Picao (Baia Formosa) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty grim for a proper paddle at Picao (Baia Formosa). I’ve scanned the whole 16-day window, and honestly, there isn’t a single day that gets me genuinely stoked. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing special on the cards.

The ocean is going to be there, but the quality just isn’t. The swell energy is mostly weak to moderate, with combined energy readings mostly in the double digits, like 87 and 68, and occasionally pushing into the low-to-mid hundreds, like 237 or 451. That 451 on Wednesday morning is the strongest burst, but it comes with a short 8-second period and cross-off winds, so it’s not going to translate into clean, rideable waves. Don’t get your hopes up.

The water temp is sitting at 81°, which is about average for this time of year, so you won’t need a thicker suit. The wind is the main problem. It’s mostly a cross or cross-off breeze out of the east and southeast, at 12-16 mph, which is constantly messing up any potential face. There’s a lot of “moderate cross-shore with a cross-chop” in the notes, which is a polite way of saying it’s going to be a bumpy, frustrating mess.

For the first week, from Tuesday the 4th right through to Monday the 10th, it’s all poor. The swell is small, under 4ft, and the wind is just onshore enough to ruin it. The only tiny glimmer is early Wednesday morning, the 5th, when the swell bumps up to 5ft and the energy jumps to 451, but the 8-second period and cross-off wind will make it soft and lumpy. Not worth the paddle out.

The second week doesn’t offer any relief. From the 11th to the 19th, it’s the same story. There are a few mornings, like the 12th and the 14th, where the notes say “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” which is a fancy way of saying it’s still not good. The swell stays weak, the period is short, and the wind remains a persistent issue. There’s a brief moment on the 15th afternoon where a long-period 14-second swell shows up, but the height is a pathetic 1ft, so it’s completely unrideable. Those long-period swells are better for points and reefs, but there’s just no size to work with.

All in all, this is a blank run. There are no standouts, no hidden gems. The break is consistent, but the conditions are consistently bad. It’s one of those times where the forecast is just a write-off. If you’ve got a kite, the onshore winds and some of that chop might be more interesting than trying to surf. But for a paddle surfer, you’re better off doing something else for the next two weeks. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a hard pass.

Rusty.

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