Picao (Baia Formosa) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a proper look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks.

Right off the bat, I gotta be honest with you: the first week is pretty grim. We’re looking at a long, flat spell with nothing worth paddling out for. From Saturday the 25th of July right through to Friday the 31st, it's all poor surf conditions – small, weak swell and cross-off winds that just won’t let up. The combined energy barely gets above 200 for most of that time, sitting around 86 to 213. The water temp is sitting at a warm 80.4°F, which is about average for this time of year, so at least you won’t be cold while you’re staring at a flat ocean.

Now, Friday the 31st of July, the morning session at Picao (Baia Formosa) finally shows a flicker of life. The swell picks up to 3.9 ft from the ESE with a period of 7 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 211 – moderate energy. The wind is still cross-off from the SE at 12 mph, but it’s a gentle breeze, so the surface will be clean. It’s described as surfable but very ordinary. Not a standout, but if you’re desperate, it’s the first real chance you’ll get.

Things get a little more interesting heading into the second week, but we’re still not talking about perfection. On Saturday the 1st of August, the morning shows 4.6 ft from the ESE, period 8 seconds, energy at 246 – but there’s a risk of thunderstorms, so keep an eye on the sky. The wind is a cross-off 12 mph, so it’ll be clean but bumpy if the storms hit.

The real standout window – and I mean the only one worth circling on the calendar – is the final few days. Starting around Monday the 3rd of August into the following weekend, the swell starts to build and the period stretches out. By Saturday the 8th of August, we’ve got 6.2 ft from the ESE with an 11-second period, combined energy of 851 – that’s strong wave energy. The following day, Sunday the 9th, pushes up to 7.5 ft from the ESE, period 10 seconds, and energy hits 1047 – very strong. This is the best on offer.

But here’s the caveat: Picao is a reef break, and with a long-period groundswell like that (11 seconds on the Saturday), it’ll be powerful and lined-up. It’s always a good thing at a reef, but the wind is still cross-off from the SE at 15-19 mph. It’s not offshore, so the waves will be clean but not glassy. That 7.5 ft on the Sunday is getting into expert-only territory – it’s too big for beginners, and even intermediates will need to be on their game. The crowd is listed as "sometimes," so you might get a few out, but it won’t be a zoo.

Honestly, the whole run is a bit of a grind. The cross-off wind is the main character here, and it never really swings offshore. For the first week, don’t bother. The second week has some size and energy, but it’s still not perfect. If you’re a strong surfer and can wait until that 8th and 9th of August, that’s your best bet. Otherwise, it’s a waiting game.

Stay patient, check the charts again soon. Forecasts can change.

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