Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

Straight up, the outlook is a bit of a grind. We’ve got a solid east-northeast tradewind pattern locked in, and it’s blowing fresh across the region. The swell is hanging around the 5 to 7 ft mark, but the wind is the story here – it’s cross or cross-offshore for most of the period, which is robbing the waves of any real quality. The water temp is sitting at a pretty normal 82.6°F for this time of year, so at least you won't need a thick suit.

The only real option on the table is Bagasse, a reef setup that's fairly consistent. The combined wave energy is moderate (401) on Tuesday morning, but the wind is a stiff 15.5 mph from the east, making it a cross-offshore breeze. The swell is 5.6 ft from the ENE with a short period of 8 seconds. This is not a standout session – the score is a zero, and the conditions are poor. The same story rolls through Wednesday and Thursday, with the swell bumping up to 6.9 ft and the wind freshening to 18.6 mph. The wave energy climbs into the 600s (635, 644), but it’s still short-period, wind-affected stuff. The cross-off wind does keep the surface tidy, but the waves are lumpy and lack any real shape.

This pattern doesn't let up. Through the rest of the first week and into the second, we’re looking at the same tradewind swell, 4.9 to 5.9 ft, with the wind holding steady at 12.4 to 18.6 mph. The wave energy drops from moderate (300-400) down to weak (200-300) by the end of the second week. There are no real standout days. The scores are consistently a 0 or a 1, meaning marginal or poor surf. The period is short, between 7 and 8 seconds, so it’s all windswell, no real grunt.

For a spot like Bagasse, which is a reef, a short period swell like this isn't ideal. It needs a longer period groundswell to really wrap in and offer quality waves. With the wind never truly dropping to glassy or light offshore, the surf is going to be a battle. Honestly, with the combination of moderate swell, poor quality, and consistent wind, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for anyone who isn't desperate.

There are no real standouts in this 16-day window. It’s a long, blank run of average to poor conditions. If you absolutely have to paddle out, the best window might be the mornings when the wind is slightly lighter and cross-offshore, like on the 6th of July when the swell is 4.9 ft, but even then, it’s marginal. Hang tight, surfers. Forecasts can change, but this one’s a tough watch.

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