Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s have a look at what’s on offer for the Manly stretch over the next couple of weeks. I’ll be straight with you – it’s a tough run for the most part.

We start off with a bit of a gap. The first few days are a write-off for any decent paddle. Wednesday the 2nd and Thursday the 3rd are basically flat with tiny, weak swell and bumpy winds. You’re looking at a combined wave energy of just 139 early on Wednesday, dropping to 82 by Thursday arvo. Not worth wetting your wetsuit for.

Friday the 4th morning shows a glimmer – a 3ft south swell, with a light offshore breeze out of the west-northwest. The energy climbs to 229, but it’s still just ordinary. The wind is light though, so it’ll be clean. If you’re desperate for a paddle, dawn patrol might give you a couple of knee-high runners.

The weekend is a mess. Saturday has strong onshore wind and the swell drops. Sunday the 6th morning actually has a better looking 3ft south swell with a longer 12 second period and that light southerly breeze – clean conditions. Combined energy jumps to 311. That’s your first real chance for a session, but don’t expect perfection.

The following week is a bit of a mixed bag. Monday the 7th has some size but it’s onshore and messy. Tuesday the 8th morning is weird – glassy conditions with a tiny 4ft north-east swell, but the period is a short 7 seconds. It’s clean but the energy is weak (144). You’ll get a few dribblers.

Wednesday the 9th morning is also glassy, with a light north-west wind and a 3ft north-east swell. Again, clean but small. The shine wears off by the afternoon with a nasty 34 mph southerly.

Now, if you’ve got patience, the real standout is Tuesday the 15th. The morning kicks in with a solid 10ft south swell, a 13 second period, and a clean cross-off wind from the south. The combined energy is a massive 2788 – that’s serious power. But here’s the catch: that’s big, heavy groundswell. For a point break like Manly, that’s a good thing, but it’s also expert-only territory. The tide and direction will be key. This is the one to circle on the calendar. The afternoon drops to 8ft and goes a bit cross-shore, so the morning is the window.

The rest of the run into the 17th is mostly onshore, choppy, and dropping. The 14th has some OK-looking surf but nothing special.

So, to sum it up: the best surf on offer is Tuesday the 15th morning. Big, powerful south groundswell, clean offshore wind, and plenty of energy. It’s for the experienced crew only. The second-best option is Sunday the 6th morning – smaller, but clean and with a bit more shape than the rest.

Crowds are always a factor at Manly, so expect company, especially when it’s clean.

The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing unusual.

Stay patient, and keep an eye on that Tuesday the 15th.

Rusty.

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