El Palito Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, surfers, Rusty here. Let's cut through it and get real about the next couple of weeks.

The long and short of it is, we're looking at a pretty bleak stretch ahead. Honestly, for the next two weeks, there's almost nothing to get excited about. The swell window is closed, and what little energy shows up is messy. You're gonna want to keep the boards in the car and maybe find something else to do.

The only tiny glimmer on the radar is way out there, around Monday the 17th. We might see a pulse of small, short-period swell, but it's a long ways off and I wouldn't book any time off work for it.

Now, for the first week, it's just dead. Monday the 3rd kicks off with a tiny 3ft NE windswell at El Palito, but it's got a short 6-second period and junk onshore winds. The water is a warm 83°, which is about normal for this time of year, but that's about the only positive. The combined energy is weak, sitting at 56, and the forecast says "poor surf conditions." It's not worth a paddle.

From Tuesday the 4th all the way through Sunday the 9th, it's completely flat. There is no swell to speak of, just mornings with light offshore breezes that turn into choppy, cross-onshore afternoons. It's a frustrating pattern, with each day offering up the same tease and then falling apart.

The following week starts the same way, flat as a pancake from Monday the 10th through the 15th. Then, on the morning of Tuesday the 11th, a model run shows a tiny bump of 3ft NE swell with a 7-second period, but again, it's labelled as poor and the energy is still weak at 86. It's not going to be anything.

Things finally get interesting, relatively speaking, on Monday the 17th. The morning might actually be rideable. We're looking at a small 3ft NE swell with a 7-second period. The wind is forecast to be glassy and offshore, which is a major plus. This is the most promising window in the whole period. However, the combined energy is still weak, only 71, and the break itself is fairly consistent but exposed. It's not going to be epic, but it might be clean and fun for a beginner session on a longboard. This is the one to keep an eye on, but it's a week and a half away, so treat it as a promising possibility, not a certainty.

The next day, Tuesday the 18th, sees that swell drop right back down to a tiny 0.3ft with a long 11-second period, which just means it's fading fast.

So here's the bottom line. This is a solidly poor outlook. For a spot like El Palito that's usually fairly consistent, this entire 16-day window is a bust. If you're desperate, the glassy morning of Monday the 17th with that small NE swell is your only real shot, and even then, keep your expectations on the floor. The rest of the time, the water might be more interesting for the kitesurfers than us paddle folk.

This is Rusty, signing off. See you on the beach when the ocean remembers how to work.

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