Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what we’ve got for Bagasse over the next couple of weeks. I’ll be straight with you – it is a bit of a frustrating stretch, but there’s a flicker of hope if you’re patient.

Right now, the story is about a reef break that’s exposed to the wind. We’ve got a constant, fresh cross-offshore breeze from the east, with swell heights sitting around 5 ft to 6 ft and a short, weak 8-second period. The combined wave energy (around 386 to 447) is moderate, but the wind is just too strong to let the wave quality come together – it's churning things up and the conditions are locked in as poor through this whole first week. That east-northeast swell direction isn’t matching the optimum north swell direction either, so the break isn’t reaching its potential. For a fairly consistent spot, it's a let-down.

That pattern holds steady through Sunday the 7th, Monday the 8th, and well into the mid-week. The wind gusts up to 19 mph, and on the afternoons from Wednesday the 9th the wind swings more cross-shore, creating a lumpy cross-chop that kills any chance of a clean face. If you are a beginner, please stay clear – some of these swells are pushing 6 ft and that’s already on the bigger side for reef, and the short period makes for a frustrating paddle anyway.

Now, a small window begins to open around Thursday the 18th of July. Through that weekend, from Saturday morning the 18th, the wind finally drops back to a moderate 12 mph cross-offshore breeze, and the swell starts to nudge up to 6 ft and then 6 ft with the same ENE direction on Sunday the 19th morning and afternoon. The combined energy jumps to around 506 – moderate, but respectable. It’s still a short period groundswell (8 seconds), so the waves will be a bit sectiony and dumpy on the reef, but it’ll be clean. The forecast only rates this as marginal, but I’ll tell you – that Sunday afternoon window with clean conditions, moderate breeze, and that 6 ft of east-northeast swell is the pick of the entire outlook. Crowds are possible here, so expect some company.

We see the trend continue into Monday morning the 20th, with the swell even touching 7 ft, which steps it up another notch – that one is for the experienced folk. The energy reaches 626, which is solid moderate. But it’s still a short-period swell, and with an east-northeast wind, it’s not quite the magic directional match we want. Still, if you can get out there early Monday, it’s worth a look.

Overall, the first couple of weeks are a write-off thanks to the persistent wind and lumpy sea states. The only real standouts come in the back half of the month: Sunday the 19th afternoon and Monday the 20th morning. Keep your eyes on those two, but treat them as promising, not nailed-on.

Rusty signing off.

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