Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. We’ve got a 16-day window for Bagasse, a reef setup that likes the swell from the north. The water’s sitting at 84°, which is right where it should be for this time of year – nothing weird going on there.

The pattern overall is a bit of a mixed bag. The first couple of days have some action, but then it gets real quiet for a long stretch before a flicker of hope shows up later.

We kick off on Tuesday, August 18th. That morning, Bagasse is the play. We’ve got an easterly swell pushing in at about 5ft, with a period of 8 seconds. The wind is offshore from the southeast, a moderate breeze, and that’s keeping the surf clean. The combined energy is moderate at 576, so there's some push behind it. It's a bit punchy and should offer up some fun, rippable walls. By the afternoon, the swell drops a touch to about 4ft, but the wind goes lighter and stays offshore. Clean conditions again, just a bit smaller. This Tuesday is your best bet in the whole outlook – a real standout for quality.

Then things go south. From Wednesday, August 19th, right through to the end of August, it’s a long, flat spell. The wind is all over the place – cross, cross-off, some fresh breezes – and while there’s occasional swell, the wave quality is poor and the scores are just not there. The combined energy rarely gets above moderate. It’s a dead run for the most part. You’d be wasting your time paddling out.

There’s a glimmer of something on the 26th of August, a Wednesday. The afternoon shows a 5ft easterly swell with a 9-second period, and a gentle offshore breeze from the SSE. Combined energy is 309, so moderate. It’s clean and shows a bit more shape. But keep in mind, this is more than a week away, so treat it as a promising maybe rather than a lock.

The rest of the run into early September is more of the same. Wind from the east-northeast, cross and cross-off, with swell around 4ft to 5ft. The energy stays moderate, but the quality just isn't there. Too many breezes blowing across the face.

The very end of the window, on Monday the 31st of August, shows a 5ft easterly swell, but it’s got a longer 11-second period and combined energy of 661. That’s a bit more grunt, but it’s still listed as marginal. Might be worth a look if you're desperate, but it’s not the Tuesday we had.

So, to sum it up: your one true standout is Tuesday, August 18th, morning and afternoon at Bagasse. Get it while it’s good. After that, it’s a long wait until maybe the 26th or the 31st, but those are just hints.

Rusty.

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