Picao (Baia Formosa) Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for the next couple of weeks. Honestly, I’ve gotta level with you – this stretch is looking pretty tough. The whole 16-day window is a bit of a write-off for anything decent. We’ve got a consistent south-easterly tradewind pattern that just won’t let up, and the swell is mostly weak and short-period.

Right off the bat, from now until Thursday, the 12th of August, there’s nothing worth paddling out for. The only break on offer is Picao (Baia Formosa) , and it’s a consistent reef set-up. But the problem is the wind. It’s been a cross-offshore breeze from the SSE at 19 mph, which is not ideal, and the swell is a messy 4 ft from the ESE with a short period of 7 seconds. The combined wave energy is moderate (182). The water temp is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there. But honestly, with a score of zero, this is a flat-out poor surf situation.

Moving through Thursday the 13th and Friday the 14th, it’s more of the same. We see a slight bump in swell on Thursday morning, hitting 5 ft from the SE, period of 7 seconds, and energy climbing to 345 – still only moderate. But that cross-off wind, though slightly lighter at 12 mph, still has that lumpy cross-chop on it. The forecast is calling it "marginal surf" at best. Thursday afternoon and all of Friday see the swell drop back to 3 ft and the period shorten to 6-7 seconds, with energy falling well back into the weak range. It’s all poor conditions.

The weekend isn’t any kinder. Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th see a bit more size – up to 4 ft and 5 ft – but the period stays stubbornly short at 6 seconds. On Sunday, the wind picks back up to a fresh 19 mph cross-off. The energy is moderate (284 on Sunday morning), but the wave quality is still labelled as poor. You’ll be battling a bumpy, choppy surface.

As we head into the second week, Monday the 17th to Wednesday the 19th, things actually get a little worse for paddling. The swell holds around 3 ft to 5 ft from the east, period between 6 and 7 seconds. But the wind shifts to a pure cross-shore from the ESE at 12–19 mph. This creates a "moderate cross-shore with a cross-chop" – messy, lumpy, and not fun on a standard surfboard. With the wind state being cross-shore and the setup being a reef, this could actually be more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer.

From the 20th of August right through to the 27th, it’s a depressing pattern. Swell stays small, mostly between 3 ft and 5 ft, period rarely hitting 7 seconds, and wave energy dipping back into the weak to moderate range (as low as 64 on the 21st). The wind is a constant cross or cross-off, at moderate to fresh speeds. There is one standalone moment on Thursday the 20th afternoon with the swell at 4 ft and cleaner conditions for a second, but the period is still a weak 6 seconds and energy is only 140. It’s still poor surf.

For this region, a blank run like this is a bit more normal. The trade winds are just on top of us. Forecasts can always change, but for now, there is nothing here that even qualifies as a highlight. No standouts, no real options. Keep the board in the car for the long shots, but don't hold your breath.

Rusty.

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