State Line Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s take a hard look at the surf ahead for State Line. Honestly, it’s a frustrating stretch with nothing that really screams "drop everything and go." Keep your expectations low for the next two weeks.

The water’s only sitting around 51°, which is a full 4° colder than what you’d normally expect this time of year. That ain't just a little chilly—that’s a real bite in the air, and you’ll be needing a thick hood and gloves for sure at State Line.

Starting off Sunday July 5th, the morning has some cross-on wind and a messy 6ft swell from the NW with a short, weak period of 8 seconds. Wave energy is pretty moderate (629). It’s readable, but it’s not clean or inviting with that wind working against it. In the afternoon it drops right off to 2ft. Not worth paddling out for.

Monday July 6th is more of the same—cross-on breeze, 5ft in the morning and a bumpy 7ft in the afternoon, but the periods are short and the winds are cross. The whole day just looks average and choppy.

Tuesday July 7th... there’s a hint of potential if you’re a patient surfer. The morning actually has a 3ft SSW groundswell with a very long 20-second period and a strong energy reading of 1156. That long period means it’s going to be better shaped, but at a beach break like State Line, it can run too straight. The wind is still cross-on though, which kills the vibe. Afternoon drops off to 2ft.

Wednesday July 8th is poor. Strong cross-shore winds and messy swell. The afternoon bumps up to 8ft from the NW, period only 6 seconds, with fresh cross-shore winds making it lumpy. Kite surfers might get a thrill, but for paddle surfing, it’s a write-off.

Now, Thursday July 9th afternoon is the first standout in the whole forecast—but it's a warning, not a celebration. A massive 10ft NW swell rolls in with full, powerful energy (1332), but the forecast is clear that it’s too big for this break. That’s expert-only territory, and even then, conditions are far from perfect with moderate cross-shore winds. If you’re a pro and know the place, this is your window, but it’s not for the faint-hearted.

After that, the trail goes cold for days. Friday July 10th through to Tuesday July 14th is a flat, poor run—swells barely above 3ft, bad winds, zero quality. Wednesday July 15th offers a glimmer with a long-period 20 second WNW swell, but only 2ft. Not doing much.

The next real "maybe" arrives Thursday July 16th. The morning has a long 19-second WNW swell with good energy (1137) and light cross-shore winds. It’s only 3ft, so you’ll be hunting for the sets that come through. But the afternoon brings another massive 10ft NW pulse with huge energy (1548) and gentle winds—but again, that size is too big for State Line for almost everyone.

Friday July 17th is small and messy. Saturday July 18th picks up to a solid 7ft NW swell in the morning and 8ft in the afternoon, both with short periods and cross-shore winds. Surfable for the experienced, but far from ideal.

Monday July 20th afternoon has a tiny 4ft NW swell, light winds blow clean, but it’s weak and not worth the effort.

Bottom line: This 16-day stretch is mostly a bust. There are two big days on July 9th and July 16th that are too big for the break, and everything else is small, wind-affected, or just plain poor. If you’re desperate, keep an eye on that Thursday July 16th morning for a glassy window with long period—but bring your patience and your thickest wettie.

Rusty.

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