Rapid Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Well, I’ll be honest with you – it’s gonna be a tough stretch for anyone looking to get wet. The next 16 days are a clean sweep of poor surf conditions at Rapid Bay, with not a single session worth paddling out for. From Monday the 27th of July right through to Tuesday the 11th of August, it’s a long, flat, or messy run. There’s a bit of a spike around the 29th of July and again on the 8th of August, but the winds and conditions kill any hope. Let’s walk through it.

The whole period kicks off with a weak, lumpy NW swell on Monday afternoon the 27th – 4 ft from the NW at a short 5 seconds, but a fresh 19 mph cross-onshore from the NNW just tears it apart. The combined energy is low at 96, and the water’s sitting at 58°, which is about average for the time of year. Don’t even think about it.

Tuesday the 28th sees a slight bump – 5 ft to 6 ft from the W, with the energy creeping up to 273 by the afternoon. But with 19 mph cross-onshore winds, it’s lumpy and messy. Wednesday the 29th drops off quick, down to 3 ft and then 2 ft, still cross-onshore. By Thursday the 30th, we’re down to 1 ft on glassy morning conditions – that’s the best wind all week – but there’s just no energy (16). It’s a flat, clean pond, not surf.

From Friday the 31st into the first week of August, the swell flatlines – 0.7 ft to 0.3 ft most days. A few mornings have light offshore or glassy winds (Monday the 3rd of August is glassy, Tuesday the 4th has a gentle offshore from the E), but there’s nothing to ride. The energy reads 1, 5, 16 – tiny stuff. You’d be better off swimming.

Then on Saturday the 8th of August, we get a shout – a 7 ft NNE swell rolls in for the morning, with a moderate cross-offshore from the NNE and clean conditions. The energy is strong at 267. But the swell period is only 6 seconds, so it’s short-period windswell, and at 7 ft, that’s borderline expert-only territory for a break that’s already inconsistent and sheltered. Worse, the wind is cross-off, so it won’t be holding shape well. The afternoon drops to 3 ft from the W with a longer 9-second period and moderate energy of 106, but then a cross-shore breeze chops it up.

Sunday the 9th of August brings another bump – 6 ft from the W in the morning, energy at 302, but that cross-onshore from the SW at 12-19 mph makes it a total mess. Monday the 10th fades fast, and by Tuesday the 11th we’re back to 1.0 ft and glassy with no power.

Look, Rapid Bay is a sheltered spot that needs a proper W swell and clean winds to fire, and this 16-day window has none of that. The best we get is a couple of days with energy over 200, but the winds are either onshore or cross-off, and the swell is short-period junk. For an inconsistent break like this, a blank run is pretty normal – don’t hold your breath. The forecasts can always change, but right now, this is a total write-off.

Rusty.

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