El Agujero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. It’s a tough outlook for El Agujero (reef) over the next two weeks. The short story is: the wind is a persistent problem, and the surf quality just never gets clean. The water is a touch warmer than normal at 74°.

For the first several days, it’s all cross-onshore wind from the NE, blowing at 16 mph or more. That’s chopping up the swell before it even gets a chance to shape up. Wednesday the 29th has a small 4ft NNE swell with a weak period of 5 seconds, and the combined energy is a low 116 – not enough to get excited about. Thursday the 30th bumps up to 6ft with a period of 7 seconds, but it’s still messy and the energy climbs to 277 (moderate), but the wind kills it.

We see a bit of a lull on Saturday the 1st of August. The swell drops back to 4ft with a 7-second period, and the wind drops to a light 6 mph from the NNW, but it’s still cross-onshore. The energy is down to 161. It’s marginal, but still not clean.

The swell builds again through the start of August, reaching 6ft on Monday the 3rd, with periods of 8 seconds and a solid combined energy of 444 (moderate). But again, the wind is cross-onshore and choppy. By Wednesday the 5th, the swell hits 7ft from the NE, but the wind picks up to 19 mph and it’s lumpy. This is not a paddle-friendly scenario.

The second week just keeps the same pattern. Friday the 7th sees 8ft from the NNE with a period of 8 seconds and a big 580 energy, but the wind is still hammering it. Saturday the 8th pushes 8ft from the NNE, with a period of 9 seconds and a massive 947 energy – that’s strong. But the wind is onshore or cross-onshore, and the surf is listed as poor. For a reef break, that’s a washing machine. This is really only for experts, and even then, it’s not clean.

From the 9th to the 12th, we’re looking at 8ft to 8ft swell with periods of 8 to 9 seconds, and the energy stays high (between 861 and 1011). The wind is onshore or cross-onshore. It’s consistent, heavy, but messy. Honestly, with that much wind and that much swell on a reef, it looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

There are no standout days. The best on offer is probably the 1st of August, purely because the wind is lightest, but it’s still marginal and the swell is small. The rest of the window is a write-off for clean conditions. The offshore wind direction in the guidance (SSW) never appears, so the optimum window never aligns. It’s a long stretch of poor surf.

Rusty, signing off.

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