Cobden Breakwater Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, I'm Rusty, and here's the story for the next couple of weeks. We've got one break to focus on, Cobden Breakwater, and it's a mixed bag of a forecast. The water temperature is sitting at 54°F right now, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no big surprises there.

It kicks off a bit slow. Saturday the 15th has some swell, but the conditions are marginal. The wind is a light cross-on from the south-west, with a solid 8ft swell rolling in from the west at a very long 16 seconds. That's a big energy reading at 2601, but the cross-on wind and questionable tide make it a tough one to call. Sunday morning the 16th looks a bit better with a clean cross-off wind from the east-southeast, and a 8ft west-southwest swell (period 15 seconds), but it's still a marginal call.

The real highlight of the first week is Monday morning the 17th. The sky is clear, the wind is a light cross-off from the east-southeast, and the swell is a clean 5ft from the west, with a 14-second period. The wave energy is moderate (965), and the conditions are expected to be very good. This is the standout for me. It's a great size for a confident intermediate, and that long-period groundswell will have some punch. It's a breakwater, so the long period should wrap in nicely.

Tuesday the 18th and Wednesday the 19th continue with good, clean mornings, but the swell drops a bit. Thursday the 20th and Friday the 21st see the swell dip below 3ft, with the odd glassy or offshore morning, but the energy is weak. Then we have a bit of a lull through the weekend, with the swell picking up again on Sunday the 23rd. That's a big jump – 10ft on Sunday morning, and 12ft on Sunday afternoon from the west-northwest (period 10-11 seconds). The energy is very strong (2989 on Sunday arvo), and the wind is clean cross-off, but this is getting into expert-only territory. It's a big, short-period swell that will be a handful.

Looking further ahead, Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th are the next big standouts. Monday morning has a 4ft swell from the west with a very long 19-second period, and offshore wind from the east-northeast. The energy is strong (2047), and the conditions are rated excellent for experienced surfers. Monday afternoon gets even better with a 6ft west swell (17 seconds) and a light cross-off, with energy at 3894. Tuesday morning the 25th is clean and offshore with a 10ft west swell (14 seconds), and Tuesday arvo hits 12ft from the west (14 seconds) – that's a massive 4555 energy reading, but again, it's for experts only. After that, the swell drops off quickly through the end of the month, with smaller, cleaner days on the 27th, 29th, and 30th.

So, the pick of the whole period is Monday morning the 17th for a clean, fun-sized wave, and then the Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th for the big, powerful groundswell if you've got the skills. The long-range stuff is promising but just a heads-up, it's a long way out.

Rusty.

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