Dunedin - St Clair Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up for the Dunedin - St Clair stretch. We’ve got a solid 16-day window to look at, and while it starts off a bit slow, the back half of the run has some serious potential.

For the first few days, we’re in a bit of a lull. Tuesday the 21st is the only real option to kick things off, with a 4.3ft S swell wrapping in with a 12-second period. The combined energy is moderate (522), and with a light NW breeze, it’s clean. It’s not a standout, but it’s a start. Water temps are sitting at 51°F, which is a touch warmer than usual for this time of year, so it’s a bit more comfortable than you’d expect.

Then we hit a dry patch. Wednesday the 22nd drops off, and by Thursday the 23rd we’re looking at tiny 1.0ft waves. Friday the 24th offers a glassy 1.6ft with a long 15-second period, but the energy is weak (134). Saturday the 25th is a write-off with fresh wind. Essentially, from the 22nd through the 25th, there’s nothing worth paddling out for.

The surf starts to wake up again on Sunday the 26th. The morning session is the pick here with a 3.6ft SSW swell, a 13-second period, and a light cross-offshore breeze. The energy is getting strong (768), and the conditions are clean. Monday the 27th morning is similar, but the real gem is Monday afternoon: glassy conditions, 3.0ft of ESE swell with a very long 15-second period, and a combined energy of 726. That’s a beautiful, clean, long-period groundswell setup for the point. Crowds are only sometimes an issue, so you might get a few waves to yourself.

Now, here’s where things get serious. Tuesday the 28th brings a big jump in size. We’re looking at 6.9ft of ESE swell with a 14-second period, and the energy is pumping (1781). But this is too big for a beginner-friendly break like St Clair. The wind is calm, but the swell is just too meaty for the average surfer. Wednesday the 29th morning is the standout for experienced surfers only. 5.6ft, 13-second ESE swell, strong energy (1054), and a clean cross-offshore breeze. The file says it’s excellent for those who can handle it. If you’re not an expert, sit this one out.

Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st ease off a bit, offering clean 4.3ft to 5.6ft waves with light winds, but the water is still pretty full. The crowd factor is back to being manageable.

Then we hit the final big push. Saturday the 1st of August morning has 8.2ft of E swell, but it’s too big for the break. The afternoon is a total loss with a 25 mph SW cross-on. Sunday the 2nd and Monday the 3rd are also in the too-big-for-this-break category, with huge energy readings (3564 on Sunday morning). This is serious, heavy water. For the average surfer, it’s a no-go.

The window closes on Tuesday the 4th with a 5.2ft S swell at a very long 16-second period. The morning is clean with a cross-off breeze, and the energy is very strong (2244). This is for experts only, as the swell is still solid. Wednesday the 5th fades out with messy onshore winds and falling energy.

The standouts: If you’re looking for the best all-rounder, hit Monday the 27th at St Clair – the afternoon session is glassy with a long-period groundswell. It’s the most accessible good wave of the run. For the experienced crew, Wednesday the 29th morning is the one to circle – punchy, clean, and powerful.

Read more