Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. We’ve got a tricky 16-day window ahead for Bagasse. Let’s break it down.

The start of the period is a write-off for a solid few days. Monday the 17th kicks off with a messy 5ft ENE swell hitting the reef, but a 12 mph cross-shore breeze and a 342 (weak) combined energy reading means the quality is just not there. You’ll be fighting a moderate cross-shore chop with poor surf conditions.

We finally get a glimmer of hope on Tuesday morning, August 18th. The swell drops to 4ft, but the wind swings offshore from the SE at 12 mph, cleaning things up nicely. The combined energy is moderate at 237, and the E swell direction is a solid match for Bagasse’s optimum N direction. This is your best early window, with clean, moderate offshore conditions. The afternoon holds that clean line too with a lighter breeze.

The rest of the first week and into the second is a long, frustrating lull with no real standouts. The swell stays small and the winds are mostly cross or cross-offshore, keeping the surf quality poor. You’ll see a jump in energy on the 23rd – 6ft ENE swell with a 457 energy reading – but the E wind at 16 mph puts it in the “poor” category. It’s just not coming together.

Now, looking ahead to Tuesday morning, August 25th, we have a promising call. A 7ft ENE swell (678 combined energy) is forecast, and the wind is set to swing offshore from the S at 12 mph. That’s clean, moderate offshore conditions and “very good surf” is on the cards. The 9-second period gives it shape. Keep in mind, at 7ft, it’s getting a bit stout for beginners, but it’s solid for the intermediates. The afternoon stays clean with a 6ft swell and offshore winds. This is the standout of the whole outlook.

After that, the last few days of August and into September are a mixed bag of marginal conditions with cross-offshore winds and moderate energy. The swell direction stays OK but the quality never hits the highs of the 25th. It’s a waiting game.

Water temp at Bagasse is a balmy 84°F, which is dead average for this time of year – no surprises there.

The crowds at Bagasse can be busy sometimes, so get in early for that Tuesday the 25th session.

Rusty out.

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