Squeaky Beach (Wilsons Promontory) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cookin’ at Squeaky Beach over the next couple of weeks.

First up, the water’s sitting at a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, about 58°. That mild anomaly is a nice little bonus, but don’t get too comfortable – we’ve got a real mixed bag of conditions ahead.

We kick things off with a slow start. Tuesday morning (7 July) offers tiny 2ft SW swell with a very long 17-second period and a light ESE breeze. The wave energy is weak (254), and it’s honestly just ordinary – not worth paddling out for. Tuesday afternoon is much the same, with about 2ft and a score that says "surfable but very ordinary."

Now, Wednesday 8 July is where it picks up. Morning brings a glassy 3ft SW groundswell, period hanging around 19 seconds. Wave energy jumps to moderate (594), and the wind is dead calm from the east. That’s clean. By the afternoon, we’re seeing 4ft SW swell, still glassy, with wave energy climbing to 790. This is the real standout of the first week – Wednesday afternoon is your window for clean, fun waves on a long-period groundswell. That long period (18-19 seconds) means nice shaped lines, but at a beach break like Squeaky, it might wall up and close out a bit. Still, it’s the best on offer.

Thursday 9 July serves up another glassy morning with 3ft SW swell and zero wind – dead calm. Wave energy moderate (291). It’s clean but very small. The afternoon drops off.

Friday 10 July gets a bit messy in the morning with a cross-onshore breeze, but the afternoon clears right up. Glassy again, about 3ft SW swell, wave energy at 353. You could get a few there.

Then it all goes pear-shaped. From Saturday 11 July through to Wednesday 22 July, the wind turns onshore and strong – 18 to 28 mph from the northwest and west. Swell sizes jump up, especially around Sunday 12 July (7 to 8ft WSW cross-on, messy), Monday 13 July (8ft SW onshore, 3,900 energy – that’s strong wave energy, but blown out), and Tuesday 14 July (7ft WSW onshore). These are expert-only waves if you’re keen to wrestle a washing machine, but honestly, the wind ruins it. Too big for beginners, and for the experienced, the quality is poor. The setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing through most of this stretch.

There’s a long gap here with no good recommendations – about a week of poor conditions. The only flicker of hope comes Thursday 16 July morning with a marginal swell (4ft SW) and light cross-onshore, but it’s still poor.

Friday 17 and into the weekend of 18-19 July? More strong cross-onshore wind, lumpy, messy. Not worth it. The swell stays small to moderate but the wind just won’t let up.

So, to wrap it up: Wednesday 8 July afternoon is the clear winner. Get out there for that glassy, 4ft SW groundswell with clean conditions. Thursday morning 9 July is a backup for a glassy paddle. After that, it’s a long stretch of wind-affected slop until maybe the very end of the forecast window. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s looking like a write-off from Saturday onwards.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on the sky.

Rusty.

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