Chinamans Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, lookin’ at the ol’ 16-day crystal ball for one of our go-to reef setups. There’s definitely swell on the horizon, but we’ve got a bit of a bumpy ride to get there.

First thing to call out: the water temp at Chinamans is sittin’ at 59°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no need to hunt for extra rubber just yet.

Alright, let’s get into it. The week kicks off proper on Sunday, August 2nd. The morning’s a write-off thanks to a chilly 35 km/h NNW howler, but the swell’s already pushin’ 6ft from the SW at 16 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy (1405). By Sunday afternoon, the wind swings to a cross-off from the W, still fresh but cleaner. The swell jumps to a meaty 8ft out of the WSW (3324). That’s a touch on the big side, more for the lads who know their way around the reef.

Monday, August 3rd, keeps the 8ft SW/WSW swell pumping but the wind drops to 25 km/h from the SW, putting it straight cross-shore and a bit bumpy (4459 on Monday arvo). It’s surfable but messy.

Tuesday, August 4th, is where we start to see some real promise. The morning is a no-go with a light onshore, but Tuesday afternoon? Glassy. Dead calm, 0 km/h wind, and a clean 4ft SW swell at 15 seconds (865). That is as good as it gets for a session – no wind, clean lines, and the reef workin’ its magic. This is a standout.

Wednesday, August 5th, the morning sees small 3ft swell but a 19-second period – very long groundswell. Not much size but incredible energy. The afternoon gets a nice 4ft with an 18-second period and a solid NW offshore (1103). Another top-notch window for the crew who like it clean and lined up.

The rest of the first week stays tidy. Thursday morning, August 6th, is clear with a light NNW offshore and 4ft SW swell (990), glassy and fun. Friday, August 7th, the swell bumps up to 8ft out of the SW (2800), but you’ve got a 25 km/h NNE cross-off wind that’ll keep things clean enough for the experienced. Saturday, August 8th, is a bit of a gamble – a wild 50 km/h N offshore makes paddling a nightmare, even if the 7ft swell looks tempting (1954). Sunday, August 9th, we get smashed by a 50-40 km/h SW cross-wind and a massive 12ft swell (6207 arvo). That’s all sorts of ugly. Kite surfers might be frothin’, but for a paddle surfer, you’re better off havin’ a beer.

Now we hit the second week, and this is where it gets interesting for the real heavy hitters. Monday, August 10th, the swell peaks at 15ft from the SW (14323) – that’s a beast. The wind is a moderate cross-shore, so it’s gonna be a heap of raw power, only for the absolute experts.

The true standout of the entire outlook is Tuesday, August 11th. Morning sees a clear sky, 12ft of SW groundswell at 16 seconds (5335), and a light NNE cross-off breeze. It’s clean, it’s big, and the period is perfect for this reef – that’s a day to call in sick.

Wednesday, August 12th, keeps the 12-13ft size with moderate cross-off winds, but you’re gettin’ a bit of chop. Thursday, August 13th, the swell is still 12-13ft with a strong NNW offshore up to 40 km/h. It’ll be clean but a bloody mission to paddle into. Friday, August 14th, the wind swings wild again, a 60 km/h W cross-off, then a WSW cross-shore, and the surf just turns to slop and danger. Saturday, August 15th, through Sunday, August 16th, is a write-off. The swell drops to 8-10ft, but strong SW cross-onshore winds ruin it (6168 on Saturday arvo). Monday, August 17th, the wind eases to a light cross-onshore, and the 7-8ft swell returns with a 14-second period (2557), but the quality is just marginal.

To sum it up: the very best windows are the glassy Tuesday afternoon, August 4th, with 4ft, and the clean, groundswell goodness of Wednesday afternoon, August 5th. For the big-wave legends, that Tuesday morning, August 11th, with 12ft and clean conditions is the payoff after a week of wind. Get on it.

Rusty.

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