Caballos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s take a good hard look at what’s on offer for Caballos.

Right off the bat, I gotta be straight with you – this is a pretty grim outlook. We’re looking at a solid 16-day run with no real standouts at all. The first record we’ve got is for Thursday, July 30th, and it’s a dud. The whole thing kicks off with a 5 ft swell from the east, but it’s coming in with a short, weak period of just 7 seconds, and the combined energy is only 216 (moderate). The wind is a cross-off from the ESE at 16 mph, which is actually not terrible for the wind direction, but the surf quality is just poor. Water temp is sitting at 84°F, which is about average for this time of year, so nothing weird there.

As we move through Thursday afternoon into Friday, July 31st, it’s more of the same. Still 5 ft from the east-northeast, period bumping up to 8 seconds, but the energy drops to 210 and then 204. The wind stays a steady cross-off, and the conditions are marked as marginal at best. Saturday, August 1st, the swell drops to 4 ft, period drops back to 7 seconds, and the energy falls to 135. Still poor. By Sunday, August 2nd, we’re down to 3 ft and 85 energy.

This low-energy, short-period, onshore-ish wind pattern just keeps grinding on. Monday, August 3rd is a tiny 3 ft swell with 6-second period and 76 energy. Then Tuesday, August 4th, it flatlines – literally zero energy in the morning, and a tiny 0.3 ft from the north in the afternoon. The rest of the first week and into the second week is a real struggle. We see a pulse of energy on Friday, August 7th, with 4 ft and 118 energy, but it’s still a 6-second period and the wind is a fresh cross-off at 19 mph. The surf conditions are still marked as poor.

The highest energy we see in the whole run is on Sunday, August 9th, with a 4 ft swell from the east, 6-second period, and a combined energy of 254 (moderate). But again, the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-off, and the quality is poor. There’s a similar bump on Tuesday, August 11th with 4 ft and 231 energy, but again, 6-second period and poor quality.

The truth is, Caballos is an advanced, inconsistent reef break that works best with swell from the north. The entire forecast window is dominated by east and east-northeast swells, which is completely off its optimum. The wind is almost always a cross-off or fresh breeze, never offshore. For a spot that’s already inconsistent, this is a total washout. There isn’t a single day where the swell size, direction, period, and wind all line up. For the advanced crew, the swell never gets over 5 ft, so it’s not too big, but the quality is just not there. This is more of a kite-surfing setup with the constant cross-off wind than a paddle session.

So, to put it bluntly: there’s nothing to get excited about here. The entire 16 days is a blank run. For Caballos, this kind of quiet spell is not unusual.

Rusty.

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