O'Neills Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a yarn about O'Neills Bay. This forecast is a real mixed bag, and honestly, it’s a long wait for anything worthwhile.

The first proper swell we see arrives on Monday the 24th of August, but it comes with a big caveat. We’ve got a solid 10ft groundswell rolling in from the WSW, with a long period of 14 seconds. The combined energy is strong (3614), but the problem is the wind. It's blowing onshore from the southwest at 12 mph. That’s going to make it messy. The swell size at 10ft is already in the “experts only” territory, and with the wind on it, this is a tough one to get excited about. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The best chance we get in this whole run looks like Wednesday the 26th of August. The swell drops a touch to a still-chunky 6ft from the SW, with a long 14-second period. The combined energy is moderate (1449). The key here is the wind. Wednesday morning is a light breeze from the WSW at 6 mph, blowing directly onshore, but by the afternoon it swings to the west, still light. That’s going to clean it up nicely. For a high-performance spot like O'Neills Bay, that light wind will make a huge difference. It’s still a solid size, so it’s not for the faint-hearted, but the conditions will be there for a good session.

After that, it gets pretty average. Thursday the 27th has a smaller 6ft swell but cross-shore winds, and the quality drops. Friday the 28th is clean in the morning with a cross-offshore breeze, but the swell is only 5ft and the period is dropping. The energy is weak (792). It’s a paddling day, not a standout.

Then we hit a real rough patch. From Saturday the 29th of August right through to the end of the first week of September, the wind just won’t play ball. We get some serious swell pulses – 12ft, 13ft – but the wind is onshore, often strong, and the energy numbers are huge (up to 9688). These are not days for a paddle board; that kind of power with onshore wind is more of a kitesurfing setup. It’s raw, angry, and blown out.

There’s a glimmer on Sunday the 6th of September. We’ve got a massive 13ft groundswell from the WSW with a very long 17-second period. The combined energy is extreme (9688), and the wind is a gentle 9 mph onshore from the west. This is an all-or-nothing day for experts only. That long period will make it wall up, but it could be amazing if the tide and sandbars line up. The forecast is a bit out there, so keep an eye on it.

The long and short of it: Wednesday the 26th of August afternoon is your best bet. It’s not perfect, but it’s the most surfable wave in a period full of big, messy, and wind-affected conditions.

Rusty.

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