Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s coming our way for the next couple of weeks. Straight up, it’s a bit of a tough stretch ahead, so don’t expect any world-class days, but there are a couple of windows worth keeping an eye on.

The overall pattern is pretty ordinary. We’ve got a consistent run of moderate cross-offshore winds blowing from the east, with swell heights staying mostly around the 3 ft to 3 ft mark. The combined wave energy is weak to moderate for most of it, sitting between 59 and 128 (moderate energy values) for the bulk of the period. The water temp is a warm 84°F, about average for this time of the year, so no need for a thick suit.

The Best of the Bunch

The only break showing up is Bagasse, a reef setup that’s fairly consistent and exposed to the north for optimum swell direction. The main issue here is that the wind and swell are coming from the east, which isn’t its best angle. Crowds are possible at times here, so keep that in mind.

The closest to a standout comes around Wednesday the 9th and Thursday the 10th of September. Early morning sessions will see the best of it. Swell bumps up to 6 ft to 6 ft from the east-northeast, with a short period of 8 seconds. The combined energy jumps into the strong range – hitting 570 (strong wave energy) on Wednesday morning. That’s the most energy we’ll see. Winds are a fresh 19 mph from the east, which is cross-offshore, keeping the faces reasonably clean. However, with the swell pushing near 7 ft, it's starting to get a bit chunky for the beginners. It’s rideable, but it won’t be a classic, and the short period means it’ll be a bit lumpy and close together.

After that, it fades. From Friday the 12th onward, it’s a slow decline. Swell drops back below 5 ft, and the energy slides back into the weak to moderate range. By the second week, through the 15th to the 20th of September, it’s pretty flat and uninspiring – energy levels dip as low as 59 (weak wave energy). Winds stay up, and the conditions are described as “poor” across the board. There’s a gap of several days with no real recommendations after the 12th, so don’t hold your breath for the second weekend.

The Call: If you’re keen, your best chance is the morning of Wednesday the 9th or Thursday the 10th. It’s not going to be perfect, but it’s the most size we’ll see. For the rest of it, it’s a waiting game. The consistency here is usually a bit better than this, so forecasts can change, but as it stands, it’s a lean run.

Rusty.

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