Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a good look at what’s coming down the line for Bagasse.

Alright, to be straight with you, the next 16 days at Bagasse is a tough watch. There’s really nothing in the first week that I’d call good surf. We’ve got a persistent onshore breeze from the east and east-northeast that’s keeping things messy, and the scores across the board reflect that. You’re looking at a solid stretch of poor conditions, with stuff from knee-high to just over head-high, but that wind is just ruining it. Water temp is sitting at a normal 84°F for this time of year, so you won’t need a thick suit, but you’ll be battling the chop more than enjoying the ride.

The real kicker is that there’s no standout session here. Tuesday morning, August 11, has a tiny 1 ft swell from the north-northeast with a weak 32 combined energy, and cross-off winds from the ESE at 9 mph, but it’s just too small to get excited about. Even when the swell pushes up to 7 ft on Friday, August 14, that strong ENE breeze at 25 mph is going to leave the surface lumpy and uninviting.

We do see a little promise rolling in around Monday, August 17. The morning has a 6 ft east-northeast swell with a period stretching out to 11 seconds (groundswell energy), and the wind drops to a gentle 9 mph from the east, keeping it cross-off and clean. The combined energy is 894 – moderate but punchy. That’s your best window, but still only a marginal call. For a reef break like Bagasse, that longer period can mean better shape, but the swell direction is ENE and the optimum here is from the north. It’s not a perfect match, so the wave quality might be a bit walled up.

After that, it fades back down through the second week. By August 25 and 26, the swell bumps back up to 6 ft to 5 ft with moderate energy (401 and 262), but once again that cross-off wind gets replaced by a fresh cross-shore breeze, chopping things up. Overall, it’s a long stretch of mostly poor surf. If you’re desperate for a paddle, Monday morning August 17 is the only one I’d even consider, but keep your expectations low. There are no true standouts in this window. The setup here is better suited for a kite session than a traditional paddle surf through most of this period.

Rusty.

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