Donuts Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let’s look at what we’ve got for Donuts over the next couple of weeks. Straight up, I gotta be honest with you – this is a tough stretch. We’re looking at a long, dry run of poor conditions, and it’s going to take a while before anything even gets close to being rideable.

The first solid week is basically a write-off. From Saturday the 18th right through to the morning of Sunday the 26th, every session is flagged as poor. The swell is hanging in there – mostly around 3ft to 4ft from the southwest – but the problem is the wind. It’s almost constantly onshore or cross-onshore from the west or northwest. That kills any chance of a clean wave at a sheltered reef like this. Even though the wind is light, the direction is just wrong. The water is much warmer than normal for this time of year, sitting at 71°F with a 4°F anomaly, but that’s small comfort when you’re staring at chopped-out junk. The combined swell energy is moderate to strong, hitting the 400 to 900 range, but without clean conditions, that energy is wasted. You’d be better off on a kite than a paddle board right now.

Now, there is a small window that shows a tiny bit of life. On Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th, we finally see the scores bump up to a 1 or a 2, with "marginal" comments. The swell hangs around 3ft to 4ft from the SW, and the wind goes mostly light and offshore from the WNW to SW. That offshore wind is the key. The combined energy jumps up, hitting 1074 and then 1273 – solid moderate to strong energy. But this is an inconsistent reef, so even when it’s on, you might wait a while between sets. Still, these two days are the best on offer for the whole forecast.

The last couple of days of July, the 30th and 31st, also show some marginal hope. The swell gets a bit bigger, up to 4ft to 6ft from the SSW, with light offshore winds. That 6ft on Friday the 31st afternoon is starting to push past the beginner-friendly zone, but for an intermediate crew with a long-period swell (14-15 seconds), it could offer some proper shape, especially as this is a reef break. But remember, it’s inconsistent, so don’t expect a circus.

Come the 1st and 2nd of August, the energy drops right off. We’re down to 2ft to 5ft and the cross-onshore wind comes back, with a shorter period (11-13 seconds). The combined energy tanks to 144-765, weak to moderate, and the conditions are just poor again.

So the real takeaway? The standout, such as it is, will be Tuesday the 28th of July into the afternoon. You get 4ft of SW groundswell with 17-second periods and light offshore wind. That’s the one to try and line up. The rest of this outlook is a waiting game.

Keep your eyes on the horizon. Forecasts change.

– Rusty

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