O'Neills Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you—this outlook for O’Neills Bay is a bit of a heartbreaker. We’ve got a solid 16-day window ahead, but honestly, the conditions are fighting us almost every step of the way. There’s a massive gap at the start with no real surf recommendations, so we’re looking at a long wait for anything decent.

The first chance to even think about getting wet is Monday the 7th of September. There’s a solid 7ft swell from the WSW with a very long 16-second period—that’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy is a strong 2898. But the wind is a cross-shore from the NNW at 12 mph, and it’s bringing light rain. The wave comment calls it marginal, and the score is low. It’s just messy. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The pattern doesn’t improve. Tuesday the 8th sees the swell drop to 5ft, but the wind swings to a cross-onshore SSW at 16 mph, making it choppy and poor. That trend holds through the week. By Wednesday the 9th, the swell is down to 4ft from the SW with a 12-second period, and while the wind is lighter, it’s still cross-onshore. The energy is weak (530). Not worth the paddle.

Then things get real. From Friday the 11th of September right through the weekend, the swell pumps up big time—12ft to 13ft from the SW, with periods of 16 to 18 seconds. The combined energy hits an enormous 10562, which is very strong. But here’s the catch: the wind is howling from the SW at 22 mph, cross-onshore or onshore, creating lumpy, ugly conditions. For a beach break like O’Neills, this setup is honestly more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. It’s too big and messy for anyone but experts, and even then, the wind ruins it.

The second week stays bleak. The swell bounces between 6ft and 10ft, but the wind is almost always cross-onshore or onshore, often a fresh breeze of 16-19 mph. The wave energy drops but the quality never recovers. The best of a bad lot might be Monday the 14th of September, when the swell is 8ft from the SW with a 15-second period and a moderate 2772 energy, but the wind is still a light cross-onshore. It’s marginal at best.

As we head into the 16th and beyond, the pattern continues—decent swell size, terrible wind. O’Neills is a consistent spot, so it usually doesn’t stay this poor for long, but this run is a tough one. Forecasts can change, so keep an eye on it, but for now, I’d say leave the board in the car and save your energy.

Rusty.

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