Mangawhai Heads Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, grab a coffee and settle in, folks. Rusty here, and I’ve had a good look at the charts for Mangawhai Heads. Let’s be straight with each other – the next week and a bit is going to be a tough slog. We’re looking at a lot of small, weak energy and cross-off winds that aren't going to do us any favours. The water temp is sitting around 60°, which is pretty average for the time of year – nothing to get excited about.

The first real glimmer of hope doesn't show up until late in the run. There’s a long stretch of very poor to ordinary conditions from now right through to the 28th. It’s a proper dry spell.

For the first week, from Thursday the 16th right through to Tuesday the 28th, the swell is tiny – mostly 0.7ft to 2ft – with a combined energy that’s hardly worth mentioning (mostly under 100). The wind is a persistent cross-off from the WSW or SW. It’s clean, but it’s knee-high crap. The best of this bad run is probably Friday morning the 17th. We’ve got a 2ft east swell with a long 17-second period, and the energy jumps to 295 (moderate). The wind is offshore from the WSW, so it’ll be clean. But at that size, you’re really just wading around. It’s a beginner-level wave at best.

Then, we hit a total dead zone. From Saturday the 19th morning through to Monday the 28th afternoon, we’re looking at surf that is either poor or just surfable but very ordinary. The swell drops to 0.7ft to 2ft, and the energy is weak (single digits or low double digits). The wind is mostly light offshore or cross-off, keeping the surface clean, but there’s simply no push.

Now, here’s the interesting part. Tuesday the 29th morning is the standout of the entire outlook. It’s a long way out, so take it with a pinch of salt, but the models are showing a glassy morning with a 5ft north swell and a combined energy of 210 (moderate). The wind is from the west at 3 mph, which is basically glass. That’s the one to circle. The wave period is only 6 seconds though, so it’s short-period wind swell, which won’t have the same shape as a groundswell, but it’ll be fun and clean. This is a good size for intermediate surfers, but at 5ft, it’s starting to push the limit for beginners.

The afternoon of the 29th sees the swell bump up to 6ft, but the wind swings to a cross-shore from the NNE, which will mess it up a bit. The period is still short (7 seconds).

Then, Thursday morning the 30th is a big red flag. The swell hits 8ft from the north with a combined energy of 995 (very strong). That’s only for experts. The wind is a cross-on from the NE, so it’s going to be a washing machine. The period is a paltry 8 seconds, so it’s just a big, messy, unpredictable lump. For a beach and reef setup like Mangawhai Heads, that’s more of a kite-surfing day than a paddle-surfing day. Stay safe.

The run then fades out into the 31st with smaller, choppy, onshore junk.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a write-off. The only real day to get excited about is Tuesday the 29th morning. Mark it in your calendar, but don’t plan your life around it yet. The crowds at Mangawhai Heads can be a problem sometimes, so if that swell holds, get there early.

Rusty.

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