Surf Forecasts:
Lake Ferry surf forecast from 15 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Friday 17 Jul, 12PM (local time) - 5.5ft (1.7m), 14s period, SSW swell with offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 18 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 6ft (1.9m), 22s period, SSW swell with 3,403 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Thursday 16 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 1ft (0.3m), 17s period with ESE swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Lake Ferry this week:
The surf forecast for Lake Ferry over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Thursday (Jul 16) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.3m and 17s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 4s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Lake Ferry in the next 16 days are 1.9m 22s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 18) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.8m 6s period and expected on Thursday (Jul 16) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Thu 16th Jul) | 1ft (0.3m) 17s |
| Best Surf | 12PM (Fri 17th Jul) | 5.5ft (1.7m) 14s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Sat 18th Jul) | 6ft (1.9m) 22s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Lake Ferry over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Righto, let’s have a look at what’s coming up for Lake Ferry. There’s a bit of a flat spell to kick things off, but don’t write it off just yet – the second half of the week and the weekend are looking pretty tasty, especially for anyone who’s happy to sit out the small stuff.
The first few days are a write-off, honestly. Wednesday and Thursday the 15th and 16th of July are tiny, with some poor surf conditions and a bit of wind messing things up. The combined swell energy is weak (30 to 68), so you’re better off doing something else. No point paddling out for that.
Friday the 17th is where it starts to get interesting. The morning brings a clean 5ft SSW swell with a period of 10 seconds and light offshore winds from the NNE. The combined energy jumps to 784 (moderate), and it’s looking good. But the real standout is Friday afternoon – glassy conditions, no wind, and a 5ft SSW groundswell with a 14-second period. That’s proper, long-period energy (1200 combined energy). The waves will have some punch and shape, but at 5ft, it’s better for experienced surfers. The water temp is sitting at 51°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want a good wetsuit.
Saturday the 18th stays solid but not as clean. Morning is clean with 4ft SSW swell and offshore winds, but the afternoon gets a bit crossed up with a 4ft swell and a very long 23-second period (2188 combined energy). That long period can make beach breaks sectiony, but on a sandbar setup like Lake Ferry, it might offer some lined-up runners. Sunday the 19th is a gem – both morning and afternoon are glassy, with 6ft and 6ft SSW swells, long periods (17 and 16 seconds), and combined energy in the 1400-1900 range. These are excellent for experienced surfers, clean and punchy. Monday the 20th follows suit with a 6ft to 7ft SSW swell, offshore and glassy, and energy around 1500-1700. This stretch from Friday afternoon through Monday is the best on offer – no question.
After that, things taper off. Tuesday the 21st is still good (5ft morning, clean), but by Wednesday the 22nd it’s dropping back to 4ft, and from Thursday the 23rd onwards it gets small and ordinary again. There’s a gap from around Thursday the 23rd afternoon through to the end of the month where the surf is mostly poor or marginal, with the odd tiny glassy moment (like Saturday the 25th afternoon, 1ft – not worth it). The 16-day window finishes with a bit of a dud, though Wednesday the 30th has a clean 2ft SSW swell with a 14-second period, so maybe a sneaky small-wave session.
Overall, the standout is the window from Friday afternoon the 17th through Monday the 20th of July. That’s your best bet for quality, size, and clean conditions. Get out there if you can.
Rusty
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 15°C on Wed afternoon, min 6°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Wed night, calm by Fri afternoon). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Sat afternoon, min 5°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | ||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | ESE 17 | ESE 16 | SSW 10 | SSW 14 | SSW 12 | SSW 10 | SSW 23 | SSW 20 | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 12 | S 12 |
Wave Graph  | |||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 26 | 48 | 44 | 45 | 28 | 103 | 418 | 1031 | 444 | 265 | 1546 | 2737 | 1821 | 1375 | 1292 | 1247 | 1505 | 943 | 750 | 528 | 418 |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | off | off | glassy | off | off | cross | cross-on | glassy | glassy | glassy | off | glassy | off | off | cross-off | off |
High Tide | 5:22PM1.50m | 5:47AM1.30m | 6:20PM1.48m | 6:46AM1.30m | 7:17PM1.45m | 7:44AM1.28m | 8:14PM1.40m | 8:42AM1.27m | 9:10PM1.34m | 9:39AM1.25m | 10:05PM1.28m | 10:34AM1.23m | 10:57PM1.22m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 11:02AM-0.04m | 11:48PM-0.01m | 12:01PM-0.05m | 00:47AM-0.01m | 1:01PM-0.04m | 1:44AM-0.01m | 2:00PM-0.02m | 2:39AM0.01m | 2:57PM0.02m | 3:32AM0.04m | 3:54PM0.07m | 4:24AM0.07m | 4:48PM0.12m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  | |  | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
 | 7:41 | — | — | 7:41 | — | — | 7:39 | — | — | 7:39 | — | — | 7:39 | — | — | 7:37 | — | — | 7:37 | — | — |
 | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:13 | — |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 7 |
Feels °C | 10 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 16 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | WNW 4 | S 7 | SSW 10 | SSW 14 | SSW 12 | SSW 10 | SSW 23 | SSW 20 | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 12 | S 12 |
| kJ | 26 | 48 | 44 | 45 | 13 | 52 | 418 | 1031 | 444 | 265 | 1546 | 2737 | 1821 | 1375 | 1292 | 1247 | 1505 | 943 | 750 | 528 | 418 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | E 12 | E 12 | E 13 | ESE 15 | SSW 15 | ESE 16 | SSW 14 | ESE 16 | ESE 15 | ESE 15 | SSW 14 | ESE 14 | SE 13 | ESE 13 | S 19 | SSW 18 | ESE 12 | SSW 17 | S 17 | SSW 16 | S 15 |
| kJ | 3 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 21 | 103 | 220 | 169 | 152 | 142 | 508 | 123 | 85 | 66 | 455 | 432 | 14 | 499 | 283 | 350 | 121 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 8 | S 20 | ESE 14 | — | ESE 17 | SSW 14 | ESE 16 | — | — | SSW 24 | ESE 14 | S 22 | — | — | SE 12 | SE 12 | — | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | SE 11 |
| kJ | 1 | 8 | 36 | — | 28 | 41 | 146 | — | — | 57 | 134 | 1176 | — | — | 38 | 37 | — | 13 | 12 | 12 | 5 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 5 | NW 5 | NW 5 | NW 6 | — | — | — | — | — | NW 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | NNW 4 | NW 4 |
| kJ | 66 | 80 | 89 | 224 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8 | 26 |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 27 | 82 | 82 | 94 | 42 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 25 | 112 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
Best forecast wave conditions in The Wairarapa | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Lake Ferry Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Lake Ferry provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Lake Ferry can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Lake Ferry surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Lake Ferry) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Lake Ferry may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Lake Ferry is 28 km (17 miles) from Lower Hutt. If you plan a holiday in The Wairarapa, look for hotels and other accommodation in Lower Hutt. Lower Hutt has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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