Chinamans Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right off the bat, the ocean’s looking a bit grumpy, but there’s some real sparkle hiding in the forecast if you’re willing to wait for it. Chinamans is the spot on the radar, and while the week ahead has a few rough edges, the back half of the window is where the magic starts to line up.

The early days – Monday through Wednesday – are messy. We’ve got swell running 5ft to 8ft, but the wind is cross-shore or cross-on, and there’s a consistent cross-chop that’ll have you fighting for clean lines. The energy’s moderate (919 to 2630 in the combined swell readings), but the quality just isn’t there. Water temp’s sitting at 59°F, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. Tuesday morning’s got a bit of size – 8ft – but it’s onshore and sloppy, and honestly, it’s not worth the paddle.

Thursday’s when things start to turn. The morning’s still a bit cross, but the afternoon is pure glass – 5ft of southwest swell, 14-second period, and the wind goes dead calm. That’s clean, fun, and the kind of session that reminds you why you love this place. Friday’s got a similar vibe, with offshore winds and 4ft to 4ft, though the swell’s dropping. The period jumps to 17 seconds on Friday morning – proper groundswell – but at beach breaks, that long interval can make things a bit walled. Still, Chinamans is a reef, so it should handle it nicely.

Saturday’s a bit of a write-off – swell’s tiny, 2ft, and the wind’s fresh offshore but not doing much for the waves. Sunday picks back up with 5ft, but the afternoon gets a bit lumpy as the wind swings cross. That’s where the energy starts building though – we’re seeing the first hints of something bigger.

And here’s the standout – Monday the 21st. Glassy conditions, 7ft of southwest swell, and the period’s sitting at 13 seconds in the morning, stretching to 16 seconds by the afternoon. This is the kind of day that’s got real power behind it. Moderate to strong energy (1374 to 2543), and the winds are dead calm or near-glass all day. For experienced surfers, this is the call. The size is pushing past beginner territory – over 5ft – so if you’re not comfortable in that range, give it a miss. But for those who know what they’re doing, it’s clean, consistent, and firing.

Tuesday the 22nd drops back a touch to 6ft to 6ft, with cross-off winds keeping it clean. Solid, but not as electric as the day before. Then we get a lull Wednesday the 23rd – 3ft to 4ft – before Thursday the 24th brings back a nice 4ft to 5ft with light winds and clean faces. Good fun, but not headline material.

Now, here’s where the forecast gets properly interesting. Saturday the 26th starts with 5ft and the period jumps to 22 seconds – that’s very long period groundswell, which means serious energy. The morning’s light cross-on with small ripples, scoring a 4 out of 10 on the quality meter, but the afternoon blows out – 10ft and cross-onshore chop. That size is over the 8ft mark, so it’s expert territory only, and the wind’s making it messy. Sunday the 27th is similar – big, but lumpy and onshore. Monday the 28th is even worse, with 25 mph cross-on winds and the swell staying over 8ft. That’s a kitesurfing kind of day, not a paddle day.

The real sleeper is Tuesday the 29th. The morning’s still a bit cross, but the afternoon is where it’s at – 6ft of southwest swell, 16-second period, and clean, cross-off winds. Scored as excellent for experienced surfers, and you can feel it in the numbers – strong energy (1901). If you’ve been waiting for that one clean, powerful session, this could be it.

So, bottom line: the first week’s mostly about picking your windows, and Thursday and Friday are your best early bets. But if you can hold out, Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 29th are the standouts – glassy, powerful, and clean. Just keep an eye on the size – anything over 8ft is for the experts only.

Rusty.

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