Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—it’s been a pretty dead stretch for waves, and we’ve got a long wait ahead. The next week and a half is looking pretty grim, with flat, messy, or blown-out conditions dominating. We’re talking a real desert out there until things finally turn on.

It’s going to be a solid eight-day gap with nothing worth paddling out for. The first real bit of promise doesn’t show up until Sunday the 23rd. There’s a pulse of south swell pushing through with 4ft at 12 seconds, and the morning has a light WSW wind keeping it clean. That’s a brief window of hope, but it’s short-lived. The afternoon gets a NE onshore, and the energy is moderate (511 combined energy). It’s a quick hit, but if you’re keen, that’s your first look.

After that, it drops right back off again. The 24th and 25th are tiny and weak, with offshore winds making it look clean but leaving you with nothing to ride. You’ll be staring at ankle-biters.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The long-range forecast is showing something special, but it’s a long way out. On the 26th of August, we’re looking at a solid SSW groundswell hitting 10ft. The morning has a moderate offshore wind and it’s going to be cooking. This is a big step up, but the water’s still cold and it’s going to be powerful.

The real standout, though, is the morning of Thursday the 27th of August. This is the one to circle on the calendar. We’ve got a 16ft south swell at 12 seconds, with a gentle offshore wind. The energy is just insane (12892 combined energy). This is a heavyweight, expert-only session. If you’re not comfortable in serious, hold-onto-your-lunch waves, stay on the beach. It’s all-time potential but heavily charged.

And the very next morning, Friday the 28th, might just be the pick of the entire run. The swell is up to 18ft from the south at 13 seconds, and the wind is dead glassy—zero, absolute glass. The energy is colossal (16044 combined energy). This is as good as it gets, but again, it’s for pros only. The crowds will be out for this one, so expect the lineup to be packed, but the conditions will be as clean as you’ll ever see. It’s a once-in-a-while type morning.

After that big pulse, it slowly backs off into the 29th and 30th. The 29th still has some serious size (12ft) but the wind starts to shift, making it less ideal. By the 30th, it’s dropping fast and the onshores are back, so the window closes pretty quickly.

So, bottom line: if you’re a beginner or just want a casual paddle, forget the next week and a half. If you’re an experienced charger, you’re waiting for that Thursday the 27th and Friday the 28th window. It’s a long-range call, so don’t hold your breath, but if it comes together, it’ll be worth the wait.

Stay salty.

Rusty

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