Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s have a look at what’s on offer for Bagasse. It’s a reef break that likes an exposed northerly swell direction, but we’re not getting that. The water’s sitting at about 84°F right now, which is pretty much normal for this time of year – nothing unusual there.

Straight off the bat, the first few days are a write-off. From Friday the 21st right through to Monday the 24th, the surf is poor. There’s a bit of east-northeast swell coming in, but the energy is weak to moderate (values between 121 and 241), the period is short at 7–8 seconds, and the wave comments are all “poor surf conditions.” Not worth paddling out for.

There’s a long gap of no real surf. Tuesday the 25th finally sees a slight improvement. The swell starts to get a little more energy – up to 232–328 – and the conditions are clean, but it’s still marginal at best. The swell height is only 4–5ft, coming from the ENE, and the period is short. This marginal run continues right through to Friday the 28th, with the swell energy building slowly into the moderate range (256–344). Still, the wave comment is “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” so it’s a gamble.

The best chance in this whole outlook pops up on Saturday the 29th. The morning sees a 7ft ENE swell, with combined energy jumping to 670 – that’s strong wave energy. The wind is a clean cross-off from the east at 16 mph, so the surf will be clean. That’s the standout for sure. But here’s the catch: the period is still only 8 seconds, so it’s a short-period wind swell, not a proper groundswell. And with that size, it’s pushing into intermediate territory – not for beginners. The afternoon of the 29th gets even bigger, 8ft with energy up to 803, but the wind swings onshore and the conditions get lumpy, so stick to the morning.

After that, Sunday the 30th still has some size (6–6ft) but the wind is not ideal, and the energy drops. From Monday the 31st into early September, the swell fades back to 4–5ft, energy drops into the 200–300 range, and the conditions are mostly marginal or poor.

The one bright spot late in the outlook is Tuesday the 1st of September, morning. The swell is 5ft from the east, period 8 seconds, combined energy 248, and the wind is light and cross-off from the southeast at 6 mph – that’s about as clean as it gets. The wave comment actually says “expect good surf conditions.” That’s the only session in the whole 16 days with a positive call. Crowds are sometimes a problem at Bagasse, so if you’re heading out that Tuesday morning, expect a few others with the same idea.

So, overall, it’s a long, slow start with a lot of flat spells. The real standout is the morning of Saturday the 29th of August – that’s the biggest, strongest swell of the window, and the wind is clean. The backup is Tuesday the 1st of September morning, when conditions should be good, just smaller. The rest is mostly marginal or not worth it.

Rusty.

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