Tawharanui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’m gonna be straight with you – for the next couple of weeks, Tawharanui is mostly a write-off. We’ve got a long stretch of tiny, weak surf and ordinary conditions, before a serious spike in size right at the end that’s likely too much for this break. Let’s run through it.

The first week is a tough watch. From Saturday the 25th of July through to Saturday the 1st of August, we’re looking at swell heights mostly between 1 ft and 3 ft, with a short period of just 6 seconds at the start. The combined energy is weak, sitting between 25 and 127 (that’s low energy). Winds are a mixed bag of cross-off and cross, with a couple of glassy moments on the morning of Wednesday the 29th. That morning, we’ve got 2 ft of 13-second easterly groundswell, and the water is about average for the time of year. The wind is dead glass, so it’ll be clean, but the waves are tiny and weak. It’s surfable if you’re desperate, but nothing to write home about. The rest of the week is mostly poor surf with strong breezes or lumpy conditions.

Then we hit a real gap. From Sunday the 2nd of August through to Thursday the 6th of August, the swell drops to just 0.3 ft, with periods up to 16 seconds. The energy is negligible – readings of 9 to 19. Winds are offshore or cross-off, clean, but with zero swell to ride. That’s a solid five-day stretch of nothing. The forecast confidence is high for this period, so it’s dry.

Friday the 7th of August sees a bit of a pulse, with 4 ft of short-period swell (5-6 seconds) from the NE and ENE. The energy jumps to moderate (104-181), but the wind is a moderate cross-shore, creating a cross-chop. It’s poor surf, messy and not worth the paddle.

Now, the standout – and it’s a big one. Saturday the 8th of August afternoon, the model is showing a monster 13 ft ENE swell with an 8-second period, and energy readings of 2272 (very strong). The wind is light cross-onshore, but the forecast explicitly says it’s too big for this break. The next morning, Sunday the 9th of August, it’s a similar story: 13 ft ENE swell, 10-second period, energy of 3188, with light cross-off winds and clean conditions. Again, the forecast says it’s too big for Tawharanui. This is expert-only territory, and even then, a beach-and-reef setup like this is going to be dangerous and unsurfable. For the average surfer, it’s a no-go. If you’re a kite surfer, the setup might look interesting, but for paddle surfing, it’s a pass.

So, bottom line: the best on offer is that tiny glassy morning on Wednesday the 29th of July, but it’s barely a ripple. The big swell at the end is impressive but not for this spot. We’ve got a long dry spell in between. Stay patient, forecasts can change, but right now, it’s quiet.

Rusty.

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