Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Bagasse over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, it’s a bit of a tough stretch. The forecast is showing a long gap with no real quality surf on offer. We’re lookin’ at a run of poor conditions right from the start on Thursday the 30th of July, with onshore and cross-shore winds messin’ up any chance of a clean wave. That trend sticks around for several days. The first glimmer of somethin’ actually worth paddlin’ out for doesn’t show up until Saturday morning, August the 1st. Even then, it’s marginal. The swell is small at 5ft from the ENE, and the period is short at 8 seconds, so it’ll be a bit weak and crumbly. The combined energy is only moderate (277). The wind is a cross-off from the East at 12 mph, which is a big positive – it’ll keep the surface clean. But for a reef break, that short period doesn’t do it many favours.

The water temp is about average for the time of year, so nothin’ weird goin’ on there.

The real standout, and the only one I’d get excited about, is much later in the window. Look at Tuesday the 11th of August. The afternoon session shows a jump in size to 8ft from the ENE, with a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy jumps to a solid 628 (moderate), and the wind is a clean cross-off from the East at 16 mph. That’s proper surfable size and clean conditions for Bagasse. It’s a bit on the bigger side, so it’ll be more for the intermediate crew who know the reef. The crowds are listed as “sometimes” here, so you might have a few others with the same idea, but it won’t be a zoo.

The rest of the window is a write-off. The swell drops off, the wind stays on it, or the energy is just too weak. We get a few days in the second week where the wind is cross-off again, but the swell is too small or the period is junk. There’s a brief spike of 6ft on the mornin’ of Tuesday the 11th, but the afternoon is the real winner. After that, the wind gets crankin’ again from the ENE at 19-22 mph, turnin’ it lumpy and messy.

So, to sum it up: you’ve got a long wait for a clean but small window on the 1st of August, but the real day to circle on the calendar is Tuesday the 11th of August for the afternoon session. That’s your best bet, but it’s a long way off, so keep an eye on it. Until then, it’s a lot of nothin’.

Stay stoked, and I’ll catch you in the water.

Rusty.

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