Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let’s break down this stretch.

It’s a rough start. The first real surf we see is a bit of a mess, and we’re looking at a 16-day window. The first 4 days are a total blank with no proper recommendation.

First up, Thursday, July 30th, at Bagasse (reef). It’s a reef break, fairly consistent, and exposed to the north. The swell is from the ENE at 6 ft, with a short period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is moderate at 524. Water temp is 84°, which is about average for the time of year. The wind is a cross-off from the East at 19 mph, keeping the surface smooth, but the wave comment calls it marginal. The short period means the waves will be a bit close together and not holding great shape. It’s a paddle, but don’t expect perfection.

Friday, July 31st, is similar with a 6 ft ENE swell, but the wind goes more cross-shore, and there’s a risk of thunderstorms. The energy bumps up to 564, but the conditions are poor. The morning is a no-go. The afternoon cleans up a bit, but it’s still only marginal.

By Saturday, August 1st, the swell drops to 5 ft and then 4 ft, with energy dropping to 244. The wind is light cross-off, which is a plus, but it’s still only marginal. The waves are short period and small. It’s a longboard or a funboard kind of day.

From Sunday, August 2nd, through the rest of the first week, the report is all “poor surf conditions.” The swell drops to under 3 ft, with energy values falling into the double digits. The wind is a constant moderate to fresh breeze. It’s flat and messy.

We do see a pulse come back around the 7th and 8th of August. The swell picks up to 5 ft on Friday the 7th, with moderate energy at 267, but the wind is cross-off and the comment is still “marginal” or “poor.” The period is still short at 7 seconds. It’s a tease.

The best looking option is really the 11th and 12th of August. On Tuesday, August 11th, we see a 6 ft swell from the East with an 8-second period and a combined energy of 407. That’s solid medium-range energy. But the wind is cross-shore, creating a lumpy cross-chop. The next day, Wednesday, August 12th, is our standout. The swell is 6 ft from the East, still 8 seconds, with energy at 398, and the wind turns to a clean cross-off from the East at 12 mph. The comment is “marginal,” but with clean wind and a reasonable-sized swell, this is the best window. It’s a reef break, so it’ll handle the swell better than a beach. If you can only pick one day, this is it. It’s still not a world-class day, but it’s the only one that looks like a proper surf.

After that, the wind gets stronger into the 13th and 14th, with fresh breezes returning, which kills the quality. The swell holds around 5 ft to 5 ft, but the wind is too strong, making it blown out.

So, bottom line: the first week is a washout. The second week has a couple of days where it’s worth a look, especially Wednesday, August 12th. Keep your expectations in check, but there’s a wave to be had.

Rusty.

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