Ajo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming over the next couple weeks. Starting on Wednesday, August 19th, there’s a long dry spell with hardly any surf worth a damn. The first few days are flat, weak, and wind-chopped. The real action doesn’t start showing until the end of the month, and the best window is over a week away. Expect a lot of waiting.

Over at Ajo, the water is 75°, which is much warmer than usual for the time of year, so at least you won’t freeze while you sit through the flat spells.

Wednesday the 19th is a total dud: 1-foot swell from the NNW with a 6-second period, combined energy a measly 9, and light cross-shore wind that quickly turns onshore and messy. Thursday the 20th shows a slight pulse to 4 feet from the NW with an 11-second period, combined energy up to 347 – that’s moderate. The wind is offshore from the north in the morning, but the forecast still calls it poor with light rain. Still, that might be the best of a bad bunch early on. Friday the 21st brings 5-foot swell from the NW at 10 seconds, combined energy around 538-560, but the wind is cross-shore and bumpy, leaving it marginal at best.

Saturday the 22nd is a little highlight in the early flatness. The morning has 4 feet from the NW at 9 seconds, combined energy of 186 (moderate), and the wind is glassy from the east at only 3 mph. That’s clean – no bumps. It’s only surfable and ordinary, but with no wind, Ajo might offer a few fun waves. By afternoon, the wind picks up and it’s choppy again. Sunday and Monday the 23rd and 24th are back to tiny and poor.

Tuesday the 25th morning is another brief reprieve. Glassy conditions with light wind from the southwest, 4 feet from the NNW at 7 seconds, combined energy 164 – surfable but nothing special. Wednesday the 26th is cross-shore and only 4 feet.

Then Thursday the 27th brings a bigger pulse: 6 feet from the NW at 8-9 seconds, combined energy over 500, but the wind is cross to cross-onshore and messy. Still only a marginal call. Friday the 28th is similar with 5 feet from the NW at 10 seconds, cross-shore wind, small ripples.

Now here’s the big one. On Monday, August 31st, the swell jumps to 10 feet from the NW with a 10- to 11-second period. The combined energy hits 1522 in the morning and 1740 in the afternoon – that’s very strong energy. The wind is light and clean in the morning, cross-offshore from the WSW, so the waves could look good. But the forecast warns that 10-foot swell is too big for this break. This is strictly for experts only, and with that long period, it might close out or be a punishing mess. Not for beginners or intermediates.

After that, the swell drops back to 5 feet on Tuesday, September 1st, but the wind turns onshore. Then Wednesday, September 2nd, is your real standout: 6 feet from the NW at 9 seconds, combined energy of 514, and glassy conditions with zero wind in the morning. The forecast says expect very good surf conditions, and that is the best call of the entire forecast. Clean, strong, solid size. Mark that Wednesday morning. After that, it fades back to smaller, ordinary waves by Thursday the 3rd.

So, bottom line: first week is mostly flat and ugly. Tuesday the 25th morning offers a small, clean session. The huge swell on Monday the 31st is only for experts. But the real winner is Wednesday morning, September 2nd: glassy, 6 feet from the NW, strong energy. That is the one to wait for.

Keep your eyes on the horizon.

Rusty

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