Caballos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m gonna level with you – this 16-day window for Caballos is a bit of a tough one. We’ve got a real quiet spell on our hands, with hardly anything worth paddling out for. The first real surf doesn’t show up until Thursday the 10th, and even then, it’s a case of making the most of what we’ve got. There’s a solid stretch of days from early on until Wednesday the 9th where the energy is just too weak or the conditions aren’t cooperating, so we’re essentially sitting on the beach for a while.

Let’s start with Thursday the 10th. We see a little bump in energy, with combined swell energy around 439 (moderate), and the swell height hits 5 ft out of the east, with a period of 7 seconds. That’s short-period stuff, a bit of a close-out machine at a reef break like Caballos. The wind is cross-off from the ESE at 16 mph, which keeps the surface reasonably clean, but the quality just isn’t there – it’s a “marginal” setup that morning. The afternoon drops to 4 ft and the energy fades to 212, but honestly, it’s still not great. For the more experienced crew, it might be worth a look if you’re desperate, but for anyone else, it’s a pass.

Friday the 11th and Saturday the 12th are similar – small east swell, 4 ft and 3 ft respectively, with periods of 6-8 seconds. The cross-off wind hangs around at 16 mph, so it’s clean but the waves are weak and short-period, giving you nothing with any push. Combined energy is in the 126-188 range, which is weak to low-moderate. Not worth the paddle.

After that, things go really quiet from Sunday the 13th right through to Tuesday the 23rd of September. We’re looking at swell heights from 0.7 ft to 3 ft, with most days in that 1.0 ft to 1 ft zone. The period does spike to 14 seconds on the 16th from the NNE, but with a swell that small, that long-period groundswell just won’t have the height to break properly at a spot that’s as exposed as Caballos. It’s a classic case of a long-period swell wasting itself on an open reef without enough size to stand up. Combined energy most days sits under 100, dropping as low as 28 on the 20th – that’s just flat.

One day that might raise an eyebrow is Wednesday the 23rd. We get a return of 4 ft east swell with a 6-second period, and combined energy jumps back to 169. The wind’s cross-off from the ESE at 12 mph. It’s clean, but it’s that same short-period, average quality. It’s possible we see a slight improvement, but based on what’s on the table across all days, nothing here screams “go time.”

Caballos is rated as advanced and inconsistent, so this run of poor surf isn’t unusual for the spot. It’s a reef that needs a decent push from the north direction to really fire – the optimum swell here is from the north, and we’re stuck with east and north-easterly pulses for most of the window. That mismatch in swell direction against the optimum means the waves just don’t shape up well at all. Crowds are said to be “sometimes” an issue, but honestly, with conditions like this, you won’t have to worry about company.

My pick of the whole period? It would have to be Thursday the 10th, early morning. The 5 ft swell (east) is the biggest of the whole outlook, and combined with that moderate energy reading (439), it’s the only day that gets close to offering something. But it’s not a standout in any classic sense – it’s more of a “if you’re local and need a paddle, you might find something” kind of session. The wind keeps it clean, which is a big plus, but the short period and wrong direction mean it won’t be pretty.

Keep in mind, the water temperature here isn’t flagged with any anomaly in the data, so it’s about average for this time of year at Caballos.

So, to sum it up: a long, quiet run with only one barely rideable day (Thursday 10th) in the first week, then a total drought until the very end of the window when a small pulse shows up on the 23rd. Not the best outlook, but that’s how it goes sometimes. Forecasts can always change, but as it stands, leave the board in the car.

Rusty.

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