Tawharanui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let me level with you about Tawharanui. Over this 16-day stretch, it’s pretty grim. There’s nothing worth getting excited about for a solid week, and the whole run is a struggle. The first real chance of anything with a pulse doesn’t come around until Monday the 7th, and even that is a battle.

The water here is sitting at 58°F, which is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual.

After days of tiny, weak surf, Monday morning the 7th sees a pulse of 7ft swell from the NNW, but the period is short at 7 seconds, so it’ll be fat and sloppy. The combined energy hits 387 (moderate wave energy), which sounds bigger than it will actually look. Plus, there’s light rain and a moderate cross-off breeze. It’s more of a messy, lumpy situation than anything worth paddling for. The afternoon drops off to 4ft, so that window closes fast.

Tuesday the 8th offers a tiny sliver of hope. The early morning shows 3ft from the north with an 8-second period, but the wind turns offshore from the SW at just 3 mph, so it’s clean. The energy is weak – only 98 – but it’s surfable if you’re desperate. The break is a beach and reef setup, open to the NE, and the guidance says the optimum swell direction is from the NE, so this small north swell is at least in the right ballpark. But the combined energy is under 100, so don’t expect much push. Crowds are ‘often’ here, so you might have company for the few crumbly ones you’ll find. It’s not a standout, just the least bad option.

From there, it’s a long, grinding run of tiny, weak surf. The combined energy barely scrapes into double digits most days. We get loads of strong offshore breezes in the second week, which would be perfect if there was any swell to groom. On Tuesday morning the 15th, we see clean conditions with a 16 mph offshore from the WSW, but the swell is only 0.3ft and the energy is 16 – totally unrideable. That pattern holds for days. There’s a brief bump on Wednesday the 16th with 4ft from the NW and a short 5-second period, but the energy is still under 100 and the conditions are ordinary.

Honestly, if you don’t surf on Tuesday the 8th, your next possible look is Thursday the 17th afternoon, when we see 3ft from the NNW with a 6-second period and clean offshore wind. The energy is 56 (weak), so it’s barely a wave. That’s the best of the second week, and it’s not saying much.

There’s no standout day here. If I had to pick one, it’s Tuesday morning the 8th, just because it’s the only time the wind is truly offshore on a swell that isn’t completely flat. But keep your expectations on the floor.

Tawharanui is fairly consistent as a break, so this blank run is a bit unusual. The forecasts can change, but right now? Leave the board at home.

Rusty.

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