Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s break it down. The next sixteen days start with a bit of a flat spell, but a solid winter groundswell window opens up later. Manly is the only spot on the cards, a sheltered point break that’s a beginner’s haven when it’s small. The water temp is sitting at 64°, which is about average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first few days are a write-off. Monday the 27th has a tiny 4ft south swell with a short 9-second period, but the wind is a messy cross-off and the combined energy is only 244, so it’s weak and ordinary. That afternoon and all of Tuesday and Wednesday are flat and poor. We’re looking at a 3-day gap with no real surf on offer.

Thursday the 30th is where it gets interesting. The morning brings a solid 7ft south swell, 9-second period, with a clean offshore wind from the WSW at 9 mph. The combined energy jumps to 1383, which is strong. The point will be a bit chunky for the groms at that size, but conditions will be clean and lined up. Thursday afternoon still holds at 6ft with 509 combined energy.

Friday the 31st keeps the run going: 6ft south swell, 10-second period, gentle offshore in the morning. Combined energy at 760. Good, clean waves with a bit of punch. Saturday morning the 1st drops to 5ft but still has that offshore wind, though the energy is down to 344. It’s surfable, but nothing special.

After that, we hit another lull. Sunday the 2nd through to Tuesday the 5th morning is mostly small, under 4ft, with poor wind directions. Tuesday afternoon the 5th sees a 4ft south swell with a short 7-second period, so it’s weak and messy. The combined energy is only 247.

The real standout comes on Wednesday the 5th morning: 6ft south swell, 7-second period, but the wind is a solid offshore at 12 mph. The combined energy is 457, and the conditions will be clean. That afternoon, though, it gets bumpy with stronger wind.

Thursday the 6th morning is another good one: 6ft south swell, 8-second period, moderate offshore wind. Combined energy at 468. Clean and punchy.

But the highlight of the entire outlook is Friday the 7th. The morning serves up a 8ft swell from the southeast, with a very long 12-second period – that’s proper groundswell. The wind is a moderate offshore from the SW at 12 mph, and the combined energy is a massive 1393. That’s a big, clean, powerful swell. For a point break like Manly, that long period will wrap in nicely and give some great, long walls. It’s a bit too big for beginners, but for intermediate and above, it’s the pick of the fortnight.

Saturday the 8th is even bigger, with 12ft from the southeast and 11-second period, combining for a whopping 2924 energy. That’s expert-only territory. The morning is glassy with a light cross-off, but the size is intimidating. After that, Sunday the 9th drops to 7ft, but the wind shifts onshore, so it’s messy.

The second week fades out with small, weak swells and poor wind. Nothing to get excited about from Monday the 10th onward.

So, to sum it up: the first few days are a wash. The real action is Thursday the 30th through to Friday the 7th. The standout is Friday the 7th morning – that 8ft, 12-second groundswell with offshore wind is the one to circle. The earlier Thursday and Friday windows are also solid, especially if you want a bit less size. If you’re an expert, Saturday the 8th morning is a beast, but respect the power.

Rusty.

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