
Surf Forecasts:
Lake Ferry surf forecast from 16 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 18 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 7ft (2.2m), 21s period, SSW swell with cross-offshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 20 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 8ft (2.5m), 18s period, S swell with 4,737 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 17 Jul, 6AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.1m), 8s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Lake Ferry this week:
The surf forecast for Lake Ferry over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Jul 17) at 6AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.1m and 8s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 16s. The wind is predicted to be offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Lake Ferry in the next 16 days are 2.5m 18s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Jul 20) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-offshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 5s period and expected on Friday (Jul 24) at 6AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 6AM (Fri 17th Jul) | 3.5ft (1.1m) 8s |
| Best Surf | 6PM (Sat 18th Jul) | 7ft (2.2m) 21s |
| Most Powerful | 9PM (Mon 20th Jul) | 8ft (2.5m) 18s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Lake Ferry over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here. Let’s break down what’s on the menu.
First up, Lake Ferry – a sandbar spot that’s exposed and needs a good S swell. It’s advanced-only and fairly consistent. Water temp is about average for the time of year, nothing special.
The best window opens Friday morning, July 17th, with a clean 5ft SSW swell. Light offshore wind from the NE, and the wave energy is pumping at 1082 (moderate-strong). That’s a solid start for experienced surfers, and the morning glass is a beauty. The afternoon stays glassy with a 5ft SSW swell, period stretching to 15 seconds – a long-period groundswell that’ll have some shape, though it might be a bit straight for the sandbar.
Saturday morning, July 18th, is glassy with a 3ft SSW swell, 11-second period, and energy at 532 (moderate). Good for a cruisy session. But Saturday afternoon? That’s a kicker: 7ft SSW swell with a 22-second period and energy at 4197 (strong). The wind is cross, so not perfect, but for experts, that’s a lot of water on the move.
Sunday, July 19th, is a standout. Morning and afternoon both glassy, with 6ft SSW swell, period 16-17 seconds, and energy over 1700 (strong). The wind is light and variable, so the surface will be clean. That’s the kind of day you tell your mates about. Monday morning, July 20th, is also glassy with 6ft SSW swell, 14 seconds, energy at 1377 (moderate-strong) – another solid call.
Tuesday, July 21st, brings a 7ft SSW swell in the morning with offshore NE wind at 10 km/h, clean and strong at 1960 energy. The afternoon holds 6ft with cross-offshore wind, still clean. Wednesday, July 22nd, drops off – 4ft S swell, glassy, but only 346 energy (weak-moderate). Not a bust, but not the pump.
Now, there’s a gap from Wednesday afternoon, July 22nd, through to the end of the month. The swell dies, wind picks up, and conditions go south. A few days of tiny, weak waves and onshore gunk. Kite surfers might dig the windier days, but for paddle surfing, it’s a quiet spell.
Then, Sunday, July 26th, a new pulse shows: 7ft SE swell, but period is a short 7 seconds, and energy is 732 (moderate). The wind is glassy in the morning, so it’s rideable, but that short period means it’ll be a bit lumpy. Sunday afternoon the swell jumps to 10ft from the SSE, period 9 seconds – that’s too big for this break, only for the brave.
Monday, July 27th, is a write-off with strong onshore wind and rain. The rest of the week is mostly small or blown out, until the very end. On August 1st, Saturday morning, there’s an 12ft SSW swell forecast, but it’s too big for Lake Ferry. Experts only, and even then, risky.
Best of the bunch: Sunday, July 19th, and Monday, July 20th, are your top picks. Clean, glassy mornings, solid SSW swell, and enough energy to get you stoked. Friday, July 17th, is a close runner-up for the early session.
There’s a long dry spell after the 22nd, so make the most of this weekend and early next week.
Rusty out.
Short Range ForecastMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri afternoon, min 7°C on Thu night). Wind will be generally light. | Days 5-7 Weather SummarySome drizzle, heaviest during Mon night. Very mild (max 12°C on Tue afternoon, min 8°C on Sun night). Wind will be generally light. | ||||||||||||||||||
Friday 17 | Saturday 18 | Sunday 19 | Monday 20 | Tuesday 21 | Wednesday 22 | ||||||||||||||
Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 16 | SSW 14 | SSW 15 | SSW 12 | SSW 11 | SSW 22 | SSW 19 | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | S 19 | S 17 | SSW 15 | SSW 13 | SSW 12 | S 12 | S 11 | SSW 12 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||
103 | 731 | 773 | 467 | 259 | 4063 | 3217 | 1945 | 1665 | 1499 | 1004 | 1876 | 3859 | 1948 | 1197 | 618 | 341 | 251 | 121 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | off | off | glassy | off | glassy | cross | off | glassy | glassy | off | glassy | on | cross-off | off | cross-off | cross-off | glassy | on | off |
High Tide | 6:46AM1.30m | 7:17PM1.45m | 7:44AM1.28m | 8:14PM1.40m | 8:42AM1.27m | 9:10PM1.34m | 9:39AM1.25m | 10:05PM1.28m | 10:34AM1.23m | 10:57PM1.22m | 11:27AM1.22m | 11:48PM1.17m | |||||||
Low Tide | 00:47AM-0.01m | 1:01PM-0.04m | 1:44AM-0.01m | 2:00PM-0.02m | 2:39AM0.01m | 2:57PM0.02m | 3:32AM0.04m | 3:54PM0.07m | 4:24AM0.07m | 4:48PM0.12m | 5:13AM0.12m | 5:40PM0.17m | |||||||
— | 7:39 | — | — | 7:39 | — | — | 7:39 | — | — | 7:37 | — | — | 7:37 | — | — | 7:37 | — | — | |
— | — | 5:09 | — | — | 5:10 | — | — | 5:12 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:13 | — | — | 5:14 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 8 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 7 |
Feels °C | 6 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 5 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 7 | SSW 14 | SSW 15 | SSW 12 | SSW 11 | SSW 22 | SSW 19 | SSW 17 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | S 17 | SSW 15 | SSW 13 | SSW 12 | S 12 | S 11 | SSW 12 |
79 | 731 | 773 | 467 | 259 | 4063 | 3217 | 1945 | 1665 | 1499 | 1004 | 1266 | 3859 | 1948 | 1197 | 618 | 341 | 251 | 121 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | ESE 16 | ESE 15 | ESE 15 | ESE 14 | ESE 14 | ESE 13 | ESE 13 | SE 12 | S 18 | S 19 | ESE 12 | ESE 11 | ESE 11 | SE 11 | SE 11 | ESE 11 | SSE 10 |
103 | 171 | 169 | 201 | 142 | 134 | 123 | 68 | 65 | 38 | 336 | 1876 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 31 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 14 | SSW 18 | NW 4 | — | SSW 15 | — | ESE 14 | — | — | — | SE 12 | ESE 12 | — | — | — | ENE 4 | ENE 4 | — | ESE 12 |
41 | 180 | 2 | — | 131 | — | 486 | — | — | — | 37 | 14 | — | — | — | 4 | 2 | — | 13 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | — | NNW 3 | NW 4 | — | — | — | NW 3 | — | — | — | — | S 14 | ESE 4 | — | NW 3 | NW 4 | NW 4 | SSW 3 | S 5 |
— | 1 | 4 | — | — | — | 6 | — | — | — | — | 1633 | 16 | — | 5 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 32 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 23 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 130 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 105 | 9 |
Best forecast wave conditions in The Wairarapa | |||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Lake Ferry Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Lake Ferry provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Lake Ferry can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Lake Ferry surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Lake Ferry) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Lake Ferry may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Lake Ferry is 28 km (17 miles) from Lower Hutt. If you plan a holiday in The Wairarapa, look for hotels and other accommodation in Lower Hutt. Lower Hutt has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










