Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty. Let’s cut to the chase for the next couple of weeks. It’s a pretty bleak forecast for the most part, with a lot of small, weak, or blown-out days. The first real wave of note doesn’t show up until the middle of next week, so don’t get your hopes up for the next several days.

This Sunday arvo is a waste of time. There’s 1.8m of SE swell, but a NE wind is just going to chop it up. The combined energy is moderate (1000), but it’s a mess. Water temp is 63°F, which is about normal for this time of year.

The first part of next week is just as poor. Monday through Thursday mornings all have surf under a metre, and the wind is inconsistent. A few periods have light winds, but there’s just no energy to ride. It’s a frustrating, flat spell.

Thursday the 6th has a bit more size – 1.6m S swell – but the onshore ENE wind ruins it. Friday the 7th has some S swell in the morning, but it’s weak.

The weekend of the 8th and 9th is flat out grim. Saturday has just 0.6m leftovers and then a NE breeze. Sunday gets blown out with a strong NW wind. This is the low point.

Early the following week, we see cleaner conditions with WSW winds on the 10th and 11th, but the swell remains tiny, around 0.7m. Not worth the paddle.

The 12th and 13th continue the same theme – small ENE swell and light winds, but no power.

Things finally start to move on Friday the 14th. A 1.9m NE groundswell with a 9-second period shows up, and the energy jumps to 546. The wind is a cross-off S, which is promising, but it’s still a bit marginal.

Saturday the 15th afternoon is where it starts to get real: a 2.0m SSW groundswell with a 12-second period, strong energy at 1263, and a light S cross-off wind. It’s getting closer, but still not perfect.

And then we get to the standout. Sunday the 16th morning is the one to mark in the diary. We’ve got 2.0m of S groundswell, with a 13-second period, and the energy is cranking – 1353. But the kicker is the gentle offshore SSW wind. That’s the clean, powerful combo we’ve been waiting for. The wave comment says it all: “expect very good surf conditions.” This will be a proper south swell pushing into Manly. It’s sizable, so not for beginners, but for anyone comfortable in overhead waves, this is the session.

Monday the 17th is still a good follow-up, with 1.9m S swell and a 14-second period, along with light offshore W winds in the morning. Energy is still strong at 1529. It’s not quite as perfect as Sunday but still very solid. The afternoons get a bit messy with the ESE cross-shore, so get on it early.

So, it’s a long, flat grind until next Sunday. But when that S groundswell hits, it’s going to be well worth the wait. Keep an eye on it as the date gets closer, but that Sunday morning is the one I’d save for.

Stay salty.

Rusty

Read more