Caballos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s chew over the Caballos forecast. It’s a real dry spell, honestly. There’s a little bit of swell kicking around in the first week, but that east-southeast cross-off wind just ruins it, and the notes keep saying poor surf conditions. We’re looking at a blank run right through until Sunday, July 19th, before there’s even a whisper of something that might be worth paddling out for.

Overall Pattern: Starts off with a few days of small, weak 5ft easterly swell (6 second period), but that 19 mph breeze from the east keeps it cross-off and messy. Through the week, the swell hangs around 4ft to 6ft with combined wave energy hitting moderate to strong, peaking at 431 on the morning of Wednesday, July 8th, but the wind is relentless. Water temp is a balmy 84° with a normal anomaly for this time of year, so it’s swim trunks weather.

The Standout (the only real shot): If you’re itching for something, keep Sunday, July 19th on the radar, first light. Caballos gets a 5ft easterly swell (6 second period), combined energy at 243 (moderate). The wind drops a little to 12 mph, still cross-off. It only scores a one out of ten, and the guidance calls it “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” This is an inconsistent reef break that’s picky about tide, and that east swell is not the optimum north direction the spot craves. It won’t be glassy, and it’s a spot that rarely lines up, so if it does, expect the crowds that can sometimes pack in. It’s the best of a weak bunch, but that’s not saying much.

Before that, you’ve got a big dry gap from July 12th onward with almost nothing – we’re talking 0.7ft to 1ft most days – so save your energy. That little 0.7ft, 12-second pulse from the NNE on the morning of July 13th is a ghost wave. The second week is flat and wind-blown.

The Gist: For nearly two weeks, it’s been a tough run. That east wind won’t quit, and the swell is short and peaky. For a reef break, you need a cleaner slate. The combined energy gets up on Wednesday the 8th (431), but it’s wasted with that onshore kick. Honestly, with that wind, it looks more like a kite-surfing setup than a paddling one.

Hang tight. Forecasts can flip.

Rusty.

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