Bells Beach - Bowl Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty. Look, I’ll level with ya – the next 16 days have some serious ups and downs for the Bells Beach area. We’re not looking at a paradise right now; the opening stretch is pretty grim with small dribble and junky winds. But hold onto ya board, because the back half of the run – especially around Saturday the 23rd of August – brings some proper Bells power and clean conditions that’ll have the regulars frothin’.

Right now, for Sunday the 16th of August afternoon, it’s clear skies but onshore SE breeze at 6 mph killing any chance of fun. The swell’s a limp 4 ft from the SSW with a weak 14-second period and combined energy of 545 (moderate energy). Water temp is sitting at 56°, which is bang on average for this time of year. Honestly, it’s a write-off.

Monday the 17th and Tuesday the 18th ain’t much better. A bit of SW groundswell pushing through with periods up to 16 seconds, but the wind’s all wrong – cross-on and cross-off, bumpy, and the swell height barely scrapes 3–3 ft. The energy bumps up to 674 on Monday arvo, but with onshore wind and a “light cross-onshore with small wind ripples” report, it’s just frustrating. Keep the stick in the car.

Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th drop off a cliff. Swell cratering to 1 ft, energy down to 84–175, and a fresh to strong NNE breeze (22 mph) that’s cross-off on Wednesday, then a moderate NW offshore on Thursday but the swell’s too tiny – 1–2 ft. You’d be chasing whitewash.

Now Friday the 21st of August gives us our first little glimmer. Cloudy skies, but a gentle NW offshore breeze at 9 mph, and the swell picks up to 3–4 ft from the SW with a 12- to 14-second period. Combined energy jumps to 563–977 (moderate to strong). The report says “expect very good surf conditions.” For a savvy surfer, the morning session with the gentle offshore and clean lines is worth a paddle. Not a standout, but a solid warm-up.

Saturday the 22nd of August looks messy. Morning has some clouds and a WSW cross-off at 12 mph with 5 ft SW swell (16 seconds) and energy of 1060 (strong). But by afternoon the wind swings SSW cross-on at 9 mph, the swell bumps to 6 ft, and it gets fairly choppy. It’s a miss.

Here’s the real deal: Saturday the 23rd of August – if you can only surf one day in this whole outlook, this is it. Bells Beach – Bowl (reef and point, advanced level) is on fire. Morning has clear skies, a solid NW offshore breeze at 12 mph, and a 6 ft SSW groundswell with a 16-second period. Combined energy is 1940 (strong to very strong). The report says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” The afternoon holds similar glory – 6 ft, 17-second period, energy 2032 (very strong), still clean and offshore. This is the standout. The 6 ft at Bells with that direction and offshore wind is what dreams are made of for experienced crew. Crowds are “sometimes” an issue here, so expect a few locals out, but with quality like this, it’ll be worth the company.

Sunday the 24th of August takes a turn. Swell drops to 5 ft, wind swings SW cross at 12–19 mph, and by afternoon it’s fresh cross-shore with lumpy cross-chop. Poor.

From Monday the 25th all the way through to Saturday the 30th of August, the run is mostly small to average. A few bright spots though: on Saturday the 29th of August morning, you’ve got glassy conditions (NW 3 mph) with 3 ft SW swell (14 seconds) and energy of 532 – “expect very good surf conditions.” Then Saturday afternoon goes nuts with glassy SE 3 mph, 5 ft SW swell at 18 seconds (very long period groundswell), and energy of 2027 (very strong). The report says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” This is another true standout – that 18-second period groundswell at Bells (a reef and point) will produce long, clean walls. Keep in mind, long-period SW swell at Bells can be pretty special, and with glassy winds, it’s a gem. That’s the second best on offer.

Sunday the 30th and Monday the 31st iron out to clean but small – 2–3 ft SW swell with light offshore winds. Good for a cruise, not a hero session.

So, to sum it up: the first week is mostly painful, but mark your calendar for Saturday the 23rd of August (morning or arvo) and Saturday the 29th of August (afternoon) for Bells at its best. The 23rd is the bigger standout for raw power, the 29th for that super-long period glassy perfection.

Stay salty, and don’t sleep on those two dates.

- Rusty

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