Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, grab a coffee, because we’ve got a bit of a wait on our hands. The outlook for Bagasse is a real mixed bag, and honestly, the first few days are a write-off. We’re not seeing anything worth paddling out for until the middle of next week, so you’ve got a gap of about a week with no real recommendations.

The opening salvos on Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th are a bit of a tease. There’s some size, with 10ft and then 8ft dropping to 7ft, all from the east, but it’s coming with a strong, fresh cross-off breeze and a pretty average period of 10 seconds dropping to 9. The wave energy is strong (1736) and then moderate (1262), but the conditions are marginal at best, with risk of thunderstorms. Not worth the hassle.

The wind stays stubbornly in the east for most of the period, keeping things cross-off or cross, which is a bit of a pain. The Monday and Tuesday are a write-off – the swell drops, and the quality is just poor.

The first real chance to get your feet wet doesn’t look like it’ll happen until Wednesday the 19th of August. The morning sees a tiny 3ft from the east, period of 8 seconds. The energy is weak (148), but the wind is a light breeze from the SE, making it a clean, cross-off. The forecast says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions,” which is about right. It’s not going to be a classic, but it’s the first window that’s not completely blown out.

The real standout, the one that’s worth holding out for, is the afternoon of Monday the 24th of August. The swell kicks back up to 7ft from the ENE, with a very long period of 12 seconds. The combined energy jumps to a strong 1310. This is a proper groundswell. The wind is a moderate cross-off from the east, which should keep it reasonably clean. Now, a 7ft, long-period swell on a reef break like Bagasse is going to be a serious wave. It’s likely too big for beginners, but for the experienced crew, this could be the best session of the outlook. The water is about 84°F, which is a touch warmer than average for the time of year, but nothing wild.

The rest of the month after that is a bit of a letdown. The wind stays on it, and the swell drops off again into the 3ft to 5ft range with short periods of 7-8 seconds, keeping the energy weak. There are a few mornings with clean conditions, but it’s just not going to have any punch.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a bust. The Wednesday the 19th is a chance for a knee-high, clean but ordinary session. The real target is the Monday the 24th of August – that afternoon session with the 7ft, 12-second groundswell is the one to circle. Just know that it’s a long-range call, so keep an eye on it. The rest of the time, you’re better off finding something else to do.

Rusty

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