San Mateo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ve been staring at the charts for San Mateo, and I’ll level with you – it’s a tough stretch ahead for a point break that’s normally a gem when it’s on. This is an inconsistent spot, and the next 16 days are going to test your patience. We’re looking at a lot of poor surf conditions, with the first real glimmer of hope not showing up until Thursday, 13 August. Even then, we’ve got to wade through some pretty average stuff.

From Saturday 8 August right through until Wednesday 12 August, it’s a write-off. The energy is there – you can see it in the numbers, like Monday morning 10 August with combined swell energy of 688 (moderate to strong) – but the wind is just ruining it. It’s cross-shore or cross-onshore, with a chop that’s going to make you work for nothing. The swell is small, mostly around 1 ft to 3 ft, coming from the SW, which is a bit off the optimum NW direction for this point. Water temps are sitting around 80°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year – that anomaly of 8° is very unusual, so you can ditch the wetsuit.

Now, here’s the first little standout. Thursday 13 August morning – we finally get some love. The wind goes glassy from the NNW at 3 mph, and the swell is a clean 2 ft from the SW, with a very long period of 16 seconds. That means groundswell energy and nice, lined-up waves at the point. The combined energy is 422 (moderate). It’s small, but it’ll be clean and fun for a session on the point. Expect good surf conditions. Crowds are possible here at San Mateo, so you’ll want to be early.

Friday 14 August morning has a bit more size – 4 ft from the SW with a 17-second period and energy of 989 (moderate to strong) – but the wind is cross, and it’s marginal. Not a disaster, but not the clean offering of Thursday.

Then, the true standout of the whole forecast lands on Monday 17 August morning. This is the one to circle on the calendar. The wind drops to glassy again – 3 mph from the SW – and the swell holds at a solid 3 ft from the SW, with a 13-second period and combined energy of 592 (moderate). The forecast says “expect very good surf conditions.” For an inconsistent spot like San Mateo, this is a gift. It’ll be clean, lined up, and perfect for the point. Crowds are possible, so get in there.

After that, it fades back into average wind and poor conditions through to the end of the window, with a brief tease on Sunday 23 August morning when the wind goes cross-off and clean, but the swell is only 2 ft. If you’re desperate, that’s an option.

So, to sum it up: the 13th is a little taste, but Monday 17 August morning is your best bet – glassy, clean, and decent energy for the point. The rest of the run is mostly for the dedicated.

Rusty.

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