Bells Beach - Bowl Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. The long-range charts have been lighting up for Bells Beach – Bowl (Bells Beach), and trust me, this one’s got some serious potential locked in. It's a reef and point setup that loves a solid SW groundswell, and this run has exactly that in spades. The water temp is sitting at 57°F, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year, so nothing crazy there.

The first real window is Saturday the 12th. We’ve got a clean 5ft SW swell rolling in with a nice long 15-second period, and it’s dead glassy with a light NNE cross-off. That’s a proper combo – the energy’s got some weight to it (1005), and the lineup is going to be clean. It's an advanced wave, so it’s not for the faint-hearted, but for those who know their way around Bells, it’ll be well worth it. Sunday the 13th is still clean but the swell drops off to about 4ft. There’s a bit more north in the wind at 12 mph, so it’s still cross-off and surfable, but it loses that Saturday magic. Monday the 14th is a write-off – the swell has pretty much shut down, down to 2ft. Not worth paddling out for anything more than a swim.

Then things get interesting. Tuesday the 15th sees a big pulse of energy hit, with the combined swell energy jumping right up to 3655. The size is solid at 8ft, but the wind swings around to the west-southwest at 16 mph in the morning, then gets fresh from the southwest at 22 mph in the afternoon. That’s going to make it lumpy and full of cross-chop. It’s big, but it won’t be pretty. This one’s more for the experts, and even then, the conditions are going to be challenging. Wednesday the 16th, that energy is still there at 8ft, but the wind goes southerly and cross-on, which is going to chop it right up. Not a day for clean waves – a miss.

Thursday the 17th eases off to 5ft, but the south wind is still on it, so it stays messy. Friday the 18th, and this is where it starts to turn on again. The wind goes offshore from the northwest at 12 mph, and we’ve got a clean 4ft SW swell in the morning that bumps up to 5ft in the afternoon. And look at that period – 17 seconds in the afternoon! That’s very long-period groundswell, proper energy. The energy readings are solid too (1006 and 1893). This is looking like a great day for the Bowl. The long period might make it break a little straight at the beachies, but for a reef and point like Bells, it’s ideal.

Saturday the 19th is still worth a paddle. Morning has a clean 4ft SW swell with a moderate offshore. It drops off a bit into the afternoon and the wind goes more cross-off, but there’ll be waves. Sunday the 20th, the swell drops to 3ft but the morning is still clean with offshore wind. There’s some light rain around too. It’s small but potentially fun.

Looking further out, the following week has some more interesting pulses. The 22nd looks big again with 8ft SW groundswell, but the wind is onshore from the southeast. That’s a frustrating one – all that energy (3004) and nowhere to go with the wind. But then Wednesday the 23rd shapes up as a ripper. The swell is still a healthy 6ft from the SW with a 15-second period, and the wind goes light from the NNW in the morning, then drops to almost nothing by the afternoon with glassy conditions. That is a standout day for this run. The energy is solid (1609 and 1238) and the surface is going to be clean. Expect a crowd, though, because everyone will want a piece of that.

Thursday the 24th is another good one. Still 5ft of SW swell and clean, with offshore conditions in the afternoon. Friday the 25th has a clean morning with a 4ft swell, but the wind swings around in the afternoon and it gets a bit cross-shore. The weekend of the 26th and 27th, the swell starts to taper off and the winds get a bit iffy, so it’s not a major focus.

Overall, this forecast is well above average for the region. The standout days look to be Friday the 18th and Wednesday the 23rd. Friday the 18th for the jump in period and clean offshore wind, and Wednesday the 23rd for the combo of size, clean conditions, and glassy afternoon. They are a week and a half away, so keep an eye on the charts, but they are promising. There’s a solid run of average-to-good days around them too, so it’s not a one-hit-wonder window.

Rusty

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