Lake Ferry Surf Break

Lat Long: 41.40° S 175.15° E

Lake Ferry Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Issued: 11 am 23 Jul 2026 (local time)

Forecast update in  hr  min

Today's Lake Ferry sea temperature is
11.0° C
1.3° 

Lake Ferry surf forecast is for near shore open water. Breaking waves will often be smaller at less exposed spots.


Lake Ferry surf forecast from 23 Jul 2026:

  • Best quality surf: Saturday 25 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, SSW swell with onshore winds.
  • Most powerful swell: Saturday 25 Jul, 3PM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 8s period, SSW swell with 1,909 kJ wave energy.
  • Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 25 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period with SSW swell.

Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Lake Ferry this week:

The surf forecast for Lake Ferry over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 25) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 3.0m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 16s. Another secondary swell of 0.3m and 16s is also forecast. The wind is predicted to be onshore as the swell arrives.

The most powerful waves expected at Lake Ferry in the next 16 days are 4.0m 8s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 25) at 3PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.1m 6s period and expected on Friday (Jul 24) at 12AM.

Wave TypeTime (NZST) & Date Wave Height & Period
Next good surf (1 star+) 9PM (Sat 25th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 8s
Best Surf 9PM (Sat 25th Jul)10ft (3.0m) 8s
Most Powerful 3PM (Sat 25th Jul)13ft (4.0m) 8s

Table - best surf conditions forecast for Lake Ferry over the next 16 days.


The Lowdown

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what Lake Ferry has lined up for us.

To be straight with you, the outlook is a bit of a mixed bag over the next couple of weeks. The first week or so is largely going to be a write-off, but the back half of the period shows some real potential, especially if you can wait it out. We’ve got a big swell coming, but you need to pick your moment.

We’ll start off on Thursday, July 23rd. The morning is surfable but very ordinary, with a tiny 2ft SSW swell and a period of 12 seconds. The combined energy is weak, sitting at 96. The wind is offshore from the NNE at 9 mph, so it’s clean, but the swell is just too small to get excited about. The water temperature is 52°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year. The afternoon turns into a no-go with strong cross-offshore winds. Friday, July 24th, is a complete bust – tiny windswell and strong winds.

Saturday, July 25th, is where things get wild, but not in a good way. A big onshore swell hits, reaching 13ft in the afternoon with a short, weak 8-second period. The combined energy jumps to 1939 (moderate to strong), but with onshore winds at 22 mph, that’s a straight-up mess. This is a beach setup, so for kite surfers, it might be interesting, but for paddle surfing? Forget it.

There’s a glimmer of hope on Sunday, July 26th. The morning shows a 5ft S swell with light onshore winds, but the surf is marginal. Don't get your hopes up.

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. A standout window opens up on Tuesday, July 28th. We have a clean 2ft ESE groundswell with a period of 14 seconds in the morning, shifting glassy in the afternoon at 2ft. The wind is offshore or glassy – that’s a major positive for clean waves. Combined energy is 312 (moderate). This is a great call for a longboard or a fun board. Wednesday, July 29th, carries on the good run, with clean 2ft ESE and SSW swells in the morning and afternoon. The wind stays offshore and light. This is the best quality stretch in the first week, but the swell is small.

Then we hit another rough patch from July 30th through July 31st with strong winds and poor conditions.

Hold on, because August 1st (Saturday) is the big standout, but with a massive caveat. The morning shows a 10ft SSW swell and the afternoon ramps up to a 16ft SSW swell. The combined energy is huge – 1142 in the morning, and a whopping 4661 in the afternoon. This is a very long period groundswell (10 seconds) so it will have serious power, but at this size (over 8ft), it’s strictly for experts only. The wind is light offshore, so it should be clean. However, the big S swell direction is not the optimum for this break, and given the size, it could be too dangerous for most. Only the most experienced locals should even think about it.

The following week starts rough on August 2nd with a big, onshore mess. But Monday, August 3rd, shows a nice return to form with a clean 4ft SSW swell. The rest of the forecast after that is mostly onshore and marginal again, with a huge, dangerous swell predicted for August 5th (16ft) that is all onshore – another one for the kite crew, not us.

So, to sum it up: The best bet for a clean, manageable wave is Tuesday, July 28th and Wednesday, July 29th at Lake Ferry. The waves will be small, but clean and fun. The big dog is Saturday, August 1st, but that’s a ledge-only, expert session if ever there was one. The long range stuff after that is too uncertain to call.

Stay safe out there.

Rusty.

Short Range Forecast

Moderate rain (total 16mm), heaviest on Sat morning. Very mild (max 13°C on Thu morning, min 6°C on Sat night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the SSW on Sat morning, light winds from the SSW by Sat night).

Days 4-6 Weather Summary

Mostly dry. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue afternoon, min 5°C on Sun afternoon). Wind will be generally light.

Thursday
23
Friday
24
Saturday
25
Sunday
26
Monday
27
Tuesday
28
Wednesday
29
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
AM
PM
Night
Rating
(10 max)
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
0
Swell
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Height Map
Wave
Height (m)
Direction
Period (s)
0.5
SSW
12
0.4
SSW
12
0.3
SSW
9
0.2
S
9
0.2
SSW
8
0.2
SSW
14
1.6
SSW
5
4
SSW
8
2.4
SSW
8
1.6
S
8
1.3
S
8
0.7
SSE
8
0.7
SSE
8
0.9
S
7
0.6
SSW
12
0.6
SE
12
0.6
ESE
13
0.6
ESE
13
0.7
ESE
13
0.7
SSW
14
0.5
SSW
14
Wave Graph
Metric surfscale
Energy kJ
81
56
15
7
6
19
113
1909
762
334
208
67
60
88
115
111
135
139
154
178
105
Wind (km/h)
15
NNE
30
NNW
35
NW
30
NNW
30
NNW
30
NW
40
SSW
35
SW
15
SSW
5
SSW
10
SW
10
WSW
10
SW
10
SW
5
NNW
5
N
5
WNW
10
NNE
10
NNE
10
NNE
20
NNW
Wind State
off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
cross-off
on
on
on
on
on
cross-on
cross-on
on
glassy
off
glassy
off
off
off
cross-off
High Tide
12:16PM1.21m
00:35AM1.14m
1:02PM1.20m
1:21AM1.11m
1:47PM1.20m
2:05AM1.10m
2:30PM1.21m
2:49AM1.09m
3:14PM1.21m
3:33AM1.09m
3:58PM1.22m
4:17AM1.08m
4:43PM1.22m
Low Tide
6:30PM0.21m
6:45AM0.20m
7:18PM0.24m
7:28AM0.22m
8:04PM0.25m
8:11AM0.24m
8:49PM0.26m
8:55AM0.24m
9:34PM0.26m
9:39AM0.23m
10:20PM0.26m
10:24AM0.22m
11:06PM0.25m
part cloud
cloud
cloud
light rain
rain showers
part cloud
mod rain
light rain
part cloud
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
clear
clear
clear
clear
clear
part cloud
part cloud
part cloud
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunrise">Sunrise</span>
7:35
7:35
7:33
7:33
7:31
7:31
7:31
<span class="translation_missing" title="translation missing: en.weather_tables.sunset">Sunset</span>
5:15
5:15
5:16
5:17
5:19
5:20
5:21
 mm
1
4
8
3
Temp °C
13
13
12
12
13
12
7
7
7
8
8
5
9
9
5
11
12
6
10
12
12
Feels °C
8
7
6
6
8
7
-1
-1
2
5
4
1
6
6
3
9
10
3
7
9
8
  • Map Icons:
  • Break
  • Live Wave Height (m)
  • Live Wind Speed (km/h)
  • Surf Rating (10 Max)
  • Ocean Swells (m)
  • Wind Speed (km/h)
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Information about the Lake Ferry Surf forecast

The above surf forecast table for Lake Ferry provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Lake Ferry can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Lake Ferry surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Lake Ferry) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).

Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Lake Ferry may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.

Lake Ferry is 28 km (17 miles) from Lower Hutt. If you plan a holiday in The Wairarapa, look for hotels and other accommodation in Lower Hutt. Lower Hutt has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.

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