The Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for The Island. It’s a reef setup, exposed to the SW, so it knows how to pull in a swell. The coming week is a battle with the wind though, and the real gems are hiding a fair way out in the forecast.

We kick off on Tuesday the 21st, but it’s a write-off. The swell is 4ft from the SW with a solid 13-second period, and the energy is moderate at 559, but the wind is a cross-shore from the north, and the water’s sitting at 60°, which is about standard for the time of year. It’s a messy, choppy mess. That afternoon and into Wednesday the 22nd, the wind swings cross-onshore and stays punchy, up to 16 mph. The swell sticks around 4-5ft, but the conditions are poor. Don’t bother.

Thursday the 23rd is where things get serious. The swell jumps to 8ft in the morning from the SW, with a period of 14 seconds, and the energy goes through the roof – 4546. That’s a lot of power. The wind is a cross-shore from the south at 16 mph, so it’s messy, but that’s a big, powerful groundswell for the experts. It’s over 8ft, so this is experienced crew only. The afternoon drops to 7ft, period 15 seconds, still huge energy at 1831, but the wind is still cross-shore and lumpy. It's marginal, but the size is there.

Friday the 24th offers a bit of a breather. The morning has 6ft from the SW, 15-second period, with energy at 1424. The wind is a light cross-shore from the south at only 6 mph, so it’s almost clean with just small ripples. That’s the best the first week gets, but it’s still a “marginal” call. The afternoon gets a bit choppier again.

Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th are back to poor conditions, with onshore winds and small, weak swell. The Sunday morning does have a window of clean cross-offshore wind from the NE at 6 mph, but the swell is only 4ft with a short 11-second period, and low energy at 291. It’s clean, but tiny.

Then we hit a long, ugly stretch. From Monday the 27th all the way through to Monday the 3rd of August, the wind is a mess – strong, cross-onshore, and lumpy. The swell fluctuates, but the conditions are poor or marginal at best. The water will be a war zone.

But here’s the standout. Mark your calendar for Tuesday the 4th of August. The morning brings 4ft from the SW with a very long period of 18 seconds, and the energy is strong at 1011. The wind is offshore from the east at 16 mph – clean, lined-up conditions. That’s a proper groundswell, perfect for a reef like this. The water will be clean, the sets will be long and powerful. It’s rated excellent for experienced surfers.

Wednesday the 5th of August is another beauty. The morning has 3ft from the SW, but the period is a massive 20 seconds, and the energy is 957. The wind is offshore from the ENE at 16 mph. It’s smaller, but that period is special – very long, very clean. The afternoon is even better for the size: 4ft, 19-second period, and a gentle offshore breeze from the ESE at 9 mph. The energy is 1144, and the conditions are rated excellent for experienced surfers. That afternoon session on Wednesday the 5th is the pick of the whole forecast.

So, the first week is mostly a fight with the wind, and there’s a big, messy swell for experts on Thursday the 23rd. The real gold is the first week of August – Tuesday the 4th and Wednesday the 5th – with clean, offshore winds and long-period groundswell. Those are the days to get excited about.

Stay patient, and don’t waste your energy on the rubbish days.

Rusty.

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