Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, this is Rusty. Let’s have a look at what’s happening at Bagasse over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the surf is a bit of a slog for the first week or so. We’ve got small, weak swell rolling in, but the wind is always coming from the east or southeast, blowing cross-offshore. That sounds okay on paper, but the conditions are just ordinary – the waves are there, but they’re messy and uninspiring. The water temperature is sitting at 84°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so at least you won’t need a steamer.

Friday the 4th is the only day that gets a “surfable” nod, with a 3ft swell from the ENE at 8 seconds. The combined energy is weak at 133, so it’s a real small-wave day. The wind is light from the ESE at 6 mph, so it’s clean, but don’t expect any power. After that, we hit a dry spell. From Saturday the 5th right through to Monday the 14th, the finder keeps calling it “poor surf conditions” or “marginal.” The swell bumps up a bit around Tuesday the 8th and Wednesday the 9th, hitting 5ft to 6ft, and the energy climbs into the moderate range (329 to 565), but the wind is up to 16–19 mph from the east. That’s a fresh breeze, and it’s just ruining the shape. The period stays short at 7–8 seconds, so it’s all wind-swell junk.

The most promising window in the whole outlook is around Tuesday the 10th of September. The swell builds to 7ft from the east with a combined energy of 590 – that’s moderate but getting punchy. The period is still short at 8 seconds, so it won’t be a classic groundswell, but it’s the biggest swell of the run. The wind is east at 19 mph, cross-off, so it’ll be bumpy. Given the size is over 5ft, this is getting into intermediate territory, but it’s not clean enough to get excited about. Consider this a “maybe” session for the keen.

Then we get another gap. The surf drops back to 3ft by Thursday the 17th, and the energy is tiny at 113. The wind finally lightens to 6 mph from the ESE, so it’s glassy, but the waves are just too small and weak to recommend.

By Saturday the 19th, the swell nudges back to 4ft from the east at 7 seconds, but the wind is up again at 16 mph, and the conditions are poor. It’s a frustrating forecast for Bagasse – the reef wants a cleaner, longer-period swell from the north to really fire, and we’re just not getting it.

The standout here is seriously limited. The best bet is Tuesday the 10th of September, with the biggest swell, but it’s still a rough one. If you’re desperate, go early when the wind might be a touch lighter. Otherwise, keep an eye on the charts – it tends not to stay this poor for long.

Rusty.

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