Jacarandas Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, it’s Rusty here.

Alright, let’s talk about the next stretch. It’s a bit of a slow grind for the most part, and honestly, the surf on offer is pretty small and messy for a lot of the window. We’ve got a run of days where the waves are just not doing much, so you’re going to have to pick your moments carefully. The first real chance of anything decent doesn’t show up until around the 11th of August, and even then, it’s a matter of managing expectations.

The water temperature is sitting at 89°F, which is a solid 4°F warmer than usual for this time of year. That’s a pretty notable jump, so you’ll be surfing in a warm bath more than anything else.

Let’s start with the early days. The 4th and 5th are pretty much a write-off. Tiny swell, poor conditions, and light winds that don't help shape anything. The 6th and 7th see a slight bump in energy, but the wave quality is still poor, with light cross-onshore winds messing with the surface. The swell is starting to push a bit more on the 7th, with a period of 18 seconds, but it’s still weak and the conditions are marginal at best. The 8th and 9th are similar, with the swell sticking around but the wind and quality not really lining up. You’re looking at waves around 3ft, but the surface is going to be choppy or crossed up.

Now, the 11th of August is when things start to get a little more interesting. The morning sees a bit more energy in the water, with a 2ft swell from the SW and a 18 second period. The wind is light, and while it’s still cross-on, it’s got a bit more life to it. It’s still not a standout, but it’s the first time the score starts to creep up. The morning of the 14th is another one to keep an eye on, with the energy jumping up and a similar 3ft SW swell. Again, the wind is light, but it’s cross-on, so it’s not going to be perfect. The afternoon of the 14th pushes the energy even higher, with the same swell size and direction. This is the most promising window we’ve got, but it’s still only in the marginal range.

The 15th of August morning has the biggest swell of the window at 4ft from the SW, with a period of 16 seconds. The energy is strong, but the wind is variable. It’s a bit of a wildcard – there’s some size there, but the quality is still a question mark. After that, things start to fade again. The 16th afternoon has a funky cross-off breeze from the N, which cleans things up, but the swell is back down to 3ft.

So, what’s the pick? Honestly, nothing is screaming "drop everything and go". The best windows are the mornings of the 11th and 14th, and the afternoon of the 14th. These have the most consistent energy and the lightest winds. The swell direction is SW, which is right in the sweet spot for Jacarandas, a point break that’s exposed to that direction. It’s a consistent spot, so it’s not a shock that it’s holding onto whatever it can get. Crowds are possible, so you might have some company.

The bigger 15th morning is tempting with that 4ft, but the wind is a bit more variable, and with a 16 second period, it might be a bit more lined up than usual at a point break, which is fine. But the overall quality is still uncertain. For the second week, just keep it simple: the 14th looks like the most promising day, but it’s a long-range call, so treat it with a bit of caution.

Bottom line: it’s a flat, frustrating stretch with a couple of small windows where you could get a few fun ones if you’re not too picky. The 14th is your best bet.

Rusty out.

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