Rhino Head Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, gather 'round, folks. Rusty here. Gotta say, this stretch has got some life in it, but it's not all plain sailing. We're looking at a solid 16 days of potential, and while the start is a bit slow, there's a real standout session that's got my blood pumping.

The Outlook

Alright, we're kicking off at Rhino Head. This is a sheltered reef break, so it doesn't need a massive ocean to work. For the first part of the run, we're looking at a lot of "marginal" surf. The wave energy is up there, with a combined swell reading of 4158 (that's strong, very strong), but the wind is a problem. Monday's got a fresh 19 mph offshore breeze, which keeps it clean, but the swell is at 8 ft from the SW with a long 16-second period. That's a lot of water for a beginner spot, and the tide or some other factor is making it a bit of a dodgy affair. The water temp is sitting at 59°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Monday and Tuesday are going to be a bit of a grind. The swell stays over 7 ft from the SSW, with that same long period, and the wind is more cross-off. It's clean, but the energy is high (2975 on Tuesday morning) and the quality is just not there. It feels like it's going to be a lot of work for not a lot of reward.

Then, Wednesday morning, July 15th – that's the one. The wind swings to a glassy NNE at 3 mph, and the swell drops to a much more manageable 5 ft from the SSW. The period is still a long 15 seconds, which is great for a reef like this, giving you proper, lined-up waves. The combined energy is down to 1014, a nice moderate level. This is the standout. It's clean, glassy, and the conditions are described as "expect very good surf conditions." This is the window. The afternoon is glassy again, but the swell drops a touch, so morning is the go.

The rest of the week is a bit of a mixed bag. The wind gets a bit messy, and the swell drops off. By Saturday, July 18th, the swell is down to 3 ft, and the combined energy is a weak 277. The next few days after that are just poor. The wind is up, the swell is small, and it's a write-off. There's a long gap of a few days here with nothing to recommend.

But hold on, because on Friday, July 24th, the swell starts to build again. We're seeing 6 ft from the SW, with a 17-second period and a combined energy of 1795. The wind is cross-off, but the models are calling it "marginal" again. Saturday, July 25th, the wind is up to 25 mph, which is going to be a battle. The swell is at 6 ft, but with that wind, it's going to be a tough paddle. The last few days of the forecast show a similar story: strong wind, solid swell, but the quality is just not there to make it a top pick. It's big, but it's not clean.

So, the verdict? The clear winner is Wednesday morning, July 15th at Rhino Head. It's got the best of everything: glassy conditions, a clean swell from the right direction, and a manageable size. If you can get out there, go. After that, it's a bit of a waiting game. The end of the window on the 24th and 26th shows promise, but the wind is a big question mark. The swell is solid, but it might be more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle-in session if the wind doesn't play ball.

Rusty

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