Neakahine Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s shaping up for Neakahine Point over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, it’s a pretty bleak stretch ahead. We’re looking at a long run of marginal to poor conditions, with no real standout days to get excited about. The first few days might offer a tiny glimpse of hope, but the wind is never your friend here, and the swell quality is just off.

Starting off on Thursday the 16th, we have a small 2ft swell from the W, with a very long 18-second period. That’s a nice groundswell pulse, and the combined energy is moderate (435). The water is a chilly 55°, which is *much colder than normal* for this time of year – a solid 4° below average, so bring a thick wetsuit. But the wind is a cross-onshore, which kills the quality. It’s light, but it’s enough to put a ripple on the surface. The forecast calls it marginal, and I’d agree – it’s a tough one to get excited about.

Friday the 17th looks similar. The swell bumps up a touch to 3ft from the WNW, still with a long 17-second period, and the energy is moderate (515-535). The wind is light and cross-onshore in the morning, turning onshore in the afternoon. Still, it’s a light breeze, but the surface won’t be glassy. It’s another marginal call.

From Saturday the 18th onward, things get pretty rough. The wind picks up, and the swell drops in quality. Saturday morning has a 4ft swell from the WNW with a short 10-second period, and the wind is a cross-onshore. By the afternoon, the wind is up to 16 mph from the NNW, and the waves are chopped out. The energy is moderate (560-585), but the conditions are poor – I’d call this a write-off.

Sunday the 19th through Monday the 20th is more of the same. The swell hangs around 4ft to 5ft from the WNW to NW, but the period drops to 8 seconds, which is short-period wind swell. The wind is a moderate to gentle cross-onshore, and the water is a mess. The combined energy dips into the 300s and 400s, but it’s all chop. No good.

Tuesday the 21st and Wednesday the 22nd are still marginal. The swell drops to 3ft to 4ft, still short period (8 seconds), and the wind is light, but it’s still cross-onshore. The energy is in the low 300s. It’s not flat, but it’s not surfable in a way that’s enjoyable.

From Thursday the 23rd all the way through to the end of the month, the trend is poor. The swell stays small, between 2ft and 3ft, and the wind is almost always cross-onshore or cross-shore with a chop. The period varies from short 8-second wind swell to a few pulses of long-period groundswell (15-23 seconds) from the SW, but the wind just ruins any chance of a clean wave. The combined energy fluctuates from weak (140) to moderate (582), but the surface conditions are consistently poor.

The best of a bad bunch might be the afternoon of Saturday the 25th. There’s a 2ft swell from the SW with a very long 21-second period, and the wind is onshore but light. The energy is moderate (582). It’s marginal, but if you’re desperate, that long period might offer a few clean lines before the wind picks up. But don’t expect much.

The bottom line: the whole 16-day window is a struggle. This break is inconsistent at the best of times, and with the wind stuck in an unfriendly pattern, there’s not much to chase. The forecast can always change, but right now, I’d leave the boards at home and find something else to do.

Rusty.

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