Bells Beach - Bowl Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Rusty here with the outlook for Bells Beach – Bowl.

Right now, it’s a bit of a slow start with only marginal conditions on offer. The first real chance to get wet is Sunday morning the 13th. You're looking at a 4ft swell from the southwest, with a solid 15-second period. The combined energy is moderate at 509, so it's not a waste of time, but it’s rated as marginal. The wind is a north cross-off at 12 mph, so it’s clean. But don't expect anything special – it's just a warm-up.

Monday the 14th is flat and poor, so give it a miss. Tuesday the 15th sees a jump in size – 8ft on Tuesday morning from the southwest, 13-second period, but the energy is strong at 2984. However, the wind is a cross-off at 16 mph, and it’s still considered marginal. By Tuesday afternoon, the wind swings onshore with rain, and it’s a lumpy mess. This is expert territory at 8ft, so if you’re not a gun, stay out.

Wednesday the 16th is a write-off with strong cross-onshore winds and choppy, poor conditions on a 8ft swell. Thursday the 17th is still average – a 6ft swell but with cross and cross-onshore winds, so it’s choppy.

Now, here’s the standout. Friday the 18th is where it gets good. The morning has a 4ft SSW swell at 14 seconds, but it’s the offshore wind from the west-northwest at 12 mph that makes it clean. The energy is strong at 1208. By the afternoon, the swell bumps to 5ft with a 16-second period and a gentle offshore wind. The energy climbs to 2166. This is excellent for experienced surfers and easily the best session of the first week. The bowl will have shape, and the long period means longer waits but better waves.

Saturday the 19th stays clean with offshore winds and a smaller 4ft swell from the southwest. It’s still good, but not as punchy as Friday. Sunday the 20th has fresh offshore winds, but the swell drops to 3ft and the energy is weak. Not worth the paddle.

Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd are a mix. Monday has light onshore winds and a 4ft swell – marginal. But Tuesday the 22nd is another standout. A 5ft SSW swell in the morning jumps to 7ft in the afternoon, both with 16-second periods. Offshore winds from the north-northwest and northwest, light and clean. The energy is strong (1098 morning, 2095 afternoon). This is excellent for experienced surfers. The bowl will be firing.

Wednesday the 23rd keeps it going with 7ft in the morning and 6ft in the afternoon, both with 16-second periods and light offshore winds. Still excellent. After that, the wind shifts onshore from Thursday the 24th through Friday the 25th, turning the surf poor to marginal. Not worth it.

Saturday the 26th brings back light offshore winds from the northwest and a 4ft southwest swell at 15 seconds. The energy is moderate but the conditions will be very clean and fun. A good option for a weekend paddle.

Sunday the 27th morning is another highlight: 6ft from the south-southwest with a very long 17-second period. Gentle offshore wind from the northwest. The energy is strong at 1964. This is excellent, but with that long period, the bowl will be more focused and the sets will be slower. It’s a reef and point, so it’ll handle it well.

Monday the 28th finishes the run with strong onshore winds and 7ft to 8ft of messy, poor surf. That’s a hard pass.

Crowds at Bells (Big Island) are listed as “sometimes” busy, so you can often find a spot, especially if you time the tides.

Water temp is around 57°F, which is about average for this time of year.

So the pick of the entire 16 days is Friday the 18th and Tuesday the 22nd. Both have excellent offshore winds, solid groundswell, and good energy. For the long-range look, Sunday the 27th morning is a promising but less certain standout with that very long period. If you’re chasing the best, those are your windows.

Rusty.

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