Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this forecast for Manly is a real mixed bag, and for a point break that loves a solid south swell, we’re gonna have to pick our moments carefully. The first few days are pretty grim, but there are a couple of windows where it all comes together, and one morning in particular looks like the pick of the whole run.

The opening stretch is a write-off. Monday the 10th is blown out with strong northwesterly winds and messy cross-chop, with 7ft of short-period ENE windswell just making a mess of things. Tuesday the 11th is smaller and cleaner, but still poor. We finally get a bit of life on Tuesday afternoon though—a 5ft south swell at 12 seconds rolls in with light west winds, and that’s the first real sign of hope. The energy is moderate (779), and for a point break like Manly, that south direction is what we want. It’s a decent wave, but not a standout.

Wednesday the 12th drops right back off, and Thursday the 13th is where things get interesting. Thursday morning sees a 6ft south swell with a short 8-second period, but the winds are offshore from the WSW. That’s clean, but the short period means it’ll be a bit lumpy and less organized. The energy is solid (511), and it’s surfable, but it’s not the classic Manly shape we’d hope for. After that, it fades fast. Friday is ordinary, and the whole weekend is a write-off—small, weak, and messy. The 15th and 16th have some rain and onshore movement, and the swell drops to almost nothing. The long-period pulses on the 16th (16 seconds) are too small to matter.

Then we hit a flat spell. From the 17th through the 20th, there’s nothing doing. The swell is tiny, the winds are cross or onshore, and it’s just not worth paddling out. It’s a few days of nothing, and you’re better off doing something else.

But hang on—the 21st is the one. Friday morning the 21st looks like the standout of the whole forecast. We’ve got a clean 6ft ENE swell at 8 seconds, but the wind is glassy—absolutely dead calm. The energy is strong (740), and for a sheltered point like Manly, that combo of size and glassy conditions is rare. It’s going to be clean, lined up, and probably a bit crowded because everyone will be onto it. The short period is a slight caveat, but with that glass, it’ll still be fun. That’s the morning to get out there.

Saturday the 22nd morning is also worth a mention—5ft ENE at 9 seconds with glassy conditions again (404 energy). It’s a bit smaller, but still clean and user-friendly. After that, the wind swings onshore from the ENE and the quality drops off a cliff. Sunday the 23rd has a bigger 7ft ENE swell (1404 energy) but with moderate onshore winds, it’s going to be a messy, blown-out mess. Too big and too windy for the point to handle; that’s more of a kitesurfing day than a surfing day.

Into the second week, things get quieter again. The 24th and 25th have some chest-high easterly swell but onshore winds ruin it. There’s a marginal window on the 25th morning with light winds, but it’s ordinary.

So, bottom line: the 21st morning is the clear winner—glassy, solid, and clean. The 22nd morning is a good backup. Everything else is either flat, windy, or just not worth the effort. It’s a lean stretch, but that one morning will make it worth it.

Rusty out.

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