Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this is one of those stretches where you’ve gotta pick your moments. The next couple of weeks are mostly small and messy, with a few windows that are rideable but not memorable. The real standout is right at the end of the forecast, and it’s worth waiting for.

We’re looking at Manly (Sydney) as the only spot in play. It’s a sheltered point break, which helps, but for the first several days, the swell is tiny and the wind is mostly cross-off or cross-onshore. Monday the 3rd has some poor surf, nothing worth suiting up for. Tuesday and Wednesday are even smaller—under 2ft—with clean but gutless conditions. You’d be fighting for knee-high dribbles.

The first glimmer comes Thursday morning the 6th: 4ft of S swell, light cross-off wind, and the water’s still clean. It’s ordinary, but you’ll get a few. Friday morning the 7th is similar, 4ft again, clean, but don’t expect much push. The weekend drops right back off—low energy, messy afternoons. Not your day.

Monday the 10th through Wednesday the 12th offers some clean, small waves in the 2ft to 4ft range. The mornings look better with offshore or light winds. It’s not going to blow you away, but if you’re itching, those early sessions are your best bet. Thursday the 13th has a fresh offshore but the afternoon turns to strong southerly wind, so get in early. Friday the 14th morning is clean at 4ft, but the afternoon brings a longer period S swell—14 seconds—which is a hint of things to come, though still small.

Now for the real deal. Sunday the 16th afternoon sees a pulse of SSW swell hitting 6ft, but it’s short period and messy. Not the one. But Monday the 17th—that’s where it’s at. A proper S groundswell builds through the day: 7ft in the morning, jumping to 8ft by the afternoon, with a 12-second period and light cross-off winds. The combined energy is strong (1653). This is the standout of the whole stretch. Manly will be holding size, and with that light wind, it’s going to be clean and punchy. This is expert territory though—over 8ft is pushing it for most, and Monday afternoon’s right at that mark. Tuesday the 18th morning keeps the goodness going: 7ft of S swell, 11 seconds, moderate offshore wind, energy still strong (1034). Expect very good surf.

So here’s the bottom line: you’ve got a week and a half of small, average stuff with a few clean but weak mornings. Then the real swell arrives on the 17th and 18th. That’s the window. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing crazy. Crowds at Manly are often a factor, so on the big days, get out early or be ready to share.

Rusty out.

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