Erie Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s take a long, hard look at what’s on the table for the next couple of weeks. I’m gonna be straight with you – this one is a tough pill to swallow.

Overall, the pattern is flat. We’re looking at a long stretch of days with barely a ripple, let alone a wave worth paddling for. The first real surf of any kind doesn’t show up until Thursday morning, July 9th, and even then, it’s a sad little affair. From there, we get a few days of tiny, weak swells, and then it all dries up again. There’s a massive gap from Sunday, July 12th, all the way through the end of the forecast on July 24th, with nothing but zeroes and “poor surf conditions” staring back at us. That’s a brutal 12-day stretch of nothing.

Let’s break down the only period that even qualifies as surfable. The best, and really the only, option on offer is Erie. It’s consistent, but what it’s consistent at is being small. The break is exposed to the west, which is the direction we need.

Thursday, July 9th kicks things off with a pathetic 0.7 ft to 1.0 ft from the WSW. The swell period is a meager 2 to 4 seconds, so it’s just wind slop, not a real swell. The combined energy is a weak 1 to 2 (1-2). Morning winds are a clean cross-shore from the SW at 9 mph, but the afternoon gets choppy with a cross-onshore W wind at 12 mph. Honestly, it’s not worth getting wet.

Friday, July 10th is the closest thing we have to a standout, and that’s a very low bar. The morning gets a glassy 1 ft from the NW, with a 3-second period and a combined energy of 3 (3). The wind is glassy from the WSW at 3 mph. That’s the cleanest the water will be all period, but the swell is still tiny. The afternoon goes flat.

Saturday, July 11th offers a clean morning with a cross-offshore ENE wind at 9 mph, holding up a 1.0 ft to 1 ft NE swell. The period is still short at 3 to 4 seconds, and the energy is a paltry 2 to 4 (2-4). The afternoon gets messy with a 16 mph cross-shore from the NE.

After that, it’s a desert. From Sunday, July 12th onward, the guidance shows zero swell height and zero combined energy. Winds will be blowing, but there’s nothing to blow into shape. The water temperature anomaly is about average for the time of year, so the lake is its usual self, but with no waves, it doesn’t matter.

Look, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but there’s no sugar-coating this. The only possible surf is on Friday morning, July 10th, at Erie. If you’re desperate for a paddle in glassy conditions, you could mess around on a foamy or a longboard, but don’t expect to catch anything with any push. For the rest of the 16 days, save your petrol and wax. It’s a total blank.

Rusty.

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