San Mateo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let's talk about what's on the menu for the next couple of weeks. We've got a long window ahead, but it ain't gonna be all glory.

The overall pattern for the region is a drawn-out, marginal affair, with a whole lot of "meh" before we get a sniff of something decent. The water temp is running a very unusual 81°, which is 9° warmer than normal for this time of year—that's a standout detail, very unusual.

The first hint of any kind of worthwhile surf doesn't roll in until Saturday morning, August 29th, at San Mateo. Even then, it's a marginal call. We're looking at a 5 ft SW swell with a period of 16 seconds, so that's a proper groundswell with long gaps between sets. The energy is moderate (1093), but the wind is a cross-shore breeze from the SSW at 9 mph, which will keep things a touch lumpy. It's not a write-off, but it's not firing either.

After that, things turn pretty bleak. From Sunday the 30th all the way through to the morning of Thursday, September 3rd, it's a real slog. A lot of small 3 ft to 4 ft SW swells with short periods (12-14 seconds) and mostly onshore or cross-onshore winds. This stretch is straight up poor for surfing.

We finally get a slight nudge upwards starting Thursday morning, September 3rd. The swell bumps to 4 ft but with a longer period of 18 seconds, and the wind goes very light from the SW (3 mph). It's still described as marginal, but it's the first time the conditions start to hint at something halfway clean. The energy sits at 772.

The standout window, and the one you want to circle on the calendar, is the morning of Thursday, September 10th. That morning at San Mateo, we get a very light offshore breeze from the S at just 3 mph, making for clean conditions. The swell is a modest 4 ft from the SW, but with a solid 15-second period, it’ll pack a punch. The forecaster is calling for "expect very good surf conditions," which is the only real positive call in the entire run. The energy is moderate at 807, but with that offshore wind and a decent period groundswell, this is the best bet on offer.

The only other morning that looks like it might be worth a look is Wednesday, September 9th, with a 4 ft, 16-second SW swell and a light cross-shore wind (6 mph from the SSW). It's not the standout, but it's a decent fallback.

Everything after that drops off again quickly, with small, weak swells and onshore wind dominating the second week from September 11th onwards. It's like chasing a ghost.

Hope for the morning of the 10th. Everything else is just a gamble.

- Rusty

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