Caballos Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the next 16 days for Caballos.

Honestly, it’s a pretty bleak stretch for most of this run. We’ve got a real long gap of poor conditions ahead, so don’t expect much action for the first week and a half. The only real light at the end of the tunnel comes right at the tail end of the period, and it looks like a proper stand-out if the forecast holds.

The run kicks off on Friday afternoon, 14 August, but it is a write-off: onshore cross-winds at 16 mph and a messy, weak 4 ft swell (combined energy of 201). Water temp is 84°, which is about average for the time of year. Through the weekend and the start of next week, the swell drops right off – we’re talking knee-high at best through 19 August, with moderate breeze and cross-off winds, but simply not enough energy to push anything worthwhile. The combined energy values are tanking, dropping into the 30s and 40s. A real flat spell.

There’s a bit of a pulse around Saturday 22 and Sunday 23 August, with swell bumping back up to 4-4 ft, but it’s short-period stuff, only 6 seconds, and the winds are side-onshore or cross-off. Still, the energy numbers are in the low hundreds, so there’s a tiny bit of shape potential, but nothing to get excited about. Conditions are ordinary.

Now, skip ahead to the real highlight. Monday 24 August is where things start to change. You’ll see swell building through the day, hitting 6 ft in the morning (281 energy) and then 8 ft by the afternoon with a solid 8-second period and combined energy over 700. The winds are still cross-off to cross, so it’s a bit messy, and the forecast is marked as marginal.

The standout is Tuesday 25 August. This is the one. In the morning, there’s a 6 ft ENE swell under light northerly winds, but the afternoon is where it all comes together. We’re looking at a cracking 8 ft (1361 energy) from the east, an 8-second period, and – get this – glassy conditions with a light northerly breeze. That is clean, lined-up swell. The water temp is still around 84°, and the crowd factor at Caballos is “sometimes”, so you might not have it to yourself, but it’ll be worth sharing waves with. This swell matches the optimum direction of north (offshore), with the swell coming from ENE, so it’s well-aligned. Given the size (over 8 ft), this one is strictly for experienced surfers only. This is the clear stand-out of the whole 16-day window.

After that, Wednesday 26 August drops right back off into small, weak conditions, and it stays poor right through to the end of the period on 29 August.

So overall, you’ve got about 10 days of nothing, then a blip of okay-ish surf on the 24th, then the real deal on the afternoon of the 25th. Mark the calendar for that Tuesday if you’re keen, but treat the long-range promise with a bit of caution. After that, it goes flat again.

Rusty.

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