San Mateo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here, running the numbers for San Mateo. We’ve got a bit of a slow cooker on our hands this forecast period. It’s not going to be pumping every day, but there are a couple of windows where it could be well worth the paddle out.

For a spot that’s fairly exposed to the northwest swell window, we’re seeing a long, drawn-out run of small, choppy surf for most of the first week. The water temp is sitting at a very unusual 81°, which is a solid 10° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s a real anomaly, feels like a summer bath out there.

Things start off pretty ordinary. The first real chance to get wet is Friday the 11th in the morning. We’ve got a 3ft groundswell from the SW with a solid 14-second period, but the real story is the glassy conditions – that 3 mph breeze from the SW is virtually nothing. The combined energy is a moderate 430, but those clean, glassy conditions will make it feel way better than the size suggests. It’s a real standout for the early part of the run, especially for a tricky point break that can be inconsistent. You’ll have the place to yourself though; crowds are only sometimes.

The following few days are a write-off with messy cross-shore and cross-onshore breezes blowing out the small 1ft to 3ft swell. There’s a long gap here with no real recommendations. The morning of Thursday the 17th breaks the slump with a clean, cross-off wind from the south at 9 mph and a small but clean 3ft SW swell. It’s a short window, but clean at a point break is always a good look.

Looking way out, the standout of the entire outlook is Friday morning, September 25th. This is the one to circle on the calendar. The models are showing a very long period groundswell of 21 seconds from the SW, with a combined energy of 536 – that’s solid juice for this break. The wave height is only forecast at 2ft, but with that 21-second period, it’s going to have serious push and length. More importantly, we’ve got a light 6 mph cross-off breeze from the south keeping it clean. For a point break like San Mateo that loves those long-period lines from the NW to SW, this could be firing... just remember, this is a long-range call, so don’t bet the house on it yet, but it looks promising.

San Mateo is an advanced wave, and with that long period, it’s best suited for those who know where to sit. It’s inconsistent at the best of times, so when it lines up like that, you won’t want to miss it.

Rusty.

Read more