Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Alright, look. I’ve got to be straight with you. For the next two weeks or so, Bagasse is really the only game in town, and if I’m being honest, it’s a pretty frustrating outlook. The forecast is a long stretch of mediocre to poor conditions, with strong cross-offshore winds that just won’t ease up. The swell is coming in short-period (8 seconds) and mostly from the ENE, which is a bit off the optimum N direction for this reef. The water temp is sitting at 84°F, which is about dead average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

We kick off on Wednesday, July 29th, with a 7ft ENE swell, but that 30 km/h cross-off wind is just too strong. The wave energy is moderate (519), but the score is a 1, meaning it’s marginal with questionable tide. This “marginal” label stays stuck on us through Thursday, July 30th, with a 7ft ENE swell and a 35 km/h cross-off – the energy bumps up to 669, but it’s still not clean enough. Friday, July 31st, the swell drops to 6ft, and by the afternoon, conditions actually go to “poor” with a 0 score as the wind shifts to a cross-shore.

Saturday, August 1st, is the only real glimmer of hope. The swell drops to 5ft from the ENE, but the wind backs off to a gentler cross-off at 15 km/h. The morning is still marginal, but Saturday afternoon is the standout. The wind stays light and cross-off, the swell is 4ft, and the energy is light (240). The model actually says “expect good surf conditions” with a score of 2. That’s the best of the whole run. It’s not huge, but it’s the only window where the conditions might line up for a clean, fun session on the reef.

After that, it’s a long dry spell. Sunday, August 2nd, through to Tuesday, August 11th, is a solid 10 days of nothing but “poor surf conditions” and scores of 0. The swell fades to almost nothing – 1ft on Wednesday, August 5th – and the energy drops to a pathetic 24. The wind stays strong and cross-off, or cross-shore, making it a complete write-off. There’s a brief pulse of 7ft swell on Friday, August 7th, but with 35 km/h winds, it’s just a messy, lumpy mess.

Finally, we get a little flicker of life on Wednesday, August 12th, with a 4ft E swell and a return to “marginal” conditions. The energy picks up to 288. Then Thursday, August 13th, sees a 6ft ENE swell with 513 energy and a score of 1. It’s a long way out, and these long-range forecasts are always a bit of a gamble, but it’s a sign things might be turning. The winds are still fresh, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.

So, the bottom line: Saturday afternoon (August 1st) is your best bet. The rest of the time, you’re looking at a lot of blown-out, weak surf. If you’re a beginner, that 4ft swell on Saturday is fine, but watch for the cross-off wind. Anyone else, just wait for that Saturday window.

Rusty

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