Montoya Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break it down in feet and miles per hour. The forecast is a bit of a flat spell, so don’t go clearing your calendar.

First up, we’ve got some surfable waves on Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th of July. Swell is tiny, about 2 feet from the East, with a short period of 7-8 seconds, so it’s weak and a bit gutless. The combined swell energy is low, in the 70-80s (83 to 88). Wind is a steady 9 mph from the NNE, blowing cross-off, so the faces will be reasonably clean. It’s not a standout, but it’s the best we’ve got in the early days for a quick splash.

Then we hit a real slump. From Thursday afternoon and all through the weekend, conditions go downhill fast. The wind swings around and picks up, bringing rain, thunderstorms, and even a risk of a heavy downpour. Wave heights nudge up a bit, but the wind is all over the place—cross, cross-on, and offshore—making a mess of it. The swell period is short, and the energy creeps up to around 180 (on Sunday the 19th) but it’s poor, cross-on, and choppy. Not worth your time.

The low point hits around Monday the 20th into Tuesday the 21st. Swell jumps to 6 feet from the East, but the period is a miserable 5-6 seconds, and the cross-on wind is fresh to strong at 25 mph. The combined energy spikes to 378 (Tuesday morning), but it’s all wind-driven chop. The beach and point setup at Montoya will be a mess—more of a kite session than a surf session.

After that, we get a bit of a drop-off. From Wednesday the 22nd to Friday the 24th, the swell backs down to 2 feet to 4 feet, mostly from the SE or SSE, with periods around 10 seconds. The wind is still cross-on or cross-off, but it’s cleaner on the Friday morning the 24th when the breeze turns light and cross-off, giving us 2 feet surfable waves. The energy is weak, around 96, so it’s a small, clean day for a longboard.

The rest of the outlook into the end of July and start of August is a mixed bag. There’s a little pulse on Saturday the 25th with 3 feet from the South at 12 seconds, but the wind is cross and cross-on, killing the quality. The energy is 250, but it’s choppy. The best of the last week might be on Tuesday the 28th afternoon, with 3 feet from the East, a light cross-off breeze at 6 mph, and clean conditions. The energy is 140, so it’s modest but rideable. After that, we see a bit of a south wind kicking in again, with messy conditions.

Honestly, there’s no true standout in this two-week window. The best bet is the early morning of the 15th or the 16th for a small, clean wave, or the lazy afternoon of the 28th. Everything else is either too small, too windy, or too messy. Keep your expectations low, and maybe check the forecast again in a few days; things can change.

Rusty.

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