H-Reef Surf Forecast and Surf Report

G’day, I’m Rusty. Let’s talk about what’s shaping up at H-Reef. Straight up – it’s a tough run ahead. The forecast shows a lot of days where the conditions just aren’t coming together for a good paddle. The swell direction is mostly on the money, lining up from the NNE to E, which is what this reef wants to see, but the wind is nearly always cross or cross-on, and that’s keeping things chopped up and messy. The water temp is sitting at 80°, which is pretty much bang on average for this time of year, so no surprises there.

Now, looking at the first few days – Sunday the 13th through to Wednesday the 16th – the swell is small, between 2 ft and 5 ft, but the problem is the wind. It’s a gentle to moderate breeze from the ENE or E, all cross or cross-on, and the wave comment says “poor surf conditions” for every single session. The combined swell energy is weak to moderate (205 down to 125), and the period is short, between 8 and 10 seconds, so you’re looking at weak, short-period, messy waves. Not worth paddling out for. The energy picks up a bit on Wednesday the 16th afternoon (511), but still, the wind and chop ruin it. That’s a solid four days of nothing good.

Thursday the 17th rolls in with a bump in size – 8 ft in the morning from the ENE, period 10 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 1021 – that’s moderate energy. But the wind is still cross at 16 mph, and the forecast calls it “marginal surf forecast or questionable tide conditions.” That’s the first time we see a score above zero, but it’s still a 1 out of 10. It’s not clean. For an advanced reef break, that wind angle is just not doing it any favours. The afternoon gets worse with a risk of thunderstorms and fresh cross-winds. Don’t get excited.

From Friday the 18th through to Monday the 21st, the swell holds between 6 ft and 8 ft, all from the E or ENE, with periods dropping to 8 seconds. The combined energy stays moderate (687 down to 429), but every single session is marked as “poor surf conditions.” The wind stays cross from the E or ENE at 12 to 19 mph. This stretch is a write-off. It’s not surfable in any meaningful way. If you’re a kite surfer, this constant cross-shore wind and lumpy sea state might look interesting, but for a paddle surfer, it’s not the go.

Then we hit Tuesday the 22nd of September. This is the standout. Morning sees 7 ft from the E at 9 seconds, combined energy 1033 – that’s moderate. But the afternoon is where it gets real: 8 ft from the E, period jumps to 12 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell – and the combined energy rockets to 1807, which is strong wave energy. Wind is still cross at 12 mph from the E, but the forecast calls it “marginal” with a score of 2 out of 10. For this reef, with that size and longer period, it’s the best on offer, but it’s not clean. The wind isn’t offshore, it’s cross-shore, so there’s going to be a cross-chop. Still, if you’re an experienced surfer and you can handle a bit of texture, this is the session to look at. The swell direction (E) matches the optimum (NNE) reasonably well. Just be aware that at 8 ft, this is expert territory – not for beginners.

Wednesday the 23rd holds size at 8 ft from the E, period 11 seconds in the morning, combined energy 1621 – still strong. But again, cross-wind at 16 mph. Same story on Thursday the 24th: 8 ft in the morning, dropping to 8 ft in the afternoon, with periods from 9 to 9 seconds, combined energy still over 1000. But the wind stays cross or cross-on. These days are marginal at best.

From Friday the 25th onward, the swell drops back below 7 ft and the period shortens to 7 or 8 seconds. Combined energy falls off to moderate and then weak levels. Wind stays cross. It’s back to poor conditions. The last week of the outlook is a long stretch of nothing worth paddling for. So, the only real chance to get something half decent is Tuesday the 22nd afternoon, and maybe the mornings of the 23rd and 24th, but none of it is clean. It’s a tough forecast.

Stay hopeful, though – it tends not to stay poor for long around here. Forecasts can change. But as it stands, this reef is not showing us much love.

Rusty.

Read more