Squeaky Beach (Wilsons Promontory) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mate, I’m gonna level with you—this stretch of coast is going through a proper rough patch. Over the next 16 days, there’s hardly a session that’s worth talking about, and even the "good" ones are just a little less bad than the rest. Expect a lot of down time, but there’s a tiny glimmer of hope way out at the end.

Let’s start at Squeaky Beach (Wilsons Promontory). The water temp is about 56°F, which is dead average for this time of year—nothing out of the ordinary. The beach catches a fair bit of swell, but the wind just won’t cooperate.

From Friday, 21 August, right through to Thursday, 3 September, it’s a real struggle. The swell is often there, but it’s sloppy, onshore, or just plain messy. On Friday afternoon, 21 August, we’ve got about 5ft of WSW groundswell with a 15-second period, but that 30 km/h WNW wind is blowing straight onshore, making it poor surf. The combined energy reads 1318 (moderate), but the wind kills it. Saturday, 22 August, gets even worse—around 8ft of swell Saturday morning with 40 km/h wind, and by afternoon it’s 8ft and still onshore. That’s big, messy, and expert-only if you’re crazy. The next few days are a mix of onshore and cross-onshore winds, with swell dropping to under 3ft by Monday, 24 August. The energy dips to 391 (weak) and the waves are choppy. There’s a brief glimmer Tuesday morning, 25 August, with a light NE breeze and clean conditions, but the swell is only 3ft and the energy is just 219 (weak). Surfable, but ordinary. The rest of the week is a write-off—fresh breezes, lumpy seas, and poor surf.

The second week doesn’t offer much relief. From Friday, 28 August, through to Wednesday, 3 September, it’s a similar story: onshore winds, moderate breezes, and poor conditions. On Friday, 28 August, there’s a 5ft SW groundswell with a 17-18 second period (very long period), and the energy climbs to 1249 (moderate), but the wind is cross-on or onshore, so it’s messy. That long period groundswell would need a point or reef to shape up, but Squeaky Beach is a beach break, so it’s likely to break too straight. No good.

Then, on Friday morning, 4 September, something shifts. We get a 4ft SW groundswell, 16-second period, with a light NNE breeze (cross-off). The combined energy is 786 (moderate), and the forecast says "expect very good surf conditions." This is the one standout in the whole window. The clean conditions and solid groundswell make it the best bet for a paddle. It’s a promising session, but keep in mind we’re talking about a forecast nearly two weeks out, so don’t lock it in just yet. The afternoon of 4 September quickly gets ruined by a 40 km/h NW wind and thunderstorms, so make it a morning mission.

After that, Saturday, 5 September, is back to poor conditions with strong winds.

So, bottom line: the first two weeks are flat or blown out. The only real chance is the morning of Friday, 4 September. If you can wait that long, it might just be worth it.

Rusty.

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