Picao (Baia Formosa) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – this 16-day stretch for Picao (Baia Formosa) is a tough one. We're looking at a real dry spell to kick things off. The first week and a half ain't offering much at all, with a lot of days where the surf just isn't worth paddling out for. The water temps are sitting around 80°F which is pretty much what you'd expect for this time of year, so you can't blame the conditions on a weird ocean.

The pattern starts out pretty grim. From Tuesday the 28th of July all the way through to the end of the first week, it's a parade of poor surf conditions. We're seeing a lot of cross-offshore winds that are a bit too strong, and the swell is a mix of weak, short-period junk. The combined energy is mostly in the double digits, often under 100, which is barely a ripple. Even when the swell height bumps up a touch, the period is short, around 6 to 7 seconds, so it's just mushy and weak.

There's a bit of a pulse showing up on the 1st of August, with swell heights around 6 ft, but the wind is still a messy cross-offshore at 19 mph, and the wave energy (333) is still only moderate. It's still being called "poor surf conditions." The same goes for the 2nd of August – the morning shows some marginal potential with a 5 ft swell and a bit more energy (399), but a cross-offshore breeze and a 7-second period means it's a gamble.

The 3rd and 4th of August are similar. We get a bit more size, up to 6 ft, with the period stretching to 8 seconds, and the energy climbing into the 300s, but the wind is still a problem. It's cross-off, and there's a risk of thunderstorms. The forecast calls it "marginal" at best, and honestly, with that wind, the surface is going to be chopped.

The real standout, if you can call it that, is possibly the morning of Sunday the 9th of August. That's when we see a spike in combined energy to 466, with a 5 ft swell from the ESE. It's still a short 8-second period, and the wind is cross-off, so it's not going to be perfect. But it's the most energy we've seen in the whole run. Still, the model is only giving it a "marginal" tag. The next Monday morning, the 10th of August, has a bigger 6 ft swell and even more energy (559), but the wind swings to a pure cross-shore and the forecast says "poor surf conditions."

So, what's the verdict? There's no real standout session here. The consistent cross-offshore wind and short-period swell are the main culprits. For the whole 16 days, I can't point to a true winner. The best bet, if you're desperate, would be the morning of the 9th of August for that bigger energy reading, but keep your expectations on the floor. It's a long wait for not much reward.

Rusty, signing off.

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