Montoya Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s break down what’s happening at Montoya over the next couple of weeks.

Right now, we’re in a dry spell that’ll last a few days. The first real chance to surf comes Saturday morning, July 11th. That’s your standout. We’ve got a clean 3-foot ESE swell with an 11-second period, and the wind is offshore from the NNW—light, around 6 mph. That’s going to be glassy. The water temp is about 51°F, which is normal for this time of year. The combined energy is moderate at 413, so there’s some punch. Montoya is a beach and point setup, and with that offshore breeze, it’ll be well shaped and clean. Crowds are possible, so keep that in mind. This is the one to go for.

Saturday afternoon stays clean with a cross-offshore breeze, but the swell period jumps to 14 seconds—a long-period groundswell. That’ll make the waves more powerful and lined up, and at a point break, it should work well. Energy is similar at 400. A solid backup if you miss the morning.

Sunday the 12th is a mess—strong cross-shore winds from the SW at 19 mph, lumpy and ugly. Monday the 13th has a clean morning with a 3-foot ESE swell, but the period is a short 7 seconds, so the waves will be weak and crumbly. Energy is low-moderate at 196. Surfable, but nothing to get excited about.

Tuesday the 14th and Wednesday the 15th offer small, clean swells around 2 to 3 feet, with periods of 8 to 10 seconds. Energy stays low to moderate. These are just average days—fine for a paddle if you’re keen, but not special.

From Thursday the 16th through to Tuesday the 21st of July, it’s a mixed bag. There’s a small window on Tuesday morning the 21st with a 4-foot SSE swell, 10-second period, and a light offshore from the north at 6 mph. Energy is moderate at 282, and it’s clean. That’s a decent option, but it’s a week and a half out, so keep it in mind.

After that, things get heavy. From Wednesday the 22nd, the swell jumps to 7 to 8 feet, with strong onshore winds and choppy conditions. Energy is strong to very strong, hitting 502 to 932. That’s a lot of water, but the wind is junk—mostly cross-on and onshore. For a beach and point setup, this is more for kite surfers than paddle surfers. The period is short, around 7 to 8 seconds, so it’ll be a messy, churning mess. Not for beginners—this is expert-only, and even then, it’s not great.

The last few days, from the 23rd to the 25th, are similar: big swell, strong winds, poor quality. Energy stays high, but the conditions are trash. If you’re a hardcore charger, maybe there’s something, but for most of us, it’s a pass.

Bottom line: Saturday morning, July 11th, is your best bet. Clean, offshore, decent swell. After that, it’s a waiting game until the 21st, but keep your expectations low. Forecasts can change, but right now, it’s a lean run.

Rusty.

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