
Surf Forecasts:
Lake Ferry surf forecast from 11 Jul 2026:
- Best quality surf: Saturday 18 Jul, 9AM (local time) - 10ft (3.0m), 8s period, SSW swell with glassy winds.
- Most powerful swell: Saturday 18 Jul, 6PM (local time) - 20ft (6.0m), 12s period, SSW swell with 10,388 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Saturday 11 Jul, 9PM (local time) - 3ft (0.9m), 15s period with SSW swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Lake Ferry this week:
The surf forecast for Lake Ferry over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 11) at 9PM. The primary swell is predicted to be 0.9m and 15s period with a secondary swell of 0.7m and 6s. The wind is predicted to be glassy as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Lake Ferry in the next 16 days are 6.0m 12s and forecast to arrive on Saturday (Jul 18) at 6PM. Winds are predicted to be cross-shore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 1.6m 5s period and expected on Tuesday (Jul 14) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9PM (Sat 11th Jul) | 3ft (0.9m) 15s |
| Best Surf | 9AM (Sat 18th Jul) | 10ft (3.0m) 8s |
| Most Powerful | 6PM (Sat 18th Jul) | 20ft (6.0m) 12s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Lake Ferry over the next 16 days.
G’day, Rusty here, and I’ve had a proper look at what’s on the cards for Lake Ferry over the next couple of weeks. Honestly, it’s a pretty lean run for the most part, but there are a couple of moments that’ll get the blood pumping.
The Big Picture: We’re looking at a long stretch of small, messy, or just plain unsurfable conditions, punctuated by one massive, wild weekend that’s only for the brave. The water is sitting at 52°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you’ll want the thickest rubber you’ve got.
This Weekend (Saturday 11th & Sunday 12th):
Saturday morning starts off with some clouds and a tiny 1 ft SSW swell pushing in from the south. It’s a long-period groundswell (18 seconds), so there’s energy, but with a light S breeze putting a cross-on kink in it, it’s a bit of a scratchy affair. The combined energy is 308 – moderate. By the afternoon, the swell bumps up to 3 ft (SSW, still 17 seconds), but the wind is still cross-on. It’s rideable, but nothing to write home about.
Now, Sunday is where it gets interesting. The morning is clear, and the wind swings around to a light NNE breeze – that’s offshore for Lake Ferry (the optimum is S). We’ve got a clean 3 ft of SSW swell, period dropping to 12 seconds. The combined energy is 343 (moderate). The “expect good surf conditions” tag is rare, and with the offshore wind, it’ll be smooth. This is the pick of the first week. The afternoon holds the same 3 ft swell with an even lighter offshore breeze (3 mph). It’s glassy, clean, and the best you’ll get for a while.
Midweek (Monday 13th to Friday 17th):
Monday morning is clean but tiny – 1 ft with a light offshore. The energy drops to 109. It’s surfable, but very ordinary. From Monday afternoon right through to Friday, the wind picks up from the NNW, hitting 15-19 mph, and the swell shrinks to 0.7 ft to 2 ft. The combined energy plummets to between 16 and 178. It’s a write-off. Thursday morning is the only glimmer – a glassy 1.0 ft swell (15 seconds, 81 energy) – but it’s still just a flat, glassy pond.
The Big One – Saturday 18th & Sunday 19th:
Hold onto your board. Saturday morning, the swell jumps to a massive 10 ft from the SSW, period dropping to 8 seconds. The combined energy is a whopping 1430 – strong. The wind is glassy from the NE (3 mph), but the forecast says it’s too big for the break. 10 ft at a sandbar with short-period energy is going to be a washing machine. This is expert-only territory, and even then, it’s a maybe. Saturday afternoon goes absolutely mental: 18 ft from the SSW (11 seconds), with a combined energy of 7388 – very strong. The wind is light cross-on. This is a solid no-go for paddle surfing. If you’ve got a kite, this setup looks way more interesting.
Sunday the 19th brings a 13 ft S swell (14 seconds, 5812 energy) in the morning, dropping to 10 ft (14 seconds, 3599 energy) in the afternoon. The wind is light and cross-off, so the surface will be clean, but these waves are still only for the most experienced, and even then, it’s a serious call. The long period (14 seconds) means it’ll be a proper groundswell, but at a sandbar, it might break too straight and close out.
The Following Week (Monday 20th to Sunday 26th):
After that wild weekend, it settles back into small, ordinary surf. Monday the 20th has a 6 ft S swell (12 seconds, 1043 energy) but with cross-on winds, it’s choppy and marginal. Tuesday the 21st is similar, dropping to 4 ft. From Wednesday the 22nd onwards, it’s back to tiny 1.0 ft to 2 ft swells, with combined energy mostly under 200. The mornings may have a brief glassy or offshore window, but it’s honestly just ankle-biters. Sunday the 26th has a 2 ft ESE swell and a light offshore, but it’s nothing to get excited about.
Best Surf: If you’re paddling, your window is Sunday 12th July – clean, offshore, 3 ft SSW swell. It’s the only true standout. For the big-wave experts, Saturday 18th and Sunday 19th will be a spectacle, but it’s a serious, serious mission.
Rusty.
Short Range ForecastSome drizzle, heaviest during Mon night. Very mild (max 12°C on Mon morning, min 5°C on Sun night). Winds increasing (calm on Sat night, fresh winds from the NNW by Mon night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 14°C on Tue morning, min 7°C on Thu night). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the NW on Wed morning, calm by Thu morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Saturday 11 | Sunday 12 | Monday 13 | Tuesday 14 | Wednesday 15 | Thursday 16 | Friday 17 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 18 | SSW 17 | SSW 15 | SSW 12 | SSW 11 | SSW 10 | SSW 13 | SSW 13 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 9 | S 18 | SSW 16 | SSW 19 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | SSW 15 | ESE 16 | SSW 14 | ESE 15 | ESE 16 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
112 | 486 | 376 | 334 | 259 | 144 | 53 | 129 | 82 | 27 | 8 | 6 | 26 | 37 | 44 | 45 | 22 | 48 | 110 | 89 | 162 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | cross-on | glassy | off | off | off | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | on | glassy | glassy | glassy | off | cross-off | glassy |
High Tide | 1:32PM1.34m | 1:57AM1.25m | 2:28PM1.41m | 2:54AM1.27m | 3:26PM1.46m | 3:51AM1.29m | 4:24PM1.49m | 4:49AM1.30m | 5:22PM1.50m | 5:47AM1.30m | 6:20PM1.48m | 6:46AM1.30m | 7:17PM1.45m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 7:51PM0.09m | 8:06AM0.05m | 8:50PM0.05m | 9:04AM0.01m | 9:49PM0.03m | 10:02AM-0.02m | 10:49PM0.00m | 11:02AM-0.04m | 11:48PM-0.01m | 12:01PM-0.05m | 00:47AM-0.01m | 1:01PM-0.04m | 1:44AM-0.01m | ||||||||
7:43 | — | — | 7:43 | — | — | 7:41 | — | — | 7:41 | — | — | 7:41 | — | — | 7:41 | — | — | 7:39 | — | — | |
— | 5:06 | — | — | 5:06 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:07 | — | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:08 | — | — | 5:09 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 9 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 10 |
Feels °C | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 10 | SSW 17 | SSW 15 | SSW 12 | SSW 11 | SSW 10 | S 10 | SSW 13 | SSW 12 | SSW 12 | SSW 9 | S 8 | SSW 16 | SSW 15 | SW 4 | SSW 15 | S 5 | SSE 5 | SSW 14 | SSW 12 | ESE 16 |
72 | 486 | 376 | 334 | 259 | 144 | 47 | 129 | 82 | 27 | 8 | 1 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 45 | 11 | 7 | 110 | 89 | 162 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 14 | ESE 10 | S 6 | ESE 10 | ESE 9 | ESE 10 | SSW 13 | SE 9 | E 8 | E 10 | SW 12 | E 13 | E 12 | SSW 19 | SSW 15 | ESE 15 | SSW 15 | ESE 16 | ESE 15 | ESE 15 | SSW 11 |
81 | 19 | 31 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 53 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 44 | 22 | 22 | 48 | 86 | 87 | 47 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 18 | — | ESE 10 | — | — | SSW 15 | ESE 10 | — | ESE 9 | — | E 10 | S 18 | S 8 | E 12 | NW 4 | N 7 | ESE 15 | SSW 14 | S 5 | E 5 | SSW 13 |
112 | — | 18 | — | — | 21 | 9 | — | 25 | — | 2 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 35 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 5 | S 5 | — | — | — | NNW 3 | NNW 4 | NNW 5 | NW 5 | NNW 4 | NW 5 | NW 5 | NW 5 | NW 5 | — | S 4 | — | — | NNW 3 | NW 4 | WNW 4 |
43 | 37 | — | — | — | 1 | 38 | 64 | 57 | 35 | 113 | 107 | 94 | 80 | — | 14 | — | — | 6 | 32 | 9 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 91 | 64 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 27 | 27 | 130 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 82 | 34 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 27 | 9 |
Best forecast wave conditions in The Wairarapa | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
Header Global | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Lake Ferry Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Lake Ferry provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Lake Ferry can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Lake Ferry surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Lake Ferry) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Lake Ferry may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Lake Ferry is 28 km (17 miles) from Lower Hutt. If you plan a holiday in The Wairarapa, look for hotels and other accommodation in Lower Hutt. Lower Hutt has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.










