Picao (Baia Formosa) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s on offer at Picao.

Straight up, the outlook for the next 16 days is a bit of a grind. We’re looking at a long stretch of marginal conditions, with the best of it being more about "surfable but ordinary" rather than anything truly firing. The swell is almost exclusively from the east and east-southeast, with periods short – mostly 6 to 8 seconds – so it’s windswell, not groundswell. That means the waves will be a bit crumbly and lack the punch of a proper groundswell. The wind is a consistent cross-offshore from the southeast, which would normally be a plus, but the swell quality just isn't there to make it sing.

The first clear window for any kind of surf is from Wednesday, July 16, onward, but it’s a tough start. Thursday morning, July 17, sees a small 4ft easterly swell with a short 6-second period, and the water temp is a warm 81°, which is about average for the time of year. The combined energy readings are mostly in the low to mid hundreds (e.g., 114), which is moderate, but the wave comment says "poor surf conditions" each day. The wind is a consistent cross-offshore, so the surface is clean, but the waves are just too weak and short-period to get excited about.

There’s a slight uptick around Saturday, July 19, with the swell height hitting 5ft in the morning and the combined energy jumping to 511 – that’s a moderate to strong energy reading. The period is still only 7-8 seconds, so it’s a bit of a thumping windswell. The wind is still cross-offshore, but it’s a fresh breeze at 19 mph, which is a bit strong for clean surfing. The wave comment is "marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions," so it’s not a total write-off, but it’s not a standout either.

The only real standout, if you can call it that, comes on Saturday morning, July 26. The swell is 4ft from the east, period 7 seconds, and the combined energy is a moderate 141. The wind is a light breeze from the southeast at 6 mph, making for a clean, cross-offshore surface. The wave comment says "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions." For Picao, this is about as good as it gets in this window. But it’s still a small, short-period swell, so don’t expect any barrels. It’s a session for a longboard or a funboard, not your step-up.

The rest of the period is a long, flat run of poor surf conditions. From Sunday, July 27, right through to Thursday, July 30, it’s all "poor surf conditions" with small swell (3ft to 5ft) and short periods. The wind picks up again, with fresh breezes at 19 mph, making it less appealing. The combined energy drops back to the low 100s and even 90s, so weak wave energy.

Overall, there’s no true standout in this 16-day window. The best bet is Saturday morning, July 26, for a small, clean, but very ordinary wave. If you’re desperate, you can paddle out, but don’t expect much. The long gap of poor surf from the start through to the end means this is a period to watch the forecast and wait for a better run.

Rusty.

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