Tawharanui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Tawharanui’s got cookin’ for the next couple weeks. I’ll be straight with you—this stretch is a tough one. We’re looking at a long, quiet run with not a whole lot to get excited about. The forecast is pretty bare for the first week and a half, so temper those expectations.

The pattern over the next 16 days is mostly small, weak swell with a lot of clean but tiny conditions. The only real pulse of energy shows up in the second week, around the 10th of September, with a bit more size and a moderate cross-off wind that might just tidy things up for an afternoon session. But even then, it’s not firing.

Let’s break it down. Starting now, from the 30th of August right through to the 8th of September, it’s a desert of poor surf. Swell heights bounce between 1.0 ft and 4 ft, but the energy is weak—mostly double-digit readings in the 12 to 248 range, which tells you there’s nothing pushing through with any authority. The wind is often clean, offshore or cross-off, which is a tease because the waves just aren’t there. On the morning of the 30th, there’s a 4 ft NNE swell (248 energy units), but the wind is howling at 22 mph from the southwest, and the surf quality comment is just “poor.” Not worth paddling out.

The beginning of September is the same story. Tiny 1.0 ft to 2 ft swells, very low energy (12 to 46 units), and clean but gutless. The afternoon of the 3rd brings a short-period 2 ft NNW swell, but it’s weak and unexciting. The 4th has some cross-shore chop with a risk of thunderstorms—definitely not what you want.

We hit a dry patch with no real recommendation until the 9th of September. Wednesday the 9th morning shows a 5 ft NNW swell (259 energy units) with a clean cross-off wind, but it’s still marked as poor surf conditions. The 10th of September—Thursday—is where the one and only standout sits. Tawharanui on the 10th afternoon brings a 6 ft NNW groundswell with a period of 8 seconds and energy jumping to 589 units. The wind swings offshore from the WSW at 16 mph, giving us a moderate offshore and clean look. The score nudges up to a 2 out of 10, which is the best we’ve got. For a beach and reef setup like Tawharanui, that offshore wind will be a blessing. The 6 ft swell is solid but not huge, so it’s still manageable for most. Just know that the swell direction is NNW, which isn’t the optimum NE direction this spot prefers, so it might be a bit wonky on the reef.

From Friday the 11th onward, it drops right back down. The 11th has a 3 ft swell (187 energy units) that fades fast, and by the 12th we’re back to 1 ft and 37 energy units with clean offshore wind but no muscle. The last few days, the 13th and 14th of September, are tiny—0.7 ft to 1 ft with long periods (10-11 seconds) but almost no energy. Those long-period swells at a beach and reef break can be too straight, and with no size, it’s a flat spell.

Water temp isn’t flagged with an anomaly here, so it’s about average for the time of year. No crowds mentioned in the data for these poor conditions, but when it’s this small, Tawharanui won’t be busy anyway.

To sum it up: the first week and a half is dead. The only flicker of hope is the afternoon of Thursday the 10th of September, with a 6 ft NNW swell, offshore wind, and moderate energy. That’s your best bet in this whole 16-day window. Everything else is a wash. Keep an eye on that date, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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