O'Neills Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – for the next couple of weeks around O’Neills Bay, it’s a bit of a rough patch for us paddle surfers. The long-range outlook has some promise, but you’re gonna have to be patient.

We’ve got a big, powerful SW groundswell rolling in right from the start, with a very long period of 16 seconds and combined energy readings up in the strong range (5748). The problem? It’s blowing onshore at 16 mph straight into the face, making it messy and dangerous. The water temperature is sitting around 59°, pretty average for this time of year. This swell is way too big for beginners at over 10 ft and even for experts, the conditions are just poor. This setup, with that strong onshore wind and heavy swell, honestly looks more interesting for the kite surfers than anyone on a paddle board.

That solid SW groundswell hangs around for the next few days, but the cross-onshore wind just won’t let up. Sunday 14 Sep, Monday 15, Tuesday 16 – it’s all the same story: big swell, choppy faces, and poor surf conditions. It’s not worth your time. There’s a bit of a drop in size mid-week, but the wind stays messy.

We finally get a decent window starting Thursday morning, 17 September. The swell drops to a manageable 5 ft from the WSW, but the real story is the wind switching offshore (NNE) at a light 9 mph. The surface will be clean, and the combined energy (545) is moderate. It’s a marginal forecast, but it’s the best we’ve seen. By the afternoon, the swell picks up to 5 ft with a cleaner cross-offshore breeze, though the energy climbs to 933. It’s not perfect, but it’s a surfable window.

Friday 18 September sees the swell building again to 7 ft from the WSW with a long 16-second period, but the wind goes cross-onshore, chopping it up again.

The weekend of 19-20 September is another write-off – onshore winds and raw, powerful swell (energy up to 6483 on Sunday). The following week (21-25 Sep) is a real mixed bag. There are moments with lighter winds, like Monday 21 Sep morning with 8 ft SW swell and a light cross-onshore breeze, but the quality is marginal at best. The crowd profile at O’Neills is “often,” so you can expect company when it’s any good.

The standout moment, and the best bet in this whole run, is Monday morning, 28 September. We’ve got a 3 ft SW groundswell with a solid 15-second period, combined with clean, light offshore winds from the NNE. The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” The wave energy is 741, so moderate, but the quality will be there. This is a long-range call, so it’s less certain, but if it holds, that morning session will be the pick of the bunch.

So, in short: the first week is a right-off. There are some marginal windows on 17 and 18 Sep for the patient. The best and cleanest surf looks to be on Monday 28 Sep, but keep an eye on the forecast as it gets closer.

Rusty.

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