Montoya Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, grab a coffee and settle in. I’m looking at the 16-day window for Montoya, and honestly, it’s a tough slog. The forecast has us waiting until the 11th of August for anything that even sniffs like a surf. Even then, it’s marginal at best.

For the first few days, we’ve got nothing. The 8th and 9th are out with poor surf and stiff onshore or cross-off winds. That morning of the 10th sees some S swell pushing 6 ft, but the wind comes straight onshore – it’s all cross-on and choppy junk. You could paddle out, but you’d be doing it for the exercise, not the ride.

The first real chance, and I’m using that term loosely, is Tuesday morning, the 11th of August. There’s a SSE groundswell running at 6 ft with a period of 12 seconds. That gives it some push (combined energy of 780). The wind swings to SE at just 6 mph, which is onshore, but light enough that it might just be workable. The guide calls it “marginal” and flags a tide issue. Long period (12s) like this can make a beach break close out a bit straight, but if you time the banks right with a high-ish tide, you might snag a clean-ish one. It’s not a standout in any way – just the first day that isn't a total write-off.

The rest of the week is more of the same. Lots of cross-on winds and swell that’s either too short or has the wrong wind. That Tuesday the 18th sees a 7 ft SSW swell ride in from a short 8-second period, but the wind is onshore. The combined energy is strong (647), but the quality is poor. That’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddler’s dream – strong, choppy, messy.

The best day on paper, and it’s a relative champion, rolls around on Friday morning, the 21st of August. We get a clean, offshore W wind at 16 mph, with a modest 2 ft SSE swell. It’s small – surfable but very ordinary. The water temp anomaly at the start is a touch warmer than normal (2° above average), sitting around 54°F. For a frame of reference, that’s notably warm for this time of year.

There’s a tiny glimmer on the morning of the 22nd with a clean, light NNE breeze and a 2 ft SSE swell, but it’s so small it’s barely worth the walk down. After that, the 23rd drops to flat scraps.

Honestly, this is a dry spell. The area has no consistent pattern in this window, so a blank run isn't surprising. If you’re jonesing, that Friday the 21st is your best bet for the most pleasant conditions, but don’t expect any hero rides. Stick to the smaller tides and keep an eye on the sky; forecasts change.

Rusty

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