Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s coming our way over the next 16 days.

Honestly, it’s a rough stretch. We’ve got a long period of mostly poor surf, so don’t get too excited. There are only a couple of brief windows where it’s even worth thinking about getting wet.

I’m looking at Manly (Sydney) – a point break that’s pretty sheltered and likes a SE swell. Water temp is about 65°, which is normal for this time of year, nothing weird going on there.

Right off the bat, Tuesday the 8th is a waste. There’s a 2.5m S swell at 9 seconds, but it’s messy with a cross-off wind from the south at 15 mph. The combined energy is a big 1019 – that’s a lot of power, but it’s all over the place. The afternoon cleans up a little with a 2.0m SSE swell, but the cross-off wind is still hanging around, making it pretty average.

Wednesday the 9th morning is a little tease. The swell drops to 1.0m from the S, and we get a clean offshore wind from the SSW at 12 mph. It’s surfable, but the energy is weak (193) and the period is short at 8 seconds. The afternoon is a disaster – 3.0m S swell, but the wind cranks up to 25 mph from the south, a full-on cross-off. The energy hits 1025, but it’s a blown-out mess.

Thursday the 10th is more of the same: 3.0m S swell all day, with moderate to fresh cross-off winds. The afternoon has a longer period of 11 seconds, and the energy is massive (2253), but the wind is just too strong for clean waves. This one’s for experts only, if anyone’s dumb enough to try.

Friday the 11th is the best of a bad bunch. The swell drops to 2.2m in the morning, still cross-off from the SSW, but energy is lower (948). The afternoon has a 2.0m S swell, 10-second period, and a gentle cross-off from the SSE at 9 mph. It’s clean, but just barely worth a look. Crowds are often, so you’ll have company.

Then comes the big gap. From Saturday the 12th all the way through to Tuesday the 22nd, it’s a long, sad run of poor surf. The swell drops to under 1.0m, winds turn onshore or cross-onshore, and the energy is weak. A few mornings have glassy conditions, like Wednesday the 16th morning with a light S wind at 3 mph and a 1.3m swell – but it’s short period (8 seconds) and the energy is just 358. It’s surfable, but very ordinary.

The only real standout in this whole 16-day stretch is Sunday the 20th morning. We get a 1.1m S swell at 8 seconds, but the wind is offshore from the WSW at 9 mph, and the energy is 228. It’s clean, it’s gentle offshore, and it’s the most promising of a very sad bunch. The break is a point, so that short period isn’t ideal, but at least the wind is on your side. Crowds are often, so be ready to share.

Other than that, Wednesday the 23rd morning has a 0.7m S swell with a long 11-second period and light offshore from the WNW at 9 mph, energy at 256. It’s tiny, but clean. For a longboard or a funboard, it might be a nice little session.

Bottom line: this is a tough run. The first week is mostly blown out or too small, and the second week is a flat spell. If you’ve got to paddle out, make it Sunday the 20th morning or Wednesday the 23rd morning. Otherwise, wait for the next system.

Rusty.

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