Montoya Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, it’s Rusty here. Let’s talk Montoya. The short story is the ocean’s been on a real downer – a long stretch of weak, bumpy swell and bad wind. The first week and a half is mostly a write-off, with a solid gap of about five or six days where there’s just nothin’ worth paddling for, right up to Sunday the 25th. The first proper hopeful window doesn’t open until Sunday the 26th.

Water temps are sittin’ around 52°F – that’s about average for the season, so you won’t need a thick steamer.

Day-by-day: Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th are a bust. We’re talkin’ tiny 2ft to 2ft south swell with a weak period around 9 to 12 seconds, and a messy cross-shore northeast wind kicking up a chop. The wave energy is real low.

Sunday the 26th is where we get a little glimmer. Swell is still tiny at around 1ft from the SSE, but the period is a decent 13 seconds, giving it some push. The wind is light out of the WSW, which is actually cross-offshore, and the notes say "clean." It’s surfable in the morning if you’re desperate, but you’ll be fightin’ for a wave with maybe 0.4m of face. After Monday the 27th, the swell dies right back again to knee-high and inconsistent.

Wednesday the 29th we see a bit of a jump in height, but it’s a cruel tease. We get a 4ft to 5ft south swell, but the period is a shocking 5 seconds – that’s pure wind swell, all push and no shape. It’s also gettin’ clobbered by a 15-20 mph cross-onshore wind from the south. Even with moderate energy, it’s a choppy mess.

The week turns into a revolving door of average conditions. Swell stays between 3ft and 5ft, with wind swinging around. It’s not until Saturday, August 1st that we get some real power. The swell holds at a solid 5ft from the east, period improving to 8-9 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 284 and then 371 by the afternoon – that’s strong energy. The wind is a moderate cross-shore from the southwest, so it’s not gonna be picture-perfect, but it’ll be the punchiest surf of the whole run.

Sunday, August 2nd offers a little hope again with a 3ft swell and a good 9-second period, but the wind is a light cross-onshore again, making it marginal. The other bigger day is Thursday, August 6th, with 5ft to 6ft from the south, but the period is short at 7 seconds and the wind goes onshore. Too messy for a good paddle.

So, what’s the pick? The best on offer is Sunday morning, July 26th. It’s tiny, but the 1ft SSE swell and clean, light offshore wind will provide the cleanest waves you’ll see all week. If you want power over perfection, Saturday afternoon, August 1st is the one – that 5ft swell from the east with strong energy is the biggest surf of the forecast, but you’ll have to swallow a lumpy cross-shore wind.

First week is for fixing your gear, not surfing it.

- Rusty

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