El Agujero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – looking at the 16-day window for El Agujero, it’s a tough one. There are no classic surfing windows to get excited about. The whole first run, right through to the 4th of August, is plagued by cross-onshore winds that are just wrecking the potential. The water temp is pretty average for this time of year, no real anomaly to speak of, so don't expect any surprises temperature-wise.

The combined swell energy starts off pretty weak, around the 120 mark, and builds into the moderate zone as we go, hitting 248 and 306 by the end of July and start of August, but it just doesn’t matter with that wind. The swell is coming from the north-northeast, which is okay for the reef here, but the period is short – 5 to 7 seconds – so it’s weak, windswell energy. You’re looking at lots of chop and close-outs. Swell heights are around 4 ft to 6 ft.

There’s a bit of a shift from the 2nd of August into the 3rd where the wind goes more straight onshore, but the swell is still small and weak. By the 4th of August, the combined energy is getting up to 390, but the wind stays a problem. This pattern just keeps repeating: we get pulses of swell up to about 6 ft to 6 ft, but it’s always spoiled by a moderate breeze or fresh breeze from the N or NNE.

Forget about the early days, honestly. The closest we get to any hope is right at the tail end, around the 10th and 11th of August. The swell picks up to 8 ft from the NNE, and the combined energy jumps to a strong 709. That’s proper power. But, and it’s a big but, the wind is still cross-on or onshore, and the period is only 8 seconds. For a reef break, that 8 ft is getting into expert territory. It’s going to be a big, messy, powerful wall of water – not a beginner's game, and likely more interesting for kite surfing than for clean paddle surfing. The crowd factor is listed as "often" here, so you won't be alone, but on a day like that, most folks will be battling the conditions.

If you absolutely have to get wet, the middle of the second week, around the 12th and 13th of August, the swell drops back to 6 ft to 7 ft, and the wind is consistently onshore, not cross. That might offer the most manageable, albeit still messy, ride. The combined energy is still solidly in the four-digit range (432 to 515), so there’s push.

Bottom line: This is a blank run. The area just isn't set up for clean surf in this forecast. We don’t have one standout day. It’s a waiting game. Forecasts can change, so don't give up entirely, but right now, I’d find another hobby for the next two weeks.

Rusty

Read more