Tawharanui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I gotta be straight with you – this outlook for Tawharanui over the next few weeks is a real mixed bag, and mostly a frustrating one. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing much at the start, then a big pulse of swell, but it’s gonna take its sweet time to get good.

We kick off with a real flat spell. From Sunday 12 July right through until Friday 17 July, there’s no surf worth paddling out for. That’s nearly a full week of tiny, poor quality waves with onshore or cross-shore winds messing things up. Not much to get excited about.

Then, on Friday 17 July morning, we finally see a change. The wind swings offshore from the SSW at 12 mph, which is clean. Swell is tiny though, just 1 ft from the east with a nice long period of 17 seconds. The combined energy is weak (94). It’s surfable, but only just. The moderate offshore breeze and long period should give you a few well-shaped, clean little peelers, but you won’t be hanging ten. This clean, offshore trend holds into Saturday 18 July morning with the same 1 ft east swell, period 15 seconds, and light SSW offshore winds at 6 mph. Still, it’s pretty ordinary.

Now, hold onto your board. Sunday 19 July brings a big jump in energy from an east swell, but the wind absolutely wrecks it. The swell hits 6 ft from the east, period is short at 7 seconds, combined energy is moderate (336), but you’ve got a fresh 22 mph cross-onshore wind from the east. It’s gonna be lumpy, choppy, and not fun. This messy, windy theme rolls into Monday 20 July with even stronger winds, and by Tuesday 21 July we have a massive 10 ft to 12 ft NE swell (energy hits 1151, then 3400) but it’s still blown out by near-gale force cross-shore winds. For a beach and reef setup like Tawharanui, this is more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle-surfing session.

The real standout, and the one to circle on your calendar, is Wednesday 22 July. We’ve got a huge 15 ft swell from the northeast with a long period of 12 seconds and an enormous combined energy of 5936. The wind is a cross-offshore from the S at 19 mph, keeping it clean. The forecast says it’s too big for this break – and it is. This one is for experts only. It’s gonna be a beast. The afternoon cleans up even more with a 12 ft east swell and moderate offshore winds from the SSW at 12 mph.

After that big day, Thursday 23 July is still offering great conditions for experienced surfers. The swell drops to 7 ft from the ENE, period 12 seconds, with a moderate 16 mph offshore wind from the southwest keeping it clean. Combined energy is still strong at 2074. The Friday 24 July morning also looks excellent with a 7 ft east swell, period 11 seconds, and a light cross-offshore wind from the S at 9 mph (1188 energy). The afternoon gets a bit smaller at 6 ft but with a light offshore from the SSW, which will be glassy and clean – very good for the right surfer.

Into the second week, things wind down. Saturday 25 July has clean 4 ft east swell with a gentle offshore from the SW at 9 mph. Good, clean, smaller conditions for a fun session. Sunday 26 July morning is tidy with a 3 ft east swell and light cross-offshore winds, but by afternoon the wind turns cross-on and the surf gets messy again. From there, it fades into tiny, poor conditions for the final days of the outlook.

Best on offer: Without a doubt, Wednesday 22 July is the standout, but it’s massive and for experts only. For the rest of us, Thursday 23 July and Friday 24 July mornings offer the best balance of size, clean offshore winds, and that powerful long-period groundswell from the east-northeast.

Catch ya on the sand.

Rusty.

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