Caballos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's break down what Caballos is cooking up for the next 16 days, and I've got to level with you—it's a grim run.

We're dealing with a constant easterly breeze, blowing cross-offshore at about 15-19 mph for almost every session. While that's not the worst wind direction, the swell is just not cooperating.

The forecast starts dead slow. From Friday July 3rd all the way through Sunday July 12th, the surf is nearly flat or tiny, with heights barely reaching 0.7 to 1.0 ft on the better days. There's a brief push on Sunday July 5th afternoon hitting 4 ft, but with a period of only 6 seconds, the wave energy is a measly 99 (combined energy of all swells directed here). It's short period windswell, poor quality, and absolutely not worth getting wet for. That poor spell runs for about ten days straight, so you're looking at a big gap with nothing to ride.

Finally, around Wednesday July 8th, we see a pulse of swell. The morning brings a 5 ft wave from the east, period of 7 seconds, with the combined energy jumping to 479 (moderate to strong energy). But here's the catch: that same day has a risk of thunderstorms and the wind is still 15-19 mph. The surf might have a bit more power, but the conditions are reported as poor. This pattern drags on through to the end of the forecast. The waves stay in the 4 ft to 6 ft range, but the quality is consistently "poor surf conditions."

Even the best looking day, say Thursday July 9th with 5 ft from the east, is ruined by a 19 mph easterly wind. The wave energy is moderate at 212, but the short 7-second period means weak, crumbly waves.

Caballos is an advanced reef break that's inconsistent and rarely breaks. It likes a north swell best (optimum direction), but we're stuck with east and east-northeast the whole time. The water temp is 83°F with a +0.7°F anomaly, so pretty average for the season—warm, but it won't fix the waves.

When the swell pushes past 5 ft, it's for experts only, and with these winds and short periods, the setup actually looks more interesting for kite surfing than for paddling. There is no standout session in this 16-day window. Sometimes it goes this quiet around here; it’s just the way it is.

This is a waiting game, plain and simple. It won't stay flat forever, but for now, I'd say leave the board bagged up.

- Rusty

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