Tawharanui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you—this outlook for Tawharanui is a tough one. We’ve got a long stretch of pretty ordinary conditions ahead, with only a few fleeting moments where it might be worth paddling out. The first real chance doesn't come until Sunday morning, and even then, it's not much to shout about.

Let’s start with the overall pattern. For the first few days, the wind is all over the shop—mostly onshore or cross-onshore, and the swell is small and messy. The wave energy is weak for the most part (around 203 to 239 on Saturday), so don’t get your hopes up. Water temperature is sitting at 60°F, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so nothing out of the ordinary there.

Sunday morning, July 5th, is the first window. We’ve got a light WNW breeze blowing cross-offshore, which will keep things clean. Swell is tiny though, only 2ft from the east with a period of 11 seconds. The energy is low (141), so it’s more of a longboard or a foamy session. It’s surfable, but very ordinary. The afternoon turns cross-on and the swell drops even more—nothing worth chasing.

Monday July 6th is a write-off. A fresh NNW wind kicks up a 5ft short-period wind swell (6 seconds) that’s just lumpy and cross-shore. Combined energy hits 214, but it’s poor quality—more like a washing machine than a wave. Not recommended.

Tuesday July 7th sees some size, with a 7ft NE swell building to 8ft by the afternoon, but the wind is howling at 25 mph from the NE and ENE, turning it onshore and messy. The energy spikes to 586 in the morning and a massive 1950 in the afternoon, but with that wind, it’s a blown-out mess. Only for the hardcore or the kite surfers.

Wednesday July 8th is another near-miss. Morning has a clean 3ft swell with a light S cross-off breeze, but the period is short at 7 seconds, so it’s a bit weak (155 energy). The afternoon looks better with a 2ft swell and a moderate SW offshore wind, clean but small (92 energy). It’s surfable, but just barely.

From Thursday July 9th right through to Monday July 13th, we’ve got a gap of nearly 6 days with nothing worth getting out of bed for. Swell drops to 1ft to 2ft, winds are light, and the energy is pitiful (down to 17 at one point). There are a couple of “surfable but ordinary” tags in there, but honestly, it’s flat spell territory.

Tuesday July 14th brings a slight lift—4ft from the east with a period of 7 seconds and moderate energy at 169, but the wind is SE cross-shore in the morning, turning to ENE cross-onshore with rain in the afternoon. It’s choppy and messy.

Wednesday July 15th and Thursday July 16th are still poor. Winds crank up to near gale force on Thursday (31 mph), with rain and blown-out conditions. Swell is around 3ft to 4ft, but it’s not surfable.

The only standout—if you can call it that—shows up on Saturday morning, July 18th. We’ve got a 7ft NE swell with a period of 8 seconds, combined energy of 614 (moderate to strong), and a light ENE breeze that’s cross-onshore but light enough to keep the ripples small. It’s still lumpy, but it’s the best of a bad bunch. That size is pushing into intermediate territory—too big for beginners. The afternoon gets choppier as the wind picks up.

Sunday July 19th sees the biggest swell of the period—10ft from the NE with a 10-second period and sky-high energy at 1627. But with rain and a fresh ESE cross-onshore wind, it’s going to be a lumpy, blown-out mess. That’s expert-only, and even then, it’s not pretty.

Sadly, these conditions are pretty normal for Tawharanui at this time of year. The spot is exposed to the NE, and we just don’t have the right wind or swell alignment in this outlook. Keep an eye on the charts—things can change, but right now, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

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