Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks. Straight up, it’s a tough stretch. The forecast is telling me we’ve got a long run of days where the conditions just aren’t coming together for a proper session. We’re looking at a gap of nearly a week before anything even sniffs at being worthwhile, so don’t be in a hurry.

The first spot on the radar is Bagasse, a reef break. It’s a fairly consistent wave, but the wind blows from the east and east-northeast for most of the first week, keeping it in a cross or cross-off wind. That wind is also pretty stiff, a moderate to fresh breeze, which is going to put a chop on the surface. The swell is small too, mostly around 3 ft to 4 ft, coming from the ENE with a short period of only 6 to 7 seconds. That’s weak, jumbled energy — the combined energy readings are in the low hundreds (93 to 163), which tells you there’s just not much grunt in the water. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing wild there.

Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th of August start to see some pulse. The swell builds to 7 ft and 8 ft, and the combined energy jumps into the 400s and 700s — moderate wave energy now. The period is still sitting at 8 seconds, so it’s a short-period wind swell, not a long, lined-up groundswell. The wind is still cross-off from the east, but it’s a strong breeze, blowing 19 to 25 mph. That’s way too much wind for a clean session. It’s big, but it’s blown out, and for a reef break, the wind direction isn’t ideal. This is frankly more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The real stand-out, if you can call it that, is a *very* marginal call on Friday the 14th of August afternoon. The swell is 8 ft from the ENE, period 8 seconds, and the wind drops slightly to 19 mph. The combined energy is 761, and the forecast says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” It’s not good, but it’s the least bad. For a reef break, with that much wind, it’s going to be a battle.

The following weekend, the 16th and 17th of August, the swell holds around 7 ft, and the wind eases to a moderate breeze. The energy is still moderate (in the 500s and 700s). The break is consistent, but the wind is cross-off or cross, and the period is 8 to 9 seconds. It’s still a marginal proposition. The crowds are “sometimes” here, so you might have it fairly quiet, which is a plus.

After that, the swell drops back down to 5 ft and 4 ft, and the energy falls away. The wind stays cross-off or cross. It’s just not coming together.

So, the honest truth is there’s no real standout in this window. The best you’re looking at is the 16th and 17th of August, and even that is a “promising but less certain” call from the longer range. It’s a period where the ocean is throwing a lot of energy at us, but the wind is ruining the party. For a reef break like Bagasse, you need the wind to be more offshore to make that clean, peeling wave. We’re not getting that.

Stay patient. It’s a flat spell with a side of gale-force frustration.

Rusty.

Read more