Tawharanui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty. Let's be real with you. The next two weeks for Tawharanui are a tough watch. We’ve got a long, dry spell to get through before anything even starts to look like a surfable wave.

Right now, it’s flat. I mean, properly flat. From Sunday, the 6th of September, right through to the 17th, the swell is barely a whisper, mostly under 2 feet. The energy is weak, with combined swell readings hanging around 10 to 49 (weak energy). There’s a bit of a pulse on Monday the 7th, with a 7ft swell from the NNW, but it’s a messy, short-period 7 seconds, with a cross-shore wind that’s just going to chop it up. The combined energy hit 477 (moderate wave energy) that morning, but it’s still a write-off for a paddle. That afternoon cleans up with a cross-offshore wind, but the swell drops to 5 feet and the period is still short. Not worth the effort.

We get a few mornings of clean, offshore conditions from the SW, but the swell is tiny. On Tuesday the 8th, there’s a 3ft windswell, but it's just not enough. The water temp is about 58°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The real story, the only story that matters, is the stand-out window that builds on Friday the 18th of September. That’s the one to circle on the calendar. We get a solid 8ft NNW groundswell rolling in, with a period of 9 seconds. The combined energy explodes to 1798 (very strong wave energy). The wind is light and cross-offshore from the SSE, which is going to keep those faces clean. That Friday afternoon is the best on offer. It’s a proper size, so this is for experienced surfers only—beginners, stay on the sand. This is a point-and-reef setup, so that longer-period groundswell will wrap in nicely.

Saturday the 19th is still solid, with a 6ft and 5ft swell from the N, but the wind is howling from the SSE at 28-31 mph. That’s going to ruin the surface. It’s clean, but the wind strength will make it a battle. The energy is still there at 619 (strong wave energy), but the quality is gone.

After that, it drops off quickly. Sunday the 20th and Monday the 21st see the swell fading to 3ft and 3ft, with the wind switching offshore again. The energy drops to 337 (moderate wave energy) by Monday, but it’s a marginal forecast. The crowd factor at Tawharanui is “often”, so expect company on that Friday peak.

So, to sum it up: it’s a long wait. Absolutely nothing for the first 12 days. Then, a genuine, heart-pumping window on Friday the 18th of September. That’s the one. The rest is just a cruel tease of clean wind and no waves.

Rusty.

Read more