The Bowl Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, let’s have a proper look at The Bowl. This is an advanced reef set-up, and it’s fairly consistent, so when the stars align, it can be a gem. The water temp is sitting a bit warmer than usual for this time of year—nothing extreme, but noticeable if you’re used to the norm here. We’re looking at a 16-day window, and there’s a bit of a slow start, but some real promise later on.

First up, Saturday July 4th morning. We’ve got a cloudy sky with a cross-off breeze from the southwest at 9 mph, keeping things reasonably clean. Swell is coming from the west at 6 ft with a 10-second period, and the combined energy is in the moderate zone (561). This is the best early call—expect very good surf conditions. The bowl should be running nicely, with that west swell wrapping in. No complaints from me. The afternoon goes downhill fast though—wind swings west and cranks up to 19 mph, making a mess of things. Skip it.

Sunday the 5th is a write-off. Morning has small 4 ft swell and cross conditions; afternoon is onshore and weak. Not worth paddling out.

Monday the 6th is ordinary—small 2 ft to 3 ft west swell, short period at 8 seconds, weak energy (104). Just flat, really.

Tuesday the 7th sees a jump in size—6 ft from the west in the morning but with strong 16 mph cross winds. Afternoon settles a bit with 9 mph cross breezes, but the swell is still lumpy (570 energy). Marginal at best. Wednesday the 8th is similar: 6 ft west swell with cross winds. Not the clean stuff you want on a reef.

Thursday the 9th morning is a tease—dead calm, glassy conditions, but the swell is only 3 ft with weak energy (185). Surfable but nothing to get excited about. Friday the 10th is poor, with dropping swell.

Now, the standout. Tuesday July 14th morning. This is the one to circle. Clear skies, a glassy east-northeast breeze at 3 mph, and a solid 6 ft west swell with a 9-second period. Combined energy is strong (634). Expect very good surf conditions. The bowl will be clean, powerful, and barrelling at times. If you’re advanced, this is your session. Crowds can show up sometimes, but with this quality, it’s worth braving. The afternoon stays decent with 6 ft and cross winds, but the morning is the magic window.

Wednesday July 15th morning drops off with 6 ft swell but a cross-on breeze from the north-northwest, and the period shortens to 7 seconds—messy. After that, the forecast fades into weak, short-period swell and onshore winds through to the end of the 16-day run. Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th are poor.

So, the story is simple: a slow first week, then one firing morning on July 14th. Don’t sleep on it.

Rusty

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