Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks. Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s brewing for Bagasse.

The outlook for Bagasse is a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got some swell on the way, but the conditions are gonna be a real challenge for most of the next 16 days. The water temperature is sitting at 83°F, which is about normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first real shot of surf arrives on Tuesday, July 28th. We’re looking at a 4ft to 4ft ENE swell, with a period of 8 seconds. The wind is a cross-off from the east at 12 mph, which should keep the surface clean. The combined energy is moderate, reading 209. It’s not going to be epic, but it’s a start. The data calls it marginal, so don’t expect perfection.

Wednesday, July 29th, sees a bump in size. The swell picks up to 7ft to 7ft, still from the ENE with that 8-second period. The wind stays cross-off from the east, but it’s bumping up to 19 mph. The energy jumps into the moderate range with a reading of 502. This is getting bigger, but that wind is fresh, and again, it’s flagged as marginal. It’s not a clean, easy day.

Thursday, July 30th, is the peak of this first pulse. The swell hits 7ft from the ENE, with an 8-second period and a steady 19-22 mph cross-off wind. The energy is high, with a reading of 744. Look, 7ft with that wind is a handful. It’s doable for an experienced surfer, but it’s not what I’d call a standout. The data still calls it marginal.

After that, the swell slowly drops through the end of July and into August. From Friday, July 31st, through to Tuesday, August 5th, the conditions are repeatedly called "poor". The swell hangs around 4ft to 5ft, but the wind is consistently cross-off or cross-shore, and the energy drops. There’s a real gap here with no good surf on offer for about 5 days.

We get a tiny flicker of hope on Thursday, August 6th, in the afternoon. The swell bumps back up to 5ft from the ENE, with a 7-second period and a 16 mph cross-off wind. The energy reading is 214. It’s called marginal, but the wind is clean. It’s the best-looking window in the second week, but it’s still a gamble.

From Friday, August 7th, all the way through to Wednesday, August 12th, it’s back to "poor" conditions. The swell is mostly 4ft to 5ft, but the wind stays fresh to strong, and the cross-shore chop makes it messy. The combined energy readings are all in the low to moderate range, but the quality just isn’t there.

So, to be honest, the standout day in this whole forecast is Thursday, July 30th. It’s got the biggest swell at 7ft from the ENE, and while the wind is strong, it’s a clean cross-off. The combined energy is moderate (744). The break is a reef, so it’ll handle the size, but that 7ft is getting into expert territory. It’s the best we’ve got, but it’s not a picture-perfect day.

Rusty.

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