Erie Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s talk about what’s happening with the surf over the next 16 days. I’ll be straight with you—this ain’t looking like a classic stretch. We’re staring down a long, dry run with only a tiny window of small, sickly waves early on, and then nothing but flatness for the rest of the outlook. The first few days have some activity, but it’s weak, and the quality is poor. After that, the lake goes quiet for a long stretch.

We’re looking at Erie (Erie) for the whole picture. The water temp is about average for this time of year, nothing crazy to report there.

The action, if you can call it that, starts on Saturday the 5th. Morning brings a tiny 1 ft swell from the NE with a period of just 3 seconds. That’s a short-period windswell, weak as it gets with combined energy of only (3). The wind is a moderate cross-shore breeze at 12 mph, creating a cross-chop. It’s not surfable in any meaningful way. The afternoon nudges up to 2 ft, still from the NE, period 4 seconds, and energy reaches (16), but it’s still a crummy, choppy mess.

Sunday the 6th sees a similar story. The morning has 1 ft from the NE with a period of 4 seconds and energy (5). The wind is a cross-offshore breeze, so the surface is clean, but the swell is tiny and weak. The afternoon brings 2 ft from the NE, period 4 seconds, energy (19), but the wind swings cross-shore, messing up the surface again.

Monday the 7th is the best of a bad bunch. The morning has the cleanest conditions with a gentle cross-offshore breeze, but the swell is a pathetic 0.3 ft from the NE with a period of 4 seconds and energy (1). It’s barely a ripple. The afternoon goes flat with zero energy.

From Tuesday the 8th right through to Sunday the 20th, the guidance shows zero energy and no swell. There are some clean, glassy moments, like the afternoon of the 15th and the morning of the 16th, but there’s nothing to ride. The lake is dead flat. The wind picks up again towards the end, with some strong onshore breeze, but it’s just blowing over a flat lake.

So, what’s the standout? Honestly, there isn’t one. The only tiny glimpse of something surfable is the early morning of Sunday the 6th, with the clean conditions and a 1 ft wave. It’s not good, but it’s the only option. For anyone who isn’t a beginner, this is a total bust. The swell never gets above 4 ft, and even that’s poor quality with onshore wind. This is a classic case of a long flat spell for the area. Keep your board in the car and your eyes on the horizon—forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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