Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what we’ve got on the table for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this stretch is a tough one. The overall pattern is a whole lot of wind and not much love from the ocean. The swell is mostly short-period, around 7 to 8 seconds, which just doesn’t pack the punch you want for a proper wave. It’s choppy, it’s bumpy, and the wind is almost always blowing cross-off or cross-shore, which is fine for holding a line but not giving you that glassy, velvety face we all dream of.

We start with a bit of a gap. The first few days up to the 5th of September are basically a write-off – tiny swells with weak energy (64 to 134 in the water) and the forecast is calling it poor. Not worth paddling out for.

Things start to look a little more interesting around the 7th of September. The swell bumps up a bit to 4 ft from the east, with a 6-second period, and the combined energy climbs to 142. But let’s be real, a 6-second period is just bumpy, wind-driven junk. It’s not going to give you any proper shape. The wind is a steady 25 km/h cross-off, which keeps it clean but doesn’t make it good.

The standout period – and I’m using the term loosely here – is from the 9th to the 14th of September. The swell starts to push into the 5 ft to 6 ft range, with the east-northeast direction. The energy jumps into the 300s and 400s, which is moderate to strong (453 on the 9th morning). This is where you’ll see more water moving. But the problem is the wind. It’s a persistent 25 to 30 km/h cross-off, which is a fresh breeze. It’ll be clean enough, but it’s not going to be that perfect, groomed glass. The period is still short, around 7 to 8 seconds, so expect short, lumpy lines. For an intermediate-level reef break like Bagasse, a 6 ft, short-period swell with a strong cross-off is a bit of a handful. It’s not beginner-friendly, but it’s not expert-only either. It’s in that awkward middle ground.

Looking at the 10th and 11th, the wind actually picks up to 30–35 km/h. That’s a fresh breeze. The swell is still in the 4 ft to 5 ft range. Honestly, with that much wind and a short period, this setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. You’d be fighting a losing battle on a shortboard.

From the 15th onward, the swell drops back down to 4 ft to 4 ft, and the energy fades into the 100s and 200s. The wind is still there, but the waves are just too weak to get excited about. The last few days of the outlook, the 18th, it’s back to 3 ft and 92 energy – a sad finish.

The best on offer? If I had to pick one, it’s the morning of the 9th of September. You’ve got a 6 ft east-northeast swell with a combined energy of 453, which is the most powerful in the whole window. The wind is a consistent 25 km/h cross-off from the east, keeping the surface clean. It’s not a world-class day, but it’s the most water moving and the most power you’ll see. The 14th of September is also a shout – a 5 ft swell from the east with moderate energy (275) and the same cross-off wind. But it’s marginal, and the conditions are questionable. The water temperature is sitting at 84°, which is about average for this time of year.

Crowd-wise, Bagasse can get busy sometimes, so don’t expect a solo session. It’s exposed and picks up the east swell, so the direction is working for it, but the optimum swell direction is from the north, so we’re not getting the best angle.

Overall, it’s a poor run of surf. There are no true standouts. The consistent wind and short period keep the quality low. The few days with a bit more power are still just “marginal.” It’s one of those periods where you’re better off waiting for the next change in the forecast.

Rusty.

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