Bells Beach - Bowl Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, Rusty here. Let’s cut through the noise and look at the next couple of weeks for our stretch of coast. We’ve got a bit of a slow start, but there’s some serious juice further down the line. Don’t go getting your hopes up for tomorrow, but keep an eye on the back half of the run.

First up, the first real wave of the window is on Thursday the 27th. It's not big, with a clean 3ft on the face, but that light offshore NW wind is a beauty. It’s clean, but it’s small – more of a grovel than a glory day. The water is sitting at 56°F which is pretty much average for this time of year, so nothing special there.

Friday the 28th shows a bit more push, but that wind swings cross and it gets a bit lumpy. The swell is around 3ft in the morning and 4ft by the afternoon with a stronger SW pulse, but the conditions are marginal. Not the one.

The weekend is a mixed bag. Saturday morning is clean with a light cross-offshore breeze and 4ft of SW swell, but by lunch the seabreeze kicks in and ruins the party with cross-onshore wind. Sunday, the 30th, is the pick of the weekend. A clean 4ft, glassy morning with a light WNW offshore wind, and the energy is building. It’s still not massive, but the surface will be smooth.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. Monday the 31st is a standout. Overnight, a proper groundswell fills in, hitting 5ft with a long 15-second period from the SSW. The energy is jumping in the morning and holding in the arvo. With a light offshore breeze all day, this is the first real taste of what’s to come. It’s still a bit much for beginners, but for the experienced crew, this is where it starts to get fun. This is the one to circle early.

The middle of the following week gets a bit mushy. Tuesday the 1st has fresh offshore winds, but the swell drops back to the 4ft to 4ft range. It’s clean, but the power is down. Wednesday the 2nd is similar, small and clean, nothing to write home about.

Then we get the big push. From Thursday the 3rd into Friday the 4th, it gets proper serious. The swell jumps up to 7ft with a long 15-17 second period, and the energy readings are huge. It’s over the 8ft mark on Friday afternoon, and that’s a serious paddle. If you’re not confident, give it a miss. This is the big swells of the window, but it’s going to be a battle. Kite surfers will be frothing on this, too, given the wind and size.

The weekend of the 5th and 6th is a tale of two halves. Saturday the 5th is excellent – 6ft of SSW swell, with a clean and gentle offshore wind. The energy is still very strong. Sunday the 6th, though, is a write-off. The swell hits 12ft, with the energy going ballistic, but the wind howls at 28-31 mph. It’s just a stormy mess, even if the wind is offshore. Not a surf day for the sane.

Monday the 7th cleans up nicely – 6ft with a moderate offshore breeze and excellent conditions. Solid, powerful, and clean. But the real standout of the second week is Tuesday the 8th. This is the best on offer. We’ve got 8ft to 8ft of long-period SW groundswell, a 16-second period, and a light to moderate offshore wind all day. The energy is massive, but the wind keeps it clean. This is big, powerful, perfect point-break surf. The Bowl (Bells Beach - Bowl) will be handling this beautifully. It's pushing the limits of what’s safe, but for the experts, this is a day to remember.

Wednesday the 9th has another bout of solid swell, around 7ft with some good offshore wind, but it’s a bit more average. Then we start to fade. The 10th is a drop-off back to small, clean conditions. It’s all over by then.

So to sum it up: the window starts slow, gets good on Monday the 31st, then the real muscle shows up from Thursday the 3rd through to Tuesday the 8th. The standout days to book off work are Monday the 31st and especially Tuesday the 8th. That Tuesday is the one where all the elements line up – size, period, wind, and that solid southwest groundswell. It’s going to be firing. The gap after the 10th looks quiet, but the forecasts can change, and they usually do.

Keep it salty.

Rusty.

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