Crash Boat Surf Forecast and Surf Report

Alright, let’s be straight with you. The next couple of weeks are looking pretty gutless for most of the region. We’ve got a long stretch of tiny, weak surf and a lot of wind to deal with. The first real chance of anything worthwhile doesn’t even show up until the 13th, and even that’s a small blip. The run from now until then is a write-off, with only ankle-biters and blown-out lumps on offer. It’s the kind of spell where you’re better off doing a maintenance session on your board or sorting out your fin setup. The energy in the water is minimal, with the combined swell energy mostly sitting in the low single digits, like 2 or 3, which is as weak as it gets.

The first few days are just a tease. On the 4th, there’s a stormy vibe with a moderate offshore breeze, but no swell to speak of. The 5th and 6th bring tiny, short-period slop from the north and south, but it’s under 0.7ft and just not worth paddling out for. The conditions are clean, sure, but you can’t ride what isn’t there. This pattern of nothing continues through the 7th, 8th, and 9th, with the wind picking up out of the east-northeast, making things a bit blustery. The 9th afternoon has a fresh offshore breeze, but only a 0.3ft blip of swell. It’s all show, no go.

The middle of the week, the 10th, 11th, and 12th, remains desperate. We’re stuck with 0.3ft to 0.7ft of short-period south swell, and the energy is still in the low single digits. The wind is mostly offshore, keeping the surface clean, but the lack of any real push means it’s still not worth suiting up. The water temp at the first spot we’re looking at, Crash Boat, is sitting at 84°, which is about 1° warmer than the long-term average. So it’s a bit balmy, but that’s about the only thing that’s notable.

Now, here’s where things get a little more interesting. On the 13th, there’s a slight change. The morning is still poor, but the afternoon shows a new swell from the north with a period of 12 seconds. It’s still tiny at 0.3ft, but that longer period is a hint of something better to come. The energy reading bumps up to 6, which is still weak, but it’s the most we’ve seen. The wind is a fresh offshore, so it’ll be clean. Keep an eye on this.

The 14th and 15th are when the swell finally starts to show a pulse. The 14th afternoon has the wind cranking from the east-northeast at 28 mph, which is strong, but it’s cross-offshore. The swell is only 0.7ft from the south, but the energy is building, hitting 9 and then 10 on the 15th afternoon. This is the most push we’ve seen all week. It’s still small, but it’s a start. The 16th morning looks like the pick of the whole run. We get a 0.7ft south swell with a 10-second period and the energy finally breaks into double digits at 11. The wind is a gentle offshore breeze from the east-northeast, so it should be glassy. It’s not going to be big, but it might be the cleanest, most rideable wave of the entire window.

After that, the 17th and 18th see things fade back out. The swell drops off, the energy sinks back to the low single digits, and we’re back to square one. The 19th shows a little blip again, but nothing to get excited about.

So, what’s the honest call here? There’s really no standout day in this forecast. The best on offer is that Saturday morning on the 16th at Crash Boat. It’s a beach and reef setup that’s usually sheltered, but it’s also inconsistent, so you’ll be waiting for waves. The swell direction is from the south, which might not be the optimum west for this spot, but the clean conditions and the slightly longer period make it the least-bad option. The waves will be small, maybe ankle to knee-high, so it’s still a groveler’s session. Then the 14th and 15th afternoons have a bit more energy, but the strong wind might make it messy and more of a windsurfing or kite session than a pure paddle. With that much wind and a small, weak swell on a beach setup, it’ll likely be blown out and bumpy.

Honestly, for the next two weeks, you’re chasing shadows. The near-term is a washout, and the long-range promise for the 16th is just a glimpse of what could be. Forecasts can change, though, and with the water this warm, it doesn’t stay flat forever. Keep your board waxed and stay ready.

Rusty

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