San Mateo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s on offer at San Mateo over the next couple of weeks.

Look, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it: the first few days are a bit of a write-off. We’ve got a bit of a wait on our hands. The first real whisper of something surfable won’t show up until Monday the 20th of July, and even then it’s marginal. The week starts with a small, weak SW groundswell running about 2ft with a period of 14 seconds, but the wind is all over the shop. The combined energy is moderate (211-280), but it’s a bit of a tease. The morning of Monday the 20th will see a clean, cross-off breeze, offering the best chance of a half-decent wave if you’re keen. After that, it’s back to choppy, cross-shore wind for the rest of the day.

Tuesday the 21st and Wednesday the 22nd are a mixed bag. The swell picks up a touch, with a 3ft, 13-second SW groundswell on Tuesday morning and a combined energy of 451 (moderate), but the wind stays cross-shore. The conditions are only “marginal,” so don’t expect perfection. Still, a light breeze on those mornings might give you a few clean-ish ones if you’re patient.

Thursday the 23rd is a proper dog. The swell is tiny and messy, with a very long period of 26 seconds on the morning, but it’s only 1ft of SW windswell. The energy is moderate (251), but the wind is cross-shore, making it a total washout. Don’t bother.

Now, hold on to your board, because Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th are where things start to get interesting. The swell builds to 2ft-3ft with a very long period of 21-19 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 775 (strong). The wind is light, with a slight air on Saturday morning. This is a long-period groundswell, so it’s going to be a bit more powerful and the sets will be spaced out, but at a point break like San Mateo, that’s often a good thing—it’ll shape up nicely. It’s marginal, but these are the best windows in the early part of the forecast.

The real standout, the one you’ve been waiting for, is Wednesday the 29th of July. This is the pick of the bunch. We’ve got a 5ft SW groundswell pushing in with a period of 15 seconds, and the combined energy is a solid 1126 (strong). The key here is the wind: in the morning, it’s glassy, dead calm. The conditions are described as “excellent for experienced surfers,” and that’s because this is a powerful swell. At 5ft, it’s solid, solid stuff. This is for the lads who know what they’re doing. The water temperature is about average for this time of year, so no need for a thick suit.

Thursday the 30th of July is also a very good shout. The swell drops a touch to 4ft, still with a 14-second period, but the morning is glassy again. The combined energy is 609 (moderate to strong), and the forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” If you miss the 29th, this is your backup plan. It’s a bit smaller, so it’s a bit more manageable for the average surfer, but still powerful.

After that, the swell fades through the end of July and into August. The first few days of the new month see a slow decline, with the swell dropping to 3ft-4ft and the combined energy falling back to the moderate range (365-788). The wind stays mostly cross-shore or cross-on, so the quality drops back to marginal. By Monday the 3rd of August, it’s a rainy, messy morning with 3ft SW swell and poor conditions.

So, to sum it up: the first half of the week is a dud. The best bet, the absolute standout, is Wednesday the 29th of July for the experts, and Thursday the 30th of July for those who want a slightly more friendly wave. The rest of the run is for the die-hards with low expectations.

Rusty.

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