Surf Forecasts:
Picao (Baia Formosa) surf forecast from 18 Aug 2026:
- Most powerful swell: Thursday 20 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 8s period, SE swell with 445 kJ wave energy.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Picao (Baia Formosa) this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Picao (Baia Formosa) in the next 16 days are 1.9m 8s and forecast to arrive on Thursday (Aug 20) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 0.4m 8s period and expected on Sunday (Aug 23) at 12PM.
| Wave Type | Time (-03) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Thu 20th Aug) | 6ft (1.9m) 8s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Picao (Baia Formosa) over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s get real about the next couple of weeks. Honestly, it’s a bit of a flat, frustrating stretch on the cards for Picao (Baia Formosa). We’ve got a solid run of days with waves, but the quality is just not there.
The whole 16-day window is pretty much the same story: small, short-period windswell wrapping in from the east, with cross-offshore winds that keep things clean but don’t give us any real push. The swell energy is weak to moderate at best – you’re looking at readings mostly in the 150-220 range, which is just not enough to get this reef really firing. It's a lot of 4ft to 5ft of lumpy, short-interval stuff, around 6 to 7 seconds. That’s a far cry from the long-period groundswell this place needs. We need something with a bit more grunt.
Things start off on Tuesday morning, 18 August, with a 4ft easterly swell and a 6 second period. It’s clean with a moderate cross-off breeze, but that short period means it’s going to be sectiony and lacking any real power. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so nothing crazy there.
The rest of that first week just blends into a similar pattern. Wednesday and Thursday have a touch more size, up to 5ft, but the period is still only 7 seconds. The wind stays cross-offshore, mostly from the SE, with a fresh breeze kicking in on Thursday afternoon. The wave comment for every single session is "poor surf conditions," which tells you all you need to know. It’s clean, but there’s just no drive in it.
Then, on the weekend of the 22nd and 23rd, the wind swings more to the ESE and becomes more cross-shore. That’s when things get messier. You’ve got a cross-chop building, the swell drops a bit, and it’s just not inviting. The energy dips down to around 91-148 (weak) on Saturday, which is the low point of the whole window. It's going to be a bit of a struggle out there.
The following week, from the 24th through the 31st, we see a slight improvement in the wind, with more cross-off conditions returning, particularly in the afternoons. The swell hangs around that 4ft to 5ft mark, with the period staying stubbornly at 7 seconds. The energy picks up a little, getting into the mid-200s on the 26th and 31st, but it still feels small and unorganized. There’s no point singling out any of these days as a standout – they’re all offering a similar, clean but gutless wave.
And that brings us to September. The first two days of the month, Tuesday the 1st and Wednesday the 2nd, look like more of the same. Clean conditions with a cross-off breeze, but the swell is still small. It's 4ft on the Tuesday, dropping back to 4ft on Wednesday, with that same 7-second period.
The truth is, if you’re looking for a standout session in this entire run, you’re going to be waiting a long time. There isn’t one. The strongest energy days, like the 26th and 31st, are still only moderate and paired with waves that aren't worth writing home about. For a spot like Picao, which is a consistent reef, this is a period where you're better off doing something else. The consistency is there, but the quality is not. The forecast isn't terrible, just uninspiring. It'll be a good time to work on your pop-up in the whitewash, but honestly, I’d give it a miss until we see a proper groundswell on the charts.
Until next time.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 14mm), heaviest on Tue night. Warm (max 26°C on Tue morning, min 23°C on Tue night). Mainly fresh winds. | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Fri night. Warm (max 27°C on Sun morning, min 23°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 6 | E 6 | ESE 6 | ESE 6 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 6 | E 7 | E 7 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
127 | 123 | 147 | 119 | 139 | 173 | 188 | 181 | 193 | 198 | 191 | 181 | 147 | 116 | 72 | 76 | 143 | 157 | 173 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross |
High Tide | 7:36AM1.88m | 7:57PM1.80m | 8:23AM1.68m | 8:46PM1.65m | 9:26AM1.51m | 9:55PM1.54m | 10:55AM1.43m | 11:25PM1.53m | 12:28PM1.47m | 00:44AM1.61m | 1:29PM1.59m | 1:38AM1.75m | |||||||
Low Tide | 1:22AM0.45m | 1:43PM0.54m | 2:09AM0.60m | 2:30PM0.70m | 3:10AM0.72m | 3:35PM0.83m | 4:36AM0.78m | 5:06PM0.87m | 6:06AM0.74m | 6:29PM0.81m | 7:12AM0.64m | 7:26PM0.70m | |||||||
— | 5:26 | — | — | 5:26 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:20 | — | |
mm | — | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1 |
Temp °C | 25 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 24 | 26 | 26 | 24 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 27 | 26 | 26 |
Feels °C | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 26 | 25 | 24 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 28 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 11 | ESE 10 | NNE 11 | ESE 10 | NNE 10 | NNE 10 | NNE 10 | NNE 10 | NNE 9 | NNE 9 | NE 9 | NE 9 | NE 9 | NE 8 | E 7 | NE 8 | SE 9 | SE 8 | NE 8 |
38 | 21 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 72 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 3 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNE 8 | NNE 8 | NNE 8 | NNE 11 | S 12 | — | N 10 | N 10 | NNE 10 | N 9 | S 13 | S 13 | S 12 | N 9 | SE 8 | N 8 | — | NNE 8 | N 10 |
7 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 12 | — | 8 | 17 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 5 | — | 6 | 2 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NNE 12 | NNE 11 | N 11 | NE 8 | N 12 | — | — | N 11 | N 9 | S 14 | N 9 | N 9 | N 9 | S 12 | NE 8 | S 11 | N 11 | N 11 | — |
14 | 12 | 21 | 3 | 3 | — | — | 2 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | — | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 6 | E 6 | ESE 6 | ESE 6 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | ESE 7 | E 7 | E 7 | E 7 | — | E 7 | E 6 | E 7 | E 7 |
127 | 123 | 147 | 119 | 139 | 173 | 188 | 181 | 193 | 198 | 191 | 181 | 147 | 116 | — | 76 | 143 | 157 | 173 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 1564 | 1564 | 1564 | 979 | 979 | 1586 | 1002 | 988 | 1586 | 979 | 820 | 1971 | 1002 | 817 | 2683 | 1002 | 1653 | 1653 | 988 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Rio Grande Do Norte | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Brazil | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Picao (Baia Formosa) Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Picao (Baia Formosa) provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Picao (Baia Formosa) can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Picao (Baia Formosa) surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Picao (Baia Formosa)) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Picao (Baia Formosa) may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Picao is 12 km (7 miles) from Canguaretama. If you plan a holiday in Rio Grande Do Norte, look for hotels and other accommodation in Canguaretama. Canguaretama has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











