Montoya Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s cooking for Montoya.

We’ve got a bit of a mixed bag coming up. The opening weekend is worth paddling out for, especially Saturday morning, but after that things get messy for a good stretch. There’s a real dry spell from Sunday afternoon right through to the end of the following week, with almost nothing worth getting wet for. The pattern finally looks like it might kick back into gear around Friday the 24th and into the weekend, but that’s a long way off, so keep your fingers crossed.

Saturday 11 July – Morning session is the pick of the opening days.
Montoya sees a clean 3 ft swell from the ESE with a lovely 11-second period. That’s a solid groundswell – 413 (moderate combined energy) – and with a light 6 mph wind from the W holding cross-off, it’s gonna be clean and workable. This is your go-to. The afternoon gets a bit bumpier with a stronger 12 mph W wind, still cross-off, but the quality drops off.

Sunday 12 July – Skip it.
Swell drops a touch to 3 ft, but a fresh 22 mph SW wind pumps straight cross-shore, leaving lumpy chop. Not worth your time.

Monday 13 to Thursday 16 July – A few glimmers, but mostly flat or messy.
Monday morning has a clean 3 ft from the ESE, but the period is a short 7 seconds – weak windswell, really – with only 217 energy. Tuesday morning looks better: 4 ft from the ESE, 10-second period, and light 6 mph N wind holding cross-off. Clean enough for a sneaky session. But then it goes downhill. Wednesday afternoon sees onshore breeze and by Thursday the swell collapses to 0.3 ft on the morning with rain. There are a couple of days here with small clean waves, but nothing special.

Friday 17 July – Saturday 18 July – Poor.
Wind gets up to 19–22 mph, swell drops under 3 ft, and the energy is weak (70–210). Not surfable in any meaningful way.

Sunday 19 July – Monday 20 July – Onshore and ugly.
Rain moves in, wind swings onshore from the S and E, and the 2–4 ft swell is all wind-driven with periods of 6 seconds. It’s messy. Energy bumps to 112 on Monday afternoon, but the wind is a fresh 19 mph cross-onshore – this is kite-surfing territory, not paddle surfing.

Tuesday 21 July – Swell tries but wind ruins it.
5 ft from the S at 6 seconds means weak, wind-affected lumps. The 217 energy is there, but a gentle cross-onshore wind means it’s choppy.

Wednesday 22 July – Friday 24 July – Poor conditions.
Swell builds from 3 ft to 6 ft, but it’s all coming from the E/SE with a persistent onshore wind. By Friday the 24th, we’ve got 6 ft from the SE at 12 seconds – that’s proper groundswell energy (794) – but the moderate E wind is cross-onshore and keeps it messy. A raw, busy ocean.

Saturday 25 July – Best of the late run, but it’s a long shot.
Montoya sees a 7 ft ESE swell (700 energy, moderate-strong) with a short 7-second period. That’s big for a beach break so not for beginners, and it’ll be dumping. The wind shifts lighter from the ENE and NE, with a cross-shore angle, so there might be a few workable corners. The afternoon holds 6 ft from the ESE at 10 seconds – better period, cleaner light wind. If you’re an expert, keep an eye on this one, but it’s a week and a half out.

Sunday 26 July – Big, but onshore.
8 ft from the SSW at 9 seconds (1087 combined energy – strong), but a moderate SSE wind puts it onshore and choppy. Too big and messy for all but the most experienced.

Bottom line:
The standout is Saturday 11 July morning – it’s clean, it’s fun, and it’s the best you’ll get for a while. Tuesday 14 July morning is a decent backup. Everything after that is either flat, windy, or a long-range maybe. For the second week, hold out hope for Saturday 25 July morning – it’s got size, but it’s a short-period swell so expect it to be dumpy.

Stay patient, mates.

— Rusty

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