San Mateo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – this forecast for San Mateo is a tough one to write. We’ve got a 16-day window but the start is a bit of a write-off, so we’re looking at a long wait for anything decent. The first real sniff of a wave worth paddling out for doesn’t show up until Monday the 6th of July, and even then, it’s a bit ordinary.

The opening Monday the 6th has a 5ft swell from the southwest, but with a cross-onshore wind and fairly choppy conditions, it’s feeling more like a frustrating session than a classic. The water’s sitting at a very unusual 80°, which is over 5° warmer than normal for this time of year – feels like bathwater out there. The combined energy is strong at 1438, but the wind and chop ruin the party.

Tuesday morning the 7th is slightly cleaner – 5ft southwest swell with a light cross-shore breeze. It’s still only marginal, but you might catch a few. The energy drops to 999, which is moderate. That afternoon and the rest of the week into the weekend? Honestly, don’t bother. The swell drops off, the wind swings onshore or cross, and the scores are all low. From Wednesday the 8th through Sunday the 12th of July, we’ve got a gap of several days where the surf is just poor – small, weak, and choppy. The energy drops into the hundreds or even the twenties by Friday morning (26).

The one small, notable exception pops up on Monday morning the 13th of July. We’ve got glassy conditions with a slight air – dead calm – and a 2ft southwest swell. The period is a decent 13 seconds, so it’s a groundswell with some shape. The combined energy is weak (136), so it’s tiny and weak, but if you’ve got a longboard and just want to be out there in clean water, that’s your moment. After that, it’s back to poor, messy conditions right through the rest of the second week.

Into the third week, hold onto that sliver of hope. Tuesday morning the 21st of July shows a 4ft southwest swell with a 14-second period and a gentle cross-shore wind. The energy is moderate-strong at 668, and the conditions look reasonable. It’s still a long way out, so treat it as promising but not a sure thing. The afternoon turns onshore again, so if that morning window firms up, it could be the best on offer for the whole run.

To be honest, this is one of those stretches where there’s no standout day. The best bet, if you’re desperate, is that early morning glass on Monday the 13th for a tiny clean session, or keep an eye on Tuesday the 21st for a proper wave. The rest is just waiting.

Rusty.

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