Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey, this is Rusty, and I’ve been staring at the charts for Bagasse. I hate to say it, but it’s a pretty dead run for the next 16 days. There’s wave action, but it’s not the kind that’ll get you stoked. This is one of those stretches where you’d be better off doing something else.

It all starts on Friday, July 3rd. There’s a chest-high swell coming out of the east at about 6ft, but the period is a short, weak 8 seconds, and the combined wave energy is moderate (403). The wind is howling out of the east at near 19 mph, blowing cross-offshore. It’s clean-looking, but it’s a skunky, bumpy clean. The water is a warm 83°, which is pretty normal for the season.

And this is just the tune we’re stuck with. Through the weekend and all of next week, it’s the same broken record: 5 to 6ft of short-period easterly swell, and that east wind never lets up, running 16 to 22 mph. It’s all flagged as “poor surf conditions.” The wave energies stay in the moderate range (300s and 400s). No change, no fun.

We get a little spike on Friday, July 10th, with the swell hitting 7ft and the energy jumping to a solid 603 (moderate-strong). But right then the wind switches to a pure cross-shore and the water turns into lumpy, bumpy chop. That’s the recipe for a kite session, not a surf session. At that size, it’s expert-only on a bad day anyway.

From July 11th, the swell slowly fades from 6ft down to about 5ft by the end. The wind finally eases back to a moderate 12 mph breeze around the 15th to 17th. The calls go from “poor” to “marginal” on those days. But with that same short period, and the wind still coming from the wrong angle, it never cleans up into anything that’ll give you a proper wave.

There’s no hidden gem in this forecast. The best you can hope for is one of those marginal days around the 15th and 16th when the wind is lighter and the swell is still 5 to 6ft, but even then, the energy is weak and the period is short. For this spot, a long run of nothing special is just how it goes sometimes. The forecast can always flip, but right now I’d say save the wax for another week.

Rusty.

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