El Agujero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get real about the forecast for El Agujero. I’ve stared at this data and, honestly, it’s a tough stretch for anyone after a clean wave. The short version: there’s surf on the table almost every day, but it’s going to be a battle with the wind, and the quality is just not there. We’re looking at a lot of onshore and cross-onshore breezes messing up what could be decent little waves.

The water temp is sitting at 75°F, which is about 2°F warmer than the usual for this time of year. So, it feels pretty normal, not too chilly, not too warm. You’ll be fine in a spring suit.

Right off the bat, this Saturday morning, the 8th, has some swell – 5ft from the NNE – but it’s coming with a 7-second period and a solid 12 mph north wind. That's a recipe for chop and crumble. The energy down at the break is only 257, which is weak. The afternoon is the same story, just a bit more wind. It’s a no-go for a quality session.

Sunday and Monday don’t offer any relief. Swell stays similar, around the 5ft – 6ft mark, but that wind is still honking from the NNE at 12-16 mph. The wave comment says it all: “poor surf conditions.” It’s just messy.

As we roll into the middle of the week, the wind actually goes cross-on for a few days, which is even worse. It’s going to be choppy and hard to find a clean face. The swell is still there, but period stays short, mostly 6-7 seconds. The energy does pick up a bit on the 14th and 15th, jumping from the 200s to the 400s, and the swell bumps up to 6ft and even 7ft on the 15th. But that’s not the good kind of energy. It’s just a lot of short-period, wind-blown mess. This is the kind of setup that looks more interesting for kite surfing than for paddle surfing, if you ask me.

The weekend of the 16th and 17th sees the swell ease back a little, down to 5ft – 5ft, and the wind backs off slightly to 12 mph. It’s still onshore, but a touch better. The period stretches out to 8 seconds on the 17th, which is a small improvement. Still, the wave comments are relentless: “poor surf conditions.” I’m not getting excited.

The following week, starting around the 18th, we finally see a real change. The swell drops in size, down to 4ft – 4ft, but the period starts to lengthen, hitting 9 seconds on the 18th and 19th. That’s a much better sign. The energy drops back into the 200s, which is fine for these smaller waves. The wind is still from the north, but it looks a bit more manageable. These could be the best days of the whole window – still small, but maybe a bit more shape.

Then, right at the end of the forecast, the 21st is a strange one. The swell is 5ft, but the period drops right off to 5-6 seconds and the energy tanks to 116-130. That’s a weak, messy windswell. Not worth much. However, the weekend of the 22nd and 23rd shows some promise. The period is back to 8-9 seconds, and the swell is a fun-looking 4ft – 5ft from the NNE. The energy picks up again to 271-336. The only downside is the wind goes cross-on again on the 23rd, so the 22nd is probably your best bet for a clean-ish wave.

So, here’s the honest truth. There’s no standout, perfect day in this 16-day window. The most promising surf is likely around the 18th and 19th, when the swell is smaller but cleaner, and then again on the 22nd. But even then, it’s not going to be epic. The consistency is there, but the quality is just poor for the majority of the time. It tends not to stay this bad for long, so keep an eye on it, but for now, don’t get your hopes up.

Rusty.

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