Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s talk about Bagasse. Honestly, the next couple of weeks are looking pretty slim. There’s some wave energy around, but most of it comes with dodgy wind or just doesn’t have the quality we’re after. You’ll see a few sessions worth paddling out for, but nothing that’s going to get the blood pumping until we get right out to the end of the window.

Alright, starting from Monday the 14th, we’ve got a little bit of swell coming through at 4ft from the east, but it’s short period stuff – only 8 seconds – and with a moderate cross-off breeze from the east at 15 mph, the surface is clean enough but the energy’s weak (191). It’s a reef break, pretty consistent, but the overall wave quality is poor. Not worth dragging the board out for.

Tuesday the 15th, the swell drops to 3ft and smaller, still from the east with a period of just 7 to 8 seconds, and the wind swings a bit cross-shore, putting a chop on the face. The combined energy dips to 143 then 85, so it’s real weak. Poor conditions all day.

Wednesday the 16th, we see a slight bump – 5ft from the east – and while the cross-off wind keeps things looking clean, it’s still short period (7 to 8 seconds) and the energy is only moderate at 221 to 235. The rating is a 1, meaning marginal, and the surf is just not good enough to get excited about.

Thursday the 17th holds steady at 4ft to 5ft, same east swell, but still that short period and the cross-off wind. Energy sits around 214 to 237. Still poor.

Friday the 18th, the swell backs off to 3ft and smaller, energy drops to 135 and 110, and while the wind eases a touch, it’s still cross-off and messy. Not your day.

Saturday the 19th, we finally get a tiny reprieve. The swell is down to 2ft from the east, period at 7 seconds, but the wind lightens to 6 mph. The conditions are clean and the surf is “surfable but very ordinary.” I’ll give you that – you might get a couple of knee-high runners if you’re desperate. But honestly, even then it’s a 1 out of 10.

From Sunday the 20th through to Thursday the 24th of September, the swell fades right out. Heights at 2ft or less, periods between 6 and 9 seconds, and mostly cross-off or cross winds. The combined energy is weak, between 29 and 76. The odd morning might be clean, but the waves are tiny. This is a gap of about five days with nothing really worth chasing.

Friday the 25th, there’s a sudden spike in the afternoon – 4ft from the east at 7 seconds, but still poor conditions. The energy jumps to 193 but the quality is low.

Saturday the 26th and Sunday the 27th, the swell sits around 4ft to 4ft from the east, with moderate cross-off winds and moderate energy (206 to 258). The score for these sessions creeps up to a 1 – marginal. Still, the period is short, so the waves will be a bit weak and close out quick. Not a standout, but a session you could scratch around in the morning.

Monday the 28th, similar story: 4ft east swell, 7 to 8 seconds, cross-off wind, energy around 213 to 220. Marginal at best.

Now, here’s the one to circle on the calendar. Tuesday the 29th of September. The morning brings 5ft from the east-northeast, still short period (8 seconds), but look at that combined energy: 605. That’s strong wave energy. The wind is a moderate cross-off from the east at 15 mph, so it’s clean. Bagasse is a reef break, so that east-northeast swell direction should line up nicely – the optimum direction here is north for the swell, but this ENE is the closest we’ve seen. The score is a 2, which is the best in the whole forecast. This is the standout. Moderate swell, clean conditions, and a reef setup that handles this size well. Perfect for an intermediate surfer. If you can, get on it Tuesday morning.

Crowds at Bagasse can be an issue sometimes, so maybe aim for an early paddle if you want a peak to yourself. Water temperature is average for this time of year, nothing unusual.

So overall, there’s a lot of meh, and one possible session on the 29th that might just fire. Until then, keep an eye on the sky.

Rusty.

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