Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, folks, Rusty here. Let’s look at the only spot on the table for this stretch: Bagasse. It’s a reef break, and it’s fairly consistent, so it’s not a total write-off, but honestly, we’re looking at a pretty grim run for the next two weeks. The water temp is sitting at 84°F, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real glimmer of hope doesn’t show up until the morning of Thursday the 5th of September. Before that, from Tuesday the 1st right through to Wednesday the 4th, it’s all poor surf conditions with tiny, weak swell. You’re looking at waves around 2ft to 4ft, all short-period stuff around 7 to 8 seconds, and the combined energy is weak to moderate at best (41 to 162). The wind is cross or cross-off from the east, which keeps it clean enough, but there’s just no juice. It’s a frustrating start.

Thursday the 5th morning is the first time we see a “surfable” wave, but it’s a 1 out of 10. A tiny 3ft swell from the east-northeast, 8-second period, with combined energy of just 79. The wind is light cross-off from the east-southeast, so it’s clean, but it’s barely a ripple. Nothing to get excited about.

The following week, from the 6th to the 16th, the swell picks up a bit, but it’s still a tough sell. The morning of Tuesday the 8th sees a 5ft east swell with 7-second period and combined energy of 268, which is moderate. The wind stays cross-off and clean, but the short period means the waves are going to be a bit weak and messy. The best looking swell on paper is the morning of Thursday the 10th: 6ft from the east-northeast, 8-second period, and combined energy of 526, which is strong. But again, the wind is a fresh 19 mph from the east, cross-off, so it’s going to be a bit of a battle. At 6ft, it’s getting a bit too big for beginners. The afternoon of the 10th is a touch smaller at 7ft from the east, with similar energy, but the wind backs off to a moderate breeze.

For the whole 16-day window, the waves are coming from the east and east-northeast, which is the optimum direction for this spot. The problem is the quality. The scores are all 0 or 1 out of 10, with “poor surf conditions” or “marginal surf forecast” the whole way through. The period is consistently short, 7 to 9 seconds, so you’re not getting any groundswell power. The best you can hope for is a clean, cross-off wind and a bit of size, but the shape is going to be poor.

If I had to pick one standout, it’s the morning of Thursday the 10th of September. The swell is 6ft from the east-northeast, combined energy is a strong 526, and the wind is cross-off and clean. That’s your best chance for a proper wave, even if it’s a bit of a grunt. But remember, this is a reef break, so with that short period, it’s going to be a bit dumpy and not the smooth, lined-up stuff you’d want. It’s a surfer’s call, but it’s the only window worth looking at.

All in all, it’s a lean two weeks. The first week is a total dud, and the second week offers a little more size but still poor quality. It’s a tough stretch for the area. Keep an eye on the forecasts, but for now, don’t sell your board.

Rusty.

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