Montoya Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let's get into it. Rusty here.

First up, truth is, this stretch is looking pretty grim for a solid paddle. We’ve got a long, dry gap ahead. The first real nod to anything surfable doesn’t even show up until Friday afternoon, the 24th of July, and even then, it’s pretty ordinary. Up until then, it’s a whole lot of nothing – small, weak, and messy cross-onshore junk. From now until that Friday, you’re looking at a wasteland of about two days with no real surf to speak of.

So, Friday afternoon the 24th, things barely get a pulse. Montoya will see a tiny 2 ft swell from the south, but the real story is a 13-second period – that’s a proper groundswell. The combined energy is moderate at 146, and with a light, clean cross-offshore breeze, it’ll be ridable. But it’s nothing to write home about.

Saturday morning the 25th is probably the best of a bad bunch early on. We get a tiny 2 ft south swell, but the period is still a solid 12 seconds, giving it more shape. The wind is glassy. Absolutely dead calm. That’s a major positive. The combined energy is moderate (195). It’s small, but it’ll be clean. For a small wave log or a longboard, it’s your best bet if you’re desperate. But don’t expect much.

The water temp is sitting at 52°F, which is about 1°F warmer than normal for this time of year, so it’s pretty average – not a shock to the system.

Then we go into another flat spell. Sunday the 26th through to the end of the month is a mix of tiny, weak, onshore slop. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-shore, and the swell is barely a ripple. The combined energy drops into the double digits, just weak. It’s a write-off.

Now, if you’ve got some patience, things get a bit more interesting as we head into the first week of August. The 1st of August, Saturday morning, the swell jumps up to 6 ft from the southwest. That’s a solid size, but it’s coming with a 6-second period – short-period wind swell. The combined energy is strong (302), but the wind is a moderate cross-onshore at 12 mph, so it’s going to be a choppy, lumpy mess. This one is for the experts only, and even then, the conditions are poor. For a beach and point setup like Montoya, this is looking more like a kite-surfing day than a paddle session.

The real standout, if it holds, is on Wednesday the 5th of August. The morning shows a 5 ft swell from the southeast with a 10-second period. The combined energy jumps to 481 – that’s strong. The wind is a clean cross-offshore from the north-northeast at 16 mph. This is the best quality swell in the whole window. The afternoon bumps it up to 5 ft with a 528 energy, still clean. This is a late call, so it’s promising but not locked in yet. For a point break, that southeast groundswell with a clean offshore wind could set up some proper lines. Crowds are possible at Montoya, but with this being the first decent option in a week, you’ll want to get there early.

Thursday the 6th of August is also worth a shout. Morning brings 5 ft from the east-southeast, with a 9-second period and a light offshore wind from the north. The combined energy is strong (358), and it’s clean. That’s a solid day for a intermediate to advanced surfer, but the size is manageable. Afternoon sees it bump to 5 ft, still clean.

Friday the 7th of August, the swell peaks at 7 ft from the east, but the wind swings onshore at 22 mph. That’s a big, junky, blown-out mess. Combined energy is 583, but it’s a no-go for a paddle. Kite crew will be out.

So, the best of the lot? The 5th and 6th of August. If you’re marking a calendar, that’s your window. The 5th Wednesday morning offers the best combination of size, direction, and clean wind. It’s a long-range pick, so keep an eye on it, but it’s the only real standout in this whole 16-day forecast.

Stay patient, and keep the wetsuit ready.

Rusty.

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