Bells Beach - Bowl Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been looking at the charts for the next couple of weeks. It’s a bit of a slow starter, but if you’ve got patience, there’s a proper session brewing that’ll make you forget the quiet days.

The first real surf worth paddling out for doesn’t hit until Wednesday afternoon, the 29th of July. That’s the standout – the rest of the run-up is pretty marginal. From the 27th into the 29th morning, you’re looking at small, weak groundswell with dodgy winds, so it’s a waiting game. Then Wednesday arvo, the place absolutely lights up.

Bells Beach – Bowl (reef and point) is the only break on the cards, and it’s a beauty for the crew who can handle it. That Wednesday afternoon, a solid 15 ft swell rolls in from the SW, with a period of 15 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is massive at 11100, so you’ll feel the ocean humping. The wind is cross-offshore from the WSW at 15 mph, which keeps the face clean. This is advanced territory, with the size over 8 ft, so it’s experts only. The crowds are ‘sometimes’ an issue, but with this much juice, there’ll be plenty of water to spread out. Water temp is sitting at 57°F, which is about normal for the time of year, so you won’t need a steamer thicker than usual.

Thursday the 30th backs off a touch – morning sees 5 ft from the SSW at 13 seconds (energy 941), with clean cross-off winds. Not the same punch but still a fun session for the experienced. Thursday arvo bumps up to 8 ft from the SW (energy 2337), with a gentle cross-off. Still clean, still solid.

Friday the 31st eases right down. Morning is 4 ft SW at 12 seconds (energy 366), light cross-off. The real gem is Friday arvo – glassy conditions with a SSE breeze at 3 mph, and 3 ft from the SSW at 12 seconds (energy 392). That’s a clean, cruisy session for those who want a paddle without the battle.

Saturday the 1st of August starts tiny with 2 ft from the SW at a very long 18 seconds (energy 495), but the arvo picks up to 5 ft from the SW at 17 seconds (energy 1803). That’s a long-period groundswell, so expect nice lines at the point, but it might wall up at the bowl. Light breeze, clean.

The first week of August holds some hope. Sunday the 2nd brings 4 ft SW at 16 seconds (energy 893) in the morning with fresh cross-off winds, then arvo has 4 ft from the SW at 16 seconds (energy 698) with offshore winds – clean and rideable. Monday the 3rd is 5 ft SW at 15 seconds (energy 871), gentle cross-off. Tuesday the 4th morning is 4 ft SW at 16 seconds (energy 678), offshore from the NW – that’s a clean, sneaky fun session.

By Wednesday the 5th, you get a 5 ft SW at a very long 18 seconds (energy 2210). That’s pushing into overhead territory, but with that long period, it’ll be best at the reef or point, not so much the bowl. Light cross-shore wind, so still okay.

The second week gets smaller and less reliable. Thursday the 6th sees 4 ft SW at 16 seconds (energy 573) in the morning with clean winds, but the arvo drops to 3 ft. Friday the 7th is tiny – 1 ft from the SSW at a super-long 23 seconds (energy 400). That’s a ghost swell, barely a bump. The weekend of the 8th and 9th is small, with 3 ft and 3 ft from the SW, but the wind turns ugly on Sunday arvo – fresh cross-shore from the SW at 22 mph with lumpy chop. That’s a write-off.

Monday the 10th has a pulse of 6 ft from the SW at 14 seconds (energy 1290), but it’s cross-onshore and choppy – not great for paddling, maybe more fun for the kite crew. Tuesday the 11th is onshore crap with 4 ft from the SW at 11 seconds (energy 502), then dropping to 3 ft – poor conditions all round.

So, the call is clear: Wednesday afternoon, 29th July, is the best on offer. Big, clean, and powerful. Thursday the 30th is a solid backup. After that, it’s a mixed bag of small days and a few clean windows. The second week is mostly a write-off, with a few small clean windows but nothing to get the heart racing.

Rusty.

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