Tawharanui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this outlook for Tawharanui is a tough one to write. We’ve got a solid 16-day window ahead, but the pickings are slim. The first recommendation doesn't even show up until almost two full weeks from now.

The pattern is basically flat and poor for days on end. A lot of tiny, weak swell with minimal energy. Scores of low or no wave energy get thrown around, and the wind often messes things up even when there is a bump. The water temp at Tawharanui sits around 58°F, which is about average for this time of year – nothing unusual there.

From Friday the 4th right through to Thursday the 17th of September, it’s a real struggle. Swell heights barely nudge above 3ft most days, often sitting at pathetic 0.7ft. The combined energy readings are all in the double-digit weak zone – numbers like 51, 43, 18 – just no grunt. On Monday the 7th, we get a pulse of 6ft from the north, but with a short period of 6 seconds, strong cross-onshore wind at 19 mph, and lumpy conditions, it’s a write-off. The energy there hits 238 (moderate) but it’s all for nothing. Tuesday the 8th cleans up a bit with cleaner cross-off winds and some waist-high north swell (3ft, 8 seconds, energy 127 – moderate), but the quality is still rated as poor.

The only real standout, and I mean the only one worth getting excited about, shows up on Friday the 18th of September. That morning we see a solid 10ft north swell rolling in with an 8-second period. The combined energy is 1053 – that’s strong, powerful swell. The wind is cross-off from the WNW at 16 mph, so the faces should be clean. This is big, experienced surfer territory – over 8ft, so it’s not for beginners. The break itself (Tawharanui) is a beach and reef setup, and this size north swell will draw right into the exposed spots. Keep an eye on it, but remember this is a long-range call – promising but less certain. Saturday the 19th still has some solid leftover swell (7ft, optimal offshore winds from the WSW at 22-25 mph), but the clean conditions are accompanied by strong winds which will make paddling a mission.

So, what you’ve got is a long dry spell from now until about the 17th, then a brief, powerful window right at the end. If you’re in the water before then, you’re chasing tiny, short-period lumps in often messy wind. It’s not the best run for Tawharanui, but that 18th could fire for those ready for some proper size.

Rusty.

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