Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s cookin’ for Bagasse over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, this is a tough stretch. We’re looking at a long, dry spell before anything even comes close to being worth paddling out for. The first recommendation isn’t until Wednesday the 9th of September, and even that is just barely hanging in there as a marginal call. The whole week leading up to it is full of poor surf conditions with nothing to get excited about.

The water temp is sitting at a pretty normal 85°, so no surprises there.

The standout, and really the only window that has any potential, is on Wednesday the 9th and Thursday the 10th of September. The swell bumps up a bit, with the morning of the 9th seeing 6ft of ENE swell at 8 seconds, and the combined energy hitting a moderate 604. It’s a short-period, wind-driven swell, so it’ll be a bit lumpy and disorganized, but there’s some push behind it. The wind is cross-offshore out of the east, so it’ll be clean on the face, which is a major positive. The afternoon of the 9th holds similar energy at 517 with 6ft waves, but there’s a risk of thunderstorms, so keep an eye on the sky. Thursday the 10th morning still has some moderate energy (512) and 6ft waves, but by the afternoon it drops back into the poor category.

For the rest of the 16 days, it’s a whole lot of nothing. After the 11th of September, the swell fades and the combined energy drops into weak territory, often below 100, and the wave heights shrink back down to under 3ft. There’s a tiny blip around the 17th of September where the energy creeps back over 200 and the rating turns marginal again, but it’s nothing special and a long way off.

Bagasse is a fairly consistent reef break, and it does get crowded sometimes, so if you’re out there on the 9th or 10th, expect some company. The swell direction is coming from the east and east-northeast, but the optimum direction here is north, so it’s never going to be firing perfectly. Still, on those two days, with clean, cross-off winds and waves in the chest-to-head-high range, it’s the only game in town.

So, if you’re desperate for a paddle, Wednesday the 9th and Thursday the 10th of September are your best bet. After that, put the board away for a while.

Rusty.

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