Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s cookin’ at Bagasse.

This forecast is a bit of a heartbreaker, to be honest. We’ve got a long, dry spell of pretty average to poor conditions stretchin’ out for the next week and a half. The first real chance to get your feet wet doesn’t show up until Monday the 17th, and even then, it’s a short-lived window. Before that, we’re lookin’ at a lot of onshore and cross-off winds with a messy, lumpy ocean.

The standout, and really the only true highlight in this 16-day outlook, is Monday, August 17th. Early morning, we’ve got a light offshore breeze from the S at 6 mph, and by the afternoon it’s glassin’ off even more. The swell will be a solid 6 ft to 6 ft from the ENE, with a moderate period around 10 seconds, and the combined energy is strong – hitting 752 (moderate to strong energy). This is a reef break, so that longer-period energy should wrap in nicely, giving us some well-shaped, clean lines. The water’s sittin’ at 84°F, which is about average for this time of year, so no need for a thick suit.

Important: On the 17th, the wind turns light offshore and the surf cleans right up. That’s your best shot. It’s an intermediate-level wave, so if you’re just gettin’ into it, the 6 ft size might feel a bit much. And watch out, crowds are listed as "sometimes," so you might have some company at the takeoff zone.

Before that Monday, the 14th and 15th have some serious size – 10 ft on Friday and 8 ft on Saturday – but the wind is howlin’ from the ENE at 22-25 mph, makin’ it a messy, cross-shore chop. That kind of power and wind is more for the kite crew than a paddle surfer. The energy is huge, over 1000, but the quality is just not there.

After that brief window on the 17th, it all fades again. Tuesday the 18th still has some waist-chest high leftovers, but the wind goes cross-off and the energy drops. By the 19th, it’s back to poor conditions, and we’re basically in a flat, windy pattern through to the end of the forecast on August 24th. There’s a gap of about 5 days from the 19th to the 24th with nothing worth paddlin’ out for.

So, mark your calendar for Monday the 17th. That’s the one to chase.

Stay salty,
Rusty

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