Donuts Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’ve got a real honest look at what’s coming up for Donuts over the next 16 days.

First up, I’ve got to be straight with you – the outlook for Donuts is pretty grim right through the whole period. The forecast shows a long stretch of small, weak swell, mostly from the SW to SSW, with wave heights barely cracking 3 ft to 4 ft. The combined energy of all swells is moderate, hitting 758 (moderate) on the 29th, but it quickly drops off to weak energy, with values like 642, 426, and then down to two-digit and low three-digit numbers for most of the run. The swell period is a mixed bag, with some longer-period groundswell showing up, like 16 seconds on the 29th and even 19 seconds early on the 7th of August, but the poor surf quality just doesn’t let up.

The winds are a real letdown. Most days are cross-on, with a light breeze from the SW or WSW – that’s onshore, ripping the surface up. The water temperature is a standout at 73°F, which is a massive 6°F warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s very unusual. But warm water doesn’t fix the mess.

The only flicker of hope is a couple of days where the wind goes offshore, like Wednesday afternoon July 29th with a 9 mph W wind, and Thursday morning July 30th with a 6 mph WNW wind, and again on the 7th and 8th of August. The swell is small, though – around 2 ft to 4 ft – and the period is long (15-19 seconds), which is a good sign for wave shape, but at a reef break like Donuts, it might be a bit too straight for a punchy ride. Donuts is inconsistent, so even when it’s working, you’re waiting around. When it does line up, the wind is offshore, meaning clean glassy faces, but the waves are small and the energy is marginal.

If you’re a beginner, the swell is mostly under 5 ft, so it’s not too big, but the quality is so poor it’s not worth the effort. For experts, the long period could offer a fast, hollow section if the tide lines up, but it’s a gamble. Honestly, the setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer on many of these days, especially the afternoons with cross-on breeze.

There’s a real gap here – the first week is a write-off, and the second week doesn’t improve. The forecast is reliable for the near term, and it’s just not good. The best on offer is probably the morning of July 30th, with 4 ft of SW swell, a 15-second period, and a light offshore breeze. It’s a one-star out of ten, but it’s the best of a bad bunch. The crowds at Donuts can be a problem sometimes, but with this lack of quality, you’ll likely have it to yourself. Donuts is a reef, so it needs a specific swell direction, and the optimum is W, but the forecast is SW to SSW, which is off its game.

After that, it’s a dry spell until the 7th of August, where the long-period groundswell (19 seconds) from the SSW pops up, but the wave height is only 2 ft, and the combined energy is 386 (moderate). The wind is offshore again, but it’s a gentle breeze, and the surf conditions are still reported as poor. The period is very long, so it’s risky for the reef – it might break too straight.

Overall, I’d say save your energy. The 16-day window is a blank run for quality surf. It’s normal for a spot like this, which is inconsistent, to have a lean spell. Forecasts can change, but for now, it’s a sit-and-wait situation.

Rusty.

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