Dunedin - St Clair Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ for Dunedin’s St Clair over the next couple of weeks.

Well, it’s a bit of a mixed bag right from the get-go. We’ve got some solid swell on the way, but it’s gonna take a few days to really get its act together. The first few days are more about building energy and waiting for the wind to play nice.

Monday the 24th kicks off with a 4ft SSW groundswell, period a long 15 seconds, and some cross-off wind. The combined energy is moderate (1125). It’s clean, but only a marginal call. The afternoon picks up nicely though – still 4ft, but the wind drops light and cross-off, making for some really clean waves. Expect very good surf conditions in the arvo.

Tuesday the 25th sees the swell bump up to 5ft and 6ft, but the wind swings cross-shore and stays a bit breezy. The wave energy is still moderate (980 to 1225), but the surface gets a bit of chop. It’s a marginal forecast, so keep your expectations in check.

Now, Wednesday the 26th is where things get interesting. The morning is a gem – glassy conditions with a light N wind, 5ft of S swell at 14 seconds. The wave energy is still moderate (880), but that glassy surface makes it a real standout for the first week. The best on offer in this early run. The afternoon sees the swell jump to 6ft and the period stretch to 16 seconds, but a light cross-on ESE wind and some rain put a bit of a damper on it.

Thursday the 27th is a write-off. Strong cross-shore winds, near gale force in the afternoon, and messy, choppy surf. The wave energy is moderate (1282) but who cares with that wind. Just stay home.

Friday the 28th is a redemption day. The morning is glassy again with a 4ft S swell (11 seconds) and combined energy dropping to 355. It’s a clean, easy session. The afternoon is even better: 5ft from the east, a shorter 9-second period, but glassy conditions and very good surf. A real solid day.

Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th are average at best. The swell hangs around 4ft to 5ft, but the wind is cross-shore, and the surface gets that slight chop. The wave energy is modest (410 to 506). Sunday afternoon gets ugly with a strong onshore wind and a big 7ft swell (1641 energy) – that’s a mess.

Now, here’s where it gets wild. From Monday the 31st of August through to Friday the 4th of September, the swell goes absolutely massive. We’re talking 12ft to 16ft of SSW groundswell, with periods of 14 to 16 seconds. The combined energy is off the charts – 7240, 13055, 17138. That’s well into the “very strong” category. The problem is, it’s too big for St Clair. The wind might be offshore and clean, but for a beginner-friendly break, this is expert territory. It’s a true standout for the big-wave chargers, but not for the average surfer. If you’re not an absolute shark, stay well clear.

The second week calms down a bit. Saturday the 5th of September morning is still a thumping 12ft (too big), but the afternoon drops to 4ft from the SSE, clean cross-off, and very good surf. A nice surprise. Sunday the 6th is fun and small – 3ft to 2ft, clean, but a bit weak. The real standout for the second week is Monday the 7th of September: a 4ft SSW groundswell with a very long 17-second period, glassy conditions, and combined energy of 1005. That’s excellent for experienced surfers. The long period means the waves will have real punch and shape, but at a beach break like St Clair, that long period can make ‘em a bit straight. Still, for the crew who know what they’re doing, it’s a cracker.

Tuesday the 8th is a smaller, clean follow-up with 3ft at 17 seconds – a nice way to wind down.

So, the true standouts? First week, Wednesday 26th morning. Second week, Monday 7th September morning. The rest is either too small, too windy, or too big for the average punter.

Stay sharp, and don’t get caught out by those monster days.
Rusty.

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