Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming our way at Bagasse.

Straight up, the next week and a half is going to be pretty ordinary. The wind is mostly cross or cross-off from the east, which is okay, but the swell is small and short-period, and the energy just isn’t there. The combined swell energy is weak to moderate, sitting mostly between 117 and 361 (moderate wave energy at best). We’ve got a lot of days where the surf is just poor or marginal, so don’t get your hopes up too early.

Friday the 21st of August through to Monday the 24th of August is basically a write-off. The swell is 3ft to 5ft from the east-northeast, period of 7 to 8 seconds, and cross winds are messing up the face. Not worth paddling out.

Tuesday the 25th of August morning shows a bit of a pulse – 4ft from the east-northeast with a 9-second period and clean conditions, combined energy of 250. It’s still only marginal, but the window is a little more open. That afternoon though, the swell bumps to 5ft but the wind goes cross and the energy spikes to 361 – still poor quality, too much chop.

From Wednesday the 26th through to Thursday the 27th of August, we’re stuck in the same pattern: 4ft to 5ft, east-northeast, 8-second period, cross-off winds. It’s clean but the waves are weak and short. You might get a couple of closeouts, but nothing to write home about.

Now, the standout window looks to be around Friday the 28th of August into Saturday the 29th of August. Friday afternoon the swell picks up to 7ft from the east, 8-second period, cross-off wind, and the combined energy hits 612 (strong wave energy). That’s a noticeable bump, and the conditions are clean. Saturday morning the 29th is the real spike: 10ft from the east, 9-second period, fresh cross-off breeze at 30 km/h, and the energy jumps to 1599 – that’s very strong. This is proper groundswell energy, but at 10ft it’s for experienced surfers only. The 9-second period means it won’t be too walled up, but it’s still a big, powerful wave. If you’re comfortable in heavy water, Saturday morning is your best shot of the whole forecast.

Sunday the 30th of August drops back to 6ft, and by Monday the 31st we’re down to 4ft with offshore wind from the south-southeast – that could be clean, but it’s small and weak. After that, into the first week of September, we’re back to tiny, weak 3ft to 4ft swells with no real power. The last hopeful day is Thursday the 3rd of September morning: 4ft from the east, 7-second period, gentle cross-off breeze, and the forecast actually says “expect good surf conditions” – combined energy 201. That’s a modest window but might give you a fun, small-wave session.

For the whole 16-day run, the water temp is 84°F, which is about average for the time of year, so no need to worry about a wetsuit.

Honestly, if you’re not an expert, sit out the 10ft day. For everyone else, Saturday the 29th of August morning is the only true standout – big, clean, and powerful. Otherwise, it’s a long stretch of small, mediocre surf with a few marginal windows. Keep an eye on the wind shifts, because a proper offshore day could make even the small stuff fun.

Rusty.

Read more