Surf Forecasts:
Picao (Baia Formosa) surf forecast from 20 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Tuesday 21 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 9s period, ESE swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 21 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 9s period, ESE swell with 715 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Tuesday 21 Jul, 3AM (local time) - 7ft (2.1m), 9s period with ESE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Picao (Baia Formosa) this week:
The surf forecast for Picao (Baia Formosa) over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 3AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 2.1m and 9s period with a secondary swell of 1.5m and 8s. Another secondary swell of 0.1m and 10s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Picao (Baia Formosa) in the next 16 days are 2.2m 9s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Jul 21) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives.
| Wave Type | Time (-03) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 3AM (Tue 21st Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 9s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Tue 21st Jul) | 7ft (2.1m) 9s |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Tue 21st Jul) | 7ft (2.2m) 9s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Picao (Baia Formosa) over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks. Honestly, it’s a grim stretch ahead. We’re looking at a loooong run of poor surf conditions, with the first real flicker of life not showing up until way down the track. Hang tight.
First up, the main spot we’ve got to work with is Picao (Baia Formosa). Water temp is sitting at 81°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.
The pattern is clear: from now through the end of July, it’s a write-off. Monday the 20th kicks things off with a weak 5ft swell from the ESE, but a nasty cross-offshore wind from the SE at 16 mph and rain showers make it a total mess. The combined energy is weak (355), and the wave comment says it all – poor surf. That theme drags on day after day. Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday… all the same story: cross-off winds, short 8-second periods, and rain or storms. The swell hangs around 3ft to 6ft, but the quality is just not there. Even the “clear” days on Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th still have cross-off winds and short-period junk, with combined energy dropping as low as 125 (weak).
There’s a gap of about two weeks with absolutely nothing worth paddling out for. The one standout – and I use that word loosely – comes on Saturday the 2nd of August. The morning shows a 5ft swell from the ESE, period stretching to 8 seconds, and the wind is a cross-off from the SSE at 16 mph. The combined energy jumps to 441 (moderate), and the wave comment is “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” It’s not great, but it’s the best of a bad bunch. The swell direction (ESE) is a bit off from the optimum NE for this reef, so it won’t be firing perfectly, but it’s got more push than anything else in the window.
The morning of Tuesday the 4th of August also has a pulse: 6ft from the ESE at 8 seconds, with combined energy hitting 646. But again, it’s cross-off wind at 16 mph, and the comment remains “marginal.” That’s getting solid in size – over 5ft, so it’s not for beginners – but the wind and short period will keep it chopped.
If you’re desperate, the Saturday the 2nd morning is your best bet. Otherwise, it’s a long, flat, windy wait.
Rusty, signing off.
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 47mm), heaviest during Mon night. Warm (max 26°C on Mon morning, min 23°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryHeavy rain (total 20mm), heaviest during Thu morning. Warm (max 26°C on Thu morning, min 23°C on Fri night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | Thursday 23 | Friday 24 | Saturday 25 | Sunday 26 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 8 | E 8 | ESE 8 | E 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | E 8 | E 9 | E 8 | E 8 | E 7 | E 7 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | SE 8 | ESE 7 | E 7 | ESE 7 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 350 | 341 | 616 | 375 | 422 | 551 | 101 | 113 | 153 | 148 | 205 | 82 | 76 | 152 | 141 | 113 | 114 | 229 | 242 | 117 | 167 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | off | cross | cross | cross-off |
High Tide | 8:53PM1.80m | 9:16AM1.76m | 9:48PM1.70m | 10:20AM1.62m | 10:53PM1.63m | 11:35AM1.55m | 00:03AM1.63m | 12:48PM1.56m | 1:06AM1.68m | 1:46PM1.63m | 1:58AM1.78m | 2:32PM1.73m | 2:41AM1.89m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:39PM0.52m | 3:03AM0.63m | 3:33PM0.65m | 4:08AM0.70m | 4:36PM0.74m | 5:21AM0.72m | 5:46PM0.77m | 6:32AM0.68m | 6:51PM0.73m | 7:30AM0.59m | 7:44PM0.65m | 8:18AM0.48m | 8:28PM0.56m | ||||||||
 |  |  | | | | | | | | | |  | | | | | | | |  | |
 | 5:31 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — | 5:31 | — | — |
 | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:20 | — | — | 5:21 | — | — | 5:21 | — |
mm | 4 | 5 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 6 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
Temp °C | 26 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 24 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 24 | 26 | 26 | 25 |
Feels °C | 25 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 26 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NE 8 | N 8 | E 8 | NE 9 | NNE 9 | E 8 | E 6 | E 8 | E 9 | E 8 | E 8 | E 7 | E 7 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 8 | E 7 | E 7 | NNE 9 | E 7 |
| kJ | 3 | 1 | 301 | 3 | 8 | 270 | 61 | 113 | 153 | 148 | 205 | 82 | 76 | 152 | 141 | 113 | 114 | 131 | 147 | 7 | 94 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 10 | N 10 | NE 10 | N 10 | N 10 | NNE 9 | ESE 8 | NNE 8 | ESE 9 | ESE 9 | NNE 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | NE 6 | NE 8 | NNE 8 | NNE 8 | NNE 9 | NNE 9 | E 15 | NNE 8 |
| kJ | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 101 | 7 | 65 | 67 | 6 | 62 | 55 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNE 8 | N 9 | NNE 8 | NNE 8 | N 9 | NNE 8 | NNE 8 | ENE 6 | E 7 | NNE 8 | SE 8 | S 11 | SE 16 | SE 15 | E 14 |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 8 | E 8 | ESE 8 | E 8 | ESE 8 | ESE 8 | — | SE 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SE 8 | ESE 7 | E 7 | ESE 7 |
| kJ | 350 | 341 | 616 | 375 | 422 | 551 | — | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 229 | 242 | 117 | 167 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 1002 | 1564 | 139 | 1479 | 1564 | 1564 | 1479 | 1564 | 0 | 979 | 2683 | 0 | 1479 | 1564 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 787 | 1586 | 0 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Rio Grande Do Norte | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in Brazil | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Picao (Baia Formosa) Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Picao (Baia Formosa) provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Picao (Baia Formosa) can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Picao (Baia Formosa) surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Picao (Baia Formosa)) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Picao (Baia Formosa) may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Picao is 12 km (7 miles) from Canguaretama. If you plan a holiday in Rio Grande Do Norte, look for hotels and other accommodation in Canguaretama. Canguaretama has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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