El Agujero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright folks, Rusty here. Let’s be straight with you. Looking at the next couple of weeks, the ocean is going to be working, but it’s not going to be giving us much to work with. The swell is there, but the wind just won’t play ball, and it’s going to leave things messy for a while.

We’re starting off flat-out poor. From Tuesday the 4th through the 6th, the wind is cross-on from the NE at 12 to 16 mph, and the waves are a jumbled, choppy 5ft to 6ft. It’s just messy. The swell energy is weak at 182, climbing to a moderate 394 by Thursday afternoon. You’re better off saving your energy.

Then, from Friday the 7th all the way through Tuesday the 11th, the wind swings around to be directly onshore. We get a bit more size, 6ft to 6ft, but with that onshore flow, it’s going to be a washout. The energy is moderate, bouncing between 288 and 438, but it doesn’t matter when it’s blown out. This stretch is a solid write-off.

The following week, from Wednesday the 12th through Tuesday the 19th, the wind goes back to cross-on, but the size starts to push up. We’re looking at 6ft to 8ft. The energy ramps up too, hitting a strong 713 by Saturday the 15th morning. But even with that power, the NE cross-on wind at 9 to 16 mph keeps everything chopped and ragged. The quality just isn't there.

The only real glimmer comes on Sunday the 16th. The wind finally drops to a gentler 9 mph cross-on breeze, and we’ve still got a solid 7ft of swell from the NNE with energy at 494. It’s the cleanest it’s going to get, but “cleanest” is relative. It’s still fairly choppy. Monday the 17th sees the swell back off to 5ft, with the energy dropping to 288.

Honestly, this whole 16-day window is a tough one. Every single forecast is marked as poor surf conditions. For the reef at El Agujero, it’s a consistent spot, but it's just not going to be worth it. The water is a warm 74°, which is about average for this time of year.

The second week, especially around the 14th, 15th, and 16th, has the most size and energy, but that promise is tainted by the cross-on wind. If we’re looking for a standout, it’s the morning of Sunday the 16th – the only time with a gentle breeze and a decent amount of swell. It’s not perfect, but it’s the only thing close to it. And with the size pushing past 7ft on the 14th and 15th, and over 8ft on the 15th, this is getting into territory that’s best left for the experienced crew. For a beach and reef setup with that kind of wind, it might honestly be a better day for the kite surfers than the paddle surfers.

So, keep your board in the car, but don't hold your breath. It's a long stretch of onshore and cross-onshore slop. The forecast can change, but as it stands, we're in for a grind.

Rusty.

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