Flume Beach Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here, let's size up the surf for the next couple of weeks.

We've got a run of solid, powerful SW groundswell on the way, but it is a mixed bag for the lineup. The first action kicks off this Friday morning, July 31st, and it's a classic case of "too much of a good thing" for most of the period. The standout window is actually a short, sweet spell early next week.

Friday, July 31st kicks things off at Flume Beach. It's a bit cloudy, with a light NNW cross-off breeze, and the swell is sitting at a solid 7 ft from the SW, pulsing with a 12-second period. The water temp is sitting at 57°, which is about normal for this time of year. The combined energy is strong (1350), and the waves look clean, but at 7 ft, it's already pushing into intermediate territory. Things get better in the afternoon as the sky clears and the wind drops to a glassy 5 km/h from the WSW. The swell drops a touch to 7 ft, but those glassy conditions (1517 combined energy) will make for some seriously good, clean lines for experienced surfers.

Saturday, August 1st, is the pick of the early run. A clear sky and a 15 km/h offshore wind from the north will groom the 6 ft SSW groundswell from a 17-second period into perfect shape. The energy is very strong (2462). This is a long-period swell, which means it will be powerful and better at a reef or point, but the offshore wind will make it work at Flume Beach. It's a morning for the experienced crew.

Sunday, August 2nd, the swell starts to get too big. We're looking at 10 ft from the SW on Sunday morning with a 25 km/h north offshore. The combined energy (3840) is massive. This is for experts only, and even then, the wind is getting strong. It stays big and clean-looking through Monday, August 3rd, but the wind clocks onshore in the afternoon, turning the 15 ft WSW swell into a choppy mess.

After that, things get a bit ordinary for a few days. The swell stays big, the wind gets messy, and the quality drops. You'll see a lot of "poor" and "marginal" flags in the forecast from Tuesday, August 4th through to Friday, August 7th. The swell is there, but it's either too big and onshore, or the wind is just wrong.

Then, Friday, August 7th offers another glimmer. A clear sky and a 15 km/h offshore wind from the NNE will be all over an 8 ft SW groundswell with a 17-second period. The combined energy (4188) is very strong. This is a solid, clean, powerful swell for those who can handle it. This is the second standout for the experienced crew.

The long-range forecast, out to August 15th, is a tale of two halves. The second week of August (from the 9th onwards) is dominated by relentless, powerful SW groundswells, but they are often accompanied by strong, messy winds. You'll see 15 ft to 16 ft swells with strong cross-onshore winds, which will be a complete washout for a paddle surfer. The energy values are through the roof (over 14000 on the 10th), but the conditions are just plain ugly. Honestly, the setup looks more interesting for the kite surfers through that second week than for the paddle crew. Stay patient, and look for a window in the first week.

Rusty.

Read more