Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, let’s have a look at Bagasse. It’s a reef setup that’s fairly consistent, but the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim, if I’m being honest. There’s a bit of a nothing start here, really.

We kick things off on Wednesday the 9th of September with some chest-high swell, around 6 ft from the ENE, but it’s short-period stuff at 8 seconds. Combined energy is moderate, coming in at 513, but the real killer is the wind – a solid 16 mph from the east, cross-off. That’s not terrible for shape, but it’s not glassy, and the water’s warm at 85°, which is about average for this time of year. The forecast scores are flat though – it’s just not coming together with any quality, and there’s talk of thunderstorms. Honestly, it’s a bit of a write-off.

Thursday and Friday see the swell dropping slightly, still around 5 ft to 6 ft, but the winds stay up and the period remains short at 8 seconds. The combined energy drops into the high 300s, but the wave comments are all “poor surf conditions.” It’s not looking surfable for enjoyment.

The weekend into the following week is worse. Saturday the 12th has a stormy cross-chop, and Sunday the 13th drops to 4 ft with energy fading to 220. By Monday the 14th, we’re back to 5 ft but with a short 7-second period and a fresh breeze. It’s all just messy and unappealing. There’s a solid gap of days here – from the 9th right through to the 16th – where I wouldn’t recommend paddling out.

We get a little bump on Thursday the 17th of September. Swell picks back up to 5 ft, then 5 ft in the afternoon, period stretching to 8 seconds from the east. Combined energy climbs back to 361, which is at least moderate. The wind is still cross-off at 16 mph, but the wave comment is now “marginal” rather than poor. It’s the best of a bad bunch, but still only a 1 out of 10 in the book. If you’re desperate for a paddle, Thursday morning might be the least ugly option, but don’t expect any standouts.

From Friday the 18th onwards, it’s a slow fade. Swell drops to 4 ft, energy slides into the low 200s, then the 100s, and by the 24th of September we’re down to 3 ft and 67 energy – that’s weak, barely breaking. The wind stays moderate, but there’s just no power or quality.

If I had to pick one moment across the whole 16 days, it’s that Thursday the 17th. The swell direction from the east is close to optimum for this reef, and the cross-off wind is offshore enough to keep things clean. But even then, it’s not firing. The rest is a long, flat, windy blank. With this being a fairly consistent spot normally, it’s a frustrating stretch. Forecasts can change though, so keep an eye out.

Rusty.

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