The Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a decent run of surf lined up at The Island over the next couple of weeks, but it’s a bit of a mixed bag, so let’s break it down.

The action kicks off on Tuesday afternoon, July 7th, with a solid 4ft swell rolling in from the SW, and a long period of 16 seconds giving it some proper groundswell grunt. The combined energy is already pumping at 715 (moderate energy), but the real winner is that wind: a light 3 mph ESE cross-off shore keeping things glassy. This is clean, lined-up reef surf, and it’s a beautiful start for anyone who knows the break.

Wednesday, July 8th, is when the juice really turns up. Morning session sees the swell jump to 6ft from the SW, with a 17-second period – that’s long period groundswell, and the combined energy cranks up to 2199 (strong). Wind is offshore from the ENE at 6 mph, so the surface will be pure silk. The afternoon holds at 6ft, though the wind goes cross-off. This is excellent surf, but at 6ft on a reef, it’s one for experienced surfers only. Thursday the 9th is still worth a paddle: 4ft SW with a 15-second period, cross-off breeze from the NNE at 9 mph, and combined energy of 794 (moderate). Clean lines, but the swell starts to drop.

Now things get a bit ordinary. From Thursday afternoon through the weekend and into the following week, the wind swings onshore and kicks up. Thursday afternoon gets a cross-on breeze from the NW at 9 mph, and by Friday the 10th it’s onshore WNW at 9 mph, with the swell dropping to 4ft and combined energy falling to 714 (weak). Saturday and Sunday are a write-off: fresh to strong onshore winds from the WSW and SW at 22 mph, dumping all over a 6ft SW swell that would have otherwise been fun. The combined energy is actually solid (over 1200), but the wind junks it completely. Even the Monday the 13th is a no-go – 8ft SW swell, but onshore cross-on winds at 12 mph make for choppy, messy conditions, and at that size it’s only for experts anyway.

The tide starts to turn on Tuesday, July 14th. That morning delivers a glassy 6ft SW swell with a 16-second period, and a light 3 mph ESE offshore wind. Combined energy of 1700 (strong) – this is back to excellent, clean reef waves for experienced surfers. The afternoon holds the same size and period, with a light 6 mph S cross-off breeze. Wednesday the 15th offers a slightly smaller 5ft SW swell, still with that long period, and a clean cross-off NE breeze at 9 mph – combined energy drops to 968 (moderate), but it’s a good session for intermediates.

The second week, from July 16th onward, gets messy again. Thursday the 16th has a moderate 5ft SW swell with a 16-second period, but the wind is cross-shore from the N at 16 mph, creating a lumpy cross-chop. Combined energy of 1289 (moderate), but the surface quality is a letdown. Friday through Sunday (the 17th to 19th) are similar: fresh to moderate onshore or cross-shore winds between 16 and 19 mph, messing up swell that’s mostly in the 4ft to 5ft range. The standout in this stretch is Friday morning – a 5ft, 17-second period SW swell with 1426 combined energy (strong), but that fresh cross-shore wind from the N at 19 mph makes it a salvage job at best.

Monday, July 20th, sees the biggest swell of the whole run: a solid 10ft from the SW, with a 13-second period and combined energy of 2407 (very strong). But the wind is a near gale from the SW at 37 mph on the morning, and 31 mph in the afternoon – a total blowout. At that size and with those winds, don’t even think about paddling out; if you’re into kiting, the setup looks more interesting than paddle surfing. The rest of that week slowly winds down, with smaller swell but persistent onshore SW winds between 9 and 22 mph, keeping conditions poor right through Wednesday, July 22nd.

The best windows are absolutely Tuesday July 7th afternoon, Wednesday July 8th all day – that 6ft SW with offshore winds and 2199 combined energy is the top dog – and Tuesday July 14th morning. Crowds are listed as “sometimes” at The Island, so expect a few others with the same idea, but these windows are worth the effort. Remember, we’re talking a reef break here, so the long period (over 15 seconds) means the sets will be clean and powerful, with longer gaps between them – good for paddling out, but you need to know the line-up.

Rusty.

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