Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, checkin’ in with a look at the next couple of weeks for our little stretch of coast. We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag, but there’s a real gem hiding in there if you’re patient and can handle a bit of grunt.

The start of the period is a write-off, I’m not gonna lie. We’ve got a solid wall of wind and messy, lumpy conditions through the end of the first week and into the weekend. From Wednesday the 12th right through to Saturday the 15th, it’s a no-go. Cross-shore breezes, building swell but with terrible shape, and the combined energy is climbing from a moderate 241 up to a messy 1171 by Saturday afternoon. Save your energy.

But then, Sunday the 16th rolls around and things change in a big way. That’s our standout. Sunday morning at Bagasse, the wind swings offshore out of the SSE at a gentle 9.3 mph. That’s glassy territory folks. The swell is a solid 8.2 ft out of the ENE with a 10-second period, pumping up a combined energy of 1585 – that’s strong, serious wave energy. This is not for the faint-hearted. Over 8 ft means experts only, and with that kind of grunt, be sure your gear’s right. It’s a reef break, and those are clean conditions. The water’s a warm 83.7°F, which is about average for this time of year, so nothin’ to worry about on that front. Sunday arvo still looks good with a 9.8 ft swell, but a bit more wind on it, so the morning is your window.

After that peak, the surf settles down and the wind turns ugly again. Monday the 17th through Saturday the 23rd is mostly a write-off with middling cross-off and cross breezes. The swell drops back to 3.3-5.2 ft, but with short 6-8 second periods, it’s just weak and wonky. Energy levels drop well below 300. One to skip.

There is a second, more distant glimpse of hope further out. Round about Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th, things look like they could clean up again. Monday the 24th afternoon has a light 6.2 mph cross-off breeze with a 5.2 ft ENE swell. Tuesday morning the 25th sees a 4.9 ft swell and light SE wind, which is cross-off and clean. This is promising for an intermediate session, but it’s a long way off, so we’ll have to keep an eye on it. Crowds are “sometimes” a thing at Bagasse, so on those clean days, you might have some company.

So, to sum it up: if you’re a solid surfer, your one and only true call is the Sunday the 16th morning. That’s the standout. The rest is either messy, weak, or too far out to bank on. But forecasts can change, and this spot is fairly consistent, so don’t write it off completely just yet.

Stay safe, and keep an eye on the horizon.

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