Conchalio Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the menu for Conchalio over the next couple of weeks.

We’re looking at a solid run of surf, but it’s not all going to be perfect. The best windows are going to be the mornings, especially when the wind drops out and the ocean goes glassy. The real standout is going to be the Friday morning, July 24th, and then again the following Tuesday morning, July 28th. Those are the ones you want to circle on the calendar.

The pattern starts from Wednesday, July 22nd. The morning is looking good—clean, glassy conditions with a 2ft SW swell. The energy is there at 251 (moderate), and with the wind dead calm, it’ll be a nice, easy paddle for beginners. The afternoon gets messy with a cross-on breeze, so don’t bother with that.

Thursday, July 23rd, is a bit of a write-off. The morning has a small 2ft SW swell (103 energy), and while it’s glassy, it’s just too weak to get excited about. The afternoon gets a weird, long-period 26-second pulse that jumps the energy to 258, but the wind is on it, making it a mess.

Now, Friday, July 24th, is where it gets interesting. The morning is a true standout. We’ve got a 3ft SSW swell with a long 24-second period, and the energy is pumping at 1355 (strong). The wind is a light cross-offshore, keeping it clean. This is an excellent wave for experienced surfers. The long period means it’ll be better shaped, with more energy and longer waits between sets—perfect for a point break setup. The afternoon is a write-off with onshore wind and a risk of storms.

Saturday, July 25th, is another excellent morning. A 3ft SSW swell, 21-second period, and 1194 energy (strong) under cross-offshore winds. Clean and consistent. The afternoon gets a bit of a cross-on breeze, so you’ll want to be off the water by lunch.

Sunday, July 26th, starts with a glassy morning, 4ft SSW swell at 19 seconds, and 1044 energy (strong). This is great quality, but the swell is getting bigger. It’s still fine for intermediates, but we’re edging up. The afternoon gets a cross-on wind and a risk of storms, making it a no-go.

Monday, July 27th, the morning is glassy again with a 5ft SSW swell, 18-second period, and 1455 energy (very strong). This is getting into the size range where it’s more for the experienced crew. The waves will have plenty of punch. The afternoon is onshore and messy.

Tuesday, July 28th, is the other big standout. The morning is glassy, with a 6ft SSW swell, 18-second period, and a massive 1843 energy (very strong). This is the biggest, most powerful swell of the run. This is expert territory. The waves will be solid, and with the long period, they’ll be holding up well. The afternoon gets onshore wind again, so it’s a morning mission.

Wednesday, July 29th, is another glassy morning with a 6ft SSW swell, 16-second period, and 1385 energy (strong). Still big and powerful, still for the experts only. The afternoon gets a cross-on breeze that will chop it up.

From Thursday, July 30th, the swell starts to ease. The morning is clean with a light offshore breeze, 4ft SSW swell, 14-second period, and 709 energy (moderate). It’s still good, but the power is fading. The afternoon is messy again.

Friday, July 31st, and the weekend (August 1st & 2nd) are all about the mornings. The swell drops to 4ft, then 3ft, then 3ft, with periods settling around 13-12 seconds. The energy drops from 535 down to 230. It’s still surfable, and glassy mornings make for a fun, small wave session, but it’s nothing to write home about.

The following week (August 3rd to 6th) is pretty weak. The swell is consistently under 3ft, with periods dipping to 9-10 seconds. The energy is low, under 200. The mornings are glassy, but the waves are ordinary at best. Thursday, August 6th, has a little pulse of 2ft SW swell with a 14-second period and 231 energy, and it’s dead calm, so it’s a better chance for a small but clean wave to end the run.

For the whole period, the water temp is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

Bottom line: The absolute best bet is Friday morning, July 24th, for the clean, long-period groundswell. Tuesday, July 28th, is the biggest and most powerful, but only for the experts. Hit the mornings, and you’ll be fine.

Rusty.

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