San Mateo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, I'm gonna level with ya – the next 16 days at San Mateo are a real test of patience. The ocean's got some energy, but the wind just won't play ball for most of it. We're looking at a long stretch of mediocre to poor conditions before a potential window of excellence right at the end.

The first week and a half is a grind. Starting Saturday the 22nd, we've got a tiny 2ft swell from the SW with a decent 13-second period, but a cross-shore wind at 16 mph is chopping it all up. The water is a notable 80°, a huge 8° warmer than average for this time of year, which is very unusual. The combined swell energy is a modest 212, but it doesn't matter with that wind. This pattern sticks around for days. Through Sunday the 23rd, Monday the 24th, right into the next week, the swell stays tiny – between 1.0ft and 2ft – and the wind is either cross or cross-on, keeping the surf poor. The best we get is a couple of "marginal" morning windows, like on Thursday the 27th with a light breeze, but it's still only 2ft and cross-shore. The energy rarely climbs above 300, so it's just weak and messy.

We finally see a pulse of energy arrive on Friday the 28th. The morning shows 3ft from the SW with an 18-second period, and the combined energy jumps to 576. The wind is a light cross-shore, making it marginal. The afternoon, however, gets bigger at 4ft with a 977 energy reading, but the wind swings cross-on at 12 mph, ruining it. Saturday the 29th sees the biggest swell of the first week, 5ft from the SW, and the energy hits a strong 1185. But again, the wind is a moderate cross-shore, making it a messy, choppy mess. Not worth it for paddle surfing in my book – more of a kite day.

The real story is the end of the run. The surf really starts to look promising on Thursday the 3rd of September. Morning brings a 4ft SW swell with a very long 19-second period, and the energy is a powerful 1180. The wind is a light cross-on, but the afternoon gets even better: 5ft from the SW, same long 19-second period, energy climbs to 1390, and the wind turns *on* shore. It's still a bit marginal, but you can feel the change coming.

Then, Friday the 4th of September is the standout. The morning is absolutely glassy. 6ft of SW groundswell with a 17-second period – that's a very long period, meaning proper groundswell with clean lines and long gaps between sets. The combined energy is a massive 1882, showing strong wave power. The wind is glassy. This is the moment. For experienced surfers, this is excellent. The 6ft size is pushing it for beginners, but for the crew who know what they're doing, San Mateo is going to fire. The afternoon stays 6ft but the wind swings cross-on at 12 mph, so get on it early.

The following Saturday the 5th and Sunday the 6th still have OK swell – 5ft and 4ft – but the wind is back to being a problem, so it's a steep drop-off after that Friday morning window.

So, to wrap it up: you've got a long, frustrating gap of poor conditions from now until Thursday the 3rd. The one true standout is Friday morning, the 4th of September. Swell is 6ft from the SW, glassy conditions, and the energy is pumping. It's a long-range call, so keep an eye on it, but that's the one to circle on the calendar. The rest is a write-off.

Rusty.

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