Lake Ferry Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Straight up, this is a forecast with a split personality. We’ve got a solid pulse of groundswell coming through early in the week, but the wind is going to be the real story – it’s either going to make it or break it. The main event, and the only real standout, is Monday morning at Lake Ferry. That’s your window.

The first real action kicks off Sunday afternoon, but it’s a bit of a teaser. We’re looking at a 7ft SSW swell with a long 16-second period, but the wind is cross-on from the south. The water is sitting at 53°, which is about normal for this time of year. The combined energy is up there (1966), but that onshore breeze is going to mess with the shape. It’s a pass.

Now, Monday morning the 20th – this is the one. The wind goes glassy, dead calm from the east. The swell is a touch bigger at 8ft, still from the SSW, and the period stretches out to a very long 18 seconds. The energy reading is massive (3543). This is a serious groundswell. That long period means it’s going to barrel hard and fast, but at a place like Lake Ferry (a sandbar setup), it can get a bit straight and sectiony. But with glassy conditions, it’s pure, clean, and powerful. This is for experienced surfers only – the size and power will be too much for beginners.

Monday afternoon keeps the big energy (5316) with a 10ft SSW swell, but the wind swings cross-on from the SSE. That’s a lot of juice with a messy top. It’s a hell of a sight, but not the cleanest ride.

Tuesday morning the 21st cleans up nicely. The wind goes offshore from the NNE, light at 6 mph. The swell drops to a still-chunky 7ft from the SSW with a 14-second period. The energy is still solid (1474). This is a good, clean option for the experienced crew, but it’s a step down from Monday’s glassy perfection.

Tuesday afternoon sees the swell easing to 6ft, and the wind goes cross-off from the north. It’s clean, but the energy is dropping (1070). Still a fun session, but not the standout.

After that, the swell fades fast. We get a small, clean morning on Wednesday the 22nd with a 4ft S swell and glassy conditions, but it’s weak (346). Then it just goes flat and windy. From Thursday afternoon the 23rd all the way through to Saturday the 26th, it’s a write-off. Strong winds, rain, and tiny, messy swell. That’s a solid three-day dry spell.

We get a little pulse back on Sunday the 26th morning with a 4ft SSW swell and clean cross-off wind, but it’s nothing special. Then it gets messy again.

The second week is a bit of a gamble. Monday the 27th has a 8ft SSW swell, but the wind is a strong cross-shore, making it choppy. Then Tuesday the 28th is a no-go – 13ft of swell but with howling onshore winds. That’s a washing machine, not a surf break. Wednesday the 29th morning shows a 6ft S swell with light cross-shore wind, but it’s marginal. The afternoon cleans up a bit with a 5ft S swell and cross-off wind, but it’s just average.

The real long-range promise is Saturday the 1st of August. We’ve got a 6ft SSW swell with a 15-second period, but the wind is a fresh cross-off from the NW at 22 mph. That’s a lot of wind. The energy is there (1355), but it’s going to be a bumpy, challenging ride. It’s a promising-looking swell, but the wind is a major question mark. A bit of a gamble that far out.

So, to sum it up: if you’re an experienced surfer, Monday morning the 20th is your absolute best bet. Completely glassy, big, powerful groundswell. Get on it. After that, we’re picking through scraps until the first week of August, which looks promising but uncertain.

Stay safe out there.

- Rusty

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