El Agujero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you – this 16-day window for El Agujero is a tough one. The surf is there, but the conditions are just not cooperating. We’re looking at a solid run of waves, but the wind is going to be a problem for almost the entire stretch.

Right off the bat, from Thursday, August 6th, we’ve got swell on the way. The combined energy is moderate (392), with waves around 6ft coming from the NE. The water is sitting at 74°, which is about what you’d expect for this time of year. The problem? That wind is a cross-on from the NE at 16 mph, making it choppy and messy. This is a consistent reef break, but with that wind, it’s just not going to be clean.

The pattern doesn’t let up. Friday the 7th and Saturday the 8th are the same story – swell in the 5ft to 6ft range, but with a short period of 7 to 8 seconds and that persistent onshore or cross-onshore wind. It’s a poor surf setup. This continues right through the first week. The wind is relentless, mostly from the NNE at 12 to 19 mph, keeping everything bumpy and lumpy. The swell energy stays moderate, mostly in the 200s and 300s, but with that short period, the waves are weak and won’t have much shape.

We get a bit of a bump in the energy around Saturday, August 15th and Sunday, August 16th, with the combined energy pushing into the 400s (404 and 409). The swell height is up to 6ft. Still, the wind is cross-on, and the period is only 7 seconds. It’s more power, but it’s still messy. For a couple of sessions on the 16th, the wind drops to 9 mph, which is a *light breeze*, but it’s still cross-onshore, so it’s only "fairly choppy" instead of a mess.

The last few days of the outlook, from August 18th to the 21st, the wind finally shifts to a true onshore direction. The swell drops a little, to 4ft to 5ft, and the period stretches to 8 or 9 seconds. The energy is still moderate (280 to 394). This is better, but onshore wind at a reef break still isn't ideal. The waves will be there, but they’ll be soft and won't have that classic, clean face you want.

Honestly, for the whole 16 days, there isn’t a single standout. The swell never stops, which is great for consistency, but the wind is the enemy here. If you’re desperate for a paddle, the best chance of something half-decent might be on the morning of Sunday, August 16th, when the wind is lightest, or the very end of the forecast when the period gets a little longer and the wind is onshore but lighter. But don’t expect perfection.

This is a spot that usually gets waves, but right now, the conditions are just making it a grind. Keep an eye on the forecasts, because this can flip.

Rusty.

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