Dunedin - St Clair Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, surf’s up... eventually. This is Rusty, looking at the 16-day picture for the St Clair stretch. The first bit of the run is going to be a wash-out for us, but don't go hanging up the wettie just yet, there are a few windows of pure gold hiding in there.

The immediate outlook is grim for Friday the 11th. We've got a solid 6ft SSW groundswell pushing in (moderate energy at 1653, but it's the period that matters), but a 25 km/h W cross-off wind is going to have it messy. The water temp is sitting at 51°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so that’s a small mercy.

That swell just builds into a beast. Saturday the 12th sees a massive 16ft SSW swell with a 16-second period (the energy is off the charts at 17223) and that’s just too much. The wind is a cross-shore 35 km/h WSW, and St Clair can't handle that size. It's going to be a washing machine. Same story through Sunday, with 7ft to 8ft surf on tap (energy around 1907-2221), but it's still too big and the cross-shore winds are going to chop it to pieces. Not a paddle, mate, that’s a survival mission.

Monday the 14th sees it start to settle. The swell drops down to a more user-friendly 5ft from the S on the morning (energy down to 600). The wind goes light and NW (10 km/h), giving us a clean, cross-off breeze. This is the first real chance to get out there. The surf’s not epic, but it's clean and it's ridable.

Tuesday the 15th, the bottom drops out. We're looking at ankle-biters in the 1ft to 2ft range (energy down to 83-156). It'll be glassy and clean in parts, but there's just no push. You're paddling for nothing.

Wednesday the 16th is similar, tiny 1ft-2ft slop (energy around 90-166) with a glassy morning. For the beginners, this is a good time to work on your pop-up, but there's no real surf.

Now, Thursday the 17th is where it starts to get properly interesting. The afternoon brings a 3ft SSW swell with a 17-second period (energy 713) and a light NNW offshore wind. That's a nice little combo. Very clean conditions and that long-period groundswell will be hitting the point with authority. It's a standout window.

The excitement is short-lived though. A big slug of swell hits on Friday the 18th. A 10ft SSW pulse with a strong 40 km/h WSW cross-shore wind blows it out. It’s too big and blown out - you'd be fighting a losing battle. Saturday the 19th is still bumpy, with 8ft S swell (energy 2238), but the wind is lighter.

Sunday morning the 20th is another proper standout. The swell has dropped to 4ft from the SSW (energy 705), the wind is a true N offshore at 15 km/h, and St Clair will be clean as a whistle. That is a great morning to be out there.

The week after that is a mixed bag of frustration. Monday the 21st is a write-off with a strong WSW cross-shore wind tearing up a small 3ft-3ft swell (energy 346-368). Tuesday the 22nd brings a huge jump back up to an 12ft SW on the morning (energy 7322) - way too big, but the wind is offshore. That's for big-wave specialists only. The middle of next week is then plagued by onshore WSW winds and messy cross-chop, so it'll be a scratch-fest.

The final part of the run, from Thursday the 24th onward, is all about size again. We're looking at consistent 10ft to 13ft swells (energy between 3369 and 5880) for the next few days. These are powerful SSW and SSE swells, and the wind is a mix of offshore and glassy at times, but the size is just relentless. It will be pushing St Clair to its limits, and I’d reserve that for the most experienced chargers. There will be a few windows of clean 10ft surf on the 26th, but it's still a paddle out into the big stuff.

So, the two best bets for the classic St Clair experience are the Thursday afternoon session on the 17th and the Sunday morning on the 20th. Both have quality groundswell and clean, offshore winds. The week-away window looks promising too, but that’s a long-range call, so keep your expectations in check.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty

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