El Agujero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get into it.

The 16-day window is a tough one for El Agujero; the forecast is filled with poor conditions and no recommendations are flagged. The prevailing NNE wind and onshore or cross-onshore flow are the main issue, keeping the surf messy and lumpy for the majority of the period. There is a little light at the end of the tunnel, but it’s a long way off.

Starting off, Sunday the 26th, we’ve got a 8ft NNE swell, but it’s junk with a fresh 19 mph cross-onshore wind. The combined energy is moderate (670). The short 8-second period means the waves are weak and won’t hold shape. This is a total write-off.

Monday the 27th through to the end of July look equally grim. The swell drops a bit, around 4ft to 6ft, but the wind stubbornly stays onshore or cross-onshore at 12 to 16 mph. The period drops to 6-7 seconds, producing very weak, disorganized energy (as low as 128). You’re better off looking at the photos than driving there.

The first glimmer of something we can call a surfable window arrives on Saturday, August 1st. The wind lightens to 6 mph from the N in the morning, going onshore, with a 6ft, 7-second NNE swell. The combined energy is still moderate (286). The rating is a 1, meaning it’s marginal. If you’re desperate for a paddle, this is the only real chance in the first week, but don’t expect anything epic.

We then hit a gap of several days with no real recommendations. Sunday the 2nd through to Tuesday the 5th of August have surf on offer, but it’s all marked as poor. The swell builds from 3ft to 6ft, but the wind remains onshore from the NNE, and the period stays short (6-8 seconds). The combined energy climbs from 124 to 533, but it’s all wasted energy due to the wind.

The standout—and the only one worth getting excited about—is a long-range call for Monday, August 10th. The swell hits 10ft from the NNE with a period of 8 seconds. The combined energy is strong, reaching 1075 in the morning and 1170 in the afternoon. The wind is moderate NNE at 16 mph, but it’s onshore in the morning and cross-onshore in the afternoon. This is a big, powerful, but messy swell. At 10ft, it’s expert-only territory. The consistent NNE swell direction isn’t ideal for this reef break, which prefers a NNW. The crowds are often a factor here, so expect a lineup. The water temperature is 73°F, which is about normal for the time of year with a 0.7°F anomaly.

To be honest, between now and then, the setup is more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing, given the consistent cross-onshore wind and open beach exposure. The forecast is changeable, and it usually doesn’t stay this poor for long, so keep checking back.

Rusty.

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