Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what Bagasse has got cookin' for us over the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – the start of this outlook is a bit of a slow burner. We're lookin' at a good few days where it’s just not worth paddling out. The waves are small and weak, and the wind, while mostly cross-offshore, is blowin' a fresh 12 to 16 mph, just messing up any chance of a decent wave. We're talkin' waist-high slop with combined swell energy in the 120s to 180s – that’s the sound of a flat spell, my friends.

Now, Friday, July 24th is where things start to get a little bit interesting. The swell bumps up a touch to 5 ft from the east-northeast, with a period of 7 to 8 seconds. The wind settles into a clean cross-offshore pattern, and the combined energy jumps to 272. It’s still a "marginal" call, but you might find a few bumpy ones out there if you're desperate for a paddle. Worth a look in the morning, but it ain't gonna be a world-beater.

Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th are more of the same – slightly smaller on Saturday, but Sunday morning offers a bit of hope. We get a light breeze switching offshore from the southeast, which will clean things up nicely. The swell holds at a knee-to-waist high 4 ft, and the combined energy sits at 186. It feels very "ordinary" according to the numbers, which usually means fat, slow waves. But with that light wind, it could be a fun session for a longboard or a foiler.

Then we hit a bit of a lull again from Monday the 27th through Tuesday the 28th – the wind freshens, the swell drops back under 5 ft with weak energy. Not much to write home about.

Now, here’s the standout window. Wednesday, July 29th through Friday, July 31st. This is the period that gets the blood pumping. The swell really kicks in, hitting 7 ft to 7 ft from the east (and east-northeast). The period stretches to 8 to 9 seconds, which gives the waves a bit more push. The wind is a solid cross-off from the east at 19 mph, keeping the faces clean. The combined energy rockets up into the 700s and 800s – that’s proper, solid, moderate-to-strong wave energy. This is the time for the experienced crew. With 7 ft of east swell at a reef break like Bagasse, you’re looking at some solid, powerful waves. It’s going to be a bit heavy and a peaky, but with the cross-off wind, the lines will be clean. This is not for beginners – anything over 5 ft is a challenge, and 7 ft is firmly in the intermediate-to-expert zone. The only downside is it'll be firing for a few days straight, and this break can get crowded, so expect some company in the water.

After that, the swell slowly backs off through the first week of August. From Saturday, August 1st to Tuesday, August 4th, we see 5 ft to 5 ft E/ENE swell with moderate energy in the 200s to 260s. The wind stays cross-off at 12 to 16 mph, but the quality fades from "marginal" back to "poor." The end of the run, from Wednesday, August 5th to Friday, August 7th, fizzles out again with small, weak swell under 4 ft. It just becomes a waiting game for the next proper pulse.

So, to sum it up: the first half of this outlook is a slow grind. Your best bet is the three-day stretch from July 29th to July 31st, where we get that significant east swell and clean cross-off wind. Get out there if you’ve got the nerve for a solid 7+ ft reef break.

Rusty.

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