Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this 16-day window for Bagasse is a tough one. The whole run is plagued by either strong onshore cross-shore winds or just plain messy conditions, and the wave energy is weak to moderate for most of it. There’s a couple of moments that get close, but nothing that’s gonna make you skip work. The biggest problem is the wind; it’s relentless from the east and east-northeast, keeping things lumpy or blown out.

We kick off on Saturday, the 8th of August, with fresh 18.6 mph cross-shore winds and a lumpy 4.6 ft swell from the ENE. The combined energy is only 194 (weak), and the water temp is about average for the time of year. It’s a write-off. Sunday the 9th cleans up a little with a moderate cross-off breeze, but the swell is still short period (7 seconds) and only 4.6 ft to 5.2 ft with energy in the 199-250 range (weak to moderate). It’s surfable but won’t be memorable.

The next week drags on with similar conditions. Monday the 10th through Wednesday the 12th sees moderate cross-off breezes, but the swell stays small (2.0 ft to 4.9 ft) and weak (49 to 178 energy). Thursday the 13th shows a spike, with 6.6 ft to 6.9 ft ENE swell and energy jumping to 434-544 (moderate), but the wind is a fresh 21.7 mph cross-off or cross-shore, making it a messy, lumpy affair. Friday the 14th gets real ugly – a near gale of 31.1 mph cross-shore with 13.1 ft swell and 2950 energy (strong). That’s not for paddle surfing; that’s kite territory, and even then it’s a handful.

The real standout, if you can call it that, is Monday the 17th of August. Sunday the 16th still has lumpy cross-shore winds, but into Monday morning, the wind drops to a whisper at 3.1 mph cross-off. The swell is 5.2 ft from the east with a period of 11 seconds (long period groundswell), and the combined energy is 763 (moderate to strong). The report says “expect very good surf conditions,” and the wind is near glassy. That morning is your best bet. The afternoon stays clean with a gentle 9.3 mph ESE breeze and 4.9 ft swell. But here’s the thing: a long period groundswell like this (11 seconds) can break too straight at a beach break, and Bagasse is a reef setup. That’s actually a good thing – a reef should handle that period well, offering better shape and longer waits between sets. The crowds are listed as “sometimes,” so you might have a few out, but it won’t be packed.

After that, it fades fast. Tuesday the 18th through the 23rd of August the swell drops to 4.6 ft and below, energy falls back to 332 and then down to 47 (weak to weak-moderate), and the wind stays moderate cross-off. It’s poor surf conditions for the rest of the run. Thursday the 20th onward has 3.3 ft and smaller, with barely any push.

So, bottom line: the only window worth paddling out is Monday the 17th of August, morning session. The rest is a bunch of windy, lumpy days with small to moderate swell that just never lines up. The long gap of poor conditions after the 17th is a real bummer – about five days of flat to tiny, clean but weak waves. Keep an eye on the charts, but I’d plan that Monday morning session.

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