Cactus Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what’s coming up for the Cactus (reef) region. The forecast is a bit of a mixed bag, with a lot of waiting and a couple of promising windows if you're willing to be patient. Overall, the first week or so is pretty average with onshore winds and messy conditions, but there are a couple of true standouts tucked away in the second week.

We kick off this Sunday afternoon, the 13th, with poor surf conditions. A 4 ft SW swell at 16 seconds is on the way, but with a 25 km/h onshore wind from the SW, it’s gonna be a blown-out mess. Not worth paddling out.

Monday the 14th is a bit of a tease. The morning brings a glassy 3 ft SW swell with a very light ESE breeze at just 5 km/h—looks clean but small. The combined energy is moderate (381), but the swell is weak, so you’re looking at ankle to knee-high rollers at best. The afternoon turns cross-shore and gets choppy.

Tuesday the 15th sees a bump in size to 5 ft SW swell (period 15 seconds), with a 30 km/h cross-offshore wind from the SE. It’s cleaner, but still marginal and the wind is fresh. Combined energy climbs to moderate (1014). This is one for the intermediate crew.

Wednesday and Thursday (16th–17th) stay in the same ballpark: 4 ft to 6 ft SW swell with moderate cross-offshore winds. Thursday afternoon looks best with a light 10 km/h E breeze and clean 4 ft swell, moderate energy (416). Still, nothing to write home about.

Then the drop-off hits. From Friday the 18th through Saturday the 19th, the swell bottoms out to 2 ft–2 ft, with periods still long but the energy is weak (295–174). Strong N winds on Saturday (45 km/h) make it a complete write-off.

Sunday the 20th we see a bigger swell pulse—7 ft SW at 16 seconds—but it’s on a cross-onshore wind with a cross-chop. Strong energy (1919) but messy.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Tuesday the 22nd morning is the first real standout. We’ve got a 5 ft SW groundswell (16 seconds), cross-offshore breeze from the ESE at just 10 km/h—so the conditions will be clean, with light winds. The combined energy is strong at 1330. This is a solid intermediate-level day with well-shaped waves, good energy, and manageable crowds (crowds sometimes at Cactus). The water temperature is 16°C, which is about normal for the time of year, so no surprises there.

The second standout, and the true highlight of the entire outlook, is Sunday the 27th morning and Monday the 28th morning. Sunday the 27th morning brings a 10 ft SW groundswell at 18 seconds, very long period, with a 20 km/h cross-offshore E breeze. Combined energy is very strong (5111). This is expert territory—too big for beginners at over 8 ft. The long period will make the waves powerful and lined up, but at a reef break like Cactus, it’s going to be proper. Monday the 28th morning eases slightly to 8 ft SSW swell (period 15 seconds), with a 10 km/h SE cross-offshore breeze—still clean, strong energy (3035), excellent for experienced surfers. These two days are the best of the outlook, but remember, this is long-range so conditions could shift.

The later part of the second week (23rd–26th) is mostly poor, with onshore winds and messy surf. A few clean windows pop up on the 26th morning (4 ft, cross-offshore, moderate energy 895) but nothing special.

To sum it up: the first week is a grind, Tuesday the 22nd morning is a solid intermediate session, and the real prize is Sunday the 27th and Monday the 28th for the experts.

Rusty.

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