Tawharanui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here, and I gotta be straight with ya – we're looking at a pretty bleak stretch ahead for Tawharanui. The next couple of weeks are mostly a write-off, with hardly any surf worth paddling out for. We've got a long gap of nothing special until we finally see a glimmer of something on the horizon.

The water temp is sitting at 59°F, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so nothing weird there.

We start off now with Tuesday the 21st and it's a dud. Tiny waves and a cross-shore wind just ruining any chance of a ride. That sets the tone for the next week. There's a few days where the wind goes offshore, like Wednesday the 22nd and Thursday the 23rd, but the swell is barely a ripple – 0.7ft to 1.0ft of junk. Not worth getting the wetsuit wet for.

Then Friday the 24th gets a bit of a bump in size, hitting 5ft by the afternoon, but it's a messy, short-period windswell from the NNW with a horrible cross-onshore wind. The combined energy climbs to 151, but it's all chop and no shape. That 5ft is really just for the die-hards, and honestly, with that wind, it looks more like a kite session than a paddle.

The weekend of the 25th and 26th is a howling gale with strong offshore winds hitting 25 mph. The swell is tiny, and while the wind is offshore, it's so strong it'll blow you off your board. The combined energy is weak, between 52 and 100. Hard pass.

We get a bit of hope early on the morning of Tuesday the 28th. The swell holds at 2ft but the period stretches out to a very long 15 seconds, coming from the east. The combined energy hits 169, which is moderate, and the wind is a gentle breeze from the SSW, keeping it clean. This is a groundswell, so it'll have some push and those long lulls, but at a beach and reef setup like Tawharanui, that long period can make it break a bit straight. It's surfable, but very ordinary. The rating is a 1/10, so don't expect much.

The rest of the week into the 30th is more of the same – tiny, clean waves but nothing with any power. The morning of the 31st finally sees a proper bump in size, with 7ft of north swell building. The combined energy jumps to 599, which is strong. But the wind is a moderate cross-shore, creating a chop, and the period is only 8-9 seconds, so it's a messy windswell. At 7ft, that's expert territory, and with the poor conditions, it's a "marginal" call at best.

After that, we're back to square one. The first week of August is a desert – tiny swell and strong offshore winds. The only slight highlight is Monday the 3rd of August, with a tiny 2ft swell and a glassy morning. The combined energy is a weak 59, and it's a "surfable" wave, but honestly, it's barely a ripple. That's a full two weeks from now, so don't bank on it.

So, where's the standout? Honestly, there isn't one. The best on offer is the morning of Tuesday the 28th of July – that 2ft of long-period groundswell with clean conditions. It's not going to be pumping, but it's the only window where the wind and swell are kind of aligned. If you're desperate, paddle out then. Otherwise, give it a miss.

Rusty out.

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