Rhino Head Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again, looking at the same charts for Rhino Head but in feet for you. So, the next couple of weeks are mostly a waiting game. This spot is a sheltered, beginner-friendly reef, but for most of this run, the wind is going to ruin things. We've got a long dry spell from Sunday, July 26th, all the way into early August. The one shining moment is out there over a week away, and it's a proper gem if we can hold out.

Water temp at Rhino Head is about 59°, which is dead average for this time of year, nothing weird.

Alright, from the top. Sunday the 26th kicks off with a 3ft SW swell, period a decent 12 seconds. The combined energy is moderate (227), but the waves are "surfable but very ordinary." Light offshore wind in the morning keeps it clean, but it's just small and weak. Afternoon improves slightly with a gentle offshore, but you're still looking at knee-high dribble.

Monday the 27th is a total loss. The swell bumps up a touch, but a fresh to strong breeze from the NNW and NW makes for poor surf. By the afternoon, it's a howling 25 mph offshore. The swell is still only 4ft, with moderate energy (280). It’s clean, but so windy you'll be paddling in place and can't get in.

Tuesday the 28th gets interesting in a bad way. The swell jumps to 7ft in the morning and 8ft in the afternoon, both from the SW, with a very long 15-second period. The energy is strong to very strong (2102 and 2527). But the wind is a nasty cross-offshore at 25-28 mph. Conditions are marginal. That's a lot of power for a sheltered reef, and with that wind, it's going to be a bumpy mess. This is expert territory for size, and with that cross-off wind, this setup looks more fun for kite surfing than paddling. The period is so long that on a reef, the sets will juice up big time, but you'll be fighting the wind every second.

Wednesday the 29th through the end of the week is a slow bleed. Swell drops back under 7ft, but the wind stays a moderate cross-shore from the SSW, bringing a cross-chop. Energy stays moderate (1365-394). The waves are marginal at best.

Saturday the 1st and Sunday the 2nd of August are poor. A moderate to fresh breeze from the north messes everything up. The swell is small, 3ft to 4ft, with moderate energy. Not worth the drive.

Now, Monday the 3rd of August shows a flicker. A fresh offshore wind from the NW kicks in, and the swell builds to 7ft in the afternoon from the SW, with a 14-second period. Energy is strong (2187). The score lifts a bit, but it's still labeled marginal. This is the bridge to the good stuff.

And then we get the real moment. Wednesday the 5th of August. The finder says "expect very good surf conditions." The wind goes glassy in the morning, dead calm. In the afternoon, a light offshore from the WNW. The swell is a solid 5ft from the SW, with a very long 17-second period in the morning and 16 seconds in the afternoon. Energy is strong (1344 and 1172). This is it. The glassy morning is the call. The reef will groom that long-period groundswell into clean, lined-up waves. The direction is spot on. This is a classic. The waves will have real push and shape. It's not huge, so it's open to competent beginners, but the quality will be top-notch. If crowds are around (it says "sometimes" for crowds), expect a few locals on it.

After that, the wind picks up again. Thursday the 6th and Friday the 7th of August see a fresh breeze and poor conditions. Saturday the 8th is similar, with a small, weak swell. By Sunday the 9th, it's a strong 25 mph wind and a tiny 2ft swell with a 21-second period – a long wait for a tiny blown-out wave.

Finally, Monday the 10th of August brings a moderate cross-shore and a bump in swell to 5-6ft from the SW with a very long 16-23 second period. Energy is very strong (2022-4196). But the cross-shore will chop it up. It's a promising long-range call, but the wind is the wild card. That period is silly long, which on a reef can be epic if the stars align, but with cross-chop, it's a punt.

The bottom line: the next week and a half is mostly a waste of gas. The only day that screams "go surfing" is Wednesday the 5th of August, especially the glassy dawn patrol. That's your window. After that, the forecast gets hazy, but Monday the 10th has some serious potential if the wind cleans up – you just can't trust it yet.

Stay stoked, and keep your eyes peeled for that Wednesday session.

Rusty.

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