Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for Manly over the next couple of weeks. Honestly, it’s a bit of a mixed bag with a whole lot of ordinary days to sift through, but there are a couple of moments where things line up nicely.

Right now and for the next several days, it’s pretty slim pickings. The wind is mostly onshore or cross-onshore through the weekend and into early next week, with small, short-period swell – around 2ft to 4ft from the south or northeast – but the conditions just aren’t there. You’re looking at choppy, messy surfaces or light wind ripples, and the overall wave energy stays weak to moderate (values between 48 and 444). Nothing worth paddling out for, honestly.

Things start to get interesting mid-week. On Wednesday the 16th, we’ve got a solid pulse of south swell pushing in: 10ft early, building to 13ft in the afternoon, with a moderate 9-10 second period. That’s some proper energy – combined energy readings of 1595 and 2938, so the ocean will have some weight behind it. The wind swings offshore (SSW), so that’s clean, but those sizes are for experienced surfers only. Beginners, sit this one out. Thursday the 17th keeps the energy going with 8ft to 10ft south swell, same clean conditions cross-off, but still big and powerful.

After that, it fades fast. Friday the 18th drops off to 3ft with onshore wind again, and the following days are mostly small, weak, and messy through the rest of the period. There’s a brief moment on Saturday the 19th morning where a bit of ESE swell (3ft, 11 second period) lines up with a light westerly cross-off – that’s surfable but very ordinary, and energy is only 386. Not a standout.

For the standout, it’s got to be Wednesday the 16th and Thursday the 17th. The biggest swell of the window, clean conditions thanks to the offshore flow, and plenty of power. Manly is a sheltered point break, and this south swell hits it at an optimum angle (SE), so it should wrap in nicely. Just be aware: with waves over 8ft, this is expert territory. And with crowds noted as “often”, there will be plenty of company. Water temp is 63°F, which is about 1°F below the norm – pretty average for this time of year, nothing to shock you.

If you’re looking for anything after that, the weekend of the 20th onwards is flat or tiny with poor winds. The 26th (Saturday morning) has a glassy moment but only 3ft of weak, short-period NE swell – not enough to get excited about.

So, in short: big south swell mid-week is the real deal, but it’s for the brave. The rest of the 16-day run? Mostly wait-and-see.

Rusty.

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