Andrew Molera State Park Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, it's Rusty here, and we’re looking at Andrew Molera State Park. It’s a beach and point set-up that is inconsistent and exposed to the west, with an optimum swell from the west. This stretch of coast is a bit of a mixed bag. The water temp is sitting at 61°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Right off the bat, things look pretty grim. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing much to get excited about. From the start of the period through to the weekend, the surf is mostly poor or just marginal at best. The wind is a persistent cross or cross-off breeze from the northwest, around 12 to 16 mph, and while the swell direction shifts around a bit, the quality just isn't there. The combined energy of the swells varies, but even when it hits the three-digit range (403 to 693), the wave comment says it all: "poor surf conditions" or "marginal." You’d be fighting a moderate cross-shore chop most days, and the swell heights are mostly under 3 ft.

Now, there is a tiny glimmer on Thursday, August 20th, with a morning pulse showing 4 ft from the northwest, but the period is a short 8 seconds and the overall energy is 607. It’s still described as "marginal," so don't get your hopes up. Friday, August 21st, shows a similar story with a 5 ft afternoon swell from the northwest, but again, a short 7-second period and poor conditions overall.

After that, we get into a real dead zone. From the 22nd of August well into the next week, it’s basically flat with tiny 2 ft to 2 ft swells and relentless cross-shore wind. The combined energy drops into the low to mid hundreds, and the "poor surf conditions" tag just keeps repeating. There’s a suggestion of a cleaner window on Wednesday afternoon, August 19th, with a cross-off breeze, but the swell is still only 3 ft. Not worth paddling out for.

Then, towards the very end of August and into the first of September, there’s a late-developing pulse. On Saturday, August 29th, we see a morning swell of 4 ft from the SSW with an *18-second period* and a strong combined energy of 1098. That’s proper groundswell energy. The wind is a cross-shore northwest breeze, which will put some chop on the face, but the potential is there. On Sunday, August 30th, it holds with a similar 4 ft SSW swell and a 16-second period, with a more gentle breeze from the WNW.

If I had to pick the one standout, it would be the morning of Saturday, August 29th. That 4 ft @ 18 seconds from the SSW brings in some real punch. The energy reading of 1098 is the strongest in the whole window. It’s a long period groundswell, which at a place like Molera with a sand and point set-up, could surprise you. The wind isn’t perfect, but the quality of that swell is hard to ignore. Just keep in mind this is over a week away, and forecasts can change, but it’s the only time in the whole 16 days where the numbers actually say, "Hey, maybe."

So, overall, it’s mostly a waiting game. The first 10-12 days are largely a write-off for any kind of decent surf. The late pulse at the end of August is the one to keep an eye on, but there’s a lot of flat, cross-shore nothingness to get through first.

- Rusty

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