Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for our little patch of coast, focusing on Bagasse. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, so let’s break it down.

The immediate outlook is pretty grim. We’re staring at a long stretch of nothing special, with the first real action not showing up until the morning of Wednesday the 29th of July. Before that, we’ve got a few days of small, weak, and ordinary conditions. On Sunday the 26th, we get a tiny 4ft swell from the ENE with a short 8-second period, but the wave energy is weak (155) and the conditions are just “surfable.” Monday and Tuesday are even worse – small, poor surf with a cross-chop. It’s a dead zone.

Now, Wednesday the 29th of July is where things get interesting. The wind swings to a consistent cross-off from the E, and the swell jumps up to a solid 8ft from the ENE. The wave energy ramps up to a strong 804, which is serious stuff. This is big, powerful, short-period swell. At 8ft, this is getting into expert territory – it’s going to be a handful for anyone who isn’t comfortable in heavy water. The reef at Bagasse will be working, but you’ll need your wits about you. The clean conditions from that cross-off wind are a huge plus, but the size and the short period (8 seconds) mean it’ll be a bit of a washing machine, with heaps of whitewater.

Thursday the 30th holds similar, with a 7ft swell and 603 energy, still clean. Friday the 31st backs off a touch to 6ft, still clean in the morning but getting a bit lumpy in the afternoon. Saturday the 1st of August sees the swell drop to 5ft and the period lengthens to 10 seconds, which is a much nicer, more manageable wave. The energy is moderate (399), and the gentle cross-off breeze will keep it clean. This is the standout of the whole run. It’s the most user-friendly size, with a better period, and clean conditions. For a surfer, this is the window to aim for.

After that, it’s a slow fade. Sunday the 2nd of August through to the end of the forecast window on Monday the 10th of August, we’re back to small, weak, and mostly poor conditions. The swell drops below 5ft, and the wind stays fresh, either cross-off or cross. The energy is low, and the period is short. It’s basically a write-off for the second week.

The best bet for the whole 16-day window is Saturday the 1st of August at Bagasse. The morning will have a clean 5ft swell from the ENE with a 10-second period and a gentle E breeze. The wave energy at 399 is moderate, but it’s the best balance of size and quality. The crowds are listed as “sometimes,” so you might have some company, but it’s worth it. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing weird going on there.

Stay safe out there, and don’t get caught inside on the big Wednesday.

Rusty.

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