El Agujero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this 16-day window for El Agujero is a tough one to call. The whole period is dominated by a persistent NNE wind flow, which is a cross-onshore direction for this reef, and it never really lets up. The result is a long stretch of poor surf conditions, with the wave comment staying stubbornly negative throughout. The combined swell energy starts moderate at 643 (on Sunday the 26th) but quickly drops off, and while it does build again later, the wind never cleans up. There’s a significant gap in recommendations right from the start, with the first few days offering nothing good. In fact, the entire first week is a write-off. It’s not until we get into the second week that the swell energy starts to climb again, but the wind remains a problem.

Let’s break it down. The first few days – Sunday the 26th through to the end of July – are a complete bust. You’re looking at a 7.2ft swell from the NNE on Sunday morning, but with a 18.6 mph cross-onshore wind, it’s lumpy and ugly. The water temp is 73.2°F, which is about average for the time of year. The swell drops through the week, but the cross-onshore conditions persist. The period is short, mostly 6 to 8 seconds, so it’s weak, windswell energy. Nothing to get excited about. The first week ends with a similar picture: small, choppy, and poor.

As we move into the first week of August, the swell energy begins to build again. By Tuesday the 5th of August, we’re seeing a 5.9ft to 6.2ft swell from the NNE, with the combined energy hitting 441 on the afternoon. But again, the wind is a fresh cross-onshore breeze at 12.4 to 15.5 mph, keeping the surface chopped up. The period is still short at 8 seconds, so it’s not groundswell. The energy climbs further through the 6th and 7th, hitting 558 on the afternoon of the 7th August, but the wind is still cross-onshore. The 8th of August sees the swell up to 6.2ft, but the period finally stretches to 11 seconds, bringing a longer-period groundswell. The combined energy jumps to 895 – that’s moderate to strong energy. However, the wind is still a moderate cross-onshore at 15.5 mph, so the surf will be choppy and not clean. The 9th of August has a 6.6ft swell, but the wind is back up to a fresh 18.6 mph cross-onshore, making it lumpy again.

Honestly, there isn’t a single standout session in this entire outlook. The swell is there at times, especially around the 8th and 9th of August, but the wind direction is always wrong. The optimum swell direction for El Agujero is from the NNW, and this forecast is all NNE. So the swell is coming from a less-than-ideal angle, and the wind is ruining the surface. With the reef break being exposed, it’s just not set up for good paddle surfing. If you’re into kite surfing, the consistent cross-onshore breeze and lumpy waves might be more your thing, but for a surfboard, this is a long, blank run. It’s a normal pattern for the area when the trades are blowing, but it still stings. Forecasts can change, but right now, I’d say save your energy.

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