Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s be straight with you. Rusty here, and the outlook for the next couple of weeks is a tough one.

For the first 11 days, from Wednesday, July 15th, through Saturday, July 25th, the surf is dead. The wind is howling out of the east and east-northeast at 12 to 19 mph, mostly cross or cross-off, and the swell is tiny and weak – waves from 1.0m to 1.8m with a period of only 7 to 8 seconds. That’s no good for a reef break like Bagasse. The combined wave energy is mostly weak to moderate (values between 127 and 388), and every single session is marked as “poor surf conditions.” There’s nothing to ride.

The water is 28°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The only day that even comes close to being worth a look is Sunday, July 26th. The morning session shows a 1.4m swell from the east, with an 8-second period, and the wind finally drops to a gentle breeze at 9 mph from the east, going cross-offshore. That’s clean. The combined energy is 264, still moderate, but it’s the best we’ve got. The wave comment says “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” but it’s the only session with a score of 1 out of 10 instead of a zero. It’s not a standout, just the least bad option. The rest of that week stays small (1.1m to 1.5m) with moderate onshore winds, so don’t hold your breath.

If you’re itching for a paddle, Sunday morning the 26th is your only real shot. The break is a reef, so the short period won’t help, but with lighter wind, it might be rideable. Crowds are “sometimes” an issue, but on a day this marginal, you’ll probably have it to yourself. This is a blank run for the area – just one of those periods where the trade winds lock in and kill the swell.

If you’re a kitesurfer, the breezy afternoons with cross-shore winds will be more fun, but for a traditional surf, it’s a waiting game. The second week continues the same story: small swell, moderate winds, and nothing to get excited about.

Rusty out.

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