Lake Ferry Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve had a proper look at what’s on the cards for Lake Ferry over the next couple of weeks. Honestly, it’s a pretty lean run for the most part, but there are a couple of moments that’ll get the blood pumping.

The Big Picture: We’re looking at a long stretch of small, messy, or just plain unsurfable conditions, punctuated by one massive, wild weekend that’s only for the brave. The water is sitting at 52°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want the thickest rubber you’ve got.

This Weekend (Saturday 11th & Sunday 12th):
Saturday morning starts off with some clouds and a tiny 1 ft SSW swell pushing in from the south. It’s a long-period groundswell (18 seconds), so there’s energy, but with a light S breeze putting a cross-on kink in it, it’s a bit of a scratchy affair. The combined energy is 308 – moderate. By the afternoon, the swell bumps up to 3 ft (SSW, still 17 seconds), but the wind is still cross-on. It’s rideable, but nothing to write home about.

Now, Sunday is where it gets interesting. The morning is clear, and the wind swings around to a light NNE breeze – that’s offshore for Lake Ferry (the optimum is S). We’ve got a clean 3 ft of SSW swell, period dropping to 12 seconds. The combined energy is 343 (moderate). The “expect good surf conditions” tag is rare, and with the offshore wind, it’ll be smooth. This is the pick of the first week. The afternoon holds the same 3 ft swell with an even lighter offshore breeze (3 mph). It’s glassy, clean, and the best you’ll get for a while.

Midweek (Monday 13th to Friday 17th):
Monday morning is clean but tiny – 1 ft with a light offshore. The energy drops to 109. It’s surfable, but very ordinary. From Monday afternoon right through to Friday, the wind picks up from the NNW, hitting 15-19 mph, and the swell shrinks to 0.7 ft to 2 ft. The combined energy plummets to between 16 and 178. It’s a write-off. Thursday morning is the only glimmer – a glassy 1.0 ft swell (15 seconds, 81 energy) – but it’s still just a flat, glassy pond.

The Big One – Saturday 18th & Sunday 19th:
Hold onto your board. Saturday morning, the swell jumps to a massive 10 ft from the SSW, period dropping to 8 seconds. The combined energy is a whopping 1430 – strong. The wind is glassy from the NE (3 mph), but the forecast says it’s too big for the break. 10 ft at a sandbar with short-period energy is going to be a washing machine. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s a maybe. Saturday afternoon goes absolutely mental: 18 ft from the SSW (11 seconds), with a combined energy of 7388 – very strong. The wind is light cross-on. This is a solid no-go for paddle surfing. If you’ve got a kite, this setup looks way more interesting.

Sunday the 19th brings a 13 ft S swell (14 seconds, 5812 energy) in the morning, dropping to 10 ft (14 seconds, 3599 energy) in the afternoon. The wind is light and cross-off, so the surface will be clean, but these waves are still only for the most experienced, and even then, it’s a serious call. The long period (14 seconds) means it’ll be a proper groundswell, but at a sandbar, it might break too straight and close out.

The Following Week (Monday 20th to Sunday 26th):
After that wild weekend, it settles back into small, ordinary surf. Monday the 20th has a 6 ft S swell (12 seconds, 1043 energy) but with cross-on winds, it’s choppy and marginal. Tuesday the 21st is similar, dropping to 4 ft. From Wednesday the 22nd onwards, it’s back to tiny 1.0 ft to 2 ft swells, with combined energy mostly under 200. The mornings may have a brief glassy or offshore window, but it’s honestly just ankle-biters. Sunday the 26th has a 2 ft ESE swell and a light offshore, but it’s nothing to get excited about.

Best Surf: If you’re paddling, your window is Sunday 12th July – clean, offshore, 3 ft SSW swell. It’s the only true standout. For the big-wave experts, Saturday 18th and Sunday 19th will be a spectacle, but it’s a serious, serious mission.

Rusty.

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