El Agujero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m looking at the forecast for El Agujero. Straight up, I gotta be honest with you—this is a rough 16-day stretch. The guidance points to this being a consistent reef break that’s exposed to the swell, but the wind is just not playing ball. We’ve got a solid run of cross-onshore and onshore winds that are going to mess up the surface for almost the entire period.

The water here is sitting at 74°F right now, which is about 2°F warmer than average for this time of year—so it’s a touch on the warm side, comfortable for a long session.

We start off Thursday, July 30th, with the first surf on offer. You’ll see a 5ft swell from the NNE, but it’s a short-period 7 seconds, and that NE wind is blowing 16 mph, cross-onshore. The combined swell energy is moderate (236), but the wave comment says it all: poor surf conditions. It’s choppy and messy. That’s the story for Thursday and Friday. Swell drops a fraction, but the wind stays the same. Saturday, July 1st, we get a slight shift to a more onshore wind, which is still not clean. The swell is down to 4ft to 4ft, and the energy is weak to moderate (177 and 150). Not a good look.

Sunday, August 2nd, the swell picks back up to 5ft, but the period is a mushy 6 seconds, and we’re back to cross-onshore winds. The pattern stays locked in: consistent NNE swell, moderate energy, but the wind refuses to get offshore. It’s all cross-on or onshore for the next week and a half.

The real standouts come later, but with a big caveat. On Tuesday, August 11th, we see a jump in swell size to 8ft, and the period improves to 8 seconds. The combined energy jumps to a strong 699. The wind is onshore (N 12 mph). That’s a lot of power, but it’s going to be a messy, chunky beast. By Wednesday, August 12th, the swell hits 8ft with a period of 8 seconds and the energy is very strong at 969. This is expert-only territory at that size, especially with the wind still onshore and then turning cross-onshore in the afternoon. This wave energy is no joke, but the surface won’t be glassy. It’s a powerful but rough session for the experienced crew only.

The rest of the second week follows the same pattern: swell stays solid, but the wind stays onshore or cross-onshore. The period does stretch out to 9 seconds later in the week, which is better, but without an offshore wind, it’s not going to be the clean, lined-up waves this reef deserves.

So, the best pick? Those few days from August 11th to 13th have the most power. If you’re a strong surfer and can handle the messy conditions, the 8ft to 8ft NNE swell will be heavy. But for a clean, classic session, there’s really nothing to get excited about here. The forecast confidence is solid for the near-term, but the reality is the wind is the enemy for the entire 16 days. We’ve got a gap of, well, almost the whole period, with no top-tier recommendations. It’s a tough run, but it tends not to stay this poor forever—forecasts can change.

Rusty, signing off.

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