Chinamans Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, this is Rusty. We’re looking at a tricky two and a half weeks at Chinamans. The standout window is the morning of the 11th, but after that we’ve got a long rough patch until things maybe tidy up again around the 23rd. Let’s break it down.

The first shot is Tuesday morning, the 11th. Swell is 6ft from the southwest with a 14-second period. The water temp is 59°, which is about normal for this time of year. Combined wave energy is churning at 1402 (moderate energy) and the wind is a fresh 22 mph offshore from the NNW. It’s clean, but the forecast calls it marginal – it’s a goer for experienced surfers only, given the size and that it’s a reef setup. Afternoon stays clean with 5ft southwest swell, period stretching to 18 seconds. The sets will have some gaps, typical for a longer period groundswell, but the shape on a reef like this should be decent.

Wednesday the 12th sees the swell jump to a solid 10ft from the SW with a 17-second period, combined energy spiking to 8602 in the morning. That’s strong wave energy, but the wind swings to a fresh 19 mph cross-shore, creating lumpy cross-chop. This is big, powerful, and messy – only for expert paddlers or maybe kite surfers if they’re keen. Afternoon stays big and lumpy.

Thursday the 13th holds 10ft SW swell (16-second period, combined energy 4136), but cross-shore winds continue. The afternoon offers a slight improvement with cross-offshore winds at 12 mph cleaning things up a bit, but it’s still solid and challenging.

Friday the 14th drops slightly to 10ft in the morning (cross-onshore) and 8ft in the afternoon, but winds are onshore, creating ripples and chop. Saturday and Sunday the 15th–16th see the swell easing slowly (8ft down to 6ft) but with moderate cross-onshore winds and a fairly choppy surface. Not worth rushing out.

Monday the 17th through Wednesday the 19th we drop further to 5ft then 3ft, combined energy falling to 355 by Wednesday afternoon. Winds are cross-offshore and clean, but there’s just not enough push – poor surf.

Thursday the 20th afternoon offers a bit of a pulse: 6ft SW swell, 17-second period, combined energy 1795, with a moderate 12 mph offshore wind from the north. Clean and rideable for experienced guys, but still marginal according to the forecast.

Then Friday the 21st gets ugly – fresh onshore winds, lumpy, poor surf.

Saturday the 22nd brings a new 8ft swell from the SSW in the morning (period 14 seconds, energy 2948), but it’s cross-onshore and fairly choppy. Afternoon goes 10ft but with onshore wind and a short 9-second period – messy, and the period is too short for good shape.

Now the real potential: Sunday the 23rd afternoon. The swell is 5ft from the southwest, 12-second period, combined energy 1193, and the wind goes glassy – 3 mph from ENE. That’s as clean as it gets. The forecast calls it excellent for experienced surfers. That’s our second standout, and the best glassy window in the whole run. Monday the 24th afternoon also shows 6ft with a 19-second period and clean cross-offshore winds (energy 2411), which is promising, and Tuesday the 25th holds 6ft with clean winds. The last few days from the 23rd onward are the best bet for a proper session, but remember that’s a long way out – promising but less certain.

Overall, don’t get too excited about the first few days unless you’re an expert. The middle of the outlook is rough. Keep an eye on the 23rd afternoon for glassy conditions.

Rusty.

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