The Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the pipe for The Island.

The swell sticks around for the whole outlook, but it’s a bit of a mixed bag with wind and quality. The first real standout that gets my blood pumping lands on Tuesday, September 22, and then again at the very tail end on September 30. Those are the days to circle on the calendar.

Starting off, Wednesday September 16, The Island is already seeing a solid 6 ft SW groundswell with a 15-second period. That’s a long-period groundswell, packing moderate-to-strong wave energy (1604) but the morning has that 19 mph offshore easterly, so it’s fresh but clean. The afternoon is cross-off and still surfable at 6 ft. The swell is solid, but the scores say it’s a bit touch-and-go with the tide.

Thursday September 17 sees the swell drop to 4 ft with a 14-second period, energy down to 743. Clean in the morning with a gentle cross-off wind from the NE but it’s not blowing anyone’s hair back. By afternoon it goes cross and small, dropping to 4 ft.

Friday September 18 through to Sunday September 20 – forget it. The swell stays under 3 ft, periods are still long but the wind is onshore or messy. Combined energy is low (181 to 482). Those are the dud days.

Now, Monday September 21: early shift. The swell is only 3 ft but the wind goes light and cross-off, and combined wave energy bumps to 511. The comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” That’s a quiet, clean morning for a log or a small-wave board, but it's unlikely to be big.

The first true highlight is Tuesday morning, September 22. We’ve got 6 ft SW swell, 15-second period (big groundswell energy), combined wave energy at a robust 1260 (moderate-to-strong). The wind is moderate offshore from the E, 12 mph. That combo is heavenly for a reef like The Island: clean, well-shaped, and powerful. It’s in the “excellent for experienced surfers” zone with solid energy. Crowds are possible here, so get in early. Water temp is about average for the time of year. That morning session is the pick of the first week.

Wednesday September 23 and Thursday September 24 are smaller again, around 4-4 ft, clean but nothing special.

Friday September 25 is a gentle offshore morning – 3 ft, 12-second period, clean. Light for the reef but fun on the right board.

Saturday September 26 goes crazy: a massive long-period (21 sec) SW groundswell at 4 ft in the morning, but combined energy is 1976 (strong) and the wind is a nasty 25 mph cross-shore. It’s a messy onshore mess. By afternoon, 7 ft but same wind story. Not worth a paddle session – maybe more of a kiter’s playground.

Sunday September 27 gets even bigger: 8 ft WSW onshore wind. Combined energy hits 4367 (very strong). That’s expert-only territory if you’re brave enough, but it looks blown out.

Monday September 28: still solid at 8 ft in the morning, wind is cross-off from the SSE at 16 mph. Combo energy still high (2416). The report says marginal due to tide, but for big-wave hunters, that’s a serious ocean. Clean enough, but big.

Second standout builds toward Wednesday September 30 morning. The swell is 6 ft from the SW, 18-second period (very long-period groundswell), combined energy 2319 (strong). And the wind is light from the ESE at only 6 mph – effectively offshore, glassy. The report says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That’s it. That is the dream window. The reef will handle that long period beautifully, and with the stillness on the water, it’ll be world-class shaped.

After that, into Thursday October 1, we’re still at 5 ft, 17 sec, with moderate cross-off wind. Clean but a step down.

So, the two days to lock in: Tuesday September 22 morning, and Wednesday September 30 morning. Everything else is either too small, too windy, or too messy to be truly memorable.

Rusty.

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