Montoya Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you: this 16-day window for Montoya is a tough stretch. The ocean’s going to be a bit of a mess for most of it, with the wind all over the shop and the swell not lining up the way we’d want. There’s plenty of water moving around, but the quality just isn’t there for a proper paddle out. It’s one of those runs where you’ll be checking the cam more than you’ll be suiting up.

The forecast kicks off with a bit of a false start. Friday the 14th and Saturday the 15th are no good – we’ve got a moderate cross-onshore breeze chopping things up, with swell around 3ft to 5ft at a short, weak period. Nothing doing.

Then there’s a brief glimmer on Sunday morning, the 16th. The wind swings to the north and goes light, turning the lineup clean. Swell is 4ft from the east at 8 seconds, with moderate energy (212). It’s a possibility, but the score is low and the period is short, so it’ll be pretty crumbly. Not a standout, just a small chance to get wet.

After that, we’re back into the doldrums. Monday and Tuesday are a write-off with onshore winds and lumpy conditions. Wednesday the 19th shows a real tease – the wind goes offshore from the WNW, and the surf is 4ft to 5ft from the east/southeast, with moderate energy (311). The morning looks clean, but the period is still short at 8 seconds. It’s rideable, but it won’t be memorable.

From the 20th through the 22nd, it’s mostly poor or weak, with strong winds and dropping swell. The energy just fades away, down to single digits and double digits (79, 61, 19) – that’s weak stuff, not enough to push you around.

Now, here’s where things get interesting for the long range. On Sunday the 23rd, the energy jumps up to strong (520) with a 5ft south swell, but the period is a long 12 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell, but the wind is cross-shore to cross-on from the SSW, which will chop it up. It’s a classic case of a big pulse being ruined by the breeze.

The standout of the whole window, if you can wait for it, is Thursday morning, the 27th. The energy is strong (535), with a 5ft east swell at a clean 10 seconds. The wind is light and cross-shore, so conditions should be okay at Montoya (Region_URL). It’s the best combination of size, period, and wind we see in the whole run. The direction is from the east, which is close to the S/SW optimum, but not perfect. Still, it’s the one to keep an eye on. It’s a long way off, so call it promising, not guaranteed.

Saturday the 29th has a moment of glassy conditions in the morning, but the swell drops to 3ft – just not enough juice.

So, there you have it. A lot of waiting, some messy days, and one real potential window around the 27th. For the beginners out there, the 27th at 5ft might be a bit much, and anything over 5ft days will be too tricky. For the experts, keep an eye on that 23rd if you’re brave enough to fight the chop – the long period could make it interesting at the point, but the wind will be against you.

The water temp is sitting around 52°F, which is about average for this time of year, so you’ll want a decent suit.

Hang in there. It’s not great right now, but that Thursday the 27th could be our ticket.

Rusty.

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