Montoya Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve had a good look at the 16-day run for Montoya (Montoya). Let me tell you, this one’s a bit of a mixed bag—there’s some decent swell coming, but we’ve got to wade through a lot of slop to get to it.

The pattern starts off pretty grim. From Monday the 10th through to Saturday the 15th, it’s a write-off. The swell is there—south to south-southeast around 3 ft to 6 ft—but the wind is just cruel. Cross-onshore, choppy, lumpy, and the combined wave energy sits between 136 and 963 (moderate to strong), but it’s all messy. The Monday morning session on the 10th has a 6 ft S swell, but with a cross-on wind at 16 mph, it’s just poor. Not worth paddling out for.

We get a bit of a reprieve on the 17th of August (Monday) and 18th (Tuesday) morning. The swell is still up—7 ft S on the 17th and 6 ft S on the 18th—but the wind swings to a cross-off or cross-offshore, and the combined energy is strong (472 to 595). The 18th Tuesday morning and afternoon sessions are “clean” with the cross-off breeze. That’s the best of the early run, but it’s still a bit rowdy for beginners—swell over 5 ft—and the period is short (8 seconds), so it’s going to be a bit sectiony. Still, it’s better than the trash before it.

Now, the standout window is Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th. Wednesday morning brings a 4 ft SSE swell with a 10-second period, light N wind at 6 mph, cross-off, and the combined energy is moderate (328). That’s clean, glassy, and the water temperature is 53°F, which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so it’s not a teeth-chatterer. By Wednesday afternoon, the swell drops to 4 ft, but with a light offshore WNW wind, it’s going to be smooth and fun. Thursday the 20th morning keeps it going with a 3 ft SSE swell, 12-second period, and a cross-off breeze—clean, tidy, and the combined energy (348) is still moderate. The longer period (12 seconds) means the waves will have a bit more shape. This is the pick of the month—small but clean, and with the offshore or glassy conditions, it’s a true standout for a quiet session.

After that, it fades. From Friday the 21st onward, the swell drops to 3 ft or less, the period goes short, and the wind gets messy again. The 22nd and 23rd are tiny—2 ft to 3 ft, with combined energy as low as 44—and the wind is cross or cross-on. There’s a small spike on the 24th (Monday) afternoon with a 4 ft SSE swell and a 6-second period, but the combined energy is only 174, and it’s cross-shore. Not worth a paddle. The 25th (Tuesday) has a 5 ft to 6 ft south swell, but the wind is howling at 28 mph, cross-off, and the combined energy is moderate (261-278). That’s a big wind, so it’s expert-only and more of a windsurf or kite setup than a paddle—too sketchy for most.

So, the long story short: the first week is a dud, with a brief clean-up on the 17th and 18th, but the real gem is Wednesday the 19th and Thursday the 20th for a clean, small-wave session. The rest is flat or blown out. Keep an eye on the forecasts, because it tends not to stay this poor for long, but right now, that mid-week window is your best bet.

Rusty

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