Chinamans Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, get the wax out. We’re looking at Chinamans—a reef break, advanced only, fairly consistent, and exposed to the west. Swell is coming from the southwest, which suits it fine. Water temp is around average for this time of year, nothing weird.

Start on Sunday, July 5th. There’s a solid 8ft southwest swell rolling in with a 17-second period—that’s proper groundswell. But the wind is cross-shore from the ENE at 16 mph, and the surface is messy. The combined energy is high at 3587 (moderate-to-strong), but the surf quality is only marginal. Not a goer.

Sunday afternoon: 7ft SSW swell, onshore wind, total chop. Forget it.

Monday the 6th: smaller 5ft SW swell in the morning, still cross-shore. Bumpy. Afternoon is worse.

Tuesday the 7th stays small—4 to 5ft SW—with cross-shore wind and marginal conditions.

Here’s where it gets real. Wednesday the 8th morning: 8ft SW swell with an 18-second period, and the wind turns cross-off from the NE at just 9 mph. Clean faces, energy reading 3483 (strong). Good session for the experienced crew.

Wednesday afternoon is even better. Wind drops to 6 mph from the NNE, still cross-off, swell holds at 7ft SW with 16 seconds. The combined energy is 2326 (moderate-to-strong) and it’s clean. This, right here, is the highlight of the first week. Get in the water.

Thursday the 9th: clean again. Morning runs 5ft SW with 15 seconds, barely any wind. Thursday afternoon is glassy—4ft SW at 15 seconds, dead calm. Perfect for smooth lines and smaller crowds.

Friday the 10th: offshore wind from the NNW at 12–16 mph. Swell sits at 6–7ft SW, 15 seconds, clean and powerful. Solid day.

Saturday the 11th: forget it. Rain and strong SW winds at 28 mph. Messy and dangerous.

Sunday the 12th: big 8ft SW swell returns, but wind is cross-shore most of the day. Afternoon gets cleaner but still marginal.

Monday the 13th: morning is average with 7ft SSW at 19 seconds, energy 4673 (strong). But the afternoon? That’s 12ft SW at 19 seconds with energy of 8276—very strong. That’s big, long-period groundswell. Only experts should even think about it.

Tuesday the 14th: morning clean with 8ft SW (16 seconds, 3177 energy), then the afternoon turns into thunderstorms and messy chop.

Wednesday the 15th: 8ft SW at 16 seconds, cross-off by afternoon, clean but not a standout.

Thursday the 16th: rain and wind, swell down to about 6ft SW. Poor.

Friday the 17th: swell drops below 3ft. Not worth it.

Saturday the 18th: the swell comes back to 8ft SW, but the onshore wind ruins the surface.

And here’s the final big moment: Sunday the 19th of July. Morning is 10ft SW at 17 seconds, with cross-shore wind, but afternoon goes huge—12ft SW with a massive 21-second period. Combine that with light cross-off wind and you’ve got a combined energy of 12473—very strong. That is a genuine big-wave session for experts only. Then Monday the 20th still has 10ft SW but the wind turns onshore, spoiling it.

So if you’re asking me where to paddle out: Wednesday the 8th afternoon is the sweet spot for clean, strong waves without going huge. And Sunday the 19th afternoon is the big one if you’re ready for the size. All the other days are either waiting for the wind to cooperate or just plain messy.

Rusty.

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