Montoya Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let's have a look at what's on the cards for Montoya over the next couple of weeks.

Honestly, I gotta be straight with you – this outlook is a tough one. We're looking at a long, lean stretch with hardly a window of decent surf. For the first few days, it's all tiny, weak waves with poor conditions. The tide's gonna be lapping at the shore more than offering anything rideable. After that first week, the swell does pick up a bit, but the wind just ruins it. It's a real case of 'if only'. The best chance we get is a very brief window, but even that's a bit of a gamble.

Right now, Montoya (beach and point) is flat as a pancake. We're seeing a tiny 2ft east swell with a short 8-second period, and the combined energy is a measly 49. The water's a touch warmer than normal at 55°, but with a light SE breeze putting a bit of a wrinkle on it, it's a no-go. This flat spell drags on through the 2nd and 3rd, with the swell staying below 3ft and the wind shifting around, but never giving us a clean, rideable wave.

Thursday the 3rd is the first day we can even say the word "surfable", but it's a stretch. We get a 3ft east swell with a period stretching to 10 seconds, and the energy bumps up to 138. The wind is a light cross-offshore from the WNW, which is clean. But the word on the street is "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions". It's a longboard or a big fish kind of day, and you'd be scratching for a wave.

The real kicker is the weekend. Saturday the 5th sees a jump in size, but the wind is a mess. By Saturday afternoon, we're looking at 6ft of swell from the SSW, with a combined energy of 237, but it's being shredded by a 22 mph SW cross-shore. It's lumpy, choppy, and just plain ugly. Sunday the 6th is even worse – 7ft of S swell, 618 of energy, but with a 25 mph SSE onshore wind. That's a full-on washing machine. For the experienced paddler, there might be a heavy, blown-out wave, but for the rest of us, it's a day for the beach, not the lineup.

The whole first week and into the second is a write-off. The wind is just too strong and too onshore, or the swell is too small and weak. The only real standout, if you can call it that, is Thursday morning, the 10th of September. The wind goes glassy – dead calm – and we have a clean, 4ft east swell with a 7-second period. The energy is 184. It's not going to be epic, but it will be the most user-friendly and clean the waves will be for the entire 16 days. The water is still a touch warmer than normal for the time of year. Get on it early if you can, because it all goes to hell in the afternoon when the southerly comes up.

After that, it's back to strong, messy winds and small, jumbled swell. The 15th and 16th look particularly poor, with tiny, weak waves and strong onshore flow. This is a classic case of the forecast not giving us much to work with. It's a frustrating run for us here at Montoya, but that's the way it goes sometimes. Keep an eye on that glassy Thursday morning; it's your best and only real chance.

Rusty.

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