Squeaky Beach (Wilsons Promontory) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. I’ve had a hard look at Squeaky Beach (Wilsons Promontory) for the next couple of weeks, and I’ll be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch. There’s surf on the table, but the conditions are against us for most of it, so we’ve gotta pick our moments carefully. The water’s sitting around 57°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, no surprises there.

We kick off on Thursday the 16th of July. The afternoon sees a 4ft SW swell, with a long period of 15 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy, and the combined energy is moderate at 799. Problem is, the wind’s onshore from the WSW at 9 mph, making it a bit messy. The swell’s decent, but the quality is marginal at best, so it’s more of a look-and-see session if you’re desperate.

Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th are flat and disappointing. Friday morning has a 4ft SW swell with a very long 16-second period, but the wind is cross-onshore, and the conditions are poor. Afternoon’s a bit better with a light onshore breeze, but still only marginal. Saturday’s similar – 3ft and 3ft swells with cross-onshore winds, nothing to write home about.

Sunday the 19th through to Wednesday the 22nd is a dead zone. Swells drop to 1ft to 3ft, periods shorten, and the wind is constantly cross-onshore or fresh and choppy. The combined energy drops into the weak range (152 to 367), and the scores are all zero or one. Just not worth paddling out.

Then on Thursday the 23rd of July, the swell jumps up – 6ft in the morning and 8ft in the afternoon, from the WSW with a short period of 8 to 9 seconds. The energy is moderate to strong (456 and 813), but the wind is howling at 28 mph, strong onshore and messy. This is big, raw, and ugly. For the experienced crew, it might be a challenge, but for most of us, it’s a day to stay on the beach.

Friday the 24th is the standout for the whole outlook. Swell hits 8ft from the SW with a 14-second period, and the combined energy is very strong – 1914 in the morning, and even bigger at 2670 in the afternoon. That’s serious groundswell energy. But here’s the catch: the wind is onshore at 25 to 28 mph, and the conditions are described as poor. For a spot that’s fairly exposed to a SW swell, this would normally be pumping – point breaks and reefs would love that long period – but at a beach break like this, the onshore wind will chop it up. The swell’s over 8ft, so it’s strictly for experts, but with the wind so strong, it’s more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle session.

Saturday the 25th through to Tuesday the 29th is a run of poor to marginal conditions. Swells range from 5ft to 8ft, periods from 7 to 18 seconds, but the wind stays cross-onshore or onshore and fresh to strong. The energy on the 27th of July is massive – 3854 in the morning, 3521 in the afternoon, with a 7ft to 7ft SW swell and a very long 17 to 18-second period. That’s huge, clean groundswell potential, but the fresh cross-onshore wind (19 mph) will ruin the surface. Again, too big for beginners, and only the hardcore experts might find a window.

Things finally calm down on Wednesday the 30th of July. The morning has a 3ft SW swell with a 13-second period, and the afternoon drops to 2ft with light onshore wind at 3 mph. The combined energy is weak (308 and 305), and it’s still marginal. Thursday the 31st is similar – 2ft swells with light cross-shore winds.

So what’s the best on offer? Honestly, the standout moment is Friday the 24th of July. That 8ft SW groundswell with 14 seconds and over 2600 energy is proper. If you’re an expert and can find a sheltered corner – maybe a reef or point nearby – it could be magic, but at Squeaky Beach itself, the onshore wind kills the dream. For the everyday surfer, the only real chance is Thursday the 16th of July afternoon, but it’s just marginal. There are long gaps of several days with no recommendations – from the 19th to the 22nd, and again from the 25th to the 29th – where you’re better off doing something else. Forecasts can change, but for now, it’s a lean run. Keep your eyes peeled for a shift in the wind.

Rusty.

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