Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's get into it.

Looking at the 16-day window for Bagasse, and I gotta be straight with you—it’s a slow start. We’ve got a few days of small, weak, and messy conditions before anything really gets going. The water’s sitting at a warm 85°, about average for this time of year, so the wetsuit's staying in the shed for now.

The opening of the period is pretty grim. Tuesday the 15th has a weak 3ft swell from the ENE with a short, snappy period of just 6 seconds, and it’s blown out by a 12 mph cross-shore. Total energy is a paltry 86, which tells you there’s nothing doing. Not worth paddling out.

We see a slight pulse on Wednesday the 16th morning, with the swell bumping up to 6ft from the East, but period stays short at 8 seconds. The wind is an 18 mph cross-offshore, which keeps it clean, but the energy is still only moderate at 323. The afternoon sees similar 6ft surf, but it's labelled marginal. This pattern of clean but weak swell hangs around for a few days.

Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th are more of the same: 5ft to 3ft waves, all short-period from the East. The energy dips from 284 right down to 105. The wind is manageable, with a cross-offshore breeze, but the waves just don't have any punch.

The weekend into Monday, the 20th and 21st, sees the swell flatten right out, dropping to 1ft and staying there. Energy numbers are in the teens and twenties – that’s essentially flat. It stays like this, gutless, right through to Wednesday the 23rd.

Okay, now for the light at the end of the tunnel. We get a bit of a lift on Thursday the 24th morning. Swell comes back up to 4ft from the East, still short period at 8 seconds, but the combined energy is a solid 261, which is moderate. Winds are light from the East and it’s clean. It’s nothing to write home about, but it’s surfable.

Friday the 25th through Sunday the 27th, the swell holds around the 3ft to 4ft mark, but it's mostly plagued by cross-shore winds that add a chop. Energy sits between 153 and 243, so it’s weak-to-moderate.

Now, Monday the 28th is where your patience pays off. The afternoon shows 3ft from the East, but look at this: the wind swings to the Southeast at 12 mph and goes directly offshore. That’s a big deal. The energy bumps up to 249 and the forecast says "expect good surf conditions." That offshore breeze will make the faces as clean as a whistle. It’s still short-period at 7 seconds, but a clean, offshore 3ft wave is way better than a messy 5ft one.

The best of the whole run, if I’m picking a standout, is actually that Monday afternoon session on the 28th of September. The swell direction from the East matches up well with what this break likes, and that clean offshore wind is the key. It's not big, so it’s perfect for intermediates.

The last few days, the 29th and 30th of September, keep offering 3ft surf from the East with light cross-offshore winds. The energy hangs around the 200-240 mark, so it's consistent, but nothing special. Still, for a spot that had a week of nothing, this is a welcome recovery. It tends not to stay poor for long here.

Stay patient, get out there on Monday the 28th afternoon for the cleanest waves of the window.

Rusty.

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