Tawharanui Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Got to be straight with you from the jump: the next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for paddling out at Tawharanui. The guidance points to no real surf on the cards for the whole 16-day window, and the data backs that up. It’s going to be a case of watching the ocean do its thing rather than getting out there and getting wet. A blank run like this can happen, but Tawharanui is fairly consistent, so I wouldn’t expect it to stay poor for long. Forecasts can change, and we might get a last-minute pulse.

Looking at the start of the period, the water is sitting at 57°F which is pretty much average for this time of year. Nothing weird there. But the surf is just about non-existent, with a tiny 0.3ft northeast windswell and only 7 units of combined energy, which is real weak stuff. The wind is cross-off and light though, so it’s clean, but there’s just nothing to ride. You’re looking at flat, glassy conditions and that’s about it.

Through Thursday and Friday the swell does start to pick up a little. By Friday the 28th, we’ve got 4ft to 4ft of north-northeast swell, but it’s short-period slop at 5 seconds and the wind swings onshore and fresh, making it lumpy and choppy. The combined energy gets up into that moderate zone (104), but the quality is just poor. This is not the day to be out there, trust me. Saturday the 29th morning is still messy, but the afternoon brings a change. The wind swings offshore from the SSW, cleaning it up, and we’ve got 3ft of northeast swell. It’s still only registering 80 on the energy scale and the period is short, but it’s about the best we’ve seen so far. It’s surfable, but very ordinary. You’d be scratching for a ripple.

Sunday the 30th through Tuesday the 1st, the wind is howling from the west and southwest at 19 to 22 mph. The swell drops back to under 3ft. It’s definitely blowing offshore, which cleans things up, but with that much wind, it’s hard work and the energy is all weak. The swell direction is shifting to a more north-northeast, but the size just doesn’t back it up.

From the 2nd of September onwards, the surf just fades away into almost nothing, under 2ft. Any energy in the water is weak, with combined energy values mostly in the teens and twenties. There’s a bit of a bump around the 3rd with 3ft from the NNW, but it’s a short-period, weak system that won't offer much and it’s back down to tiny by the afternoon. The pattern is just flat, some offshore and cross-off winds keeping the surface clean, but it’s for the kites, not the paddle.

Around the 6th and 7th, there’s a final attempt at life. The swell pushes back up to around 3ft from the northwest, and there’s even a moment on the Monday afternoon with a strong offshore wind (25 mph) and 120 units of energy. But the wind is pumping so hard it’ll be near impossible to paddle into, and it’s those short, lumpy windswell waves again. You’re fighting the elements more than riding anything decent. The go-to advice from me is to leave the board in the car and save your energy for another week. The whole window is looking bleak, with the only mildly sessionable moment being Saturday afternoon when it’s small but clean. But even then, it’s not a standout.

This is Rusty, signing off. Keep an eye on it – these flat spells don't last forever around here.

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