Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I gotta be straight with you—this outlook is a tough one to sell. We're looking at the Bagasse reef break, and honestly, for the next 16 days, it's a real struggle to find a window that's worth paddling out for.

Right now, starting from Sunday the 12th, we've got a weak, short-period swell pushing in from the ENE at about 5 ft, but the problem is the wind. It's howling out of the East at 15 mph, keeping it cross-off. It's not total junk, but the energy is weak (340), and the waves are just not holding together. The water temp is a balmy 83°, which is pretty much average for the time of year, so at least you don't need a thick suit.

This pattern just drags on. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday—it's all the same story. We're stuck with small, short-period swell (5 ft to 5 ft, 7-8 seconds) and persistent 15-18 mph easterly winds. The energy stays in the weak to low-moderate range (200-300), and the wave comment keeps screaming "poor surf conditions." There's a tiny sliver of hope on Tuesday the 14th afternoon and Wednesday the 15th afternoon where the conditions are listed as "marginal," but that's about as exciting as a flat tyre.

We get a bit of a bump in size around Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th, with the swell pushing closer to 7 ft and the energy climbing into the moderate range (369-547). But it's still a short-period, wind-affected mess. The wind is still a solid 15-22 mph cross-off, and the forecasts are still calling it "poor" or "marginal." For a reef break, that much wind and that short period is a recipe for a choppy, frustrating session. It's not beginner stuff, but it sure as hell isn't quality. Given the consistent wind, this setup honestly looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The rest of the window into the second week is more of the same—small, short-period, wind-swept. The swell drops back to 4 ft to 5 ft by the end, and the energy fades away. There's simply no standout day here. The only break on offer is Bagasse, and it's a no-go.

We're looking at a blank run of at least 16 days with no real recommendation. It's a tough stretch, but that's the way it is sometimes. Forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it, but for now, don't hold your breath.

Rusty.

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