El Agujero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get this out there. I’m Rusty, and I’ve been watchin’ this stretch for a while. Here’s the read on what’s coming.

Alright, listen up. I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – this 16-day window for El Agujero is a tough one. The whole run is plagued by a persistent cross-onshore wind from the NNE, and that’s got the wave quality sittin' in the "poor" bin from start to finish. The swell direction is mostly NNE, which is about as far from ideal as it gets for this reef. The optimum swell direction is from the NNW, and we don’t see a sniff of that until the very end.

We start on Saturday the 25th of July. The morning has some clouds, a cross-on NNE wind at 35 km/h, and a lumpy 8 ft swell. The combined energy is moderate at 679, but it’s a short-period 8-second windswell, and with that wind, it’s just a mess. This continues straight through Saturday and into Sunday the 26th. The swell drops a touch, but the wind stays fresh cross-onshore. It’s all pretty average.

Monday the 27th sees the swell drop to 6 ft by the morning, and the wind backs off a bit to a moderate breeze, 25 km/h, but still cross-on. The energy drops to 333. Still choppy. This pattern hangs around through Tuesday the 28th, where the wind turns more "on" (onshore) with a 5 ft swell. Not great.

Wednesday the 29th, the swell drops right down to 4 ft with a period of only 6 seconds. The energy is weak at 155. The water temp is about 73°, which is pretty normal for this time of year, so no surprises there. Thursday the 30th and Friday the 31st are more of the same – small, weak, short-period swell and cross-onshore wind. Not worth paddling out for.

We get a little bump on Saturday the 1st of August. The swell picks up to 6 ft, but the period is still a short 7 seconds, and the wind is a gentle cross-onshore at 15 km/h. The energy is still low at 266. It’s a little better, but the quality is still poor. That holds through Sunday the 2nd, with a 5 ft swell and 8-second period, energy at 341. Still not clean.

Then we hit a real dry spell. From Monday the 3rd of August through to Tuesday the 4th, the swell is tiny, around 4 ft, with very weak energy (below 250). The wind is still cross-on. It’s basically a flat spell.

Now, here’s the one glimmer. On Wednesday the 5th of August, the swell direction finally swings around to the NNW – the optimum direction for this reef. The swell height is only 3 ft, but the period jumps to 11 seconds, which is a long-period groundswell. The energy is moderate at 328. The wind is still cross-on from the NNE, but the longer period means there’s better shape potential. This is a promising but less certain call, being so far out. It’s the best we’ve got, but it’s small, and the wind is still a problem.

Thursday the 6th of August turns a bit ugly. The morning has a 3 ft swell from the N with a 10-second period, but by the afternoon, the swell jumps to 7 ft from the NNE with a strong 10-second period and an energy of 794. That’s a lot of power, but the wind is still cross-on at 25 km/h. For a reef break, that’s just messy. It’s too big for beginners and the wind is bad. This setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The last few days, from Friday the 7th to Sunday the 9th of August, sees the swell holding around 6 to 6 ft, but the period drops back to 7 seconds and the wind is relentless cross-onshore. The energy is moderate, but the quality is poor. Not worth a session.

So, to sum it up: there’s no standout day here. The best bet is that Wednesday the 5th of August, with the long-period NNW swell, but it’s small and the wind is still cross-on. Otherwise, it’s a long stretch of poor-quality, wind-affected surf. The water temp is average, the crowds are often a thing at this spot, but they won’t be a problem because no one will be in the water. It’s a bleak run, but that’s how it goes sometimes.

Rusty.

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