Neakahine Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

First off, I’m looking at the whole 16-day window and I gotta be straight with you: it’s a rough one for Neakahine Point. We’ve got a long stretch of poor surf conditions and nothing that screams “go time.” The first real chance of anything surfable doesn’t show up until the morning of Saturday, August 15th, and even then it’s just a marginal call with a bit of hope. That’s a solid week of flat to messy junk before that.

We start off on Thursday, August 6th, with a small 4ft NW swell, but it’s choppy and the wind is cross-onshore. The combined energy of all swells is moderate at 198. Not worth paddling out. This same pattern holds through the first week: small NW swell, cross-onshore winds, and poor conditions. The swell stays tiny, the period is short (7-8 seconds), and the wind just won’t cooperate. The water temperature is about 59°F, which is pretty average for this time of year – nothing unusual there.

The real frustration is that every day is a “poor surf conditions” label. The wind is either cross-onshore or cross-shore, and the surf quality is just not there. The only small glimmer is on the morning of Saturday, August 15th, when the wind turns offshore from the west at just 3 mph. The swell is only 3ft from the WNW, period 7 seconds (short), and the combined energy is moderate (215). It’s labelled “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions,” so it’s not a winner, but it’s the first time the wind is actually clean. Then Sunday, August 16th, the morning has some offshore wind again, but the swell is tiny (1ft from the SW with a long 16-second period). That long period is all about the groundswell, but it’s just too small to do anything.

Finally, Monday, August 17th morning, we get a cleaner look. The wind is cross-offshore from the SSE at 6 mph, and the swell is 2ft from the SW (15-second period). The combined energy is 139 (weak). The comment says “surfable waves but very ordinary conditions.” This is the best we see in the first two weeks, but it’s still a long way from good.

Now, looking ahead to the second week, Tuesday, August 18th, things get a bit more interesting, but it’s still not great. The morning shows a 5ft swell from the WNW with a 13-second period and combined energy of 907 (strong). The wind is cross-onshore, though, so it’s messy. The afternoon bumps up to 6ft and 1116 energy (very strong), but still cross-onshore. That’s a lot of water moving, but it’s going to be choppy and hard to enjoy. The same goes for Wednesday, August 19th, with 5ft and 5ft waves from the W and WNW, but the wind is cross-shore. These are the only days with any real size, but the wind ruins it.

The long-range standouts are the Tuesday and Wednesday of the second week (August 18th and 19th), but they’re compromised by the wind. If the wind swings offshore, you could have a window, but as it stands, it’s a miss. The break itself is a reef and point, so it’s not the best for long-period groundswell (those 13-16 second swells) – it’s better suited to points and reefs, but the direction is wrong and the wind is bad.

Honestly, if you’re a kiteboarder, that 6ft cross-shore day on Tuesday afternoon might be more your scene than a paddle surfer’s. For the rest of us, it’s a waiting game. The spot is inconsistent, and when it does break, it’s usually crowded. But with conditions this poor, the crowds might be thin.

So, to sum it up: the best potential is on Tuesday, August 18th afternoon, with a solid 6ft WNW swell (strong energy at 1116) and a 13-second period, but the cross-onshore wind will keep it from being clean. For a cleaner, smaller window, Monday, August 17th morning is the most surfable, with 2ft SW swell and cross-offshore wind. It’s not a standout, just the least bad option.

Rusty.

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