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Surf Forecasts:
Patons Rock surfForecast / Nelson – Tasman Bay / New Zealand
16 Day Weather and Surf, issued 11 pm Thursday 07 May 2026 NZSTForecast update in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Patons Rock surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.
Today's Patons Rock sea temperature is
16.1° C
(Which is normal for this time of year)Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Patons Rock this week:
The most powerful waves expected at Patons Rock in the next 16 days are 0.7m 5s and forecast to arrive on Monday (May 11) at 6AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 3.0m 9s period and expected on Friday (May 08) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | - | - |
| Best Surf | - | - |
| Most Powerful | 6AM (Mon 11th May) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 5s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Patons Rock over the next 16 days.
Updates in hr min s Forecast update imminent
Short Range ForecastHeavy rain (total 116mm), heaviest during Fri afternoon. Very mild (max 17°C on Thu night, min 12°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the N on Fri afternoon, light winds from the W by Sun afternoon). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 3mm), mostly falling on Sun night. Very mild (max 13°C on Wed morning, min 6°C on Mon night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Friday 8 | Saturday 9 | Sunday 10 | Monday 11 | Tuesday 12 | Wednesday 13 | Thu 14 | |||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
N 8 | N 8 | N 8 | N 10 | NNW 10 | NNW 11 | W 3 | NW 10 | NW 10 | NW 12 | E 5 | NE 5 | NE 4 | NW 14 | NW 14 | E 3 | W 24 | W 21 | NW 19 | NW 18 | NW 16 | |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
on | on | on | cross-on | cross-on | cross | cross | cross | cross | cross-off | on | glassy | cross-off | glassy | cross | cross-off | glassy | glassy | off | glassy | cross-on | |
High Tide | 00:45AM4.29m | 1:25PM3.99m | 1:32AM4.03m | 2:23PM3.85m | 2:36AM3.85m | 3:31PM3.79m | 3:53AM3.85m | 4:39PM3.83m | 5:06AM4.03m | 5:44PM4.00m | 6:05AM4.31m | 6:43PM4.28m | 6:55AM4.61m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 6:43AM1.52m | 7:30PM1.56m | 7:39AM1.72m | 8:24PM1.66m | 8:50AM1.84m | 9:28PM1.71m | 10:11AM1.79m | 10:42PM1.65m | 11:23AM1.57m | 11:51PM1.46m | 12:18PM1.26m | 00:47AM1.17m | 1:05PM0.95m | ||||||||
 |  | |  |  | |  |  |  | |  | |  | | | | | | | | | |
 | — | 7:20 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:22 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:24 | — | — | 7:26 | — | — | 7:26 | — |
 | — | — | 5:28 | — | — | 5:27 | — | — | 5:25 | — | — | 5:24 | — | — | 5:23 | — | — | 5:22 | — | — | 5:22 |
50 | 12 | 40 | 11 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
Temp °C | 17 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 13 |
15 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 12 | |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | NW 18 | — | — | N 11 | NNW 12 | WNW 15 | NW 14 | NW 12 | E 5 | NE 5 | NW 8 | NW 7 | NW 7 | W 14 | — | W 21 | NW 19 | NW 18 | NW 16 |
 kJ | — | — | 13 | — | — | 505 | 299 | 23 | 99 | 116 | 18 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4 | — | 9 | 15 | 12 | 10 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | W 14 | — | — | — | NNW 12 | N 8 | NNW 7 | NNW 7 | NW 14 | WNW 14 | NE 4 | NW 14 | NW 14 | NW 7 | W 14 | — | W 14 | — | — |
| kJ | — | — | 4 | — | — | — | 86 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 96 | 37 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 4 | — | 4 | — | — |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NW 16 | NNW 10 | — | — | NW 8 | WNW 14 | N 12 | N 12 | N 11 | W 24 | W 14 | — | N 10 | — |
| kJ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10 | 9 | — | — | 10 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 4 | — | 2 | — |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | N 8 | N 8 | N 8 | N 10 | NNW 10 | NNW 11 | W 3 | NW 10 | NW 10 | — | E 5 | — | — | — | — | E 3 | — | — | — | — | — |
| kJ | 501 | 454 | 866 | 1275 | 1156 | 759 | 5 | 144 | 115 | — | 17 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 199 | 196 | 195 | 189 | 184 | 66 | 184 | 167 | 180 | 225 | 90 | 30 | 90 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
Best forecast wave conditions in Nelson - Tasman Bay | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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FREE! Surf-Forecast.com widget for your website
The surf report / weather widget below is available to embed on third party websites free of charge and provides a summary of our Patons Rock surf forecast. Simply grab the html code snippet that we provide and paste it into your own site. You can choose your preferred language and metric/imperial units for the surf forecast feed to suit users of your site. Click here to get the code.
Information about the Patons Rock Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Patons Rock provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Patons Rock can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Patons Rock surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Patons Rock) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Patons Rock may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Are you planning a holiday in Nelson - Tasman Bay? If you are looking for accommodation near Patons Rock, camping, hotels and holiday cottages in Nelson - Tasman Bay, consider staying in Nelson which is 70 km (43 miles) away.
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