Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright crew, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s on the radar for the next couple of weeks. To be straight with you, the first part of this run is a total dud. We're looking at a long stretch of weak, small surf that just won't get going. There's a gap of several days at the start where you're not going to want to bother.

For the 7th through the 10th, it's just junk. We're talking waves around 3ft on the Friday, dropping up and down but never having any power. The energy is weak, in the 150 to 200 range. The winds are cross-off, so it’s clean, but the swell period is short, around 7 seconds, and everything is closing out. It’s tiny, weak, and just kind of sad.

The 11th and 12th are more of the same. The morning of the 11th is flat, a tiny 1ft bump. The 12th comes up a bit to around 4ft, but with the same weak energy, reading in the 150 to 170 range. There's just nothing to work with here. It’s still poor surf conditions across the board.

Then things get interesting. The 13th brings a jump in size. Thursday the 13th sees waves pushing 6 to 7ft, and the energy jumps to over 400. But the quality is still poor, and with a short period, it’s going to be a lumpy mess. The winds pick up to a fresh breeze, but it’s cross-off, keeping it a bit cleaner. Then the 14th really pulls the trigger. Friday the 14th has the swell reaching 10ft, with energy readings going over 1000. It’s big, but it’s also raw power with a short period and questionable tides. It’s a heavy, grinding day, not for anyone without a lot of experience. This is the big one of the window, but it's not going to be user-friendly.

Saturday the 15th and Sunday morning the 16th hold some size, with waves in the 7 to 8ft range, but the energy starts to drop and the quality is still marginal. The wind stays a fresh cross-off, but it’s just a lot of water moving with no good shape. Sunday afternoon things start to turn, the wind goes cross-shore, and the surface gets lumpy.

From the 17th, it's a steady decline. The swell backs off slowly, but the quality never really comes back. The 17th has some storm chances and the morning is messy, with the wind going onshore and lumpy. The afternoons are a bit better but still just marginal. The 18th settles into the 5-6ft range, still with moderate cross-off winds and a bit better period, but it still reads as marginal. As we move through the next few days, from the 19th to the 22nd, the size stays around 5ft but the energy drains away, dropping back into the 260-400 range. The wind stays cross-off and clean, but the waves just lack any punch or shape. It’s a long, boring fade.

So, where does that leave us? The standout is definitely that big pulse on the 13th through the 15th. It’s the only time we see serious size and power. But, it’s short-period, and the conditions are going to be sloppy. It’s a day for big-wave chargers and gluttons for punishment. For everyone else, this is a week to catch up on other things. The wave quality just isn't there for a good session.

Keep your head up, though. A stretch like this doesn’t usually last forever.

Rusty

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