Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at the Manly stretch for the next couple of weeks, and I’ll tell you straight – it’s a mixed bag, but there’s one clear standout.

Wednesday the 16th – there’s some size on offer, around 11.5 feet from the south, but the wind is a fresh cross-offshore, and it’s looking marginal. The water’s at 63.5°, right around normal for this time of year. The energy in the water is solid – reading 2374 – but the quality just isn’t there. You’d be working hard for not much.

Thursday the 17th is the one to circle. The morning is the standout of the whole first week. Swell drops a touch to 10 feet, still from the south, but the wind goes offshore at 15 mph. That’s a beautiful combo. The energy jumps up to 3383 – you can feel that raw power. The period is around 10 seconds, which is solid. This is the one for experienced surfers – it’s a big, clean wave. The afternoon fades with lighter cross-shore wind and the swell dropping to 7.5 feet, so get out early.

Friday the 18th – the swell backs off to around 5 feet. The morning is glassy, with barely any wind out of the northwest. That’s lovely for a clean, smaller session. The energy is weak – 498 – so it’s not a big-wave day, but for a longboard, it’ll be clean and fun. The afternoon turns onshore and the quality drops fast.

Saturday and Sunday, the 19th and 20th – pretty ordinary. Swell down around 2.5 to 3 feet, light winds but mostly onshore. The energy is weak – in the 150 to 300 range – not worth paddling out for much.

Monday the 21st is a write-off – 3 feet from the south, moderate cross-offshore, but tiny and weak. Energy reading of 260 – nothing to get excited about.

Tuesday the 22nd brings a bit more size – 5.5 to 7 feet – but the period drops to 7 seconds, short-period wind swell. It’s got some push, energy around 600, but it’s messy. Surfable but marginal at best.

From Wednesday the 23rd through the end of the month, it’s grim. Swell stays up around 5.5 to 8 feet, but it’s all short-period, onshore junk. Wind mostly out of the east or northeast, blowing onshore at 12-18 mph. The energy is moderate – 300 to 780 – but it’s choppy, lumpy, and poor. This is more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle session.

There’s a tiny glimmer on Friday the 25th morning – glassy moment, light northerly wind, 5 feet from the northeast, but short-period and cross-shore. Still ordinary. Then Saturday the 26th morning is worth a mention. The wind is glassy out of the north-northeast, and the swell is 6 feet from the northeast. It’s still short-period at 7 seconds, but the clean face could give you a few fun ones. Energy reading of 511. But the afternoon blows out.

After that, it’s a long stretch of poor conditions right through to the end of the month. The 27th, 28th, and 29th are all onshore, short-period, messy. Swell hangs around 4.5 to 7 feet, but not worth the hassle.

Wednesday the 30th – a bit of hope. Morning has a cross-offshore wind from the west-northwest, swell at 3 feet from the east-northeast. Energy is weak at 191, but it’s clean. The afternoon actually turns offshore from the southwest, which is a bonus, but still small.

Thursday the 1st of October – mixed. Morning is cross-offshore from the west, 3.5 feet from the east-northeast, but not great. Afternoon swings to a strong south wind at 25 mph with a 5-foot short-period swell – that’s junk.

So, to sum it up – the standout of the whole window is Thursday the 17th morning at Manly. That 10-foot south swell with offshore wind and strong energy (3383) is the pick. It’s powerful and for experienced surfers. The only other half-decent option is Saturday the 26th morning, when glassy conditions make the most of a modest 6-foot northeast swell, but it’s short-period, so don’t expect miracles.

The rest is mostly poor. If you’re keen, get out Thursday the 17th or maybe Saturday the 26th morning. Otherwise, it might be a good week to fix the dings.

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