Pennington Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, we’ve only got one spot on the radar for the next couple of weeks: Pennington Bay. And to be honest, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. The forecast is full of marginal conditions and plenty of “maybe” days, but there are a couple of windows where it could actually get pretty decent.

We’ve got a solid run of south swell energy hanging around. The combined energy readings are often in the strong to very strong range (1116 to 2233), which tells you there’s plenty of power in the water, but the wind and tide aren’t always playing ball. The water temp is sitting at 58.5°F, about 0.5°F warmer than average, so nothing unusual there—just your standard winter chill.

First up, Monday morning (August 17) the swell is 4.6ft from the south at a long 16 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, but the wind is a cross-off from the ENE at 12 mph, keeping it clean enough. The score is low though—the report calls it marginal. Still, it’s surfable for a keen intermediate. By Tuesday (August 18), we get offshore winds from the NNE, blowing 19 mph in the morning, easing to 12 mph in the arvo. The swell drops a touch to 3.9ft from the south, period still 16-17 seconds. The comment says “fresh offshore and clean” for the morning. That’s a decent window for a mid-length session, but the crowd factor is “often,” so don’t expect to have it to yourself.

Wednesday (August 19) is a write-off—strong cross-shore winds of 19 mph and the swell drops to 2.6ft. Poor conditions, score zero. We get a bit of a kick again Thursday morning (August 20) with 4.6ft south swell, 16 seconds, and light cross-off winds. Clean, but still only a marginal call. The afternoon brings rain and cross-onshore wind, so that’s a hard pass.

Now, the first real standout is Saturday morning (August 22). The swell is 5.6ft from the SSW at 15 seconds, combined energy at 1375. The wind is a light cross-off from the NW at only 6 mph. The report calls it “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers,” and I’d agree. That’s a solid, clean groundswell with enough size to make the sandbars work. At 5.6ft, it’s in the “experienced” zone—this isn’t a beginner’s wave. If you’ve got the skills, get in early.

Sunday (August 23) keeps the momentum with 4.9ft to 5.6ft south swell, period 14-16 seconds, and clean cross-off winds. Scores are marginal on the board, but the energy is there. It’ll be a fun, consistent day for anyone comfortable in that size.

We then hit a bit of a lull midweek. Monday (August 24) afternoon sees a shift to onshore winds and the surf gets messy. From Tuesday (August 25) through Wednesday (August 26), the swell drops below 3.3ft and the wind stays cross or cross-off. Not worth paddling out.

Then we get a promising late-week push. Thursday (August 27) brings back 4.6ft to 4.9ft south swell, 16-17 seconds, with clean cross-off winds from the east. The combined energy is back up in the strong range (1153-1181). The score is still marginal, but this is a much better-looking setup. Friday (August 28) morning is a bit smaller at 3ft but with a very long 19-second period—that’s proper groundswell energy, and with light cross-off wind, it could be glassy and lined up. The arvo picks up to 4.9ft from the south, 17 seconds, but the wind goes cross-shore, so expect a bit of chop.

Now, here’s the second standout: Sunday afternoon (August 30). The swell is 3.9ft from the SSW at 16 seconds, clean cross-off wind from the ENE at 9 mph. Combined energy is 1356, and the report says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” The wind is gentle, the period is long, and the direction is right in the sweet spot. This is the pick of the second week. The morning of that same day is also marginal but still clean at 3.6ft from the south.

Monday (August 31) has offshore winds from the NNE, 16 mph in the morning, easing to 12 mph. The swell is 5.6ft from the SSW, 13 seconds—solid size and clean with offshore wind. The report says “very good surf conditions.” Crowds are “often” at Pennington Bay, so expect company. At 5.6ft, it’s still in the experienced range.

Into September, Tuesday morning (September 1) has strong 22 mph cross-off winds, which will make it tricky despite the 4.3ft south swell. The afternoon turns to moderate rain and cross-shore wind, dropping the quality. After that, the run looks like it peters out.

Overall

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