Cobden Breakwater Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here.

Alright, let’s be straight with you. The next few days are pretty much a write-off for a proper paddle at Cobden Breakwater. We’ve got a big pulse of west swell pushing through, with the energy readings right up there – strong to very strong stuff (5995 to 6395 in the combined energy department). Saturday morning shows a solid 13ft of west swell with a 14-second period, but that’s just too much muscle for this spot. The wind’s coming out of the WNW at 6 mph, cross-onshore, and it’s already messy. And it gets worse by the afternoon with the breeze jumping to 19 mph and the swell holding at 13ft. This is not a day for a surfboard; you’d be looking at a kite if anything.

The energy drops a touch for Sunday but it’s still well overhead at 10ft, and the wind swings around to the NNW, putting a bad cross-chop on it. The period’s a long 16 seconds, which at a breakwater setup can sometimes line up, but with that wind, it’s just going to be lumpy. An 8ft swell in the afternoon brings the period down to 16 seconds, but it’s still not clean. Monday eases off – 5ft in the morning with a cross-off ESE breeze and clean conditions, and the wave comment says it’s marginal. The combined energy drops to 1262, so it’s moderate at best, but honestly, it’s not going to have any push to it. The period is a touch shorter at 14 seconds.

Things get interesting, though, as we move into the middle of next week. There’s a window on Tuesday the 8th and Wednesday the 9th where we get some smaller, cleaner surf. Tuesday morning’s a paddly 4ft from the NNW with a short 8-second period, and a light ESE breeze. The afternoon is better – glassy conditions with the wind dropping to nothing (3 mph) and a 4ft west swell. But the energy is weak (421), so it’s not going to be epic. Wednesday morning is similar, glassy with a 4ft WSW swell, but again, the period is a short 8 seconds and the energy is weak (412).

From Thursday the 10th, the swell starts to build again fast. 10ft in the morning, and then by Friday the 11th we’re looking at a monster 15ft to 16ft of west swell with energy readings exploding to over 12000. The period is a very long 18 seconds. That’s a powerful groundswell, but it’s far too big for this place. The wind is howling onshore by the afternoon and it’s just a washing machine. That whole weekend and into Monday the 14th, it’s big, raw, and unsurfable here.

Now, here’s the light at the end of the tunnel. Monday the 14th brings a drop to 8ft with a clean cross-off ESE wind and clear skies. The comment says “excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers.” That’s the first real standout. The energy is still moderate (2655), but the wind is right and the swell is west. For the more experienced crew, that morning is the pick of the first week.

Tuesday the 15th is similar – 8ft, glassy, clean, and another good option for the advanced surfers, though the energy is a bit lower (2380). But then it gets blown out again mid-week.

The real highlight, the one to circle on the calendar, is Saturday the 19th. There’s a massive 16ft west swell with a 16-second period – energy readings are off the charts at 12776. It’s huge, but the early morning has light ESE winds and clean conditions. The forecast comment says the wind and tide are favorable, but that it’s too big for this break. This is only for the absolute experts, and even then, you’d need to know the place well. The swell direction is true west, which is the optimum for this spot, but 16ft is a different beast. The Sunday the 20th morning looks like the better, more manageable standout – 10ft of west swell, a 14-second period, light easterly cross-off wind, and clean. Energy’s at 3376, which is solid, and it’s a much more reasonable size for a good session.

Water temp is sitting at 55°, which is about average for this time of year, so a decent steamer is a must.

So, keep the hopes up for Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th if you're a charger, and definitely set the alarm for Sunday the 20th. That’s the one that has the most going for it.

Rusty.

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