Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about your local setup. The forecast is a bit of a mixed bag, with a lot of onshore wind and short-period swell gumming up the works for most of the outlook. The main break on the radar is Bagasse, a reef setup that’s fairly consistent and exposed to the north. We’ve got a long stretch of days where the surf is just not worth paddling out for, but there are a couple of windows that might get you wet.

The water temp is about average for the time of year, so no need to dig out the 5/4 just yet.

We kick off on Sunday, July 19th with a 6ft swell from the ENE, but the wind is a cross-off at 16 mph, and the tide is doing no favours. The combined energy is moderate (421), but the period is a short 8 seconds, making for poor surf conditions. The afternoon doesn’t improve – 5ft with cross-shore wind and lumpy chop. Honestly, not worth a look.

Monday, July 20th through to Thursday, July 23rd sees the swell dropping. Heights hover around 3ft to 5ft, still with that short 7-8 second period. The wind stays cross-off, but the energy is weak to moderate (max 116). The surf is poor or very ordinary. It’s a clean surface but no power behind it.

A bit of a glimmer shows up on Friday, July 24th afternoon. The swell picks up to 4ft, and the combined energy nudges up to 214 – still moderate. It’s rated as marginal. The wind is a clean cross-off at 16 mph. Still not great, but if you’re desperate, you could get a few small, weak ones.

Saturday, July 25th morning might be the best it gets for a while. The swell is 5ft from the ENE, period 8 seconds, and the energy is a moderate 280. The wind is cross-off at 12 mph, keeping the surface clean. The waves are marginal, but it’s the most juice we’ve seen. The afternoon gets cloudy and the wind picks up again, so the morning is your window.

From Sunday, July 26th through to Wednesday, July 29th, the swell stays around 5ft to 6ft, with a consistent 8-second period. The energy bounces between 293 and 441. The wind is mostly cross-off, but there are periods of rain and cross-shore winds. The surf is consistently poor or marginal. No standouts here.

The end of the month and the start of August bring a familiar story. On Thursday, July 30th we have a 6ft swell with a fresh breeze at 19 mph – not ideal. The energy is 451, but the wind is too strong for clean conditions. Friday, August 1st afternoon sees a jump in energy to 541 (moderate), with a 6ft swell from the E, but the period is only 7 seconds. It’s marginal. The wind is cross-off at 16 mph.

The final days, Sunday, August 2nd and Monday, August 3rd, drop off again to 4ft-4ft with weak energy and strong winds. The outlook fizzles out.

The one standout? Honestly, with the persistent short-period, wind-affected swell, there’s no single day that screams “drop everything and go.” The best bet is Saturday, July 25th morning at Bagasse. The swell is 5ft from the ENE, the wind is a clean cross-off, and the energy is moderate. It’s not a classic, but it’s the cleanest and most powerful window in the whole 16 days. The reef should handle the short-period swell better than a beach break, but don’t expect it to be super hollow. The crowds are sometimes a thing here, so you might have some company.

If you’re not an intermediate surfer, be aware that this swell is a bit punchy for a beginner. For the experts, it’s a bit small and short-period to get truly excited.

Rusty.

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