Tawharanui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s cookin’ for Tawharanui over the next couple of weeks. I gotta be straight with you – the outlook is a bit of a slow burn, and this isn't exactly a pulse-pounding start.

First up, we’re looking at a long, quiet stretch. From Thursday the 9th of July through to Monday the 13th, there's just nothing to get excited about. We’re talking tiny, weak swell with poor conditions and cross-off or cross-on winds. The combined energy is barely a whisper, struggling in the 20s and 30s (52). It's a fair dinkum flat spell to kick things off.

We finally get a tiny glimmer of hope on Tuesday the 14th. The swell bumps up to a measly 4 ft from the North, but honestly, it’s still pretty ordinary. The wind does turn cross-off and then offshore in the afternoon, which is a big positive for clean faces, but the swell is just too weak and short-period to give you anything with real push. The energy is still pathetic (88). It’s a paddle-around session, not a wave-catching one.

The waiting game continues through the rest of that week. More tiny, poor surf with no real power. The highlight of the whole 16-day window, and the only time I’d seriously consider paddling out, looks like the weekend of the 18th and 19th. Saturday the 18th morning brings a cleaner 4 ft from the NE with light winds, and the energy is building (74). Then, Saturday afternoon kicks up a gear with a 6 ft, short-period NE swell, and the energy jumps to 336 (moderate). The wind is light and cross-shore, so it’ll be a bit crinkly but rideable. Then Sunday the 19th morning is the real talking point, if you’re an expert. The swell is forecast to hit 10 ft from the NE. The energy is strong (1006). But the wind is onshore and gusty, so it’s gonna be a messy, lumpy beast. By Sunday afternoon, the swell is predicted to be a massive 13 ft from the NNE with a long period of 11 seconds and a massive 4636 combined energy. The file says the wind and tide are favorable, but the swell is just too big for this break. For experts only, and even then, it’s a serious call.

After that big pulse, Monday the 20th is a total washout with gale-force onshores and messy, giant waves. It’s more of a kitesurfing day than a paddle session. The surf slowly drops through the week, with the best chance of a clean, manageable wave being on Wednesday the 22nd. The morning offers a 3 ft NE swell with light cross-off winds and clean conditions (216 energy). The afternoon goes glassy, which is a treat, but the swell drops to 3 ft. It’s small, but it’s the cleanest, most user-friendly wave of the entire run. After that, it’s all downhill again into tiny, poor surf for the rest of the week.

So, for the standout, I’m pointing you to Wednesday the 22nd of July. Tawharanui itself will be the spot. The swell is small from the NE, but the wind goes light and then glassy. It’s a true clean-up day. The water temp is about 60°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there. Crowds are often here, so you won’t be alone, but the conditions will be worth it. The only other real standout, but only for the brave and experienced, is that Sunday the 19th pulse. The swell will be massive, but the conditions look rough.

Rusty, signing off.

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