H-Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this stretch here at H-Reef is shaping up to be a bit of a waiting game. For the first two weeks, the trade winds are just hammering us from the east and east-northeast, blowing a solid 15 to 16 mph, which is keeping everything messy with a cross-chop. We’ve got swell, no doubt about it – around 5 ft to 7 ft most days, but with a short, choppy period of 7 to 8 seconds. The combined energy is moderate, sitting between 340 and 471 for most of that first week, but that onshore wind just kills it. You’ll be looking at poor surf conditions right through until at least Sunday the 12th, though that Sunday morning does show a bit of a bump in energy to 611 – still cross-shore though, and only rated as marginal at best. The following week (14th July to 19th July) stays similar: waist-to-chest high on the bigger days, but that relentless cross-wind keeps the surface chopped. Water temp is right around average for the time of year – about 79°F – so at least the water’s warm.

Then, right at the tail end of the forecast into the third week, things get interesting. We’re talking about that Monday afternoon, 20th July. The winds finally back off a little to 12 mph, still cross-shore, but the real story is the swell. It jumps to a groundswell with a very long period of 18 seconds, out of the east. The combined energy hits 781 that morning and then really cranks to 1037 in the afternoon – that’s strong energy, you’ll feel the difference. The height is only around 4 ft, but the long period and high energy will make for some lined-up, powerful waves. Because H-Reef is a reef break and needs a specific swell direction, and the optimum here is a nice NNE swell, this E 18-second groundswell is going to wrap in a bit. It won’t be perfect, but for a reef, a long-period groundswell can really create some nice, clean lines with those long waits between sets. Paddling out will be easier. This is the standout, but it’s over two weeks away, so treat it as a promising but not locked-in option. The Tuesday 21st still has that E 15-second swell hanging around with moderate energy (587), but the wind picks back up again. For the whole first two weeks, with the size around 5 to 7 ft, it’s not big enough to be expert-only, but the constant chop makes it uncomfortable for beginners.

So, to sum it up: the first twelve to thirteen days are a write-off for decent surfing because of the wind. Your real chance is that very late period—specifically the afternoon of Monday, 20th July—when that long-period groundswell arrives. It’s the only moment in the whole 16-day window that even gets close to a recommendation.

Stay patient,
Rusty.

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