Bells Beach - Bowl Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, crew. Rusty here, and I’ve got a look at what’s coming up over the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a slow start, but there’s a proper pulse of energy building later on that’s worth getting excited about. Let’s break it down.

First up, the word on the water temperature. Out at Bells Beach - Bowl, it’s sitting about average for the time of year, so nothing crazy there – just standard winter chill.

The first few days are a bit of a tease. We’ve got swell from Wednesday the 12th through the 13th, but it’s a case of “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions” with a cross-off wind. The swell is solid, around 5ft to 7ft southwest, with a long 16-second period – that’s proper groundswell energy. For a reef and point break like Bells, that long period actually helps, giving you well-shaped lines and longer gaps between sets, making the paddle out a bit easier. The combined wave energy is strong, hitting 1330 to 2444, so there’s plenty of power. But the wind, while cross-off, is a moderate breeze, and the conditions just aren’t clean enough to call it a standout. The score’s there, but it’s not quite clicking.

Now, Thursday the 13th afternoon into Friday the 14th morning is where it starts to get interesting. The swell holds around 7ft to 7ft from the southwest, period still 16 seconds, and the wind drops to a light to gentle breeze, cross-off. The combined energy is still very strong, over 2000, and the conditions are described as “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is for the advanced crew – that 7ft at Bells with a long-period SW groundswell and clean lines is a proper session. Look to Friday morning as the pick of the early period.

But then we hit a gap. From Friday afternoon the 14th, the wind swings onshore, the swell drops, and the quality falls off. Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th are messy, with cross-on winds and lumpy conditions. The swell drops to 4ft to 6ft, energy fading to moderate. By Monday the 17th, it’s small – 3ft – and the energy is weak, around 378. We’ve got a dead run from Friday afternoon through to the end of the following week, with only a brief flicker of clean surf on Tuesday the 18th morning (2ft, cross-off, clean, but tiny). That’s a gap of about 5 days of nothing worth paddling for.

Then comes the real standout. Mark your calendars for Tuesday the 25th of August afternoon. The swell jumps to 10ft from the southwest, period 15 seconds, and the wind is a gentle breeze cross-off, creating clean conditions. The combined energy is massive – 5816 – that’s exceptional, and the conditions are described as “exceptional surf conditions for expert surfers.” This is a big, powerful groundswell, and at Bells, that means proper, grinding walls. Only for the experienced crew – 10ft is well into expert territory. The direction is right on the optimum for this break, which is southwest. This is the best on offer, no question.

The days after that ease off. Wednesday the 26th still has 7ft from the SSW, clean, good for experienced surfers, but it’s a step down. By Thursday the 27th, the wind swings onshore and it’s all over.

So, to wrap it up: the early days have a few good windows for advanced surfers, especially Friday the 14th morning. Then there’s a long gap of small, messy surf. The big prize is Tuesday the 25th afternoon – that’s a proper swell, but it’s only for the experts. Keep an eye on it, but remember, it’s a long-range call, so forecast confidence is lower. For now, get your gear ready for that window.

Rusty.

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