Neakahine Point Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, I’m looking at the 16-day picture for Neakahine Point, and honestly, it’s a tough one. This spot is a reef and point setup, and it’s got a history of being inconsistent, which is a real shame because the potential is there. But for the bulk of this forecast window, conditions are just not lining up for a decent paddle. There’s a big gap at the start here; the first few days are all marginal or poor, with a cross-onshore wind and that small, short-period swell. The water temperature is sitting at 55°, which is a whopping 4° colder than normal for this time of year – that’s a bone-chilling anomaly, so you’ll want a thick suit.

The wind is messing things up badly. The swell direction is coming from the NW and later SW, but the wind is often cross or cross-on, putting a chop on the surface. The combined wave energy is moderate, sitting around the 260 to 300 mark (260 to 300), but it’s just ugly. The period is a short 8 to 9 seconds, so it’s weak, wind-swell lines. Wednesday and Thursday are a write-off.

Then we get to Friday, July 24th. Now, this is interesting. The swell height drops to 1 ft, but look at the period – it shoots up to 26 seconds! That’s a very long period groundswell. The combined energy is 391 (391), which is moderate. But the wind is still cross-on from the WSW. For a point break, a long period swell like that can be a dream, but it’s a caveat: it can slide straight down the line without a good wrap. It’s still a marginal call due to the tide and wind, so it’s not a standout, just a curiosity.

The real story is the weekend and beyond. The swell is just too small. Through Saturday and Sunday the 25th and 26th, the swell is 2 ft to 3 ft, coming from the SW, with moderate energy (400 to 745). The wind is cross-shore, so it’s a bit messy. For a reef and point, you need a bit more push to get a good wave. It’s definitely not for beginners – the swell is well under 5 ft, but the quality is poor.

From Monday, July 27th through to August 6th, it’s a long, sad run. The swell stays tiny, mostly under 3 ft, and the wind turns more cross-on or even onshore. The combined energy drops to pathetic levels, sometimes as low as 90 (90). The periods are all over the place, but mostly short and weak. The wind is a solid 12 to 18 mph from the NNW for days on end, which is just blowing the surface apart. There’s a brief moment on the 27th and 28th where the wind goes offshore from the WNW, but the swell is still only 2 ft to 3 ft and the period is 16 to 18 seconds. It’s a tease of a clean wave, but it’s just too small to get excited about.

The only tiny glimmer is on July 31st and August 1st, where the swell is 2 ft to 2 ft from the SW, but the period has dropped to 14 seconds and the wind is cross-on. It’s a no-go.

Honestly, for the next 16 days, there is no single standout day. The best you can hope for is a session on July 24th if you’re really keen on a long-period, knee-high wave, but you’ll be fighting a light cross-onshore breeze. The rest of the time, it’s either too choppy, too small, or both. Given the setup, this is a blank run that’s pretty normal for the area when the wind doesn’t play ball. The forecasts can change, but right now, I’d be looking at other plans.

This is Rusty, signing off.

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