Surf Forecasts:
Bagasse surf forecast from 18 Jul 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 18 Jul, 11PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 8s period, ENE swell with 427 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Bagasse this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Bagasse in the next 16 days are 1.9m 8s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 18) at 11PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.0m 6s period and expected on Friday (Jul 24) at 2AM.
| Wave Type | Time (AST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 11PM (Sat 18th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Bagasse over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – this forecast is a tough one to call. The whole 16-day window is a real mixed bag. We’ve got a consistent pulse of chest-high swell, but the wind is the enemy for most of it. The water temperature is sitting at 83°, which is bang on average for this time of year – nothing out of the ordinary there.
The first real chance to get wet isn't until Monday the 20th of July, and even then it’s just a "marginal" call. The real issue is that the wind is just too strong and in the wrong direction for most of the run. The swell energy is hanging around the 100 to 400 range (moderate), but it's all being chopped up.
Let’s break it down. The swell builds from the 18th, but it’s messy. Friday the 17th is a write-off with 19 mph cross-shore wind ruining the 5 ft easterly bump. Saturday and Sunday the 18th and 19th see the swell hit 6 ft, but the wind is still a fresh breeze, cross or cross-off, and the wave comment is “poor surf conditions.” The period is a short 7-8 seconds, so no real power in the line.
Monday the 20th of July is the one you want to circle. It’s not a classic, but it’s the only window in the first week that’s tagged as “marginal,” not “poor.” The morning session at Bagasse is the pick. We’re looking at a 5 ft swell from the ENE, with a 16 mph cross-offshore breeze. The wind is clean, and the energy is moderate (282). It’s a reef break that’s fairly consistent, and it works best with a northerly swell direction. The ENE swell is a little off-angle, but it’s the cleanest you’ll see it. The period is still short at 8 seconds, so don’t expect bombs, but it’ll be rideable. After that, it’s back to cross-chop and poor conditions for the rest of the week.
The second week, from the 25th of July onward, is a repeat of the same story. The swell keeps coming, mostly 5 ft to 6 ft, but the wind is relentless. The 25th and 26th get a "marginal" tag again, but the wind is still moderate. The 30th and 31st have a bigger swell push (6 ft) but the wind is a fresh 22 mph again. There’s a slight uptick on the morning of the 31st of July, with a 6 ft ENE swell and a clean cross-off breeze at 16 mph. That’s your other possible session, but it’s a long way out and the confidence is low.
Honestly, this is a period where you’ll be watching the forecast more than you’ll be surfing. The swell is there, but the wind is just not playing ball. Keep an eye on the 20th and the 31st for a chance at a clean, if not perfect, wave.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Sat night. Warm (max 29°C on Mon afternoon, min 26°C on Sat night). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Warm (max 28°C on Tue morning, min 26°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 7 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 7 | ENE 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | NE 8 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 327 | 416 | 416 | 427 | 364 | 316 | 308 | 232 | 196 | 140 | 91 | 83 | 63 | 76 | 72 | 88 | 104 | 71 | 28 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 5:52AM0.41m | 7:14PM0.38m | 6:48AM0.36m | 7:42PM0.39m | 7:51AM0.30m | 8:11PM0.40m | 9:18AM0.26m | 8:40PM0.40m | 9:12PM0.39m | 9:51PM0.39m | |||||||||
Low Tide | 11:55PM0.25m | 12:46PM0.13m | 1:18AM0.23m | 1:13PM0.18m | 2:40AM0.20m | 1:32PM0.21m | 3:56AM0.17m | 1:31PM0.24m | 5:04AM0.14m | 6:04AM0.11m | |||||||||
 |  | |  | | | | | | | | |  | | | | |  |  | |
 | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:45 | — | — |
 | 6:37 | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:37 | — | — | 6:37 | — |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 |
Temp °C | 27 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 27 |
Feels °C | 26 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 28 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNE 9 | NNE 8 | NNE 8 | NE 10 | NE 8 | NE 9 | NNE 9 | NNE 9 | NE 8 | ENE 7 | NE 8 | NNE 8 | NNE 6 | NNE 8 | NE 7 | NE 8 | NE 8 | NNE 8 | NE 8 |
| kJ | 15 | 13 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 140 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 13 | 31 | 30 | 37 | 28 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNE 10 | NE 9 | NNE 8 | NE 8 | N 11 | N 10 | N 9 | N 8 | NNE 9 | NNE 8 | ENE 7 | NNE 8 | NNE 8 | NE 10 | SE 4 | — | — | E 12 | SE 8 |
| kJ | 9 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 3 | 11 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 10 | E 9 | SE 4 | SE 4 | SE 4 | SE 4 | NNE 9 | SE 4 | — | NE 8 | NNE 8 | ENE 7 | — | S 5 | E 7 | ENE 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 |
| kJ | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | — | 3 | 6 | 5 | — | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ENE 7 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | ENE 8 | — | ENE 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 6 |
| kJ | 327 | 416 | 416 | 427 | 364 | 316 | 308 | 232 | 196 | — | 91 | 83 | 63 | 76 | 72 | 88 | 104 | 71 | 69 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 719 | 787 | 178 | 319 | 787 | 178 | 517 | 787 | 178 | 178 | 239 | 270 | 551 | 380 | 380 | 319 | 270 | 178 | 270 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Martinique | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Martinique | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Bagasse Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Bagasse provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Bagasse can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Bagasse surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Bagasse) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Bagasse may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Bagasse is 24 km (15 miles) from Sainte-Marie. If you plan a holiday in Martinique, look for hotels and other accommodation in Sainte-Marie. Sainte-Marie has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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