Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the table for this stretch of coast.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a bit of a flat spell to kick things off. The first few days from Thursday the 2nd through to Sunday the 5th are pretty much a write-off. The swell is there, about 4ft to 5ft from the east, but it's poor quality with a short period of 8 seconds and a messy cross-shore wind ruining any chance of a clean wave. Wave energy is moderate, sitting between 191 and 386, but it’s not translating into anything rideable. You’re better off staying home.

Things start to look a little more promising from Monday the 6th onwards, but only just. The swell bumps up, holding around 6ft to 7ft from the east-northeast, and the wind swings into a cleaner cross-offshore direction. A glimmer of hope appears on Wednesday the 8th morning, with swell hitting 6ft and wave energy jumping to 542. That’s moderate-to-strong energy, but it’s still just marginal. The real standout window looks to be Thursday the 9th through Saturday the 11th. On Thursday the 9th, the swell is a solid 7ft from the east with a cross-off breeze, clean conditions, and wave energy hitting 625. That's our first decent look. Friday the 10th morning is the best on offer: the swell pushes up to 7ft from the east-northeast, energy cranks up to 733, and winds are still cross-off. The period is only 8 seconds, so it’s not a long-period groundswell, but the combination of size and clean conditions makes it the pick of the forecast. Saturday the 11th morning is similar with 7ft, but winds switch to a cross-stroke in the afternoon, which will chop things up.

For the second week, from Sunday the 12th onward, the swell slowly backs off. It hovers around 5ft to 6ft from the east-northeast, with cross-off winds keeping it clean. Wave energy drops into the moderate range, from 299 to 381. Not terrible, but nothing to get excited about. The last few days, Thursday the 16th to Friday the 17th, fade back to 5ft and then 4ft with energy dropping to 170, and that’s pretty much it.

So, if you’re chasing something, the early morning of Friday the 10th is the standout. Bagasse is a reef break, exposed to the east-northeast swell. It rates as fairly consistent and can handle a bit of size. With the swell at 7ft, that’s getting into expert territory, so know your limits. The cross-off wind will make it clean, but be aware that this spot can get crowded sometimes, so you won’t be alone.

Water temp at the start is a balmy 83°F, pretty much average for the time of year, so no need for a thick suit.

It’s not a classic run, but that Friday the 10th window has some punch.

Rusty.

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