El Agujero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let me level with you. It’s Rusty, and I’ve been staring at this forecast for El Agujero and it’s a tough one. The next week and a half is a real grind, but there’s a glimmer of something special right at the end if you’ve got patience.

Right now, for the next week, it’s a story of onshore winds and messy surf. The swell is coming in from the NNE, which is pretty much straight onshore for this reef break, and the wind is howling out of the NE and NNE at 15 to 18 mph. That’s a cross-on or onshore wind all the way, and it’s just tearing the surface apart. We’ve got a solid amount of swell – the combined energy is moderate, hitting between 190 and 262 – but it’s short period stuff, only 7 seconds, so it’s weak, choppy, and just not fun. The water temp is sitting at 73°, which is about normal for this time of year, but with the wind on it, you won’t feel the warmth.

This pattern holds through the weekend and into next week. The swell builds, with the combined energy climbing into the 400s and 500s, and the period eventually stretches to 8 seconds, but the wind doesn’t let up. It’s a fresh breeze from the NNE at 18 mph through the 24th and 25th, keeping the surface lumpy. By Monday the 27th of July, the swell is up over 8 ft, hitting 10 ft, and the energy is strong (1251 to 1514). That’s too big for this setup, and with the wind still on it, it’s purely for the experts if they’re feeling brave, but honestly, it’s a mess.

Then we get to Tuesday the 28th of July. Now, this is where it gets interesting. The wind finally swings around to the north, dropping to 12 mph, and it’s offshore. The swell is still a hefty 10 ft, with a period of 9 seconds, and the combined energy is a massive 1367. The forecast says the wind and tide are favorable, but the swell is predicted to be too big for this break. For a reef like El Agujero, that’s a caveat – it might be a washing machine. But if you’re a seasoned charger and you can handle that size, the offshore wind could make it an epic, clean session. This is the only standout in the whole 16-day window. The energy drops on Tuesday afternoon down to 8 ft, and the score drops right off, so the morning is your window.

After that, the wind stays light to moderate from the north, and the swell backs down to 6 ft to 7 ft through the 30th and into the start of August. The wind turns cross-on again on the 31st, and the surf looks poor. The first two days of August show a light breeze and a slight improvement, with the combined energy in the 400s, but the forecast is still calling it marginal.

So, the bottom line: this is a long, dry spell for most of the run. The one true standout is the morning of Tuesday the 28th of July. It’s big, it’s offshore, and it’s for experts only. The rest of the time, you’re better off checking the forecasts again or remembering why you have a backup hobby.

Rusty.

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