Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s cooking at Bagasse.

Look, it’s a bit of a slow start. We’ve got a reef break that’s exposed to the north, and for the next several days, the swell is on the small side and the wind is mostly cross-off or cross, which would usually be alright, but the waves are just not cooperating. From Monday the 24th all the way through to the end of the week, we’re looking at poor surf conditions with weak, short-period energy. The combined swell energy is under 500 most of that time, and the waves are mushy, around 3 ft to 6 ft but with periods of 7–8 seconds, so no real push. A few mornings show a “marginal” tag, but honestly, nothing worth paddling out for.

But then… things change. Around Sunday the 30th of August, we start seeing a shift. The swell fills in nicely, with combined energy jumping to 1037 and 1385 – that’s moderate to strong energy – and the period stretches to 14–15 seconds. That’s groundswell, long-period stuff, and at Bagasse it’s coming from the east, which works with its optimum north direction. The wind stays cross-off, so it’ll be clean. The catch? At 5 ft to 6 ft with that long period, it might break a little straight due to the reef, but it’s still a big step up from the junk before.

Now, the real standout is Monday the 31st of August, morning session. We’ve got 7 ft of east-northeast swell, period 12 seconds, and light ESE winds at just 6 mph – that’s almost glassy. Combined energy is 1120, putting it in the “excellent for experienced surfers” zone. This is the one. If you’re an intermediate or better, this is your window. The size (over 5 ft) means beginners might want to sit it out, but the clean conditions and proper energy will make for some memorable waves.

After that, the surf tapers off quickly. Tuesday the 1st of September drops back to 3 ft, and by the end of the week we’re back to weak, short-period dribble with poor surf quality. The second week is pretty barren – mostly 3 ft to 4 ft, period 6–7 seconds, and combined energy under 350. Not worth the drive.

One thing: the water temperature anomaly is about average for this time of year, so no need to overthink the rubber.

So, bottom line: you’ve got a long, flat start, then a promising pulse from Sunday the 30th, but the gold is Monday 31st August morning. That’s your only real standout. After that, it’s back to waiting.

Rusty.

Read more