San Mateo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what San Mateo has in store for us over the next couple of weeks. It’s not a classic run, and the early days are gonna test your patience. We’re starting on Wednesday the 19th of August with a wobbly little swell and crummy cross-shore winds, so expect more frustration than fun. The whole first week looks pretty grim, with only fleeting moments of something rideable. Hold tight though, because around the end of the month and into September, a pulse of stronger energy shows up, but it comes with its own set of problems.

The First Week (19th – 25th August) – A Tough Slog

Right from the get-go, Wednesday the 19th is a write-off. A small 3ft SW swell with a 14-second period is about the only thing going for it, but the cross-shore winds are just making a mess. The combined energy is a moderate 224, but with those winds, it’s not worth paddling out. Thursday the 20th offers a tiny glimmer – Thursday morning has a light breeze and a 3ft SW swell (energy of 223), but the 'marginal' tag and cross-shore conditions mean it’s a real gamble. Friday the 21st is even smaller, with 2ft surf and cross-onshore winds – honestly, you’re better off staying in bed. Saturday morning the 22nd is the one bright spot in the first week. The wind goes light and cross-offshore, giving us clean conditions for a 2ft SW swell. The energy is a moderate 184, and with a 14-second period, those waves will have some shape. It’s not big, but it’ll be the best surf you’ll find in a bad week. Sunday through Tuesday just stay small, messy, and frustrating with mostly cross or cross-onshore winds.

The Lull and a Flicker (26th – 27th August)

Wednesday the 26th is a true low point. The swell drops to 1ft and the energy plummets to a weak 23. The period is a shocking 5 seconds – that’s pure wind chop, not a wave you want to be on. Thursday the 27th is another day to skip, with onshore winds chopping up a small 2ft swell.

The Second Week Build (28th August – 3rd September) – Promise with a Side of Mess

Now things get more interesting. Friday the 28th of August morning shows some promise. A 2ft SW swell with a long 18-second period pushes the energy up to a strong 522. The wind is light and cross-shore, so it’ll be clean-ish, but it’s still considered marginal. That long period means these waves will have a nice, powerful pulse, but at a beach break like San Mateo, it might be a bit too straight. By the afternoon, the swell jumps to 4ft, energy roaring to 1094, but the wind turns cross-onshore. It’s frustrating. The standout has to be Saturday the 29th of August morning. We’ve got a solid 6ft SW swell pumping in from the north-west, with a combined energy of 1498 – that’s strong. The wind is just a slight air, barely a breath, so the waves will be clean and lined up. That 16-second period makes it a real groundswell, so it will be powerful. But at 6ft, it’s getting into intermediate territory, and with the inconsistency and crowds being possible at San Mateo, it might be a bit of a circus. For the experienced crew, this is the one to target. Sunday the 30th holds similar size (5ft) but the wind stays a problem by the afternoon. The following week sees the swell slowly dropping from 4ft down to 2ft, with mornings offering the best chance at clean conditions from a light breeze, but the afternoons are always ruined by onshore wind. The window is narrow.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is mostly a bust. The best chance you have is Saturday morning the 22nd for a small, clean wave. The real event is Saturday morning the 29th, when a solid 6ft long-period groundswell hits under glassy skies – that’s the one for the experts. For the rest of us, keep an eye on the mornings for a clean-ish window, but don't expect perfection.

Rusty.

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