Rhino Head Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s talk about what’s shaping up for Rhino Head. It’s a reef break that’s fairly consistent and loves a SW swell.

The first few days are a bit of a bust. Monday the 27th and Tuesday the 28th have some decent swell – we’re looking at 7ft to 8ft of SW groundswell with a 15-second period, so there’s a lot of energy (1976 to 2278). But the wind is a cross-off, blowing 22 to 25 mph, which is just too strong for clean waves. The surf is poor and the conditions are marginal.

Wednesday the 29th, the swell is still up at 7ft in the morning (SSW, 16 seconds, energy 2717) and then 6ft in the afternoon (SSW, 15 seconds, 1664). The wind eases to 12 mph, still cross-off. It’s still a bit messy, with only marginal surf forecast.

Now, Thursday the 30th is a bright spot. The morning glass-off is the key. The wind drops to 3 mph from the ESE, going glassy, and we’ve got a 4ft SSW swell (13 seconds, moderate energy around 492) rolling in. The water temp is 59°, which is about normal for this time of year. This is the cleanest window in the first week. The surf will be small but clean, with some fun little waves for a beginner-friendly reef. The afternoon stays glassy, but the swell drops to 4ft and the conditions become more ordinary. The morning is the standout.

Friday the 31st and Saturday the 1st of August: the swell drops right off, down to 2ft to 4ft, and the wind is cross-off or cross. The energy is weak (216 to 787). The period is long (13 to 18 seconds), but the size is just too small for anything decent. Poor surf conditions.

Sunday the 2nd of August is a write-off. Rain, strong cross-off winds, and a 4ft SSW swell that’s just not coming together. Conditions are poor.

Monday the 3rd of August: the swell nudges back up to 6ft (SW, 15 seconds, 1446 energy), but the wind is cross-on from the S, only 9 mph, but it’s enough to make it choppy. Marginal at best.

The rest of the first week and into the second week is a mixed bag of small to moderate swell, but the wind is almost always wrong – cross-on, onshore, or too strong. There’s a long gap with no real quality surf.

Looking further out, around the 7th of August (Friday afternoon), the wind turns cross-off from the N, and we have a 5ft SW swell (15 seconds, 828 energy). The forecast says “expect good surf conditions,” but it’s a one-off in a long stretch of poor forecasts. It’s promising, but not a sure thing this far out.

The 8th and 9th of August see the swell holding at 4ft to 5ft, but the wind is too strong, 15 to 28 mph, making it a battle. The 9th has strong offshore winds from the WNW, which will clean up the face, but make it hard to paddle into.

The 10th of August: the wind is a near gale, 31 mph from the WSW. The swell is 6ft (SW, 15 seconds, 1528). That’s serious wind. For a reef break, it’s going to be a mess. Kite surfers might be having a field day, but for paddle surfing, it’s a no-go.

In summary, the only real window of decent, clean surf is the morning of Thursday the 30th of July. After that, it’s a long stretch of wind-affected, marginal, or poor conditions. The long-range looks a bit more promising around the 7th of August, but it’s a long way off and the wind is still a concern.

Rusty.

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