Tawharanui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's on offer at Tawharanui over the next couple of weeks.

Well, to be honest, the outlook is pretty grim for a good chunk of it. We've got a real flat spell on the way for Tawharanui, and the windows of decent surf are few and far between. The water temp here is sitting at 60°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

There’s a tiny pulse of energy on Wednesday the 8th of July. The swell is a weak 2ft from the east, with a short period of 7 seconds, and the energy is pretty feeble (96). But, we get a clean, moderate offshore wind from the SSW, so it might be worth a paddle for the beginners. It’s not going to blow anyone away, but it’s surfable.

After that, it’s basically a write-off. From Thursday the 9th through to about Monday the 13th, it’s all poor surf conditions. We see a few days of clean conditions with some cross-offshore winds, but the swell is tiny, mostly 1ft to 2ft, and the wave energy is very low. You’ll be sitting there bobbing around more than surfing.

Now, there is a glimmer of hope. On Tuesday the 14th of July, we get a bit of a shift. A small 3ft northeast swell shows up with a weak 6-second period, but the wind goes offshore from the WSW. It’s clean, but the energy is still low (52), so it’s only for those who just want to get wet.

The real standout, and this is a long way out, so take it with a grain of salt, is around Friday the 17th of July. On Friday morning, we see a jump to a 6ft swell from the north, with a period of 6 seconds, and a moderate cross-shore wind. The wave energy cranks up to 259 (moderate). The afternoon gets a bit better with a clean, cross-offshore wind from the west and a 5ft swell, hitting 337 wave energy. This is the best on offer across the whole forecast. It’s a north swell, heading into a NE exposure, so it should wrap into the bay okay. It’s a bit of a junky period, but the size and clean wind make it the pick. Saturday the 18th hangs in there with a 4ft north swell and a bit more energy (221), but it’s not quite as clean.

From Sunday the 19th onwards, it deteriorates quickly. We get strong, messy cross-shore winds and lumpy conditions through to the end of the forecast on Thursday the 23rd. There is a 6ft swell on Tuesday the 21st, but the wind is a fresh cross-onshore, making it a choppy, lumpy mess. That setup at a beach and reef break like Tawharanui would be more interesting for the kite crew than paddle surfers.

So, the honest truth? The best chance you’ve got is to circle Friday the 17th and maybe Saturday the 18th on your calendar. The rest is mostly a flat, windy blur.

Rusty.

Read more