Caballos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, and I've gotta be straight with you—this is shaping up to be one of those stretches where the ocean just doesn't want to play ball. We're looking at a pretty grim 16-day window for Caballos, a reef break that's normally a gem when it's on, but it's inconsistent at the best of times, and right now it's downright stubborn.

The water's sitting at a warm 84°, which is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there. But the swell? It's struggling. For the first several days, we're stuck with short-period, weak windswell—mostly coming from the ENE at around 6 to 7 seconds. The energy is pathetic, with readings like 131 and 138 (weak energy), and the wind is a cross-off from the E or ESE, which keeps things clean but the waves are just poor. There's nothing to ride.

From Saturday the 15th and into Sunday the 16th, the swell tries to bump up a bit—5 ft to 8 ft from the ENE, with period creeping to 7–8 seconds, and energy climbing into the moderate range (312 to 778). But here's the gut punch: the wind swings cross-shore, fresh and strong, and we get lumpy, choppy conditions. That 8 ft on Sunday afternoon with a risk of thunderstorms? That's expert territory, and even then it's a messy, cross-chop mess. Honestly, for a reef break, this setup looks more like it'd be fun for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

We hit a brief glimmer on Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th morning—marginal surf, clean cross-off winds, swell around 4 ft to 5 ft from the ENE, with period up to 10 seconds, which is a bit more groundswell character. Energy is moderate (350 to 474). But it's rated as marginal, and the crowds at Caballos can sometimes be a factor, so it's not a standout. After that, from Tuesday afternoon onward, it's back to poor surf or tiny waves—0.7 ft to 3 ft, weak energy, until we get another marginal pulse around Tuesday the 25th and Wednesday the 26th. That late pulse shows 5 ft (E, 7s) on the 25th morning and 5 ft (E, 7s) on the 26th, with energy in the moderate range (365 and 349) and clean cross-off wind, but still only marginal.

Truth is, there's no true standout here. The best of a bad lot is probably Monday the 17th morning or Tuesday the 25th morning, but neither is anything to get excited about. If you're desperate, those are your picks—but keep expectations low.

Rusty.

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