El Agujero Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Oi, Rusty here. Gotta be straight with you – the outlook for the next 16 days is a tough one. We're looking at a long stretch of poor conditions at El Agujero, with no real standouts to get excited about. The wind is the main problem, keeping the ocean lumpy and choppy for the majority of the forecast.

Alright, let's start at the beginning. From Thursday the 23rd of July, we see a solid pulse of swell building, but it's a write-off. The water is sitting at 73°, which is about average for this time of year, but the wind is a stiff 19 mph from the north-northeast, smashing across the swell. The waves are around 6 ft to 8 ft (combined energy of 319 to 696), but it’s just a messy, cross-onshore mess. Not worth paddling out for.

This poor pattern continues right through the end of the month. Friday the 24th sees the swell push up to 7 ft (529 - 557) but with that same 19 mph cross-on wind, it's lumpy and ugly. Weekend mornings are no better; Saturday the 25th is the biggest of the run at 8 ft (697) but with 22 mph winds, it's howling. The wave period is short, around 7 to 8 seconds, which means weak, crumbly, blown-out waves. Honestly, with that much wind and swell, the set-up looks more interesting for kite surfing than paddle surfing.

The start of the new week offers a slight drop in wind speed, but it’s a minor change. Sunday the 26th and Monday the 27th still have moderate cross-onshore breezes, and the swell is all over the place, from 5 ft to 8 ft, but the quality is still described as "poor". The combined energy drops into the 200-300 range, showing the lack of power.

We get a bit of a reprieve from the wind around Tuesday the 28th of July, with the wind turning more onshore. The swell drops to 5 ft - 5 ft (221 - 263), but the wave period is still short at 8 seconds. It’s not great, but it’s the most "clean" the surf will look, even if the forecast still says "poor surf conditions". This continues through the 31st of July, with swell dropping to 4 ft - 5 ft.

Then we hit a real lull. From the 1st of August through to the 4th, the swell fades to a pathetic 2 ft - 4 ft with combined energy dropping to triple digits. The wind is light, but there’s simply no wave energy to work with.

A tiny pulse of life appears on Wednesday the 5th of August, with the swell picking up to 4 ft (194) from the north, with a slightly longer period of 9 seconds. Still, the wind is a gentle cross-offshore, so it’s not completely flat. But it’s still poor.

The final few days show a bit more size returning. Thursday the 6th of August sees 5 ft - 5 ft (258 - 348) from the north-northeast, and Friday the 7th of August builds to 7 ft - 7 ft (675 - 755). But the story is the same – moderate cross-onshore winds messing it all up. The period is short, 7-8 seconds, so it’s not going to have any grunt.

So, the honest truth: there are no good days to point to. It’s a blank run of poor surf conditions. That’s just how it goes sometimes in this area. Forecasts can change, but for now, I’d put the board away for a fortnight.

Rusty.

Read more