Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Bagasse over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – this is a grim stretch. The only break on offer is Bagasse, a reef setup that’s fairly consistent, but the conditions are just not cooperating. The water temp is sitting at a super warm 83°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so at least you won’t be freezing while you stare at the closeouts.

We’ve got a long gap of poor to ordinary surf right from the start. Sunday the 26th kicks off with a tiny 4ft swell from the ENE, but it’s a short period 8 second windswell, and the wind is a light cross-shore. The combined energy is weak (165), and the waves are just poor. That afternoon things clean up a touch, but it’s still only 4ft and very ordinary. Monday the 27th through to Tuesday the 28th are all “poor surf conditions” with swell hovering around 3ft to 5ft, and that ENE windswell (8 seconds) just doesn’t have the juice. The combined energy finally climbs a bit to 263 on Tuesday afternoon, but the quality is still poor.

Now, we get a bit of a pulse from Wednesday the 29th through to Saturday the 1st of August. The swell bumps up to 8ft to 8ft on Wednesday, still from the ENE at a short 8 seconds. The combined energy shoots up into the moderate-to-strong range (778 to 885), which is a real tease. But – and it’s a big but – the wind is a fresh breeze from the E, blowing cross-offshore. The forecast calls it “marginal” due to questionable tide conditions. This is the only window that might get a few looks, but it’s not clean, and it’s not lining up. The swell is big enough (over 8ft) to be expert-only, and with that short period, it’s going to be a messy, lumpy pile of water. This is a reef, so the long period caveat doesn’t even apply – it’s just a short, weak windswell. Honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

After that, from Sunday the 2nd of August all the way to the end of the forecast on Monday the 10th, the numbers just flatline. We’re looking at 3ft to 5ft of weak, short-period ENE windswell (6-8 seconds), with cross-offshore winds, but the combined energy drops right back to poor levels (as low as 63). It’s all “poor surf conditions” or “marginal” at best. There’s no stand-out day, no golden window.

The only true standout? Honestly, there isn’t one. The best of a bad bunch is Wednesday the 29th and Thursday the 30th of July, when the swell hits 8ft to 8ft. If you’re an expert and you’re desperate, you might find a few lumpy, tide-dodgy waves. But the wind is fresh, and the period is short. It’s not surfing – it’s a workout. I’d give the whole 16 days a miss. The forecast can change, but right now, it’s a tough watch.

Rusty.

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