glass-off is the moment to be in the water. The swell is from the east, which is not its absolute optimum from the north, but the quality of the conditions will make up for it. This is a reef break that's fairly consistent, and crowds are possible, so get there early. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so don't worry about a wetsuit.

Rusty.

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