Tawharanui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – we’ve got a long, quiet stretch ahead. The next week and a half is basically a write-off for any proper surfing, but there’s a glimmer of something promising right at the end of the 16-day window.

The pattern is dry for the next several days, but the ocean is flat. We’re looking at a serious gap of about 10 days where the swell is just too small to bother with. From Thursday the 16th right through to around Wednesday the 29th, it’s ankle-snappers and knee-high wobbles at best. The wind will be mostly offshore or cross-off, which keeps the water clean, but there’s simply no energy. The combined swell energy is stuck in the weak zone, barely cracking 100 (7 to 96) for the first week, then dropping to single digits for a few days. The waves are tiny, in the 0.3 ft to 1.3 ft range, and the period is short and weak. Not worth paddling out for.

You’ll be waiting until the 30th of July to see anything real. That Thursday morning, a pulse of 9.8 ft swell from the north rolls in. The combined energy jumps right up to 1209, which is strong. Now, that’s a big one – over 8.2 ft, so it’s strictly for the experienced crew. The period is 8 seconds, so it’s not a long-period groundswell, just a fat, lumpy wind swell. The problem is the wind. By Thursday afternoon, it swings onshore from the north-northeast at 12 mph, making it choppy and messy. The morning, however, sees a light onshore breeze at 6 mph, which isn’t ideal, but it might be the best of a tricky window.

The only other noteworthy day is Wednesday the 29th. The morning shows a clean 5.2 ft north swell with glassy conditions – that’s a beautiful thing. Light wind from the south-southwest, zero wind, the water will be like a mirror. The combined energy is a solid 212, so there’s moderate power. That 5.2 ft is a nice size, not too big for most, but the swell direction is north, and Tawharanui (which is a beach and reef setup) is exposed to the northeast. The north swell might wrap in a bit, but it’s not going to be perfect. The water temperature is 59.2°F, which is bang on average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

Look, if you’re desperate, Wednesday the 29th morning is the standout. It’s the only day with clean conditions and a rideable wave for the average surfer. The Thursday the 30th morning is bigger, but it’s for the experts only, and the wind is a factor. The crowds at Tawharanui are often there, so expect company if you go.

Bottom line: a long, flat spell with a late-week pulse of size that’s a bit raw. Hope the forecasts hold for that Wednesday morning glass-off.

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