Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on offer for Bagasse.

Gonna be straight with you – the next couple of weeks look like a frustrating stretch for this spot. The swell never really lines up with clean conditions for very long, and when there is a bit of size, the wind messes it up. Don’t expect any firing sessions.

Things kick off on Thursday 30 July afternoon with some chest-high, short-period swell (6 ft from the ENE, period 8 seconds) coming through, but a fresh cross-shore wind will have it lumpy and choppy. It’s a write-off. Same goes for Friday 31 July morning. Later Friday afternoon, the wind eases to a moderate cross-off breeze and the swell drops a fraction to 6 ft, but even with clean faces, the energy is moderate (450) and conditions are still marginal. Saturday 1 August morning offers the first glimpse of something half-decent: 5 ft ENE swell, clean with a gentle cross-off wind, but the period is short at 8 seconds and the energy is only moderate (250). Saturday afternoon is similar, with 4 ft waves.

From Sunday 2 August right through to Tuesday 11 August, it’s pretty grim. The swell stays small to moderate – mostly 3 ft to 5 ft – but the winds are often cross or cross-off, and the combo of short period (6 to 8 seconds) and persistent wind keeps the quality low. The energy bounces around from weak (73) to moderate (374), but the “poor surf conditions” tag sticks for every single one of those days. There’s a real dry spell here with nothing you’d want to paddle out for.

Mid-week, on Wednesday 12 August morning and afternoon, things look a little more promising on paper. Swell bumps up to 6 ft from the east, period 8 seconds, with a moderate cross-off breeze and clean conditions. Energy is strong (375). It’s classed as marginal due to tide or other factors, but it’s the best of a bad bunch. Still, don’t get too excited – it’s not a standout.

The final few days, Thursday 13 August and Friday 14 August, see a similar story: chest-high swell (5 ft to 5 ft), but fresh winds and moderate energy (272 to 363). The surf stays poor.

Overall, there’s no true highlight in this run. The best chance for a surf might be Saturday 1 August morning with small, clean waves, or Wednesday 12 August if the tide lines up. But honestly, I’d be keeping my expectations low. This reef needs a cleaner window and a longer-period groundswell to really shine, and we’re not getting it here.

Rusty.

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