Montoya Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what Mother Nature has in store for us at Montoya over the next couple of weeks.

First up, the water temp is sitting at 53°F, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year. So, no nasty surprises when you paddle out.

Right off the bat, we have to be honest: this forecast is a tough one. We’re looking at a long, dry spell here. The first real chance of anything decent doesn't roll around until Saturday the 25th of July, and even then, it’s not exactly going to set the world on fire. For the first five days, from Monday the 20th through Friday the 24th, it's pretty grim. We've got onshore winds and weak, short-period swell. The energy is low, hovering around the 170-286 mark, which is weak to moderate at best. The waves are all over the shop and the conditions are just poor. Honestly, not worth getting the wetsuit wet for.

We finally get a clean-up on Saturday the 25th. The wind swings to a cross-offshore breeze, which is a welcome change, tidying up those lines. The swell is small, only 4ft, coming from the East with an 8-second period. The energy is moderate at 286. The comment says "clean," so the surface will be nice, but the waves are going to be pretty weak and fat. It's a "wait for something better" kind of day.

Sunday the 26th of July and Monday the 27th offer a bit of fun for the longboard or the foiler. The swell drops right off to 2ft and 2ft, and the period stretches out to 9 and 10 seconds. The wind stays light and cross-off, so it'll be glassy. The energy is down to 86-99, which is very weak. These are "surfable but very ordinary" sessions, for those who just need to get a paddle in.

Now, here’s where it gets a little more interesting. There aren't any true standouts in this 16-day window, but the best of a tricky bunch looks like Monday the 3rd of August. Let's talk about that.

First thing Monday morning the 3rd of August, we see a glimmer of hope. The wind is forecast to be glassy from the West at just 3 mph. That’s as good as it gets for a clean surface. The swell is a small 3ft from the East, but with a decent 11-second period. This is a longer-period swell, so the waves will have a bit more push and shape for their size, with longer lulls between sets. The combined swell energy is a moderate 280. It looks like a morning where you can grab a log and have some fun, clean little waves all to yourself. Montoya is a beach and point, and while it’s exposed, that long-period East swell can wrap around the point nicely. The crowds are listed as "sometimes", so you might have to share, but with these marginal conditions, it's a safe bet you'll have plenty of room.

The weekend before that, on Saturday the 1st of August, is worth a mention for the afternoon. The wind goes cross-offshore and the swell is 3ft from the SE with a very long 15-second period. The energy is strong at 521. It’s a "marginal" call, but if you're an expert looking for something tricky, that long period could make for some weird, racing walls at the beach break. Better suited to a reef or point, but it's what we've got.

Sunday the 2nd of August morning also looks clean with a light offshore from the NNW, but that swell is tiny at 2ft.

So, for the best option: Monday the 3rd of August. Glassy conditions, a clean longboardable 3ft Easterly swell at a moderate 280 energy. The conditions will be as good as they get in this stretch, even if the size is small. For the rest of it, keep your expectations low. This is a patch that is going to be mostly flat and blown out. Keep an eye on the charts, things can always change.

Rusty.

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