Conchalio Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's get into it.

Looking at the long-range for Conchalio, it's going to be a slow burner with a couple of clean windows. Nothing huge, but there are some solid, rideable days and one real standout if you can wait for it.

Friday the 11th starts it off, but it’s not doing much. There’s about 4ft of swell on a 15-second period from the southwest, but the wind is crossing onshore and making it a bit lumpy. Wave energy is moderate at 574 units. Not a great day to paddle out. Probably a better afternoon to just watch from the sand.

Saturday the 12th is a big step up. The morning has similar 3ft southwest swell, but the wind goes glassy. That’s the key. It’s clean, it’s lined up, and it’s perfect for the longboard. The energy is moderate at 425 units. This is your weekend pick, but go early because the onshore wind kicks in by the afternoon.

Sunday the 13th is smaller, down to 2ft. It’s surfable but nothing special, and the afternoon wind messes it up.

You’re looking at a real lull from Monday the 14th through Tuesday the 15th. The swell drops into the 2-2ft range. The periods are long, up to 19 seconds, but there’s just not enough water moving to make any real waves. Good time to fix your fins or work on the car.

Now, here’s the one you’ve been waiting for. Wednesday the 16th is the standout. The morning shows 4ft of southwest groundswell with a 16-second period. The combined energy jumps to a strong 1000 units, the biggest number in the whole forecast. And it’s glassy. This is the best combo of size, power, and clean conditions. It’s not huge, but it’s got enough push for a proper shortboard session. The afternoon will be blown out, but that morning is going to be worth the wait.

Thursday the 17th backs off to 4ft at 14 seconds and is still glassy in the morning. Energy is at a moderate 604 units. It's a great follow-up to Wednesday if you missed it.

Friday the 18th drops a bit to 3ft, and the period is coming down. Still clean in the morning but less energy. Saturday the 19th is smaller and there’s a chance of thunderstorms, but the morning still looks okay.

Sunday the 20th is a nice surprise. The swell comes back up to 3ft from the SSW but with a very long 19-second period. The energy jumps to a solid 838 units, and the wind is dead calm. This will be a clean, powerful swell that loves a point break or reef. Not bad at all.

Monday the 21st stays fun with 3ft at 18 seconds and a glassy morning. There’s a chance of a storm later, but the morning session is on.

Tuesday the 22nd is consistent, still 3ft, with a cross-offshore breeze in the morning keeping it clean. A solid, dependable day.

From Wednesday the 23rd through Friday the 25th, the pattern levels out. You’ve got 3-3ft of southwest swell with 13-15 second periods. Winds are light and cross-offshore in the mornings. It’s not epic, but it’s clean and consistent. Good, honest surf.

Finally, Saturday the 26th at the end of the window is interesting. The morning shows a jump to 5ft, but it’s short-period windswell at 8 seconds, which will be messy. However, the afternoon shows a new, long-period 19-second SSW swell arriving at 2ft with a huge energy jump to 675 units and offshore wind. This far out, it’s promising but uncertain. If that fills in, the following day could be exceptional.

Water temp is sitting around 86°, which is about 2° warmer than average. That’s a touch notable but not crazy for the area.

So, bottom line: Wednesday the 16th is the clear standout, and Saturday morning the 12th is the best of the smaller windows.

- Rusty

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