The Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s talk surf.

The only spot on the radar for this 16-day run is The Island, a consistent advanced reef break that’s exposed to the SW. Water temp is sitting at 61°F, which is about average for this time of year – no real surprise there.

We’re looking at a bit of a slow start, with a couple of days of pretty average conditions. Thursday the 3rd has some size – around 6ft to 7ft from the SW – but the wind is straight onshore from the WNW at 9 mph, and that energy is strong at 1329, so the ocean’s got power, but it’s messy. Not much to get excited about there. Friday the 4th is even worse: the swell jumps to 8ft SW, with a long 16-second period, and the cross-off wind is howling at 22 mph from the NNE. The combined energy is huge at 2448, but that onshore cleanup on Friday afternoon is going to ruin it.

Saturday the 5th is a write-off. We’ve got 8ft to 10ft SW swell, but the wind is cross-onshore and strong, and the energy is absolutely pumping (2515 to 5212). That amount of power with that wind direction is going to be a washing machine – more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Sunday the 6th is your standout. Morning session is the one. We’ve got a solid 6ft SW swell (14-second period, nice groundswell), but the magic is the offshore wind from the ENE at just 9 mph. Gentle offshore and clean, and the combined energy is a healthy 1363. This is excellent surf for experienced surfers – the reef will be working, and with that light offshore, expect clean, lined-up walls. Crowds are only *sometimes* an issue here, so you might luck out. This is the best clean swell window in the whole forecast.

Monday the 7th drops right off – swell down to 3ft, barely a ripple, with fresh cross-off winds. Not worth a paddle.

Then things get a bit more promising again mid-week. Tuesday the 8th has a 7ft SW swell with a very long 17-second period. The energy is strong at 2265, and the wind is cross-off from the ESE at 16 mph, keeping things clean. The period is long, which at a reef break like The Island is actually a bonus – expect proper groundswell lines with long gaps between sets. That’s good for paddling out, but remember, long-period swells can make beach breaks close out; on a reef, they’ll hold up nicely.

Wednesday the 9th is another one to circle. Morning has offshore wind from the ESE at 19 mph, with a 4ft SW swell that has an epic 21-second period. Energy is very strong at 2909. That’s an incredibly long period for that size – it’ll be smooth, powerful, and hollow on the reef. The afternoon ramps up to 8ft SW with a 19-second period and 4216 energy. Wind stays cross-off. This is high-end groundswell, and if you can handle the power, it’s going to be world-class.

After that, the second week gets messy. Thursday the 10th to Saturday the 12th has some marginal windows with cross-off winds and moderate swell (4ft to 7ft) but the energy and wind combinations aren’t as clean. Sunday the 13th onwards is mostly poor – strong onshore winds, lumpy conditions, and the swell goes up and down. There’s another flicker on Tuesday the 15th morning: 6ft SW, 15-second period, light offshore from the ESE at 6 mph, and excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers again. That’s your second standout, but it’s over a week away, so it’s promising but less certain.

Bottom line: If you’ve got a window, Sunday the 6th morning and Tuesday the 15th morning are your best bets. Wednesday the 9th is for the experienced crew who want to test themselves on some serious groundswell. The rest of the run is either too windy, too small, or too messy to get excited about.

Stay safe, and keep an eye on that wind.

Rusty

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