Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a proper look at what’s cookin’ for Bagasse over the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a slow starter, so don’t be in a rush to grab your board just yet.

For the first week, the surf is looking pretty average. We’ve got a bit of energy coming through, but the wind is mostly cross or cross-off from the east and east-northeast, and it’s kicking up a bit of chop. The swell is small, mostly around 3 ft to 5 ft, with periods under 8 seconds – that’s short-period wind swell, so the waves will be a bit lumpy and lack that real push. The combined energy is weak to moderate, starting at 130 and only getting up to a moderate 194 by Wednesday afternoon. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing wild there. Honestly, for the first several days, it’s more of a head-scratcher than a head-dipper. You’ll see “poor surf conditions” popping up right through to the weekend.

Now, a little bright spot shows up on Sunday the 16th of August. The swell bumps up a notch, hitting 7 ft from the ENE with a period of 9 seconds. But the wind is cross-onshore, and the combined energy jumps to a strong 1218, which is a lot of water moving. By Sunday afternoon, it’s a full 10 ft with a 13-second period (that’s proper groundswell) and an energy of 2881. That’s serious power. But with the wind onshore, it’s going to be a messy, choppy mess. Only for the experts, and even then, it’ll be a battle.

The standout moment comes on Monday, the 17th of August. The wind goes light offshore from the southeast in the afternoon, and it’s going to be clean. The swell is still a solid 6 ft from the east (ENE direction, which is close to the optimum N direction from the guidance) with a 10-second period, and the energy is a strong 753. That’s real potential for some lined-up, clean waves. This is the one window where the stars align for quality. The bigger 10 ft swell earlier will have settled, and we get a much more manageable, clean setup. If you can only paddle out once, this is your call. Just be aware that Bagasse can get crowded sometimes, so get in the water early.

After that little taste of glory, things fade out again. The week of the 18th through to the 25th sees the swell slowly backing off from 6 ft down to 3 ft, with the wind mostly cross-off or cross. The combined energy drops back into moderate and weak territory (from 440 down to just 91 by the 22nd). For days at a time, it’s those “poor surf conditions” all over again. There’s a small puff of near-offshore wind on Monday the 24th of August with 6 ft swell, but it’s a marginal call. Nothing to get too excited about.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a write-off. The real sweet spot, and the only true standout in the whole 16-day stretch, is the afternoon of Monday, the 17th of August. That’s where you want to be. After that, it’s back to flat spells and small, choppy leftovers. It’s a patient man’s game.

Stay salty,
Rusty

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