Tawharanui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s call it like it is – this stretch is about as flat as a paddling pool for the next 16 days. It’s a rough run, and I’m not stoked to be the bearer of bad news. There’s a massive gap from now all the way through the first week of September with next to nothing for a surfer. The only slight whisper of activity comes right at the end of the forecast.

The only break we’re talking about is Tawharanui, a beach and reef setup that works best when the swell comes from the northeast. Water temp is 57°F, which is just average for this time of year – nothing off the charts.

Let’s walk through it. Saturday the 29th of August gives us a small window. Morning sees a 5ft north swell with a period around 7 seconds – short period windswell – and the combined energy is moderate at 269. The wind is glassy from the NNW at just 3 mph. That’s as clean as it gets. But the overall quality is low; the wave comment says good, but the score tells a different tale. It’s the best you’ll see, but that’s not saying much. Saturday afternoon turns to trash with heavy rain and a cross-shore SE breeze at 9 mph, chopping it up.

From Sunday the 30th of August, it’s a dead zone. Offshore winds from the SW blow 22-25 mph, cleaning the surface, but the swell drops to 3ft and then smaller. The period sits at 8-9 seconds – not bad for shape – but the height is pathetic. Combined energy drops to weak levels (54, 39). This repeats day after day. Monday through Friday of the first week of September: clean, offshore or cross-offshore winds, but wave heights barely scrape 2ft. Swell from the north or northeast, period around 8-9 seconds, no power at all. You’ll be looking at a flat ocean.

Tuesday the 8th of September brings a bump. A north swell hits 10ft with an 8-second period, combined energy strong at 1188. That’s a lot of water, but the wind is cross-onshore from the north at 16-19 mph, making it choppy and lumpy. The wave comment says poor conditions. That size is big and messy – maybe a few experts could paddle out, but the cross-onshore chop will ruin it. Wednesday the 9th still has some size at 6ft, but again, cross-onshore and messy.

The last hope is Saturday the 12th of September morning. A tiny 1.0ft swell from the northeast, but the period stretches to 12 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell pulse. The offshore wind is moderate from the SSW at 12 mph, making conditions clean. The wave comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions” and the score is a 1 out of 10. Combined energy is weak at 41. With that long period and tiny height, Tawharanui might see a few distant lines, but they’ll be rare. It’s not a standout, just the only thing on the menu.

Bottom line: it’s a tough outlook. When the swell is this small for this long and the wind keeps cleaning up nothing, you’re just twiddling your thumbs. Things can change, but right now, it’s a flat spell. Rusty, signing off.

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