El Agujero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s get straight into it. We’ve got a long stretch ahead, but it’s a tough one for El Agujero. The setup is almost always cross-onshore, and the swell is coming from the wrong direction for this reef. The optimum is a clean NNW, but we’re stuck with a persistent NNE to NE flow. This means the waves will be messy, choppy, and hard to love. The first real chance of anything rideable doesn’t pop up until the very end of the month, so we’re looking at a solid start with no real recommendations.

For the first week and a half, from Friday the 17th right through to the end of July, the wind is a constant problem. It’s either a moderate fresh cross-onshore breeze at 15 to 18 mph, or it’s directly onshore. The swell hangs around 4 ft to 7 ft, but it’s short-period stuff, mostly 6 to 8 seconds, coming from the NNE or NE. The combined energy is moderate for most of it, climbing to strong levels around the 20th and 21st with readings of 457 and 480, but it’s all for nothing with that wind. It’s a chop-fest.

The water temperature is about average for the time of year, no major anomalies to report. The reef will be exposed, but the quality is just not there.

There’s a slight shift in the pattern around the 28th of July. The swell bumps up to 8 ft, and the period starts to stretch out to 9 seconds, then 10 seconds by the 29th. The combined energy jumps to very strong, hitting 1317 on the 29th. The wind also shows a sign of backing off to a more moderate 12 mph, but it’s still onshore. This is big, powerful, but messy surf. It’s only for experienced surfers at this size, and the onshore wind will make it a battle.

The only glimmer of hope comes on Thursday the 30th of July. The morning session shows a marginal forecast with a 1 out of 10 score. The swell is 8 ft from the NNE with a 10-second period, and the wind is finally onshore but light at 12 mph. This is the only window where the conditions might be just about good enough for a session, but it’s still far from clean. The crowd potential is there, as El Agujero is a known spot, but with the conditions, it shouldn’t be packed.

After that, it drops back down. The rest of the period into early August is more of the same: cross-onshore winds, decreasing swell, and poor conditions. The bottom line is, this 16-day outlook is a write-off. The wind and swell direction are just not cooperating. It’s more of a kite-surfing setup than a paddle-surfing one for the most part. Don’t get your hopes up, but forecasts can change.

Rusty.

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