Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G'day, Rusty here. Look, the next couple of weeks at Manly are a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got some solid swell on the way, but the wind is gonna be a real pain in the arse for a lot of it. The water temp is sitting right on 64°, which is dead average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

The first run of surf kicks off Thursday the 9th. We’ve got a clean 6ft to 6ft swell out of the SE, with a period of 10 seconds. The wind is light and cross-off, keeping things tidy. The combined energy is moderate (832), so there’s a bit of push behind it. This is a solid, fun-sized wave for a point break like Manly. It’s a beginner-friendly spot, but it’s often crowded, so you’ll be sharing it. The best bet is probably Thursday morning, with that light cross-off breeze and a bit of rain to keep the crowds thin.

Friday the 10th holds similar. Still 6ft to 6ft from the SE, light cross-off winds, and clean conditions. The energy drops a touch (573-593), but it’s still good fun. Friday afternoon is the pick with a slight air and light rain.

Then we hit a real flat spell from Saturday the 11th through to Wednesday the 15th. The swell drops right off, with heights under 3ft and weak energy (as low as 22). The wind is all over the shop, and the conditions are poor. Tuesday the 14th afternoon is a tease with a tiny 1ft and offshore wind, but it’s just not worth paddling for. This is a four-day gap with no real recommendations.

Thursday the 16th is where things get big. A massive 18ft swell from the SSE hits, with a 10-11 second period. The combined energy is very strong (6576-6719). But the wind is howling 25-28 mph from the SSE, onshore and cross-off, making it a total mess. This is expert territory, and even then, it’s more of a kite-surfing show than a paddle session. The set-up looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Friday the 17th and Saturday the 18th are still huge, with 15ft to 16ft swell and strong cross winds. The energy is still very strong (4312-6855), but the wind is cross-shore and lumpy. Same story – big, brutal, and ugly.

Now, the standout. Sunday the 19th. We’ve got a 12ft to 10ft swell from the SSE/SE, with a period of 11 seconds. The wind drops right out to a light 6-9 mph cross-off, and the forecast says "excellent surf conditions for experienced surfers." The combined energy is strong (2862-2023), but the clean conditions and solid groundswell will produce some proper waves. This is a long-period groundswell, so it’ll be better shaped and have longer gaps between sets. At a point break like Manly, that’s a good thing. This is the best on offer, and it’s worth waiting for. Just remember, it’s over 8ft, so it’s only for the experienced crew.

Monday the 20th sees the swell drop back to a more manageable 6ft from the SE, with light cross-off winds. It’s clean and good fun, but the afternoon turns to crap with onshore wind.

Tuesday the 21st is a write-off, and then Wednesday the 22nd brings another big 12ft swell from the SSE, but with 15-22 mph winds. It’s messy and marginal.

Thursday the 23rd is still big (10ft) and windy, though Thursday afternoon has a solid offshore wind from the SSW. The energy is still strong (1934), and it’s fresh offshore and clean, but it’s a big wave.

Friday the 24th is the final note. We’ve got a 8ft to 6ft swell from the ESE, with a light cross or glassy wind. The energy is moderate (1269-762). Friday afternoon looks glassy, which is a nice way to finish the period.

So, if you’re picking a day, it’s Sunday the 19th. That’s the standout. The rest is either too small, too flat, or too blown out. Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

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