Lake Ferry Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty.

Well, the next couple of weeks are a mixed bag, to be honest. Right off the bat, we’ve got a serious pulse of southwest swell pushing in, but it’s way too much of a good thing for our setup. We’re looking at a few days where you just have to leave the board in the car. The real windows of opportunity are a bit further out, so you’ll need to pick your moments and be patient.

The first call is for Wednesday the 19th, but it’s a write-off. We’re seeing a strong 13ft southwest swell with a long 14-second period, and the combined energy is a hefty 6331. The wind is a cross-on 12 mph, making it choppy. It’s simply too big and messy for Lake Ferry. By the afternoon, it eases slightly to 12ft but the wind goes onshore. The water is sitting at 52°, which is a bit colder than average for this time of year. It’s a full pass. The swell energy in the morning is 6331, which is strong to very strong, but it’s just not usable for us.

Thursday the 20th is a big step down. The morning has a 6ft south swell, but the conditions are marginal. The afternoon is where it gets interesting—the wind drops to a glassy 3 mph from the southwest, and we have a clean 5ft south swell with an 11-second period and moderate energy (771). It’s not huge, but it’s clean and surfable. This is probably the best bet for the first few days, just a fun, clean wave on a sandbar that’s fairly consistent.

Then, Friday the 21st is the one to circle. The morning brings an excellent 5ft south swell with a very long 16-second period from the south, and a light offshore north wind at 6 mph. The combined energy is a solid 1110, and the conditions are clean. This is your standout for the first week. The long period means it will have real push and shape, and that offshore breeze will keep it glassy. It’s an advanced spot, and with a long-period swell like this, it’s worth noting it might be a bit too straight at the sandbar, but for those who know the break, it’ll be worth it. The crowd profile is “sometimes,” so you might get a few out, but it won’t be chaos.

After that, the weekend falls apart. Saturday the 22nd sees strong cross-offshore winds up to 25 mph, dropping the swell to under 3ft. The energy drops to 206. It’s a full day of poor surf. Sunday the 23rd is even smaller and just as windy. Forget it. This blank run lasts for a few days, from Saturday through the middle of next week.

Monday the 24th sees a bit of a pulse back up to 5ft with a 15-second period from the southwest, but the wind is a moderate cross-offshore northwesterly. The energy is a moderate 874, but the conditions are marginal. Tuesday the 25th is blown out again. From the 26th to the 28th, it’s a mix of small, poor waves and onshore winds.

We get another small window on Friday the 28th in the afternoon. It’s not big, 3ft south swell with a 12-second period, but we have a moderate offshore north wind at 16 mph, making for clean conditions. The energy is 317, so it’s not weak, but it’s not powerful either. It’s a "good surf conditions" call, but it’s not a standout. It’s just something to wet the whistle.

Then there’s another lull from the 29th through the 31st, with poor, onshore conditions and tiny waves. The 1st and 2nd of September also look poor, with cross-onshore winds and choppy conditions, though the energy does pick up on the 2nd (1143 on the afternoon).

But hold on—the real standout of this whole forecast is Thursday, September 3rd. That’s the one to plan around. The morning is looking excellent. We’ve got a 6ft southwest swell with a solid 14-second period, combined energy of 1291, and a light 6 mph cross-offshore north wind. It’s a clean, powerful, proper swell. The direction is right, the energy is strong, and the wind will have it glassy. This is the one that has the hallmarks of a great day at Lake Ferry. The afternoon holds the size (6ft) but the wind swings cross-shore, which will put a bit of texture on it. Still, that morning window looks like the pick of the entire 16 days. It’s a long way out, so treat it as promising but not locked in. But if it holds, you’ll want to be out there.

Alright, that’s the picture from here. Remember, the reliable calls are this week; the stuff next week is just a promise. Get on Friday the 21st and keep an eye on the 3rd.

Rusty.

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