Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s talk about Bagasse. This is a reef break, fairly consistent, and it’s exposed to the north-east swell. The water temperature is sitting at 83°, which is right about average for this time of year.

Right now, the outlook is a bit of a tough one. The first week and a half is basically a write-off for any decent surf. We’ve got a persistent onshore to cross-offshore wind, mostly from the east and east-north-east, blowing at 9 to 22 mph. The swell is coming in from the east, but it’s short period – only 7 to 8 seconds – and the combined energy is moderate, ranging from 110 to 240 (moderate energy). The problem is the wind is just too strong and cross-shore, making for poor, choppy conditions. Every session from Thursday 16 July through to Friday 24 July is rated as poor surf. You’d be paddling out into lumpy, messy waves.

Then, on Saturday 25 July, we finally see a flicker of hope. The morning brings a clean 6ft swell from the east-north-east, with a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 535 (strong energy). The wind is a cross-offshore breeze at 16 mph, keeping things clean. It’s a marginal forecast, but it’s the first real chance of a wave. The afternoon is similar, with a risk of thunderstorms, but still clean. This is the standout period for the whole 16-day window. If you’re a confident intermediate, this is the best on offer.

Heading into Sunday 26 July, the swell drops back to 5ft to 5ft, and the wind stays cross-offshore, but the energy drops to 324 (moderate energy). It’s still marginal. Monday 27 and Tuesday 28 are back to poor or marginal, with smaller 4ft to 5ft swell and light cross-offshore winds.

The last few days of the month, from Wednesday 29 July to Friday 31 July, the swell builds again, hitting 6ft to 7ft from the east-north-east, with strong energy (507 to 581). But the wind turns cross-shore and fresh, 16 to 22 mph, creating lumpy, messy conditions. The waves might have some size, but the quality is poor, so it’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session.

So, to sum it up: the first 10 days are a blank. The one real standout is Saturday 25 July, with clean 6ft surf and strong energy. After that, it’s a mix of marginal and poor conditions. It’s a frustrating run, but that Saturday is worth a look.

Rusty.

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