Tanchet Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you about this one. Looking at the whole 16-day window, I’ve gotta say, it’s a tough stretch. The swell is tiny, the energy is low, and we just don’t have any real standouts to get excited about. There’s a gap of surfable days right at the start—nothing worth paddling out for until the conditions barely improve, but even then, it’s a hard sell.

Let’s start with Tanchet. This reef break is exposed to the swell, but it’s inconsistent, and right now it’s just not firing. The water is warm at 71°F, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, so at least you won’t need a thick suit. For Saturday afternoon, 18 July, we’ve got a tiny 0.7ft swell from the west, with a weak period of 8 seconds and combined energy of just 9. The wind is a cross-onshore breeze at 16 mph, making it choppy. Poor surf conditions, no doubt.

Sunday morning, 19 July, sees a slight bump up to 1ft from the northwest with a short 5-second period, energy at 14. The wind is offshore from the east-northeast at 19 mph, so it’s clean, but with that tiny swell, it’s barely a ripple. The rest of the week through to Thursday, 23 July, is a parade of tiny waves—0.3ft to 0.7ft—with mostly offshore winds keeping the surface clean, but the energy is weak, ranging from 6 to 10. The best of this flat spell is Thursday morning, 23 July, when it’s glassy with a 1ft northwest swell, but still only 13 energy. It’s pretty, but not surfable.

Heading into the weekend of 25-26 July, we see a little more size. Saturday morning, 25 July, delivers 2ft from the northwest with a 5-second period and 24 energy, but the wind is cross-shore at 12 mph, creating a cross-chop. By Saturday afternoon, the swell pushes to 4ft from the west-northwest, still with a short 5-second period but energy climbs to 69. The wind is a fresh cross-shore at 19 mph, making it lumpy and messy. It’s still not good for surfing—this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Sunday, 26 July, stays around 3ft from the west-northwest, with periods of 7-8 seconds and energy in the low 80s, but the wind is either cross-onshore or cross-shore, so it’s choppy or lumpy. No real quality.

The start of the following week, Monday morning, 27 July, is glassy with a 2ft west-northwest swell and 37 energy, but it’s small and weak. After that, we’re back into tiny swells—1.0ft to 3ft—with mixed winds and poor conditions. The energy is low, never breaking 50. The last week of July and into August is a write-off: 0.7ft to 1.0ft swells, onshore or cross-onshore winds, and energy barely above 20. Sunday, 2 August, has a brief bump to 49 energy with a 1.0ft swell, but it’s cross-onshore and choppy.

Honestly, for the whole 16 days, there’s nothing I’d call a good surf day. The best you’ll find is a clean, glassy morning with knee-high slop, but it’s not worth loading the boards. This is a true flat spell—sometimes it’s just like this, and forecasts can change, but right now? I’d find something else to do.

Stay tuned, Rusty.

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