Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, and I’m looking at the next couple of weeks at Manly, and it’s a real slow burn. We’ve got a long stretch of nothing before anything worth paddling out for shows up.

The first week, from Sunday the 12th through Saturday the 18th, is almost a total loss. We’re seeing tiny, weak swell, like 0.6 to 3 feet, with poor conditions across the board. The combined energy is in the low two-digit range, which is just pathetic. The wind is mostly cross-off, so it’s clean, but there’s simply no wave to ride. You’re wasting your time.

Then on Wednesday the 15th, the swell jumps to 8 feet from the south, but it’s a short period, about 8 seconds, and the wind is a messy cross-off at 15 mph. The combined energy hits 829 (moderate), but it’s still poor. By the afternoon, the energy climbs to 1083, but it’s a marginal, messy slog. Not worth it.

The only real standout, the one that gets me excited, is the following Sunday, the 19th of July. We’re looking at a solid 8 to 10 feet of easterly swell, with a period of 11 seconds. That’s proper groundswell, and the combined energy is a massive 2093 in the afternoon (strong wave energy). The morning is looking clean with a light SSW breeze at 6 mph. Manly is a point break, and it’s sheltered from the southeast, so this east swell is a good fit. The water temp is about 65°, which is normal for the season. The crowds are listed as "sometimes," so expect company. For that Sunday morning, it’s the best we’ve got.

Monday the 20th rolls over with a 8-foot east swell, still 11 seconds, but the wind turns onshore and cross-shore, messing up the surface. The energy is still high (1486), but it’s not clean. Then we get a solid Wednesday the 22nd. The morning shows a 6-foot east swell with a very long period of 13 seconds and a light offshore wind from the west at 6 mph. The combined energy is 1324. The guidance says "very good surf conditions," and that light wind should keep it glassy. That’s a second highlight, but remember, that long period can make the waves a bit too straight at a beach break, but Manly is a point, so it should handle it well.

The rest of that week into the next weekend gets messy again. Swell hangs around the 5 to 7 foot range, but the wind is inconsistent, with a lot of cross and cross-on conditions, and the energy drops. By the 26th and 27th, we’re back to tiny, weak surf.

So, to put it simply: the first week is a total dud. The only real bet is to pencil in the morning of Sunday the 19th for the best combination of size and clean conditions. The Wednesday the 22nd morning is a good backup for cleaner, longer-period waves, but it’s smaller. Don’t plan your life around anything else.

Rusty.

Read more