El Canal Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming up in our local waters.

Straight up, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – this forecast is a real grind. We’re talking about a long, dry spell with barely a whisper of decent surf for the next week and a half. The whole 16-day window is basically a write-off for proper waves. From Monday the 24th of August right through to around the 30th, it’s all poor surf conditions with weak, short-period windswell and a constant cross-shore wind. The swell energy is pretty anemic, barely cracking 200 (combined energy of all swells directed here) most days, and the wave heights are just dribbly little 3 ft to 4 ft things with a period of 5 to 8 seconds. It’s messy, it’s choppy, and not worth paddling out for.

The first real glimmer of something resembling a groundswell arrives on Monday the 31st of August. The morning shows a 3 ft swell from the east, but with a period of 15 seconds – that’s a proper long-period groundswell. The energy ramps up to 565 (combined energy of all swells directed here), which is moderate. But, and it’s a big but, the wind is still a moderate cross-shore from the east, and the conditions are only described as “marginal.” The long period groundswell tends to break a bit straight at beach breaks, but El Canal is a reef, so it should handle that energy better. Still, the persistent cross-shore wind is going to keep things from being clean.

The best chance we see in the whole outlook is a brief window around Tuesday the 1st of September and into Wednesday the 2nd. The swell picks up a bit, with a 6 ft to 6 ft east-northeast swell (12-second period) on Tuesday morning and afternoon, pushing the combined energy close to 1000 (989-998). That’s the biggest energy we’ll see. But it’s still “marginal” due to the wind. Wednesday morning the 2nd looks like the closest we get to a clean session – the wind drops to a light breeze from the east-northeast, with a small cross-chop. The swell is 5 ft from the east-northeast at 12 seconds, with moderate energy (705). That’s the standout, but it’s still only a 2/10 score. After that, it’s back to fading into tiny, weak surf and poor conditions through the 8th of September.

For El Canal, a reef break that’s fairly consistent and exposed to easterly swells, the optimum swell direction is from the north. We’re seeing some east and east-northeast swells, which are not the best angle. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing special.

So, honestly, there’s no real stand-out, get-in-the-car session here. The whole stretch is a bust. If you’re desperate, Wednesday morning the 2nd of September might give you a few grumpy, wind-affected waves, but don’t get your hopes up. The rest of the time, it’s a board on the beach kind of forecast. Better luck next time.

Rusty.

Read more