San Mateo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty, and I'm looking at the surf situation for San Mateo over the next 16 days. This is a classic point break that's exposed to the north-west, and it's an advanced spot with an inconsistent wave. The water's sitting at a warm 81° and that's a full 9° above normal for this time of year – it's far warmer than average, so you'll feel that difference.

Let's be straight with you: the first week is a tough slog. We've got a real gap here with no good surf on offer right through until early Thursday morning on the 13th of August. The swell is tiny, the wind is mostly cross or cross-onshore, and the energy is weak. For example, Tuesday morning the 11th has a 2ft swell from the south-west with a moderate cross breeze and a combined energy of just 179 – that's weak stuff. Wednesday the 12th is even worse, with a 1ft swell in the morning and energy down to 51. You're better off doing something else.

Thursday morning the 13th of August is our first real glimmer of hope. Early on, we get glassy conditions with a light offshore wind from the WSW at just 3 mph. The swell is only 2ft but it's a long-period groundswell from the south-west with a period of 16 seconds – that's proper energy. The combined energy is moderate at 395. This is a point break, so the long period suits it. It's inconsistent and an advanced wave, so it's not for everyone, but if you're skilled and patient, the morning could deliver a few clean, lined-up runners. The afternoon, however, gets choppy again with a cross-onshore wind, so time it right.

Friday morning the 14th of August sees a jump in size with 5ft from the south-west, but the wind is a cross-shore at 12 mph, creating a cross-chop and a score of 2 out of 10. The combined energy is strong at 1336, but the conditions are marginal. The crowd factor is listed as "sometimes," so you might have some company. It's a standout for size, but the wind is a real caveat. Saturday the 15th holds similar 4ft swell but with gentler cross-shore winds and a combined energy of 888 – still moderate energy. Again, the morning might be your best bet, but it's still marginal.

After that, from Sunday the 16th through to the end of the 16-day window, it's mostly a grind. The swell drops back to 1ft to 4ft, the wind is often cross or cross-onshore, and the combined energy is weak to moderate. Tuesday morning the 18th of August has a 5ft swell with a 16-second period and a light cross-shore wind, giving a combined energy of 893 – that's a moderate pulse – but it's still only a 2 out of 10 due to tide and conditions. The long period and moderate energy could make for some interesting sets on the point, but it's inconsistent and difficult.

Overall, the best bet in this 16-day window is the Thursday morning the 13th of August for clean, glassy conditions and a long-period swell, even though it's small. If you're after bigger, more powerful waves, the Friday morning the 14th of August has size, but you'll be dealing with a cross-chop. Keep your expectations in check.

Rusty.

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