Tawharanui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. I’ve had a proper look at Tawharanui (New Zealand) and I’ll be straight with you—this is a tough stretch. The next week and a half is mostly a write-off for good waves, but there’s a light at the end of the tunnel if you’re patient.

The forecast kicks off Friday the 10th of July with tiny 2-foot easterly swell and a fresh 19 mph southerly cross-off wind. It’s clean but gutless, and that knee-high slop is barely rideable. Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th are similar story—1 to 2 feet of weak east-southeast swell with light winds, and on Sunday afternoon it actually goes glassy for a spell. But it’s just not enough oomph to get excited about. Monday the 13th morning is dead flat and glassy, then the wind swings northerly in the arvo whipping up a messy 3-foot windswell with a 4-second period—choppy and junk. Tuesday the 14th morning sees a bit more size come in, 5 feet from the north with 6-second period, but that’s short-interval windswell making it a lumpy mess.

Nothing really happens from Wednesday the 15th through to Thursday the 16th—it’s flat or close to it, with swell barely reaching 0.7 feet. Then on Friday the 17th, things get interesting. The morning still looks ordinary with a 1-foot easterly swell and moderate cross-off wind, but the afternoon brings a shift. A lovely clean 1-foot swell from the east with a 17-second period shows up, and the wind goes offshore from the SSW at 12 mph. That long-period groundswell will push some clean lines through, especially if you’re out on a reef or point setup. The energy is still low (155 combined energy), so it’s ankle to maybe knee-high, but it’s clean, and after days of junk, that’s a win. Saturday the 18th picks up steam. Morning sees 6 feet from the north with 10-second period and a clean cross-off wind, energy jumping to 1113—solid moderate energy. The arvo pushes into 8 feet from the north-northeast, still clean, but that’s pushing into expert territory for Tawharanui’s beach and reef setup. It’ll be big, powerful, and only for the skilled crew.

Now, the real standout is Sunday the 19th of July. The morning delivers an 12-foot north-northeast swell with 11-second period and a fresh 19 mph south-southwest cross-off wind. The combined energy hits a whopping 3101—that’s very strong wave energy. The wind is clean, the swell is massive, but at that size it’s going to be too big for this break. Tawharanui can handle a beating, but 12 feet will be charging hard and closing out on the beach. Only absolute experts should paddle out. The afternoon sees the swell drop slightly to 10 feet but with offshore SSW wind, still massive and heavy.

Monday the 20th of July remains excellent for experienced surfers. The morning has 8 feet from the north-northeast with 10-second period and clean offshore SSW wind at 16 mph—the energy is strong at 1485. This is the best window for anyone comfortable in the overhead-to-double-overhead range. The conditions are clean and the swell is solid, though it’ll still be a handful for most. It’s not a beginner’s session.

Tuesday the 21st brings a welcome drop in size. The morning has 6 feet north-northeast swell with light offshore SSW winds and clean conditions. Combined energy sits at 745—moderate but solid. The arvo holds 5 feet with light cross-off wind. This is good, surfable, fun-sized wave for intermediate and above, and the crowds at Tawharanui can be often, so expect company if it’s working. After that, Wednesday the 22nd onwards fades fast. The swell drops back to under 3 feet and the wind turns onshore or cross-shore, leaving us with poor conditions through to the end of the forecast period on the 25th of July.

To sum it up: the first week and a half is grim—flat to tiny junk. The real window kicks off on Sunday the 19th and peaks Monday the 20th for the big, clean, expert-level surf. Tuesday the 21st is your go-day for more manageable but still fun waves. After that, it’s back to nothing for the rest of the run. Keep an eye on that Sunday-to-Tuesday window—it’s the only show in town.

Rusty.

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