Manly Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for the next couple of weeks.

To be straight with you, the first week is pretty grim. We’ve got small waves and a lot of ordinary conditions, with a few days where you’d be better off staying home. The first real glimmer of hope doesn’t show up until the tail end of the period. There’s a big gap of flat to weak surf from now until about the middle of next week, so don’t get your hopes up for a quick fix.

The main spot in the frame is Manly. It’s a sheltered point break, which is a good thing given the southerly angle we’ll be seeing later. The water temperature is sitting at 63°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year – about a degree and a half off, so it’s a little nippy.

Alright, let’s run through it. Friday 7th morning is small, with a 2ft southerly swell, but the light westerly keeps it clean. It’s surfable, but nothing to write home about. The weekend is a write-off: Saturday and Sunday are small, with cross-onshore winds and choppy conditions. Monday 10th has a strong cross-shore wind, messy and not worth it. Tuesday 11th morning is clean again with a 2ft south swell, but it’s ordinary. The whole week is a bit of a dud.

Now, things start to get interesting around Thursday 13th. A strong south swell pushes in, with a moderate offshore wind from the west-southwest. The swell jumps to 8ft in the morning, then 10ft in the afternoon. The combined energy is hefty – 787 (moderate) and 1892 (strong) – but this is proper size. Over 8ft, it’s expert territory. The period is short at 8 seconds, so it’s wind swell, but with that clean offshore wind, it’ll be lining up. This is a heads-up for the experienced crew.

Friday 14th looks like the standout of the first week. Morning swell is 8ft from the south, period 12 seconds – that’s proper groundswell, with good energy (2011). The wind is moderate offshore from the west-southwest. By the afternoon, it drops to 7ft, still south, with a gentle offshore from the south-southwest. The combined energy is strong (1162). This is the best window of the first batch: clean, solid, and with that longer period, the waves will have shape. It’s a point break, so it should handle the southerly angle well. On the downside, it’s often crowded, so expect company.

Saturday 15th is a step down: the swell drops, and the wind gets strong by afternoon, turning it messy. Sunday 16th and Monday 17th are small and not worth a paddle.

Now, we’ve got a gap of a few days with nothing really going on until we get into the second week. The real standout is shaping up for Saturday 22nd August. The morning looks excellent: a 10ft south swell, period 9 seconds, with a light offshore from the south-southwest. The combined energy is massive – 2478 – that’s very strong. The wind is light, clean, and offshore. This is a big, powerful swell for experienced surfers. The point break should handle the size, but with that short period, it might be a bit straight. Still, the conditions are perfect. The afternoon sees a drop in size to 8ft, with a cross-shore breeze, so the morning is the pick.

For a beginner, the only time to dip a toe in is the small, clean windows around Friday 7th and Tuesday 11th mornings, but it’s ordinary. The big stuff from Thursday 13th onwards is for experts only.

So, the best on offer is clearly Friday 14th August for a solid, clean groundswell day, and the absolute standout is Saturday 22nd August morning for big, powerful, clean surf. The long-range call is promising but less certain.

Rusty.

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