Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. We’ve got a pretty grim 16-day stretch ahead. The first surfable day is Saturday, July 11th, but honestly, it’s not looking good. The whole period is plagued by poor conditions, with only a couple of days that are even marginal.

For the first week and a half, from the 11th through to the 21st of July, the consistent easterly wind is a killer. It’s mostly cross or cross-off, gusting at 18 to 19 mph, which is just shredding the surface. The swell is a short-period, weak windswell – around 4 to 6 ft, with periods of 7 to 8 seconds, and the combined energy is moderate at best, like 468 (kW/m) on that first Saturday before it drops. The water temperature is 83°F, which is about average for the time of year. The only break we’ve got to work with is Bagasse, a reef setup. It’s a fairly consistent spot, but the wind and swell combo just aren’t cooperating. The swell is coming from the ENE and E, and the optimum for this break is from the N, so it’s a total mismatch. The surf is just poor, with a cross-chop that makes it a messy, frustrating paddle.

On Saturday, July 18th, the swell bumps up to 7 ft, but it’s still a short-period, 8-second windswell from the E, with a combined energy of 531 (kW/m). The wind is a fresh 19 to 22 mph cross-shore, which just makes it a lumpy, blown-out mess. That size is too big for beginners, and the conditions are only for the hardcore, but honestly, even then it’s not worth it. This setup actually looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Now, there is a tiny spark of hope. Clear skies and a light 9 to 12 mph cross-off wind on Tuesday, July 21st produce a “marginal” forecast. The swell is 4 ft from the ENE with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy is 230 (kW/m). It’s the only time in the whole run where the conditions are even close to clean. The wind is light and cross-off, which is a major positive. But it’s still a short-period swell, and the wave comment is “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” so it’s not a standout. The crowds at Bagasse can be present sometimes, so you might have a few heads out, but it’s the only option.

The rest of the second week, from the 22nd to the 26th of July, is a total washout. The wind kicks back up to 15 to 19 mph, the swell drops to 4 ft, and the energy is weak (140 to 291 kW/m). The surf is poor again. For a break that’s fairly consistent, this is a cruel run of blank days. Don’t hold your breath, but things can change quickly here.

Rusty.

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