Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it for Bagasse. This is a long-range look, but I gotta be straight with ya: the first week is a bit of a struggle. The real standout potential shows up later, so hang tight.

We start off with a real tough run. Friday the 28th of August through to the end of the first week, the wind is a constant issue – a moderate breeze out of the east, mostly cross-off or cross, which keeps it clean but the swell just isn't delivering. The wave energy is weak, sitting mostly between 270 and 400 (so, moderate at best). The swell direction is from the ENE or E, which is okay for a North-facing reef like Bagasse, but the period is only 7 to 8 seconds – that’s short-period windswell, messy and weak. Water temp is about average for this time of year, no real surprise there.

Look, the first real flicker of hope comes on Sunday the 30th of August. That morning, we see a jump: swell hits 7 ft from the ENE, period stretches to 10 seconds, and the energy climbs to 981 – that’s strong, getting into the good stuff. The wind is cross-off from the SE, so the wave face should stay clean. It’s a bit of a one-off though, because it drops again right after. The afternoon picks up even more energy (1006), but keep an eye on those tropical storms that are possible – they could mess with the breeze. This is probably the best bet in the first week, but even then, the score is only marginal. Don’t get too excited yet.

There’s a long flat gap from Monday the 31st of August all the way through to Wednesday the 9th of September. This stretch is just a grind. Swell barely cracks 4 ft, period is stuck at 7 to 8 seconds, and the energy values are embarrassing – 100 to 200 range (weak to barely moderate). The wind stays strong at 25 to 30 km/h from the east, cross-off, keeping it frustratingly close to being good but never quite getting there. Honestly, this looks way more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

Now, the second week gets interesting. Thursday the 10th of September, we get a bit of a pulse: 5 ft from the east, period climbs to 8 seconds, energy hits 442 (moderate). It’s still marginal, but the wind eases a touch. The real standout, though, is Friday the 11th of September. The morning sees a solid 7 ft from the east, period 8 seconds, and energy rockets to 761 (strong). This is the one I’d circle. The wind is a moderate breeze cross-off from the east, so it’ll be clean. That’s a decent-size wave for Bagasse, so if you’re an intermediate, you’ll be stoked. It’ll be a bit of a paddle, but the sets will be there. Crowds are “sometimes” a factor here, so expect some company on the peak. The day after, Saturday the 12th of September, holds at 5 ft with good energy (526), so it’s a solid runner-up.

Overall, the best on offer is clear: Sunday the 30th of August for the first week, and Friday the 11th of September as the real standout of the whole 16-day window. That Friday has the best combo of swell size (7 ft), reasonable period (8 seconds), and the cleanest wind setup for a good session. The long-range stuff is promising, but forecasts can shift. Stay keen.

- Rusty

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