Dunedin - St Clair Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mates, Rusty here. Let’s get into it. The ocean’s been holding its breath for a bit, but the next couple of weeks are gonna throw a bit of everything at us here at St Clair.

The start of the window is a slow burn. We’ve got a little bit of background energy, but it’s nothing to write home about. The real talk is that after this initial pulse, we’re looking at a dry spell that runs from the 9th all the way through the 14th. It’s gonna be small and mushy, a real test of patience.

For the first real go, keep an eye on Thursday morning (August 6th). We’re looking at a clean 5ft swell from the S with a 9-second period. The wind is light and offshore from the NW, which will have the place looking like glass. It’s not a monster, but it’ll be clean and user-friendly, perfect for getting a few easy ones. The water’s running at 51°F, which is a solid 4°F warmer than the norm for this time of year—you’ll definitely feel that difference on your feet.

The energy in the water is moderate (477) for that Thursday morning session, but the shape should be worth it. The following Friday and Saturday (the 7th and 8th) stay similar with clean but slightly smaller surf (around 3ft and 3ft). It’s rideable, but you’ll be working for it.

Then it dies off. Don't bother getting too excited from the 9th through the 14th. The swell drops right out, there’s a lot of wind, and it’s just poor. A couple of days have wind and tide against us, and the rest just don't have the size. That’s a solid four-to-five-day lull where the only thing breaking might be your heart.

But hang tight, because things get properly interesting for the following week. The standout is clearly Monday, August 17th. The swell direction swings to the S, and it builds rapidly. By Monday morning we’re looking at a solid 12ft of southerly swell, and by the afternoon it’s jacking up to a massive 15ft. The energy in the water is insane—we’re talking 2890 in the morning and a no-joke 10841 by the afternoon. That is a strong, heavy system.

This is where we need to talk about the break itself. St Clair is exposed, and this size is serious. This isn't for the faint-hearted or beginners. With swell over 8ft, we’re strictly in expert territory. The wind is cross-shore and moderate, so it’s gonna be a bit lumpy and challenging. This is a day for the big-wave crew who know the ledge. If you’re not 100% sure, just watch from the rocks. If you are sure, you’re in for a proper session. It might be a bit much to call it perfect due to the wind, but for raw power, this is the pick of the window.

The day after, Tuesday the 18th, will still have big, strong surf—around 10ft in the morning and 8ft in the afternoon—but it’s a step down from the Monday peak. The wind stays clean-ish, but it’s still big.

By the 19th, it starts to ease off and get a bit more reasonable. The 20th looks cleaner and smaller, but with a longer period, which would be a nice way to finish the outlook.

So, to wrap it up: The first few days have some clean, small waves. Then it goes flat for nearly a week. The real treasure is that monster swell hitting on Monday the 17th. It’s got the size and the energy, but it’s also got a cross-shore wind and is way too big for anyone but the most experienced. That’s the one to circle on the calendar, but don't sleep on that clean Thursday morning before the flat spell.

Rusty out.

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