Empty Lots Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's look at what’s on the table for Empty Lots.

First off, it’s a reef setup, exposed to the swell, and it likes the swell from the SSE. The water is sitting at about 27°, which is spot on average for this time of year, so nothing to write home about there.

Honestly, the outlook for the next 16 days is pretty grim, especially for a paddle surfer. The vast majority of the forecast is plagued by cross-shore winds that are going to leave the surface lumpy and chopped up. There are a lot of "poor surf conditions" flags in this data, so I’ll cut to the chase: this is not a good run for waves at Empty Lots.

The entire first week, from Thursday the 10th right through to Monday the 21st, is a write-off. The wave heights rarely get above 3 ft, the periods are all over the place but the wind never seems to cooperate, and the combined energy is a constant moderate hum (between 157 and 1214), but it's never clean. The best you could hope for in that first stretch is a few marginal windows on Saturday the 12th or Sunday the 13th with tiny 2 ft to 2 ft SSW swell and a lighter breeze, but even then it’s cross-shore or cross-onshore. Not worth getting wet for.

We do see a bit of a change around Thursday the 17th and into the second week. The swell builds, with a peak on Thursday morning the 17th showing 5 ft of short-period 8-second E swell, but the wind is still a nasty cross-shore at 35 km/h. That's a terrible combination for Empty Lots; that short-period, onshore-affected swell will be a mess. The energy climbs up there (1214 that morning), but the quality is just not there for surfing.

The only flicker of hope comes right at the tail end of the outlook. On Wednesday the 23rd of September, we get 5 ft of E swell with a 12-second period (decent groundswell in there) and the combined energy is strong (1061-1128). Even then, the wind is a gentle cross-onshore (15 km/h), so it’s going to be fairly choppy, but it’s the best-looking size of the whole run. Then on Thursday the 24th, the wind actually flips to straight onshore (SSE at 10 km/h) which is a big improvement for this break, with 3-4 ft of clean, long-period SSW swell (17-18 seconds) and very strong energy (1143-1209). That Thursday is the standout. If you’re going to pick a session in this entire 16-day window, Thursday the 24th afternoon is your best bet. The wind will be light and the swell will have proper push, but remember, that long period stuff can break a bit straight on a beach, but at this reef it should line up nicely. It’s marginal but the best of a bad bunch.

Take it from Rusty: this is a long, blank run up ahead, so don't hold your breath for anything epic. Thursday the 24th is the one to keep an eye on.

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