Cobden Breakwater Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, mate, let’s break this down. Cobden Breakwater is a bit of a tricky one this week. It’s not going to be a classic run, but there are a couple of windows worth keeping an eye on.

The early part of the week is pretty average. Monday the 14th is cloudy with a light southwest breeze, giving you cross-onshore slop at around 5 feet. The water temp is about 54°, pretty much normal for this time of year. The swell energy is moderate (1203), but it’s not doing much for the break.

Tuesday the 15th cleans up a bit. The morning is glassy with a slight east-southeast air, and the swell drops to about 4 feet. It’s small but clean. The afternoon goes even smaller at around 2 feet and still glassy. Not much power, but if you just want some clean little waves, this is your chance.

Wednesday the 16th gets a bit more size—up to about 5 feet in the morning with a cross-offshore breeze from the north-northeast. It’s clean enough. The afternoon bumps up to around 6 feet with a bit more wind, but still cross-off. More options, but still not amazing.

Then it starts to get messy. Thursday the 17th brings onshore winds and rising swell, hitting about 8 feet in the afternoon with rain. It’s lumpy and poor quality. Friday the 18th has a jump in energy (2295) with 5 feet, but the wind is cross-shore. The afternoon hits 8 feet but the onshore breeze is back. This is where it starts to feel heavy and not great.

Saturday the 19th stays around 8 to 8 feet, but with light cross-onshore winds and rain. It’s not clean, and the energy is strong (2708). Sunday the 20th is a full-on washout—strong onshore winds at 40-45 km/h and 12 to 13 feet of raw, unruly swell (5633 energy). That’s not surfable; that’s just a mess. The breakwater will be a washing machine.

Monday the 21st settles a bit, back to 8 feet with a cross-shore wind. The energy is still strong (3329), but it’s cross-chop. Not good.

Tuesday the 22nd is another no-go—12 feet plus fresh onshore winds (35 km/h) means it’s big and blown out (4859 energy). Experts only, and even then, it’s too much.

But here’s the thing—Wednesday the 23rd might be the standout if you’re experienced. The morning shows an 12-foot west-southwest swell with an offshore east breeze and clean faces. The energy is pumping at 4716, and the wind and tide are favourable. The only catch is it’s predicted to be too big for the spot, so you’re looking at serious skills. The afternoon drops to around 10 feet but the wind goes cross-shore, so the morning is the pick.

Thursday the 24th is another for the experienced crew. The morning has around 6 feet from the west-southwest with a light offshore east-northeast breeze—clean and glassy, with energy at 1307. The afternoon keeps it solid at about 6 feet with a gentle offshore and clean faces. This is the most promising stretch for a proper surf, with good conditions and excellent shape for those who know what they’re doing.

After that, it just fizzles. Friday the 25th has 8 to 8 feet but with cross-onshore winds and chop. Saturday the 26th drops to around 5 and 4 feet with more cross-shore winds. Sunday the 27th has some size but the wind is up to 30 km/h, so it’s messy with rain. And Monday the 28th and Tuesday the 29th are poor—onshore winds, rain, and dropping swell. Not worth the drive.

So, to sum it up: the best bets are Wednesday the 23rd for the big, clean offshore morning if you’re confident in serious size, and Thursday the 24th for a more manageable and clean day. Everything else is either too small, too messy, or too blown out. The water temp is normal, so just lay low and pick your moment.

Rusty out.

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