Chinamans Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. We’ve got a solid run of surf coming up at Chinamans, but this one’s for advanced crew only—it’s a reef break, and it demands respect. The big news is a long-period SW groundswell that’s gonna be pumping through the first week, with combined wave energy hitting strong to very strong levels (6395, 7760). Water temp is sitting at 60°, which is spot on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Monday 13 July is the kick-off, and it’s a mixed bag. Morning sees some clouds with a fresh W breeze at 22 mph blowing cross-off, making the 10ft SW swell (16-second period) look clean. The energy is massive (6395). It’s a big, powerful wave—over 8ft, so experts only. Afternoon stays similar with 12ft SW swell and even more energy (7760), but that wind is still fresh, so it’s a bit of a wrestle. Still, the standout for Monday is the afternoon—thick, long-period groundswell with clean-ish conditions.

Tuesday 14 July is a write-off. Morning is a no-go with cross-on SW winds and messy surf. Afternoon has a gentle cross-shore breeze and some chop, but it’s only marginal. Skip it.

Now, Wednesday 15 July is where it gets real good. Morning is clear with a light N breeze at 6 mph blowing cross-off, and the swell settles to 7ft SW (15-second period). The energy is still moderate (1941), but it’s clean and cracking for experienced surfers. Afternoon is the absolute gem—glass conditions with a whisper of NNW wind at 3 mph, and 7ft SW swell (14 seconds). That’s the best on offer early on: clean, lined-up, and just proper. Crowds are sometimes around, so you might have company.

Thursday 16 July keeps the good run going. Morning with a gentle NNE breeze cross-off, 6ft SW swell (15 seconds), and clean surf. Afternoon is similar with 7ft SW swell, light N breeze, and clean conditions. Energy is moderate (1563, 1785). This is consistent, quality stuff for the experienced surfer.

Friday 17 July is still decent. Morning has a gentle NNE breeze cross-off, 6ft SW swell (16 seconds), and clean waves. Afternoon follows with 6ft SW swell and gentle N breeze. Good, but not a standout.

By Saturday 18 July, the swell drops off. Morning is 4ft SW with a moderate NNE breeze, and it’s only marginal. Afternoon is even smaller at 4ft SW. Not worth the paddle.

Sunday 19 July sees a pulse of new life. The morning is scruffy with 3ft SW swell, but the afternoon is a surprise—moderate offshore N breeze at 9 mph, 5ft SW swell (18-second period), and clean. Energy jumps to 2623. That’s a solid, clean wave.

Monday 20 July has a moderate offshore N breeze all day. Morning is 6ft SW (15 seconds) and clean, afternoon bumps to 7ft SW. Both are clean, but the afternoon is getting bigger again—over 7ft, so experts only.

Tuesday 21 July is a drop-off. Fresh NNE winds make things messy. Morning is marginal, afternoon is poor. Stay home.

Wednesday 22 July is a wild one. Strong offshore NW winds at 28 mph in the morning, 5ft SW swell, but the wind is so strong it’s hard to paddle into. Afternoon has near-gale WNW winds at 34 mph and rain showers—total mess. Not for surfing, maybe more of a kite show.

The standout of the whole outlook is actually later in the week. Thursday 23 July afternoon: some clouds, gentle WNW breeze, 6ft SW swell (19-second period), and energy ramps up to 3407. It’s clean, long-period, and excellent for experienced surfers. That’s the one to circle.

Friday 24 July brings a bigger swell back—10ft SW in the morning (18 seconds, energy 5074) and 8ft SW in the afternoon. That’s expert territory, and it’s clean, but the size is serious.

From Saturday 25 July onward, it gets messy. Winds pick up, rain shows up, and the swell drops off into the 5ft–6ft range with lumpy cross-chop. The last clear standout is that Thursday 23 July afternoon.

Overall, the first week has the best runs, with Wednesday 15 July afternoon and Thursday 23 July afternoon as the true standouts. After that, it’s a gap of marginal days leading into the second week. Crowds are possible at Chinamans, so get in early. For the advanced crew, this is a real treat.

Rusty.

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