San Mateo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here, looking at the long-range forecast for San Mateo. Let’s be real, the next couple of weeks are going to test your patience. There’s some swell, sure, but it’s small, and the wind is against us for most of it. It’s not all bad, but you have to be selective.

Right off the bat, from Monday the 14th through Wednesday the 16th, it’s pretty grim. We’ve got tiny 0.6m to 0.8m of southwest swell, but the wind is mostly cross or cross-on, so it’s going to be chopped up. The energy in the water is moderate, reading 244 to 473, but it’s not clean. Water temp is a real talking point at 27°, which is 5° warmer than normal – that’s far warmer than usual for this time of year.

Thursday the 17th morning looks a bit better with a cross-offshore breeze and 0.8m of SW swell on a 13-second period. The energy is moderate at 338. It’s a point break, so that longer period might help, but it won't be anything special. The afternoon blows out again.

Then Friday 18th and Saturday 19th are back to small, messy surf. We drop to 0.5m to 0.7m, with periods stretching from 13 to 21 seconds. That long period is a bit of a worry on a point – it can make it break too straight. Sunday 20th and Monday 21st are a total write-off with onshore winds.

Now, the standout. Wednesday the 23rd. Morning. It’s completely glassy. No wind. The swell is small, 0.7m from the southwest with a 14-second period, and the energy is a moderate 252. For a point break, that glass is everything. It’s not big, but it will be clean, and that’s a huge plus after all the chop. Thursday the 24th also has some clean spells, though the swell drops to 0.5m to 0.6m.

After that, it gets marginal again. Friday 25th and Saturday 26th see the swell nudge up to 1.0m to 1.1m, but the wind goes cross and cross-on, so it’s messy again. Not worth it.

Looking further ahead, Sunday the 27th morning shows some promise with a glassy start and 0.9m of SW swell. Energy is moderate at 372. It’s a long way out, so treat it as a “maybe.” The afternoon turns onshore. Monday 28th the swell shifts to the northwest and the period drops to 10 seconds – short-period windswell, not great. Tuesday 29th has a clean morning with a cross-offshore breeze and 0.6m of long-period SW swell, but it’s weak.

So, the best bets are the glassy mornings. Wednesday the 23rd is the one to circle on the calendar. Sunday the 27th is the other possibility, but it’s far out. The rest is mostly average, onshore slop. With the wind this messy, the setup might be better for the kite surfers than the paddle crew.

Stay patient, keep an eye on that Wednesday, and I’ll see you out there.

Rusty.

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