Surf Forecasts:
Bagasse surf forecast from 4 Jul 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 11 Jul, 5AM (local time) - 6.5ft (2.0m), 8s period, E swell with 562 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Bagasse this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Bagasse in the next 16 days are 2.0m 8s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 11) at 5AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.2m 4s period and expected on Monday (Jul 06) at 5PM.
| Wave Type | Time (AST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 5AM (Sat 11th Jul) | 6.5ft (2.0m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Bagasse over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Right, let’s have a look at what Bagasse is doing over this sixteen-day stretch. I’ll be straight with you—this is a frustrating run for paddle surfing. We’re looking at a reef break that’s fairly consistent, but the stars are not aligning. The water temp is sitting at 83°, which is about normal for this time of year, so that’s not giving us any trouble.
The overall pattern is grim: for the first week, from Saturday July 4th right through to Tuesday July 14th, it’s just a long grind of poor surf conditions. The swell is hanging around 5 ft to 6 ft out of the east and east-northeast, with a short period of just 8 seconds. That’s weak, choppy, wind-swell, and the energy is moderate at best. The wind is a cross-off or cross breeze, blowing at 15 to 22 mph, which is just keeping things messy. There isn’t a single day in that first week worth getting excited about.
Then, from Wednesday July 15th through the rest of the run up to Sunday July 19th, the swell drops a bit, down to 4 ft to 5 ft, still with that same short period. The wind remains a persistent cross-off. Honestly, the surf quality stays poor, with only a couple of days on July 10th and 16th where the conditions are merely “marginal” rather than rubbish. The break is exposed and should catch whatever’s out there, but the swell direction is all wrong for the optimum northerly direction this reef wants.
If I had to pick the best on offer, and I’m really scraping the barrel here, it would be the Thursday July 16th morning session. The swell is down to about 4 ft from the east-northeast, and the wind is a lighter 12 mph cross-off. It’s the cleanest of a bad lot. Even then, it’s going to be marginal. Crowds are possible here sometimes, but with this forecast, you might have the place to yourself.
For the rest of the run, through to July 19th, there’s just nothing to recommend. It’s a gap of several days with no proper surf. This is a blank run that feels more normal for this area when the trade winds lock in. With that moderate swell and strong, steady winds, this setup honestly looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Stay patient, and remember forecasts can change.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Warm (max 29°C on Sat morning, min 26°C on Sat night). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 2mm), mostly falling on Tue night. Warm (max 28°C on Tue morning, min 26°C on Tue night). Mainly fresh winds. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 4 | Sunday 5 | Monday 6 | Tuesday 7 | Wednesday 8 | Thursday 9 | Friday 10 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 432 | 393 | 386 | 393 | 358 | 393 | 403 | 403 | 412 | 402 | 359 | 392 | 450 | 427 | 485 | 476 | 488 | 539 | 548 | 548 | 548 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 7:21PM0.34m | 5:51AM0.38m | 7:39PM0.36m | 6:44AM0.34m | 8:03PM0.39m | 7:48AM0.30m | 8:34PM0.41m | 9:13AM0.26m | 9:12PM0.43m | 9:57PM0.44m | 10:51PM0.46m | ||||||||||
Low Tide | 12:34PM0.12m | 00:08AM0.29m | 12:55PM0.15m | 1:46AM0.27m | 1:10PM0.18m | 3:17AM0.23m | 1:20PM0.20m | 4:29AM0.18m | 1:24PM0.22m | 5:32AM0.12m | 6:30AM0.06m | ||||||||||
 | |  | | | |  | |  | | |  | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 5:39 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:41 | — | — | 5:41 | — | — |
 | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:37 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 29 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 26 | 28 | 28 | 27 |
Feels °C | 26 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 24 | 26 | 26 | 25 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 6 | NE 6 | NE 7 | NE 6 | NE 7 | NE 6 | NE 7 | NE 7 | N 10 | — | NE 8 | NE 13 | NE 12 | ENE 12 | NE 11 | NE 11 | NE 10 | NE 7 | SSE 4 | SE 4 | — |
| kJ | 38 | 31 | 36 | 30 | 49 | 33 | 44 | 51 | 2 | — | 57 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 29 | 28 | 65 | 2 | 1 | — |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | ENE 8 | SE 4 | ENE 8 | SE 4 | SE 4 | SE 4 | SSE 4 | SE 4 | — | SE 4 | SE 4 | NE 12 | NE 12 | SSE 4 | ENE 11 | NE 10 | SE 9 | SE 9 | SE 6 | — |
| kJ | — | 6 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 2 | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | SE 4 | — | — | — | — | S 6 | S 5 | — | — | — | — | — | SE 4 | S 7 | S 7 | — | — | E 9 |
| kJ | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — | — | 2 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 |
| kJ | 432 | 393 | 386 | 393 | 358 | 393 | 403 | 403 | 412 | 402 | 359 | 392 | 450 | 427 | 485 | 476 | 488 | 539 | 548 | 548 | 548 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 615 | 319 | 517 | 319 | 319 | 517 | 404 | 319 | 178 | 319 | 319 | 517 | 615 | 764 | 615 | 615 | 517 | 517 | 787 | 755 | 504 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Martinique | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Martinique | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Bagasse Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Bagasse provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Bagasse can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Bagasse surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Bagasse) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Bagasse may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Bagasse is 24 km (15 miles) from Sainte-Marie. If you plan a holiday in Martinique, look for hotels and other accommodation in Sainte-Marie. Sainte-Marie has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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