Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I’m not going to sugarcoat it. The immediate outlook is pretty flat and messy. We’ve got a stretch of ordinary conditions on the way, with the first few days offering nothing worth getting excited about. The swell is small and short period, the wind is mostly cross or cross-off, and the wave comments are all screaming “poor.” It’s gonna be a waiting game.

Things start to change around the 29th of July. That’s when we see a noticeable bump in size at Bagasse (reef), with swell hitting 7 ft to 7 ft from the ENE. The energy jumps up to a solid (681-765), which is a big step up from the weak dribble we’ve been dealing with. The wind, while still cross-off, is a bit stronger, but the surf is clean. This is the standout window in the whole 16-day run. That afternoon on the 29th and into the morning of the 30th of July are the best bets. The swell is getting up there, over 7 ft, so it’s not for beginners. This is solid intermediate territory, and with that longer period (8 seconds), it’ll have a bit more punch. The water temp is about 83° with a normal anomaly, so it’s your typical tropical bath.

The break itself is a reef setup, so it’ll handle that ENE swell well. Crowds are noted as “sometimes,” so you might get a few others out, but it shouldn’t be a zoo. The wind is cross-off, which keeps the face clean, but it’s a fresh breeze, so expect some bumps.

After that, the surf slowly backs off into the first week of August. The 1st of August still has some knee-to-waist high waves, but the energy drops off. By the 5th, we’re back to weak, short-period slop, with energy values under 100 (96). It’s a real letdown after that midweek pulse.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a write-off. The only real highlight is that window from the 29th of July through the 30th of July at Bagasse. If you’ve got flex, that’s your target. The rest is a long, quiet spell.

Rusty.

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