Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and we’ve got a mixed bag ahead for Manly. The first few days are pretty flat and weak, but hold tight—there’s some serious juice coming in the second week.

The week kicks off with barely a ripple. Friday 3rd and Saturday 4th July offer tiny, gutless swell—just 2ft to 4ft from the NE and S, with periods under 12 seconds. The combined energy is weak, sitting between 34 and 483. Winds are cross-off, but the surf is poor or only ordinary. Not worth paddling out. Sunday 5th sees a jump to 10ft from the S with a period of 11 seconds and the combined energy hitting 2191. That’s moderate-to-strong energy, but it’s messy—SSW 19 mph offshore on Sunday morning might sound good, but the conditions are marginal, with questionable tides. This is getting into expert territory at 10ft, with that longer period sending heaps of juice. It’s big, but the quality suffers from the strong breeze.

Monday 6th and Tuesday 7th hang around 7ft to 8ft from the SSE/SE, with the combined energy still strong (1083 to 1274). Winds are mostly cross-off, but conditions are only marginal. The best of the first week looks like Tuesday morning, with a 7ft SSE swell, 10-second period, and an offshore SW wind at 12 mph keeping it clean. That’s moderate-to-strong energy (1265), and the offshore wind is a real bonus. It’s solid, but it’s on the bigger side for the difficulty—still, for those with some experience, it’s got punch.

From Wednesday 8th to Friday 10th, the swell drops back to 4ft to 8ft, with that strong energy fading from 850 down to 290. The offshore winds on Wednesday and Thursday mornings (WSW and SSW at 9–16 mph) keep things clean, but it’s nothing special. Crowds are often a thing at Manly, so expect company. Then, we hit a flat spell from Saturday 11th through to Tuesday 14th morning, with swell below 3ft and energy in the gutter—down to 19. That’s a solid 3–4 days with nothing worth mentioning.

But here’s where it gets interesting. Tuesday 14th afternoon kicks off a new pulse: 7ft from the S at 10 seconds, combined energy of 864. It’s still listed as poor conditions, but Wednesday 15th morning turns it up—8ft S swell, 10-second period, light WNW 6 mph cross-off winds, and a combined energy of 1254. That’s clean, strong, and surfable. The real standouts, though, are Thursday 16th July. Morning brings a 13ft S swell with a very long 13-second period, combined energy of 5581—that’s very strong. Winds are light WNW at 6 mph, cross-off, making for excellent conditions. This is expert-only stuff at 13ft, and with that long period (over 15 seconds), it’s going to break straight and hollow on a beach setup like Manly. It’ll be more interesting for the experienced crew, but you’ll want a reef or point to get the best out of it. Thursday afternoon stays at 12ft with the same period and light offshore winds—still excellent. If you’re a solid surfer, this is the pick of the whole forecast, but it’s a big call this far out.

Friday 17th drops to 8ft with 12-second period, but heavy rain and a strong SE breeze at 28 mph wreck the afternoon. Saturday 18th is even bigger at 15ft from the S, 11-second period, with combined energy roaring to 8320—very strong wave energy. Winds are SE at 22 mph, cross-off, but with rain showers and those massive numbers, it’s more of a spectacle than a session. The size and wind will make for tough paddling, especially for beginners. Overall, the best on offer is Thursday 16th July—big, clean, and powerful, but only for experts. The first week you can mostly sleep in, but that second week has a proper pulse coming through.

That’s how it’s shaping up. Rusty out.

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