Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Look, I’ll be straight with you – the next couple of weeks are a slow burn. There’s barely a ripple for the first nine days, then a massive pulse of swell turns things proper for a couple of days before it settles back down. You’ve got to be patient, but if you can wait, there’s a day that’s going to be absolutely mental.

Alright, let’s start with what we’ve got. Right now and through to the 1st of September, it’s flat and messy. We’re seeing small, weak S swell around 3ft but the wind is a light cross-onshore N’ly, so the wave energy is weak (228). Honestly, it’s just poor surf, leave the board at home.

Moving into the 2nd and 3rd, the swell drops off even more, down to 2ft to 3ft. The wind tries to go offshore on the 3rd, but there’s simply no power. The combined energy dips below 100 (71), so it’s a complete write-off for a paddle.

We have a little bump on the 4th with a 4ft S swell, but the N’ly cross-on wind spoils it – combined energy is 262, but with that wind, it’s just poor.

The 5th and 6th are still rubbish. The 6th does see a jump to 5ft S swell (646 energy), and the wind is light and cross-shore from the SE, making it glassy, but the conditions are still marginal. It’s a tease, not a real session.

Then, a big gap of nothingness. The 7th and 8th stay poor, and the 9th brings solid 6ft to 7ft S swell (593 to 1256 energy) but with a strong 28 mph southerly, it’s just a washing machine. Not for surfing.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. On the 10th of September, the swell jumps to 10ft to 12ft from the S (3015 energy). This is solid, heavy stuff, only really for experienced surfers. The wind is a strong cross-offshore, so it’s clean but powerful. Still, the conditions are marginal – this is a big, raw ocean.

But the absolute standout, the day you’ve been waiting for, is Friday the 11th of September. Manly is the only game in town. We’ve got a huge 16ft swell from the south with a very long period of 13 seconds (14864 energy). This is pure groundswell, proper energy. The wind is a gentle cross-offshore from the S, 9 mph, keeping it clean. This is exceptional surf – but, and it’s a big but, at 16ft this is a big-wave session for experts only. The south swell will be wrapping in well, but the long period means it might break a bit straight on the beach. The point setup here should handle it nicely, offering some proper walls. Expect a crowd – this is the kind of day people drive hours for. The water temp is 63°, which is a touch below average for this time of year (by 1°), so you’ll want a good suit.

After that peak, things settle down. The 12th has a smaller 6ft SSE swell (528 energy) with light offshore SW winds in the morning – that’s actually a fun, clean session for most. The 13th brings 4ft to 5ft SE swell (517 to 572 energy), and Sunday morning the 13th is glassy with NE winds, making for some clean little runners. The 14th is great, with a 4ft SE swell (469 energy) and glassy conditions in the morning – that’s a lovely, quiet paddle.

The final few days, the 15th and 16th, see the swell fade to nothing again. There’s a slight bump on the 16th with a 4ft NE swell, but it’s only 6-second period, so it’s weak and messy. The window is closed.

To sum it up: you’ve got a long flat spell, a massive but expert-only day on the 11th (the best by a mile), and a few clean, smaller windows on the 12th, 13th, and 14th for the everyday surfer. Don’t bother paddling out before the 11th.

Rusty.

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