Bells Beach - Bowl Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, looking at the next couple of weeks for Bells Beach - Bowl. The pattern is a proper winter swell train, but it’s not all plain sailing. We’ve got a solid run of SW groundswells coming through, but the wind is going to be the main character in this story. A lot of the time it’s blowing cross-off, which is okay, but it’s rarely glassy. The real standout is a window that looks absolutely firing for the crew who know what they’re doing.

The first bit of surf we can talk about kicks off on Wednesday the 22nd of July. The Bowl is picking up a 6 ft SW swell with a 13-second period, which is a decent groundswell, but with a 12 mph WSW cross-off wind, it’s going to be a bit of a wrestle. The wave energy is pumping at 1413 (moderate to strong), but the report says it’s marginal. It’s clean, but it’s not the best day to paddle out.

Thursday the 23rd of July is where things get real. The swell jumps to 12 ft from the SW, period 14 seconds, and the energy is massive at 7079 (very strong). This is a serious swell. The wave comment says it’s marginal for conditions, but the score is the highest of the run. The wind is 12 mph cross-off from the W. This is big, powerful, and only for advanced surfers. It’s a proper test of skill. The water temp is 57°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, just a touch above average.

The rest of the week into the weekend sees a slow drop in size, but the wind stays a bit messy. Friday morning the 24th has 8 ft SSW swell, period 15 seconds, still a lot of energy (3762), but the wind is cross-off again. The size is still pushing 8 ft, so it’s expert territory. Saturday the 25th has a 10 ft SW swell in the afternoon, but again, it’s cross-off.

Now, for the true standout. Look at Monday the 27th of July through Tuesday the 28th. Monday morning we get a 4 ft SW swell, period 12 seconds, with a 12 mph WNW *offshore* wind. The report says “expect good surf conditions” and it’s clean. The energy is 478 (moderate). Then Tuesday the 28th, that’s the one. The morning shows a 7 ft SSW swell, period 15 seconds, with a gentle 9 mph NW offshore wind. The wave comment says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers”. The energy is 2147 (strong). This is a long-period groundswell, perfect for a reef and point break like the Bowl. The sets will be clean, lined up, and powerful. The crowd can be *sometimes* a factor here, and on a day like this, you can bet the locals will be out. This is a proper session if you’ve got the skills.

The following week gets a bit grim. By Wednesday the 29th, the wind shifts onshore, and the conditions get choppy and poor. There’s a big gap of poor to terrible surf from Thursday the 30th of July all the way through to the end of the forecast on August 6th. The wind is all over the place, mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the swell drops off. The only small glimmer is a glassy morning on Friday the 31st of July, but that’s with a tiny 3 ft swell. It’s clean, but the energy is weak (201).

The very end of the run, around August 1st and 2nd, has a chance of cleaner conditions with a 3 ft SW swell and 17-second period, but the wind is light and offshore. It’s a long way out, so don’t get your hopes up too high, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.

So, for the best of the run, it’s hands down Tuesday the 28th of July. The 7 ft SSW groundswell, 15-second period, and a gentle offshore breeze will make the Bowl a true proving ground. If you’re an expert, that’s your window. The approach to that day is also promising with the Monday offshore session.

Stay safe, read the sets, and don’t be a hero if it’s too big.

Rusty.

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