El Penon Amador Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s talk about El Penon Amador. Right off the bat, I’ll tell you straight – this stretch of the coast is looking pretty bleak for the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a solid 16-day window, but there’s a big hole at the start where you’d be better off doing just about anything else.

We’re kicking off Monday the 10th of August, and it’s a total write-off. Winds are howling out of the ENE at 22 mph, creating a lumpy cross-chop on a weak 4 ft swell that’s only packing a period of 6 seconds. The combined swell energy is a paltry 140 – that’s barely a ripple, and it’s just messy. This poor run drags on for days. Tuesday and Wednesday offer nothing but more cross-winds, tiny waves, and the occasional risk of a thunderstorm. By Thursday the 13th, the swell bumps up a little, but the wind is still a fresh cross-offshore, and the energy is still low.

Friday the 14th of August sees the biggest pulse of the whole outlook – a 8 ft easterly swell with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to a solid 708. That’s moderate energy, but here’s the kicker: it’s blowing 25 mph from the ENE, making it a strong cross-shore mess. The morning might be clean with that cross-off wind, but by afternoon, it’s choppy chaos. This spot is a reef break for advanced surfers only, and even they’ll be fighting the wind. With those strong breezes and a beach-and-reef setup, this actually looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The pattern of poor surf conditions continues through the weekend and into the next week. Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th are more of the same – 5 ft to 7 ft of swell, but cross-winds and lumpy conditions keep the quality terrible. You’ll be paddling into a mess.

Now, here’s a little flicker of hope – Monday the 17th of August. The morning still looks marginal with a 7 ft swell from the ENE and a 12-second period. That’s a long-period groundswell, which usually means better shape, but the cross-wind and moderate breeze mess it up. However, by Monday afternoon, things shift. The wind swings around to the south at just 6 mph – offshore – and the conditions turn clean. The swell drops to 6 ft from the ENE with an 11-second period, giving a combined energy of 782. The model says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is the standout of the whole outlook, but it’s fleeting. This reef break can be inconsistent, and with crowds listed as “sometimes,” you might get a few others sniffing around. Given the swell direction (ENE) and the optimum swell direction for this break being from the north, it’s a bit off-angle, but that clean, offshore wind and that long-period energy will still push some nice, lined-up waves. For advanced crew only – 6 ft is solid, and the reef won’t forgive a mistake.

After that, it’s back to the doldrums. Tuesday the 18th of August through to Tuesday the 25th of August is a long stretch of poor to marginal conditions. Swells stay between 0.3 ft and 5 ft, mostly short-period windswell, and the wind never really lets up from the east or northeast, often hitting 19 to 25 mph. The combined energy barely gets above 243, and most days it’s well under 200. There’s a few moments on Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th where the swell drops to almost nothing. This is a real blank run, and for this area, that’s pretty normal when the trades lock in. Don’t hold your breath – forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a tough stretch.

So, if you’re itching for a paddle, keep your eyes on Monday the 17th of August afternoon. That’s your best shot: clean, offshore, and a decent groundswell. Everything else is a hard pass.

Rusty.

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