Moses Rock Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright surfers, Rusty here. Let’s talk about the stretch ahead for Moses Rock. This is a spot that needs the stars to align, and honestly, for most of this window, they’re just not going to line up. We are looking at a run of days with a whole lot of ocean energy but very little that’s actually going to be surfable. The water’s running a touch warmer than average for this time of year, so it should be nice to be in it, but you’ll be mostly fighting the whitewater rather than riding clean lines.

We’re starting with a big, powerful groundswell from the WSW, but it's arriving with rough conditions. Tuesday afternoon is a washout with strong west winds and poor surf. Wednesday morning is still onshore, but the wind settles a bit. The real problem is that even though we have a solid 15ft swell with a 16-second period and strong wave energy (10240), it’s just not clean. The afternoon looks a bit better with lighter, cross-onshore breeze, and the score bumps up, but it’s still marginal. Thursday and Friday look poor again with fresh winds and lumpy conditions. The swell stays big, but the quality is non-existent.

Now, here’s the big one. Saturday the 8th is the standout within the first week, but you have to be careful what you wish for. The swell jumps to 21ft in the morning and 23ft in the afternoon with a massive jump in energy (18327 and 45869). This is huge, and there’s a cross-onshore wind to deal with. The data says it’s actually too big for this break, so unless you’re an expert on a proper big-wave gun and know this reef inside out, stay well clear. It’ll be a spectacle for sure, but not one for the faint of heart or anyone not chasing that extreme level.

After that, conditions remain messy. Sunday stays poor with moderate to fresh onshore winds. Monday the 10th turns to a cross-shore wind with some lumpiness, keeping things just marginal. The second week starts with a busy-looking Tuesday and Wednesday, but the wind is still onshore and the surf quality is poor. We're talking about a full week of onshores, bad waves, and no real let-up until maybe the 16th.

The real promise, though, is the tail end of the window. On Saturday the 15th, we see another bump in swell, with 16ft in the morning and 18ft in the afternoon, again too big for this break. But then on Sunday the 16th, things might finally come together. The wind drops to lighter westerlies, the swell eases to 15ft in the morning and 13ft in the afternoon, and the outlook improves to marginal with a chance of something decent. It’s the only window in the whole 16 days that looks even remotely close to normal, so mark that date. But keep in mind, this is long-range, so treat it as promising but far from certain.

Overall, this is a grim forecast for Moses Rock. The swell is constantly there, but the wind and size are working against it. There’s a massive swell event on the 8th, which is only for experts, and a potential cleaner day on the 16th if the forecast holds. Other than that, I’d be looking at other options. This is one of those stretches where the ocean is doing its own thing, and we just have to wait it out.

Rusty.

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