Bagasse Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at the outlook for Bagasse, a reef break that’s gonna be our main focus for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be honest with you – the first week is a bit of a grind. We’ve got a big gap of nothing good from the start, with the first real chance to paddle out not showing up until Wednesday the 29th of July. The beginning of the week is all small, weak, and messy. On Monday the 27th, we’re looking at a tiny 3ft swell from the ENE with a short 8-second period, and a cross-shore wind that’s just chopping it all up. The combined energy is weak (119), and it’s just poor. Tuesday the 28th isn’t much better – the swell nudges up to 4ft but the period is still a raw 7 seconds, and while the wind is cleaning up to a cross-off, the surf quality is still poor. The energy is still moderate-low (164).

Now, things start to get interesting on Wednesday the 29th of July. The swell jumps to a solid 7ft from the ENE, with that same 8-second period, but the wind is a clean cross-off from the east at 22 mph. The waves are gonna be a bit chunky and raw, but the combined energy is now moderate (547). This is the first day we get a marginal call, and it’s a big step up from the nothing we had. Thursday the 30th holds similar size, around 7ft to 7ft, and that energy stays strong (672). The wind is still a clean cross-off, but at 22 mph, it’s a fresh breeze. This is the standout window for the first week. Friday the 31st drops a little, to 6ft, with the energy dropping to 480, and the wind is still cross-off, but it’s back to "poor" conditions for the morning session. The afternoon is marginal again.

The weekend into early August sees the swell slowly fade. Saturday the 1st and Sunday the 2nd have waves around 4ft to 5ft, with clean cross-off winds, but the energy is low (264 dropping to 167). It’s rideable, but nothing to get excited about. The second week from Monday the 3rd of August onward is a real letdown. Swell drops to 4ft or less, with periods of 7 seconds or even 6 seconds. The combined energy falls into the weak range (down to 39 on the 5th). The winds are light and often cross-off, keeping it clean, but there’s just not enough juice in the water to make it worthwhile. The best of the second week is a tiny bump on the 7th and 8th of August, where the swell tries to push to 5ft-5ft with an 8-second period and moderate energy (around 300), but it’s still described as "marginal" or "poor". The 8th is the best of that late run, but it’s a far cry from the earlier days.

If you’re looking for the true standout, it’s definitely Wednesday the 29th of July through Thursday the 30th of July. That’s when we’ve got the most size and the cleanest conditions. The swell is coming from the ENE, which is a cross-off direction for this spot, and it’s an exposed reef, so it’ll pick up every bit of that energy. The water temp is about average for the time of year, but when you’re looking at waves over 7ft, you need to be comfortable – this is not beginner territory. The crowds are listed as "sometimes" here, so you might get a few others out, but with this quality, it’ll be worth it.

The rest of the two weeks is a waiting game. The forecast confidence is decent for the first few days, but the long-range stuff is a bit of a teaser. Stick to the Wednesday and Thursday of the first week, and you’ll score.

- Rusty

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