Tawharanui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mates, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at the swell window ahead for Tawharanui. Gotta be straight with you: it’s gonna be a long, slow grind before we see anything worth getting truly excited about. The good news is the offshore winds are going to be hanging around a lot, so when the ocean finally wakes up, it should be clean.

Right now, and for the next several days, we're looking at flat, dribbly leftovers. Swell heights are stuck around 0.3 ft to 1 ft with weak combined energy, reading between 5 and 29 in the early going. The period is there, around 9 to 13 seconds, but there’s just no power behind it. Clean, offshore winds will make it look pretty, but you’ll be doing more floating than surfing. This stretch runs from Saturday the 12th right through to Sunday the 20th, with the energy only starting to build late in that run.

Keep an eye on Friday the 18th. The wind goes onshore from the NNE and it gets lumpy and messy. It’s a write-off, really. That north-northeast swell tries to build through the day – we're talking 4 ft to 6 ft – but the period is a short, crumbly 6 to 7 seconds, and the energy jumps into the moderate zone (251 to 298). This is going to be all over the shop, cross-onshore and choppy. This looks far more interesting for the kite crew than for us paddle surfers.

Then we get our one real standout. Saturday the 19th. The wind swings back offshore, blowing fresh from the SSW. The swell maxes out at 6 ft with a period of 8 seconds on the morning, and the combined energy is a solid 485, which is strong wave energy. It’s still a bit short-period for a beach and reef setup like this, but it will have some punch. The direction is NNE, which isn’t the optimum SW direction for this spot, so it might be a bit raw. But for the first time in the whole run, there's some proper size on offer. That morning is the pick of the entire 16 days, but honestly, it’s a 1 out of 10 for me – it's more about the hope than the certainty. The afternoon backs off a bit in size and gets harder to paddle into with a strong offshore.

After that, it fades again. Sunday the 20th sees 3 ft to 3 ft of wind-swell with a moderate 8 to 9 second period and clean, cross-off winds. Monday the 21st has a bit more size at 2 ft to 2 ft but it's still just average. Then it's back to tiny surf from Tuesday the 22nd through to Sunday the 27th, with heights dropping below 2 ft and energy falling back down to that weak range, with some glassy morning conditions on the 24th and 25th.

So, the long and short of it is: don't hold your breath. The water temp is sitting at 59°, about 0.7° warmer than average, so it’s pretty normal for this time of year. But the surf is a different story. It’s a classic flat spell. Forecasts can change, but right now, the only day worth checking is that Saturday the 19th. Promising, but far from certain. I’ll be watching.

Rusty.

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