Montoya Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been watching this stretch of coast like a hawk. Right now, we’ve got a bit of a wait on our hands. The first week is pretty much a write-off, but hang in there—there’s some real promise further out if you’re patient.

Alright, let’s start with the big picture: the first few days are a mess. Saturday the 5th kicks off with a weak 4 ft SSW swell (95 combined energy) and a nasty 30 km/h SW cross-wind making a lumpy mess. That builds into Sunday the 6th with a 7 ft to 7 ft S swell (557-677 combined energy), but it’s cross-onshore and choppy. Not worth paddling out. Monday the 7th drops off to 4 ft, still cross-onshore and messy. We’re looking at a big gap of no real surf until Tuesday the 8th.

Tuesday the 8th morning—finally a glimmer. At Montoya (beach and point), the swell drops to 3 ft from the SSE, but the wind turns light NNE cross-offshore, and the wave comment says “clean.” It’s surfable, but with only 153 combined energy and a score of 1 internally, it’s very ordinary. Better than nothing, but don’t expect much. Tuesday afternoon goes back to poor.

Then we hit another dry spell. Wednesday the 9th through Friday the 11th is tiny—1 ft or less, with weak energy and shifty winds. Surf’s practically dead. Saturday the 12th brings a spike to 8 ft S swell (639 combined energy), but it’s blown out by a near gale cross-onshore. That’s a kite-surfing day, not a paddle day.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The standout window starts Monday the 14th. Monday morning at Montoya, we get a 5 ft SE swell from the south-east, with a 12-second period—that’s a proper groundswell. The wind is light NW offshore, and the water is clean. The combined energy hits 583, and it’s rated as “expect very good surf conditions” internally. That’s the best on offer so far, and it’s gonna be a solid session for intermediate and up. The water temp is about average for this time of year, no big anomaly.

Tuesday the 15th morning is even better. A 5 ft ESE swell with a 14-second period (very long period), pushing 897 combined energy. The wind is NW offshore at 15 km/h, and it’s clean. Longer period means better-shaped waves, but at a beach/point setup like Montoya, those long lines might break a bit straight if it’s too peaky. Still, this is the standout of the whole outlook. Crowds are “sometimes” possible here, so you might have company.

Wednesday the 16th morning drops to 3 ft with 374 combined energy, but it’s still clean with cross-offshore wind. The afternoon sees a weird spike to 6 ft (1368 combined energy) from the SSE, but it’s cross-onshore and marginal. Thursday the 17th morning bounces back with 5 ft SSE swell, 12-second period, 799 combined energy, and clean cross-offshore wind—another good session.

Friday the 18th morning is a glassy gem. 3 ft S swell, 10-second period, 229 combined energy, and the wind is dead calm (glass). That’s tiny, but if you’ve got a log, it’ll be a fun, clean morning. Then it fades out into the weekend with tiny, poor surf.

So, to wrap it up: the first week is a dud. The real gold is Monday the 14th and Tuesday the 15th mornings, with Tuesday the 15th being the best—clean, 5 ft ESE swell, 14-second period, and offshore wind. That’s the one to circle. Everything after that is smaller or gets ruined by onshore slop. Be patient, and you’ll be rewarded.

Rusty.

Read more