Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Gotta be honest with ya, looking at the next 16 days for Manly and it’s a bit of a rough stretch. We’ve got a long, quiet gap to start, so don’t rush to grab your board just yet.

The first real chance for anything surfable rolls in on the morning of Tuesday, the 15th of September. We’re looking at a small, weak swell—about 3ft from the NE, but with a short, snappy period of 7 seconds and not much energy behind it (126). The good news is it’s clean with a light SW offshore breeze. It’s surfable, but very average. That afternoon it drops right off and turns messy, so that morning window is your only play that day.

Wednesday the 16th brings a sudden jump in size, but don’t get too excited. Strong southerly swell pushes in at 12ft with a moderate 10-second period. That’s a big, powerful wave (combined energy of 2426) and with a fresh cross-offshore breeze, it’s going to be a bumpy, tricky beast. That’s strictly for experienced surfers only; if you’re a beginner, sit this one out. The afternoon stays similar, just as big and a bit mushy. This setup honestly looks more interesting for kite surfing than for a clean paddle session.

Now, here’s the standout. Thursday morning, the 17th of September. It’s the one true gem of this entire forecast. The swell eases slightly to a still-chunky 10ft from the south, with that same 10-second period and a massive 3158 reading for combined energy. But the kicker is the wind—a light offshore from the SSW. That’s going to groom those faces and hold them up, delivering excellent conditions for experienced surfers. It’s not for the faint of heart, but if you’ve got the skills and the board for a solid South swell, this is your window. Expect some sets and some lulls with that period. The crowd factor is there, but on a thumping day like this, the pack usually thins out.

After that, it’s a slow fade. The rest of that week and into the next is a drawn-out run of weak, onshore, or messy conditions. Swell sizes drop below 5ft and the wind is mostly on it, leaving the surf pretty poor. From the 20th of September right through to the 26th, we’re looking at a dry spell. The energy completely bottoms out, with many days recording combined energy under 100 and waves below 3ft. It’s a classic flat patch for the area. A few small pulses try to show toward the end of September and the start of October, but they’re all onshore and junky. The 29th of September morning has a clean cross-offshore wind, but the swell is only 3ft and weak, so it’s a scratchy, small-wave session at best.

So, to sum it up: if you’re an expert, circle Thursday the 17th of September on your calendar. Everyone else, it’s a waiting game. The ocean will turn back on eventually, but for now, it’s pretty grim.

– Rusty

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