Picao (Baia Formosa) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – the next couple of weeks at Picao (Baia Formosa) are looking pretty grim. We’re staring down a long stretch of poor to marginal conditions, with only a couple of brief windows where it might be worth getting wet.

The overall pattern is dominated by a persistent cross-offshore wind from the SSE and SE, which sounds good in theory, but the swell is mostly short-period, weak windswell from the east. The combined swell energy is generally low, sitting in the double-digit to low triple-digit range, so there’s not much punch. The water temperature is sitting at 81°F, which is about average for the time of year, so at least you won’t need a thick wetsuit.

The week starts rough. Friday the 3rd has a 6ft swell from the ESE, but with a risk of thunderstorms and 16 mph winds, it’s a write-off. Saturday the 4th morning sees a drop to 4ft, still cross-off, but the period is a weak 7 seconds – just a messy, marginal surf. The afternoon picks up a little to 5ft, but it’s still poor.

Sunday the 5th is probably the best on offer in this whole outlook. The morning shows a 7ft swell from the ESE with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 903 – that’s moderate surf. The cross-off wind from the SSE at 12 mph keeps the surface clean. It’s not firing, but it’s the most wave energy you’ll see. The afternoon holds at 6ft, though the risk of thunderstorms returns. This is borderline for beginners – at 7ft, things get a bit hefty.

After Sunday, it’s a steep decline. Monday the 6th through to the end of the outlook on Saturday the 18th is almost wall-to-wall poor surf. Swell sizes hover between 2ft and 5ft, periods stay short (6-8 seconds), and the winds remain cross or cross-off. The energy values rarely crack 200, and many days dip below 100. The best you can hope for is a brief moment on the morning of Friday the 10th, with a 3ft, 6-second swell and a “surfable but very ordinary” description – take that with a grain of salt.

The break itself is a consistent reef, which is a positive, but in these conditions, it’s just not going to offer much. The optimum swell direction is from the NE, and we’re getting mostly E and ESE, so the angle is off. Expect crowds on the rare days it looks okay, as it’s a popular spot.

Honestly, for the next 16 days, if you have to paddle, aim for the morning of Sunday the 5th. It’s the only standout, and even then, it’s not a classic. The rest is a long, flat, boring stretch. Don’t hold your breath.

Rusty.

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