San Mateo Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

To be straight with you, the opening stretch is a tough one. We’ve got a solid swell coming in from the SW, but the wind is a real problem. Thursday afternoon the 30th of July has a 4ft SW swell at 13 seconds, but the wind is howling out of the SW at 16 mph, turning it into a messy, choppy cross-shore mess. The water is a toasty 81°, which is a massive 9° warmer than normal for this time of year – that’s very unusual, but it’s about the only thing that’s nice about it. The combined energy is moderate (417), but it’s all for nothing with that wind. It’s a no-go.

Friday, the 31st, is more of the same. A 3ft swell, but the wind stays on it, making for poor conditions. The weekend follows with a drop in size – 2ft Saturday morning, 2ft Sunday morning – and while the wind eases a little, the surf is marginal at best. The energy drops to moderate (215-302). It’s not surfable in any meaningful way.

We then have a few days of very small, poor surf. Monday the 3rd and Tuesday the 4th are tiny, with the swell dropping to 2ft and weak energy (82). The afternoons are a write-off with strong cross-onshore wind.

Wednesday morning, the 5th of August, offers a tiny glimmer of hope. The swell is only 2ft from the SW, but the wind goes glassy. The S wind is a mere 3 mph, making it almost dead calm. The combined energy is weak (119), so it’s not a wave you’ll be riding, but it’s the first time the water looks clean. The cross-on shore kicks in again by the afternoon.

The following week sees a slight uptick in swell energy. Thursday morning the 6th of August has a 3ft SW swell (13 seconds) with a light cross-shore wind, bringing the energy up to moderate (472). It’s still rated as marginal, but it’s a step up.

Now, keep an eye on Friday morning, the 7th of August. The swell is 3ft, but the period stretches to a very long 16 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell. The energy is strong (572). The wind is light and cross-shore. This is a promising window for a point break, but the long period will make it break a bit straight at the beach. The afternoon is ruined by onshore winds, but that morning has potential.

The real stand-out, the one that gets my blood pumping, is Wednesday morning, the 12th of August. The swell is 3ft but the period is an incredible 17 seconds. The combined energy is strong (567). The wind is a light, cross-onshore breeze from the WSW at 6 mph. This is a very long-period groundswell. For a point break like San Mateo, this is the best of the forecast. The water will be clean, the waves will have shape, and the long gaps between sets will make paddling out a breeze. This is the one to circle on the calendar. The afternoon the same day has a 2ft wave with an 18-second period, but a stronger cross-onshore wind will mess it up.

The rest of the second week is mostly small and marginal. There are a few mornings with light winds and 2ft-3ft swell, but nothing that compares to that Wednesday morning. The 13th and 14th have some 16-second period energy, but the wind is never quite clean enough to make it a standout.

Overall, it’s a slow start. The first 7 days are a write-off. The best bet is the Wednesday the 12th of August. It’s a long way off, so don’t book the day off just yet, but keep an eye on it. The swell at San Mateo is coming from the SW, which is slightly off the optimum NW direction, but with that period and that light wind, it’s still the best of a quiet bunch.

Rusty.

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