State Line Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve gotta be straight with you – the outlook for State Line is a bit of a mixed bag, with some real quiet spells and a couple of windows that might get your heart racing. There’s a rough patch at the start, so don’t expect much in the first few days.

The opening swell on Thursday, September 3rd, kicks off with a 7ft NW swell, but it’s coming straight onshore with a SW wind at 6 mph. The combined energy is 1623 – that’s a strong pulse, but it’s not clean, and the water’s sitting at 55°, a bit colder than normal for this time of year. That’s the first day, and it’s a write-off.

Friday, September 4th, sees the swell drop to 7ft from the WNW but with a cross-onshore wind from the S at 9 mph, making it choppy. The afternoon improves slightly with a 3ft SSW swell and a long 18-second period, but the wind is still cross-onshore. The energy drops to 1332, but it’s still moderate. Not worth paddling out.

Saturday, September 5th, through Monday, September 7th, is a flat spell. Swell drops to 3ft and then 3ft, with energy falling from 885 to 376. The wind stays cross-onshore or cross-shore, and the wave comment says “poor surf conditions” or “marginal.” There’s nothing to ride here – a total gap of three days with no real surf.

Tuesday, September 8th, is a tease. The morning has a tiny 2ft SSW swell, but the afternoon turns glassy with a 2ft SSW swell at 14 seconds. The energy is just 326, but the wind is glassy, and it says “expect good surf conditions.” That’s the first sign of life, but with only 2ft, it’s for the longboard only.

The real standout doesn’t show up until Friday, September 11th, in the morning. We’ve got a 3ft SW swell with a 16-second period – that’s proper groundswell – and glassy conditions, no wind. The energy is 846, moderate, and the wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” This is your best bet in the first week. The long period means the waves will have shape and power, but at a beach break it might be a bit straight – still, with glassy conditions, it’s clean and fun.

After that, we hit another rough patch. From Saturday, September 12th, to Tuesday, September 15th, the swell bounces between 3ft and 7ft, but the wind is mostly cross-onshore or cross-shore, and the energy stays moderate. The 7ft NW swell on Monday afternoon, September 14th, has a short 7-second period – that’s windswell, and with a cross-shore wind, it’ll be choppy and messy. Not worth it.

But then, Wednesday, September 16th, afternoon brings a shift. We’ve got a 4ft WNW swell with a 13-second period, and a cross-offshore wind from the NNW at 16 mph. The energy jumps to 1083, and the wave comment says “clean.” This is promising. The next morning, Thursday, September 17th, is even better – 4ft WNW swell, 12-second period, cross-offshore wind at 9 mph, and the wave comment says “expect very good surf conditions.” The energy is 637, but it’s clean and the wind is off. That Thursday morning is the standout of the second week – the swell is solid, the period is long, and the offshore wind will keep it glassy. Keep an eye on it, but it’s a week and a half away, so don’t hold your breath.

The swell picks up later that afternoon to 6ft from the NW with a 12-second period, but the wind hits 19 mph, cross-offshore. It’s clean, but the energy is 1314 – strong – and that’s a lot of wind. For the experienced crew, it might be a go, but it’s pushing the limits.

Through Friday, September 18th, the swell holds at 5ft WNW with a 11-second period, but the wind ramps up to 25 mph by the afternoon. The morning is clean, but the afternoon is a mess – “poor surf conditions.” The energy is still moderate, but that wind is a killer.

Overall, the best on offer is Friday, September 11th, morning for the glassy, clean 3ft groundswell, and Thursday, September 17th, morning for the bigger, clean offshore swell. The rest is a lot of waiting. Stay patient, and watch that forecast.

Rusty.

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