Picao (Baia Formosa) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here again. Gotta be straight with you – the outlook for Picao (Baia Formosa) over the next couple of weeks is a tough one. We're looking at a long stretch where the conditions just aren't cooperating for a decent paddle. The water temp is sitting at 81°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Right from the get-go, from Sunday the 6th, it's a write-off. We've got a small 4 ft swell from the ESE with a short period of 8 seconds, but the wind is a messy cross-shore at 12 mph. The wave energy is weak (266), and the report says "poor surf conditions" – that theme is going to stick around for a while. Monday and Tuesday are the same story: tiny waves, onshore or cross winds, and generally junk.

We finally see a bit of a pulse on Wednesday the 9th with a 5 ft swell and the combined energy jumping up to 424. But again, it's a cross-shore wind and the period is a short 7 seconds, so it's going to be chopped up and messy. That's about the biggest we'll see, but it's not the kind of size that cleans up. It's not huge, but the quality just isn't there. For a beginner, that 5 ft might be a bit much in poor conditions.

The pattern just keeps repeating. Most days show a cross or cross-offshore wind, but the swell direction is consistently from the east or east-southeast, and the period rarely gets above 8 seconds. This keeps the surf small and weak, with the combined energy mostly sitting under 300. The only real positive is that on several afternoons, like the 8th, 9th, 14th, and 15th, the wind shifts to a cross-offshore, cleaning things up a little, but the waves are still tiny at 3 ft to 4 ft.

Looking further out, the second week doesn't offer much hope. From the 15th through the 21st, we're stuck with similar conditions. There's a slight bump in energy on the 21st (Monday) with a 5 ft swell and energy of 322, but it's another cross-shore day. The 20th (Sunday) afternoon shows a 5 ft swell with a clean cross-offshore wind, which is probably the best we'll see, but it's still a far cry from good. There are no standouts here, folks. This reef break is fairly exposed, but it's just not getting the right combo of clean swell and good wind.

Honestly, with this persistent cross-shore wind and short-period, onshore swell, this stretch looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. We've got a long gap of over two weeks with no real recommendations. It's a blank run, and for this area, that's a common pattern when the wind and swell don't line up. Keep an eye on the charts, but for now, don't bother waxing up.

Rusty.

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