
Surf Forecasts:
Bagasse surf forecast from 29 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 1 Aug, 8AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 8s period, E swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 30 Jul, 8AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 8s period, ENE swell with 560 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 1 Aug, 8AM (local time) - 5ft (1.5m), 8s period with E swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Bagasse this week:
The surf forecast for Bagasse over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 01) at 8AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.5m and 8s period. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Bagasse in the next 16 days are 2.1m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 30) at 8AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.6m 4s period and expected on Wednesday (Aug 05) at 5AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 8AM (Sat 1st Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 8AM (Sat 1st Aug) | 5ft (1.5m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 8AM (Thu 30th Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Bagasse over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.
Alright, look. I’ve got to be straight with you. For the next two weeks or so, Bagasse is really the only game in town, and if I’m being honest, it’s a pretty frustrating outlook. The forecast is a long stretch of mediocre to poor conditions, with strong cross-offshore winds that just won’t ease up. The swell is coming in short-period (8 seconds) and mostly from the ENE, which is a bit off the optimum N direction for this reef. The water temp is sitting at 84°F, which is about dead average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.
We kick off on Wednesday, July 29th, with a 7ft ENE swell, but that 30 km/h cross-off wind is just too strong. The wave energy is moderate (519), but the score is a 1, meaning it’s marginal with questionable tide. This “marginal” label stays stuck on us through Thursday, July 30th, with a 7ft ENE swell and a 35 km/h cross-off – the energy bumps up to 669, but it’s still not clean enough. Friday, July 31st, the swell drops to 6ft, and by the afternoon, conditions actually go to “poor” with a 0 score as the wind shifts to a cross-shore.
Saturday, August 1st, is the only real glimmer of hope. The swell drops to 5ft from the ENE, but the wind backs off to a gentler cross-off at 15 km/h. The morning is still marginal, but Saturday afternoon is the standout. The wind stays light and cross-off, the swell is 4ft, and the energy is light (240). The model actually says “expect good surf conditions” with a score of 2. That’s the best of the whole run. It’s not huge, but it’s the only window where the conditions might line up for a clean, fun session on the reef.
After that, it’s a long dry spell. Sunday, August 2nd, through to Tuesday, August 11th, is a solid 10 days of nothing but “poor surf conditions” and scores of 0. The swell fades to almost nothing – 1ft on Wednesday, August 5th – and the energy drops to a pathetic 24. The wind stays strong and cross-off, or cross-shore, making it a complete write-off. There’s a brief pulse of 7ft swell on Friday, August 7th, but with 35 km/h winds, it’s just a messy, lumpy mess.
Finally, we get a little flicker of life on Wednesday, August 12th, with a 4ft E swell and a return to “marginal” conditions. The energy picks up to 288. Then Thursday, August 13th, sees a 6ft ENE swell with 513 energy and a score of 1. It’s a long way out, and these long-range forecasts are always a bit of a gamble, but it’s a sign things might be turning. The winds are still fresh, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.
So, the bottom line: Saturday afternoon (August 1st) is your best bet. The rest of the time, you’re looking at a lot of blown-out, weak surf. If you’re a beginner, that 4ft swell on Saturday is fine, but watch for the cross-off wind. Anyone else, just wait for that Saturday window.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Warm (max 29°C on Fri afternoon, min 26°C on Fri night). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryModerate rain (total 10mm), heaviest on Sat afternoon. Warm (max 29°C on Mon afternoon, min 27°C on Sat morning). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 29 | Thursday 30 | Friday 31 | Saturday 1 | Sunday 2 | Monday 3 | Tuesday 4 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | ENE 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
437 | 472 | 547 | 560 | 471 | 471 | 459 | 424 | 414 | 277 | 240 | 181 | 168 | 196 | 203 | 203 | 146 | 118 | 91 | 57 | 43 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 5:31PM0.30m | 3:01AM0.43m | 5:38PM0.32m | 3:43AM0.43m | 5:47PM0.34m | 4:25AM0.41m | 5:59PM0.36m | 5:10AM0.39m | 6:16PM0.38m | 5:58AM0.35m | 6:39PM0.40m | 6:53AM0.31m | 7:09PM0.41m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 10:07AM0.06m | 8:38PM0.27m | 10:37AM0.08m | 9:29PM0.27m | 11:04AM0.10m | 10:21PM0.26m | 11:27AM0.13m | 11:17PM0.25m | 11:45AM0.16m | 00:19AM0.23m | 11:58AM0.18m | 1:29AM0.20m | 12:06PM0.20m | 2:46AM0.16m | |||||||
5:46 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:47 | — | — | 5:48 | — | — | 5:48 | — | — | |
— | 6:35 | — | — | 6:35 | — | — | 6:34 | — | — | 6:34 | — | — | 6:34 | — | — | 6:32 | — | — | 6:32 | — | |
mm | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | 2 | 6 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 27 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 27 |
Feels °C | 27 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 29 | 28 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 28 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 8 | NE 8 | NE 8 | NE 8 | NE 8 | NE 8 | NE 8 | NE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | SSE 8 | — | NE 7 | N 11 | N 11 | N 10 | ENE 7 | N 10 | NE 6 |
82 | 73 | 80 | 109 | 80 | 95 | 82 | 66 | 414 | 277 | 240 | 181 | 6 | — | 28 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 77 | 2 | 8 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | SSE 4 | — | S 6 | SE 4 | SE 4 | — | S 6 | S 5 | S 4 | E 12 | S 6 | SE 6 | SE 4 | SE 4 | S 5 | N 10 | E 12 | E 11 |
— | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | SE 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 6 | — | — | S 6 | S 6 | — | — | E 12 | N 9 |
— | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | 3 | 2 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | — | SE 4 | — | — | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | ENE 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 |
437 | 472 | 547 | 560 | 471 | 471 | 459 | 424 | — | 2 | — | — | 168 | 196 | 203 | 203 | 146 | 118 | 91 | 57 | 43 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 1400 | 615 | 615 | 615 | 754 | 319 | 480 | 411 | 90 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 551 | 380 | 615 | 752 | 319 | 178 | 6 | 235 | 454 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Martinique | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Martinique | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Bagasse Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Bagasse provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Bagasse can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Bagasse surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Bagasse) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Bagasse may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Bagasse is 24 km (15 miles) from Sainte-Marie. If you plan a holiday in Martinique, look for hotels and other accommodation in Sainte-Marie. Sainte-Marie has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










