El Agujero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, this is Rusty, and I’m lookin’ at what we’ve got for El Agujero over the next 16 days, and I gotta be straight with you—it’s a tough stretch. The overall pattern shows a constant run of poor surf conditions for the first two weeks, with tricky onshore and cross-onshore winds messin’ up pretty much everything that rolls in. There’s a gap of about two and a half weeks here where there’s just no good surf to recommend, so you’ll wanna be patient.

Starting Friday the 10th and Saturday the 11th, we got tiny little waves—2 to 4 feet, short period around 5 seconds, all from the N or NNW, but the wind is blowin’ onshore or cross-on, with wind speeds of 9 to 16 mph. Combined energy is weak, only in the 28 to 67 range. Water temp is sittin’ at 72°, pretty much normal for this time of year, nothin’ unusual there. But the quality is just poor—choppy, messy, not worth paddlin’ out.

Sunday the 12th through the 14th sees a bit more size, with swell hitting 3 to 4 feet, and the period stretches to 8 or 10 seconds on Sunday afternoon, which gives a bit more life to the waves. Combined energy bumps up to 144 and even 210 on Sunday arvo, but the wind stays cross-on or onshore from the NE or NNE, 9 to 16 mph. It’s still lumpy and poor. Not your day.

From Monday the 15th all the way through Thursday the 24th, the swell hangs around 5 to 8 feet, with periods mostly 6 to 9 seconds, so it’s a mix of weak and moderate energy (60 to 741 in combined energy). But here’s the kicker—wind is relentless, cross-on or onshore at 9 to 19 mph, and on the 16th and 17th we get fresh cross-onshore breezes at 19 mph. The surf is lumpy, choppy, and just plain poor. For a beach and reef setup like El Agujero, this is more of a kite surfer’s playground than a paddle surfer’s dream.

Now, the one stand-out window comes on Saturday the 25th, and it’s the only decent day in the whole run. In the morning, we get glassy conditions—wind from the NNW at just 3 mph, which is a huge positive. The swell is 7 feet from the NNE with an 8-second period, and combined energy is 459 (moderate). That glassy wind will make it clean, and the size is solid for intermediates, but at 7 feet, beginners might find it a bit too much. This is your best bet by a long shot—just know it’s over a week away, and forecasts can change. There’s also a “marginal” shout on Friday the 24th afternoon—8 feet swell from NNE, light breeze at 6 mph—but it’s flagged as questionable due to tide, so don’t count on it.

So yeah, make a note for Saturday the 25th morning, and cross your fingers for that glassy session. Otherwise, it’s a long wait.

Rusty.

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