El Agujero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, folks, Rusty here. Let's be straight. The next 16 days out at El Agujero are a tough watch. The ocean’s putting in some swell, but the wind just won't play ball. We’re looking at a long stretch of onshore and cross-onshore conditions that are going to keep the waves chopped up and messy. It’s a real shame because there is energy in the water, but the quality just isn’t there for a good paddle.

Let’s start from the beginning. Right off the bat, Friday the 3rd of July, we’ve got a NNW swell pushing in at 5ft with a combined energy of 442 – a moderate push. But that wind is a cross-on from the NNW at 6 mph, and it's already making things ugly. It stays like that all day, and into Saturday morning, with a 5ft swell but the same crummy cross-on breeze. Saturday afternoon the wind goes onshore, which is no better. The water temp is sitting at 72°, which is pretty average for this time of year, but you won't care much when you’re getting blown off your line.

Sunday the 5th is more of the same, dropping down to 3ft swell with onshore wind. We get a weird little blip Monday morning with a 4ft swell from the north, but the period drops to a tiny 5 seconds – that’s pure wind-slop with only 114 in combined energy. Don't get your hopes up. The whole first week is a write-off, with onshore winds every single day and wave comments that all say "poor surf conditions."

The second week doesn't get much better. There’s no clean window. The winds just keep hammering from the NNE. On Friday the 10th of July, we see a 5ft swell, but it’s onshore at 16 mph. The energy is there (146), but the surface will be a mess. It’s like the ocean is teasing us.

Even trying to be optimistic, there’s not a single standout in this forecast. The swell directions (N, NNE, a little NW) are all cross to onshore for this exposed reef break. The optimum is from the NNW, but when it *does* come from there, the wind is blowing from the same direction. We get a bit of a longer-period swell on Sunday the 12th with an 11-second pulse from the NW, but it’s only 1ft – too small to do anything with, and still cross-on.

Honestly, with the persistent onshore flow and the swell quality, this setup looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing for the entire 16 days. The reef at El Agujero is consistent, for sure, but it’s rarely breaking clean. For us surfers, this is just a blank run. The forecasts might change, but as it stands, leave the board at home.

Rusty out.

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