Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s get into it.

The outlook for Bagasse for the next 16 days is a bit of a slow burner. There’s a long draught at the start, so don’t expect much for well over a week. We’re looking at a dry spell from now right through until about Thursday the 24th, with hardly anything worth paddling out for in that stretch. It’s going to be frustrating, but hang in there – signs of life start showing towards the very end of the run.

Right from Tuesday the 15th, it’s poor. Tiny 3ft swell from the ENE with a short period of 8 seconds and a cross-shore breeze. Water temp is sitting at a warm 85°, which is about average for this time of year. The combined energy is weak at 146. It’s basically a write-off. Wednesday the 16th bumps up a bit to 6ft from the east with a 7-second period, and the wind turns cross-offshore, which cleans things up nicely. The energy jumps to moderate (326), but the wave comment says poor. Thursday and Friday are similar – 5ft to 4ft east swell, clean but still poor surf. The energy pulses up to 278 and 278 again, but it just doesn’t come together.

From Saturday the 19th through to Wednesday the 23rd, it really dries up. We’re talking swell heights dropping below 3ft, energy down to double digits for days on end. Not worth looking at. Classic flat spell.

Now, Thursday the 24th starts to flicker. It’s marginal at best. 4ft from the east, 8-second period, clean in the morning with moderate energy (308). Cross-off wind keeps it tidy. The afternoon gets a bit messy with a cross-shore breeze. Friday the 25th is similar, 4ft east swell, clean, but still just marginal. The energy drops a bit to 230. This is still not a standout, just the first hint of life.

The real standout, if you can wait, is the very last day: Wednesday the 30th of September. The morning brings a solid 7ft swell from the east with an 8-second period, and the combined energy is strong at 591. That’s the biggest, most powerful pulse of the entire period. The wind is cross-offshore, so it will be clean. This is expert territory – 7ft is too much for beginners. The afternoon pushes even bigger at 7ft, with a longer 9-second period and energy hitting 741. The wind goes cross-shore in the afternoon, so the morning is the pick. Crowds are listed as ‘sometimes’, so expect a few people out but not a zoo. Bagasse is a reef break, and the optimum swell direction is from the north, but east is still solid. This is the one to circle on your calendar.

Overall, wait it out. The first week and a half is a bust. The 30th is your day if you’re an experienced surfer looking for some proper power.

Rusty.

Read more