Montoya Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a look at what’s on the table for the coming weeks.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a bit of a waiting game. The early part of the outlook is a mixed bag, with a lot of poor surf conditions and questionable tides. The first real chance to get wet isn’t until Saturday morning, August 8th, after a bit of a slow start.

The standout window is shaping up to be Tuesday, August 19th, through Thursday, August 20th. That’s where the real potential lies. For the experienced crew, Thursday, August 20th, is the one to circle. The northwest offshore wind will be light, from 6 to 9 mph, and we’re looking at a solid 7 ft to 7 ft swell from the ESE. That’s over 8 ft on the peak, so this is strictly for experts – the power is real. The combined wave energy is massive, hitting 1247 on Thursday morning, so you’ll feel it. The period is a very long 12 seconds, which is groundswell, and at Montoya (a beach and point set-up), it might be a bit straight for the beach, but the point should handle it beautifully. The wind is clean and offshore, so the surface will be glassy. The water is sitting at 54°, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so don’t be afraid of a shorty.

The preceding days, Tuesday, August 19th, also have some juice, with 8 ft ESE swell and cross-off winds, but the forecasts are a bit more marginal. Still, if you’re keen, there’s a wave there.

For the rest of the period, it’s a lot of cross-onshore wind and messy conditions. There’s a brief window on Monday, August 17th, in the afternoon when the wind swings to a light westerly cross-off, and we get a 6 ft swell from the east. It’s a short period, though, so don’t expect much power. The combined energy is only 298, so it’s weak. It’s a salvageable session if you’re desperate.

Before that, the first week is mostly a struggle. The morning of Saturday, August 8th, has a nice 4 ft SSE groundswell with a perfect offshore wind from the NW, but it’s a one-off. The rest of that week is plagued by strong cross-off winds and poor quality surf. The swell is present, but the wind is just ruining it.

The long-range stuff around August 21st and 22nd looks like it fades into small, weak, onshore mush. The energy drops off a cliff, down to 181. Not worth the paddle.

So, bottom line: if you’re an expert, Thursday, August 20th, is the clear winner. Clean, powerful, and offshore. For everyone else, wait and see if the forecasts clean up the weekend of the 17th. Otherwise, it’s a waiting game.

Rusty.

Read more