Montoya Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, let’s get into it. Rusty here, and I’ve got the goods on Montoya for the next couple of weeks.

First off, I gotta be straight with ya—this is a rough patch. The forecast is a long stretch of poor surf conditions with no real standouts for a while. It’s gonna be a quiet start. We’re looking at a gap from now until about Monday the 24th of August where there’s barely a wave worth paddling for. That’s a solid week of small, choppy, onshore junk. The swell energy is weak for most of that, with readings under 150 (moderate wave energy) and down to just 30 (weak wave energy). The wind is mostly cross-onshore or onshore from the SSE and ESE, keeping everything messy.

Now, if you’re a patient soul, there is a flicker of hope late in the window. The standout here is Montoya itself. It's a beach and point setup, exposed to the S swell direction, which the guidance reckons is the optimum. Keep that in mind.

The first day that actually shows any potential is Monday, 24 August. Come the morning, we’ve got a solid 7ft swell out of the SSE, with a very long period of 14 seconds. That’s a proper groundswell. The combined energy jumps to 1461 (strong to very strong wave energy)—that’s a lot of juice. The wind is light from the S, cross-onshore, but with that little breeze and small wind ripples, it could clean up. This one is rated as marginal for tide or conditions, but for the experienced crew, this could be a goer. That 7ft is pushing into expert territory, so beginners sit this one out. The long period will make for well-shaped, powerful waves at the point, but expect long lulls between sets.

By Tuesday, 25 August morning, the swell drops to 4ft from the SSE with an 11-second period (moderate energy at 349). The wind swings to a light NNE cross-offshore, which is clean. The forecast says “expect good surf conditions,” but the score is low, so keep expectations in check. It’s a smaller, cleaner option after the big Monday.

After that, it fades again. By Wednesday and Thursday the swell is tiny (1ft to 3ft), and the energy is weak. The water temp is hanging around 52°F with a 0.5°F anomaly, so it’s about average for the time of year, which means it’s cold—don’t forget a hood.

Bottom line: The only real standout is the Monday the 24th morning session. Big SSE groundswell, powerful, but it’s for the experts only with clean-ish wind. Tuesday morning is a smaller, cleaner follow-up if the Monday is too gnarly. The rest is pretty average, so don’t plan a trip around it unless you’re keen for a paddle and a patience test.

Rusty.

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