Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for any decent paddle. We’ve got a lot of small, weak, and short-period swell, and that east wind just won’t quit. If you’re thinking about getting out there, you’re going to be fighting a cross-off breeze that’s more about chop than clean faces. Honestly, for the next week or so, you might be better off dusting off the kite or just watching the horizon.

Right off the bat, we’re looking at a flat spell. Starting Sunday, August 2nd, there’s nothing doing. The swell is small, around 5ft, but it’s weak, with a period of only 7 seconds, and the energy is low. The wind is a cross-off from the east at 15 mph, which is making things messy. It’s not worth your time. This continues through Monday and Tuesday – the swell just fades away. By Wednesday, August 5th, it’s down to ankle-biters, maybe 2ft. Forget it. We’re in the middle of a real lull here, a solid few days of nothing.

Thursday comes and goes with the same story. It’s not until Friday, August 7th, that we see a little pulse of energy, but it’s not enough to get excited about. The swell bumps back up to 4ft, but the period is a short 6 seconds, so it's all mush. The wind is picking up to 19 mph, and the surf quality is still poor. We go through the weekend and into the next week with the same old story: 3ft to 5ft of short-period east swell, and a consistent cross-off breeze that’s just not giving us anything clean. The energy readings are all in the low to mid hundreds, meaning the ocean is just not putting any power into the waves. It’s frustrating, I know.

Now, let’s talk about the second week. Things are going to get bigger, but not necessarily better. From Wednesday, August 12th, we see the swell start to build. The energy numbers start climbing into the three hundreds, and by Thursday, August 13th, we’re looking at 7ft of swell. That’s a step up, but the period is still only 8 seconds, which isn't giving us the power we want. The wind is also going to be a problem. We’re looking at fresh breezes at 22 mph. The water temp is about average for this time of year, but you won't be worrying about that if you can't even get a wave.

The real standout in this entire 16-day stretch is Bagasse. It’s a reef break that's fairly consistent, and while it's exposed, the optimum direction for it is from the north. That's important, because all this swell we're seeing is from the east. The swell direction just isn't working for this spot. Even when the swell gets to 7ft on Saturday, August 15th, and the energy readings jump up into the high hundreds, the direction is wrong. It's going to be a mess. The forecast notes just say “poor surf conditions” and “marginal.” This spot is only going to be worth it for the experts, and even then, the conditions have to be right. It's a rare breakout that just isn't aligning for us.

So, here’s the honest take: there is no good surf on offer in this entire forecast period. We’ve got a long stretch of small, weak surf, followed by a pulse of bigger, but poorly directed, energy. The wind is constantly ruining the surface. It's a blank run, and for an area like this, that’s just the way it goes sometimes. Don't hold your breath. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d be finding another hobby for the next couple of weeks.

Stay stoked, but stay home.

Rusty

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