Tawharanui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you—this outlook for Tawharanui is a tough one. We’ve got a solid run of small, messy, or wind-affected surf stretching across the whole 16-day window, with not a single standout session worth getting truly excited about. The first real surf recommendation doesn’t kick in until Wednesday morning the 8th of July, and even then it’s pretty ordinary. Let’s walk through it.

Wednesday morning the 8th of July offers the most promising start, if you can call it that. You’re looking at a small 3ft swell pushing in from the NNE with a short 8-second period—so not much power or shape. The wind is a cross-off from the SSW at 16 mph, which will keep the surface reasonably clean, but don’t expect much push. Combined energy is sitting at 121 (moderate wave energy), and the water temp is 60°, which is about average for this time of year. The wave comment says “poor surf conditions,” so it’s small and ordinary, but at least the wind is okay. This is a beginner-friendly setup given the size, and Tawharanui is a fairly consistent beach and reef break that handles swell from the NE. Crowds are often here, so you might have company even on a weak day.

Wednesday afternoon sees the swell drop a little to 2ft from the east with a 7-second period, and though the wind goes offshore from the SSW at 12 mph, it’s still very average—just “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.”

Thursday the 9th and into Friday the 10th, things go downhill fast. Swell drops to 2ft and 2ft, winds pick up strong to 25 mph from the south on Thursday afternoon, and the energy plummets to 53 (weak). Poor surf conditions across the board. The weekend is even smaller—1ft on Saturday and Sunday with light cross-shore breezes that leave a few ripples on the surface but no real waves to ride. Monday brings a tiny 2ft to 2ft NNE swell with a pathetic 4-second period and onshore cross winds, making it choppy and disappointing.

From Tuesday the 14th through to Tuesday the 21st of July, the swell stays tiny or gets blown out. We do see a jump in swell size on Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th—5ft to 6ft from the NE and ENE—but the wind is onshore or cross-onshore at 19–22 mph, making it lumpy and messy. Combined energy climbs to 342 (moderate) but the conditions are rated “poor surf conditions” each time, so that’s a no-go for paddle surfing. Honestly, with those winds and a beach-and-reef setup, that period looks more interesting for kite surfing than for a normal surfboard.

Toward the very end of the outlook, on Tuesday the 21st of July, a bigger 8ft NNE swell rolls in with a long 11-second period and combined energy of 2870 (strong to very strong wave energy). But again, the wind is a cross-on from the ESE at 22 mph, the call is “poor surf conditions,” and the size makes it expert-only at a beach-and-reef break. Not a clean day.

So, summing it up: there’s no true standout here. The best of a weak bunch is Wednesday morning the 8th of July—3ft NNE swell with clean cross-off winds—but it’s still small and mediocre. If you’re desperate for a paddle, that’s your window. The rest is a long stretch of flat, small, or wind-battered conditions. Tawharanui doesn’t often stay this poor for long, but this 16-day run is a real test of patience.

Stay tuned, forecasts can always change.

Rusty.

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