The Bowl Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's talk about The Bowl. It's a reef setup, so it's a bit more of a specialist wave, and this forecast is a real story of two halves. We’ve got a long, dry spell of poor conditions to start, before a potential window of magic opens up if we're patient.

The water temp is sitting right around 55°, which is pretty much what you'd expect for this time of year. Nothing unusual there.

Honestly, the first week and a half is a write-off. From Wednesday the 15th right through to about the 24th of July, it's just one messy, onshore script after another. You'll see a bit of swell, with energy ranging from a weak 30 (km/h? no, just a number) to a moderate 181, but the wind is all wrong. It's cross-onshore or onshore nearly every day, and the wave comment is consistently "poor surf conditions". Nothing to get excited about.

Then, on the morning of Saturday the 25th, we get a little flicker of hope. A tiny 2ft swell from the west, but the wind goes glassy in the afternoon. The energy is only 94, so it's weak, but it's clean. Still, it's just "surfable waves but very ordinary". Sunday the 26th morning is even glassier, with no wind at all, but again, small and weak (82 energy).

The real turnaround starts to show on Monday the 28th of July. The swell jumps to a solid 5ft from the west-northwest, with a moderate energy of 490. The morning is glassy—that's a huge positive. That's a proper swell and clean conditions. The Bowl will be working, but it's a reef, so that west-northwest direction is pulling in some power. The period is 10 seconds, so it's a decent groundswell, not too long, not too short. It'll be a good one, but the afternoon turns onshore, so you want to be on it first thing.

But the absolute standout, the one to circle on your calendar, is Tuesday the 29th of July. The morning sees a 6ft swell from the west with a period of 11 seconds, and the wind is a clean cross-off from the southeast. The energy is a solid 649. Then the afternoon gets even better: the wind switches to a clean offshore from the south-southeast, with a 5ft west swell. The energy is 546, and the report says "expect very good surf conditions". That is the magic window. The Bowl loves an offshore, and that west swell is bang on from its optimum direction. It's advanced only, and crowds are "sometimes" possible, so you might have to share.

So, the call is: forget the first ten days. The week leading into the end of July is where it's at. The morning of the 28th is a solid runner-up, but the 29th is the true standout. Get ready for a good one.

Rusty.

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