Surf Forecasts:
Lake Ferry surf forecast from 16 Aug 2026:
- Best quality surf: Wednesday 19 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 11s period, S swell with onshore winds.
- Most powerful swell: Tuesday 18 Aug, 9PM (local time) - 18ft (5.5m), 11s period, SSW swell with 7,319 kJ wave energy.
- Next surfable swell (1★+): Wednesday 19 Aug, 9AM (local time) - 13ft (4.0m), 11s period with S swell.
Best Forecast Surf Conditions for Lake Ferry this week:
The surf forecast for Lake Ferry over the next 16 days: The first swell (rated 1 star or higher) is forecast to arrive on Wednesday (Aug 19) at 9AM. The primary swell is predicted to be 4.0m and 11s period with a secondary swell of 0.1m and 13s. The wind is predicted to be onshore as the swell arrives.
The most powerful waves expected at Lake Ferry in the next 16 days are 5.5m 11s and forecast to arrive on Tuesday (Aug 18) at 9PM. Winds are predicted to be onshore at the time the swell arrives. The largest open ocean swell (not directed at the beach) is 2.3m 6s period and expected on Friday (Aug 21) at 6PM.
| Wave Type | Time (NZST) & Date | Wave Height & Period |
|---|---|---|
| Next good surf (1 star+) | 9AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 13ft (4.0m) 11s |
| Best Surf | 9AM (Wed 19th Aug) | 13ft (4.0m) 11s |
| Most Powerful | 9PM (Tue 18th Aug) | 18ft (5.5m) 11s |
Table - best surf conditions forecast for Lake Ferry over the next 16 days.
The Lowdown
Alright, Rusty here, and let me tell you about the surf outlook for the Lake Ferry area. We've got a mixed bag coming up, with a few decent windows and some real heavy stuff you'll want to steer clear of.
The next few days are a write-off for surfing. We've got onshore winds and building swell that's going to turn the place into a washing machine. The swell energy is already moderate on Monday morning (925), and it just gets bigger and uglier. Tuesday afternoon the swell hits 15ft, and the energy is through the roof (4259). The wind is howling onshore. This isn't just bad surf; it's dangerous. Unless you're a masochist on a kite, stay on the beach. This is more of a kite-surfing zone than a paddle zone right now.
Now, the first real glimmer of hope comes on Thursday, August 20th. We get a total switch-up. Glassy conditions with a light WNW breeze in the morning and a light SW breeze in the afternoon. That's the good stuff. The swell is a clean 5ft from the South with a 12-second period. The energy drops back to a manageable 754. This is the standout session of the week. Clean, manageable, and with that long period, the sets will have some real push. It's an exposed spot, so it'll catch it all, but with the wind off the land, Lake Ferry will be clean and fun. The water temperature is 52°, which is a bit colder than normal for this time of year, so you'll want a good wetsuit.
Friday, August 21st is a bit of a step down. The swell is still there, around 5ft, and the period is a very long 16 seconds in the morning, which is classic groundswell. The wind is cross-offshore, so it won't be as clean as Thursday. The energy is still solid (1205), but the conditions are marginal, likely down to the tide. It's still surfable, but Thursday is the clear winner.
Saturday and Sunday, the 22nd and 23rd, are a total loss. Strong winds will blow the surf out. The swell drops right off, and the energy on Sunday is barely a whisper (27). It's a big gap of flat, messy conditions.
Looking further ahead, Monday, August 24th morning looks promising again. We get a gentle offshore wind from the North, and a 5ft South swell with a 13-second period. The energy is moderate at 896. That offshore wind is the key. This is another clean session on the cards. It's a long-range call, so keep an eye on it, but the signs are good.
After that, it's back to onshore winds and building swell through the end of August, with energy readings climbing back into the thousands. The waves get big, but the quality will be poor. The final real opportunity is on Sunday, August 30th. Glassy conditions in the morning with a light SSE breeze. The swell is a smaller 4ft from the South, with a 10-second period and moderate energy (530). It won't be as powerful as the other windows, but it will be clean. The rest of the run into September is small and blown out.
So, the pick of the litter is clearly Thursday, August 20th. Get on it. The Monday the 24th is the back-up plan. The rest is a bit of a gamble or a full-on mission.
Stay salty,
Rusty
Short Range ForecastLight rain (total 5mm), mostly falling on Wed morning. Very mild (max 10°C on Tue morning, min 6°C on Mon afternoon). Winds decreasing (fresh winds from the S on Tue night, calm by Wed night). | Days 4-6 Weather SummaryMostly dry. Very mild (max 13°C on Fri morning, min 8°C on Thu night). Winds increasing (calm on Thu morning, strong winds from the NW by Sat morning). | ||||||||||||||||||||
Monday 17 | Tuesday 18 | Wednesday 19 | Thursday 20 | Friday 21 | Saturday 22 | Sunday 23 | |||||||||||||||
AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | AM | PM | Night | |
Swell Height Map | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wave Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 8 | SSW 14 | SSW 6 | SSW 8 | SSW 10 | SSW 11 | S 11 | S 14 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 | S 16 | SSW 14 | SSW 12 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | SSW 14 |
Wave Graph | |||||||||||||||||||||
517 | 356 | 248 | 1619 | 4182 | 6632 | 4447 | 4310 | 1708 | 722 | 546 | 501 | 1175 | 803 | 367 | 198 | 119 | 73 | 30 | 15 | 41 | |
Wind (km/h) | |||||||||||||||||||||
Wind State on-shore cross-onshore cross-shore cross-offshore off-shore glassy | on | on | on | on | on | on | on | on | on | glassy | glassy | off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross-off | cross | glassy |
High Tide | 8:43PM1.26m | 9:11AM1.24m | 9:36PM1.22m | 10:04AM1.23m | 10:28PM1.18m | 10:54AM1.22m | 11:17PM1.14m | 11:42AM1.21m | 00:03AM1.12m | 12:27PM1.21m | 00:48AM1.10m | 1:11PM1.20m | 1:31AM1.09m | ||||||||
Low Tide | 2:34PM0.07m | 3:02AM0.09m | 3:29PM0.11m | 3:52AM0.13m | 4:21PM0.16m | 4:40AM0.16m | 5:11PM0.19m | 5:26AM0.20m | 5:59PM0.22m | 6:10AM0.22m | 6:44PM0.24m | 6:53AM0.24m | 7:28PM0.25m | ||||||||
7:07 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:05 | — | — | 7:03 | — | — | 7:01 | — | — | 7:00 | — | — | 6:58 | — | — | |
— | 5:38 | — | — | 5:39 | — | — | 5:40 | — | — | 5:42 | — | — | 5:43 | — | — | 5:44 | — | — | 5:45 | — | |
mm | — | — | — | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Temp °C | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 7 |
Feels °C | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 4 |
Swell 1 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SSW 15 | SSW 14 | SE 14 | E 10 | ESE 10 | — | SE 13 | S 14 | S 13 | S 12 | S 12 | S 11 | S 16 | SSW 14 | SSW 12 | SSW 11 | SSW 11 | S 10 | S 10 | S 9 | SSW 14 |
376 | 356 | 8 | 78 | 77 | — | 6 | 4310 | 1708 | 722 | 546 | 501 | 1175 | 803 | 367 | 198 | 119 | 73 | 30 | 15 | 41 | |
Swell 2 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | SE 15 | SE 8 | SE 8 | SE 9 | — | — | — | SE 13 | SE 12 | SE 11 | SSW 17 | S 16 | SE 12 | SE 12 | SE 12 | E 11 | E 13 | E 13 | S 16 | SW 15 | SW 6 |
9 | 64 | 93 | 70 | — | — | — | 7 | 6 | 5 | 55 | 139 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 6 | |
Swell 3 Height (m) Direction Period (s) | ESE 15 | SE 15 | SE 10 | SE 13 | — | — | — | — | SE 12 | ESE 9 | SE 13 | SE 12 | SE 12 | E 10 | E 8 | E 15 | — | — | E 13 | E 13 | SSW 9 |
23 | 9 | 26 | 28 | — | — | — | — | 38 | 27 | 7 | 6 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 4 | — | — | 4 | 3 | 17 | |
Wind waves Height (m) Direction Period (s) | S 8 | SSW 7 | SSW 6 | SSW 8 | SSW 10 | SSW 11 | S 11 | — | — | — | — | NNW 4 | NW 6 | NW 6 | NW 6 | NW 6 | NW 6 | NW 5 | NW 6 | NW 6 | WNW 5 |
517 | 208 | 248 | 1619 | 4182 | 6632 | 4447 | — | — | — | — | 12 | 144 | 297 | 240 | 258 | 258 | 166 | 278 | 202 | 80 | |
Nearest Offshore or Glassy | |||||||||||||||||||||
Distance (km) | 91 | 164 | 91 | 91 | 298 | 236 | 112 | 91 | 91 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 27 | 82 | 82 | 91 | 140 | 82 | 140 | 283 | 9 |
Best forecast wave conditions in The Wairarapa | |||||||||||||||||||||
Best forecast wave conditions in New Zealand | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Information about the Lake Ferry Surf forecast
The above surf forecast table for Lake Ferry provides essential information for determining whether the surfing conditions will be good over the next 16 days. A general guide to surfing at Lake Ferry can be found by selecting the local surf guide option on the grey menu. Our Lake Ferry surf forecast is unique since it includes wave energy (power) that defines the real feel of the surf rather than just the height or the period. If you surf the same spot (Lake Ferry) regularly then make a mental note of the wave energy from the surf forecast table each time you go. Very soon you may start to choose your surf days based on the wave energy alone combined with our forecast of favourable offshore wind conditions. Our star ratings will help here and of course you will also find the usual wave height and period predictions on our surf forecasts as well as a full break down of the swell components under our advanced users option (to reveal that, click the little Einstein character under the tide times).
Further information to help with frequently asked questions about our surf forecast for Lake Ferry may be found under the help tab on the top menu and also by moving your mouse over the question marks on the surf forecast table itself. Please always bear in mind that the forecast is for near-shore open water and local factors at each surf break influence the actual breaking wave height, such as the beach / reef profile, water depths offshore and shelter.
Lake Ferry is 28 km (17 miles) from Lower Hutt. If you plan a holiday in The Wairarapa, look for hotels and other accommodation in Lower Hutt. Lower Hutt has rooms for a wide range of budgets as well as car hire and transport links.











