Surf Forecasts:
Lake Ferry surf forecast from 28 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 31 Aug, 6AM (local time) - 11ft (3.5m), 8s period, SSW swell with cross-onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 1 Sep, 12PM (local time) - 16ft (5.0m), 13s period, SSW swell with 8,606 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 29 Aug, 6PM (local time) - 2.5ft (0.7m), 11s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Lake Ferry this week:
The surf forecast for Lake Ferry over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Aug 29) at 6PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.7m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.3m and 10s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Lake Ferry in the next 16 days are 5.0m 13s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 12PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.4m 7s period and expected on Tuesday (Sep 01) at 12AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6PM (Sat 29th Aug) | 2.5ft (0.7m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 6AM (Mon 31st Aug) | 11ft (3.5m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 12PM (Tue 1st Sep) | 16ft (5.0m) 13s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Lake Ferry over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, let’s get into it. I’m Rusty, and I’m looking at what we’ve got on the cards for Lake Ferry.
Honestly, the next week and a half is a bit of a mixed bag, and for a while there it’s looking pretty grim. The first proper surf worth talking about doesn’t show up until Monday the 31st of August, and even then it’s a tricky one. Before that, from Friday the 28th through Sunday the 30th, the swell is small—under about 3 feet mostly—and the winds are cross-off, which keeps the surface clean but the wave quality is rated as ordinary to poor. The combined wave energy is weak to low moderate. Not worth your time unless you’re desperate for a paddle.
Now, Monday the 31st of August is where things get interesting. The swell jumps up to about 12 feet from the SSW with a period of 10 seconds, and the energy is huge—5021 (very strong). The wind is glassy in the morning, which is a massive positive. But here’s the rub: that 12 feet is a lot of water for a sandbar setup. It’s going to be too big for beginners, and even for experienced surfers this is going to be a handful. The swell direction (SSW) isn’t the optimum (S), but with that much energy and glassy conditions, it might still produce some heavy, powerful waves. The period (10s) is moderate, so it won’t be a long-period groundswell, just raw power. Crowds are sometimes an issue here, so you might have some company if the conditions are clean.
After that, it goes south again. Tuesday the 1st of September sees the swell hitting about 16 feet from the SSW with onshore winds. That’s a recipe for a washing machine—way too big, blown out, and dangerous. The energy readings are off the charts, but the wind is directly onshore. That is not surfable for anyone.
The following days are mostly poor, with a lot of cross-off winds but small, weak swell. The energy drops back into the hundreds. There’s a small window on Wednesday the 3rd of September with about 5 feet from the S, but again the wind is fresh and cross-off so it’s marginal, not a standout.
Looking further out, Thursday the 11th of September has a monster swell of about 20 feet from the SSW predicted, but with rain and cross-onshore winds. Again, too big for this break and messy.
Honestly, the only real standout in this whole outlook is the Monday 31st August morning at Lake Ferry (sandbar). That 12 feet SSW swell with glassy wind is a proper heavy-water session for the experienced crew. It’s dangerous, but for those who can handle it, it could be a wild, memorable ride. Everything else is either too small, too windy, or too big. Be patient, or save your energy for another week.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Sun night. Very mild (max 15°C on Sun morning, min 7°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NNW on Fri afternoon, calm by Sun night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 7mm), mostly falling on Mon night. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu morning, min 3°C on Tue night). Winds decreasing (strong winds from the NW on Mon night, calm by Tue night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Fri 28 | Saturday 29 | Sunday 30 | Monday 31 | Tuesday 1 | Wednesday 2 | Thursday 3 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | SSW 10 | SSW 13 | SSW 16 | SSW 10 | SSW 11 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | S 12 | S 12 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 |
Wave Graph | ||||||||||||||||||||
350 | 199 | 196 | 143 | 74 | 86 | 183 | 487 | 2733 | 1720 | 1401 | 7839 | 6678 | 2665 | 1810 | 1735 | 1065 | 546 | 313 | 181 | |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | glassy | cross-off | cross-off | on | on | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off |
High Tide | 4:53PM1.20m | 5:12AM1.10m | 5:39PM1.20m | 6:00AM1.11m | 6:26PM1.19m | 6:49AM1.14m | 7:15PM1.19m | 7:39AM1.18m | 8:05PM1.19m | 8:31AM1.22m | 8:57PM1.20m | 9:23AM1.26m | 9:50PM1.20m | |||||||
Low Tide | 11:13PM0.22m | 11:23AM0.18m | 00:00AM0.20m | 12:14PM0.17m | 00:47AM0.19m | 1:05PM0.16m | 1:35AM0.17m | 1:58PM0.15m | 2:23AM0.16m | 2:51PM0.14m | 3:12AM0.14m | 3:45PM0.12m | ||||||||
— | — | 6:50 | — | — | 6:48 | — | — | 6:46 | — | — | 6:45 | — | — | 6:43 | — | — | 6:41 | — | — | |
5:50 | — | — | 5:51 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:52 | — | — | 5:53 | — | — | 5:54 | — | — | 5:55 | — | |
mm | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | — | — | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 14 |
Feels °C | 8 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 | S 11 | S 10 | SSW 10 | SSW 13 | SSW 16 | SSW 10 | SSW 11 | SSW 13 | — | — | SSW 12 | S 12 | S 12 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 | S 11 |
350 | 199 | 196 | 143 | 74 | 86 | 183 | 487 | 2279 | 1720 | 1401 | — | — | 2665 | 1810 | 1735 | 1065 | 546 | 313 | 181 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 15 | SSW 12 | S 16 | SSW 11 | SSW 10 | SSE 10 | SSE 9 | SE 12 | E 11 | E 11 | — | — | — | — | S 16 | SE 13 | SE 12 | SE 12 | E 10 | SSE 12 |
8 | 14 | 20 | 24 | 20 | 32 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 2 | — | — | — | — | 412 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 15 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 15 | ENE 8 | SE 13 | SSW 14 | SSW 13 | SE 12 | SE 12 | ESE 12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | SSW 15 |
8 | 12 | 7 | 41 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 6 | NW 6 | NW 5 | NW 5 | NW 4 | NNW 3 | NW 5 | WNW 6 | SSW 10 | NW 4 | NW 7 | SSW 13 | SSW 12 | — | NNW 4 | NW 6 | NW 6 | NW 6 | NW 6 | NW 6 |
178 | 266 | 80 | 43 | 14 | 7 | 110 | 309 | 2733 | 46 | 476 | 7839 | 6678 | — | 38 | 172 | 191 | 119 | 145 | 223 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 130 | 91 | 9 | 30 | 9 | 9 | 91 | 9 | 9 | 84 | 94 | 454 | 189 | 9 | 9 | 31 | 91 | 91 | 91 | 82 |
Best forecast wave conditions in The Wairarapa | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Lake Ferry Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Lake Ferry provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Lake Ferry can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Lake Ferry surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Lake Ferry) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Lake Ferry may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Lake Ferry is 28 km (17 miles) from Lower Hutt. If you plan a holiday in The Wairarapa, look for hotels and other accommodation in Lower Hutt. Lower Hutt has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











