El Agujero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s get into it. Rusty here, looking over the next couple of weeks for our local stretch. Straight up, it’s a rough run. We’ve got a solid two-week window with almost nothing worth paddling out for. The swell is there at times, but the wind just won’t cooperate, and the quality is shot.

The only spot on the map is El Agujero, a reef break. It’s consistent and exposed, with an optimum swell from the NNW. The water temp is sitting about average for the time of year. But from right now, Sunday July 12th, all the way through to Monday July 27th, it’s one long stretch of poor surf conditions.

Let’s walk through it. Starting Sunday the 12th, we’ve got a 3 ft swell from the NNW, period around 8 seconds, with a cross-on wind from the NNE at 9 mph. The combined energy is weak (137), and it’s just choppy and messy. That carries through Monday the 13th, similar story: 3 ft, cross-on, gentle breeze. Tuesday the 14th drops to 2 ft, still cross-on, energy down to 57 (weak). Wednesday the 15th is more of the same, with a brief bump to 4 ft but from the NE with only a 5-second period – that’s junky windswell, combined energy 99.

Thursday the 16th sees the swell jump to 5 ft, then 5 ft in the afternoon, but it’s from the NNE with a short 6-7 second period, and the wind is cross-on and building to 16 mph. Energy climbs to 215 (moderate), but it’s still poor. By Friday the 17th, the swell hits 6 ft from the NNE, period 8 seconds, but it’s onshore wind at 16 mph. Energy is getting strong at 392, but the conditions are just awful. This pattern holds all the way through to Monday the 27th, with swell heights bouncing between 5 ft and 7 ft, almost always cross-on or onshore, and the period never gets above 8 seconds. Even when the swell hits 7 ft on Saturday the 25th and Sunday the 26th, with energy over 400 (strong to very strong), the wind is on or cross-on at 16-19 mph. This is more of a kite-surfing setup than a clean surf day.

So what’s the best on offer? Honestly, there isn’t a standout. The whole 16-day period is a write-off for surf quality. The only thing worth mentioning is that from Friday the 17th onward, the swell is consistently over 5 ft, peaking at 7 ft, so there’s energy. But with the persistent onshore and cross-onshore winds, every session is going to be choppy, blown-out, and frustrating. If you’re an expert looking for a challenge in messy conditions, the bigger days like Friday the 17th or Saturday the 25th might offer some size, but don’t expect any clean walls.

It’s a tough forecast. Hang in there.

- Rusty

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