El Agujero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. I’ve been staring at the charts for a while, and I gotta be honest with you—this 16-day window for El Agujero is a tough one. There’s not a single standout session in the bunch, and the whole period is a write-off for decent paddle surfing. The swell is there at times, but the wind and conditions just keep spoiling it.

First up, we’ve got a long, frustrating gap. From right now, Sunday the 12th of July, all the way through to the end of the first week, there’s nothing worth paddling out for. The breeze is onshore or cross-onshore, the swell is small and weak, and the wave comment is consistently “poor surf conditions.” The combined swell energy is weak, barely cracking 100 (values like 154, 197, 153, 117, and even down to 55 and 61) – that’s barely a ripple. The water temp is sitting at 73°F, which is about average for the time of year, so no surprises there.

As we push into the second week, the swell actually starts building. You’ll see it pick up from Thursday the 16th, with heights around 4ft to 5ft, but the period is a short, weak 6 seconds and the wind is still cross-onshore. By Friday the 17th, the swell bumps up to 5ft–6ft from the NNE, and the wind turns onshore. The combined energy climbs into the moderate range (225, 279), but the conditions are still listed as “poor.” It’s a frustrating pattern.

The real build happens over the weekend of the 18th and 19th of July. Swell heights reach 6ft to 7ft, with periods of 8 seconds, and the wind is onshore at 16 mph. The combined energy jumps to strong levels (391, 422, 541, 602), but the onshore wind is going to chop it up. This is a classic case of plenty of water moving but no quality. For a reef break like El Agujero, that’s a real shame. The swell direction is NNE, which matches the optimum swell direction of NNW fairly well, but it’s all for nothing with the wind.

By Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st, the swell holds around 7ft to 7ft, with a slightly longer period of 9 seconds. The wind finally eases to a gentle breeze on Tuesday, still onshore, but the combined energy is very strong (680, 693, 745). The wave comment is still “poor.” This setup is too big for beginners (over 5ft) and, with the onshore wind, it’s only going to appeal to experts who want to wrestle with messy, powerful waves. Honestly, with that much wind and swell, this break looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The final few days of the window, from Wednesday the 22nd to Monday the 27th, see the swell slowly drop back from 5ft to 4ft. The period stays at 9–10 seconds, which is decent. The wind does improve on Wednesday afternoon with a brief switch to a light offshore from the NNW, but the combined energy is still strong (515, 516). The rest of the time, it’s back to onshore or cross-onshore breezes. The very last entry on Monday the 27th afternoon is a cross-onshore mess with 4ft swell and moderate energy.

Bottom line: don’t get your hopes up for this stretch. The swell is there, but the wind is a constant problem. If you absolutely have to get wet, the best of a bad bunch is probably the Wednesday afternoon of the 22nd, when the wind goes light offshore for a moment, but it’s a fleeting window. For the rest of the time, save your energy. This blank run is a bit of a bad spell for the area, but it won’t last forever. Forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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