Picao (Baia Formosa) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Right, I’ve had a look at the charts for Picao, up at Baia Formosa, and I’ll be honest with you, mate – it’s a pretty grim stretch ahead. The water’s sitting at a warm 81°, which is about average for this time of year, but that’s the only thing that’s feeling normal.

We’re looking at a solid 16-day run with nothing that’s really calling out for a paddle. The first decent sign of any surf comes on the morning of Sunday the 12th. We’ve got a 5ft swell rolling in from the ESE at a short, weak 6-second period. The combined energy is only 315 (moderate), and with a cross-off wind from the SE at 12 mph, the surface will be clean. But the wave comment says it’s marginal, and I’m with that – it’s just not going to have any shape or push.

From there, it’s a total desert. Monday the 13th through to Friday the 24th? Nothing but “poor surf conditions” every single session. The swell hangs around from the east, mostly between 3ft and 5ft, but the period is consistently short – 6 to 8 seconds – which means weak, crumbly waves. The energy often dips under 100 (weak) or sits in the low hundreds. The wind is usually cross-off or cross, so the water looks clean, but the waves just aren’t there. For a few days there, like the morning of the 15th, it’s clean with a 3ft swell, but honestly, that’s a skimboard session, not a surf.

The only real standout in the whole 16 days is the morning of Saturday the 25th of July. We see a bump in the combined energy to 302 (moderate) with a 4ft swell from the east, period at 8 seconds. The wind is clean cross-off from the SE at 16 mph. The wave comment still says “marginal,” but it’s the closest we get to anything rideable in the whole second week. It’s not a day to get excited about, but if you’re desperate, it’s the pick.

Because it’s a reef setup, that short period won’t do it any favours – it needs a longer period groundswell to really start working. As it stands, the whole forecast window is a washout. For a spot that’s usually consistent, this is a real downer. The swell direction is locked in from the east, and the optimum for Picao is from the NE, so it’s just not lining up at all.

Honestly, if you’ve got a kite, this might be more interesting than a surfboard for the next couple of weeks, because the clean cross-off winds are there, but the waves? Not for us.

Rusty.

Read more