Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's rolling in for Bagasse over the next 16 days.

Alright, the honest truth is we're staring down a pretty bleak start. For the first few days, the surf is just not happening. We've got a lot of wind and chop messing things up. The good news is there is a light at the end of the tunnel, and it gets interesting towards the end of the first week and into the second.

Starting from Monday the 24th of August, it's a write-off. The swell is small, around 3 ft from the east, but the wind is a cross-shore breeze at 12 mph, and the wave energy is weak (124). We're looking at a moderate cross-shore chop, just poor conditions. That carries on through Tuesday and Wednesday with similar story, though the swell inches up. By Wednesday afternoon, we see 5 ft from the ENE, but it's still cross-shore wind and the energy is moderate (324). The water temp is a typical 84°F, pretty average for this time of year.

Thursday the 27th morning is the first time we see a glimmer of hope. The wind swings to a cross-offshore, cleaning things up, and the swell is 5 ft from the ENE. The energy is climbing (382), but it's still a marginal forecast. Friday the 28th is similar, with a smaller 4 ft swell and a gentle cross-offshore breeze, but it's still just on the edge.

Now, Saturday the 29th morning is where we start to see some potential. The swell jumps to 6 ft from the ENE, with a clean cross-offshore wind at 16 mph and energy hitting 410. It's still a marginal call, but that's the best it's been all week. That afternoon, it drops to 5 ft with lighter wind.

But the real standout? That's Sunday the 30th of August. We get a proper groundswell event. The swell is 4 ft from the east, but the period jumps to a massive 15 seconds. The energy is strong (760). The morning looks clean with a moderate cross-offshore breeze. This is a long-period swell, which means Bagasse, being a reef, will absolutely love it. Expect clean, well-shaped waves. The period is so long (over 15 seconds) that the sets will be very defined, and the gaps between them will make paddling out easier. This is the best session on offer.

Monday the 31st is still a solid option. The swell picks up to 7 ft from the ENE, with a period of 11 seconds. The energy is very strong (1045). It's a little cross-shore, but with a light breeze, so it's manageable. For experienced surfers, that 7 ft swell will be a fun challenge, but it's getting a bit beefy for beginners.

Heading into the first week of September, things settle down. Tuesday the 1st through to Thursday the 3rd sees the swell dropping back to 4 ft and below, from the NE and NNE. The wind turns cross-offshore and light, so the conditions will be clean. It's not the power of the weekend, but it's a nice, cruisy stretch.

After that, from Friday the 4th of September through to Sunday the 7th, we drop into a lull. The swell goes flat, under 3 ft with weak energy. The wind is still moderate, but there's just no wave power to work with.

We do see a pulse come back on Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th of September, with the swell climbing back to 5 ft from the east. The energy is moderate (338-352), and the wind is a clean cross-offshore. It's not a blowout, but it's a promising sign for the end of the forecast window. Longer range, so less certain, but a good sign.

So, the two standouts? Sunday the 30th of August for the pure, clean, long-period groundswell. And Saturday the 29th of August as the runner-up, with the first real push of energy. The rest is a mix of flat spells and marginal conditions.

Rusty, signing off.

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