El Agujero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what El Agujero’s got cooking for us over the next couple of weeks.

And honestly, I gotta be straight with you – it’s a tough stretch. We’re looking at a long, dry run of poor conditions right through the middle of August. The first day that even has a whisper of something worth paddling out for isn’t until Monday the 11th of August, so that’s a solid gap of almost two full weeks with nothing but messy, cross-onshore junk.

Until then, the wind is mostly coming from the NE or NNE at 12 to 16 mph, blowing cross-on or onshore, chopping up the water and just making a mess of things. Swell is there – around 3 ft to 5 ft, from the NNE – but the period is short, between 6 and 7 seconds, so there’s no power or shape behind it. The combined swell energy is weak to moderate, only hitting around 120 to 266 on the meter. If you’re desperate for a paddle, Saturday the 1st of August has a brief moment of offshore wind from the NNW at 9 mph, but the swell is still weak and small at 3 ft. It’s not great.

Water temp is sitting at 74°F, which is about a degree and a half warmer than normal for this time of year – just a little on the warm side, but nothing wild.

Now, things do start to perk up around Monday the 11th of August. Swell bumps up to 5 ft from the NNE, still a bit short on period at 6 to 7 seconds, but the combined energy jumps sharply into the moderate-to-strong range, hitting 201. By Tuesday the 12th, we’re looking at 6 ft to 7 ft swell, with the energy hitting between 401 and 500 – that’s a serious step up in power. Wednesday the 13th is the real standout: 7 ft swell from the NNE, period stretching to 8 seconds, and the combined energy peaking at 500. This is the biggest, most powerful swell of the whole forecast.

But here’s the catch – the wind on those days is still a problem. It’s either cross-on or onshore from the NNE at 12 to 16 mph. The surf will be choppy and messy. This kind of size, 7 ft to 7 ft, is getting into expert-only territory, especially with that onshore wind. For a reef break like El Agujero, the NNE direction does match the optimum swell direction, so there’s some potential in the water. If you’re an experienced local who knows the reef, there could be a few rogue, clean waves on Wednesday morning when the wind might be a bit lighter. The period is still quite short, so the waves won’t be the cleanest, but the energy is there.

After that, things drop back down quickly. Thursday the 14th and Friday the 15th are back to 5 ft to 5 ft, and the wind stays onshore and fresh, up to 19 mph. The window closes fast.

So, if you’re set on a paddle, your one real shot this whole run is Wednesday the 13th of August. It’s not perfect – far from it – but if you time the early morning glass-off, you might get a few punchy, head-high waves at El Agujero before the wind ruins it. The rest of the time, I’d leave the board at home.

Rusty.

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