Picao (Baia Formosa) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty.

Alright, let's be straight with you about Picao (Baia Formosa). For the next 16 days, it's a tough watch. We're looking at a long stretch of small, weak east swell coming in with a short period of around 7 seconds, which means waves are just going to be messy and lacking that push you want for a proper session. The water temp is sitting at a warm 81°, which is bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The outlook kicks off Monday, July 13th, with a tiny 3 ft to 4 ft swell from the east and a period of 7 seconds. The wind is a light cross to cross-onshore breeze, which is just enough to put a bit of chop on the surface. The combined energy is weak (139), and honestly, it's a write-off.

Tuesday, July 14th, is more of the same – small, weak, and messy. Wednesday, July 15th, is a bit of a tease. The wind swings to a cross-offshore breeze from the SE at 16 mph, which will clean the surface up, and the wave state is described as "clean." But the swell is still a weak 3 ft from the east with a period of 5 to 7 seconds. The energy is moderate (194) on the morning of the 15th, so you might get a few half-decent ones, but it's still a far cry from good.

From Thursday, July 16th, right through to Saturday, July 25th, we get a persistent, clean cross-offshore wind from the SE, which is a positive. The swell height slowly builds from 4 ft to 5 ft, and the period stretches to 8 seconds by the 19th. The combined energy jumps into the 200s (moderate) and even hits 244 on the 19th. But the problem is the swell direction is from the east, and Picao's optimum is from the NE. This east swell is just not lined up right, and the wave comment stays "poor surf conditions" or "marginal" at best. It's frustrating – clean conditions but the waves just aren't there.

The only real blip of interest is on Monday, July 20th, in the afternoon. The swell bumps up to 6 ft from the ESE with a period of 8 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to a strong 557. The wind is a clean cross-offshore. It's the biggest swell of the whole outlook, but it's still classed as "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions." The direction is a bit better (ESE), but the period is still short, so it'll be peaky and probably won't hold together well. Still, this is the best you'll get.

The final week from July 21st to July 28th is a real bummer. The swell drops back to 3 ft or 4 ft, the period goes back to 7-8 seconds, and the wind holds in a clean cross-offshore. The energy levels are moderate (128 to 221), but the wave state is consistently "poor surf conditions." There's a tiny spike on July 23rd morning with a 6 ft swell from the ESE and a strong energy of 653, but again, it's only "marginal." It's just not firing.

For a place like Picao, which is a consistent reef break, it's unusual to have such a blank run. The wind is mostly good, but the swell is just too small, too short-period, and from the wrong angle to do anything with. The one standout is the afternoon of July 20th, with the 6 ft ESE swell and clean conditions. If you're desperate, that's your window. Otherwise, it's a waiting game.

Rusty.

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