El Brusco Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this forecast is a bit of a tough one. The whole 16-day window at El Brusco is a long stretch of nothing worth paddling out for. The data shows not a single session that I’d recommend, with every time slot coming in with a big fat zero score. The first real chance of surf comes on Monday, 20 July, but it’s a no-go.

We’re looking at a solid start to the week with a fair bit of swell energy, but the wind is just wrong. Monday morning, 20 July, we’ve got a 4 ft swell from the NNE, but it’s a short-period 6-second windswell, and the wind is a cross-onshore NE breeze at 6 mph. The combined energy is moderate (111), but the conditions are already described as poor. The water temp is a very unusual 74°F – that’s 5°F warmer than normal for this time of year, so it’s much warmer than usual. That afternoon, the swell bumps up to 5 ft (NNE, 7 seconds), but the wind strengthens to 12 mph cross-onshore, making it choppy. Energy jumps to 216, but still poor.

Tuesday, 21 July, is much the same story: 4 ft to 5 ft of NNE windswell, cross-onshore winds, poor conditions. Wednesday, 22 July, drops to 3 ft and 4 ft, with ENE cross-shore and cross-onshore winds. The energy is weak (83 and 106). It’s a grind.

By Thursday, 23 July, the swell has faded to 2 ft and 2 ft, with light cross-onshore breezes. The energy is barely a whisper (71 and 56). Friday, 24 July, is even smaller – 2 ft and 2 ft, with a Slight air and light breeze. This is a total flat spell, and it lasts for days.

Then, on Saturday, 25 July, we get a bit of a spike: a 5 ft NW swell (6 seconds) in the morning, but it’s a fresh cross-shore wind at 19 mph, making it lumpy. The energy is moderate (143). The afternoon has 4 ft, still cross-shore, still choppy. Sunday, 26 July, pushes up to 5 ft (NW, 7 seconds) in the morning, with moderate cross-shore winds, and energy hits 253. By the afternoon, it’s 7 ft (NW, 8 seconds) with a fresh 19 mph cross-shore wind, giving a strong energy of 551. That’s a lot of water moving, but the wind is ruining it. The conditions are poor, and with the size and the beach setup, this is looking far more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

Monday, 27 July, sees a 6 ft swell from the NNW (10 seconds, so a bit more period) with a light WNW cross-onshore wind. That’s a better period, and the energy is high (533), but the wind is still onshore. The afternoon is 5 ft (10 seconds) with a gentle cross-onshore breeze. Not clean.

After that, things drop off again. From Tuesday, 28 July, through to the end of the forecast on Tuesday, 4 August, the swell is consistently small – mostly under 3 ft, often 2 ft to 2 ft, with short periods (6–9 seconds) and weak energy (under 200). The winds are a mix of cross-on, cross, and even a glassy moment on Wednesday, 29 July morning, but the swell is just too tiny (2 ft) to do anything with. The only good point is that the water is still warm, but the surf is not. There’s a long gap of poor conditions from the start to the end. For an area with a fairly consistent spot like El Brusco, it’s a bit of a blank run, but it happens. Forecasts can change. Keep an eye on it.

Rusty.

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