Mancora Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

We’ve got a bit of a slow start right now, and to be honest, the first real surf worth paddling out for doesn’t show up until next week. For the first few days, the waves are around but the wind's messy and the quality is low. It’s not until Sunday, July 19th, that things start looking up, and even then it’s just a morning window.

The standout for the whole 16 days is a Sunday morning glass-off. On July 19th, we’ve got a glassy morning at Mancora, and that’s the pick of the forecast. The swell is small—3 ft from the SSW with a 12-second period, which is a nice long-period groundswell for a point break like this. The combined energy is moderate (289), and with the wind going flat calm, the wave faces will be clean. Crowds are sometimes a thing here, so you might have a few others out, but for a Sunday morning with that kind of light, it’s worth the early alarm.

The rest of the run is pretty average. Afternoons are consistently blown out with cross-onshore winds, especially from the 21st onward when the swell tries to push a bit bigger. By July 21st, Tuesday afternoon, the swell jumps to 6 ft from the SW, but the wind is a fresh 30 km/h cross-shore, making it lumpy and hard to manage. That’s more of a kite day than a paddle day.

Later in the month, towards July 24th and 25th, we see some very long-period swells (19 to 21 seconds) coming from the SW, but the size drops back to 2 ft to 2 ft. Combined energy is moderate to strong (455 to 530), but the period is so long at a beach and point setup like Mancora that the waves might break a bit straight or be hard to link up. Still, with offshore winds (WNW to W) on the mornings of the 24th and 25th, and light breezes, those could be surprisingly clean little sessions for the patient surfer.

The water temp is a big story here. It’s sitting at 75°F, which is a whopping 4°F warmer than normal for this time of year. That’s very unusual, so you’ll be in boardies for sure.

So, bottom line: the first real chance is on July 19th, Sunday morning—go then. The 24th and 25th mornings are also worth a look for the clean conditions, even if the swell is small. For the rest, it’s mostly blown-out afternoons or marginal waves. Keep an eye on the forecasts, though—it tends not to stay poor for long here.

Rusty.

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