El Agujero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, Rusty here. Let’s have a look at what’s on offer for the next couple of weeks.

Well, I’m not gonna sugarcoat it – this is a pretty grim stretch for El Agujero. If you’re looking for a clean, lined-up wave, you’re going to be waiting a long time. The entire 16-day outlook is a write-off for decent surf. The wind is almost always coming from the NE or NNE, keeping it cross-on or directly onshore, and the water’s going to be a mess of chop and lumpy bumps. The swell energy starts off weak, with a combined energy of just 46 (weak), and even though it builds to strong levels by the end of the month – hitting 964 (strong to very strong wave energy) by the 28th of July afternoon – the wind never lets up to give us a clean face. The swell direction is mostly N or NNE, which is okay for the break, but it doesn’t matter when the wind is ruining it.

The water temp is sitting at 73°F with a 2°F anomaly – that’s already a degree and a half warmer than usual for this time of year, so it’s notable. But you won’t care about that when you’re fighting onshore slop.

The first few days are a total dud. From Wednesday 15th July through to the end of July, every single session is marked as poor surf conditions. The swell does start to push up over 5 ft around the 18th and 19th, but it’s still short-period windswell (6-7 seconds) and the wind is cross-on. By the 20th, the swell hits 6 ft with a bit more period (8 seconds), but the wind is directly onshore, so it’s just a bumpy, closed-out mess. That’s not beginner-friendly either – anything over 5 ft with onshore wind is a handful.

From the 22nd to the 24th, the swell holds around 5 ft to 6 ft, but the wind swaps between on and cross-on, and the wave comment stays “poor surf conditions.” The 25th and 26th see the swell bump up to 5 ft-6 ft, but the wind is now a fresh 19 mph cross-on, making it lumpy. The energy is climbing into the moderate range (320-427), but honestly, it’s just not surfable.

The last few days of the month, from the 27th to the 30th, the swell really gets going – 7 ft to 8 ft, with periods hitting 9 seconds and energy readings over 900 (strong to very strong wave energy). That’s a lot of water moving, but the wind is still cross-on or onshore, with a fresh breeze. For a reef break, this is a no-go unless you’re a masochist. The sets will be heavy and walled up, and with that onshore wind, it’s going to be a washing machine. This is strictly expert-only territory if you even try it, and I wouldn’t bother.

Honestly, if you’re desperate for a paddle, the best of a bad bunch is probably the 20th and 21st of July, when the swell is 6 ft from the NNE with a 7-8 second period and the wind is onshore – but even that’s generous. The setup looks more interesting for a kite surfer than a paddle surfer, given the consistent cross-on wind and building swell.

So, no standouts, no hidden gems. The whole 16-day window is a blank run. This is one of those times where the forecast just doesn’t have anything for us. It won’t stay poor forever, but right now, it’s a hard pass.

Rusty.

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