Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's get straight into what's happening with the surf at Bagasse over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, looking at the whole 16-day window, this is a pretty tough stretch. The forecast is stacked with “poor surf conditions” most days, and the combined wave energy is weak for the first week. The real issue is the wind – it's almost always blowing from the east or east-northeast, which is a cross-off or cross shore wind for this set-up. It's not terrible, but it's not the clean, glassy perfection you'd be hoping for. The swell is also short-period, mostly 6 to 8 seconds, which means weak, choppy little waves.

The water temperature is 83°F, which is about average for the time of year, so at least it's warm.

For the first week, from Wednesday the 5th through to about Tuesday the 11th, the swell is small, never really getting above 4 ft and the combined energy is mostly in the double digits (like 86 to 155). It's just not worth paddling out for.

There's a gap in decent surf until we get into the second week. Things start to build from Thursday the 13th, with the swell jumping to 6 ft from the ENE and the combined energy hitting 348. The wind is still a cross-off from the east at 22 mph, which is strong, but at least it's blowing clean. By Friday the 14th, the swell is pushing 7 ft to 7 ft from the ENE, with a solid 8-second period and combined energy climbing to 577 then 642. The wind is a fresh 22-25 mph cross-off, so it's going to be a bumpy, windy session, but there's some power. The forecast still calls it “poor surf conditions” and “marginal” on Friday afternoon.

Saturday the 15th sees the biggest swell of the run, hitting 8 ft from the ENE, with combined energy up to 969. That's moderate wave energy. But the wind switches to a cross shore, blowing at 19-22 mph, which will chop things up. That size is only for experienced surfers, and the conditions are looking rough.

Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th still have some size, around 6 ft to 7 ft, but the wind is cross-off and cross-shore, and the surf is still rated as poor or marginal. The best chance for a surfable wave might be on Monday the 17th, when the swell is 6 ft to 6 ft from the ENE, the wind is a cross-off from the ESE at 12-16 mph, and the combined energy is 572 to 523. It's still a long shot, but it's the cleanest of the bunch.

After that, the swell drops off again through the 18th, 19th, and 20th, back to 4 ft to 4 ft with weak energy and persistent cross-off winds.

So, if I'm calling a standout, it's got to be Monday morning, August 17th, at Bagasse. The swell is 6 ft from the ENE, the wind is a cross-off from the ESE at 12 mph, and the combined energy is 572. It's the cleanest window we get, and the size is solid for an intermediate. Don't expect perfection, but it's the best we've got for a paddle. The crowds are a “sometimes” factor here, so you might have some company.

This spot is a reef break, so it can handle the longer-period swell better than a beach break, but with an 8-second period, it's not a long groundswell anyway.

Overall, it's a pretty bleak outlook. A lot of days with no recommendation at all. If you're desperate, the 17th is your best bet, but keep your expectations low. The forecast can always change, but right now, it's a tough watch.

Rusty.

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