Dunedin - St Clair Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, this is Rusty. Look, the next couple of weeks are a bit of a mixed bag at Dunedin’s St Clair, with the first few days offering only small, messy surf. The water temp is sitting at 52°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a small win. The real story here is a big pulse of swell that’s going to be way too much for this spot, and then a few windows of cleaner, more manageable waves for the experienced crew.

Tuesday the 8th kicks off with tiny 2 ft swell from the south, period a short 8 seconds and combined energy of just 62 (weak). The morning is glassy, which is a tease, but it’s so small. Afternoon goes cross-on and stays small. Wednesday the 9th morning is cleaner with a light offshore from the NNW, but the swell drops to 1 ft from the south. The period jumps to 19 seconds – that’s very long period groundswell – and combined energy is 101 (moderate). That’s a sign of energy, but the size is just too small to do anything with. Afternoon winds pick up strong from the NE.

Thursday the 10th and Friday the 11th get messy. Thursday is all cross-shore wind, 30-40 km/h, with swell building to 4 ft, but the combined energy jumps to 628 and then 1287 (moderate to strong). It’s lumpy and choppy, not worth paddling out. Friday sees similar swell heights (4-4 ft) but with cross-off winds and still strong energy (1131-1153), but the conditions are just clean-ish, not great.

Now, Saturday the 12th is where it gets wild. The morning swell is a massive 15 ft from the SSW, period 16 seconds, and the combined energy is a staggering 16,261 (very strong). Afternoon drops to 10 ft from the south, energy still 5,144. The wind is cross-off, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. This is expert-only, and even then, it’s going to be a washing machine. Not for the faint-hearted.

Sunday the 13th is still huge – 8 ft to 12 ft – but the wind is strong cross-shore, making it a mess. Poor. Monday the 14th finally offers a decent window. Morning sees 6 ft from the south, period 11 seconds, combined energy 1,189 (strong), and a light cross-off wind from the west, keeping it clean. The comment says excellent for experienced surfers. This is a standout. The best of the first week. Tuesday the 15th morning has a light offshore from the north, smaller 3 ft south swell, 9-second period, energy 230 (moderate), and clean conditions. Good for a fun, smaller session.

Wednesday the 16th is another big day – 8 ft in the morning, 7 ft in the afternoon, both from the SSW, 13-second period, strong energy (1629-2149). The wind is clean, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break again. Expert-only, and it’s a lot of water moving.

Thursday the 17th and Friday the 18th are a write-off. Near gale-force winds, cross-shore and cross-on, with swell still 6 ft to 10 ft but messy. Stay home.

Saturday the 19th is a flicker of hope. Morning sees 5 ft from the SSW, 15-second period (very long groundswell), combined energy 1,197 (strong), and a light cross-off wind from the NNE, keeping it clean. The comment says excellent for experienced surfers. This is another standout. The afternoon is also clean with 5 ft from the south, 16-second period.

Sunday the 20th morning is back to big – 10 ft from the SSW, 14-second period, energy 5,036 (very strong), and clean wind, but too big for St Clair. Afternoon drops to 6 ft from the south but gets windy. Monday the 21st and Tuesday the 22nd are back to poor, with strong cross-shore winds and messy conditions. Wednesday the 23rd is marginal, with a lighter cross-onshore wind and 4-5 ft swell.

So, the best bets are Monday the 14th morning and Saturday the 19th morning. Both offer clean conditions, solid swell for experienced surfers, and good energy. The size is decent, the wind is right, and the crowds are possible at St Clair, but with the size and quality, it’s worth it. The big days on the 12th, 13th, 16th, and 20th are just too much for this break – unless you’re a pro and don’t mind a beating.

Stay safe, and keep an eye on the sky.
Rusty.

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