Cobden Breakwater Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s coming up at Cobden Breakwater.

We’re looking at a mixed bag over the next 16 days. The standout windows are all about timing – finding those brief moments when the wind drops and the swell lines up, because for much of this run the wind is going to be a challenge. The surf itself will be solid to big at times, but it’s only for experienced surfers when it gets over 8 ft.

Let’s start from the beginning. Wednesday the 26th is a write-off – lumpy cross-shore wind and poor conditions, so don’t bother paddling out.

Thursday morning the 27th is the first real chance. The swell drops to 6 ft from the WNW with a moderate offshore breeze from the east. It’s clean, but the energy is moderate (766) and it’s only got a score that suggests borderline conditions. Not a standout, but if you’re keen, it’s doable.

Friday the 28th morning is where things get interesting – and a bit intimidating. We’ve got an 12 ft swell from the NNW with a period of 10 seconds. That’s a lot of water – combined energy is ripping at 2765 – and while the wind is cross-off and clean, this is expert-only territory. The swell is too big for anything but a very experienced surfer. Afternoon turns into a choppy, cross-onshore mess.

The weekend and Monday are pretty much ruled out by onshore winds and building swell. Saturday the 29th has 6 ft–8 ft but it’s all onshore wind. Sunday the 30th blows up to 10 ft–15 ft with onshore wind – heavy and messy. Monday the 31st holds 10 ft+ with that same onshore flow. Not worth it.

Now, here’s the first real standout. Tuesday the 1st of September morning: glassy conditions, a 10 ft W swell with a solid 12-second pulse. Combined energy is 2420 – strong stuff. It’s a long-period groundswell, which can make beach breaks close out but at a breakwater setup like this it should line up nicely. The wind is glassy – that’s gold. Only for experienced surfers, as it’s over 8 ft, but if you’ve got the skills, this is the session to circle on your calendar.

After that, Wednesday the 2nd and Thursday the 3rd have more promising moments. Thursday morning the 3rd is another big standout: 10 ft from the west, 15-second period, clean offshore breeze from the ENE – about as clean as it gets for this stretch. Combined energy is massive at 3700. Again, expert only, but that’s a proper groundswell with perfect wind. Thursday afternoon is smaller at 7 ft, still clean and cross-off, and a bit more manageable.

The following week gets smaller and more inconsistent. Friday the 4th is lumpy with cross-shore wind. Saturday the 5th has a 8 ft–8 ft WSW swell with a very long 16–17-second period, but the wind is onshore, so it’s messy. Combined energy is high (2723–3396), but it’s not rideable in those conditions.

Sunday the 6th and Monday the 7th are similar stories – onshore wind spoiling decent sized swells. However, Monday morning the 7th sees glassy conditions return with a 6 ft W swell at 14 seconds. Combined energy is moderate (1334), and it’s clean. That’s a nice, manageable size for intermediates with the right board.

The final few days – Tuesday 8th and Wednesday 9th – drop off in size and are plagued by cross-shore or cross-off winds, nothing special.

Then the 16-day window closes with another serious standout: Thursday the 10th of September morning. We’ve got an 8 ft WNW swell with an 11-second period, offshore wind from the NNE, and glassy conditions by afternoon. Combined energy is cranking at 3220. This is a solid, good-quality groundswell with clean conditions – but again, 8 ft is at the top end for all but experts. It’s the best of the later run.

Best on offer: Tuesday morning the 1st of September for the glassy 10 ft swell, and Thursday morning the 3rd of September for the 10 ft groundswell with offshore wind. Thursday the 10th of September is also a beauty if you can wait that long – just be ready for a big, clean swell.

Water temp is 55° – about average for the time of year, right on the money for this part of the season. Crowds are rare here, so you won’t be fighting for waves if you pick your window.

Stay safe out there, and don’t be a hero on the 10 ft+ days unless you’ve got the experience.

Rusty.

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