El Agujero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. I’ve had a good look at the charts for the coming weeks, and I gotta be honest with you – it’s a tough stretch for the local breaks.

Right now, the only solid option we’ve got on the board is El Agujero. This is a consistent reef break, exposed to the swell, and it’s an intermediate-level wave. The water temp is sitting at 23.2° which is a touch warmer than normal for this time of year, so the shorty is fine.

The trouble is, the wind is just not playing ball. For the first few days, starting Thursday the 16th, we’re looking at a cross-onshore breeze at 12 mph, making for choppy, poor surf. The swell is tiny at 3.3 ft from the NE, with a short period of 5 seconds and weak energy (88). It’s just not worth paddling out for.

The swell does start to build as we head into the weekend. By Saturday the 18th, we’re seeing 5.2 ft from the NNE, but the period is still short at 7 seconds. The energy is picking up to moderate levels (251), but the wind is getting stronger, hitting 16 mph and staying cross-onshore. It’s going to be lumpy and messy.

This pattern pretty much holds through the entire forecast. The swell gets bigger – we’re talking 7.9 ft by Friday the 24th and into the following week. The energy gets strong, hitting values like 727, 899, and even 980 by the 26th. But here’s the kicker: the wind is almost always cross-onshore or onshore, and it’s a stiff breeze, often 16-19 mph. The data is consistently calling it “poor surf conditions.” The swell direction is NNE, which isn’t the optimum for this spot (which prefers NNW).

For a break like El Agujero, which is a reef, you really want that clean glass or offshore wind to make it work. With this constant onshore flow, it’s going to be a battle. The waves will be there, but the quality just won’t be. By the time the swell gets over 8.2 ft around the 25th and 26th, it’s really only for the experts out there, and even then, the wind is going to ruin it.

There’s a small window on the 21st and 22nd where the wind swings more to “on” direction, but it’s still a strong breeze, and the surf quality is still marked as poor. It’s a tough call. Honestly, for a surfer, this setup looks more interesting for a kite session than a paddle session, given the consistent wind and building swell.

So, the honest truth from me is: don’t get your hopes up. There’s essentially a 16-day stretch of poor-quality surf ahead. The swell is there, but the wind is a deal-breaker. It’s a rare blank run for this area.

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