Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here.

Look, the next two and a half weeks are a real mixed bag. We’ve got a long slow patch before the energy really turns on. For the first week, it’s mostly small, messy, and not worth the paddle. Then, late in the month, the ocean wakes up. The standout is the morning of Thursday, August 27th, at Manly. That has the real potential to be the session you remember.

The water temp is sitting at 63°, which is a touch under a degree cooler than average for this time of year, so pretty standard. Nothing wild.

Starting off now, from Wednesday the 19th through to Sunday the 24th, it’s pretty grim. The waves are small, usually under 3 feet, and the winds are all over the shop – cross-onshore, onshore, not clean. The energy is weak, with combined swell energy readings mostly under 145. Just a lot of grovelly, choppy conditions. Not your time.

Monday the 25th has a spike to 5 feet from the NE, but with a period of only 7 seconds, it’s just a messy windswell. The afternoon goes glassy and drops to 4 feet, which is surfable but very ordinary. The combined energy is 200, which is at least moderate.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The standout for the whole outlook is the morning of Thursday, August 27th. We’re looking at a solid 10 feet from the S, with a 10-second period. That’s proper groundswell energy, a combined energy of 1666. The wind is a sweet, gentle offshore from the SW, which will keep Manly clean and lined up. This is big for a point break; it might be a bit too much for beginners, but for anyone with a bit of experience, this is the one to circle on the calendar. The afternoon looks a bit more bumpy with a cross-onshore wind.

Friday the 28th drops back a bit, but the morning has a clean 5 feet from the SSE under a light cross-offshore wind, and the afternoon goes glassy with the same size. Good, fun waves.

The weekend of the 29th and 30th stays active. Saturday morning the 29th has some clean 4 feet from the SSE under a moderate offshore. Saturday afternoon jumps back up to a big 10 feet from the S, but with a fresh cross-offshore breeze. That morning session is the better bet for quality. Sunday the 30th morning has 7 feet from the SSE with a moderate offshore; that’s a really solid, clean option.

The last days of the month and into September keep things going. Monday the 31st has a good 6 feet from the SSE under a gentle cross-offshore breeze. Tuesday the 1st of September has a very long period swell of 12 seconds from the SE at 5 feet. That’s a classy groundswell, but the wind is cross-shore, so the shape might be a little tricky. The energy is 808, which is strong. After that, it slowly runs out of steam into smaller, cleaner but smaller waves.

So, bottom line: the first week is a write-off. Don’t stress about it. But the window from the morning of August 27th through to the end of the month has some serious potential, with that Thursday morning being the absolute highlight. Get yourself ready for that.

- Rusty

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