Tawharanui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Right, straight up – I’ve got to be honest with you. This outlook for the next 16 days is a tough one. There’s a big, lonely gap at the start with absolutely nothing to get excited about. The whole run from now through to early October is looking flat or very small, with only one brief window offering anything close to a wave.

We start with nothing. From Thursday the 3rd to Sunday the 6th, we’re looking at tiny, weak energy – combined swell energy is in the single digits and teens (14-19). Swell heights are at 0.7 ft or 2 ft with short periods. The wind is either cross or cross-off for the most part, but there’s just no swell to work with. It’s all poor surf conditions, so don’t bother paddling out.

We get a little spike on Monday the 7th. The swell bumps up to 6 ft from the north with an 8-second period and combined energy of a moderate 379, but the forecast is riddled with a risk of thunderstorms. It’s messy. The morning shows cross-shore winds, and the afternoon is cross-off but only gets a 1/10 score. Tawharanui faces north-east, so that north swell is okay, but the short period and wind won’t make it great. It’s a marginal call at best.

Then from Tuesday the 8th onwards, the bottom falls out again. We’re looking at days of tiny 0.3 ft to 1 ft swells. The combined energy drops right back to the teens and twenties (13-64). The winds are often offshore from the southwest, which would be good for Tawharanui if there was any swell. But there isn’t. That offshore wind is just going to make the water look pretty, not surfable. There are long gaps of several days here where it’s just flat and useless.

The best bet, and it’s a weak bet at that, comes right at the tail end. On Thursday the 17th of September, we have the strongest offshore flow of the whole run – a light breeze from the west-southwest at 6 mph, expected to be clean. The swell is only 2 ft from the north-northwest with a short 6-second period and combined energy of 33. It’s not much, but it’s the best of a bad bunch. For a complete beginner, those tiny clean waves might be playable, but for anyone else, it’s a flat session.

So, to sum it up: there’s one marginal day on the 7th that might offer a sloppy, stormy knee-high wave, and one clean but tiny day on the 17th. The rest is a long, flat stretch. Keep your board waxed, but don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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