Tawharanui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve checked the charts, and I’m not gonna sugarcoat it—Tawharanui is looking pretty average for the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a long stretch of ordinary-to-poor conditions, and the swell just doesn’t want to line up with the wind. There’s no real stand-out, but we’ll pick the best of what’s on offer.

The pattern starts out rough. Saturday the 4th of July is a write-off—gusty onshore winds (16 mph) and messy surf. Sunday the 5th shows a glimmer with a light WNW cross-offshore breeze on the morning, but the swell is tiny at 2 ft, period a modest 11 seconds, and the combined energy is weak (175). Still, it’s clean enough for a beginner log session—the only time you’ll catch me being slightly optimistic.

Then we hit a massive gap. From Sunday afternoon right through to Wednesday the 8th, there’s nothing but poor conditions. Mixed winds, short-period slop, and even a 7 ft windswell on Tuesday the 7th with 515 energy, but it’s blown out by 19 mph onshore winds. That’s a skip.

Wednesday the 8th morning finally brings some proper offshore wind from the SSW (19 mph). The swell is 3 ft from the north, period 8 seconds, combined energy 207—moderate. It’s clean and fresh, but small and short-period, maybe a few fun runners. That’s your best bet this week. Afternoon cleans up with 3 ft from the east, also offshore but lighter.

After that, it’s back to tiny dribble. From the 9th through the 14th, swell drops below 2 ft, energy readings sink into the low double digits (32 to 52). It’s clean on some mornings, but you’d be chasing whitewash on a foil. Not worth paddling out.

Then on Thursday the 16th of July, we get a serious swell spike: 7 ft from the north, period only 7 seconds, combined energy 432. But it’s accompanied by onshore winds (28-31 mph) turning into a near gale. That’s dangerous and ugly—a beach-and-reef setup like Tawharanui will be a washing machine. Certainly not for beginners, and honestly, not much fun for anyone with a paddle. It’s looking more like a kite day if you’ve got the gear.

The tail end of the period, the 18th and 19th of July, flattens right out again: 2 ft to 2 ft with very weak energy (24-61). The 18th morning has a light WSW cross-offshore breeze and clean conditions, but you’d need a longboard and low expectations.

Tawharanui is a fairly consistent break, so this blank run is a bit of a letdown—it tends not to stay this poor for long. Forecasts can change. For now, Wednesday morning the 8th is the only real window, and even then, it’s a marginal one.

Stay patient, folks. Rusty out.

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