Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here with a look at what’s on the menu for the next couple of weeks. We’ve got a bit of a flat spell to kick things off, so don't be in a rush to wax up. The good news is, there's a pulse of proper swell lurking way out in the forecast, but we've got to earn it with some patience.

We’re looking at a pretty quiet run for the first week or so. From Wednesday the 12th right through to the end of the following week, it’s mostly small, weak, and inconsistent. The swell energy is sitting in the moderate range (around 200-500) but the wind is just never on our side. Most days we’re dealing with cross-offshore or cross-on breezes, and the swell direction is coming from the S or SE, which isn't the best for this spot. Manly is a sheltered point break, and it likes a good swell from the SE to really light up, but the period is short—mostly 7 to 10 seconds—so the waves are weak and lack punch. The water temp is about average for this time of year, so nothing out of the ordinary there.

Things start to look a bit more interesting on Thursday the 20th. We get a bit of a spike in energy with a glassy morning. The swell is coming from the ENE with a 5ft height and a 9-second period. The energy is moderate (420). This is the first real window of clean surf, but it’s still not a standout. The period is a bit short and the swell direction is a bit too east for the point to really wrap in perfectly. It’s surfable, but don’t expect a world-class session.

Now, here’s the real one to keep an eye on. Wednesday the 26th is looking like the genuine highlight of the entire 16-day window. The morning session is where it’s at. We’re looking at a solid 12ft swell from the S, with a 9-second period. The combined energy of all swells directed here is a punchy 2272, so there’s plenty of power in the water. The wind is a light cross-offshore from the WSW, which will keep the surface clean. This is a big, powerful swell, so it’s not for the faint of heart. At 12ft, it’s strictly for the experienced crew. The short period (9 seconds) means it’s a wind swell, so it’ll be a bit chunky and less refined than a groundswell, but with that much energy and clean wind, it’s going to be on. The afternoon sees the wind swing onshore from the E, which will mess things up, so get out there early.

The rest of the week after that is a mixed bag. Thursday the 27th has an 8ft S swell but the wind is strong and cross-on, so it’s going to be a choppy mess. The energy is still strong (1213) but the conditions are just poor.

So, to sum it up: the first week is a write-off for decent surf. The best bet is to wait for the big pulse on the morning of Wednesday the 26th. It’s a long way out, so the forecast could shift, but right now it’s the only true standout. The glassy morning on Thursday the 20th is a decent backup if you’re desperate for a paddle.

Stay patient, and I’ll see you out there when it fires.

Rusty

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