Honolua Bay Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on the table for Honolua Bay. I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – this outlook is a tough one. The whole 16-day window is basically a write-off for paddle surfing, and I’ll tell you why.

We’ve got a persistent, strong ENE wind blowing through the entire period. It’s sitting right around 18-22 mph, and it’s coming from the exact wrong direction. For a break that needs that clean NNW swell to really shine, this ENE wind is a full-on cross-off breeze. It’s going to put a nasty chop on the surface and ruin any chance of those classic, glassy Honolua lines. The swell is almost entirely from the ENE and NE, which is the complete opposite of what this reef-and-point setup wants. The swell heights hover between 4 ft and 8 ft, but the wind and direction are so bad that every single session is scored as “poor surf conditions.” The combined wave energy is moderate, ranging from 261 to 801, but it doesn’t matter when the quality is this rough.

The first record is on Thursday, July 9th, and it’s a mess. Every single day through to Friday, July 24th is the same story: wind-affected, out of direction, and not worth paddling out for. There are no breaks in the poor quality. The only thing that changes is the wind speed, which actually gets stronger on the weekend of July 18th-19th, hitting 22-25 mph, so that’s even worse. The water temperature anomaly is average for the time of year, so that’s the only thing that’s not a problem.

There is a tiny flicker of something on the afternoon of Monday, July 20th. The swell height drops to 3 ft, but the period jumps to a very long 16 seconds from the ENE, and the combined energy hits 642. The wind is still a moderate cross-off at 16 mph. The file calls it “marginal,” and honestly, that 16-second period is from the wrong direction. A long, groundswell wave from the ENE is going to unload way too straight on a beach break, but here at Honolua, a point-and-reef setup, it *might* just wrap in enough to create a few clean, long walls. It’s a long shot and a very quiet day for experts only. That’s the only thing even close to a highlight in the whole two weeks, but it’s no better than a glimmer.

Forget the standouts – there are none. This is a blank run for the area. With that relentless wind and wrong-direction swell, this setup looks far more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing. Don’t bother driving to the bay. Let the forecasts change, because it can’t get much worse.

Rusty.

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