Chinamans Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s look at what’s coming down the pike for us.

We’ve got a solid run of surf on the way, starting this Wednesday morning and running through to the following Tuesday. The standout period is the first few days, with a powerful, long-period groundswell from the SW pushing some serious energy onto the exposed reefs. The water temp is sitting at 60°F, which is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

The first call is Chinamans (reef, advanced) . This is where the action is. Wednesday morning is firing: a clean 7ft SW swell with a 15-second period, light offshore wind from the N, and a combined energy reading of 1941. That’s some serious grunt. It’s dialled in for experienced surfers. The afternoon holds up just as well with a 7ft SW swell and 14-second period, still offshore and clean. This is the pick of the week. The whole stretch from Wednesday through Friday is exceptional, with Thursday afternoon seeing the energy peak at 2133 with a 16-second period, all under offshore winds. Friday holds strong too, with 6ft to 6ft SW swells and long periods. This is a top-tier run—long, clean lines, plenty of power, and the reef will handle that long period beautifully. Expect the crew to be out, so that “sometimes” crowd label is likely to be a reality.

We start to see a drop-off on Saturday the 18th. The swell backs down to 4ft, energy drops to 547, and the wind goes cross-offshore. It’s still a clean wave, but the punch is gone. Sunday the 19th is a mixed bag: morning is marginal with a 3ft swell, but the afternoon sees a weird spike in period to 18 seconds with a 3ft swell and 666 energy. That’s a quirky, clean, offshore wind setup, but it’s small.

The first week of the second week, from Monday the 20th to Tuesday the 21st, offers a solid rebound. We’re looking at 4ft to 5ft SW swells with moderate offshore winds and energy readings in the 760-810 range. Very good, clean conditions, but nothing compared to the opening blast.

Then things get ugly. From Wednesday the 22nd, the wind swings around and brings poor conditions. The 23rd and 24th of July get a big injection of swell, pushing 8ft, but with strong cross-onshore winds from the S, it’s a complete mess. The energy is huge—up to 2962—but the surface will be chopped up and unruly. That’s not paddle surfing; that’s kite territory, if anything.

The final few days, from the 26th to the 30th, fade into small, clean(ish) waves. A glassy morning on the 27th with a 3ft swell and 12-second period is worth a look if you’re desperate, and the 28th sees a flat calm morning with a 3ft glassy wave. The last day, the 30th, has a weird 2ft swell with a 24-second period—a very long period grinder that will barely break on a reef, but it’s there.

Best bet: Get out there Wednesday the 15th through Friday the 17th. That’s your window. Everything else is a compromise.

Rusty.

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