Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you—this stretch of forecast for Manly is a bit of a mixed bag, with a whole lot of flatness bookending a wild, powerful pulse in the middle.

The window kicks off this Saturday morning, September 12th, with the best surf you’re gonna see for a while. We’ve got some clean 4ft south swell with a solid 12-second period rolling in. The wind’s glassy, almost nothing out of the north, so it should be looking smooth and lined up. The water’s sitting at 64°F, which is right about normal for this time of year. This is the standout of the early run, no doubt—a proper little session before everything goes flat.

But don’t get too attached. From Saturday afternoon onwards, the wind swings onshore and it turns to junk. The swell drops right off, and we’re looking at a bunch of poor days through Sunday and into Monday. By Tuesday the 15th, it’s tiny—less than 3ft—and while the wind is better, there’s just no power behind it. We’re scratching around for anything, and there’s nothing worth getting wet for.

Then the ocean wakes up hard. Wednesday the 16th is a big change. The swell cranks up to 12ft, jumping to 13ft by the afternoon, with south/southwest energy. But the wind is howling at 22–25 mph, cross-off but strong. The energy reading is huge (1770, then 3166), but it’s raw and lumpy. This is proper heavy stuff—over 8ft means experts only. It’s powerful, but it’s not clean. Thursday the 17th stays big, dropping from 10ft to 8ft, still with fresh cross-off winds. It’s surfable for the crew who know what they’re doing, but it’s a battle, not a treat. Friday the 18th drops back to a pathetic 4ft and the wind is messy again. The energy is weak (336). We’re back to square one.

The following week is a write-off mostly. Saturday the 19th has a little 3ft east swell, but it’s cross-on and weak. After that, it’s flat city. Sunday the 20th, Monday the 21st—there’s nothing, with energy readings down in the teens and fifties. You’d be better off taking the week off.

The only other blip is around Tuesday the 22nd, which pushes back up to 5ft to 6ft from the south/southeast, but it’s still carrying the poor label. Then it fades again. The last few days, from the 24th to the 27th, are all under 4ft, mostly weak and onshore. There’s a moment Thursday morning the 24th with a bit of 4ft and glassy conditions, but it’s a short-period windswell, so it won’t have any punch.

So, if you’re keen, your window is Saturday morning, September 12th. That’s the clean, fun one. The mid-week giant swell is for the brave or the silly, but it’s not a good look for a beginner. Everything else is a paddling exercise. It’s a weird run, but that’s how the ocean goes sometimes—you gotta take what it gives you.

Rusty.

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