El Brusco Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Right off the bat, I’ll be straight with you – this forecast is a tough one. For the first two weeks, we’re looking at a real drought. The swell is tiny, mostly around 0.7 ft to 3 ft, with weak energy readings mostly in the teens, twenties, and thirties. The period is short, under 8 seconds for most of it, meaning the waves are just gutless. The wind is often cross or cross-on, and the wave comment keeps saying "poor surf conditions". It’s a flat spell, plain and simple.

We’ve got a massive gap in quality surf. From the start of the record on the 7th of August, right through to the 20th, there’s nothing worth paddling out for. The only slight glimmer comes on the morning of the 20th of August, when a glassy morning with 3 ft swell from the NW shows up with a period of 8 seconds and a combined energy of 136 – that’s a moderate kick. The wave comment says "surfable waves but very ordinary conditions", so it’s not a standout, but it’s the first real chance to get wet.

The real standout, the one that has my heart pumping a bit, is the morning of the 22nd of August. The swell jumps to 5 ft from the NW, with a period of 11 seconds – that’s a proper groundswell, nice and long. The combined energy hits 505 (strong), and the wind is a cross-shore from the WNW at 16 mph. At El Brusco, it’s a fairly exposed spot, and the optimum swell direction is NW, so this is lining up. But it’s an advanced break, and with that 5 ft swell, it’s not for beginners. The crowd profile says "often", so expect company. The period over 11 seconds might make it a bit straight at a beach break, but El Brusco handles it well. The water temp is 74°, which is 4° warmer than usual, so it’s a lot warmer than normal for this time of year.

The week leading up to that, from the 14th onward, we see a few pulses with moderate energy in the 100s, but the wind is never fully clean and the swell is still small. The 22nd is the only day that really has the size and energy to get your attention, but it’s a long-range call, so keep an eye on it.

So, the bottom line: the first two weeks are a write-off. The 20th of August offers a glimmer, and the 22nd of August is the one to circle on the calendar. It’s not a classic run, but that one morning could be worth the wait.

Rusty.

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