Tawharanui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I’ve got the lowdown on Tawharanui. Let’s be real, it’s a bit of a slow burn, but there’s a little light at the end of the tunnel.

The whole story for the next 16 days is a long, quiet stretch of nothing much, followed by a proper pulse of energy that’s big and powerful, but tricky. The first week or so is pretty much a write-off, with a real gap from now until late in the month. The first hint of anything surfable isn't until the 17th, and even then it’s very small. Then, after a few days of that, we get a massive spike in swell around the 21st, but it comes with poor winds. The real standout is the following week, promising some clean, solid groundswell.

Tawharanui is a beach and reef setup, and it’s exposed to the NE. Water temp is sitting at 59°, which is pretty average for this time of year, nothing unusual.

For the first week, it’s a tough slog. The morning of the 17th shows a small 1ft easterly swell with a period of 17 seconds. That’s a long-period groundswell, but it’s tiny. The wind is light offshore from the SW though, so the surface will be clean. The combined energy is weak (93). It’s surfable, but just barely. This continues into the 18th with similar small, clean waves.

The real story is the big swell that arrives on the 21st. It’s a 10ft easterly swell that jumps to 12ft the next day, with a short period of 8-9 seconds. The combined energy is massive (1245 on the 21st, 1939 on the 22nd). This is a heavy, powerful, messy swell. The wind is a strong, fresh cross-onshore, which will turn it into a lumpy, choppy mess. This is definitely not for beginners. It’s big, raw, and only for experts, and honestly, with that wind, it looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The best window is the following week. The morning of the 24th is the standout. Expect a clean 5ft swell from the ENE with a 13-second period, giving it some real grunt. The wind is a moderate offshore from the SSW, so it’ll be clean and lined up. The combined energy is moderate (585). This is the best on offer. The 25th will also be good, with clean 3ft waves and offshore winds, a little smaller but still fun.

The 26th brings a nice glassy afternoon with a clean 3ft swell from the east, 12-second period, and moderate energy (213). That’s a lovely way to finish the run.

So, to sum it up: the first two weeks are a bust. The big swell around the 21st is a beast but too windy for a good paddle. Your best bet is the 24th and 25th, with clean, solid groundswell. The 26th is also a great, glassy option.

Keep your eyes on the forecast, as it can change, but for now, patience is the name of the game.

Rusty.

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