Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s on offer for Bagasse over the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with you – this outlook is a tough one. The good news is there’s a bit of size on the way, but the conditions are fighting us every step of the way, so we’ve got to be patient.

For the first week, from the 27th of July right through to the 4th of August, we’re looking at a real mixed bag. The surf is there, but the winds are a problem. We start with a weak, short-period swell from the ENE on Monday afternoon, only about 4 ft and a period of just 8 seconds, with a cross-shore wind that’s going to chop it up – combined energy is a weak 158, so you’re not getting much push. The water temp is a balmy 83°F, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

From Tuesday the 28th through to Thursday the 31st of July, the swell builds. We get up to 7 ft on Thursday morning from the ENE, with combined energy hitting a strong 729, but the wind stays a cross-off shore breeze, which at least keeps the surface clean. The problem is the period is stuck at 8 seconds, so it’s a short-period wind swell that’s going to be pretty crumbly and fat. It’s a reef break, so it needs a bit of a groundswell to really shine, and this ain’t it. The scores are marginal at best, so it’s a pass for me.

Friday the 31st of July and into the weekend (1st and 2nd of August) see the swell drop back to 4 ft to 5 ft, with the wind still holding cross-off, but the energy drops into the moderate range (238 to 151). It’s clean, but it’s just not enough oomph to get excited about.

Then we hit a real flat spell. From the 3rd of August all the way through to the 9th of August, the surf is minimal. On Monday the 3rd, we’re down to 3 ft, and by Tuesday the 4th we’re looking at 2 ft with combined energy of just 53 – that’s barely a ripple. The wind goes variable, but it doesn’t matter because there’s nothing to ride. The 5th of August is the worst of it, with a tiny 1.0 ft swell from the E, period of 10 seconds, but the energy is only 28. That’s a complete flat spell, and it sticks around for a full six days until the 9th.

Now, if you’re looking for the one standout, you’ve got to wait for the second week. On Monday the 10th of August, we get a pulse of 6 ft swell from the ENE, with combined energy in the strong range (457 to 469). The period is still short at 7-8 seconds, so it’s not a classic groundswell, but the wind is cross-off shore, keeping it clean. This is the best of the 16 days, but it’s hardly a world-beater. It’s a short-period swell, so it’s going to be lumpy and a bit fat, and with the fresh breeze, it’s a grunt session. The 11th of August holds similar size at 6 ft, but the wind shifts to a cross-shore, which will add some chop.

The bottom line: Bagasse is a reef that needs a lot of things to line up, and they just don’t in this window. For the first week, the wind is always working against the quality of the swell. The second week has the size, but the short period means it’s not going to be the kind of clean, lined-up reef wave you’d hope for. The only real window to even consider is Monday the 10th of August, with the 6 ft swell and clean cross-off wind. It’s not a classic, but it’s the closest we get.

Rusty.

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