Suicides Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Hey folks, Rusty here. Let's be straight with you – the outlook for the next 16 days is a tough one. We've got a long stretch of frustrating conditions ahead, with a glimmer of something more promising right at the very end.

The water is sitting at a warm 81°F, which is about 0.9°F above the norm. Pretty average for this time of year, nothing to write home about in terms of a temp anomaly.

From Tuesday the 4th of August all the way through to Tuesday the 11th of August, it’s a real flat spell. The swell is tiny, barely 1 ft, and the wind is a persistent cross-off from the ENE. There's just no energy to work with – the combined swell energy is struggling to break 100, sitting at 76 on the Tuesday morning. It’s a whole lot of nothing. You'll see the combined energy tick up a bit, hitting 192 on the 7th, but with a 1 ft swell, that's just a tease.

We finally see a shift on Wednesday the 12th of August. The swell bumps up to 3 ft from the South with a period of 18 seconds. That's a proper groundswell, and the combined energy jumps right up to 706 – moderate wave energy. The problem is the wind is still a stiff cross-off from the ENE at 19 mph. The forecast says "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions," so it's a "maybe" at best. It's a similar story on the 13th with a 3 ft swell from the South, but the wind is even stronger, hitting 25 mph. The energy is there (733 on the 13th afternoon), but the wind is just going to mess it up. The setup is a beach and reef, and with that much wind, it might be more interesting for the kite surfers than paddle surfers.

The only real standout, and I mean the only one, is the tail end of the forecast. Look at Wednesday the 19th of August. The swell is picking up to 2 ft from the Southwest, and the period is a solid 20 seconds. That's long-period groundswell, and the combined energy is a moderate 447. The wind is still a cross-off from the ENE, but it's lighter at 19 mph. This is a long-range call, so it's less certain, but the ingredients are starting to line up. The swell direction from the SSW is a decent match for the break's optimum. This is the one to keep an eye on, but don't book the day off work just yet.

Rusty

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