El Agujero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – this outlook for El Agujero is a tough one. The whole 16-day stretch is a write-off for decent waves. Not a single session gets the nod. There’s simply no quality on offer, from now right through to the end of the period on the 21st of July.

We're looking at a solid two weeks plus of poor surf conditions. The wind is the biggest problem. For the entire run, it’s hammering in from the north-northeast or northeast, mostly side-onshore or straight onshore. That’s not what you want at a reef setup pointing northwest. It’s going to be choppy, messy, and blown out nearly every day.

Now, you see the swell size does pick up. From the 16th of July we see the average height climbing over 5 ft, and by the 18th, it’s pushing 7 ft. The combined energy jumps steadily from moderate (129) up to strong (645) by the 20th. The period stays short though, mostly 5 to 8 seconds, so it's just local wind slop. That swell direction is mostly NNE, coming right down the throat of that onshore wind, and almost never from the optimum NNW direction.

Even on the 19th and 20th of July when the wind goes to "on" for a full day, the swell is still close to 7 ft with an onshore wind. For an exposed, consistent reef, that spells messy, lumpy conditions. On the 16th and 17th, the swell is just over 5 ft, but still blown sideways by a steady 12-16 mph cross-onshore breeze.

Honestly, for a spot like this, the whole setup from the 16th onwards – strong wind, decent but sloppy swell, and a beach-and-reef setup – it’d be far more interesting for the kite-surfing crew than for paddle surfers. There’s just no window for a clean wave here. We’ll have to wait for a change in the pattern. Forecasts can shift, but for now, I’d leave the boards at home.

Rusty.

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