Bells Beach - Bowl Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a good look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

We’ve got a classic winter run coming up. The water is sitting at 57°, which is pretty much spot on for this time of year, nothing unusual there. The early part of the week is a bit of a slow burner, but the models are showing a solid pulse of long-period SW groundswell arriving mid-period, and it’s shaping up to be a proper run for the crew who know what they’re doing.

Friday 10th kicks things off with a tidy 3ft SW swell. The period is a juicy 15 seconds, which is proper groundswell energy. The combined energy is sitting at 421 (moderate), and with a light NNW cross-off breeze, Bells Beach - Bowl will be clean and lined up. The morning is the call here, as the afternoon goes a bit cross with a light NE breeze and the swell drops a touch to 3ft. The long period will make the sets a bit more separated, but it’ll be quality.

Saturday 11th is a write-off. The swell drops right out and the wind cranks up from the NNE, making it messy and small. Not worth the paddle.

Sunday 12th is interesting. The swell jumps to 5ft, but the wind is howling offshore from the WNW at 25 mph. While that’s clean, it’s going to be a battle to get out. The afternoon sees the swell push to 6ft and the wind drops to 15 mph, making it a much better window. The combined energy jumps to 1100 (strong), so there’s plenty of push.

Monday 13th is the first real standout. We’ve got a 7ft SW swell, a period of 16 seconds, and the combined energy is a massive 3165 (very strong). This is a big, powerful groundswell. The NW wind is offshore and fresh, so the face will be clean. Bear in mind, at 7ft this is getting into expert territory at the Bowl. The morning is the pick here.

Tuesday 14th keeps the energy high. The swell is 8ft in the morning, then 7ft in the afternoon, both from the SW with a 16-second period. The combined energy is still well into the thousands (2771 and 2352). The wind is cross-off, but manageable. The Bells Bowl will be a beast, but it's not as clean as Monday. Still, for the experienced surfer, it’s a big day.

Wednesday 15th is the absolute gem of the run. The swell drops to a more manageable 6ft, with a 15-second period, and the wind goes light offshore from the WNW in the morning. The combined energy is still strong at 1546. The forecast says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers," and that’s the truth. The Bells lineup will be a thing of beauty. This is the morning to get out there. The afternoon stays clean with a light westerly cross-off.

Thursday 16th is a beauty for the weekend warriors. The swell is down to 4ft, but the period is still 14 seconds. The wind goes glassy offshore from the NW in the morning, and then the afternoon is glassy flat calm from the east. Combined energy is about 600 (moderate). This is a perfect day for a longboard or a funboard. The set waves will be clean and peeling.

Friday 17th keeps the fun going. A 5ft SW swell with a 16-second period, and light offshore winds. The combined energy is 979 (moderate). This is still a very good day, just a step down from Wednesday.

Saturday 18th onwards, we see the swell drop off quickly. The wind comes back onshore from the NNE, and the combined energy drops to 289 (weak) and lower. The surf becomes infrequent and small through the second week.

The Bottom Line: The first week is the story here. Monday 13th morning is for the big dogs, but Wednesday 15th morning is the pick of the whole run. That’s the one to circle on the calendar. It’s going to be a proper, clean, powerful Bells day. The second week has a few 3ft days with offshore wind (like Thursday 23rd and Friday 24th), but the energy is weaker and the consistency is a gamble. Stick with the first week if you can.

Rusty.

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