Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's on the menu for Bagasse.

Honestly, it’s a tough stretch ahead. The forecast is a bit of a grind, with a lot of "poor surf conditions" in the mix and not many windows where it all comes together for a proper paddle. The first few days are pretty flat and messy, so we’re looking at a slow start.

Wednesday July 22nd kicks off with small 3ft windswell from the east, period a short 7 seconds. The water’s warm at 83°, pretty normal for this time of year. You’ve got a steady cross-off breeze, but the wave quality is just lacking – the energy is weak (94). It’s clean-looking, but there's just not enough push.

We get a gradual bump in size going into Friday July 25th, with the swell hitting 5ft and the energy picking up into the moderate range (256). Still a short-period 8 seconds from the east-northeast, and the wind stays cross-off. The conditions improve from “poor” to just “marginal” by Saturday morning, so there’s at least a chance of a few rideable ones, but nothing to get overly excited about. The consistency is “fairly consistent” here, which is a positive, but the quality just isn't there.

Sunday July 26th sees the swell drop back to 4ft, and it’s all pretty ordinary. We’re basically in a holding pattern of 3ft to 5ft, cross-off winds, and broken up by a few afternoon storm risks, until Tuesday July 28th when things start to look a bit more interesting.

The standout window looks to be from Wednesday July 30th into the first days of August. The swell picks up steadily, hitting 7ft by the 29th and holding around that 6ft-7ft mark through the weekend. The energy jumps into the strong range, hitting 626 on the 29th and 631 on the 30th. The period is still a short 8 seconds, which means it’s a bit dumpy and doesn't have that groundswell punch, but the size is there. For a reef break, the east-northeast direction is good.

The best call? Thursday July 31st morning. You’ve got a solid 5ft swell from the east, cross-off wind, and clean conditions. The energy is still considerable (415). It’s not a classic, perfect day, but it’s the most likely window for a decent session with some push. Friday the 1st and Saturday the 2nd of August also hold some promise with 5ft to 7ft, but the storm risks might mess with the wind.

If I had to pick a true standout with cleaner conditions, I’d lean toward Sunday August 3rd morning. You’ve got a solid 7ft of east-northeast swell, moderate wind from the same direction keeping it cross-off, and the energy readings are high (576). It’s not perfect – still a short period – but for this stretch, that’s as good as it’s going to get. The setup looks more interesting for the intermediate crew; beginners might find that 7ft a bit hefty with a short period.

Right, that’s the picture from here. Stay patient.

Rusty

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