Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at a pretty grim stretch for Manly. It’s a point break that’s sheltered from the swell, so it's always going to be a bit of a struggle, but this forecast is just sad. The whole 16-day window is flat, messy, or blown out, with only a couple of tiny windows of something that might be worth a paddle if you’re truly desperate.

For the first week, honestly, forget it. From Tuesday the 18th right through to late August, it’s a wasteland. The swell is tiny, mostly under 2.5 ft, and the wind is all over the shop – cross-onshore, onshore, or just plain ugly. The combined swell energy is weak, barely hitting the 100s on the 18th (217) and then dropping into the double digits and low triple digits for days. The water temp is 62.8°, which is about 1.4° colder than normal, so nothing wild there.

The first real sign of life – and I say *sign* – is early on the 28th of August. Friday morning shows a little 2.3 ft NE swell with a gentle offshore wind from the SSW. That’s clean. The energy is still low (121), but it’s surfable. It’s not a standout, just a sigh of relief after a long, flat week.

Now, the true standout in this whole sorry forecast is Sunday the 30th of August. Mark it in your calendar. Sunday morning, Manly gets a solid 8.2 ft groundswell from the S, with a period of 18 seconds – that’s very long period energy. The combined swell energy is massive, at 6764. That’s a lot of power. The wind is a clean offshore from the SSW, so it’ll be *clean*. This is a big, powerful swell for Manly, and it’s only for experienced surfers. Anything over 8.2 ft is expert territory, and this one is 8.2 ft exactly. The long period means it’s a proper groundswell, and on a point break like this, it could be incredible. But the afternoon turns cross-onshore, so the morning window is the one.

The following Monday, the 31st, there’s still a 6.2 ft S swell, but it’s onshore wind and messy. The energy is still high (1084), but the quality is gone. After that, it fades back into tiny, weak, onshore junk for the first couple of days of September.

So, the honest truth? There’s a solid 10-day gap of nothing, then a tiny clean window on the 28th, and then a real, heavy, expert-only morning on the 30th of August. That 30th is the only one that gets the heart pumping. Everything else is a skunk.

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