Donuts Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for the next sixteen days.

Well, I gotta be straight with you – it’s a rough stretch ahead. The long-range picture is pretty grim, with no real standouts in the whole sixteen-day window. We’re looking at a long, quiet run with barely a ripple worth paddling for. The first real chance of anything even close to surfable doesn’t show up until Saturday the 5th, and even then, it’s marginal.

The only spot in the game is Donuts (reef, sheltered). The swell direction is coming from the SSW, which is a bit off from Donuts’ optimum W direction, so it’s not catching the energy cleanly. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so nothing weird there.

Let’s run through it. Wednesday the 2nd and Thursday the 3rd are a complete write-off – poor conditions, cross-onshore winds, and messy, choppy water. Friday the 4th is the same story, just with a bit more height but still poor quality.

Now, Saturday the 5th is where we finally see a pulse. The combined swell energy lifts to 1129 (moderate) early and 1045 (moderate) later, with a 4 ft to 4 ft S swell. The period is 13-14 seconds – a decent groundswell, but the wind is cross-on, keeping it choppy and weak. The score is still low, so it’s a ‘maybe’ session for the die-hards only.

Sunday the 6th brings a bit more size, 6 ft to 7 ft, and energy climbs to 1190-1671, but the wind remains cross-on and cross-shore, making it a messy, bumpy affair. The wave comment says “marginal” – not a day to get excited about.

Monday the 7th is the best of a bad bunch. The swell hits 8 ft with a combined energy of 2342 (strong). The wind is a light cross-off from the NNE, which cleans things up nicely. That’s your best window right there, but remember, 8 ft is getting into expert territory at a reef break. The crowd profile says “sometimes,” so you might have a few others with the same idea, but it won’t be packed. The period is 14 seconds, which is a nice long groundswell, but at a reef it should hold up well.

After that, it’s a long, slow fade. From Tuesday the 8th right through to Wednesday the 16th, the swell drops off to 5 ft and then steadily down to 1 ft. The combined energy drops from 584 (weak) down to 150 (weak) or less. The wind stays cross-on or onshore, with poor to marginal conditions. The period jumps up to 23 seconds on the 17th, but with only 1 ft of swell, it’s a total non-event – just a long-period ripple.

So, the honest truth: there’s nothing to get excited about. The only faint glimmer is Monday the 7th at Donuts, if you’re an experienced surfer and don’t mind a bit of crowd. For everyone else, it’s a long, blank spell. This is one of those stretches where the forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a tough run.

Rusty.

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