Picao (Baia Formosa) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Gotta give it to you straight: the next couple weeks on the coast are looking pretty flat and messy. We got waves on the table, but they're mostly small, weak, and lacking any real push. It's gonna be a grind for anyone looking for a decent session.

We're starting off Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th with some ankle-to-knee high slop, around 3 to 4 feet. The wind is coming from the southeast, blowing cross-off, so it keeps the surface from getting too chopped up, but it's not helping the waves any. The period is a pathetic 6 to 8 seconds, which means it's all just local wind swell, nothing with any power behind it. The energy is weak, down in the 118 to 148 range. You'll get out there and find mostly closeouts and no real shape.

From Wednesday the 9th through the weekend, we see a little more size, getting up to around 4 to 5 feet. The energy climbs a bit into a moderate range, peaking around 275, but the period stays short at 7 to 8 seconds. The wind starts to swing more cross, and we get a cross-chop building up. That's going to make things pretty rough and ragged. Throw in some rain showers, and it's not exactly a tropical paradise. The surf quality is just plain poor.

The second week stays pretty stagnant. We're looking at that same 3 to 4 foot range with the swell coming from the east. The energy stays moderate, mostly between 100 and 220, but that all-important period just won't stretch past 8 seconds. The wind will flip between cross and cross-off, so there might be a few cleaner windows, but the waves themselves are going to be soft, mushy, and just not fun. It's the kind of surf that makes you wonder why you bothered dragging your board down.

There's one weird little thing on Monday the 14th afternoon. The data shows a tiny 0.6-foot swell from the north-northeast with a longer 10-second period. But the energy is basically zero, just 12. That's not a wave, that's a ripple. Don't even think about it.

Now, the one glimmer of hope in this whole run is Tuesday the 22nd. The forecast shows the swell pushing up to 5 feet and the energy climbing into a strong zone at 216 and 252. That's the most size and power we'll see all fortnight. The catch? The period is still only 7 seconds. So while it won't be perfect, that Tuesday afternoon could offer up some punchy, fun-sized beach break waves if the wind gods cooperate. At 5 feet, it's still okay for most, not too big.

So, what's the call? For the next two weeks, Picao looks better for a float than a surf. The water temp is a warm 81°, which is pretty normal for this time of year. With the onshore wind patterns and the lack of any real groundswell, this might honestly be a better time to be a kite surfer than a surfer.

Keep your board in the car, but don't be in a hurry. That 22nd is the one to watch, but it's a ways out there, so don't go counting your waves before they break. Stay stoked.

Rusty.

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