Surf Forecasts:
Lake Ferry surf forecast from 16 Sep 2026:
- Best quality surf: Monday 21 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 11s period, SSW swell with onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Monday 21 Sep, 3AM (local time) - 15ft (4.5m), 11s period, SSW swell with 4,815 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Friday 18 Sep, 9AM (local time) - 3.5ft (1.0m), 6s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Lake Ferry this week:
The surf forecast for Lake Ferry over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Friday (Sep 18) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 1.0m and 6s period with a secondary swell of 0.4m and 12s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Lake Ferry in the next 16 days are 4.5m 11s and forecast to arrive on Monday (Sep 21) at 3AM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.9m 6s period and expected on Sunday (Sep 20) at 12AM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9AM (Fri 18th Sep) | 3.5ft (1.0m) 6s |
| Best Surf | 3AM (Mon 21st Sep) | 15ft (4.5m) 11s |
| Most Powerful | 3AM (Mon 21st Sep) | 15ft (4.5m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Lake Ferry over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
G’day, I’m Rusty, and I’ve been watching the Lake Ferry stretch closely. Over the next sixteen days, it’s a real tap-on, tap-off affair with long dead patches and only a few brief windows that look worth the paddle.
The first few days are a dud, with tiny swells and sloppy conditions. The first real chance comes on Friday the 18th – a 3ft S swell but only a 6-second period, so it’s weak and short. Saturday the 19th morning is better: a 4ft SSW swell with a long 15-second period and clean conditions. The combined swell energy (792) is moderate, but that long period may make it a bit straight at this sandbar.
Then it gets gnarly. A 12ft SSW swell hits Sunday the 20th with strong onshore wind – pure chaos. Monday the 21st pumps a massive 12ft SSW groundswell (energy 2667), but it’s too big for this break. Only experts should even look at it.
The real gem arrives on Friday the 25th morning. Offshore NNE wind at 6 mph, a clean 4ft S swell with a 9-second period (energy 359). Glassy, shoulder-high surf. Crowds show up “sometimes,” so you might have a few mates out, but this is your best all-round session.
Saturday the 26th morning offers a small but clean 3ft SSW swell with a 12-second period (energy 294) and light air. For the big-wave brigade, Monday the 28th morning is the one: a solid 8ft SSW swell with a 13-second period, combined energy of 2250, clean with light offshore air. That’s only for experts, and the long period will make it a bit walled at the sandbar, but the power is undeniable.
After that, it fades to small and poor. So, Friday the 25th is your go-to for a clean fun day, and Monday the 28th for the experienced only. The rest is either flat or blown out.
Rusty out.
Short Range ForecastModerate rain (total 15mm), heaviest on Thu night. Very mild (max 15°C on Thu morning, min 7°C on Fri night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Wed afternoon, calm by Fri night). | Days 5-7 Weather SummaryLight rain (total 6mm), mostly falling on Sun morning. Very mild (max 14°C on Mon afternoon, min 7°C on Sun night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Sat night, light winds from the SSW by Sun night). | |||||||||||||||||||
Wed 16 | Thursday 17 | Friday 18 | Saturday 19 | Sunday 20 | Monday 21 | Tuesday 22 | ||||||||||||||
PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map |  |  |  |  |  |  |  | |||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 11 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SW 13 | SSW 7 | S 6 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SSW 12 | SSW 8 | SSW 9 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | SSW 10 | SSW 9 | SSW 8 | S 8 | S 7 |
Wave Graph  | ||||||||||||||||||||
 kJ | 20 | 18 | 41 | 45 | 257 | 81 | 93 | 242 | 715 | 459 | 258 | 1454 | 1353 | 4757 | 2574 | 935 | 232 | 264 | 531 | 215 |
Wind (km/h) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-on | cross-off | glassy | cross-on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | on | on | on | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | on | cross-on | cross-off |
High Tide | 9:06PM1.17m | 9:30AM1.24m | 9:55PM1.14m | 10:19AM1.23m | 10:43PM1.12m | 11:05AM1.21m | 11:28PM1.10m | 11:50AM1.20m | 00:12AM1.09m | 12:34PM1.19m | 00:54AM1.08m | 1:17PM1.19m | 1:37AM1.08m | |||||||
Low Tide | 3:18AM0.18m | 3:52PM0.18m | 4:05AM0.20m | 4:39PM0.21m | 4:50AM0.23m | 5:24PM0.23m | 5:33AM0.24m | 6:08PM0.24m | 6:15AM0.24m | 6:51PM0.25m | 6:57AM0.24m | 7:33PM0.25m | ||||||||
 |  |  |  |  | |  |  | | | |  | | | | |  | | | | |
 | — | — | 6:18 | — | — | 6:16 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:11 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — |
 | 6:08 | — | — | 6:09 | — | — | 6:10 | — | — | 6:12 | — | — | 6:13 | — | — | 6:14 | — | — | 6:15 | — |
mm | — | — | — | 3 | 11 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1 | — |
Temp °C | 14 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
Feels °C | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 13 | SSW 14 | SSW 14 | SW 13 | SSW 14 | S 6 | S 6 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SSW 12 | ESE 11 | SSW 15 | ESE 11 | SSW 11 | SSW 10 | SSW 9 | NW 4 | SSW 15 | S 7 |
| kJ | 17 | 18 | 41 | 45 | 41 | 81 | 25 | 242 | 715 | 459 | 258 | 12 | 42 | 23 | 2574 | 935 | 232 | 3 | 43 | 215 |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 11 | S 8 | ESE 10 | ESE 10 | ESE 9 | ESE 12 | SE 12 | SE 11 | SE 12 | SE 11 | SE 12 | ESE 7 | SSW 15 | — | SSW 18 | E 15 | SE 10 | SE 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 16 |
| kJ | 20 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 61 | 69 | 64 | 36 | 33 | 34 | 10 | 44 | — | 66 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 95 |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 8 | SE 10 | S 8 | S 7 | ESE 14 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | NE 6 | ESE 6 | ESE 6 | SW 18 | NW 7 | ENE 10 | — | SE 10 | — | SE 13 | ESE 9 | SE 12 | SSW 11 |
| kJ | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 48 | 93 | 2 | 41 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 9 | — | 27 | — | 7 | 17 | 6 | 24 |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | NW 6 | NW 6 | NW 5 | NW 5 | SSW 7 | — | SE 3 | S 4 | — | NW 5 | NW 6 | SSW 8 | SSW 9 | SSW 11 | — | NW 4 | NNW 4 | SSW 8 | S 8 | — |
| kJ | 400 | 190 | 76 | 31 | 257 | — | 5 | 18 | — | 60 | 275 | 1454 | 1353 | 4757 | — | 12 | 23 | 264 | 531 | — |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | ||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 82 | 34 | 27 | 27 | 64 | 9 | 9 | 112 | 9 | 27 | 91 | 130 | 321 | 105 | 27 | 9 | 9 | 64 | 105 | 9 |
Best forecast wave conditions in The Wairarapa | ||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Lake Ferry Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Lake Ferry provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Lake Ferry can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Lake Ferry surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Lake Ferry) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Lake Ferry may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Lake Ferry is 28 km (17 miles) from Lower Hutt. If you plan a holiday in The Wairarapa, look for hotels and other accommodation in Lower Hutt. Lower Hutt has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.
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