Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab your wetties. It’s a tricky few weeks ahead, but there are a couple of windows where it could fire.

The word is that things start out pretty grim. We’ve got a pulse of energy rolling in from the SSE that’s bringing a solid 10-foot to 12-foot swell, but it’s coming with a strong 15 to 18 mph cross-off wind out of the SSW and S, which is just ruining it. It’s an absolute washing machine out there. The wave energy is massive, hitting 2617 to 2865, but honestly, it’s a blown-out mess for paddle surfing. Stick to the cliff walks on Tuesday.

Wednesday calms down a bit with the swell dropping to 8 feet from the SE, but that 12 mph south wind is still making it lumpy. The water temp is sitting at 64°, which is pretty much average for this time of year, so no surprises there. You’re still looking at marginal conditions with a score that leaves no one excited.

Now, here’s the one true standout for the first week. Thursday morning, July 9, things start to tidy up. The swell settles to a clean 6 feet from the SE, and the wind goes light out of the SSW at just 6 mph. The wave energy drops to a more manageable 813, but it’s clean. Then, the real magic happens on Friday, July 10. We’ve got a 5-foot SE swell with a 9-second period, but the wind goes *glassy*. A light WNW breeze in the morning and a glassy calm in the afternoon. This is your window. The wave energy is moderate at 412 to 463, but with those clean, smooth conditions, Manly (Sydney) is going to have some fun, shapely waves. This is the pick of the fortnight.

Saturday, July 11, the size drops to 4 feet and then 2 feet. The morning is cross-shore, but the afternoon goes glassy again with a long 13-second period pushing in from the ESE. The wave energy is weak (272), but for a longboard or a mini-mal, that afternoon session will be a treat.

After that, it goes flat and weak. From Sunday, July 12, right through to Monday, July 20, we’re looking at a long dry spell. Swell sizes are mostly below 3 feet, with wave energy dropping into the double digits and low hundreds (128, 86, 28...). There are some light offshore winds here and there, but there’s just not enough push. It’s a true lull, and it’s going to feel like a long one.

But hold onto your hats because the second week has a promise. On Tuesday, July 21, we see a massive Groundswell event sneaking in from the S. The combined energy jumps to a staggering 7113. The swell height is forecast at 16 feet. This is big, heavy, and for experts only. The period is 12 seconds, so it’s a proper groundswell with a lot of power. It’s going to be breaking straight and fast at beach breaks, so you want a point or a reef. The wind is a strong 25 mph cross-off from the west, which will keep it from being completely blown out, but it will be raw. This is a long-range call, so it’s promising but not locked in yet. If it hits, it will be the biggest day of the outlook. Wednesday, July 22, it drops to a still-chunky 8 feet from the S, with a moderate offshore. That’s a big, powerful day that will need your best board and your A-game.

So, in short: Friday July 10 for the cleanest, funnest waves of the first week. Then, keep an eye on Tuesday July 21 for a monster swell that could be the real story if the winds play nice.

Rusty.

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