Pennington Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mates, Rusty here. Let’s cut through the noise and get to what matters for Pennington Bay over the next couple of weeks.

The long and short of it is this: we’ve got a slow, messy start, then a big, powerful pulse that’s going to be too much for most of us, and then a couple of proper gems hidden in the second week. Don’t get too excited about the first few days, but do keep your eyes peeled for the middle of next week.

The water temp is sitting at 59°F, which is about normal for this time of year, so no need to dig out the thickest suit yet.

We kick things off on Wednesday the 5th with small, weak surf. The swell is from the south, but it’s only pushing 0.8m in the morning, maybe 1.0m by the afternoon. Wind is cross-off, which keeps it tidy, but the energy is just not there. It’s a grovel, not a glory day.

Thursday the 6th is a tale of two halves. The morning is poor – cross-on wind, choppy, not worth the paddle. But the afternoon is a different story. The wind dies to glass, and the swell bumps up to 1.2m from the SSW. It’s clean, it’s fun, and it’s your first proper chance to get a wave without a fight.

Friday the 7th is where it starts to get real. The swell pushes up to 2-1.8m from the SSW, and we’ve got a solid offshore breeze from the NNE. The energy is building big time – 1723 in the morning, 2567 in the afternoon. This is powerful, clean surf for the experienced crew. The period is long, around 15-17 seconds, so there’s plenty of push. This is one of the best windows we’ll see.

Saturday the 8th is a frustrating one. Swell is still solid at 1.5m, but the wind is screaming from the north at 35-40 km/h. It’s offshore, so it’s clean, but it’s so strong you’ll be fighting just to get out the back. Not a fun day.

Sunday the 9th is a straight-up write-off. Rain, lumpy cross-onshore wind, and a messy surf. Don’t bother.

Monday the 10th is big, but ugly. Swell hits 3.0m, and the energy is huge at 4654. But the wind is cross-shore and making it a chop-fest. It’s a lot of power with nowhere to go. Not for the faint of heart.

Tuesday the 11th and Wednesday the 12th are just poor. Strong west winds, lumpy conditions, and big, messy swell. The energy readings are enormous, but it’s all for nothing. This is more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-surfing one.

From Thursday the 13th through Saturday the 15th, the swell is just too big for this spot. We’re looking at 3.0m to 4.5m of south swell. The wind might be okay at times, but the waves will be a washing machine. It’s a pass.

Sunday the 16th is a bit of a reprieve. The swell drops to a more manageable 2-1.7m, and we get a glassy afternoon. It’s clean and there’s energy in the water. A good chance to get back into it.

Then we get to the real highlights. Monday the 17th is looking fantastic. Clean 1.3m of SSW swell with a nice offshore breeze from the north. It’s clean, consistent, and the energy is around 905-939. It’s not huge, but it’s perfect for a fun session.

But the crown jewel is Wednesday the 19th. The wind is forecast to be completely calm in the morning, leaving it dead glassy. The swell is a solid 2.3m from the south with a long 17-second period, and the energy is strong at 3052. This is as good as it gets. The afternoon is also looking prime, with a light cross-off breeze and clean 2.1m waves. This is the one to save your energy for. It’s a long-range call, so it’s promising but not set in stone, but if it comes together, it’ll be a day to remember.

After that, the 20th looks smaller and cleaner, but nothing that will stand out.

So, the plan is simple: skip the messy stuff this weekend, get a few fun ones on Thursday and Friday, but put all your eggs in the basket for Monday the 17th and especially Wednesday the 19th. That’s where the magic is.

Rusty out.

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