Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Righto, let’s get into it. The first real chance of a wave at Manly comes Wednesday morning, the 16th. Before that, Tuesday is a bit of a non-event – tiny, messy leftovers with a weak 2 to 3 foot of short-period slop. Not worth paddling out for.

Wednesday morning is where it kicks off. We’ve got a solid 11 foot of south swell rolling in, with a 10-second period. That’s a lot of water moving, and the combined energy is a hefty 2553, so there’s plenty of grunt behind it. The wind is offshore from the southwest, which is a huge bonus, keeping things clean. But to be honest, this one is pushing it. That size is borderline expert territory, and with it being a point break, it could be a handful. The afternoon holds the size but the wind swings more cross-off, which will still be okay, but the forecast is a bit marginal – tide could be a factor.

The standout of the whole run has to be Thursday morning, the 17th. The swell drops back to a much more manageable 8 foot, still from the south with that same 10-second period. The energy is still substantial at 1321. But the big difference is the wind: a gentle offshore from the southwest. That’s the recipe for clean, lined-up point surf. This is the pick of the first week, no question. If you can only get out once, make it Thursday morning.

After that, things fade and get messy. Friday is smaller and onshore, Saturday is tiny, and we’re in a bit of a flat spell through the middle of the period. There’s a lump of 5 foot that appears Monday afternoon, but the wind is average, and it’s not clean enough to get excited about.

We then see a push of new swell on Tuesday the 22nd, with 8 foot from the south in the morning. It’s clean with a cross-off breeze, and the energy is moderate at 944. That’s a decent session, but the period is only 9 seconds, so it might be a bit sectiony. The afternoon turns to chop, so stick to the morning.

From the 23rd through to the 26th, we’re in a poor stretch. The wind is mostly onshore and fresh, with a mix of weaker, short-period north-east swell. The mornings are blown out, there’s rain about, and the whole setup just looks ugly. Not one for the water.

There’s a final little pulse of 5 to 6 foot around the 26th and 27th, but it’s from the north-east with a short period of 7 to 8 seconds, and the wind is on it. It’s going to be messy and poor. The energy levels are low to moderate, in the 500-700 range, but it’s not going to offer any quality.

The tail end of the forecast, the 30th, sees a small 4 foot south-east swell with a clean offshore in the morning. It’s tiny, but it might be the only clean, surfable wave on offer in that last week, even if it’s pretty ordinary. Water temp is a normal 64° for this time of year, so no worries there.

Overall, don’t sleep on Thursday the 17th. That’s your wave. Tuesday the 22nd is a solid second, but Thursday is the one.

Rusty

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