Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s have a look at what’s on offer for the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, the first week is a bit of a write-off for good surfing. The swell’s coming in from the east-northeast, but the period is short, under 8 seconds, and the wave comment is “poor surf conditions” day after day. The wind is mostly cross or cross-off, but it’s a moderate breeze, and the water temp here is 84°F with an anomaly of just 0.5°F — so it’s pretty much average for this time of year at Bagasse, a reef break that’s fairly consistent and exposed to the north. The best part of the first few days is Saturday the 8th morning, where we see a bit of a cross-off wind and clean conditions, but the swell is only 5 ft and the period is still a short 7 seconds, so the wave energy is moderate (194). It’s not going to be special. Crowds can show up here sometimes, and if the wind holds, it might be worth a look, but temper your expectations.

Things start to get more interesting from Thursday the 13th. The swell lifts to 6 ft, same short period, but the combined energy bumps up to 398 — moderate. The wind is cross-off at 22 mph, so it’s fresh but clean. Come Friday the 14th morning, we see a big jump in size: 10 ft from the east-northeast with a 9-second period, and the energy is strong at 1326. That’s solid for a bigger crew, but the wind is 25 mph and cross-off, so it’s going to be a handful. That’s expert territory. The wave comment is “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” so it’s not a perfect setup. Then Sunday the 16th morning is the biggest of the run: 12 ft from the east-northeast, 9-second period, and energy at 1787, again marginal. The wind is cross at 19 mph, so it’ll be lumpy. The standout here is probably the Sunday morning, but only for experienced surfers who can handle a big, messy wave. The afternoon improves slightly with a 10-second period, but it’s still cross-shore.

After that, the swell gradually drops through the following week, but the wave comments remain “marginal” or “poor,” with short periods and cross-off winds. It’s not going to be a classic run. The only true standout in the whole window is Saturday the 16th, where the swell size is significant and the energy is pumping, but it’s compromised by the wind and the messy conditions. For most of us, the first week is a waiting game. Keep an eye on the long-range for the second weekend, but don’t book your flights just yet.

Rusty

Read more