Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you—this 16-day window for Manly is a real mixed bag, and for the most part, it’s a tough slog. We’ve got a long stretch of weak, messy, or just plain ugly surf to get through before things finally clean up. The first proper swell worth paddling out for isn’t until the 15th of July, and even that comes with a big caveat.

The early part of the window is a write-off. Tuesday the 14th is tiny, with a weak 1.0ft to 0.7ft SSW/S swell and a 12 mph cross-off breeze. The water is sitting at 64°, which is pretty much average for this time of year. You’d be better off staying home.

Wednesday the 15th morning is where it gets interesting, but it’s for experts only. A solid 10ft S swell rolls in, with a 10-second period and a strong 16 mph offshore from the SSW. The combined energy is massive at 1522, so there’s serious power in the water, but this is no beginner’s session. That size is intimidating and the current will be pushing. The afternoon drops to 8ft but the wind goes cross-off, so it’s still a handful.

The rest of that week into the weekend is nothing special. Thursday the 16th is blown out by 19 mph winds, and the swell is dropping. Friday the 17th sees a 3ft S swell, but with a short period of 6 seconds, it’s weak (132 combined energy). The conditions are ordinary, and the crowd is often there at Manly, so it’ll be a battle for scraps.

We then hit a real dead zone. From Saturday the 18th right through to Wednesday the 23rd, there’s nothing but poor surf and onshore or cross-shore winds. The swell is small, inconsistent, and the energy is low. It’s a proper gap of about 5 days with no real recommendations.

Now, the standout. Thursday the 23rd of July morning is the session to aim for. We get a 5ft E swell with a long 14-second period, which is a proper groundswell. The wind is light and off from the W at 6 mph, making for clean conditions. The combined energy is a solid 1095, so there’s good push. The optimum direction for Manly is SE, so this E swell is a little off-angle, but it’ll still wrap in nicely. This is the best on offer, and the forecast is promising but still a fair way out, so keep an eye on it.

Friday the 24th morning is a decent backup with a 5ft E swell, 11-second period, light offshore wind, and 583 energy, but the afternoon gets ruined by onshore NE wind.

The end of the window, Monday the 27th of July afternoon, shows another late pulse: a 7ft S swell, 10-second period, with a light offshore cross-off from the S. The energy is 1062, so it’s got some punch, but the wind is light and you’ll be dealing with a clean, powerful S swell. It’s a decent option for the second week, but again, it’s a long-range call.

So, in short: the 15th is for the brave, the 23rd is the real golden window, and the 27th is a late hope. The rest is a struggle. Stay patient.

Rusty.

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