Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for Bagasse over the next couple of weeks. Honestly, it’s a pretty bleak picture for a while. We’ve got a long dry spell to start, so don’t rush to wax up.

This stretch starts with a real flat patch. From Tuesday the 1st of September, right through until late in the first week, it’s all small, weak, and messy. The swell hangs around 2 ft to 4 ft from the east, and the period is short – only 7 to 8 seconds. That’s windswell, not groundswell, so expect gutless, crumbly waves. The combined energy is weak, barely cracking 160 (162) on the best days. Winds are cross or cross-off from the ENE, so it’s not blown out, but there’s just nothing to ride. The water temp is about average for this time of year.

A small window of possibility pops up on Sunday the 6th of September. The morning sees a slight bump to 4 ft from the east with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy climbs to 200 – finally some moderate energy. It’s still marginal, with clean conditions from a cross-off ESE breeze, but you’d be scratching for anything decent. The afternoon gets a bit more push at 4 ft (253 combined energy), but the wind picks up to 25 km/h from the east, making it a bit lumpy.

Now, the standout window comes between the 9th and the 10th of September. This is where it gets interesting. On Wednesday the 9th, the swell jumps to 6 ft from the east, period still short at 8 seconds, but the combined energy hits 528 – that’s strong energy. The wind is a fresh 35 km/h from the east, cross-off, so it’ll be clean but blown out for the morning. Thursday the 10th is the pick: 7 ft from the east, period 8 seconds, and a combined energy of 624 (very strong). Winds ease to 25 km/h, still cross-off, making for cleaner conditions. That 7 ft is getting into expert-only territory, and with a short period at a reef break, it’ll be steep and punchy. But for the crew who know what they’re doing, that Thursday afternoon (with an energy of 536) looks like the best of the whole run.

After that, it fades. From Friday the 11th, the swell drops back to 4 ft to 5 ft, all from the east-northeast, with the same short period. The combined energy falls back to the 200-300 range. Winds stay moderate from the east, and conditions are generally clean but with that cross-chop showing up. By the 15th and 16th, it’s tiny again – 1.0 ft on the 16th, with only 14 combined energy. The whole second week is a washout for any serious surfing.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a write-off. The best shot is Thursday the 10th of September with 7 ft east swell and manageable winds, but it’s only for the experienced crowd. For everyone else, keep your board in the car and wait for the next system.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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