San Mateo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty average for San Mateo. We’ve got a solid run of swell on the horizon, but the wind is going to be the main character in this story, and not in a good way. We’re looking at a lot of cross and cross-on conditions that are going to mess up what could be some decent waves. The water is a crazy 80° right now, which is a full 9° warmer than normal for this time of year—that’s a big deal, keep the spring suit at home.

First up, Tuesday the 4th. There’s a little 2ft SW swell rolling in with a 12-second period, giving us 141 in combined energy, but it’s weak. The morning is cross and the afternoon is cross-on with 15 mph winds. It’s going to be a mess. No good.

Wednesday the 5th is a bit better. The morning has a clean 2ft SW swell with a 13-second period and a gentle cross-off breeze. That’s surfable, but honestly, it’s pretty ordinary. The energy is still low at 182. The afternoon turns cross-on and choppy again. Not worth calling in sick for.

Thursday the 6th, the energy jumps up to 376, but the swell is still small at 3ft. The morning is clean-ish with a light cross breeze, but the forecast calls it marginal. The afternoon is still cross-on and choppy. We’re just waiting for something to click.

Friday the 7th is our first real glimmer of hope. The morning has a 3ft SW swell with a long 16-second period, and the energy is up to 572. Winds are almost nothing, just a slight air with light cross ripples. That’s about as clean as it gets around here. It’s still a bit small, but the long period from the SW is a good sign. The afternoon, though, gets blown out by a 9 mph cross-on.

The weekend is a write-off. Saturday the 8th and Sunday the 9th see the swell drop back down and the wind stays cross or cross-on. Both mornings are poor, and the afternoons are choppy. We’re looking at a few days of nothing.

Monday the 10th and Tuesday the 11th bring back some longer-period swell (15 seconds) and the energy is moderate, but the wind is still the problem. It’s cross in the morning and cross-on in the afternoon. The morning waves are 3ft, but the conditions are just marginal.

Wednesday the 12th is a dead day. Energy drops to 54, and the swell is tiny. Not worth paddling out.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. From Thursday the 13th, we see the swell start to slowly build. The morning has 2ft at 18 seconds, and the energy is building at 441. Still light winds, but it’s cross. The real standout is looking like Saturday the 15th. The morning has the best combo of the whole run: a 5ft SW swell with a 15-second period and a big jump in energy to 1156. The wind is light and cross, which won't be perfect, but it's the biggest, most powerful swell we've seen. This is the one to watch. It’s the best quality of the whole period, but it’s still not going to be glassy. The afternoon gets ruined by cross-on winds again.

After that, Sunday the 16th and Monday the 17th still have 4ft of swell, but the energy drops off and the wind stays in that cross/cross-on pattern. It’s more of the same. The following week, from the 18th onwards, we see a bit more size building again, with the 19th showing 5ft SW swell and strong energy at 990, but again, the cross-on afternoon winds kill it.

So, here’s the bottom line. The standout is the Saturday morning session on the 15th of August. It’s not perfect, but it’s the biggest, most powerful swell of the window with a good long period. The light cross breeze will be the biggest issue, but it’s our best shot. Before that, the Friday morning on the 7th is your only other real option, but it’s small. There’s a big gap of nothing from Saturday the 8th through to Wednesday the 12th, so don't get too excited for that stretch. This is one of those times where you gotta pick your moments. The long-period swells are coming, but we need a wind shift to really make it good.

Stay patient, keep an eye on the forecast, and be ready for that Saturday morning.

Rusty.

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