Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Bagasse over the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, I’m gonna be honest with you – this outlook is a bit of a rough one. For the first ten days or so, the surf is just not cooperating. We’ve got a lot of weak, short-period windswell rolling in, mostly from the ENE, and the wind is stuck in a cross-off or cross pattern. That clean-ish look is nice, but with swell heights hovering around 2 ft to 5 ft and periods between 6 and 7 seconds, the waves are just gutless and messy. The combined energy is weak to moderate (41 to 225), and the wave comment across the board is “poor surf conditions.” Honestly, there’s nothing to get excited about. The water is sitting at 84°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year.

Now, let’s talk about the one window that might be worth your time. It’s all the way out on the 13th of August. Thursday morning, the swell jumps up to 7 ft from the E, with a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy spikes to 636 (moderate strength), and the wind is a cross-off from the E at 19 mph. This is the closest we get to a standout. The wave comment is “marginal,” but that’s the best we’re going to see. This is a reef break, so a longer-period swell like this should hold its shape better than at a beach break. Still, 7 ft is getting into expert-only territory. It’s not perfect, but it’s the best on offer.

The 15th and 16th of August see similar sizes – 7 ft to 8 ft – but the wind turns more cross, and the energy is higher (516 to 978). The wave comments are still “marginal” or “poor.” The 8 ft on the 16th is big, but with a short period of 9 seconds and cross-shore winds, it’s going to be lumpy and messy. That’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a clean paddle session.

So, to sum it up: we’ve got a long stretch of flat or poor conditions, then a brief window of bigger, marginal swell that’s best left to the experts. The 13th of August (Thursday morning) is your best bet, but don’t expect perfection. Keep an eye on the forecasts, because a run this quiet rarely lasts forever.

Rusty.

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