Picao (Baia Formosa) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I'm going to be straight with you – and I hate to say it, but this is a tough stretch for surf at Picao. The long-range picture isn't looking much better.

Right now, and for the next several days, things are pretty grim. Thursday the 16th and Friday the 17th are a write-off. We’ve got onshore and cross-off winds in that 15-19 mph range, churning up a lumpy 4ft to 5ft of short-period, 6-7 second wind swell from the ESE. That’s weak, jumbled energy (121 to 214 in the combined energy bracket). It’s poor, plain and simple.

We do see a little push over the weekend, Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th. The swell builds a bit, with heights getting up to around 5ft to 6ft, and the period slowly climbs to 8 seconds. But those winds... they're still hanging in from the SSE and SE at 15-19 mph. It's still cross-off, which isn't terrible direction-wise, but that wind strength is just going to mess up the surface. The water temp is sitting at a warm 81°F, which is about average for July here.

Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st are the only real standouts in this whole run, but even they come with caveats. Monday morning sees that SE wind drop slightly to 15 mph, with a 5ft swell from the ESE at 8 seconds (307 combined energy). Tuesday morning has the best numbers: a 7ft, 8-second swell from the ESE, pumping out a much stronger 845 units of energy. That's the biggest, most powerful wave of the forecast. The wind also eases to 12 mph from the SE. But here’s the thing – the overall forecast still calls it "marginal." Picao is a reef break, and with that swell direction being a bit off the optimum NE direction, it might not be lining up perfectly. If you're an intermediate, Tuesday morning is your best shot, but don't expect perfection.

After that, it’s a long, slow slide back into nothingness. From Wednesday the 22nd right through to Thursday the 31st, we’re looking at a solid eight-day gap with almost no recommendations. Swells drop below 3ft, periods go flat, and the energy just dies (dropping to as low as 46). Winds will occasionally be light, like on Friday the 24th morning or Saturday the 25th morning, giving you a clean 4ft wave. Those are "surfable but ordinary" days – a longboarder might get a few soft lines, but there's nothing to get excited about.

So, to wrap it up: this is a barren run for Picao. The only flicker of life is Tuesday morning the 21st, but even that’s a "maybe." Picao is consistent, so this is an unusual dead spell. Forecasts change, but right now, I’d be finding something else to do.

Rusty.

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