Rosarito Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this forecast period is a struggle for Rosarito. The surf is small, weak, and mostly messy for the next couple weeks, with the wind turning cross-onshore far too often. Swell heights stay between about 2ft and 4ft, with periods mostly in the 14 to 18 second range—an old groundswell that’s lost its steam. The combined energy sits in the moderate zone, mostly between 300 and 700, and it shows in the water: soft, broken lines, no power, hard to get stoked about.

The first few days—Tuesday the 11th and Wednesday the 12th—are honest about things: tiny waves, maybe knee-to-waist high, with light offshore wind early (WNW at 6–9 mph) keeping the surface clean, but there’s just no swell behind it. The water is sitting at 73°F, which is 5°F warmer than normal for this time of year—that’s notable, so at least you won’t freeze. But surf quality is poor to marginal, and even Wednesday afternoon is iffy.

From Thursday the 13th through Saturday the 15th, it gets more inconsistent and the wind switches to cross-onshore. Mornings are calmer, but the afternoon chop builds as the breeze hits 9–12 mph from the WNW. Swell inches up to 3–4ft, but the period drops to 15–16 seconds, and the energy stays weak. It’s the kind of surf you’d paddle out for if you’re desperate, but the shape is poor—fat faces, no push, and the tide just doesn’t cooperate. The combined energy bumps up Friday afternoon (618) and Saturday (682–690), but it doesn’t translate into quality.

Then comes a long dry spell—Sunday the 16th all the way to Saturday the 22nd—where it’s just poor. Swell stays around 2–3ft, period drops to 13–14 seconds, and the cross-onshore wind never lets up. The energy falls into the 300–500 range, and the early mornings are often the cleanest but still flat. No standout sessions in there. You’re better off leaving the board in the car.

There’s a hint of hope at the end of the window. Monday the 24th and especially Tuesday the 25th into Wednesday the 26th look like the swell might start waking up. Wednesday the 26th morning shows combined energy of 784, with 4ft at 16 seconds from the SW—still modest, but it’s the biggest push we’ve seen. The wind is cross-on from the NW at 9 mph, so it won’t be glassy, but if the sets line up, those exposed SW-facing sandbars could offer a few workable peaks. That Wednesday looks like the most promising of the run, but it’s still only a small wave, so keep the expectations in check.

Don’t write it off completely—the consistent nature of the break means it won’t stay this poor forever. The swell direction stays SW, which is a good sign, and once the period climbs back above 16 seconds and the energy pushes past 700, we’re on the edge of something. But for now, if you’re not a beginner who just wants to get wet, I’d hold off. Stay patient, watch the tide, and enjoy the warm water while it lasts.

— Rusty

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