Caballos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get this out there. It’s Saturday morning, August 8th, and ol’ Rusty here is lookin’ at the next couple weeks for Caballos. Now, I gotta be straight with ya – it’s a bit of a tease out here. The island’s pumping out this easterly wind, and the swell, well, it’s there, but it’s coming in with a cross-off angle that’s just not doin’ us any favors. The water’s sittin’ at a warm 85°, which is pretty much right on the money for this time of year, so the boardshorts are gonna be your best friend.

We’re lookin’ at a rough start. For the first week, the energy in the water is weak to moderate. The Saturday the 8th kicks off with a 4ft ENE swell at 7 seconds, and it just doesn’t get any better for a while. It’s messy, it’s punchy, and the cross-off wind is making it all mush. We’re talkin’ scores of zero out of ten for most of these days. The swell direction is from the ENE, but this place needs it from the North. It’s just all wrong.

We go into the 9th, 10th, 11th, all the same story. Swell around 4ft, then dropping to 3ft, with a period of 6 seconds. That’s short-period junk, no power. The wind is a steady 19-30 km/h from the east, which is cross-off, but it’s just adding a ton of texture. The energy numbers are low, mostly between 75 and 186, which is just weak to moderate, and I’m not getting stoked. It’s a week of paddling for nothing.

You gotta wait, and I mean really wait. The first real glimpse of life shows up on Friday the 14th. The swell picks up to 6ft and the energy starts to climb – we’re lookin’ at 419. It’s still not perfect, but it’s got a bit more push. The period is only 8 seconds, so it’s a bit of a short-period wind swell, not the clean groundswell we want. But it’s something.

Now, Saturday the 15th is the first day that gets a score of 1 out of 10. The swell is 7ft, the energy is up there at 534, but the wind is still a fresh 35 km/h cross-off. It’s lumpy, and the break is gonna be a grumpy one. This is pushing past the beginner-zone too – over 5ft, so you need to know what you’re doing. It’s not the clean one we’re all chasing, but it’s the biggest we see for a while.

Then Monday the 17th throws a real curveball. The wind swings to a cross direction, and it’s bringing a cross-chop with it. The morning swell is 7ft, but it’s a mess. But the afternoon? Oh boy, the afternoon on the 17th is the standout of this whole forecast. The swell drops a touch to 6ft, but the period jumps way up to 11 seconds, and the energy number hits 674 – that’s the biggest of the whole run. It’s a real groundswell pulse, and it has power. But that cross-chop is still there. It’s a score of 1, but it’s the best we’ve got. This is the one I’m circling on the calendar. It’s not going to be perfect, but there’ll be some proper waves out there. This will suit the point and reef better than the beach.

After that punch, it fades away. The energy drops off from Tuesday the 18th onwards. The swell drops to 4ft and then keeps fading into the 3ft range with a period of 8 seconds. The energy numbers sink back down to the 40s and 50s. The rest of the second week is a whole lot of nothing. It’s a week of small, clean but weak waves. It looks like Saturday the 22nd might give us a tiny bump, but it’s still just weak.

So here’s the skinny: it’s a bleak outlook for a while. The cross-off wind is the killer, and the swell direction is just all wrong. The one window is that Monday afternoon – the 17th. That 11-second groundswell is the real deal. If you’re an advanced surfer, that’s your window. It’s gonna be a raw, powerful day, but that’s when you’ll find the biggest and best waves. The rest is a lot of waiting, a lot of weird little waves, and a lot of wind. Forecasts can change, and it doesn't get this poor for long, so we’ll keep an eye on it. But as it stands, don’t get your hopes up too high.

Rusty, out.

Read more