Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, grab a coffee and settle in. Let’s talk about the next couple of weeks at Manly.

Right off the bat, we’ve got a bit of a slow start. Monday the 7th is pretty much a write-off with small, junky waves. Not worth paddling out for.

But things start to shift on Tuesday the 8th. The morning brings a muscular 8ft S swell, but that’s paired with a strong 16 mph SSE wind. It’s big, but messy. The afternoon is the real story here. The swell drops to a still-solid 7ft from the SSE, the wind eases right back to 6 mph and goes cross-offshore. It’s a major positive – the waves will be clean. This is the standout session of the first half of the week for a confident surfer. The combined swell energy is a strong 624, so there’s plenty of push. At that size, it’s more for intermediate-to-advanced crew.

Wednesday the 9th sees the swell drop right off in the morning to a weak 3ft S swell (207 energy), and while the wind is offshore, the conditions are just too small and weak to get excited about. The afternoon is the opposite problem – a bigger 10ft S swell but with a brutal 28 mph wind. That’s a survival session or a kite day, not a paddle day. Same story for Thursday the 10th and Friday morning, with 10ft+ S swells and strong onshore winds creating angry, blown-out surf. The energy is huge – up to 2400 – but the quality isn’t there.

Okay, now we’re talking. Friday, September 11th, morning is the absolute standout of the entire 16-day window. We’ve got a clean 8ft S swell (10-second period, 1185 energy) and a beautiful offshore 9 mph SSW wind. This will be Manly at its best – powerful, clean lines with hollow sections. This is the session to plan around. For the experts, this is it. Crowds are possible here, so get in early.

Saturday the 12th is a good follow-up with a dropping 6ft S swell, light offshore winds, and clean conditions. That’s a fun, manageable day for the average surfer. The 11-second period will give it some nice shape and energy (837).

After that, we hit a long, dry spell. From Sunday the 13th all the way through to Monday the 21st, there is almost nothing worth paddling for. The swell plummets, mostly under 3ft, with persistent onshore and cross-onshore winds. There’s a small window on Friday the 18th with a 3ft swell and a cross-offshore wind, but it’s too weak. This gap runs for about eight days.

The forecast tries to fire up again on Tuesday, September 22nd, with a big 10ft S swell rolling in, but it’s met with a 13 mph onshore wind from the NE. That size with NE wind on Manly will mean it’s a washing machine. The combined energy is up around 1319, so there’s serious power, but the quality will be poor. That one’s for the experts who don’t mind a beating, but it’s not a recommendation.

Water temp is running right around average for this time of year at 65°, so you won’t need a winter suit.

Remember, the first week’s forecast is solid; the second week is promising in size but very uncertain in quality.

Rusty.

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