Picao (Baia Formosa) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, listen up. We’re looking at Picao (Baia Formosa) and it’s a pretty bleak 16 days ahead. The forecast data is all pointing to poor surf conditions, and there’s nothing on the horizon that’s going to get any of us psyched. It’s one of those stretches where you’ll be checking the cam, muttering to yourself, and then going back inside.

The water's running at 81°, which is about 1° warmer than the usual for this time of year. Not a big deal, just a touch warmer than average.

From Friday the 21st onward, we’ve got about 3ft of shifty, short-period windswell coming from the East with a period of only 6-7 seconds. It’s weak, it’s junky, and the SE cross-off wind isn't doing it any favors. The wave energy is low, sitting in the 90 to 120 range, which tells you how anemic it is.

Through the next few days, the swell pushes up slightly to the 4-5ft range, still from the ESE, but the period stays stuck at a short 7 seconds. The wind stays cross-off, but it's just not enough to clean up what will be a messy, weak ocean. Energy values are now in the low 200s, so moderate, but it’s all surface chop. The wind is also picking up at times, hitting 30 km/h.

As we roll through the 27th to the 31st, the swell hops around 4-5ft. The wind shifts to the east and becomes a cross-shore breeze, which is a downgrade because it’s going to add more chop. The short period remains, and the wave comments start mentioning cross-chop, so it’s going to be bumpy. The energy is solidly in the 200s, but again, that's just the overall movement, not quality surf.

Here’s the one time things look different: on the morning of Tuesday, September 1st, the swell jumps to 5ft, and the combined energy spikes to 549 – that’s a strong pulse of swell. But the period is only 8 seconds and the wind is cross-shore, so it’s going to be a walled-up, bumpy mess. Beginners should stay well clear of this one.

The following days, the 2nd and 3rd, settle back to 5ft, with the energy dropping back to the 230s. Still nothing special.

Then we get the biggest surf of the whole period on Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th of September. The swell climbs to 6ft, and the energy reads 300 and 344. But the period remains pathetically short at 7-8 seconds. This is going to be a big, unruly, wind-blown mess. For a reef break, this short-period swell and cross-shore winds will just make it a washing machine. Only the experts should even consider it.

The lack of any long-period groundswell is the whole story here. We’re getting none of that clean, pushing swell that would suit this reef. With the consistent cross-shore winds and the short-period swells, this honestly looks like a better bet for the kite surfers than for anyone with a paddle.

So, there it is. There is no standout session in this entire forecast. The only size we see is at the start of September, but the conditions are going to be terrible. It’s a tough stretch, but these flat spells don't usually last forever. Keep your board ready and hope the models change.

Rusty.

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