Cobden Breakwater Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s coming down the line for Cobden Breakwater.

We’ve got a pretty wild 16-day run ahead. The first few days are a write-off, but there’s a real standout session on the horizon if you’re patient. The water temp is sitting at 55° which is about average for this time of year, so nothing unusual there.

The opening act, starting Wednesday the 26th, is a no-go. We’ve got a 7ft swell from the WNW, but it’s paired with a nasty 30 km/h cross-on wind from the NW. The combined energy is moderate (1080), but the conditions are just lumpy and poor. Don’t bother.

Thursday the 27th morning brings a glimmer of hope. The swell drops to 6ft from the WNW, with a moderate offshore breeze from the E at 20 km/h. It’ll be clean, and the combined energy is a moderate 849. This is the first real look of the window. Expect “very good surf conditions.”

Thursday afternoon gets messy again. Swell jumps to 8ft from the NW, wind swings cross-off from the NNE at 30 km/h – the size might be a bit much for a clean session and it’s marginal.

Friday the 28th is out of control. Morning swell is 12ft from the NNW with a cross-shore wind at 35 km/h. The combined energy is a strong 2566. That’s too big and too messy for paddle surfing; honestly, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing. Afternoon stays big at 10ft but onshore winds ruin it.

Saturday the 29th morning is the real standout. We get a 6ft swell from the W, and the wind goes glassy at just 5 km/h from the WNW. Combined energy is a moderate 873. This is the best bet of the early window. It will be clean, glassy, and perfect for intermediates. A real treat.

After that, the swell goes rogue. Sunday the 30th brings a huge 10ft to 16ft swell with strong cross-onshore winds. The combined energy on Sunday afternoon hits a very strong 5231. It’s a mess and too big for this break.

Monday the 31st through Tuesday the 1st of September is all heavy, onshore swell. Swells over 12ft with long periods, but the wind is either on or cross-on. Marginal at best. The combined energy stays strong (over 1992). It’s just not worth it.

Tuesday the 2nd of September is a write-off with near-gale force winds. Wednesday the 3rd of September morning is for the brave: a 10ft swell from the W, with a 16-second period and glassy, calm conditions (0 km/h wind). The combined energy is a very strong 4333. This is an expert-only session – that period is very long and it’ll be powerful, but if you have the skills and the right break (it’s a breakwater), it could be an incredible, clean wave. This is the second standout, but only for the experienced.

The rest of the second week (4th to 10th of September) is dominated by huge, dangerous swell. Expect 12ft to 20ft waves, often with cross-onshore winds and very strong to very strong combined energy (over 5000). On the 8th, the swell hits 20ft (with energy of 19278), glassy, but it’s way too big for this spot. All of these are expert-only or straight out dangerous. The 10th of September offers a 12ft swell with a cross-offshore breeze from the N at 15 km/h, but the size is still extreme for this break.

The Bottom Line: If you’re an intermediate, your window is Thursday morning the 27th and Saturday morning the 29th of August. The 29th is the cleanest, glassiest option. For experts only, Wednesday morning the 3rd of September is a very special, powerful, glassy session. Everything else is too big, too windy, or both. This break will be a tangled mess for most of the run.

Rusty.

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