El Brusco Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

Right off the bat, I’ve got to be straight with you – the outlook for El Brusco over the next 16 days is a real tough one. We’re looking at a long, dry spell with nothing rideable for the first week and a half. The water is sitting at a very unusual 73°, which is much warmer than normal for this time of year, but that’s about the only thing that’s out of the ordinary.

From Wednesday the 15th right through to late on Monday the 20th, we’re dealing with tiny, weak waves. The combined swell energy is mostly in the single digits or low double-digits (like 14, 29, 35), and the heights are barely breaking 2 ft. The winds are just about all cross-on, making for poor, choppy conditions. There’s no surf to speak of.

Things start to show a little bit of life around Monday afternoon, the 20th. The swell picks up to 5 ft from the NNE, with a period of 7 seconds, and the combined energy jumps to 304. That’s moderate wave energy. But the problem is it’s still called “poor surf conditions” and the wind is onshore. It’s a bit of a tease. That little pulse continues into Tuesday the 21st with 5 ft waves, but again, cross-on winds and a short period keep it messy.

The best chance we get in this whole forecast window is on Thursday the 23rd in the morning. I’m talking about Thursday the 23rd, morning. The swell drops back to 2 ft from the NW, but look at this – we get glassy conditions. There’s barely a breath of wind, and the water will be smooth. The period is short at 5 seconds, so it won’t have much punch, but it’ll be clean. The combined energy is only 38, so it’s weak, but it’s the only window where the conditions line up. This is the standout, but it’s a small one for beginners who just want to get wet.

After that, Friday the 24th and Saturday the 25th see a bit more size – 4 ft to 5 ft – but the winds strengthen and get cross or cross-on, stirring up the surface. The energy on Saturday afternoon hits 236, which is moderate, but a fresh cross-shore wind makes it lumpy. Sunday the 26th is a bit cleaner with lighter winds and 4 ft swell from the NNW, but it’s still not a standout.

Honestly, for the whole 16 days, the only time I’d even think about paddling out is that glassy morning on Thursday the 23rd. The rest is a write-off. If you’re a kite surfer, the stronger wind days on the 25th with 5 ft swell might be more interesting for you, because for paddle surfing, it’s just not on.

Rusty.

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