Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let’s talk about what’s happening at Manly. It’s a point break, sheltered from the swell, and the water is at 64°, which is pretty much normal for this time of year.

The short story is: this forecast is a slow burn, and you’ll be waiting a while for anything truly worth paddling out for. For the first block of days, from the 20th through the 23rd, it’s pretty grim. The southeast swell is small and weak, with combined energy down around 132 to 102, and the wind is mostly onshore or cross, making it messy. Best to leave the board in the shed for those days.

Now, things start to look up on Friday morning, July 24th. A new south swell pushes in at 6 ft, with clean, light offshore wind from the WSW, and the combined energy jumps to 602. That’s your first real window – decent, clean waves for the intermediate surfer. The swell period is a moderate 9 seconds, so it’s not groundswell, but it’ll be fun.

The standout of the whole window, though, is Thursday afternoon, July 30th. We’ve got a solid 7 ft south swell with a 12-second period, wind from the west at 6 mph, and combined energy hitting 1290. That’s a proper groundswell pulse, and with light offshore wind, you’re looking at clean, lined-up point waves. The 7 ft size is getting into the expert range, so this is for the experienced crew. It’s a long way out, so keep an eye on it, but it’s the one to circle on the calendar.

Then, looking way out, Tuesday morning, August 4th also has a big one: 8 ft south swell, 11-second period, light offshore wind, and combined energy of 2304. That’s a serious amount of water moving, and it’s rated as excellent for experienced surfers. Again, long-range call, so not a guarantee, but it’s promising.

Outside of those two spikes, the rest of the two weeks is a mix of small, weak swell or onshore winds. The 29th of July has a glassy afternoon with 6 ft, but the period is short and energy is still high, so it might be fat and lumpy.

So, bottom line: the best of the best is Thursday afternoon, July 30th for the combo of size, direction, and clean wind. The Tuesday, August 4th morning session is a very close second if you’re an expert. The first week is mostly a write-off.

Rusty, signing off.

Read more