Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the cards for Manly.

Mate, it’s a tough start for the next week and a half. The swell is tiny and the conditions are just not cooperating, so we’re looking at a long dry spell up until the second weekend. The first real glimmer of hope comes on Saturday the 16th, but you’ll have to be patient.

For the first several days, Tuesday the 4th through to Thursday the 13th, we’re stuck with nothing worth paddling out for. Swell heights are mostly under 3 feet, energy is weak (between 25 and 348), and the wind is all over the place. The water temp is about average for this time of year, no big anomalies to report.

The action finally kicks off on Friday the 14th of August. A big jump in swell arrives, with a solid 10 feet from the south, but the period is only 9 seconds. The combined energy jumps to 1551 (moderate-strong), but these are big, raw waves – not for the faint of heart. It’s too big for beginners, and with the wind blowing cross-off, it’s messy. The morning is rain showers, the afternoon clears, but it’s still a big, lumpy ocean. Honestly, this looks more like a day for the kite crew than paddle surfing.

The standout window is Saturday the 15th and Sunday the 16th. Saturday morning sees a massive 16 feet swell from the SSE with 11-second period, and energy readings are through the roof at 5306 (very strong). This is huge, heavy water – expert only territory. The wind is light cross-off in the morning, but by afternoon it turns cross-shore, creating chop. Sunday the 16th morning is the absolute best of the lot. The swell drops slightly to a still massive 15 feet from the SSE, period 11 seconds, with energy at 4937. The wind is from the NW at just 3 mph, glassy and clean. For experienced surfers, this is an excellent window. The wave shape will be powerful, but with a long period, it’ll be better for the point, peeling off clean. Just be aware, the crowds are often around here, so expect a lineup.

After that, the swell drops through Monday the 17th (10 feet, SE) and Tuesday the 18th (6 feet, ESE), but the wind gets stronger and onshore, so the quality fades fast.

To sum it up: The first week is a write-off. The only real chance to score is Sunday the 16th early – that’s the one to circle. The swell is big, but the clean, glassy conditions are a rare treat for the point. Just don’t be a beginner out there.

Rusty.

Read more