Montoya Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, let’s get real about the next two weeks here. The forecast for Montoya is a long, bumpy road with one clean little turn at the end. Gotta be honest, it’s mostly a waiting game.

First up, the water is running a little warmer than usual, about 1° above normal for this time of year. Not a big deal, but nice to know.

Honestly, the next week is a complete wash. We are looking at a huge gap, day after day of rubbish surf and onshore winds. From Friday the 11th all the way to the 23rd, there is nothing to get excited about. It starts with tiny 0.3m leftovers and no energy (32). Then the wind gets up on Saturday the 12th, and the swell jumps to 1.9m by the afternoon, but it’s all short-period, wind-blown junk. The energy hits 408, but it’s just a messy, lumpy, onshore mess.

Sunday the 13th still has some size, 1.5m with energy at 343, but the cross-onshore wind keeps it bumpy and poor. Not a single clean wave in the lot. The next few days have a couple of windows where the wind goes offshore, like Monday the 14th morning, but the swell is down to 0.7m and puny. It’s a tease, nothing more.

We get a bit of a pulse mid-week. Wednesday the 16th afternoon has 1.4m of SSE swell with a long 11-second period and proper energy (415), but the cross-onshore chops it all to pieces. The 17th has a cleaner look in the morning with 1.0m, but it’s still weak and marginal. This whole stretch is a total skunk. The energy is in the low hundreds, but the wind just kills it every time.

Then we hit a proper dead zone right around the 20th. The surf drops to 0.3m, the energy falls to single digits, and the flat spell continues. That’s a solid ten-plus day stretch without a single decent rideable wave.

Now, here’s where it gets a little wild. On the 22nd, the ocean gets angry. We’ve got a big pulse of 3.0m swell with strong energy (1067), but the wind is honking cross-onshore at 25-40 km/h. It’s a full-blown storm surf, completely blown out. Too big for the learners, and messy even for the experts. You’re better off watching from the beach.

That swell backs down a touch on the 23rd, but the onshores don't let up. It isn’t until Thursday the 24th that the winds finally swing around offshore. The swell has dropped to a much more friendly 1.1m from the SSE, with a decent 10-second period and energy at 205. This is the one, the highlight of the whole run. It’s clean, the winds are right, and it’s a proper, surfable size.

It won’t be pumping, but this 4ft of SSE groundswell with that light offshore flow will be the best we’ve seen in weeks. The period is good enough for some push, and there should be some fun, rideable waves. This is the day to clear your schedule.

After that, it fades out fast. The 25th still has clean conditions but the swell drops to 1ft. By the 26th, it’s back to nothing, a tiny 0.3ft blip with no energy left. That run from the 11th to the 23rd was brutal. The only real window is that Thursday the 24th. It’s a one-day show, but it should be a good one.

Signing off.

Rusty

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