The Island Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. This is your local surf outlook from The Island, and I’m Rusty.

Right off the bat, we’ve got some serious size on the way, but the wind is going to be a battle for most of the run. The first few days are a write-off, honestly. We’re looking at Sunday the 12th and Monday the 13th with onshore winds from the west, blowing hard at 19 mph, and the swell is pumping at 7 ft to 8 ft from the SW. The energy is already high, with combined swell energy readings around 1374 to 3292, but it’s all blown out. Just a mess. Don’t bother.

Tuesday the 14th is still a struggle. The morning is cross-onshore with an 12 ft SW groundswell (period of 16 seconds) and a massive 8415 combined energy reading. That’s a lot of juice, but it’s choppy and ugly. The afternoon tries to get a little better with a cross-shore breeze, but it’s still only marginal.

Now, here’s where we get a standout. Wednesday morning the 15th is the first real window. The wind swings around to the east, light offshore at 6 mph, and we’ve got a clean 6 ft SW groundswell with a 15-second period. The combined energy is a solid 1326. The waves are going to be well-shaped, clean, and powerful. This is the best of the early run. The Island is a consistent reef break, exposed to the SW swell, and it’s going to light up. Just be aware that it’s an advanced wave, and it can get crowded – it’s an “sometimes” crowd spot, so expect company. The water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing unusual.

Thursday the 16th drops off a bit. The swell eases back to 4 ft, and it’s just marginal. Friday the 17th is similar, with a 5 ft swell but the wind is cross-off, keeping it clean. Still, it’s only a marginal call.

We hit a real dead zone from Saturday the 18th through to Tuesday the 22nd. The wind becomes a total pain, howling from the north at 22–25 mph on Saturday, with swell dropping to under 3 ft. The energy is weak (256 to 292). It’s a flat, blown-out mess. Sunday the 19th has a long-period 5 ft SW swell (19 seconds), but the wind is terrible. This stretch is a write-off for four days.

Things start to look interesting again on Wednesday the 23rd, especially the afternoon. The wind is light and cross-off from the NNE at 6 mph, and the swell jumps to 8 ft from the SW with a 18-second period. The combined energy hits 3956. This is flagged as excellent for experienced surfers. The Island is a reef, so this long-period groundswell will be perfect here, not breaking too straight. This is your second standout. It’s a big, clean, powerful swell. The morning of the 23rd is also solid but slightly smaller at 7 ft.

Thursday the 24th is a tragedy. The wind goes nuclear from the north at 28 mph, blowing cross-off. The swell is 8 ft, but it’s unsurfable. The same goes for Friday the 25th and Saturday the 26th – strong to near-gale force winds, messy, and dangerous. Sunday the 27th has an 8 ft SW swell with a gentle cross-onshore wind, but it’s only marginal.

So to wrap it up: your two best bets are Wednesday the 15th (clean, chest-to-head-high, offshore) and the afternoon of Thursday the 23rd (solid, powerful, clean). The rest of the window is either blown out, flat, or too wild. If you’re a kite surfer, the days with strong cross-onshore winds and big swell (like the 14th, 24th, 25th, 26th) will look more interesting than paddle surfing.

Rusty.

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