Chinamans Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into the 16-day outlook for Chinamans. This is a reef break that demands respect—it’s an advanced wave, and it’s a fairly consistent setup. The water is a standard 61°, so nothing unusual for the time of year.

The first real chance to get out will be Saturday morning, July 4th. The swell will be a solid 6ft out of the southwest, and the wind is going to be glassy—just a slight air moving. That’s a gorgeous scenario for a reef break, with clean, lined-up sets. The period is a long 14 seconds, so the waves will have plenty of punch and shape. The combined energy is moderate at 1403, so it’s not a full-on assault, but it’s a beautiful setup for a Saturday morning solo session.

The following Saturday, July 11th, things get a bit dicey. The onshore winds start to pick up and the swell drops to 4ft from the southwest with a 14-second period. The combined energy is weak at 984, and it’s just not going to be that clean. Thursday morning, July 16th, is a bit of a redemption. The swell is back up to 6ft from the southwest with a 14-second period, and the wind is cross-off from the northeast. The combined energy is 1481, and the waves will be clean. But it’s not the standout.

The real standout is Saturday morning, July 4th. The glassy conditions, the 6ft southwest swell at 14 seconds—it’s a clean, reef-special wave. The crowds are noted as “sometimes,” so you might have a few others out there, but it’s worth it. The second best is Thursday afternoon, July 9th, with a 4ft southwest swell, a 14-second period, and a light cross-off breeze. The combined energy is 1407, and it’s cleaner than most, so a solid afternoon session.

There’s a long gap after July 4th with no real standouts until the second week. The period from July 11th through July 15th is mostly messy with cross-on winds and lumpy conditions. The swell is big, but it’s blown out, so it’s more of a look-see than a paddle-out. The combined energy gets up to 8727 on Tuesday afternoon, July 14th, but it’s just a lot of chop. That’s a kite-surfing setup, not a paddle-surfing one.

By Friday morning, July 17th, the swell drops to 3ft from the southwest with a 12-second period, and the combined energy is weak at 377. It’s not going to be much. Saturday, July 18th, has a fresh 4ft southwest swell with an 18-second period, and the wind is offshore from the NNW. The combined energy is moderate at 1104, but it’s a long-range call, so it’s promising but not certain.

So, to wrap it up: Saturday morning, July 4th, is your best bet. Glassy, clean, and a solid southwest swell. After that, it’s a bit of a wait until the second week, but the long-range stuff on July 18th could be something special if the forecast holds.

Stay frothy,
Rusty

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